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Question of the day

Friday, Feb 21, 2014

* We do this occasionally, and I think now would be a good time to try it again. Who will win the 2014 Republican gubernatorial primary race? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


customer survey

- Posted by Rich Miller        


113 Comments
  1. - BDuty6 - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 1:59 pm:

    I voted Rauner. His momentum is too strong. The unions are playing a long game, beating him up for the general. Dillard has too deep a hole to climb out of. Rutherford is toast. Brady doesn’t even have the luxury of an IEA like Dillard does to help him out.
    Rauner is the guy.


  2. - PRISONER OF COOK - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    Its over; GOP voters are tired of the other three.


  3. - Gathersno - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    Money


  4. - In the Middle - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:01 pm:

    Rauner.

    Dillard and Brady are going to split the vote, but unlike last time, neither are going to win.


  5. - Reformed Public Servant - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:04 pm:

    Dillard. The recent anti-Rauner ads are peeling away the veneer that his ad bought. Thses are also a preview of the beating that Quinn will give him if Rauner wins.
    Only Dillard can beat Quinn, as the IEA endorsement shows.


  6. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:05 pm:

    Hopefully after the results of this poll Rutherford will drop out of the race. There is always 2016 and 2018. Don’t be short sighted, look long term


  7. - MrGrassroots - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:06 pm:

    The early tally is interesting that some think Dillard has a chance. if this Rauner barrage keeps up, that margin could narrow. Rauner is definitely been softened up for the general election and can’t win it. Dillard can and will win the general if he’s in it. I’m a partisan Democrat and I like Quinn and will vote for him, but give Dillard time and he will win this state over. Rauner: “Dead political meat.” Go Rauner, I say, speaking as a staunch Democrat.


  8. - 47th Ward - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:06 pm:

    C. Montgomery Rauner will win. The Illinois GOP is about to nominate a Democratic voting, insider’s insider, captain of the establishment, hypocritical cynic simply because he’s got all the money and all of the rich people’s support. GOP voters like voting for inevitable candidates and Rauner is nothing if not inevitable.

    Kirk Dillard is losing because he didn’t learn any lessons from his loss four years ago. Not one.

    Bill Brady can only stop another non-Rauner candidate from winning.

    Rutherford self-destructed in such a spectacular way it makes me wonder if, subconsciously, he wanted to lose.


  9. - been there - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    right. money.


  10. - Roadiepig - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    Rauner. Money and lack of money tops all this time (if not most every time). Helps to have damaged/ weak opponents to start with, and the editorial boards at major (or once major) newspapers as your cheerleaders too


  11. - Samurai - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:09 pm:

    Dillard. Cautiously optimistic that the third party ad campaigns will educate the voters and expose the myth of Baron Carhartt. Have always believed that Dillard also has the best chance in November.


  12. - Roadiepig - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:09 pm:

    And Rich- you forgot to include a choice for Oswego Willy


  13. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    Rauner.

    He has all the money. Not just his money, but virtually all the available GOP money and then some.

    You have to have significant money to run a serious, credible statewide campaign in Illinois that will get your message out. Only one guy does.


  14. - OneMan - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    Rauner, too much cash money….


  15. - Blue Dog - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:10 pm:

    Rauner- he’s bought the nomination. No one else has the cash to compete unfortunately.

    Side note- this will be the 1st GOP primary I’ve voted in & the idea of Rauner as a nominee or as Governor absolutely terrifies me. Definitely not a good way to grow the party.


  16. - Sunshine - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    Rauner. He has the cash, a pretty solid plan with room, and money, to counter quickly, and a great distraction in Rutherford.


  17. - Snucka - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    Rauner. The others are barely relevant.

    ==- Reformed Public Servant - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:04 pm:
    Only Dillard can beat Quinn, as the IEA endorsement shows.=
    The IEA couldn’t even swing a Democratic primary in 2010, when they backed Hynes.


  18. - John A Logan - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    The O’Jay’s did a tune about it, sweet baseline at the start. That’s why Rauner wins.


  19. - Westward - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:14 pm:

    BR. He’s the man with the plan and he’s gonna shake up springfield. Hahaha. Seriously, I did vote BR. He did what the other 3 couldn’t or wouldn’t do: get his name and message out to voters. I think the other 3 didn’t take BR’s candidacy seriously. Epic fail. And that, to me, is testament to how they view politics. They believed voters, “their GOP base,” would simply discard this rich guy who wants to “buy the election.” In my mind, because of this, they are the ones out of touch with the issues.


  20. - a drop in - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:16 pm:

    Picked Rauner. Too far ahead. I think the primary % will be about the same as your poll. And the total number of primary votes will only be a few higher (/snark).


  21. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:16 pm:

    I voted Rauner. He has money to burn and has pretty much already put the other three away. Time is running out.

    When I saw the Tribune poll the other day, showing that conservatives strongly outnumber moderates in the GOP, that’s another thing that plays well for Rauner. The other guys don’t despise unions. Rauner does, or at least does in his quest to become governor. That plays well to conservative anger.


  22. - Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:16 pm:

    Rauner, done and done. No cash and no path for the others.


  23. - West Sider - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    Cash for Clunkers.


  24. - VanillaMan - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    The Illinois GOP has been weakened for so long and out of power for so long, it has become a shell that can be easily purchased by anyone interested in buying it.

    This has been developing for a long time. It is now all about money and who can buy a nomination. Oberweis and Rauner bought the nominations this election cycle.

    This actually happens all the time. As a party continues losing, its nomination falls in value. Back in 2002, we saw the Democrats letting Dick Mell buy the nomination for his useless son-in-law who tired of his job in DC. After losing the General repeatedly for over twenty years, the Democratic nomination was available to a bum like Blagojevich and an old has-been gad-fly like Pat Quinn.

    What we are seeing this election cycle demonstrates that it is now the GOP who has a nomination ripe for buying - and it is Rauner who will get it.

    When we look at all the millionaires and billionaires playing politics in both parties, we usually don’t see someone who can actually navigate through all the political hurdles that Rauner has so far.

    If Rauner gets elected, the win will raise the value of a GOP nomination again, probably taking it out of reach of those rich political players interested in simply buying it.

    Another problem is the lack of major political players in the GOP. Kirk is out of commission. Topinka had already failed in 2006. The GOP doesn’t have many statewide players and their bench is too shallow or empty to challenge a rich political buyer.

    So, I think this election cycle for the GOP is where it has sunk so low Rauner has snagged it.

    And Oberweis too, btw - but the GOP Senate nomination against Durbin has been rather worthless for a whole lot longer.


  25. - FRT68 - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:19 pm:

    Dillard. He’s been vetted, whereas recent scrutiny about Rauner will scare primary voters about “unknown unknowns” that they fear will derail Rauner in an otherwise winnable race against Quinn.


  26. - Carl Nyberg - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:19 pm:

    Rauner has a prohibitive advantage b/c of money and failure of Dillard and Brady to catch on.

    Rutherford has a prohibitive disadvantage b/c, well, stuff.

    I can see Brady having a slim shot if the base of GOP rallies around him. But if it hasn’t started to materialize yet, I doubt it’s going to happen.


  27. - Bluefish - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:20 pm:

    Rauner. GOP voters won’t realize what a bad bill of goods they are getting with him until it’s too late.


  28. - Norseman - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    Roadiepig, we’re taking the stealth Willy for Governor write-in campaign straight to the general. Quinn and hopefully someone other than Rauner won’t know what hit them after Election Day.


  29. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    VanillaMan, I think that was your best non-song, non-funny post ever here. Thanks. Great insight.


  30. - SonofSuperAbe2014 - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    Rauner will get the mandate that Rutherford craves.


  31. - OneMan - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:22 pm:

    Dillard. He’s been vetted, whereas recent scrutiny about Rauner will scare primary voters about “unknown unknowns” that they fear will derail Rauner in an otherwise winnable race against Quinn.

    Yeah because a good 1 to 2% of primary voters in each party think that tactically….


  32. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:23 pm:

    Rauner.

    Third party ads needed to start the first week of January, not February, for one of the other three to have a shot.


  33. - Downstate - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    Rich,
    Don’t you have a mechanism for preventing people from voting more than once? It’s looks like Rutherford has been able to vote six times already.


  34. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    My vote is Rauner.

    I defer my “comment” to - VanillaMan -.

    Even this is too wordy.

    Exceptional - VanillaMan -, well said.


  35. - paul1349 - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:27 pm:

    rauner; he will buy the primary and lose the general


  36. - Marty - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:27 pm:

    Dillard, IF he gets the public employees/retirees and their families, whether union and non-union, to the polls. I think a great many of them will be voting their pensions.


  37. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:28 pm:

    - Norseman -,

    Thanks for helping those understand, and no snark here… on the “other” advice today too.


  38. - dupage dan - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:29 pm:

    I wanted to choose Jesse “THE BODY” Ventura but had to choose his alias, instead.

    What VM said. Could not say it better.


  39. - FRT68 - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:29 pm:

    Dillard. Rauner killed granny.


  40. - HoosierDaddy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    Rauner. Too big of a lead and too much money too late in the game. As Edwin Edwards put it, “the only thing that could stop him from being governor is being caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.”


  41. - Mason born - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    Unfortunately this is kind of like a cubs game in the end the season ends the same way.

    Rauner.


  42. - southwest - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    All of my republican friends are supporting Brady and Truax. Sadly, I only have two republican friends.


  43. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    VanillaMan:

    Give Rauner credit. He benched Schock, and this campaign has been anything but cheap for him so far. He has dropped some serious bank by my accounting.

    I think this has less to do with a decline in the price for the GOP brand than:

    1) The obliteration of the GOP grassroots organization;
    2) The virtual evaporation of the grassroots right (all of those pro-life endorsements were adding up to 9% for Dillard at last count)
    3) The revolt by GOP money men against the professional politicians.

    For a parallel, imagine the president of the Illinois AFLCIO announcing statewide run as a Democrat.


  44. - Sir Reel - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    Rauner

    He’s leading now. The other 3 kinda neutralize each other.


  45. - Lunchbox - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    I voted Rauner. Unless there’s a major scandal on his part over the next fewer than four weeks, he could easily pass the 50% barrier. It’s hard to believe a first time candidate could beat out established veterans, but it really speaks to the power of money in politics. His well-made ads have been running since the Fall and only recently have they been countered.


  46. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    - VanillaMan -’s comment completely explains why I am so against Bruce Rauner, and will continue to be striving for the others to try to pull out a victory, as I have been trying for, for months.


  47. - Robert the Bruce - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    Rauner. He has the money, and he has used it well.

    If the senior abuse becomes a bigger story, then potentially Brady could sneak in as victory (maybe 25:1 longshot?) as the default safe choice for conservatives.


  48. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:46 pm:

    –Unfortunately this is kind of like a cubs game in the end the season ends the same way.–

    Mason, any metaphor would have sufficed.

    You Cards fan never miss an opportunity to stick it to us, do you, lol.


  49. - RNUG - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    He’s not going to be getting my vote, but Rauner’s going to win it.


  50. - Courser - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:51 pm:

    He’s going to win for the same reason that most politicians win…unrestrained spending and unlimited funds. We always get the best politicians that money can buy.


  51. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    “If Rauner gets elected, the win will raise the value of a GOP nomination again, probably taking it out of reach of those rich political players interested in simply buying it.”

    If Rauner wins, won’t the nomination and the party tilt more toward only those who could buy them?


  52. - Just a Citizen - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    Follow the money: Rauner


  53. - Courser - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:54 pm:

    Edit…by “he” I meant Rauner. Like many Democrats, I will be going to the primary polls to pull a Republican ballot for Dillard.


  54. - He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 2:57 pm:

    I chose Rauner, primarily because he is buying the election. I will not vote for him, he is going to find out (if he beats Quinn) You CANNOT run government like a business. I also want to know why someone who makes 52 million per year would like to take a job for the money he makes in 1 day of work. Don’t say power because 52 mil makes you a pretty powerful guy already.


  55. - Mason born - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:00 pm:

    Word

    Come on i didn’t mean it that harsh. By now Cubs fans should have some very thick skin. Besides the best games i remember as a kid were the battles for the basement when STL and Cubs were trying not to be the very bottom. Rivalry made it so fun.

    Besides it really does work. No matter who you wanted to win the nomination at this point the best they can do is a good game while the cash cow juggernaut continues and the season goes down the drain.


  56. - Finally Out (formerly Ready to Get Out) - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:01 pm:

    No doubt: $$$$$


  57. - FRT68 - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:02 pm:

    OneMan . . . You underestimate primary voters’ ability to vote with an eye to the general. Political newbies with tons of money rarely win general elections. Just look at Linda McMahon in Connecticut (her of WWE fame!). Spent tens of millions of her own money in two U.S. Senate races and got obliterated in each.


  58. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    The winner of the Republican primary is the fellow who purchases all of Rauner’s television and radio ad time. His commissions have to be enormous.


  59. - PoolGuy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:08 pm:

    Rauner. not only is he buying all the ads, leading in the polls (as well as this one) and effectively buying the nomination, he and his billionaire buddies have leased the IL GOP like you would a new car.


  60. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:08 pm:

    –3) The revolt by GOP money men against the professional politicians.–

    Boy, did they ever. That’s been the big story to me so far.

    Although I’d argue Rauner is a professional political animal, just usually on the other side of the equation.

    To combine your and VMan’s thoughts, I think the money boys got tired of their sad ROI. Let’s just invest in one of our own, one who will put some skin in the game, and go with that.

    The results have been spectacular. The smartest thing Rauner ever did was breaking the contribution limits early.

    The money keeps rolling in: Gold Coast, North Shore, New York, Florida, Cali, Arizona — it’s jaw-dropping. Check out his D-2s. He makes the Blago money machine look the Little Sisters of the Poor.

    Rauner raises more money — not his own money, but from others — on a real good day, than the Other 3 do in a month.

    The Other 3 thought they were players. They didn’t get the memo.

    If Quinn thinks the Rauner fundraising network will slow down after the primary, he needs to disabuse himself of that notion. They’ll crank it up more, and they won’t stop until November.


  61. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:09 pm:

    - LincolnLounger -,

    To play off of what George Bailey said to his Dad about chasing his 1st million…

    I would take half of what the media buyer has made already in Cash…


  62. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:11 pm:

    - wordslinger -,

    The “money people” cut out the political middlemen and are going to have “one of their own” as the “made” guy…


  63. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:12 pm:

    Rauner. Money talks. Might not win a two-man race, but this is a four-man or at least a three-man race depending on if Rutherford stays in. Divide and conquer.


  64. - Mcleaniac - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    I voted for Rauner, self made man- not a professional politician -cannot be bought - owes no one in Springfield a thing. About time a man like Rauner came on the scene,


  65. - MadManMad - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:22 pm:

    Rauner has the money and the name recognition right now. Unless there are some other candidates that drop out he’ll have the majority.

    This would be good for the Repubs in the long run. He has the ability to move to the center during the general and take some moderate votes from Quinn.


  66. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    “I voted for Rauner, complete insider, donates tens of thousands of dollars to professional politicians - cannot find a deal that can’t be bought - owes everyone in Springfield for his pension money profits, and a thank you to the Unions he bashes. Another “inside” man like Rauner on the scene,”

    Better.


  67. - Darienite - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:24 pm:

    Rauner will defeat Dillard by a 12% difference; Brady a close third; Rutherford single digits.


  68. - One ofthe 35 - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:24 pm:

    The GOP and Illinois would be much better off with Dillard than with Rauner, but its all about the money.


  69. - VanillaMan - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:26 pm:

    There was a huge loss for Illinois when Rod Blagojevich won in 2002. Then we kept on losing because we didn’t keep up with our other interstate competition throughout the decade. For those who have been arguing with me about these comments and similar ones over the past several years, I was enjoined in agreement by the former Obama Chief of Staff - now Chicago Mayor - who also called the past decade, a “lost decade”.

    The last thing we needed was an incompetent governor. Worse, we got an incompetent, do-nothing, felon who focused on a White House run and had no interest in being a governor. Blagojevich expected to use his anti-tax Midwestern base to become a national player in 2004 or 2008, but the reality of his tax-suicide plan began unraveling when John Kerry ignored tapping Blagojevich for the 2004 Veep slot, which would have allowed Blagojevich to escape the tomb he through Illinois into in order to become an attractive national candidate.

    Instead of growing with the rest of the country during the 2000s, Illinois failed to find any leadership interested in addressing the challenges the State faced, and didn’t benefit from the economic growth. So when the boom ended in 2008, we had no buffer of growth to help.

    The GOP leadership was tapped out by this time. George Ryan was actually the last of the GOP regime established during the 1970s and an old man governor. The GOP didn’t build a bench of statewide leaders, so when Ryan’s administration collapsed under scandal, there was no other GOP leader able to escape the scandal or recognized as the next-in-line. The GOP has suffered since.

    So, at a time when Illinois needed an excellent Democratic governor demonstrating a new vitality from Chicago to step into the political vacuum the GOP created with Ryan, we got Rod Blagojevich. Worse, instead of getting Illinois a second chance, the Democrats gave Blagojevich a second chance in 2006 knowing full well that their governor was an abject failure, creep and thief. It is as though they had lost elections for governor for so long, they didn’t care who they nominated and elected, just because he was able to win after decades of losses.

    So let Rauner buy the GOP nomination. The State simply can’t get worse than what we have seen since 1998. I believe that the State Assembly will handle any kooky idea the Billionaire tries to shove through Springfield and I believe Madigan and reality will take him down.

    If Rauner wins, it could mean a beginning of a bipartisan Illinois open to ideas from both political parties at a time when no one, north or south of I-80, knows what to do.

    Additionally, it could mean an increase in the value of a gubernatorial nomination attracting talent currently avoiding the Top Spot in Springfield.

    I’m not voting for Rauner or for Quinn, but I will not vote for Quinn in the General.


  70. - Chavez-respecting Obamist - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:34 pm:

    It’s Rauner for all the reasons Vanilla Man cited.

    And I think a Very Warm Place just froze over. I just heard Oberweis say he’s in favor of parts of the Dream Act.


  71. - VanillaMan - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:36 pm:

    I’m also wondering if Rauner is interested in only using the governorship to move into the national stage.


  72. - Anonymous in Aurora - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:36 pm:

    Billionaire Bruce. Because money.


  73. - East Central Illinois - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:38 pm:

    I think Rauner will win because of the cash. At the voting booth, though, I am voting for Dillard.


  74. - ZC - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    At the national level, the rule of thumb though is as a party loses multiple times, they moderate the message, their top candidates moving somewhat more “center” (though that’s a murky term). Say what you will about Blago, in campaigning terms he also found the sweet spot statewide between Dawn Netsch on the one hand and Glenn Poshard on the other.

    I think the trend will continue in 2014; Rauner looks to run with a more socially liberal image than Brady did. But what’s interesting and a bit atypical is that Rauner might run as much or even more economically conservative. That’s why I’m really curious what his rhetoric on unions will be once (I predict too) he wins this thing and his target electorate shifts.


  75. - Smoggie - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:42 pm:

    Rauner.

    All four candidate are deeply flawed, but only he has the money to overcome it.


  76. - Roadiepig - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    VanillaMan - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:26 pm:

    Very nice summary of the past decade+ of what went wrong, governor-wise, here in Illinois. Thanks for sharing.


  77. - Peter B - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    I voted Dillard just because all the Rauner commercials are annoying and I don’t like his voice.


  78. - Walker - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:45 pm:

    VMan: every comment a gem.

    Even those who tried to differ with yours, only made them stronger.

    I also wonder if this is just one step to the national stage, in Bruce’s mind. It explains some of his fundraising alliances from out-of-state.


  79. - SAP - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:49 pm:

    Bruce. He hovered up all the cash but he has also run the best campaign, which a lot of people have underestimated. He will be anything but a pushover in the general.


  80. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:52 pm:

    Some days, I think this primary nomination is like four bald men fighting over a comb.

    Rauner can buy a lovely toupee, but wait and see what happens in November Yes, he may spend $100 million, but I really don’t believe it will work. In fact, I fear he and Oberweis may drag everybody down with them.


  81. - The Butcher - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:52 pm:

    Rauner. You are stupid if you didn’t pick Rauner. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


  82. - Tough Guy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:54 pm:

    Rauner will win as he has the money and has out hustled the competition. I thought there was no way I would vote for Quinn in the general but I have totally rethought my position now.


  83. - LincolnLounger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:54 pm:

    @Oswego Willy,3:23 pm:

    “I voted for Rauner, complete insider, donates tens of thousands of dollars to professional politicians - cannot find a deal that can’t be bought - owes everyone in Springfield for his pension money profits, and a thank you to the Unions he bashes. Another “inside” man like Rauner on the scene,”

    Brilliant.

    @Darienite, 3:24 pm:

    Rauner will defeat Dillard by a 12% difference; Brady a close third; Rutherford single digits

    Sadly, I think you are exactly correct.


  84. - Chad - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:55 pm:

    Rauner. Rutherford had some chances of threading the needle at an earlier stage, but the recent developments now prevent that. Rauner is the first self funder to come along who paid attention to the talent he hired. Presumably he will continue his adventageous advertising differential and avoidance of earned media risk. That can very well carry him through the general. Good personnel, cash, and very few mid-steps have served him well.


  85. - Robo - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 3:57 pm:

    Rauner because of $, his ability to dry up everybody else’s $ and, just as important, sticking to his message.


  86. - A modest proposal - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:02 pm:

    Vanilla

    At this point the GOP bench isn’t that good, but it is growing. Roskam, Schock, and Kinzinger are all capable of bringing the GOP into the 21st century.


  87. - For Whatever It's Worth - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:04 pm:

    It’s already bought and paid for.


  88. - Peoria guy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    Rauner wins big unless some scandal erupts in his campaign. Too much money and momentum and nobody strong enough to run him down.


  89. - overcooked - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:07 pm:

    I voted Dillard, but my heart isn’t in it. I see Rauner signs popping up on lawns in my neighborhood in places that tells me this fight is over. A brutally efficient campaign.


  90. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:10 pm:

    It`s the golden rule,the one with the most gold rules.


  91. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:13 pm:

    VMan, Walker, certainly the “immoral” public employee union message has attracted a lot of attention and money, nationally.

    I think most statewide politicians, in every state, envision themselves at some point as a future president. Blago did. Another guy from around here, who I can’t recall, did, too.

    If Rauner can sell the “immoral” public employees unions/kill the pensions message in Illinois, and win the governorship, believe me, he’ll get a hard look nationally from the folks who are already giving him money.

    They’re searching far-and-wide for someone to kill the unions and the pensions. If it can be done, here, he goes tot he top of the heap.


  92. - mokenavince - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:14 pm:

    Rauner vs Moe,Curly and Larry. No contest
    the field is just trying to hand the election to Quinn. The adds they run are nasty and low.

    Dillard’s plan is to run to the right of Atilla
    the Hun. Brady’s old news, Rutherford has no clue

    Rauner should lap the field.


  93. - Walter Mitty - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:15 pm:

    Rauner…. Because he wants it more than any of the rest….work ethic, discipline, and determination . Can make you rich. But also can be attributes that allow you to wipe the floor with the other “3″……


  94. - MrJM - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:15 pm:

    Faced with four ugly suitors, the Republican party will marry the rich one and hope they can learn to love him.

    This despite the fact that the Baron has already said that if he’s elected he will flog anyone, regardless of party, who doesn’t follow his commands.

    – MrJM


  95. - Wensicia - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:15 pm:

    Follow the money, and the fact the other three haven’t enough to mount a strong campaign against him. Rauner, but he shouldn’t think the general will be as easy by just buying out all the ad space.


  96. - Jerry Hubbard - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:23 pm:

    Bruce Rauner. He’s the only one that has run a consistent campaign. Tells people why they should vote FOR him. Rapid Response to opposition advertising. The only thing I’ve heard from Dillard was a robocall…that only ripped on Rauner, and gave no reason why I should vote for Dillard.


  97. - Because I said so..... - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:26 pm:

    I wish I had the guts to pull a republican ballot to vote against Rauner.


  98. - Federalist - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:28 pm:

    Rauner should win the primary. Lots of money and the others will split votes among themselves.

    Loses handily to Quinn.


  99. - Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:29 pm:

    BR-ugh! He’s bought the Election, as many predicted, as well as misled People away from his errant flip-flopping (minimum wage), unethical (can anyone say Friend/Jailbird Felon Stu Levine?) (e.g. Arne Duncan clouting), and egregiously irresponsible business practices, which MAY have (we’ll let the Highest Courts determine it ultimately) even led to innocent elderly, sick people being abused, neglected, and DYing! The whole thing makes me sick–i.e. the prediction. But we’ll see how he fares in November, and I expect in the end–as the TRUTH about the REAL BR is brought out via MILlions soon to be spent against HIM now for a change–not very well…!


  100. - PoolGuy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:31 pm:

    if Bruce has already raised $10-12 million since last year, and raises another $25-30 million for the General, who knows what can happen.


  101. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    (Tips cap to - LincolnLounger -)


  102. - Filmmaker Professor - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:38 pm:

    Dillard still has a long-shot chance, but his toast is currently burning.


  103. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:39 pm:

    –This despite the fact that the Baron has already said that if he’s elected he will flog anyone, regardless of party, who doesn’t follow his commands–

    Once he gets the nomination, you’ll hear the harsh screech of tires as he turns hard to the left.

    Ladies of the Suburbs, please pay attention:

    That whole referendum thing on gay marriage? I misspoke. I’m sorry. Me so happy for everybody.

    Abortion? Planned Parenthood? I was never very good at anatomy, even down on the farm. But I’m with you, ladies, depending on where I happen to be with you.

    Teachers? I love teachers. Except those in Chicago. You know the ones I’m talking about….

    The dude has been planning this for years. He’s got money, and he’s got game.

    Once he gets the nomination, where’s the hardcore GOP in the primary, going to go? Quinn?


  104. - In the Middle - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:40 pm:

    I just want to hear from the 34 votes for Rutherford. How do you figure a path to victory?


  105. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:44 pm:

    - wordslinger -,

    Keep in mind, Rauner will be saddled with Oberweis for a little bit, so separation from the Slytherin will be first on the agenda, then the left-turning (think NASCAR) begins once complete separation is achieved.

    Rauner’s biggest fear? Oberweis controlling the “Party Narrative” against soccer moms, pro-choice, moderates.


  106. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:45 pm:

    “I’m also wondering if Rauner is interested in only using the governorship to move into the national stage.”

    Do Republicans need a billionaire politician who attacks the minimum wage and unions and wants to cut benefits to the poor? It seems that this is exactly what they don’t need. Demographic changes are coming, as is 2016. I say Republicans should do well in 2014, but in 2016, during a presidential election, it could very well be a different story.


  107. - Walter Mitty - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:50 pm:

    GOM…. Yes, please. Many 30-40 somethings can identify with Rauners fiscal conservative views. And that he doesn’t want in people’s bedroom. It resonates.


  108. - Cook County Commoner - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:51 pm:

    I voted Rauner for two reasons. First, he has the money to beat his opponents into the ground. Second, he has Einstein’s theory of insanity on his side. Many folks will look at the remaining field as establishment Springfield that had a hand in bringing Illinois to its current state. Inanity would be voting for one of these politicians and thinking anything would change.


  109. - Mr. Big Trouble - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 4:57 pm:

    Billinoaires rule; all others drool.

    Plus many folks are willing to take a chance on a new face, even a face that may have some blemishes.


  110. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 5:00 pm:

    –Rauner is the first self funder to come along who paid attention to the talent he hired.–

    He’s not a self-funder. Get that through your head.

    He has more money than Blair Hull or Jack Ryan combined, but he also has the best individual fundraising network the state has ever seen.

    The PACS haven’t chimed in. The sneaky money has done some stuff, but not in a big way — but they will.

    Once he wins the primary, the fundraising will explode.


  111. - Chad - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 5:08 pm:

    WS: I use the term to describe the many wealthy folks who have spent much on talent, but who insisted on running their own campaigns. He’s a self funder in legal and practical terms, but I certainly recognize he has attracted “Matching ” funding. This is still a man who is paying a huge portion of the freight.


  112. - G'Kar - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 5:08 pm:

    I voted Rauner for many of the reasons other said. As a former DR supporter, I will probably vote for Dillard and hope for a miracle. I don’t particularly like Dillard, either.


  113. - Downstater - Friday, Feb 21, 14 @ 5:10 pm:

    Rauner, unless Rutherford drops out in the next week to 10 days, and then Dillard has a chance.
    Rauner will turn a little left just to placate those suburban women and bingo come Nov., Hello Governor elect Rauner.


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