You have 4 candidates, one mega-millionaire, 2 state senators, a “Statewide” in the middle of a scandal, Dem leaning groups, and 1%ers funding at least someone…
Not surprised in the least at the “undecideds”, and further, not one of the 4 has made the “Closing Argument” pitch to secure support OR started actual honest harvesting of “Pluses” already in the bank.
“Undecideds” - not surprised at all given all these dynamics.
Let’s just all make sure we take all of 2014 in. It is going to be one heck of a ride no matter what side you are on.
I feel like Flounder with the prospects of 2014 being the wildest we may ever see in Illinois politics.
There is no way the Republican Party is able to unite around Rauner after the Primary. I can’t see Dillard, Rutherford, or Brady endorsing him. Rauner has scorched the GOP in Illinois, these union ads are a good investment. I’m still a little worried that 13 days isn’t enough time to build a strong negative perception.
Whether Rauner wins or not, the unions probably figure they might as well get started on defining him. If he gets knocked off, great for them, if not, the ads have been run the same.
- Johnny Q. Suburban - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:53 pm:
If WAA’s latest is to be believed, I would not be at all surprised Rauner didn’t hit 50%. He’s at 40% with 26% undecided? Fifty is certainly on the table. Even if Shearer is able to make a massive buy, a good number of votes will already be cast by the time it could exert any influence on voters. Plus, this is really only a 4 person field in name only as, unfortunately, Treasurer Rutherford no longer has a legitimate chance to win and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which someone who hasn’t already made up their mind to vote for him, chooses to do so NOW after all that has happened.
For all the talk of union members who don’t ordinarily vote in GOP primaries voting this time, I just can’t see it happening in large enough numbers to significantly skew things. Not in this state where voters are, to borrow Nate Silver’s terminology, “inelastic.”
So, unfortunately, I believe Rauner has a decent chance at 50% in two weeks and that says a lot about the cynical attitude so prevalent amongst Illinois voters from both parties.
=Rauner has the guys who write the checks that get you on TV=
Exactly, Quinn and unions will be on TV. Rauner has gotten a free pass because his primary opponents have not been able to raise a dime by themselves.
Rauner will need these Republicans to come out and vote. This gubernatorial election will be very negative. Why would a Brady supporter want to wait in line on a cold day in November to vote for Rauner, a pro-life and pro-gay marriage GOP candidate.
Hopefully, these guys can create ads that move voters. Put a label/brand on the guy that would highlight his hypocrisy and how out of touch with the common man he really is. Show that he’s just another blowhard like Blago - I like the “Corrupter” but that’s just me.
==Why would a Brady supporter want to wait in line on a cold day in November to vote for Rauner, a pro-life and pro-gay marriage GOP candidate==
Because he thinks Pat Quinn is really great and loves the 67% tax increase, so he/she won’t vote! That makes a lot of sense. Rauner is your nominee, get over it. I had to get over the fact that I was stuck with Brady in 2010, and I don’t want my dog gassed either.
While I believe it, momentum against Rauner is at least holding, and we have yet to measure the impact of these last negative Ads in the 13 days left, and then the GOTV will be critical if that 50% number can be hit.
I doubt the 50%.
The impact of getting actual “Pluses” to get to 50% in a 4-way race with a lack of field operations…and this new barrage of negative Ads…
==with a lack of field operations…==
Mr. Willy, please admit that you have no idea what operations Rauner has or doesn’t have. You are just guessing from the sidelines, and employing wishful thinking to get past the reality that Rauner is going to win big.
==While I believe it, momentum against Rauner is at least holding==
In the last week Rauner’s lead went from 19 points to 25 points in this tracking poll. If that’s momentum “against” him then Quinn and unions are going to need to change their pants when Rauner gets a wind at his back
===Mr. Willy, please admit that you have no idea what operations Rauner has or doesn’t have. You are just guessing from the sidelines, and employing wishful thinking to get past the reality that Rauner is going to win big.===
Enlighten me. You have no idea what sideline I am on, or what I may see, hear, or understand.
In Kendall, I see nothing that points to field operations prepared for GOTV in 13 days.
Poll graphs are simple to read. If they don’t help your narrative, a good Raunerbot finds another way to spin reality.
- Johnny Q. Suburban - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:49 pm:
Good point about plusses, OW. I wonder if the Rauner campaign will in some way be hurt by, what appears to be, a not particularly close primary. A close race would have provided an opportunity to put together a field staff and GOTV crew that they would have been able to count on again in November.
- allknowingmasterofracoondom - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:49 pm:
If they are going to spend money against him now, they must think Dillard has a chance. Otherwise I think they would wait a bit before spending that kind of money (assuming the Republican PAC they are giving to will go dormant after the primary)
Rauner will win the primary not because he is a “winner”—but he’s not loser either. Brady, Dillard and Rutherford (due to his current situation) are either actual or perceived losers. Most people don’t want to associate with losers, so Rauner wins by default.
With any luck the union money will be exhausted for the general
- Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:03 pm:
=With any luck the union money will be exhausted for the general=
(On a smaller scale) That’s like saying Rauner’s exhausted all his personal wealth for the Primary
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:04 pm:
How is the lack of a GOP field operation any different from previous years?
Do not hold your breath. Nobody wants a billionaire Scott Walker in the President’s home state. At least, the potential downside is pretty awful.
It would be different if Rauner were more of a Bloombergian Republican. But he ain’t. He is venomous, and unfortunately he has the base so ginned up that it is going to be pretty tough to hang on to them through the General unless he keeps the venom flowing. He is pro choice, pro gay rights, Jewish kabillionaire…if he doesn’t keep talking like a crazy Tea Partier, he loses his connection to his base, because he certainly is not connected to them on values or common experience.
” ain’t. He is venomous, and unfortunately he has the base so ginned up that it is going to be pretty tough to hang on to them through the General unless he keeps the venom flowing. He is pro choice, pro gay rights, Jewish kabillionaire…”
Really? YDD, OW, Word et al = I have been reading the flotsum and jetsum yoy have been spewing for months now. You have collectively crossed the line of decency and become disgustingly offensive! Get used to the reality of Governor Rauner - you don’t have the influence to change it.
Methinks the unions have polls by live callers, not robo polls that voters hang up on, that show Rauner has dropped 11 points in two weeks and is under 30 percent. Time will tell.
If Rauner was on the verge of 50 percent, why would he be running negative ads on Brady and Dillard causing more hard feelings that will linger after the primary?
IF Rauner wins the primary, he will be wounded in a big blue state. First, he pissed off Schock and many of his supporters. Schock won the 2012 general election with 74 percent, so it is safe to say he has a broad base of support in his district in primaries and general elections. Then Rutherford publicly blamed Rauner for choreographing the roll out of the nasty Rutherford attacks. Like him or not, Rutherford has been all over this state for 20 years and remembers ordinary people’s names. His hard core base has dwindled but he will still get tens of thousands of votes in the primary. How much warmth will Rutherford supporters have for Rauner IF he wins the nomination?
Then there were the negative ads on Brady, Dillard and Rutherford calling them names. Now Rauner is airing specific ads against Brady and Dillard from the Rauner campaign itself. Then, many pro-life Republicans would rather skip the race for Governor than vote for a pro-abortion Republican. So that all adds up to a wounded nomination IF Rauner wins. There is also a noteworthy number of union members who do vote Republican in primaries and general elections. Many state workers in Sangamon County for example. Lots of trade union members all over the rest of the state. They are not going to vote for a candidate calling for right to work.
How better for the unions than to help Republicans hit Rauner hard, causing irreconcilable rifts with a good many Republicans AND start to define Rauner as the dishonest, corrupt fraud that he is?
It absolutely can work to defeat Rauner in the primary. Rauner has spent $14 million vs. almost nothing from the other candidates, and yet Rauner has at least 60 percent of Republicans NOT supporting him.
Notably, Rauner himself has helped solidify deep negative feelings about him by a good chunk of Republicans. Losing 20 percent of Republicans in the general election makes it rather difficult for a Republican to win in Illinois.
This effort is helping to make possible a Rauner defeat in the primary and at the same time damaging Rauner among the Republican/conservative base should he win the nomination. That’s why he keeps writing million dollar checks way above what he told donors last December that he would spend in the primary.
So add it up. IF Rauner was at a solid 40 percent and in good position to get another ten percent from the undecided column, why would he still be antagonizing supporters of the other Republican candidates AND still be regularly writing million dollar checks? If that 40 percent was solid in a three and a half candidate race now, he wouldn’t need a single undecided voter. So why is Rauner still being abrasive to his opponents at the risk of pissing some of their supporters in the general election? Because he and his top staff know this primary is not in the bag.
Interesting comments. You may be on to something, but we’ll see.
Everyone is forgetting that Rauner’s negatives have yet to soar especially if the “killer ad” arrives. If he drops 7-10 points before the election and Dillard gains half of those, with all else being equal, we have ourselves a ball game. The race would be 30 Rauner and 20 Dillard. Undecideds and crossovers could make up the difference. The undecides have seen so much of Rauner; I think it is unlikely that they go with him or they would have already done so.
Additionally, millions are about to hit Rauner in ways he hasn’t really been deeply and unequivocally hit yet. At the same time, pro-Dillard ads will give the voters what they have been missing…a choice.
To gage this race, we need a few things.
1) A poll of likely voters to see how a hypothetical nursing home scandal affects their voting selections.
2) A poll of likely voters seeing how many can name the candidates in the race for Governor particularly to see who is aware that Dillard is running. It seems his name id may be still be low.
3) A poll asking likely primary voters which candidate is associated with a nursing home scandal.
Here is my logic. All anyone in the race has really heard is pro-Rauner material. The past attack ads may add a little negative in the mix, but those were relatively small ad buys over an extended time period. Current polling reflects this. Likely primary voters know Rauner is running, they know he is for term limits but that is about all. They have yet to be presented with a choice. The unions must believe they can change the race with money and voters. The above scenario is exactly the logic behind it.
If the polling shows high Rauner name id, low Rauner negatives, little voter knowledge of nursing home scandals and medium size Dillard name id. This race will change rapidly. We all know Rauner is ahead. What we need to know is what electoral strategy could change it.
===Oswego Willy will work to defeat him in favor of the Democrat. Willy, stop the charade. We know who you really are.===
I will? I will not be party to “Bruce Rauner” running as he is, like I and many others faulted Democrats for aiding a 2nd Term Rod Blagojevich. If recognizing that both Rauners are not who they say they are is troublesome, look at yourself.
I dinged Dems for supporting Rod when he ran for re-election. They went against their better self. I can’t criticize those Drms and then turn around and be party to Bruce Rauner.
I will never vote for Quinn. My ballot may very well be blank fur Governor, but I will not be party to Bruce Rauner, bring a hypocrite of those I blamed for Rod and going against their better self.