SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Senger prepping race against Foster

Thursday, Apr 11, 2013

* Democrat Bill Foster won by about 17 points last year over longtime Republican Judy Biggert. This is uphill at best

State Rep. Darlene Senger will meet with Republicans in Washington, D.C., this week in preparation to challenge Democratic Rep. Bill Foster next year.

Senger will sit down with staff at the National Republican Congressional Committee, as well as with House GOP leadership and U.S. Chamber of Commerce officials, according to a knowledgeable Illinois Republican.

She is also scheduled to speak with several Illinois members, including GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger, Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, Randy Hultgren and John Shimkus.

Republicans do not expect Senger will formally declare her candidacy until later this month. In early March, Senger told CQ Roll Call that she was “considering” the race.

* Rep. Senger explained her thinking last month

“Part of what we’re looking at now is a trend in Illinois — [in] all of the non-presidential years, there is a way different race voter profile than there is during the presidential years,” Senger said on why she could outperform Biggert’s 2012 numbers.

Also, Senger or any other GOP challenger will not have to contend with the coattails of Illinois’ native son, President Barack Obama, in 2014 — or ever again.

But if Republicans make another poor showing here in 2014, it is hard to see how they will invest time and money in this district down the line. Also, Democrats point out that Foster outperformed Obama in the district in 2012.

Senger lives in Naperville, a suburb west of Chicago. She has served in Illinois House since 2009. Before her political career, she was a financial adviser. Her state committee assignments are related to finance.

A campaign blog is already set up, but there isn’t much to it.

* For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40, but Pat Quinn narrowly lost it 46-45. Mark Kirk won it 48-45. So, yeah, the numbers are very different in off years. But it’s still gonna be uphill for her as long as Foster does his job.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - LincolnLounger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    Certainly uphill, but if we have another “wave” election, then who knows? If Joe Walsh can get elected . . . .


  2. - WizzardOfOzzie - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Run Darlene Run! And then the GOP caucus will be down to a total of 3 reasonable, intelligent members.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Seventeen …17 points … tough “ask”.

    Bill Foster, himself, is NOT the same “Bill Foster” that won, then lost …

    I hope they are not looking at the TOTAL Illinois trend in POTUS-Year and Off-Year …and then NOT factoring in the District’s profile vs. Foster, and then 17 - point spread vs. the District Profile as it was drawn.

    The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    Food for thought …


  4. - downstate lib - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    Uphill, probably, but worth a shot. It’s not like she can reasonably predict ever being in the IL House Majority.


  5. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:40 pm:

    So she’s meeting with the entire gop house delegation except schock? What’s that about?


  6. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:46 pm:

    ===The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    National Journal and others take the old districts and recreate the new ones by precinct–it used to take a lot of time, but now it’s fairly fast. I would imagine she’s using the new districts recreated in the old election. But yes, if she isn’t using the new districts recreated using the old numbers, a different story.


  7. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:51 pm:

    I forgot that Foster won by nearly 17. If you grew up in that neck of the woods, it’s pretty hard to believe. People were too nice to laugh at Democratic candidates back in the day, much less vote for them.

    The voters have changed, the GOP has changed, or both.


  8. - RNUG Fan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:53 pm:

    The Dailykos Pres data by dist is really nice but it tells you nothing about an off -year. Also off -years have been really unpredictable.
    Obama and Quinn are doing their best to help the Republicans why not give it a try.
    I will go that data to pint our partisanship has really hardened and it looks like fewer people are paying attention to downballot races and going straight ticket
    That means most decisions will be in primaries and fewer and fewer districts


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    - ArchPundit -,

    I am also throwing in the fact that this “Bill Foster” is not the same as the last “Bill Foster” that won and then lost. Once you lose, you run differently then you ever ran before you ever lost.

    Some will say that state Rep. Senger is not Biggert running against the POTUS-Year issues. True. Congressman Bill Foster is now an incumbent, who knows how it stings to lose a Congressional seat.

    Like I said, I am quibbling, but when we are talking 17 points, really, no matter how you slice it, it’s still a tough “ask”, and if state Rep. Senger wants to make a “go” of it, good luck.


  10. - frustrated GOP - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    It’s a district built for Foster. Also, wasn’t she off for the last 2 weeks from Session? Why didn’t she meet then? Isn’t she suppose to be working right now? Just saying. Run, but do it when you’re not suppose to be in Springfield.
    After two weeks off, now you need to travel to DC to meet with people who have offices in their districts? Isn’t that’s what fridays are for? Reps travel home to actually be with and help the voters of the district?


  11. - Boone's is Back - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:05 pm:

    I would be scared of Senger if I were Foster. She would be a good fit for that district, and a formidable opponent.


  12. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:17 pm:

    If I was really cynical, I’d form an exploratory committee, raise $200K from people who care about federal issues and then defer to another candidate and convert the federal money to state money.


  13. - Judgment Day - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:18 pm:

    “….as long as Foster does his job.”

    That’s the real question. If Foster goes all “Dee Cee” on his district like he did last time, well, it will likely be “See Ya, Bill” for the second time. We’ll see if he learned anything from the first time.


  14. - Brendan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:26 pm:

    “For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40…”

    Did you do a precinct by precinct analysis? Because “this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.


  15. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    ===”this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.===

    No kidding. This is from an analysis of the new district.


  16. - anonymoose - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    Rep. Senger, from my past experience as she is now my former State Representative, provided excellent constituent services. Sent her an e-mail a couple of times and she was always back in touch quickly with a well-thought out position. She was on the Naperville City Council too. I will sign up today and offer to make a contribution.

    Respectfully, Ms. Biggert ran a rather tired campaign. She sounded tired, looked tired. Honestly, I sent in a small contribution to Rep. Biggert and it took weeks to get a “thank you.” That being said, I have yet to hear as much as a peep out of the less-than-exciting Bill Foster or any of the other Democrats who took over as my legislators in 2013. Pulse check anyone?


  17. - Shore - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    the trouble with these districts is that republicans have had a horrible time going democrat to republican in suburban areas around the country. They’ve lost these races because of the right shift in the party and the bush baggage, but outside of 2010 they’ve struggled to swim against their own party’s social conservatism, corruption, failed dc leadership and inability to generate a domestic policy message that appeals beyond the base.


  18. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:43 pm:

    Shore, that’s about right. It’s the curse of the success of the Southern GOP gerrymander.


  19. - Just The Way It Is One - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 7:06 pm:

    Sure, Rep. Senger is more than welcome enough to waste her time and money on a run–except for perhaps raising some important issues to the National Debate in Washington, although methinks Bill would more likely act concerned during such a campaign against him, like maybe he should re-consider his positions on some matters, if she, say, scrounged up 40%+ of the final vote…but upon re-election you could safely bet he’ll just keep on voting the same way he ever has since he 1st got into Congress…! But what the heck–bring the race on!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Afternoon updates
* "Not Recommended Budget" would cut $450M from education
* Protect Patient Safety – Don’t Let Psychologists Prescribe
* Question of the Day
* Then and now
* Like deja vu all over again
* Kirk to campaign for Oberweis afterall
* Today's numbers
* Morning Shorts
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * FCC Chairman confirms plan to limit buying power of AT&T, Verizon
        * Apple starts selling refurbed Retina iPad mini, Motorola discounts accessories
        * Beats Music update brings widget, social interaction
        * RadioShack Drops iPhone 5s Price to $99
        * 5 Nokia Lumia Tumblrs photography fans will love
        * 3D-Printed Ford Gran Torino Is the Muscle Car From Hell
        * Here’s why you shouldn’t try to find those hidden I/O tickets

        * Toshiba Shows How Project Ara’s Modularity Can Be Applied To Wearables
        * Purchasing The OnePlus One Will Require An Invite
        * Hitman GO Now Available In iTunes App Store
        * Google is sending dummy Glass units to prospective Explorers
        * Nikon 1 V3 Is Now Shipping
        * Cortana Is Off-Limits To Users Aged Below 13 Years Old
        * Liking A Company’s Facebook Page Could Potentially Void Your Right To Sue Them

        * Zach Putnam added to roster; Donnie Veal designated for assignment
        * White Sox call up Putnam, designate Veal
        * Three questions after a four-reliever inning
        * Despite taking loss, Garcia savors pitching experience
        * Sale, Lester set for marquee matchup in finale
        * Bullpen springs late leak in White Sox loss
        * Alexei homers to push hitting streak to 15 games


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Quinn announces $9.4 million for southern .....
        * Environmental groups file suit to stop $1.3B Il.....
        * Illinois GOP Elects State Central Committee, Co.....
        * Illinois Tornado Relief Effort Raises Over $1.1.....
        * Anti-violence funds paid for salary of another .....
        * PRESIDENT SCHAPIRO: NORTHWESTERN ATTRACTING MOR.....
        * Environmental groups sue to stop Illiana tollway..
        * LeeAnn Shelton..
        * Study: Men with unique beards found more attrac.....
        * 4 students charged for sexual assault of girl, 15..


        * Man said to be homesick for prison gets 3 1/2 years
        * Nik Wallenda in Chicago to scout tightrope walk
        * Herbalife discloses investigation in Illinois
        * Beaman files new lawsuit in ISU case
        * Environmental groups sue to stop Illiana tollway
        * Illinois gives early OK to $100M for Obama museum
        * Illinois medical marijuana rules drop gun language
        * Lockdown over at southern Illinois' Menard prison
        * Judge puts off ruling in suit against Rutherford
        * New SIU president to start work next month

        * Tough tax votes loom for lawmakers
        * Judge puts off ruling in suit against Rutherford
        * Lawmakers to discuss money for Obama library
        * Illinois House committee gives early OK to $100M for Obama museum
        * Quinn promotes autism awareness at Brookfield Zoo
        * Broadcaster Samuelson named to Illinois Racing Board
        * Gun language dropped from state medical marijuana rules
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Battle on for GOP state party post
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Scherer got more than $90,000 from Madigan in primary
        * Report: Big cuts to state aid for schools if tax expires

        * Nik Wallenda in Chicago to scout tightrope walk
        * Michaels Stores confirms breach of as many as 2.6 million cards
        * Career Education CEO got $4.8 million in 2013
        * Obama says 8 million signed up for health insurance
        * GM doesn't have to order customers to park recalled cars


        * Wallenda says Willis Tower not suited for high-wire act
        * Ex-con who robs bank to go to jail gets 3.5-year sentence
        * Free floating ethics in Cook County
        * Teen shot in the face in Chicago’s Auburn Gresham neighborhood
        * Truman College instructor accused of sexually assaulting former student
        * Man held without bail for alleged sexual assault in Boystown
        * CTA plans L overpass at Belmont to eliminate bottleneck


        * Northwest Indiana mayor, wife and step-daughter indicted
        * Sheriff pushes probes of policing woes in suburbs
        * Vanecko attorneys seek to dismiss lawsuit by David Koschman's mother
        * Emanuel defends Claypool's controversial CTA hires
        * Emanuel defends Claypool's controversial CTA hires
        * First lady meets with Chicago students in D.C.
        * Elderly bank robber sentenced to prison
        * Wallenda on Chicago skyline walk: "The higher I can go, the better"
        * CTA: 16 buildings need to be razed for Belmont 'L' overpass
        * Judge to hear arguments on Rutherford motion to toss harassment suit


        * Nine Illinois lawmakers vote to fund Obama library - but only five members in attendance
        * WBEZ's Student Stories
        * Interview: John Tinker & The Landmark Case On Students' Right To Free Speech
        * State Legislation Hints At Marijuana Legalization
        * Plan Threatens Proposed Downstate Casinos
        * Raising Gax Tax "Unwise," Says Quinn, But Offers No Other Ideas
        * How Much Would Your School District Lose?
        * Illinois Senate Joins Push For U.S. Constitutional Convention
        * Study: Pre-K Education Provides For Economic Growth
        * The Vanishing Millionaire Tax


        * Judge puts off ruling in suit against Rutherford
        * Illinois House committee gives early OK to $100M for Obama museum
        * Gun language dropped from state medical marijuana rules
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Scherer got more than $90,000 from Madigan in primary
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Scherer got more than $90,000 from Madigan in primary
        * Tom Bertrand: Poverty grants contribute to inequality among Illinois schools
        * Report: Big cuts to state aid for schools if income tax increase expires
        * Comptroller Topinka reports $125K in income
        * Addiction experts: Illinois budget cuts could hurt drug treatment
        * Legislative hearing on Chicago casino begins


        * Sports Talk 04-17-14
        * Updated: Marathon to reopen registration
        * Cook County official's hiring practices questioned
        * IDNR fires Tony Mayville
        * Tense moments in Caseyville, but in the end, Alvarez is still chief
        * Simon Estes: Prayer, music critical to success
        * Napp elected as Democratic chairmain
        * Alton quarry files suit against city
        * Police respond to reported abduction in Columbia
        * Record-holding covered wagon repaired


        * The 10th District money race
        * Aurora Democrat calls out IHSA
        * Lawyers: Ill. hazing law vague, unconstitutional
        * Ill. House OKs lower-cost hunting bill for seniors
        * Quinn’s running mate takes new consulting job

        * Lipinski seeks artistic submissions - The ...
        * Lemont VFW honors Vietnam veterans - Subur...
        * Lipinski Votes to Protect the Paychecks of...
        * Meet the 8 House Dems who don't co-sponsor...
        * Jeff Vorva's Editor's Notebook: In this ca...
        * Rep. Lipinski Honors Vietnam Vets on House...
        * Southwest Airlines Adding 9 Non-Stop Daily...
        * Lipinski Announces Southwest will Start Fl...
        * Lipinski Thanks Voters for Support in Unco...
        * Rep. Lipinski Joins Students from Lemont a...

        * Loading Koch Industries Website Too Many T......
        * Maryland and DC among worst for food aller......
        * Cleveland State University to reestablish ......
        * Convicted political boss Al Sanchez runnin......
        * Candidates make last filings for local, st......

        * Illinois Lt. Gov. Simon opposes pension le......
        * Dillard Odd Man Out on Pension Deal Reaction...
        * Sen. Mark Kirk sides with Rauner on pensio......
        * Governor's race infighting threatens pensi......
        * SCHOONERS - Home of Everyone's Favorite Be......

        * House Democrats' Committee Sitting On $40M Fund
        * U.S. Rep. Brad Schneider Hosts Roundtable Discussion On Protecting The Great Lakes
        * Illinois GOP Elects State Central Committee, County Chairs
        * CPS Students Want State Lawmakers To Fix 'Broken' School Discipline Policies
        * Illinois driver chastised through unsolicited text message from state police
        * Illinois Republican Party picks new State Central Committee members
        * Fed Survey: Growth Picks Up Across Most Of US
        * Court To Weigh Challenge To Ban On Campaign Lies
        * A Year After Background Check Defeat, Modest Goals
        * Some Exempted From Minimum Wage, Increased Or Not


        * Illinois filmmakers invited to enter state’s Shortcuts competition - 7th year for Illinois Film Office contest honoring local talent
        * Injured Worker Charged with Workers’ Compensation Fraud - Defendant Lied Under Oath to IWCC Arbitrator in an Attempt to Obtain Benefits
        * State-wide Veterans Service Offices Will Be Closed for Annual Training
        * Liquor Control Commission March Underage Compliance Report
        * Governor Quinn Releases First-Ever Illinois Bike Transportation Plan - Plan Formally Makes Bicycles Part of Illinois’ Long-Range Transportation Vision




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller