Lethal weapon
Tuesday, Oct 8, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Kankakee Daily Journal…
Bill Brady said he’s learned enough from the election of 2010 to win in 2014.
Brady was the Republican nominee for governor in 2010 in Illinois. He led in the polls most of the way, then was defeated on election night by Democrat Pat Quinn. Brady lost by 32,000 votes, less than one percent of the popular vote. He carried 98 of Illinois’ 103 counties, including all those in The Daily Journal circulation area.
“I learned how big the state is,” he told the Kiwanis Club of Kankakee on Monday. “I learned that I didn’t spend enough time in Cook and the collar counties. I know we need to reach out to blacks and Latinos more,” he said.
OK, it’s nice that he says he learned some lessons, particularly about Cook County.
* But then he said this…
He supports concealed carry and would strengthen it. He said the ban on carrying while on public transportation was unfair to some who needed public transportation and who needed to protect themselves.
The entire Chicago media freaks the heck out when anybody mentions concealed carry on mass transit. Here’s an example, from the Chicago Tribune. And no it’s not a column or editorial, it’s supposed to be a straight news piece…
Worried transit officials asked lawmakers to imagine a CTA train packed with inebriated, possibly irate fans after a Cubs night game, then consider the wisdom of adding gun-toting passengers to the potentially volatile mix.
Or what if a thief grabbed a bus rider’s iPhone — a not-uncommon crime — and an armed commuter tried to stop the criminal?
* From a Tribune editorial…
Self-defense? On the CTA, the most commonly reported crime is theft. Commuters carrying smartphones, tablets and other portable electronics are frequent targets. Those incidents continued to climb last year, even as batteries, robberies and assaults declined slightly.
Having your iPhone snatched from your hands might be infuriating, but it doesn’t call for a lethal response. Allowing commuters to carry guns, though, would invite that sort of overreaction. An armed commuter who tried to stop a purse-snatching could easily harm or even kill others in a crowded bus or train.
There is no need to get into a debate about the merits of this issue in comments. Yes, the gun folks like the idea, but there’s no doubt that it’s a killer general election issue in Cook County. It’s just the reality.
If Brady wins the primary, I guarantee you this will be used against him.
If you want Cook County votes next November, you have to at least try to not freak out Cook County voters.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:36 am:
Any position that advocates less gun restrictions is going to be a loser in Cook County. It doesn’t matter whether the rest of the state agrees. If he says he want to compete in Cook County then he needs to lay off of the gun issue because he’s going to lose that battle with Cook County voters.
- Downstate Illinois - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:39 am:
Except, if thieves knew people carried guns there just might be less theft on mass transit.
Meanwhile my heart goes out to the black honors student who was arrested a few weeks ago for taking a gun to school for self defense. He’s not part of the problem in Chicago, he’s reacting to the problem in a logical way.
You don’t give up the right to self-defense in certain places. It’s your right. Period.
If Chicago police won’t do what’s necessary to get a grip on their gang problem, people will do what is necessary to protect themselves.
- Steve - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:43 am:
Who says the election will be decided on guns? I’m sure Brady will remind everyone about how Pat Quinn raised the state income tax 67% and raises tolls. If Cook County voters don’t mind paying higher taxes : vote for Pat Quinn. Anyway, Brady isn’t get to do much better in Cook County whatever his positions are. If Brady can convince 20,000 Cook County voters that higher taxes aren’t helping their pocketbook he should be fine.
- Hmmm - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:43 am:
Now I know why Brady lost. They didn’t count the votes in the 103rd county.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:44 am:
Ya just want to give Ole Bill Brady a hug and say,
“Bill, why do you go and say things you know will come back to haunt you later, especially this early in campaigns?”
Welp, Bill Brady is who he is … gotta respect it, doesn’t mean it can translate into votes, but you have to respect it. No snark.
BTW, Sen. Brady, you learn anything about GOTV and about a Ground Game in all this “reflection”?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:46 am:
===Who says the election will be decided on guns? ===
It’s not just guns, it’s guns on transit and that’s killer. People are easily diverted. See 2010.
- Metro Easterly - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:48 am:
They just don’t get it. Only people I ever saw that don’t understand pain. The only people screaming in pain now are white collar females under 45. Maybe if Bill was to ask Jason if he would reconsider they could ressurrect Pat Quinn’s dream team.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:49 am:
===If Brady can convince 20,000 Cook County voters that higher taxes aren’t helping their pocketbook he should be fine.===
By, “fine”, do you mean “wishing them” to the polls as the Dems have the GOTV ready from the uncontested Primary season for the Statewides, or do you mean having a narrative that can be on TV, with all the …money … Bill Brady has to work with?
Message is good, ideals is good …
But money, and infastructure, and coalitions… in a campaign sometimes wins the day … like four years ago.
Hope Bill Brady learned that too.
- Steve - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:52 am:
Rich:
Brady isn’t going to do well in Cook County no matter what his positions on guns are. He’s not going to do that much better than last time. Cook County voters will freak out about his views on many things. If CTA riders feel safe knowing that they can’t carry: that’s their right. But, they aren’t going to vote for Brady. They’d vote for the Green candidate before Brady. If Brady announced today that he supports Chicago’s 1982 handgun ban: he still wouldn’t do much better in Chicago.
- LincolnLounger - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:58 am:
And the last time Illinois elected a hard-line conservative to the Executive Mansion was when? I’m waiting. And how about a hard line conservative who already is woefully underfunded?
Voters care about the economy, but Democrats served up the largest tax increase in IL history and were rewarded with supermajorities.
Well, if gun issues don’t drive voters away, Brady’s hard-line positions against abortion in every instance and same sex marriage effectively will serve to drive away moderates and independents to run screaming. Personal PAC showed us how that works the last time.
Brady is a nice guy but a sure loser in any statewide general election.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 11:59 am:
===He’s not going to do that much better than last time.===
You base that on … what?
Next November is a long ways away, and whose to say Bill Brady hasn’t learned, and puts together a Ground Game, and finds voters, and Quinn can’t match his downstate numbers, or Collar numbers, and Brady finds those voters and eats into Cook…
Askin, based on… what?
- Chris - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:04 pm:
“If Chicago police won’t do what’s necessary to get a grip on their gang problem, people will do what is necessary to protect themselves.”
Even the ‘gang problem’ individuals have a right to self-defense. So, we’ll have even more mooks with guns shooting at each other.
Keep in mind that most of the shooting is the ‘gang problem’ shooting each other (which isn’t going to cease with legal C-C, bc (1) the ‘gang problem’ targets can’t get a C-C permit and (2) the ‘gang problem’ targets should be assumed to be carrying anyway) or the ‘gang problem’ firing into a crowd (which may or may not include the actual target), which is strong evidence of a total lack of concern about consequences (meaning–that the possibility of someone shooting back isn’t really going to stop that stupidity).
Maybe C-C makes the traveling suburbanite less fearful of the big, bad city, but I’ve yet to see a reasonable explanation of how C-C reduces the ‘gang problem’ Chicago actually has, instead of some Bernie Goetz-fantasy ‘gang problem’.
Which isn’t *at all* intended as an argument against C-C, but is an argument against using the Chicago ‘gang problem’/homicide issue (or some stolen iPhones–most of which are grab-n-dash rather than armed robberies, anyway–AND, remember that shooting some kid in the back isn’t ’self defense’ under Illinois law, whether he used a knife to take your iPhone or just snatched it) as a justification for C-C.
- Skeeter - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:08 pm:
Brady has never won a race where he had a serious Democratic opponent and it shows.
He’s completely out of touch.
Oswego is wrong.
When it comes to Brady, organization is irrelevant.
The more people in Cook County know about Brady, the less they like him.
The votes were not there in 2010 and there is no chance that they will be there in 2014.
When it comes to Brady, those votes do not exist. People here will not vote for the far right.
Brady right now is up in the polls, but he has no money, a terrible running mate, and ideas that most voters reject. He’s destined to be a footnote in this race.
- Steve - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:08 pm:
Oswego Willy
I think Brady can win but it will not be determined by doing that much better in Cook County. He needs a bigger turnout outside Cook County. Is it doable?? Only time will tell. It’s hard to change the votes of people who don’t care about the economy, taxes , or corruption in Cook County.
- Just Observing - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:10 pm:
=== It’s not just guns, it’s guns on transit and that’s killer. ===
I don’t think guns on transit is deciding factor for most Cook County voters. Heck, most Cook County voters don’t even take public transit.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:10 pm:
Then, JO, by all means go for it. See what happens.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:16 pm:
- Steve -,
You are missing the whole point;
You need to find your voters and vote your voters. Period. Brady did none of that last time and Quinn controlled Election Day and the GOTV and it showed as Quinn was dragged over the finish line.
- Skeeter -,
Again, you can’t judge “no GOTV” and say getting votes are maxed-out.
Can’t. We have no idea how many votes Brady left on the table because
a) turnout wasn’t 100%, and
b) Brady’s Crew did nothing to get voters in Cook to the polls at all.
Brady and Plummer hid from Cook. You can’t say all, every one, not one missing, votes for Bill Brady is maxed-out in Cook.
If ground Games didn’t matter, the Dems and especially HDems wouldn’t have them…
Just sayin.
- vise77 - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:24 pm:
“Except, if thieves knew people carried guns there just might be less theft on mass transit.
As a native downstater who has lived in Chicago a long time, I disagree. Many criminals don’t seem put off by the notion that cops have guns; some of those criminals shoot back. And I don’t completely trust the ability of even trained gun-owners to make a clean shot in an often very dense environment–even cops and military members miss from time to time, after all.
- Skeeter - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:24 pm:
“If ground Games didn’t matter, the Dems and especially HDems wouldn’t have them”
Dems have them because they have a message that appeals to voters.
If you have a message, then it is a matter of getting the people out who agree with the message.
You can’t get people out if they don’t like you.
- Steve - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:32 pm:
In fairness to Brady, if Rauner gets the GOP nomination is he really going to do any better in Cook County even with all his money????
- Skeeter - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:45 pm:
Rauner will do fine in Cook County.
Rauner has some chance of playing the role of the moderate. People here will vote for him.
They will never vote for Brady.
- Chavez-respecting Obamist - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 12:47 pm:
Transit rider here.
No guns. No way. Not ever.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 1:03 pm:
People who advocate for CC on public trans are people who never take the train in rush hour. I find the thought of a bunch of Bernhard Goetzes riding with me absolutely terrifying.
And before you think I’m unsympathetic to gun owners, know that I am one and will be getting a CC permit. But, I’m also sure I can’t pass certain gun rights advocates’ purity tests.
- RonOglesby - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 1:14 pm:
“Brady isn’t going to do well in Cook County no matter what his positions on guns are.”
True. And:
“People who advocate for CC on public trans are people who never take the train in rush hour. I find the thought of a bunch of Bernhard Goetzes riding with me absolutely terrifying.”
Uh. I rode the train from Aurora every day for almost 6 years. I was on a train when they STOPPED IT because some dufus saw a gun under a guys jacket and called 911 (the guy was a federal agent in a suit)…
Anyway, how many Bernhard Goetzes have you heard of besides hmm (which happened 30 years ago)…
That’s ok. When I train downtown now I will obviously freak less people out as they see me take my gun out and stuff it in my laptop bag in the parking lot.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 1:23 pm:
===Dems have them because they have a message that appeals to voters.===
So, if you don’t have a message that is appealing, you can’t have a ground game?
You can. There have been campaigns with horrible messages that had Ground Games …
So, unless you have a message that resonates without a Ground Game, you can NOT have an infastructure of a ground game to help the message?
That is pretty Dopey.
I think you are missing the point of how to run campaings.
Find voters. Find.
Get the voters to Vote.
No campaign, no one votes for your candidate.
Yikes!
- McLean Farmboy - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 1:30 pm:
I am more than a little concerned that the paper in Kankakee does not know how many counties we have in Illinois
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 1:35 pm:
== I was on a train when they STOPPED IT because some dufus saw a gun under a guys jacket and called 911==
I might question the stopping of the train, but I don’t think the guy was a dufus for reporting somebody with a gun. I would have done the same thing.
- dupage dan - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 1:41 pm:
Perception is everything. That’s why candidates don’t like to telegraph who they really are, or what things they wish to accomplish if elected other than general feel good - “I am dedicated to helping babies” kinda stuff.
Brady just ain’t like that. Last go around there were some things said and done that Brady just couldn’t get past. That and a lackluster campaign going to the finish line really hurt him. This time, it looks completely different….
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 1:45 pm:
“I will not sponsor a bill to kill puppies and kittens after winning the primary this time. I will instead focus my energies on a sense of the legislature resolution that Pope Benedict should be re-installed as Pontiff.”
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 2:07 pm:
Why did Brady say that? It’s not going to happen. It won’t gain him more votes from single-issue gun voters, and it will definitely hurt him in an area he needs to do much better.
- steve schnorf - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 2:32 pm:
Skeeter, I don’t remember the last time a candidate won the “moderate” label by favoring right-to-work laws. Remind me, if you would.
- Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 2:33 pm:
==Except, if thieves knew people carried guns there just might be less theft on mass transit.==
Except thieves are often willing to play the probability and go ahead with crime anyway.
==If Chicago police won’t do what’s necessary to get a grip on their gang problem, people will do what is necessary to protect themselves.==
The idea that street gangs is only a police problem is also nonsense.
==I’m sure Brady will remind everyone about how Pat Quinn raised the state income tax 67%==
Sure and Pat Quinn ran on increasing taxes in 2010, so running on an actual tax increase is not undoable.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 2:37 pm:
Joe Bidenopolous:
“People who advocate for CC on public trans are people who never take the train in rush hour.”
Can you make a bigger assumption that you are unable to prove? I advocate CCW and take the rush hour blue line to and from work every day.
It’s much less about defending yourself ON THE CTA and much more about being able to get around the city while keeping your weapon on you. I can’t unholster, unload, and encase my firearm at every bus stop and train platform without being in violation of the law. Allowing me to CCW on the CTA lets me get from point A to point B and enable me to defend myself in both locations.
Try to understand this guys, it’s not about shooting on the bus, it’s about transportation for people who don’t own/use cars.
- Skeeter - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 2:42 pm:
Schnorf,
That may be true, but compared to Brady and what Dillard has become? Rauner is a crazed left winger compared to those two.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 8, 13 @ 4:26 pm:
at what time did the people of cook county appoint the chicago tribune as their spokesman.
it’s like saying that garry mccarthy speaks for all cops when he talks about his position on gun control. they are both false assumptions.
times they are a changing if you doubt it just look at the backlog of foid applications in cook county and in illinois as a whole.
with the economy sinking even lower as the holiday season approaches i expect we are about to see an explosion in crime and violence in the downtown chicago business district.
combine that with the fact that cpd commandors, the top cop and the caps propaganda that is attempted to be sold to the residence of the city such as the 19th police district that surrounds wrigley field i think we can expect to see an every man for themselves vigil anti attitude because let’s face it. rahm and garry are either unwilling or unable to address the crime and violence issues. all we get are excuses and deflection of blame.
maybe i’m wrong.. hope so..but i think not
- Oak Tree - Wednesday, Oct 9, 13 @ 8:09 am:
The Illinois economy and the lack of jobs will trump any other topic. Bill Brady knows that as do the other gubernatorial candidates. Three counties carried Quinn the last time–Cook, Alexander, and St. Clair. Only 42% of the Illinois registered voters bothered to cast a vote back then for Brady or Quinn. Apathy ruled on Election Day as usual. This election the financial implications of Quinn’s governance (or lack there of) are far more striking to the average Illinois voter. That isn’t going to help Pat Quinn’s cause. Brady will never carry Cook County. That is a given so he should not pour his scarce resources into attaining the unattainable. He needs to prioritize on the collar counties and get those voters to turn out on Election Day.This strategy will easily give him the miniscule number of votes that he previously lost by at the last election. Concentrate on the heavily-populated collar counties like Will County “this time” and Brady will re-write history and he will carry the state. GOP money will flow to him after he shows that he was the last man standing after the GOP primary.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 9, 13 @ 8:37 am:
–Three counties carried Quinn the last time–Cook, Alexander, and St. Clair.–
The county argument is fascinating. Never has so much significance been attached to something so meaningless.
But if counties are your thing, the link below is informative. Scroll over individual counties for percentages last time time out and click for vote totals.
Guess which county provides the most GOP votes, by far? Winners like JBT, Kirk, Rutherford, Thompson, Edgar, etc. know the answer. Losers do not.
A GOP candidate doesn’t have to “carry” Cook to win, but it would be wise not to treat its citizens like some monolithic alien force.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=17&year=2010&f=0&off=5
- walkinfool - Wednesday, Oct 9, 13 @ 8:57 am:
Brady can win the collar counties, and the suburban towns in Cook. It’s a long shot, but one to to take.
Rauner would do much better in the burbs, but can he get anything downstate? That’s the question for him.
Dillard’s the most qualified, but appears to have lost his way with image and messaging, so far.
Rutherford could beat PQ in the general with wider appeal across various lines, but where is he now?