SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Voters behaving oddly

Monday, Mar 4, 2013

* Sometimes, voters are strange

Webb said he voted for Halvorson, but the gun issue wasn’t the dominant one for him.

“She graduated from Bloom High School, and so did I,” Webb said, chuckling.

Webb’s wife said, “He made me come out and vote, too.”

When I asked her why she felt it was important, the answer took me by surprise.

“Because I’m voting against (Illinois House Speaker) Michael Madigan. I want to toss all the Madigan people out of office,” Mrs. Webb said.

So who was the anti-Madigan person she supported in the congressional race?

“To tell you the truth, I don’t remember who I voted for,” she replied.

“Fire Madigan” fails again?

* And

A man showed up at the Beckman Park polling place in Kankakee last Tuesday intending to vote in the primary election.

But he became irate upon learning he would have to choose either a Republican or Democratic party ballot, and he left without voting.

Understandable that he didn’t want to disclose his party affiliation, but that’s been the law of the land for 40 years or more here. Must’ve been his first rodeo. And it’s also a reason why some people won’t cross over to vote for another party’s candidate, even if they believe in that candidate’s agenda.

* Meanwhile, Robin Kelly’s pollster penned an op-ed

In January, we discovered that only 17 percent of likely voters had a favorable impression of the NRA, while 63 percent had an unfavorable impression of the group. Negative feelings towards the NRA outweighed positive ones among practically every demographic and regional bloc. Even self-described conservatives gave the NRA bad marks.

For several weeks, we hounded our opponents to release their NRA questionnaires. We sent seven pieces of mail to likely voters establishing Kelly’s bona fides on fighting gun violence and contrasting her record with her opponents. The race began to change dramatically.

By early February, Kelly nearly doubled her vote share from four weeks earlier. She surged into first place, leaping from 15 percent of the vote to 26 percent. Among the voters in our mail universe, Kelly’s vote share was a commanding 40 percent. Independence PAC had only been on the air for less than a week at that point and their ad only mentioned former Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson, but Kelly’s favorability was quickly rising while Halvorson’s standing was in a free fall.

In the ensuing weeks, the debate over gun violence continued to dominate the campaign. Kelly’s message resonated with voters, leading to 52 percent of the vote in a 16-candidate field.


- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:01 pm:

    The dynamics of this race were shaped several years before. Both Halvorsen and Hutchinson were elected to the state senate in a district that stretched into rural areas. Doing what good legislators do, they found common ground with those voters who support gun rights, and who mainly lived in the more rural parts of their district.

    Then they ran for Congress in a larger district that was more heavily suburban and urban than the senate district and the gun issue became an albatross around their necks.

    It’s a cautionary tale about being punished for doing the right thing for the right reasons. What works for a state senate candidate ends up placing a low ceiling on one’s political ambitions.

    I’d hope the moral to the story is for legislators to remain consistent and avoid pandering, but I think this lesson will be lost on others who find it easier to blame Mayor Bloomberg than to understand how district politics works.

  2. - Precinct Captain - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:10 pm:

    Some voters are dumb? Who knew?

    As for analysis of the race, 47th has it down, but I’d like to add that Halvorson ran an atrocious campaign from top to bottom. Her only strategy was to have every black politician in the district running against each other so that a 300 vote precinct in Kankakee that broke huge her way would matter.

  3. - ChicagoModerate - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:11 pm:

    The Kelly campaign used a basic political tactic, define them before they can define you. They saw the only issue that separated the three women frontrunners in this campaign were guns and the NRA. Once that was found, they were unrelenting. Halvorson wanted to run a campaign on the cheap and it showed. At the very least she should have dumped all her money into field in the white areas to have as many people at the polls to be able to recitify issues like the one stayed above. The Bloomberg claim is just loser talk and no one likes a sore loser.

  4. - Cincinnatus - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:11 pm:

    Rich said,

    “‘Fire Madigan’ fails again?”

    Since this was the Democrat primary, it seems to be a bi-partisan effort…

  5. - Fred's Mustache - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:15 pm:

    === “Because I’m voting against (Illinois House Speaker) Michael Madigan. I want to toss all the Madigan people out of office,” Mrs. Webb said. ===

    So now the Speaker controls Congress too? People need to get a clue.

  6. - Frank - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:18 pm:

    When this field first took shape I figured Halverson would win with 25 percent of the vote. That’s what she got, but it wasn’t enough because the field thinned before election day.

    Trotter’s trouble was a stroke of good luck for Robin Kelly and I’m not sure how they got Napoleon Harris out of the race, but the gun issue did effectively stop Toi Hutchinson’s campaign in its tracks. Those three dropping out of the race rendered Halverson’s 25 percent meaniless.

    Give the Kelly folks credit for recognizing the hot issues and doubling down on it. She immediately branded herself as the anti-gun candidate and the Bloomberg money came her way.

  7. - Sideliner - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:31 pm:

    Bloomberg spent an impressive amount of money for a chair at Madigan’s table.

  8. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:38 pm:

    ===but it wasn’t enough because the field thinned before election day===

    Maybe, but don’t put too much faith in what ifs on this topic.

    Remember, Kelly won Beales’ 9th Ward.

  9. - Just Observing - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:44 pm:

    The voters quoted above are further evidence that encouraging everyone to exercise their right to vote is not necessarily a good thing.

  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 12:56 pm:

    ===Remember, Kelly won Beales’ 9th Ward.===

    That is the “rub” for me when anyone goes down and breaks this rac out with, “If ‘X’ was out” or “Had ‘X’ stayed in…”

    Kelly had 52%, won everywhere, and her NRA issue resonated so well, (See: Money, Ads, repeat) the rescipe of a different dynamic, this time, makes that “soup” not a different “soup” but “salad”.

    Hey ILGOP, congrats! “Fire Madigan” is sweeping … the congressional races?

    You should call that voter … maybe?

  11. - Cheryl44 - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 1:02 pm:

    And people routinely vote against their own interests. What’s new?

  12. - Wensicia - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 1:10 pm:

    It’s scary when people admit they don’t know who they’re voting for. It’s worse when they claim the person they’re voting against has no relationship to the contest or office up for vote.

  13. - Endangered Moderate Species - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 2:27 pm:

    I am pro-gun (Not pro NRA), but I felt Kelly’s team ran a textbook campaign.

    They found their strength (or the opponents weakness) and they never let off the pedal.

    Kudo’s to them for attracting the Bloomberg money.

    Kelly’s team played a great hand, especially since they didn’t receive aces for hole cards.

  14. - VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    According to Kelly’s pollster, their entire campaign was based on an issue they believed they could exploit for politics only. Kelly proposed solutions she knew couldn’t pass Congress and weren’t solutions at all, but she could win the election with.

    She played voters as fools, and was rewarded for it.

    We can’t expect good government when the politics used to get into office are so cynical, disingenuous, and fraudulent.

  15. - Pot calling kettle - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 3:16 pm:

    ==She played voters as fools, and was rewarded for it.==

    I think that’s a bit harsh. In a campaign a short as this one was, there was no time craft a message with any sort of complexity nor to develop a personal story that would appeal to voters. Instead, the Kelly campaign took an issue that was already in the news (due to the mass shootings, Chicago’s gun death spike, and the CC ruling and debate) and used it as a vehicle. At the same time, Bloomberg was looking for a place to flex his muscle and it was the same issue.

    I would characterize this as the Kelly campaign identifying where the voters’ attention was directed and jumping on the issue in a way that showed Kelly’s alignment with the voters.

  16. - One to the Dome - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 4:08 pm:

    Rich. Beale losing his own ward is no suprise. He our has not supported others and they still won.. JJJ for example. He was running a old school campaign in a new school world… Truth is most voters didn’t care based on low turn out and 2 million from New York mayor buys a lot of name to the voters that showed up. Taking nothing away from Kelly, but without the front money defining Debbie and Toi, she would have had a big hill to climb

  17. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 4, 13 @ 5:22 pm:

    ===He was running a old school campaign in a new school world===

    I’m not sure I’d call that “old school.” Old school campaigns drag people to the polls if they have to. Beale? Not so much.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Happy Thanksgiving!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Five unanswered questions
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Question of the day
* Caption contest!
* Crossing the line
* Moody's warns Illinois
* The Credit Union Difference
* *** UPDATED x1 - Franks responds *** Uh-oh
* Then and now
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Talk Android Apps of the Week: November 28, 2015
* Sony Xperia Z5 Premium is now for sale on Bell Canada
* Li-Fi Probably Won’t Be The New Wi-Fi For Most People
* Mid-range Lenovo K32c36 gets the go ahead from TENAA
* iPhone mini, Galaxy Marshmallow updates comments & more – Pocketnow Daily Recap
* Samsung’s new Exynos 8890 SoC tops all benchmark results on AnTuTu
* Fossil Q Founder smartwatch listed as ‘coming soon’ on the Google Store

* Detroit Tigers make AL Central's first big splash with Jordan Zimme...
* South Side Sox' SB Nation MLB Awards voting results
* Starting Pitcher Rankings: Chris Sale and Jose Quintana maintain st...
* Scouting profile: Adam Engel
* Alex Avila will try to shed limitations with White Sox
* White Sox program provides kids real chance
* Johnson solid candidate for White Sox rotation


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* Task force looks to shrink Illinois government .....
* Kasich opposes Syrian refugees in US - TV Newsroom..
* Task Force Looks to Shrink Illinois Government .....

* Report: SAFB considered for new spy agency office since 2005
* Chicago announces expansion of police body-camera program
* No notable delays for holiday travelers at Chicago airports
* Closer Look: Task force looks to shrink Illinois government
* EXCHANGE: Joliet educators work with Hispanic families
* EXCHANGE: Chaplains offer support to terminally ill
* Grant supports Alzheimer's research by Peoria professor
* Rockford-based waste services company sold to Texas firm
* 3 teens killed in northern Illinois crash
* Springfield micro-lending fund gives $120K in 1st 2 months

* 'Pot doctors' pushing boundaries in Illinois, other states
* Burger King manager: Police erased video of Chicago shooting
* Local free community college plans may be template for U.S.
* Rauner faces challenges in move to block refugees
* Vendor Payment Program suspended due to budget impasse
* Rauner pardons man found innocent of 1999 attack
* Springfield jobless rate falls again, to 5.1 percent
* Springfield police chief sees problems with body cam law
* Lawsuit challenges Illinois ban on marijuana campaign money
* Number of Illinois inmates released on parole climbing

* Tribune newspapers likely to be sold off, Murdoch says
* How a big deal is changing Chicago's hotel market
* Crain's names Danielle Narcisse copy chief
* What's new at Roti? Its name and a national ambition
* State's job woes start on the factory floor

* Niklas Hjalmarsson skates swiftly and carries a big stick
* Bears may offer suite life at ground level
* Officials see uptick in historic renovations in Springfield
* Task force looks to shrink Illinois government
* WATCH: Patrick Kane’s goal breaks NHL record
* Patrick Kane sets American record with 19-game point streak
* Kings rally from 2-0 third-period deficit to stun Hawks in OT
* Blackhawks preternatural confidence rubs off on new players
* Joel Quenneville wants Jonathan Toews to keep his gloves on
* Activists circle City Hall with black casket to honor Laquan, Tyshawn

* Police: Mother, son found dead in Beach Park; 'person' of interest in custody
* Man accused of hiding roommate's body in suitcase held without bail
* Man held on $200K in fatal Dan Ryan crash
* Missing person alert issued for girl, 16
* Gary woman killed in shooting Saturday night
* 6 sickened by carbon monoxide gas in Logan Square
* $2M bail set for man charged with robbery, murder in cousin's death
* Man killed, girlfriend wounded in Back of the Yards shooting
* Tollway motorist dead after driving into retention pond
* 3 dead, 5 wounded in Chicago shootings

* Bernard Schoenburg: Book on Blagojevich impeachment lets reader 'be right there'
* Andy Shaw: It's time to crack down on no-bid contracts
* 'Pot doctors' pushing boundaries in Illinois, other states
* Burger King manager: Police erased video of Chicago shooting
* Kristina Rasmussen: Relying on one another, not the government
* Charles Krauthammer: The Syrian immigration cul-de-sac
* Rob Elliott: EPA ethanol ruling affects more than energy policy
* Local free community college plans may be template for U.S.
* Rauner faces challenges in move to block refugees
* Vendor Payment Program suspended due to budget impasse

* Nov. 30 Bob Asmussen Chat
* Nov. 29 Asmussen Top 25
* Pet Talk: Unpleasant surprises
* Sundiata Cha-Jua/Real Talk: Are WSUs the new backlash against black resistance?
* Ted Kooser: An American Life in Poetry, Nov. 29, 2015
* Donna Reed/Voices: In life, sometimes we just need a reboot
* Getting Personal: Amanda Bossard
* Reluctant Townie: The legend of the Thanksgiving Troll
* Leonard Pitts Jr.: Trump giving people want they want
* Letter from Birdland: Cold weather is changing the landscape

* Sunday's NFL Capsules
* Women's Top 25 Capsules
* Hasselbeck, Vinatieri lead Colts past Buccaneers 25-12
* Higgs helps No. 8 Texas defeat No. 4 Lady Vols 64-53
* Kane County crashes that left 3 injured remain under investigation

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin Backs Duckworth - Alton Daily News...

* Opinion: Sen. Kirk must stand with crimina......

* Jail killer cops. Not Poets. #FreeMalcolmLondon
* Random thoughts.
* Free Malcolm London.
* Sunday posts, pics and tweets.
* Chinese Take Out
* "Mexican Food, Opening Soon"
* Tony at the Red Line Tap.
* The cover-up of the killing of Laquan McDonald.
* Keeping retirement weird. Justice is the public face of love.
* RLC Roundup: Drivers Aim Lawsuit At Tinley Park Red Light Cameras

* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller