SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Voters behaving oddly

Monday, Mar 4, 2013

* Sometimes, voters are strange

Webb said he voted for Halvorson, but the gun issue wasn’t the dominant one for him.

“She graduated from Bloom High School, and so did I,” Webb said, chuckling.

Webb’s wife said, “He made me come out and vote, too.”

When I asked her why she felt it was important, the answer took me by surprise.

“Because I’m voting against (Illinois House Speaker) Michael Madigan. I want to toss all the Madigan people out of office,” Mrs. Webb said.

So who was the anti-Madigan person she supported in the congressional race?

“To tell you the truth, I don’t remember who I voted for,” she replied.

“Fire Madigan” fails again?

* And

A man showed up at the Beckman Park polling place in Kankakee last Tuesday intending to vote in the primary election.

But he became irate upon learning he would have to choose either a Republican or Democratic party ballot, and he left without voting.

Understandable that he didn’t want to disclose his party affiliation, but that’s been the law of the land for 40 years or more here. Must’ve been his first rodeo. And it’s also a reason why some people won’t cross over to vote for another party’s candidate, even if they believe in that candidate’s agenda.

* Meanwhile, Robin Kelly’s pollster penned an op-ed

In January, we discovered that only 17 percent of likely voters had a favorable impression of the NRA, while 63 percent had an unfavorable impression of the group. Negative feelings towards the NRA outweighed positive ones among practically every demographic and regional bloc. Even self-described conservatives gave the NRA bad marks.

For several weeks, we hounded our opponents to release their NRA questionnaires. We sent seven pieces of mail to likely voters establishing Kelly’s bona fides on fighting gun violence and contrasting her record with her opponents. The race began to change dramatically.

By early February, Kelly nearly doubled her vote share from four weeks earlier. She surged into first place, leaping from 15 percent of the vote to 26 percent. Among the voters in our mail universe, Kelly’s vote share was a commanding 40 percent. Independence PAC had only been on the air for less than a week at that point and their ad only mentioned former Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson, but Kelly’s favorability was quickly rising while Halvorson’s standing was in a free fall.

In the ensuing weeks, the debate over gun violence continued to dominate the campaign. Kelly’s message resonated with voters, leading to 52 percent of the vote in a 16-candidate field.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


17 Comments
  1. - 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:01 pm:

    The dynamics of this race were shaped several years before. Both Halvorsen and Hutchinson were elected to the state senate in a district that stretched into rural areas. Doing what good legislators do, they found common ground with those voters who support gun rights, and who mainly lived in the more rural parts of their district.

    Then they ran for Congress in a larger district that was more heavily suburban and urban than the senate district and the gun issue became an albatross around their necks.

    It’s a cautionary tale about being punished for doing the right thing for the right reasons. What works for a state senate candidate ends up placing a low ceiling on one’s political ambitions.

    I’d hope the moral to the story is for legislators to remain consistent and avoid pandering, but I think this lesson will be lost on others who find it easier to blame Mayor Bloomberg than to understand how district politics works.


  2. - Precinct Captain - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:10 pm:

    Some voters are dumb? Who knew?

    As for analysis of the race, 47th has it down, but I’d like to add that Halvorson ran an atrocious campaign from top to bottom. Her only strategy was to have every black politician in the district running against each other so that a 300 vote precinct in Kankakee that broke huge her way would matter.


  3. - ChicagoModerate - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:11 pm:

    The Kelly campaign used a basic political tactic, define them before they can define you. They saw the only issue that separated the three women frontrunners in this campaign were guns and the NRA. Once that was found, they were unrelenting. Halvorson wanted to run a campaign on the cheap and it showed. At the very least she should have dumped all her money into field in the white areas to have as many people at the polls to be able to recitify issues like the one stayed above. The Bloomberg claim is just loser talk and no one likes a sore loser.


  4. - Cincinnatus - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:11 pm:

    Rich said,

    “‘Fire Madigan’ fails again?”

    Since this was the Democrat primary, it seems to be a bi-partisan effort…


  5. - Fred's Mustache - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:15 pm:

    === “Because I’m voting against (Illinois House Speaker) Michael Madigan. I want to toss all the Madigan people out of office,” Mrs. Webb said. ===

    So now the Speaker controls Congress too? People need to get a clue.


  6. - Frank - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:18 pm:

    When this field first took shape I figured Halverson would win with 25 percent of the vote. That’s what she got, but it wasn’t enough because the field thinned before election day.

    Trotter’s trouble was a stroke of good luck for Robin Kelly and I’m not sure how they got Napoleon Harris out of the race, but the gun issue did effectively stop Toi Hutchinson’s campaign in its tracks. Those three dropping out of the race rendered Halverson’s 25 percent meaniless.

    Give the Kelly folks credit for recognizing the hot issues and doubling down on it. She immediately branded herself as the anti-gun candidate and the Bloomberg money came her way.


  7. - Sideliner - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:31 pm:

    Bloomberg spent an impressive amount of money for a chair at Madigan’s table.


  8. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:38 pm:

    ===but it wasn’t enough because the field thinned before election day===

    Maybe, but don’t put too much faith in what ifs on this topic.

    Remember, Kelly won Beales’ 9th Ward.


  9. - Just Observing - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:44 pm:

    The voters quoted above are further evidence that encouraging everyone to exercise their right to vote is not necessarily a good thing.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:56 pm:

    ===Remember, Kelly won Beales’ 9th Ward.===

    That is the “rub” for me when anyone goes down and breaks this rac out with, “If ‘X’ was out” or “Had ‘X’ stayed in…”

    Kelly had 52%, won everywhere, and her NRA issue resonated so well, (See: Money, Ads, repeat) the rescipe of a different dynamic, this time, makes that “soup” not a different “soup” but “salad”.

    Hey ILGOP, congrats! “Fire Madigan” is sweeping … the congressional races?

    You should call that voter … maybe?


  11. - Cheryl44 - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 1:02 pm:

    And people routinely vote against their own interests. What’s new?


  12. - Wensicia - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 1:10 pm:

    It’s scary when people admit they don’t know who they’re voting for. It’s worse when they claim the person they’re voting against has no relationship to the contest or office up for vote.


  13. - Endangered Moderate Species - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 2:27 pm:

    I am pro-gun (Not pro NRA), but I felt Kelly’s team ran a textbook campaign.

    They found their strength (or the opponents weakness) and they never let off the pedal.

    Kudo’s to them for attracting the Bloomberg money.

    Kelly’s team played a great hand, especially since they didn’t receive aces for hole cards.


  14. - VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    According to Kelly’s pollster, their entire campaign was based on an issue they believed they could exploit for politics only. Kelly proposed solutions she knew couldn’t pass Congress and weren’t solutions at all, but she could win the election with.

    She played voters as fools, and was rewarded for it.

    We can’t expect good government when the politics used to get into office are so cynical, disingenuous, and fraudulent.


  15. - Pot calling kettle - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 3:16 pm:

    ==She played voters as fools, and was rewarded for it.==

    I think that’s a bit harsh. In a campaign a short as this one was, there was no time craft a message with any sort of complexity nor to develop a personal story that would appeal to voters. Instead, the Kelly campaign took an issue that was already in the news (due to the mass shootings, Chicago’s gun death spike, and the CC ruling and debate) and used it as a vehicle. At the same time, Bloomberg was looking for a place to flex his muscle and it was the same issue.

    I would characterize this as the Kelly campaign identifying where the voters’ attention was directed and jumping on the issue in a way that showed Kelly’s alignment with the voters.


  16. - One to the Dome - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 4:08 pm:

    Rich. Beale losing his own ward is no suprise. He our has not supported others and they still won.. JJJ for example. He was running a old school campaign in a new school world… Truth is most voters didn’t care based on low turn out and 2 million from New York mayor buys a lot of name to the voters that showed up. Taking nothing away from Kelly, but without the front money defining Debbie and Toi, she would have had a big hill to climb


  17. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 5:22 pm:

    ===He was running a old school campaign in a new school world===

    I’m not sure I’d call that “old school.” Old school campaigns drag people to the polls if they have to. Beale? Not so much.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* Rauner's new favorite word
* A violence prevention program that seems to work?
* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Rauner to hold press conference with mayors
* Today's quotable
* More money isn't everything
* Crain's: "By nearly every measure, the state is worse off since Rauner took office"
* More bad news
* This Is Illinois
* Duckworth case settled for fees, costs
* *** UPDATED x1 *** A good idea, just don't over-promise
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* HTC VR business confirmed to get spun off after months of denial
* What may be Le Max 2 Pro gets leaked with dual-camera ports, Snapdragon talk
* Boon + Gable closes on $2.5 million for its in-home stylist and shopping service
* Facebook launches human-curated Featured Events list
* Leet debuts a simple app for sharing your best gameplay highlights
* T-Mobile follows suit with Marshmallow update for Samsung Galaxy Note 4
* Twitter copies Snapchat, will bring daily Stickers to your social media photos

* Podcast: Chicago White Sox poised for a run
* White Sox Minor League Update: June 26-July 2
* Less than 4 days left to cast your All-Star vote
* 5 reasons not to count out the White Sox
* Fulmer, Hawkins among top prospect performers Sunday
* Smooth sailing for Sale in MLB-best 13th win
* Sales pitch: Ventura calls ace best in the AL

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Rauner: Democrats Are Agreed on Partial-Year Bu.....
* Rauner: Democrats are agreed on partial-year bu.....
* Question of the day - The Capitol Fax Blog (blog)..
* Illinois Medical Marijuana Director Resigns - W.....
* Illinois medical marijuana director resigns - F.....
* Illinois medical marijuana director resigns; fo.....
* Illinois medical marijuana director resigns - Q.....
* Illinois medical cannabis program director resi.....
* Illinois medical marijuana director resigns - K.....
* Rauner: Democrats are agreed on partial-year bu.....


* Rauner: Democrats are agreed on partial-year budget plan
* Off-duty Cook County deputy sheriff shoots, injures 2
* Activists push for stricter laws in wake of Hastert case
* $2B in Illinois road projects threatened by stalemate
* Economic woes cause drop in number of Illinois boaters
* Rauner signs ID law making Illinois comply with federal law
* Illinois police sue town, claim body cameras record nonstop
* Study: Rotting trees caused mysterious holes in huge dunes
* 1 dead, 1 injured after boats crash on Rock River
* US Rep. Duckworth settles workplace retaliation lawsuit

* Rauner says no bailout for Chicago schools as part of budget agreement
* Illinois women hit hard by state budget impasse
* Stalemate threatens $2B in road projects
* Economic woes cause drop in number of boaters
* Chicago school money seen as potential deal-killer
* Chicago school money seen as potential state budget deal-killer
* Survey: Nearly 1 million human service clients affected by budget impasse
* Illinois lawmakers to reconvene Wednesday as budget deadline nears
* Illinois State Museum given path to accreditation
* Illinois insurance co-op sues feds over health law payments

* Check in to these hotels for 'Hamilton' tickets
* It's OK to talk about gut health now, and that's good for nonprofits
* Brexit fallout hits U.S. stocks, pound again
* Portion of Lakefront Trail to be resurfaced over summer
* Who's sitting in Chicago's cushiest board seats?


* Veteran Peralta to join struggling Cubs bullpen
* Mayor on Lucas flub: ‘Welcome to the most important parking lot’
* Fred Hoiberg introduces his rookie, but talks Jimmy Butler
* Pope Francis says Christians should apologize to gay people
* Starved Rock State Park: Fourth of July heads up
* Lionel Messi says he’s done with Argentina, but don’t believe it
* Tuesday Letters: Fed-up taxpayers defeated Lucas Museum
* Pepsi to reintroduce aspartame in new diet beverage
* Woodstock gas station robbed at gunpoint
* Baby steps: White Sox turn corner with two straight series wins


* 2 shot by Cook County sheriff's deputy in Marquette Park
* Chipotle launches loyalty program to get more customers - and data
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 6/27/16
* Physician pleads not guilty to stealing NorthShore medical equipment
* Texas mom killed by police after she shot two daughters to death, police say
* 'Grace Without God' explores life in America without religion
* Divvy bikes launching in Oak Park
* Cubs option Gerardo Concepcion, call up Joel Peralta
* U.S. stocks open lower as markets continue to react to Brexit
* Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren meet for 1st campaign event


* Rauner says no bailout for Chicago schools as part of budget agreement
* David M. Gerlach: College students are collateral damage in Illinois politics
* Illinois women hit hard by state budget impasse
* Stalemate threatens $2B in road projects
* Economic woes cause drop in number of boaters
* Chicago school money seen as potential deal-killer
* Chicago school money seen as potential state budget deal-killer
* Angie Muhs: The threshold for national news on our front page
* Their View: Separation of powers prevails
* Statehouse Insider: Lawmakers coming back to Springfield? We're saved


* UPDATE: Former Illini basketball player due in court Wednesday
* Video: Where Am I? June 27, 2016
* Where Am I? June 27, 2016
* 06-27-16 Penny for Your Thoughts
* Second man arrested, on release from prison, in fatal Danville shooting
* Iroquois County crash kills Watseka man
* Cubbie Conversation: June 27, 2016
* Street closures listing
* PODCAST: Central Illinois Business 6-25-16
* Activists push for stricter laws in wake of Hastert case


* Heroes Like Haley fundraiser helps pediatric cancer patients
* Justin Timberlake apologizes for tweet after backlash
* Bicyclist injured after being hit by vehicle in Arlington Heights
* Cuneo mansion's 100th anniversary arrives without fanfare amid repair effort
* Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion clinic rules

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Illinois to get $17 million for HIV assist......

* Vulnerable GOP Senator Sides With Pro-Abor......
* Vulnerable GOP Senator Praises Supreme Cou......
* Republican Sen. Kirk Praises SCOTUS Aborti......
* GOP senator boasts about not supporting Do......

* Random thoughts. Making the U.K. great again.
* Six buildings they should also not build on the Chicago Lakefront.
* Illinois Lawmakers To Reconvene Wednesday As Budget Impasse Nears One-Year Mark
* Illinois Expands Reach Of Summer Meal Programs, But 686,000 Kids Still Missing Out
* Berg: AFSCME First. Prisoners be damned.
* Harvard Law Professor to Conservatives You’re Losers Live With It
* Kirk uses terrorist tragedy to crusade against citizen rights
* Harvard Law Professor to Conservatives: You’re Losers. Live With It.
* Schakowsky breaks House ethics rules by raising funds during sit-in
* Arlington Heights' 8th grade Trump impersonator makes appearance on Jimmy Fallon


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller