Dem infrastructure, Power of incumbency, Dem leanings of the state, and what I see as a left-moving (or at least anti-tea party) nationwide electorate, as evidenced in part by the NYC mayoral race, all favor the Democrat, whoever he/she is. None of the GOP candidates are strong enough to overcome the disadvantages.
At the end of the day, there just aren’t enough Republicans in the state and the current crop of potential nominees will not sufficiently attract enough soft Dems and Indys to carry the day. So long as the Republican Party stays beholden to the far right, it will remain a minority party, even against a candidate that leaves a lot of us just shaking our heads.
Quinn lost downstate last time. I don’t think many Chicagoans realize the difference it will make when he loses downstate by a landslide this time. His losses downstate will be much larger than his narrow margin of victory in ‘10. All Republicans must do is nominate someone who will do reasonably well with independent voters in the collar counties. Election over.
Daley was right. Nominating Quinn is a sure loss for Democrats.
R’s pull out a victory by the slimmest of margins regardless of who they put up. Quinn gets saddled with the state’s financial mess and it costs him. Lisa Madigan would have won in a landslide even with her fathers name. This cycle starts the pendulum swinging back to the R side and when MJM retires/passes accelerates it. R House as well for the 2020 map. MJM stepping aside to let his daughter run would have kept Illinois under D control for even more decades… now it will be seen looking backward as the start of the undoing.
I voted yes. A lot can (and will) happen before the election but so far it looks like the Republicans are going down the same old right-wing path. Rauner’s millions could make a difference but will he get past the right-wingers to even get the nomination? Maybe Dillard and Brady split that vote enough to let Rutherford or Rauner win, but then again, maybe Rutherford and Rauner split the more moderate vote, Dillard bombs, and Brady squeezes in again. I think Quinn beats either Dillard or Brady. I think he can also beat Rauner in a number of ways. Rutherford is probably the Republicans’ best hope against Quinn but what’s his path to the nomination? Right now, Quinn can focus on raising funds for the general election and just hold ribbon-cuttings to stay in the public eye. And assuming he does sign a pension reform bill at some point, he’ll be able to use that, too. A lot of things seem to be breaking in his favor. But like I said at the start, this election’s a long way off, so, no, I wouldn’t bet money on anybody just yet.
I know everyone in this business loves to play this game….but I hate it. It’s too early to tell. This time 4 years ago we all said Quinn was toast, and he managed to squeak it through. He may do so again.
I voted No, he will lose, but it really does depend on who succeeds on the Republican side. if Brady gets the nod again, then Quinn wins. If Rutherford wins the Republican nod, then Quinn loses. I don’t think Rauner or Dillard get through the primary. but all of this is sheer speculation on my part with nothing to actually back it up. it is a long way to the election so it is just a guessing game anyway!
I voted yes, but only if the GOP doesn’t nominate it’s own IL version of Mitt Romney. I think voters chose to give Quinn the benefit of the doubt and a full term than to gamble with an unknown in Brady. Whether it’s Brady or someone else, they won’t make the same mistake this go-round, allowing the Dems to define them and hope Quinn’s negatives are high enough it won’t matter. Quinn has proven clearly he’s not up for the job and has no solutions. It’s embarrassing to be from IL right now, and there’s little to know hope for improvement with Quinn at the helm another four years. Up to the GOP to get it done.
It says here that it’s Quinn over Rutherford in a nail-biter. Brady is yesterday’s news and has no cash. Also, now that he’s better known, moderates will stay away from him. Rauner has cash, but it doesn’t seem to be moving the needle. Dillard is shifting hard to the right to get through the primary, which will hurt him with moderates and will not convince hard core right who will stick with Brady. That leaves Rutherford who seems to be running the best campaign so far of the Republicans. Has cash. Has infrastructure. Appeals to moderates, which helps in general, but also helps in primary if he can paint all of his opponents with the uber-conservative brush. I think many of us underestimate Quinn the campaigner because will see how he bungles his day job of running the state.
I think Quinn has been branded as an ineffective governor for too long and that’s gonna hurt on election day. On the other hand, if the GOP nominates Brady then Quinn has the edge. If the GOP nominates Rauner or Dillard then I think the GOP has a very slight edge to win.
I said yes. Maybe its because you talked me into Brady’s path to victory with your column, but I think the GOP electorate will again nominate someone who is just too far right to persuade the dissatisfied Dems from crossing over to vote Republican. Though, them again, the heavy dose of Rauner bashing makes me think internal polling is showing him running strong.
“Feel” matters and Rutherford/Rauner just “feel” more palatable for Independents than the other two GOP nominees.
I think in the end it all depends on how the area in West Central Illinois votes. It has been traditionally Democratic turf, but swung hard tea party right in 2010. Then it all swung back to Obama in 2012. (Quinn got 28% of the major party vote in Leitch’s 73rd district in 2010, Obama got 46% in 2012. Quinn got 35% of the major party vote in Moffitt’s 74th district in 2010, but Obama got 52% in 2012, Quinn got 37% of the major party vote in Hammond’s 93rd Dist and Obama got 49% in 2012 and so on)
If it stays Demoratic Quinn wins
If it swings back hard right, Quinn loses
Southern Illinois, Chicago, and the suburbs will probably all vote the same way as before–they didn’t have the tremendous swings that the West Central Part of the state did.
What happens in West Central Ill holds the key.
Yes. There is a smart guy here who posts under the handle circular firing squad, and with good reason. The GOP will lose as much or more as PQ will win by tracking too far right and with intraparty drama.
I like Pat Quinn personally and love some of the things he’s done over the years, but he’s not a very effective Governor. But I will vote for him again. I can’t vote for a GOP candidate who will be convinced since I did I must agree with him that it’s okay to discriminate against some residents of Illinois.
I think PQ has this one wrapped up, given the blueness of the state and the power of the incumbency. But I think Rutherford is the most likable and hard-working of the bunch, and he might be able to squeak out a win.
Sadly, I suspect Quinn gets re-elected. I think the big unknown is the implementation of Obamacare. The influx of ailing people, shortage of doctors, bureaucratic incompetence could be a disaster that significantly alters the national political landscape.
It depends on whomever is the Republican nominee. I know Republicans who held their noses and voted for Quinn over Brady because Bill was considered too extreme in regards to social issues. Rauner would not appeal to many Republican educators and state employees in the suburbs and downstate. Dillard or Rutherford would get more of their votes.
Another big factor will be the economy–if it gets worse in IL then Quinn will take the blame. If it improves then he gets the credit.
No. Quinn generates neither excitment nor leadership. Look for a low turnout. Also, as one of last week’s commentors made reference,……we are talking about “cousin Brucie and the clown car crowd.” The voters have seen enough.
- Living in Machiaville - Monday, Sep 23, 13 @ 3:33 pm:
Talking with a union official the other day and he opined that downstate will be a landslide against Quinn. That collars will generally swing that way too and the Cook vote will be down. So, Quinn is the loser. Me? I don’t have that kind of faith.
As long as the Republicans continue to allow the “purity” folks to run everything they will continue to loose statewide elections. From what has been happening I don’t se that changing. If Rutherford somehow gets the nomination, the right wingers will eat their own and either not vote at all or bad mouth him enough to drop enough possible voters to assure another 4 years of all Democratic control and continued stagnation and infighting for all. Not a rosy outlook but its becoming hard to have one here in this state…
Even though the shed may have some sharper tools, he will get re-elected only because he has a D after his name. The bright spot if any, is the legislature can over ride any veto he may do to try and top Jerry Brown from CA. This state will be stuck in neutral for another election cycle.
I’m betting on a Rutherford v Quinn race with Rutherford easily winning. It’ll be harder for Rutherford to beat Rauner than it will be to beat Quinn, but in the end Rutherford’s tireless campaigning overcomes Rauner’s money.
i think so. the fundamentals are stronger for quinn this time. senator durbin will be at the top of the ticket — and will win in a landslide. the few places where republicans will compete in the congressional races will only boost turnout for democrats “downstate.” i don’t see many people voting for durbin, bustos (for example) and then some republican candidate for governor.
the economy will (likely) be better — and, if not, republicans will probably be blamed for it (says the tea party shuts down the federal government, for example).
but probably the biggest fundamental that favors quinn will be outside money. with all the other governor’s races out there, i doubt the republican candidate — whoever he may be — will attract much attention from GOP superpacs or the RGA. quinn, otoh, because of his service to the DGA, should get a boost from them, should he require it.
i think this is an easier race for quinn this time…
Quinn will lose. Democrats are motivated by the top of the ticket and Quinn motivates even less four years on than he did in 2010, if that is possible. He only won by a sliver then against a weak Rep. candidate who barely won his own primary. There was some “lets’ at least give the guy a chance” sentiment given the short time he had been in office in 2010. Now he has had the chance and has nothing to show for it. He only got 33% in my county compared with 52% for Obama in 2008 and 45% in 2012. The Dem voters will simply not show up for this guy. There may also be a divided government may be a good thing at this point sentiment among independents.
I voted Quinn will prevail. That Koch Bros. style messaging of bad Quinn and that other favorite, Quinn bad won’t work in Illinois (it didn’t work when someone tried it on Madigan, either). Unless the Republicans can come up with a better message, it’s Quinn’s by default.
It’s tragic really, but I think he’ll easily win reelection now. The reasons have nothing to do with merit (or lack thereof) and have everything to do with the state GOP moving consistently further to the right. I say this as someone who would readily embrace the principles of smaller government and fiscal responsibility - but not when it’s wrapped in a blanket of intolerance. And once again, it’s the citizenry who pay the price.
Think about how that’s going to work in the 13th district. It will be a highly competitive race in a district full of public employees who loath Quinn. Don’t underestimate how hated Quinn is in Champaign and Springfield. He will likely do even worse than Blago did in both towns in ‘06. Many Democrats in that district will skip voting for Governor, if they vote at all. Having Quinn at the top of the ticket probably guarantees Rodney Davis will be re-elected to Congress.
If Dillard wasn’t doing his sudden, born again tea party thingy I’ve had said no. Quinn is so bad that I think there is an opening among Dems in Chicago along the lakefront, Fioretti’s South Loop area, etc. but the more he goes with this rightward shift the less possible it becomes. It helps them in primary, but hurts in general.
And I don’t feel sorry one whit for the whole lot of them, having grown up with Democrats making the exact same mistake.
The bottom line for me is that most of the Republican candidates are going to let the tax increase expire and probably all of them will oppose graduated tax reform (correct me if I’m wrong). That affects nearly every other issue in which money is being spent.
That clear line is what will bring people who lean Democrat out, if Quinn takes advantage of it.
I voted no. I think Quinn’s income tax and toll increases on everyone make it harder to play the populist who stands for the little guy. The little guy is being heavily taxed by Quinn. It’s really all the Republicans have to talk about.
- Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Sep 23, 13 @ 7:39 pm:
Most likely–he’s just too much of the great “Closer,” (2010 TWICE–2 cases in point!!)–(like the Mariano Rivera of Illinois POLitics, if you will), the “Comeback Kid,” “the luckiest politician around…!”
The Man just knows how to win the Big One somehow when it counts, and finds a WAY to do it (kind of like Mariano throwin’ that totally unexpected Cutter when he’s loaded the Bases with 2 Outs, and the count is 3-2, and the batter is frozen as the Umpire rings up the last out for another WIN/Rivera “SAVE…”)!!!
Hey, don’t you dare put the names of Mariano Rivera and Pat Quinn in the same sentence let alone the same paragraph! Mariano da man. Mariano’s the future hall of famer. Quinn is a doofus and a laughing stock.
Quinn is the Governor. The job is his until somebody beats him. Despite predictions to the contrary, he won last time. He isn’t going to give the job away, somebody is going to have to take it from him. That is certainly possible, but today I think Quinn will prevail.
I think anybody should be able to beat Quinn. But then again I’m not considering that Chicago votes 100%-D regardless of the candidates qualifications, performance, etc., so I see why he’s leading the Capitol Fax poll.
My take in my own little hamlet is that there will be a lower than normal GOP turnout. None of my GOP friends can find themselves able to generate any enthusiasm about any of the 4 GOP candidates for governor. They have “given up the ship” and feel that the Chicago-influence in Illinois politics is over-whelming and is only likely to grow stronger over the years. The union vote and the racial vote is just too much for a Republican candidate to overcome in a state-wide election. The last re-districting by the Illinois Democrat Party “sealed the fate” for Illinois to be “forever blue”. Apathy and frustration by Republican voters will guarantee Pat Quinn (and Company) of another 4 year term in office. Illinois was always blue but now Illinois even surpassed Massachusetts and has changed to “”indigo blue”.
Rauner v. Quinn: Quinn by a landslide. Just too easy for Quinn pull out the anti - daley stuff change the name and let em rip.
Dillard v. Quinn: Toss up Dillard seems to be waffling as we saw in the 04 election a flipflopper is not the name you want.
Repeat ‘10 probably the same result. Quinn gets to paint Brady as a knuckle dragging idjit. While Quinn loses votes downstate he would pick up same amount in Chicago.
Quinn v. Rutherford. Quinn loses big. Probably not a landslide but decisive. It is harder to paint Rutherford as a Wacko since most people know him and already have an opinion.
It would be nice if republicans would start of with the assumption that their candidate needs to have held a state wide office before running for Gov. Take McCann out of Carlinville and Springfield what works for his district is going to make him seem like a nutjob in Cook county. Vis-a-versa with Madigan and downstate.
I voted that Quinn wins. I’m not the brightest guy in the world, but even I can see that the Republican party is on the way down nationally. In a year that should by all rights be great for Republicans, they seem to be doing everything they can to ensure Democratic supremacy for years to come.
I just can’t see a pathway for a Red candidate in a Blue state during a national Blue upswing. But I could be wrong. - PN