SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Senger prepping race against Foster

Thursday, Apr 11, 2013

* Democrat Bill Foster won by about 17 points last year over longtime Republican Judy Biggert. This is uphill at best

State Rep. Darlene Senger will meet with Republicans in Washington, D.C., this week in preparation to challenge Democratic Rep. Bill Foster next year.

Senger will sit down with staff at the National Republican Congressional Committee, as well as with House GOP leadership and U.S. Chamber of Commerce officials, according to a knowledgeable Illinois Republican.

She is also scheduled to speak with several Illinois members, including GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger, Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, Randy Hultgren and John Shimkus.

Republicans do not expect Senger will formally declare her candidacy until later this month. In early March, Senger told CQ Roll Call that she was “considering” the race.

* Rep. Senger explained her thinking last month

“Part of what we’re looking at now is a trend in Illinois — [in] all of the non-presidential years, there is a way different race voter profile than there is during the presidential years,” Senger said on why she could outperform Biggert’s 2012 numbers.

Also, Senger or any other GOP challenger will not have to contend with the coattails of Illinois’ native son, President Barack Obama, in 2014 — or ever again.

But if Republicans make another poor showing here in 2014, it is hard to see how they will invest time and money in this district down the line. Also, Democrats point out that Foster outperformed Obama in the district in 2012.

Senger lives in Naperville, a suburb west of Chicago. She has served in Illinois House since 2009. Before her political career, she was a financial adviser. Her state committee assignments are related to finance.

A campaign blog is already set up, but there isn’t much to it.

* For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40, but Pat Quinn narrowly lost it 46-45. Mark Kirk won it 48-45. So, yeah, the numbers are very different in off years. But it’s still gonna be uphill for her as long as Foster does his job.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - LincolnLounger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    Certainly uphill, but if we have another “wave” election, then who knows? If Joe Walsh can get elected . . . .


  2. - WizzardOfOzzie - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Run Darlene Run! And then the GOP caucus will be down to a total of 3 reasonable, intelligent members.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Seventeen …17 points … tough “ask”.

    Bill Foster, himself, is NOT the same “Bill Foster” that won, then lost …

    I hope they are not looking at the TOTAL Illinois trend in POTUS-Year and Off-Year …and then NOT factoring in the District’s profile vs. Foster, and then 17 - point spread vs. the District Profile as it was drawn.

    The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    Food for thought …


  4. - downstate lib - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    Uphill, probably, but worth a shot. It’s not like she can reasonably predict ever being in the IL House Majority.


  5. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:40 pm:

    So she’s meeting with the entire gop house delegation except schock? What’s that about?


  6. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:46 pm:

    ===The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    National Journal and others take the old districts and recreate the new ones by precinct–it used to take a lot of time, but now it’s fairly fast. I would imagine she’s using the new districts recreated in the old election. But yes, if she isn’t using the new districts recreated using the old numbers, a different story.


  7. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:51 pm:

    I forgot that Foster won by nearly 17. If you grew up in that neck of the woods, it’s pretty hard to believe. People were too nice to laugh at Democratic candidates back in the day, much less vote for them.

    The voters have changed, the GOP has changed, or both.


  8. - RNUG Fan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:53 pm:

    The Dailykos Pres data by dist is really nice but it tells you nothing about an off -year. Also off -years have been really unpredictable.
    Obama and Quinn are doing their best to help the Republicans why not give it a try.
    I will go that data to pint our partisanship has really hardened and it looks like fewer people are paying attention to downballot races and going straight ticket
    That means most decisions will be in primaries and fewer and fewer districts


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    - ArchPundit -,

    I am also throwing in the fact that this “Bill Foster” is not the same as the last “Bill Foster” that won and then lost. Once you lose, you run differently then you ever ran before you ever lost.

    Some will say that state Rep. Senger is not Biggert running against the POTUS-Year issues. True. Congressman Bill Foster is now an incumbent, who knows how it stings to lose a Congressional seat.

    Like I said, I am quibbling, but when we are talking 17 points, really, no matter how you slice it, it’s still a tough “ask”, and if state Rep. Senger wants to make a “go” of it, good luck.


  10. - frustrated GOP - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    It’s a district built for Foster. Also, wasn’t she off for the last 2 weeks from Session? Why didn’t she meet then? Isn’t she suppose to be working right now? Just saying. Run, but do it when you’re not suppose to be in Springfield.
    After two weeks off, now you need to travel to DC to meet with people who have offices in their districts? Isn’t that’s what fridays are for? Reps travel home to actually be with and help the voters of the district?


  11. - Boone's is Back - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:05 pm:

    I would be scared of Senger if I were Foster. She would be a good fit for that district, and a formidable opponent.


  12. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:17 pm:

    If I was really cynical, I’d form an exploratory committee, raise $200K from people who care about federal issues and then defer to another candidate and convert the federal money to state money.


  13. - Judgment Day - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:18 pm:

    “….as long as Foster does his job.”

    That’s the real question. If Foster goes all “Dee Cee” on his district like he did last time, well, it will likely be “See Ya, Bill” for the second time. We’ll see if he learned anything from the first time.


  14. - Brendan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:26 pm:

    “For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40…”

    Did you do a precinct by precinct analysis? Because “this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.


  15. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    ===”this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.===

    No kidding. This is from an analysis of the new district.


  16. - anonymoose - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    Rep. Senger, from my past experience as she is now my former State Representative, provided excellent constituent services. Sent her an e-mail a couple of times and she was always back in touch quickly with a well-thought out position. She was on the Naperville City Council too. I will sign up today and offer to make a contribution.

    Respectfully, Ms. Biggert ran a rather tired campaign. She sounded tired, looked tired. Honestly, I sent in a small contribution to Rep. Biggert and it took weeks to get a “thank you.” That being said, I have yet to hear as much as a peep out of the less-than-exciting Bill Foster or any of the other Democrats who took over as my legislators in 2013. Pulse check anyone?


  17. - Shore - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    the trouble with these districts is that republicans have had a horrible time going democrat to republican in suburban areas around the country. They’ve lost these races because of the right shift in the party and the bush baggage, but outside of 2010 they’ve struggled to swim against their own party’s social conservatism, corruption, failed dc leadership and inability to generate a domestic policy message that appeals beyond the base.


  18. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:43 pm:

    Shore, that’s about right. It’s the curse of the success of the Southern GOP gerrymander.


  19. - Just The Way It Is One - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 7:06 pm:

    Sure, Rep. Senger is more than welcome enough to waste her time and money on a run–except for perhaps raising some important issues to the National Debate in Washington, although methinks Bill would more likely act concerned during such a campaign against him, like maybe he should re-consider his positions on some matters, if she, say, scrounged up 40%+ of the final vote…but upon re-election you could safely bet he’ll just keep on voting the same way he ever has since he 1st got into Congress…! But what the heck–bring the race on!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Ammons feels the Bern
* Carrigan: Agreed bill process or nothing
* Rivers Casino Needs to Drop its Unsavory Political Tactics Against Fantasy Sports
* Better late than never, I suppose
* *** LIVE *** Session Coverage
* Good investments, but not for the city
* Fantasy Sports Is Internet Gaming
* Baricevic hit over fundraising
* Simple answers to simple questions
* Talking past each other
* The more things change...
* *** UPDATED x1 - GOPs participated as well *** HDems move to shield social service contracts from immediate cancellation
* Brown: Democrats need a plan
* Durbin begs backers: "Cool it"
* Remap reformers declare victory
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Android Wear isn’t going to get any help from Samsung
* iOS 9 Now Supports Spotlight Suggestions in 7 More Countries
* Forget the 140 exceptions, Twitter’s going to let you retweet yourself
* [TA Deals] Save on three great car accessories for your mobile phone
* Pebble Time 2 Kickstarter finds fans, but is Pebble back in the game?
* Ex-Facebook designers climb charts with adorable game Pinchworm
* The LG G5’s “Friends” can now be purchased from LG.com

* New book helps paint portrait of Shoeless Joe
* White Sox survive doubleheader and turn to Chris Sale
* Ventura pleased starters worked deep in DH
* Nobody's more impactful than combo of Sale-Quintana
* Indians 5, White Sox 1: Dingers doom Erik Johnson
* Johnson allows 3 HRs as Sox drop nightcap
* Dominant Sale eyes 10th win as White Sox face Tribe

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Steve Cochran Full Show 05.24.16: Gov. Rauner s.....
* State enters final week to pass budgets - Illin.....
* *** UPDATED x1 - GOPs participated as well *** .....
* Budget, education top priorities in legislative.....
* The more things change… - The Capitol Fax Blog .....


* Lawyers contribute to congressional campaign of judge's son
* Updating Illinois IDs won't cost require more state money
* Northern Illinois man accused of possessing pipe bombs
* State election board questions automatic voter registration
* High court rejects request to reconsider Blagojevich case
* Prosecutors: Peterson offered $10,000 for prosecutor's death
* Inmate: Drew Peterson admitted to killing missing wife
* 3 men from Illinois killed, 1 injured in Kankakee crash
* Budget stalemate erodes interest in some Illinois colleges
* Rauner: Still time to achieve 'grand compromise'

* Illinois lawmaker, university spar over research animals
* Illinois remapping issue inches closer to November ballot
* Republicans doubtful Illinois State Fairgrounds foundation bill will pass
* GOP leaders: No tax hike with no reforms
* State election board questions automatic voter registration
* Feeding sites to still serve needy children in Springfield
* U.S. Supreme Court rejects request to reconsider Blagojevich case
* Rauner says there's still time for 'grand compromise'
* Updating photo IDs won’t require extra state spending
* Budget stalemate erodes interest in some Illinois colleges

* Monsanto rejects $62 billion Bayer offer
* Goodbye, empty nest: Millennials staying longer with parents
* Most common place for millennials to live: with their parents
* Park Forest schools locked down after FBI agents shot
* How the IRS is missing out on the Airbnb and Uber economy


* Mayor’s plan to abolish IPRA raises questions, few answers
* Aldermen crack down on vehicles torched for insurance purposes
* Roger Simon: Every candidate needs a good smack or two
* Lawsuit accuses Domino’s Pizza of ‘rampant wage violations’
* Wednesday Letters: Like in Montreal, ban horse-drawn carriages
* 25-year-old man missing from Auburn Gresham
* Tragically Hip’s Gord Downie diagnosed with terminal cancer
* EU gives go-ahead for huge beer merger
* Goodbye, empty nest: Millennials staying longer with parents
* Coming soon to Twitter: More room to tweet


* Forensic expert: Human remains from EgyptAir crash suggest explosion
* Concussion group says ex-NFL player Bubba Smith had CTE
* FBI agents wounded in bid to nab reputed gang member; suspect dead in Park Forest
* Saudi Arabia's new oil plan shows it's just not that into OPEC
* Sumner Redstone finds he has no friends after all
* EgyptAir alerts baffle experts as fire or bomb both possible
* Texas education board candidate claimed Obama was a gay prostitute
* More Kevin White TDs, Hroniss Grasu starts or Bears wins?
* Lake Geneva mom who disappeared with 3 sons found safe in Georgia: Cops
* Jason Heyward returns to Cubs lineup


* Illinois lawmaker, university spar over research animals
* Illinois remapping issue inches closer to November ballot
* Republicans doubtful Illinois State Fairgrounds foundation bill will pass
* Kathleen Parker: Election disaffection
* GOP leaders: No tax hike with no reforms
* State election board questions automatic voter registration
* Feeding sites to still serve needy children in Springfield
* U.S. Supreme Court rejects request to reconsider Blagojevich case
* Rauner says there's still time for 'grand compromise'
* Janet S. Stover: New OT regs could hit social service providers hard


* Bicyclist unresponsive after collision
* Deputies seek man who robbed convenience store in Urbana
* Engineer: Eagle Creek should be demolished
* 05-24-16 Jim Turpin with @IlliniAD Josh Whitman
* 05-24-16 Penny for Your Thoughts
* Whitman: No timetable on Nunn decision
* Car crashes into Champaign; no injuries reported
* Car crashes into Champaign store; no injuries reported
* 21-year-old arrested over Champaign break-in
* U of Chicago to create $50 million entrepreneurship center


* Authorities: Lake Geneva mom, sons found safe in Georgia
* Poutine chain coming to Lake Zurich, Naperville
* David Hinman, senior vice president, Fifth Third Bank
* Barrington man accused of killing wife allowed to remain with son for now
* Texas education board candidate known for conspiracy posts

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin Blocks Efforts T......
* Durbin begs backers: “Cool it” - The Capit......

* Letter: Kirk's leadership encourages suppo......

* FLATS Announces Details of Lawrence House Grand Opening
* UPDATE X2: IL GOP At-Large Delegate Committee Blocks Conservatives
* U.S. Senate Republicans point to Kirk win as evidence GOP will retain majority
* UPDATE X1: IL GOP committee recommends dropping opposition to same sex marriage plank
* Independent Map Amendment Passes Petition Test at Board of Elections
* Illinois Review responds to upset IL GOP Platform Committee member
* Virginia lawmakers resist governor's order allowing felons to vote
* NRA endorses Trump for President
* Trump moves to rally Christian evangelical favor
* Former IL GOP Chairman just texted "F**k u" to 6th CD constituent


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller