SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Senger prepping race against Foster

Thursday, Apr 11, 2013

* Democrat Bill Foster won by about 17 points last year over longtime Republican Judy Biggert. This is uphill at best

State Rep. Darlene Senger will meet with Republicans in Washington, D.C., this week in preparation to challenge Democratic Rep. Bill Foster next year.

Senger will sit down with staff at the National Republican Congressional Committee, as well as with House GOP leadership and U.S. Chamber of Commerce officials, according to a knowledgeable Illinois Republican.

She is also scheduled to speak with several Illinois members, including GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger, Rodney Davis, Peter Roskam, Randy Hultgren and John Shimkus.

Republicans do not expect Senger will formally declare her candidacy until later this month. In early March, Senger told CQ Roll Call that she was “considering” the race.

* Rep. Senger explained her thinking last month

“Part of what we’re looking at now is a trend in Illinois — [in] all of the non-presidential years, there is a way different race voter profile than there is during the presidential years,” Senger said on why she could outperform Biggert’s 2012 numbers.

Also, Senger or any other GOP challenger will not have to contend with the coattails of Illinois’ native son, President Barack Obama, in 2014 — or ever again.

But if Republicans make another poor showing here in 2014, it is hard to see how they will invest time and money in this district down the line. Also, Democrats point out that Foster outperformed Obama in the district in 2012.

Senger lives in Naperville, a suburb west of Chicago. She has served in Illinois House since 2009. Before her political career, she was a financial adviser. Her state committee assignments are related to finance.

A campaign blog is already set up, but there isn’t much to it.

* For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40, but Pat Quinn narrowly lost it 46-45. Mark Kirk won it 48-45. So, yeah, the numbers are very different in off years. But it’s still gonna be uphill for her as long as Foster does his job.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - LincolnLounger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    Certainly uphill, but if we have another “wave” election, then who knows? If Joe Walsh can get elected . . . .


  2. - WizzardOfOzzie - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Run Darlene Run! And then the GOP caucus will be down to a total of 3 reasonable, intelligent members.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Seventeen …17 points … tough “ask”.

    Bill Foster, himself, is NOT the same “Bill Foster” that won, then lost …

    I hope they are not looking at the TOTAL Illinois trend in POTUS-Year and Off-Year …and then NOT factoring in the District’s profile vs. Foster, and then 17 - point spread vs. the District Profile as it was drawn.

    The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    Food for thought …


  4. - downstate lib - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    Uphill, probably, but worth a shot. It’s not like she can reasonably predict ever being in the IL House Majority.


  5. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:40 pm:

    So she’s meeting with the entire gop house delegation except schock? What’s that about?


  6. - ArchPundit - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:46 pm:

    ===The only reason I am quibbling on this, is that this district, as drawn, has NOT had an Off-Year to base any numbers on, specifically against Bill Foster to boot.

    National Journal and others take the old districts and recreate the new ones by precinct–it used to take a lot of time, but now it’s fairly fast. I would imagine she’s using the new districts recreated in the old election. But yes, if she isn’t using the new districts recreated using the old numbers, a different story.


  7. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:51 pm:

    I forgot that Foster won by nearly 17. If you grew up in that neck of the woods, it’s pretty hard to believe. People were too nice to laugh at Democratic candidates back in the day, much less vote for them.

    The voters have changed, the GOP has changed, or both.


  8. - RNUG Fan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:53 pm:

    The Dailykos Pres data by dist is really nice but it tells you nothing about an off -year. Also off -years have been really unpredictable.
    Obama and Quinn are doing their best to help the Republicans why not give it a try.
    I will go that data to pint our partisanship has really hardened and it looks like fewer people are paying attention to downballot races and going straight ticket
    That means most decisions will be in primaries and fewer and fewer districts


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    - ArchPundit -,

    I am also throwing in the fact that this “Bill Foster” is not the same as the last “Bill Foster” that won and then lost. Once you lose, you run differently then you ever ran before you ever lost.

    Some will say that state Rep. Senger is not Biggert running against the POTUS-Year issues. True. Congressman Bill Foster is now an incumbent, who knows how it stings to lose a Congressional seat.

    Like I said, I am quibbling, but when we are talking 17 points, really, no matter how you slice it, it’s still a tough “ask”, and if state Rep. Senger wants to make a “go” of it, good luck.


  10. - frustrated GOP - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    It’s a district built for Foster. Also, wasn’t she off for the last 2 weeks from Session? Why didn’t she meet then? Isn’t she suppose to be working right now? Just saying. Run, but do it when you’re not suppose to be in Springfield.
    After two weeks off, now you need to travel to DC to meet with people who have offices in their districts? Isn’t that’s what fridays are for? Reps travel home to actually be with and help the voters of the district?


  11. - Boone's is Back - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:05 pm:

    I would be scared of Senger if I were Foster. She would be a good fit for that district, and a formidable opponent.


  12. - Carl Nyberg - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:17 pm:

    If I was really cynical, I’d form an exploratory committee, raise $200K from people who care about federal issues and then defer to another candidate and convert the federal money to state money.


  13. - Judgment Day - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:18 pm:

    “….as long as Foster does his job.”

    That’s the real question. If Foster goes all “Dee Cee” on his district like he did last time, well, it will likely be “See Ya, Bill” for the second time. We’ll see if he learned anything from the first time.


  14. - Brendan - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:26 pm:

    “For perspective, Rod Blagojevich won this district 47-40…”

    Did you do a precinct by precinct analysis? Because “this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.


  15. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    ===”this district” did not exist in its current form the last time Blago ran.===

    No kidding. This is from an analysis of the new district.


  16. - anonymoose - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    Rep. Senger, from my past experience as she is now my former State Representative, provided excellent constituent services. Sent her an e-mail a couple of times and she was always back in touch quickly with a well-thought out position. She was on the Naperville City Council too. I will sign up today and offer to make a contribution.

    Respectfully, Ms. Biggert ran a rather tired campaign. She sounded tired, looked tired. Honestly, I sent in a small contribution to Rep. Biggert and it took weeks to get a “thank you.” That being said, I have yet to hear as much as a peep out of the less-than-exciting Bill Foster or any of the other Democrats who took over as my legislators in 2013. Pulse check anyone?


  17. - Shore - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    the trouble with these districts is that republicans have had a horrible time going democrat to republican in suburban areas around the country. They’ve lost these races because of the right shift in the party and the bush baggage, but outside of 2010 they’ve struggled to swim against their own party’s social conservatism, corruption, failed dc leadership and inability to generate a domestic policy message that appeals beyond the base.


  18. - wordslinger - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 2:43 pm:

    Shore, that’s about right. It’s the curse of the success of the Southern GOP gerrymander.


  19. - Just The Way It Is One - Thursday, Apr 11, 13 @ 7:06 pm:

    Sure, Rep. Senger is more than welcome enough to waste her time and money on a run–except for perhaps raising some important issues to the National Debate in Washington, although methinks Bill would more likely act concerned during such a campaign against him, like maybe he should re-consider his positions on some matters, if she, say, scrounged up 40%+ of the final vote…but upon re-election you could safely bet he’ll just keep on voting the same way he ever has since he 1st got into Congress…! But what the heck–bring the race on!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Stay tuned
* Another collectivist rag weighs in
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - This just in...
* Today's quotable
* Question of the day
* Munger has "exciting news," Mendoza posts very long ad
* Emanuel says Rauner has "wasted" his term
* I just can't
* Maybe not
* A look at the elected Chicago school board bill
* Caption contest!
* More like this, please
* AG Madigan announces huge VW settlement
* Rauner blasts Dems
* Scherer opponent drops out
* Rauner poll: Voters oppose CPS "bailout"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** UPDATED x1 - Madigan won't say if he has the votes *** House not yet in agreement with Senate
* *** UPDATED x1 - Bills filed *** Rauner unveils his stopgap plan
* SDems leak K-12 funding plan
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Samsung Pay adopters stateside yet again offered $20 eCertificate
* Plethora of Galaxy Note 7 information corroborated by Murtazin, including 3,600 mAh battery
* iPhone 7 metal chassis leaks, Google-made Android phone & more – Pocketnow Daily
* Akamai: global average connection speed up 12 percent, bye bye IPv4
* Deal: Turn your smartphone into a 3D gaming console
* ZTE can continue U.S. trade through end of August with latest extension
* New Google Cast SDK Version 3 released

* White Sox shut out by Twins in opener
* White Sox continue to struggle vs. Central rivals
* White Sox shut out by Twins in opener
* Less than 2 days left to cast your All-Star vote
* Hit in 57 games, win $5.6 million
* 2016 Draft: Signing and bonus tracker
* Shields aims to build on previous outing as he faces Twins

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Opinion: Solve budget crisis now - Herald & Review..
* Dire scenarios for Illinois in second year with.....
* GOP, Democrats say progress made in Illinois bu.....
* Progress made in long leaders' meeting in Sprin.....


* Human Services caseworker pleads guilty to theft charges
* Judge orders Illinois to add PTSD to medical marijuana list
* Illinois' share of multistate VW settlement nearly $29M
* Witness in Urbana murder trial shot while sitting in car
* Strangled Chicago woman's son sues city, Cook County
* Rauner pushes new stopgap budget, rips Democrats' plan
* Dire scenarios for Illinois in second year without budget
* Illinois residents asked to leave fireworks to the pros
* Illinois corrections owes city $1.2 million in utilities
* Officials: Starved Rock visitors should watch crowds

* Carlinville train station upgrade dependent on state budget
* Governor, leaders say progress made on budget deal
* Deadrick Wolfer suspends House race vs. Scherer
* Higher education coalition urges full funding for both 2016, 2017
* Judge orders Illinois to add PTSD to medical marijuana list
* Deadrick Wolfer suspends Illinois House race vs. Scherer
* Former state worker pleads guilty to theft charges
* Rauner pushes new stopgap budget, rips Democrats' plan
* Dire scenarios for Illinois in second year without budget
* Illinois' share of multistate VW settlement nearly $29M

* First Midwest buys Standard Bancshares in $365 million deal
* Trunk Club to shut Goose Island operation, cut 250 jobs
* Little sign of budget progress as Springfield stalls over CPS spending
* Dire scenarios for Illinois in second year without budget
* Head of TSA in Chicago resigns


* 3-year-old boy among 15 wounded in Chicago shootings Tuesday
* 4-year-old girl struck by car in Lawndale
* Man critically wounded in Brainerd shooting
* Man walks into hospital after Lawndale shooting
* 67-year-old man shot in West Garfield Park
* Man wounded in Austin shooting
* Man shot, critically wounded in North Lawndale drive-by
* Fire officials: Woman fatally struck by Red Line train downtown
* It’s a mad, mad, Maddon world as Cubs win in 15 innings
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for June 29, 2016


* Producers credit the people of Aurora for movie's success
* At least 17 shot, including child, in separate attacks
* Cubs' reliever Travis Wood on playing left field
* Joe Maddon on using three relievers in left field
* Cubs' Javier Baez on his grand slam
* Initiative to legalize recreational use of pot in California qualifies for November ballot
* 36 dead, 147 wounded in suicide attack on Istanbul airport
* All hands on deck in Cubs' 15-inning win
* Woman fatally struck by CTA train in Loop
* White Sox's AL Central woes continue in shutout loss to Twins


* Enough: Illinois' budget standoff must be resolved
* The story behind our front page editorial
* Carlinville train station upgrade dependent on state budget
* Governor, leaders say progress made on budget deal
* Deadrick Wolfer suspends House race vs. Scherer
* Guest Column: Illinois legislators fail to fix broken biometrics law
* Our View: The story behind Wednesday's front page editorial
* Higher education coalition urges full funding for both 2016, 2017
* Judge orders Illinois to add PTSD to medical marijuana list
* Deadrick Wolfer suspends Illinois House race vs. Scherer


* Gun violence topic for Champaign council applicants
* Bollant: Summitt was 'great role model'
* Ex-UI coach Law remembers Summitt
* Groce moving on from Nunn
* UI hoops recruit glance: Trent Frazier
* UPDATED: Teachers picket at Unit 4
* PODCAST: SportsTalk 06-28-16
* Judge will recommend boot camp in drug case
* PODCAST: Luke Boyce, Shatterglass Studios 06-28-16
* Man arrested after burglary report faces variety of charges


* New Las Vegas club has edge over NHL's 2000 expansion teams
* Records: City lawyers weak link in police accountability
* Suicide blasts kill dozens at Istanbul airport
* Smolinski's 3-run pinch-hit HR leads A's past Giants 13-11
* Lincecum battered by Astros in Angels' 7-1 loss

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Illinois to get $17 million for HIV assist......

* Cassidy, Klobuchar, Johnson, Kirk Introduc......
* GOP Senator Mark Kirk Immediately Politici......

* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Does overtime amount to overkill?
* Wednesdays Are "CAPS Night Out" in Buttercup Park; Volunteers and Participants Sought
* Berman: What Would Gay Christians Have Straight Christians To Do?
* Thorner/O'Neil: Brexit's Fine Line Between Committing and Correcting
* Britain's Prime Minister To Resign After 'Brexit' Vote
* Lucas Museum Abandons Plans To Build In Chicago (UPDATED)
* Progress Illinois On Abbreviated Publishing Schedule
* IL Reproductive Rights Groups Hail High Court Decision
* What's the Difference Between England, Britain and the U.K.?


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller