SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Senger prepping race against Foster

Thursday, Apr 11, 2013

* Democrat Bill Foster won by about 17 points last year over longtime Republican Judy Biggert. This is uphill at best

State Rep. Darlene Senger will meet with Republicans in Washington, D.C., this week in preparation to challenge Democratic Rep. Bill Foster next year.

Senger will sit down with staff at the National Republican Congressional Committee, as well as with House GOP leadership and U.S. Chamber of Commerce officials, according to a knowledgeable Illinois Republican.

She is also scheduled to speak with several Illinois members, including GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger, Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, Randy Hultgren and John Shimkus.

Republicans do not expect Senger will formally declare her candidacy until later this month. In early March, Senger told CQ Roll Call that she was “considering” the race.

* Rep. Senger explained her thinking last month

“Part of what we’re looking at now is a trend in Illinois — [in] all of the non-presidential years, there is a way different race voter profile than there is during the presidential years,” Senger said on why she could outperform Biggert’s 2012 numbers.

Also, Senger or any other GOP challenger will not have to contend with the coattails of Illinois’ native son, President Barack Obama, in 2014 — or ever again.

But if Republicans make another poor showing here in 2014, it is hard to see how they will invest time and money in this district down the line. Also, Democrats point out that Foster outperformed Obama in the district in 2012.

Senger lives in Naperville, a suburb west of Chicago. She has served in Illinois House since 2009. Before her political career, she was a financial adviser. Her state committee assignments are related to finance.

A campaign blog is already set up, but there isn’t much to it.

* For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40, but Pat Quinn narrowly lost it 46-45. Mark Kirk won it 48-45. So, yeah, the numbers are very different in off years. But it’s still gonna be uphill for her as long as Foster does his job.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - LincolnLounger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    Certainly uphill, but if we have another “wave” election, then who knows? If Joe Walsh can get elected . . . .


  2. - WizzardOfOzzie - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Run Darlene Run! And then the GOP caucus will be down to a total of 3 reasonable, intelligent members.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Seventeen …17 points … tough “ask”.

    Bill Foster, himself, is NOT the same “Bill Foster” that won, then lost …

    I hope they are not looking at the TOTAL Illinois trend in POTUS-Year and Off-Year …and then NOT factoring in the District’s profile vs. Foster, and then 17 - point spread vs. the District Profile as it was drawn.

    The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    Food for thought …


  4. - downstate lib - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    Uphill, probably, but worth a shot. It’s not like she can reasonably predict ever being in the IL House Majority.


  5. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:40 pm:

    So she’s meeting with the entire gop house delegation except schock? What’s that about?


  6. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:46 pm:

    ===The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    National Journal and others take the old districts and recreate the new ones by precinct–it used to take a lot of time, but now it’s fairly fast. I would imagine she’s using the new districts recreated in the old election. But yes, if she isn’t using the new districts recreated using the old numbers, a different story.


  7. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:51 pm:

    I forgot that Foster won by nearly 17. If you grew up in that neck of the woods, it’s pretty hard to believe. People were too nice to laugh at Democratic candidates back in the day, much less vote for them.

    The voters have changed, the GOP has changed, or both.


  8. - RNUG Fan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:53 pm:

    The Dailykos Pres data by dist is really nice but it tells you nothing about an off -year. Also off -years have been really unpredictable.
    Obama and Quinn are doing their best to help the Republicans why not give it a try.
    I will go that data to pint our partisanship has really hardened and it looks like fewer people are paying attention to downballot races and going straight ticket
    That means most decisions will be in primaries and fewer and fewer districts


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    - ArchPundit -,

    I am also throwing in the fact that this “Bill Foster” is not the same as the last “Bill Foster” that won and then lost. Once you lose, you run differently then you ever ran before you ever lost.

    Some will say that state Rep. Senger is not Biggert running against the POTUS-Year issues. True. Congressman Bill Foster is now an incumbent, who knows how it stings to lose a Congressional seat.

    Like I said, I am quibbling, but when we are talking 17 points, really, no matter how you slice it, it’s still a tough “ask”, and if state Rep. Senger wants to make a “go” of it, good luck.


  10. - frustrated GOP - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    It’s a district built for Foster. Also, wasn’t she off for the last 2 weeks from Session? Why didn’t she meet then? Isn’t she suppose to be working right now? Just saying. Run, but do it when you’re not suppose to be in Springfield.
    After two weeks off, now you need to travel to DC to meet with people who have offices in their districts? Isn’t that’s what fridays are for? Reps travel home to actually be with and help the voters of the district?


  11. - Boone's is Back - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:05 pm:

    I would be scared of Senger if I were Foster. She would be a good fit for that district, and a formidable opponent.


  12. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:17 pm:

    If I was really cynical, I’d form an exploratory committee, raise $200K from people who care about federal issues and then defer to another candidate and convert the federal money to state money.


  13. - Judgment Day - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:18 pm:

    “….as long as Foster does his job.”

    That’s the real question. If Foster goes all “Dee Cee” on his district like he did last time, well, it will likely be “See Ya, Bill” for the second time. We’ll see if he learned anything from the first time.


  14. - Brendan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:26 pm:

    “For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40…”

    Did you do a precinct by precinct analysis? Because “this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.


  15. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    ===”this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.===

    No kidding. This is from an analysis of the new district.


  16. - anonymoose - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    Rep. Senger, from my past experience as she is now my former State Representative, provided excellent constituent services. Sent her an e-mail a couple of times and she was always back in touch quickly with a well-thought out position. She was on the Naperville City Council too. I will sign up today and offer to make a contribution.

    Respectfully, Ms. Biggert ran a rather tired campaign. She sounded tired, looked tired. Honestly, I sent in a small contribution to Rep. Biggert and it took weeks to get a “thank you.” That being said, I have yet to hear as much as a peep out of the less-than-exciting Bill Foster or any of the other Democrats who took over as my legislators in 2013. Pulse check anyone?


  17. - Shore - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    the trouble with these districts is that republicans have had a horrible time going democrat to republican in suburban areas around the country. They’ve lost these races because of the right shift in the party and the bush baggage, but outside of 2010 they’ve struggled to swim against their own party’s social conservatism, corruption, failed dc leadership and inability to generate a domestic policy message that appeals beyond the base.


  18. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:43 pm:

    Shore, that’s about right. It’s the curse of the success of the Southern GOP gerrymander.


  19. - Just The Way It Is One - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 7:06 pm:

    Sure, Rep. Senger is more than welcome enough to waste her time and money on a run–except for perhaps raising some important issues to the National Debate in Washington, although methinks Bill would more likely act concerned during such a campaign against him, like maybe he should re-consider his positions on some matters, if she, say, scrounged up 40%+ of the final vote…but upon re-election you could safely bet he’ll just keep on voting the same way he ever has since he 1st got into Congress…! But what the heck–bring the race on!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Rauner's smart moves
* Turn on the Wayback Machine
* "RNUG" looks ahead
* Budgetary war-gaming leads to panic
* Wild tales flourishing
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Apple’s Black Friday deal: Donations to (RED) AIDS nonprofit with purchase
        * Luxury Watchmakers Cracking Down on 'Pirated' Smartwatch Faces
        * One More Line is a hypnotic, highly addictive new game
        * RHA T10i Review: Earbuds That Go Above And Beyond To Suit All Tastes
        * T-Mobile Doubles The Number Of Music Streaming Services That Don’t Count Towards Data Caps
        * What can we expect from the OnePlus Two?
        * LINE releases new match 3 puzzle game Trio

        * What Free Apps Are You Most Thankful For This Year?
        * Hootsuite’s Next Play: Ads and E-Commerce
        * Google Will Help You With Black Friday Shopping
        * FAA Will Reportedly Require Drone Operators To Have A Pilot’s License
        * Here’s how to add tap-to-wake on your Nexus 6
        * Top 20 Tech Black Friday Deals
        * Don't Try to Warm Frostbite with Friction

        * Addition of Adam LaRoche could be a slow burner for hot stove season
        * Terrerobytes: Waiting for Adam LaRoche
        * With LaRoche on board, Abreu will benefit
        * Sources: White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Sources: White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Sources: White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Abreu will benefit from LaRoche's presence

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Leafs Express Condolences Following Passing Of .....
        * Pat Quinn Passes..
        * Former Canucks coach, GM Pat Quinn dead at 71..
        * Hockey community shares memories of Pat Quinn..
        * Pat Quinn, 1943-2014..
        * Auditorium Theatre to celebrate 125th birthday..
        * AP Sources: Hagel resigning as Defense secretary..
        * Judge denies bid to halt state's fracking rules..
        * N.J. Lottery Misses Christie Revenue Under Priv.....
        * Illinois universities warned of 'dire' budget cuts..


        * Ex-owner of Chicago Rush football team arrested
        * Chicago archbishop apologizes for priest sex abuse
        * Monday last day to file to run for Chicago mayor
        * Champaign native named Rhodes Scholar
        * US judge to sentence reputed drug-lord lieutenant
        * Illinois universities warned of 'dire' budget cuts
        * FAA probing plane's emergency Illinois landing
        * 8.3M vehicle on Illinois Tollway this Thanksgiving
        * Waukegan looking for Ray Bradbury statue ideas
        * Church members each get $500 to do good for world

        * Rauner tackles transition agenda
        * Attorney general warns of immigration scams
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court next
        * State to refund $60 million in retiree health care money
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court likely
        * Illinois pension case likely headed to high court
        * Judge: Pension ruling to come Friday
        * Rauner mum on fixes for ‘dire’ state finances, wants Quinn to freeze hiring
        * Rauner mum on fixes for ‘dire’ state finances
        * Judge to hear pension law arguments today

        * Chicago archbishop apologizes for priest sex abuse
        * Guess which day Illinois roads will be most packed this Thanksgiving
        * Here's how Chicago church members are spending their $500
        * Obama's Chicago visit tomorrow will focus on immigration order
        * Chicago's neon signs shine in new book


        * NFL passes 1st big test
        * Let gov’s veto on ride sharing rules stand
        * The Watchdogs: Rauner adviser Poshard's pension bonanza
        * As prisons swell, Illinois needs wiser policies
        * Business owners seeking pot shop licenses in Illinois faced lawsuits elsewhere
        * Out-of-power comet lander deserves praise
        * Chicago on cusp of election that matters
        * Obama announcing at 10 am Chicago time Hagel resignation
        * Obama announcing at 10:10 am Chicago time Hagel resignation
        * Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel stepping down: sources


        * Fioretti turns in petitions for Emanuel challenge
        * United adds Chicago-Dublin direct flight starting next summer
        * Investigation continues into fire that killed 32 horses
        * Chicago scientist's Nobel medal for DNA discovery could fetch $3.5M
        * Cause of building collapse that injured 2 women under investigation
        * Most stop-for-pedestrian signs hit by drivers, city data show
        * Up to 3 inches of snow today as temperatures drop
        * Ferguson grand jury expected to resume deliberations Monday
        * Feds: 6 plotted to beat restaurant worker to collect $40,000 debt
        * Man, 70, dies after his car hits pole in Ashburn


        * WUIS/SJ-R Business Report: Transmission Line Meetings Planned; More Space For Senior Living
        * Part Timers & Manufacturing in Illinois Feeling a Slow Economic Recovery
        * Photographer Kari Bedford Puts "Girls In Focus"
        * Midwest Travel: Starved Rock In The Winter
        * Ears Turn To Supreme Court For Next Pensions Cue
        * Listen to State Week - November 21, 2014
        * State To Refund Retiree Health Care Money
        * Labor unions celebrate judge's ruling against Illinois pension law
        * Judge Finds Reductions In Pension Benefits Unconstitutional
        * Pension Ruling Imminent


        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 24, 2014
        * Our Opinion: Illiana project too risky for tapped-out Illinois
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Sen. Manar backs aide Watson over Cahnman, Proctor in Ward 5
        * Karen Cox: Shop for a cause
        * Andy Shaw: Protect Illinois’ FOIA law from unnecessary tinkering
        * Quote of the Day: Sunday, Nov. 23, 2014
        * Rauner tackles transition agenda
        * Attorney general warns of immigration scams
        * Deckle McLean: Plagiarism comes with a price
        * Charles Krauthammer: The climate pact swindle


        * Uncertainty fuels speculation on Ferguson decision
        * AP Sources: Hagel resigning as Defense secretary
        * 8.3 million vehicles on Illinois Tollway this Thanksgiving
        * U.S. judge to sentence reputed drug-lord lieutenant
        * Water line break causes early dismissal
        * Buffalo residents ready for melt, possible evacuations
        * Daily Digest 11/24/14
        * Jarvis’ research earns professional recognition
        * Wind advisory issued for East Central Illinois
        * Scenes from North Main Street re-opening


        * Gusty winds, snow expected in some suburbs Monday
        * Beef the new Red Bull as burger craze takes off in Hong Kong
        * Former Chicago Jesuit leader didn't report abusive priest
        * Missing Hoffman Estates girl found in Mount Prospect
        * Sources: Hagel resigning as Defense Secretary

        * Rep. Kinzinger Leads Charge in House to Co...
        * Vet, lawmaker: 3,000 troops will not be en...
        * U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger re-elected to 16t...
        * Rep. Adam Kinzinger Joins Eyewitness News ...
        * Kinzinger easily wins 3rd term in Washington
        * Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger return to C...
        * Adam Kinzinger Defeats Randall Olsen In Il...
        * Congressman Says He’s Still Deciding What ...
        * Adam Kinzinger chosen to represent Illinoi...
        * Republicans flock to Peoria headquarters

        * Durbin Releases Statement On EPA Decision ......

        * Jackson: Menendez prods Obama over ISIS...

        * The [Tuesday] Papers
        * Abe Lincoln: Good For The Jews
        * Five Guantanamo Bay prisoners released
        * Chicago Radio Hosts Fired via Twitter - Live On-Air [video]
        * Stantis: ILL. pensions
        * Rauner team tells higher ed director to prepare for 30% budget cut
        * Chicago Elected School Board Referendum Signatures To Be Filed Monday
        * Fioretti, Garcia To Submit Signatures For Mayor Monday
        * Immigration Advocates, Elected Officials React To Obama's Executive Action
        * Decision On Illinois Pension Case Expected Friday


        * Illinois Residents Asked to Put the Tobacco Down - Support the Great American Smokeout – November 20
        * Governor Quinn Statement on President Obama’s Executive Action
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Selection of New University of Illinois President
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Senate Committee Passage of Minimum Wage Legislation
        * Governor Quinn Statement on the Installation of Archbishop Blase Cupich




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller