SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Senger prepping race against Foster

Thursday, Apr 11, 2013

* Democrat Bill Foster won by about 17 points last year over longtime Republican Judy Biggert. This is uphill at best

State Rep. Darlene Senger will meet with Republicans in Washington, D.C., this week in preparation to challenge Democratic Rep. Bill Foster next year.

Senger will sit down with staff at the National Republican Congressional Committee, as well as with House GOP leadership and U.S. Chamber of Commerce officials, according to a knowledgeable Illinois Republican.

She is also scheduled to speak with several Illinois members, including GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger, Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, Randy Hultgren and John Shimkus.

Republicans do not expect Senger will formally declare her candidacy until later this month. In early March, Senger told CQ Roll Call that she was “considering” the race.

* Rep. Senger explained her thinking last month

“Part of what we’re looking at now is a trend in Illinois — [in] all of the non-presidential years, there is a way different race voter profile than there is during the presidential years,” Senger said on why she could outperform Biggert’s 2012 numbers.

Also, Senger or any other GOP challenger will not have to contend with the coattails of Illinois’ native son, President Barack Obama, in 2014 — or ever again.

But if Republicans make another poor showing here in 2014, it is hard to see how they will invest time and money in this district down the line. Also, Democrats point out that Foster outperformed Obama in the district in 2012.

Senger lives in Naperville, a suburb west of Chicago. She has served in Illinois House since 2009. Before her political career, she was a financial adviser. Her state committee assignments are related to finance.

A campaign blog is already set up, but there isn’t much to it.

* For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40, but Pat Quinn narrowly lost it 46-45. Mark Kirk won it 48-45. So, yeah, the numbers are very different in off years. But it’s still gonna be uphill for her as long as Foster does his job.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - LincolnLounger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    Certainly uphill, but if we have another “wave” election, then who knows? If Joe Walsh can get elected . . . .


  2. - WizzardOfOzzie - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Run Darlene Run! And then the GOP caucus will be down to a total of 3 reasonable, intelligent members.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Seventeen …17 points … tough “ask”.

    Bill Foster, himself, is NOT the same “Bill Foster” that won, then lost …

    I hope they are not looking at the TOTAL Illinois trend in POTUS-Year and Off-Year …and then NOT factoring in the District’s profile vs. Foster, and then 17 - point spread vs. the District Profile as it was drawn.

    The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    Food for thought …


  4. - downstate lib - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    Uphill, probably, but worth a shot. It’s not like she can reasonably predict ever being in the IL House Majority.


  5. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:40 pm:

    So she’s meeting with the entire gop house delegation except schock? What’s that about?


  6. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:46 pm:

    ===The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    National Journal and others take the old districts and recreate the new ones by precinct–it used to take a lot of time, but now it’s fairly fast. I would imagine she’s using the new districts recreated in the old election. But yes, if she isn’t using the new districts recreated using the old numbers, a different story.


  7. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:51 pm:

    I forgot that Foster won by nearly 17. If you grew up in that neck of the woods, it’s pretty hard to believe. People were too nice to laugh at Democratic candidates back in the day, much less vote for them.

    The voters have changed, the GOP has changed, or both.


  8. - RNUG Fan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:53 pm:

    The Dailykos Pres data by dist is really nice but it tells you nothing about an off -year. Also off -years have been really unpredictable.
    Obama and Quinn are doing their best to help the Republicans why not give it a try.
    I will go that data to pint our partisanship has really hardened and it looks like fewer people are paying attention to downballot races and going straight ticket
    That means most decisions will be in primaries and fewer and fewer districts


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    - ArchPundit -,

    I am also throwing in the fact that this “Bill Foster” is not the same as the last “Bill Foster” that won and then lost. Once you lose, you run differently then you ever ran before you ever lost.

    Some will say that state Rep. Senger is not Biggert running against the POTUS-Year issues. True. Congressman Bill Foster is now an incumbent, who knows how it stings to lose a Congressional seat.

    Like I said, I am quibbling, but when we are talking 17 points, really, no matter how you slice it, it’s still a tough “ask”, and if state Rep. Senger wants to make a “go” of it, good luck.


  10. - frustrated GOP - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    It’s a district built for Foster. Also, wasn’t she off for the last 2 weeks from Session? Why didn’t she meet then? Isn’t she suppose to be working right now? Just saying. Run, but do it when you’re not suppose to be in Springfield.
    After two weeks off, now you need to travel to DC to meet with people who have offices in their districts? Isn’t that’s what fridays are for? Reps travel home to actually be with and help the voters of the district?


  11. - Boone's is Back - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:05 pm:

    I would be scared of Senger if I were Foster. She would be a good fit for that district, and a formidable opponent.


  12. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:17 pm:

    If I was really cynical, I’d form an exploratory committee, raise $200K from people who care about federal issues and then defer to another candidate and convert the federal money to state money.


  13. - Judgment Day - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:18 pm:

    “….as long as Foster does his job.”

    That’s the real question. If Foster goes all “Dee Cee” on his district like he did last time, well, it will likely be “See Ya, Bill” for the second time. We’ll see if he learned anything from the first time.


  14. - Brendan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:26 pm:

    “For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40…”

    Did you do a precinct by precinct analysis? Because “this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.


  15. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    ===”this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.===

    No kidding. This is from an analysis of the new district.


  16. - anonymoose - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    Rep. Senger, from my past experience as she is now my former State Representative, provided excellent constituent services. Sent her an e-mail a couple of times and she was always back in touch quickly with a well-thought out position. She was on the Naperville City Council too. I will sign up today and offer to make a contribution.

    Respectfully, Ms. Biggert ran a rather tired campaign. She sounded tired, looked tired. Honestly, I sent in a small contribution to Rep. Biggert and it took weeks to get a “thank you.” That being said, I have yet to hear as much as a peep out of the less-than-exciting Bill Foster or any of the other Democrats who took over as my legislators in 2013. Pulse check anyone?


  17. - Shore - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    the trouble with these districts is that republicans have had a horrible time going democrat to republican in suburban areas around the country. They’ve lost these races because of the right shift in the party and the bush baggage, but outside of 2010 they’ve struggled to swim against their own party’s social conservatism, corruption, failed dc leadership and inability to generate a domestic policy message that appeals beyond the base.


  18. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:43 pm:

    Shore, that’s about right. It’s the curse of the success of the Southern GOP gerrymander.


  19. - Just The Way It Is One - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 7:06 pm:

    Sure, Rep. Senger is more than welcome enough to waste her time and money on a run–except for perhaps raising some important issues to the National Debate in Washington, although methinks Bill would more likely act concerned during such a campaign against him, like maybe he should re-consider his positions on some matters, if she, say, scrounged up 40%+ of the final vote…but upon re-election you could safely bet he’ll just keep on voting the same way he ever has since he 1st got into Congress…! But what the heck–bring the race on!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Bost: "minimum wage will actually hurt the middle class"
* S&P revises Illinois outlook to "negative"
* Let's try that NRI document dump again
* What's ahead?
* Question of the day
* Teh crazy
* Lawyers want expedited pension ruling
* Briefing schedule, threats issued
* A look at another aspect of the Rauner proposal: Property taxes
* Quinn opens new front in campaign: Assault weapons
* Cross turns thumbs down on Rauner service tax
* Define "regularly"
* Internal Maywood politics caused shift in NRI grant money
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rate Rauner's new TV ad
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Google Play Summer Sale warms up. Prepare your wallets!
        * Verizon’s HTC One Remix is a rebranded One mini 2
        * Marvel offering 1st month promo to read over 15,000 comics
        * iPhone sales up, iPad sales down, Google Play Material Design & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Google Maps update lets you search less, Explore more
        * Fleksy 3.0 brings more languages, customisation options
        * Sensor-Powered Seatbelt Could Save the Lives of Sleepy Drivers

        * OS X Yosemite Expected To Launch in Late October
        * WP5 Robot Picks Peppers
        * Google Maps Wants You To Explore More
        * Zinger Electric Wheelchair Is Incredibly Light
        * MH17 Incident Could Be Used To Scam Facebook Users
        * Law Rules That Internet Companies Stash Data Within Russia
        * Sony PS4 Firmware 1.75 To Introduce 3D Blu-ray Support

        * Royals 2, White Sox 1: Series ends with a thud
        * After pitching duel, mishap at plate stings Sox
        * After pitching duel, catching error stings Sox
        * Sox turn to Noesi to open four-game set in Minnesota
        * Top Sox pick Rodon debuts in Rookie League
        * Sox remember Buehrle's perfecto on anniversary
        * Flowers makes it for son's birth just in time


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * TALKING POINTS: Do you miss city vehicle sticke.....
        * Oak Lawn to start huge water improvement projec.....
        * OUR VIEW: Quinn, let's get real about jobs data.....
        * Standard & Poor's Gives Illinois Negative Outlook..
        * A flood of solidarity with Palestine..
        * Pro-Israel Real Estate Broker, Who Sells Condos.....
        * Billionaire Ken Griffin, chief of Citadel, file.....
        * Scott Reeder takes a look at a recent veto made.....
        * Rauner Wants Quinn To Veto Uber Restrictions..
        * State Department of Veterans' Affairs Director .....


        * Childhood traumas more common in military members
        * US seeks to strip ex-charity head of citizenship
        * Chicago school board approves $5.8 billion budget
        * Cook County voters will get guns ballot question
        * High school track coach accused of sexual assault
        * Standard & Poor's gives Illinois negative outlook
        * Ruling: Records in Bloomington case are public
        * Trial date set for 1 of 4 charged in Joliet deaths
        * Ex-Illinois gov: Namesake building 'a scrap heap'
        * Beckman believes Brattan a good fit for line

        * Libertarian, Green Party politicians seeing blocks by established parties
        * S&P drops Illinois' credit rating to 'negative'
        * Prosecutors respond to new Blagojevich argument
        * Former governor Thompson: Namesake building 'a scrap heap'
        * Search salary information for state, city, county employees
        * Quinn signs legislation to combat flooding
        * GOP group targets Democratic supermajority in Illinois
        * Emails raise questions of politics in Quinn's anti-violence program
        * Illinois Manufacturers' Association backs Rauner for governor
        * Illinois patients to docs: 'What about marijuana?'

        * Illinois health insurers to pay back millions in premiums
        * Billionaire Ken Griffin files for divorce
        * Chicago-area meat supplier admits fault in China food safety scandal
        * S&P threatens downgrade over Illinois budget trouble
        * Politics in Quinn’s anti-violence program? Probe focuses on emails


        * Prosecutors: Man brags about ‘Fat Man’ tattoo during alleged rape
        * Bike-shop mechanics help cops nab bicycle thieves
        * School bus driver accused of molesting 9-year-old girl
        * Grieving mom files second suit against father-in-law Chicago cop
        * for its own security, Israel must finish the job it started in Gaza
        * Ex-CPS janitor charged with sexually attacking 2 students
        * Man free after 20 years in prison for murder he didn’t commit
        * Person of interest questioned in shooting death of 11-year-old; family seeks donations for funeral
        * Snoop Dogg reveals he smoked weed at White House
        * Track coach at Simeon faces sexual assault charges involving students


        * Family opens up about Chicago police officer killed in crash
        * Chief judge came close to shutting Chicago's federal court during government shutdown last fall
        * At least two shot in Fuller Park
        * Willis clan hopes America's Got Talent run shows family's strength
        * Sources: Suspect questioned in killing of 11-year-old Shamiya Adams
        * Judge: Daley won't have to testify due to health
        * Judge: Daley won't have to testify due to health
        * Chicago School Board approves $5.8B budget
        * Chicago School Board approves $5.8B budget
        * Convicted developer seeks release from custody to repair marina he admitted ripping off


        * Illinois' Credit Prognosis: Negative
        * The Big Sort
        * Questions raised about Daley's health
        * Losing school librarians in Chicago Public Schools
        * Durbin Files Legislation Reacting To Hobby Lobby Decision
        * "The Civil War" Becomes A Downtown Musical
        * Republican Attorney General Candidate: Pension Changes Unconstitutional
        * Winners of WBEZ’s Student Stories
        * Court OKs FutureGen Financing Plan
        * Trucker Questions: Are Police Above Illinois' Traffic Laws?


        * Bernard Schoenburg: Stocks-Smith considers another run for mayor
        * GROW-IL Coalition: Illinois’ foot-dragging means lost dollars from fracking
        * Eugene Robinson: The downside of giving weapons
        * George Will: Goldwater 2.0
        * S&P drops Illinois' credit rating to 'negative'
        * Former governor Thompson: Namesake building 'a scrap heap'
        * Quinn signs legislation to combat flooding
        * Emails raise questions of politics in Quinn's anti-violence program
        * Illinois patients to docs: 'What about marijuana?'
        * State appeals court upholds FutureGen power agreement


        * Intelligence a Casualty in Inane "Sex Tape"
        * FLING: IN BRIEF
        * Covering the arts
        * Davidsmeyer to open Jerseyville office
        * Republican chair details plan for new commissioner
        * River reopens after barges freed
        * Marijuana ‘gatekeepers’ preparing now
        * State closes Greene food processor after numerous violations
        * Police reports
        * Looking Back (July 24, 2014)


        * Lombard missing woman found safe
        * Fire thrashed by Earthquakes, 5-1
        * Joliet Catholic stops Prospect's summer surge
        * Major happenings in the Cubs minors
        * FAA lifts ban on U.S. flights to Israel

        * House passes Lipinski bill for Herbie John...
        * Renaming of Mount Greenwood post office in...
        * Rep. Lipinski's Bill Improving Internation...
        * Rep. Lipinski Reacts to House Passing Bill...
        * Rep. Lipinski Announces $206428 Grant for ...
        * Rep. Lipinski's Bill Renaming Mount Greenw...
        * Immigration reform rally - WGNtv.com
        * Lipinski Congratulates the Third District'...
        * Quick News - The Herald-News
        * House passes Lipinski bill for Herbie John...

        * My Turn: Trouble is lurking for state’s on......
        * My Turn: Trouble is lurking for state’s on......
        * My Turn: Trouble is lurking for state’s on......
        * My Turn: Trouble is lurking for state’s on......
        * Share Article...

        * Bob Dole won't give up on disability treaty...
        * Schneider’s Hezbollah sanctions bill passe......
        * Israeli Airline With Missile Defenses Goes......

        * Sheriff Dart, Chicago Faith Leaders Discuss Incarceration Alternatives For Mentally Ill Inmates (VIDEO)
        * FLATS Chicago Developer, City Partnering On Affordable Housing Program
        * Chicago Board Of Ed Approves Budget, Debate Over School Funding Rages On
        * FLATS Chicago Developer, City Partnering On Affordable Housing
        * Crowd At Reclaim Campaign Public Meeting
        * Students With VOYCE Ahead Of Chicago Board Of Education Meeting
        * Illinois makes it illegal for employers to ask about applicants criminal background
        * Bost says Enyart an accessory to newly uncovered Obamacare fraud and abuse
        * Editorial: Why won't a grocer set up shop in South Shore?
        * Obama Executive Orders New Attack on Religious Liberty


        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Help Combat Flooding in Illinois - Oak Lawn to Receive $12.7 Million in Stormwater Assistance as Part of New Law’s Expansion of Clean Water Initiative
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Cook County Board’s Additional Advisory Referendums - Cook County Voters Asked to Voice Their Opinions on Gun Safety and Mental Health Care on November Ballot
        * Governor Quinn Signs $1.1 Billion Capital Construction Bill - Shovel Ready Projects Will Create Thousands of Jobs and Drive Economic Growth
        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Strengthen Ethics Provisions in County Government - Law Helps Increase Accountability for Public Officials in Illinois’ Collar Counties
        * Governor Quinn Signs Legislation to Help Ease Pain for Adults and Children with Seizures - New Law Adds Seizures to List of Debilitating Medical Conditions Under the Compassionate Use of Medical Cannabis Act




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller