SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
No Illinoisans on initial GOP target list

Wednesday, Jan 16, 2013

* Notice the absence of any Illinois Democrats on this list. From The Hill

Promising to “stay on offense” in 2014, National Republican Congressional Committee Executive Director Liesl Hickey is out with a memo arguing it’s in a strong position heading into this election cycle, and outlining seven early targets for the committee.

The targets all hail from GOP-leaning districts that the GOP has carried in the past three presidential elections: Reps. Ron Barber (D-Ariz.), John Barrow (D-Ga.), Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.), Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) and Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.).

The memo points out that Mitt Romney carried 227 districts while President Obama won 208, a statistic that illustrates how difficult it will be for Democrats to capture enough House seats to retake control of the upper chamber. Much of that advantage came from successful Republican redistricting efforts after the 2010 election.

“As a result of redistricting, which favored Republicans, and this well-executed [offensive] strategy — the House is well-aligned and firmly in GOP control,” Hickey writes. “The national map of competitive House races looks very different headed into 2014. Namely, it’s smaller and Republicans have the upper-hand.”

Democratic congressional candidates won about a million more votes than Republicans, but still lost the House. Redistricting went the other way for the GOP here in Illinois, however, and that early list is a sign that the national GOP accepts the reality.

* This is not to say that there won’t be any targeted races here. I assume that the Republicans will be going after Brad Schneider in the 10th CD, who beat freshman Republican Bob Dold by just a handful of votes. Congressman Bobby Schilling may run again after losing to Cheri Bustos by six and a half points. And Bill Enyart obviously needs to watch his voting record because his district is so conservative.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


25 Comments
  1. - western illinois - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:29 am:

    They may be trying to peel of votes from teh very few remaining conservadems. All but McIntyre won easily
    Obama won 208 districts and the dems now have 201 or 2 so are they making the case they should lose more seats?


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:32 am:

    Now the NRCC thinks the ILGOP and our Congressional chances are …Irrelevent! “Oh, Illinois! I thought you meant the Idaho GOP or Indiana GOP …Nah, I think we should hold out powder, but take their money at our Chicago fundraisers …”

    Yeah ILGOP! Your disaster of leadership knows no bounds … to mock.

    To be fair to the Post, the only Dem seats that the GOP can hope to get back are, indeed, Schneider and Bustos, and “that’s the list”.

    If, if, IF, Jason Plummer decides to be the Dan Seals of the ILGOP and Jason’s Dad raises his allowance or gives him a cooler job title, that is going to lead to Disaster. A nine point loss is getting waxed.


  3. - Will Caskey - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:36 am:

    That is extremely surprising. The FEC is testament that I am a fan of Cheri Bustos but I would not say she is in a strong position for the midterms. Maybe Schneider too but he probably has an easier time of it, his close win notwithstanding.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:39 am:

    Just to make even more clear, I think Schilling and Dold should be the opponents, they will have the best shots to win seats back, even though its a new district they have never won in, but they already have run in thos districts and have served, plus the built-in name ID from the last go.

    Anyone completely “new” against Bustos or Schnieder may have a more difficult time going against an incumbent, and with no trial run in that new district.


  5. - shore - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:40 am:

    I would be stunned if they compete in any of those districts, not because they’re not winnable-foster, schneider, and duckworth were awful candidates for different reasons. Dold’s house was in the southern end of the old district which is now 25 miles from the heart of the new district-a big distance in the suburbs.

    For 20 years the NRCC’s deal has been to lose suburban districts rep’d by republicans by very very close margins and then not compete for them the next cycle figuring that a) they’re too expensive b) that gop incumbent’s popularity was based on his personal qualities a challenger can’t represent c) it’s much easier and less expensive to run ads tying a southern/rural/conservative democrat to national democrats than it is to play defense in the chicago suburbs d)the party brand is so awful-which is true-that no matter the gop candidate, it can’t win barring a wave like the one kirk, walsh and dold got in 2010.


  6. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:42 am:

    Illinois is not a place to send GOP money to when they’ll be playing defense in 2014, and focusing on winning the Senate.

    Illinois is a GOP wasteland. Like pouring water in a dessert.


  7. - western illinois - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:48 am:

    I really did not think Bustos ran a very impressive campaign and she won easily . It is full of some of teh very few rural counties Obama won anywhere. I will say off year is a very different electorate.
    The dems had run some ads and the GOP must have decided it had to do something. The hurricane Sandy fight almost switched the US house. The remaning conservatives from the Northeast and Midwest are getting tired of the southern fried nonsense. Wait till Sandy Hook trutherism is brought up by some US house member
    In Illinois I am thinking March is going to become the real election


  8. - Larry Falbe - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:01 am:

    “The Dan Seals of the ILGOP.” heh. That’s not a title I’d wish on anybody. I miss beating up on Dan Seals. He was a lot more interesting than Schneider, at least.


  9. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:11 am:

    My expectation is that 10, 11, 13 and 17 will spend at least two years each under a Dem and a Republican during this map so I’d be shocked if those aren’t competitive races for the rest of the decade. Further the Republicans could get lucky in a non-pres year in 12 and they’d be wise to keep Duckworth busy at home instead of traveling the country helping other candidates.


  10. - Downstater - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:21 am:

    “If, if, IF, Jason Plummer decides to be the Dan Seals of the ILGOP and Jason’s Dad raises his allowance or gives him a cooler job title, that is going to lead to Disaster. A nine point loss is getting waxed.” Recent press release- Plummer appointed to board of directors of $1 billion regional bank. Dad was Chair of bank board.


  11. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:22 am:

    ===and Jason’s Dad raises his allowance ===

    Jason was just put on the board of directors at his father’s bank in Edwardsville.


  12. - MrJM - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:28 am:

    With the National Republican Congressional Committee off the board, this looks like a perfect opportunity for a little Tea Party money/effort to go a long way (towards further damaging the GOP brand in Illinois).

    – MrJM


  13. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:34 am:

    I’d imagine Dold could raise money to attempt to reclaim his seat in a non-presidential year.

    Schilling might have it a little tougher. Six-and-a-half points is not a small number for an incumbent to lose by.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:35 am:

    ===Jason was just put on the board of directors at his father’s bank in Edwardsville.===

    “Look, Board-Member people… I can do this real good. I mean, just last week, I got to be the ‘Banker’ when Dad and I played Monopoly and I only messed up 4 times which was so cool…So, Dad says I’m in and stuff, so is that cool?”

    When will Jason stop using his Dad as an HR Department? Honestly, seriously. Can Jason Plummer get a job without Jason’s Dad as the HR Department? It is NOW, more than ever, a relevent question, and his “appointment” proves once again, Jason … can’t

    Pathetic!


  15. - Kana - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:40 am:

    Note that all of the districts highlighted in this memo are “GOP-leaning districts that the GOP has carried in the past three presidential elections.” None of the IL districts fit that criteria and based on that would not be included.

    I’d be surprised if the national party put as many seats in play in IL as in 2012, but they’d get behind Dold or Schilling or a credible challenger to Enyart in an off-year (more cons.) election. Also like to point out that Hickey was an IL political operative prior to be in DC, so the IL seats will get the attention they deserve.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:10 am:

    Question: How many 30 year olds are on the Board of Directors at Billion Dollar Banks?

    I am looking forward to Jason to come back now … “I am now on the Board of Directors of a bank, creating jobs and helping businesses every day.”

    “At 30, did you apply?”

    “Dad said it was ‘cool’.”

    Jason will just never, ever learn.

    Please … run again!


  17. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:18 am:

    Dold tried to run as an Independent, but that didn’t work, too much Tea Party baggage. I suspect many former GOP districts will stay that way unless candidates willing to abandon the Tea Party run.


  18. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:38 am:

    It’s probably smart to focus more of their resources on guaranteeing their majority, than on targeting switches.


  19. - Conservative Republican - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:50 am:

    Schilling and Dold may have a good chance at a comeback. Dem votes tend to drop off significantly in the mid terms, making the races a much better bet than 2012.


  20. - shore - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 12:01 pm:

    Hickey was Kirk’s cos and ran his campaigns on and off for 10 years. She’s running the NRCC solely because of what she did working for him. They ran incredibly cautious, defensive, rose garden type campaigns. NRCC’s focus will be protecting the philly suburbs/nj/obama ca seats, saving freshmen with fat mouths from themselves, avoiding primaries like the castle-o’donnell fiasco on the senate side, and picking their spots. Majority parties first priority is protecting members and then member seats coming open. Last on that list are “expensive democrat leaning suburban seats in the president’s frontyard that will cost millions to win and millions to keep every cycle”.

    Seals, mocked here, ran a better campaign against kirk in 2006 than Alexi did in 2010 without any party support and was outside of quigley and rahm probably the best candidate Democrats have recruited to run for congress over the last 12 years. Goofy, but much savvier, smarter, and certainly more polished, than Bean, Enyart, bustos, duckworth, lipinski, halvorson. Had they taken him seriously in 2006 when they caught kirk sleeping, he would have won.


  21. - CU Voter - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 12:30 pm:

    Kana is right. This list comes from a formula.

    From a distance I see it this way. Schilling as a candidate would make Bustos a target. Anyone else, probably not. Dold, would be a major target. Any other white male, probably not. Enyart, probably a big target. Unless it’s Plummer.


  22. - McLeaniac - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 12:40 pm:

    I think the Dems could pick off Rodney Davis easily - all they need is a passable candidate that is not David Gill plus some Dem backing and Davis is GONE.


  23. - qcexaminer - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    Another thing to consider is that Cheri Bustos will actually have to vote over the next two years and not just parrot Dem talking points.

    At a recent press conference in the QCs, Cheri declined to state her opinion on the assault rifle ban. In the old 17th, this would have been a slam-dunk, but with the 17th now including parts of more liberal Peoria and Rockford, it’s gonna take the wisdom of Solomon to know how to appease the constituents of the 17th.

    Or maybe just vote “present”. lol

    Phil Hare lost his seat in part because he voted to the far left of the old 17th—he was more the congressman from San Francisco than the congressman from moderate Dem QCs. With this new area included, it will be fun to see how Cheri threads the needle—or doesn’t!


  24. - western illinois - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 6:06 pm:

    She can be as Liberal as Hare Its all urban Illinois plus Galesburg which voted for Mosley Braun. All those red counties south of Warren are gone. Warren did vote foor concealed carry but not by the landslide of the bulde counties. Ogle was 50-50. The rural areas went for Schilling and that is not enough but it could be closer in an off year


  25. - wishbone - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:47 pm:

    And gun control that focuses on the law abiding rather than the mentally ill mass killers will wash these Blue Dog Democrats away. Cuomo’s talk of confiscating guns will seal it. My fellow Democrats learned nothing from 1994.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Rauner announces new appointments
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Unemployment rate falls again, IDES not impressed
* "The Governor’s Axe"
* *** UPDATED x1 - Former aide says report coming *** Quinn shirked final constitutional duty
* Question of the day
* Umm... Huh?
* Unclear on the concept
* Rauner roundup
* Another possible Kirk foe emerges
* *** UPDATED x2 - ACLU responds *** Calm down
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Samsung developing a wearable sensor to detect strokes
        * Windows Holographic, BlackBerry’s app entitlement, hackers hacking your calls | Pocketnow Weekly 132
        * California DMV changes course, reverses registration policy change for rideshare drivers
        * The Week in iPad Cases: Hard Candy's shock-absorbing case, the latest collection from Rebecca Minkoff, and more
        * Amazon offers discounted Prime membership to celebrate Golden Globe win
        * Goal posts of the imagination: Innovation means shipping
        * HTC Desire EYE review rebuttal: bold and powerful, with a selfie on top

        * Apple Shipped 73 Million iPhones in Q4, Apple Watch To Debut in March (Report)
        * Half of U.S. Phone Activations in the Fourth Quarter Were iPhones (Report)
        * Samsung Galaxy E7 May Launch In China Soon
        * Asia’s Largest Apple Store Opens Up In Hangzhou, China
        * Motorola Offering 2 Free Shells With Moto E Purchase
        * Moto 360 Coming To Videotron in Canada for $279
        * Bluesmart Connected Suitcase Raises $2 Million In Funding

        * Emptying the SoxFest notebook
        * White Sox honor, remember Mr. Cub at SoxFest
        * Flowers: 'My job to lose' behind plate for White Sox
        * White Sox add baserunning legend Coleman to staff
        * Rick Hahn, Conquering Hero
        * Memories of '05 championship rekindled at SoxFest
        * Back at home, Samardzija ready to get down to business

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Erickson: Rauner can't cut his way out of state.....
        * Tom Kacich: Plenty of reform bills already file.....
        * Rauner can't cut his way out of state's financi.....
        * Editorial: Chicago politicians need to visit Ce.....
        * Executive Mansion: Home or political tool?..
        * Mayor’s opponents lash out on issues, in countd.....
        * Immigrant driver's licenses top 85,000..
        * For Rauner, it's essential that every dollar ma.....
        * Behavior program showing positive results..
        * Immigrant driver's license program marks first .....


        * Chicago's mayoral candidates address women's issues at forum
        * Chicago mayoral candidates discuss elected school board
        * Ex-Major League Baseball player Ted Lilly accused of fraud
        * 'Deadheads' ask to camp out during band's Chicago concerts
        * Logan County rejects wind farm plan
        * Authorities say 1 dead in suburban Chicago house fire
        * Proposed Illinois legislation would ban powdered alcohol
        * Banks remembered as ambassador of baseball and Chicago
        * Rose, Butler score 20 each as Bulls top Mavericks 102-98
        * Illinois governor makes several cabinet appointments

        * Statehouse Insider: Gov. Rauner sounding a lot like primary candidate Rauner
        * Veterans voice opinions about future of Oak Ridge war memorial site
        * 85,000 temporary driver's licenses issued to immigrants
        * Proposed Illinois legislation would ban powdered alcohol
        * Quinn leaves office without writing final statement
        * AG Madigan blocks Lottery termination agreement
        * Number of Illinois households on food stamps still rising
        * Numbers of Illinois households on food stamps still rising
        * U of I president concerned about future of higher ed
        * Rauner previews 1st-year priorities: Cut taxes, Medicaid

        * 'Mr. Cub' Ernie Banks dies at 83
        * How CME is looking to buy its way into foreign markets
        * Need to furnish your new office? Look no further
        * Hospitals full of empty beds
        * This hospital system plans radical surgery to solve its vacancy problem


          * Woman hurt after car slams into bus stop, rolls over on Northwest Side
          * 4 cops injured after 2 squad cars collide in Little Village
          * 2 hurt in crash on Lake Shore Drive
          * Man fatally shot in Gary
          * 7 hurt in shootings Saturday
          * No bombs on planes in Atlanta after threats, which prompt response by Chicago police
          * Mother, daughter charged with attacking school officials
          * Man charged with assaulting boy, 10
          * Grieving fans won't find Banks statue at Wrigley; it's being restored
          * At Wrigley, fans remember how Mr. Cub touched their lives


          * Study projects Illinois deficit growing to $14 billion by 2026
          * Chicago Cubs legend Ernie Banks, 1st black player in team history, dies
          * M.E.R.C.Y. Celebrates 15 Years Amid Financial Challenge
          * Springfield Airport Will Make Another Attempt To Add Gambling
          * Potential Pension Case Holdup
          * Listen to State Week - January 23, 2015
          * Art Beat: Pirates, Local Tunes & Movies Galore
          * Speaker Madigan: How Can Illinois Prevent A Sandy Hook?
          * Frerichs Keeping Rutherford Investigation Under Wraps
          * Collecting On Line Sales Tax & A Springfield Manufacturer Expands On WUIS/SJR Business Report


          * Our Opinion: Vision should be a key theme in Springfield mayor's race
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Campaign contribution gets them talking in Ward 7
          * Angie Muhs: SJ-R, WMAY want to involve readers in Springfield primary
          * Andy Shaw: Settle in for a dramatic first act at the Illinois Capitol
          * Quote of the Day: Sunday, Jan. 25, 2015
          * Statehouse Insider: Gov. Rauner sounding a lot like primary candidate Rauner
          * Statehouse Insider: Gov. Rauner sounding a lot like primary candidate Rauner
          * Veterans voice opinions about future of Oak Ridge war memorial site
          * 85,000 temporary driver's licenses issued to immigrants
          * Proposed Illinois legislation would ban powdered alcohol


          * Books always trump movies
          * Changes in coal regulations may be on tap
          * Rauner can't cut his way out of state's financial mess
          * Look back: Highlights from Melissa Merli on the week that was
          * Gratitude for 'Charlie' column
          * For the retirees, Jan. 25-Feb. 1, 2015
          * Would 3 years of high school work?
          * Readers warned about bogus renewals
          * Getting Personal: Brian Moody
          * Flick: Lucca, Beningo's ... Mother Murphy's


          * AFC rejects Iran's protest over Asian Cup quarterfinal
          * Central African Republic: Militia kidnaps sports minister
          * Bookmaker-funded Ginola campaign could breach FIFA rules
          * French arrests beg question: Is free speech for all?
          * Security tightened on anniversary of Egypt's 2011 uprising

          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement Against the ...
          * Renewed Voting Rights effort urged - San D...
          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement on Martin Lu...
          * Rep. Schakowsky Introduces Bill to Impose ...
          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement in Support o...
          * Rep. Jan Schakowsky Statement in Oppositio...
          * House votes to undo Obama immigration acti...
          * Univision's Jorge Ramos Goes “Full Gutierr...
          * Rep. Schakowsky Introduces Bill to Establi...
          * Hotel Industry Praises House Passage of 40...

          * Feinstein, Durbin, Gillibrand Applaud New ......
          * GOP drops ‘civil rights and human rights’ ......
          * Obama Endorses Emanuel in Forthcoming Radi......
          * Senate Subcommittee Nixes ‘Civil Rights an......

          * Playing politics with climate change in th......
          * Ex-Obama aide says president not tough eno......
          * 'Likud politicians instructed to emphasize......

          * John Dillon: 2015: The more things change.
          * Sunday morning in Florida.
          * Mailer In the 6th Ward Aldermanic Race
          * State Lawmaker Proposes Red Light Camera Ban
          * We’ve moved!
          * In The Lyons Of Fire
          * BGA Backs New State Disclosure Effort
          * Budget Crisis Task Force Examines Illinois’ Debt Woes
          * To Cut Costs, Suburbs Eye Police Dept. Merger
          * State’s High Court Hears IG’s Case


          * Rauner announces “Turnaround Team” - Stellar team to help turn Illinois around
          * Commerce Department to Review Proposals for Enterprise Zones - Program Promotes Job Growth in Communities Across the State
          * Governor Rauner signs Executive Order for Minority and Veteran Empowerment
          * Governor Rauner Announces Second Round of Appointments
          * Representative Duckworth, US Army Iraq Veteran Honored With The Abraham Lincoln Veteran Champion Award




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller