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Question of the day

Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014

* Your final primary predictions?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


67 Comments
  1. - John A Logan - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Rauner by 4%. Rutherford to blame for Dillards loss by not dropping out. Quinn beats Hardiman 55 to 45. Signaling major problems for the Quinn campaign with his own base. In the 115th, Terri Bryant over Bob White, 60 to 40. Kilquist over Mayville 51 to 49. Rauner contributes 20 million to his campaign fund at 11:59 pm.


  2. - IbendahlLuvsJBT - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:49 am:

    Rauner 1. Illinois 0.


  3. - Coles County Anti-Liberal - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:51 am:

    Jeanne Ives wins and Oswego Willy throws a fit. Berrios-Guzzardi goes to a recount.
    Tom Cross wins 62-38 and plays miniature golf.


  4. - Wally - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    Dillard pulls the upset by 2%, DR gets around 6% and Brady 17-18%. A significant number of people who thought about voting for Rauner end up going a different direction and a lot of undecideds break for Dillard.


  5. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    All house incumbents win.


  6. - Snucka - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:53 am:

    Rauner 42, Dillard 35, Brady 15, Rutherford 8

    Quinn gets 75%


  7. - Langhorne - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:54 am:

    Rauner by 193 votes. Seriously, rauner by 7%.

    Quinn by 10% or less. Low turnout.

    To be for or against rauner is the only reason to show up. The antis are more passionate, but prob not enuf of them for dillard due to split vote. Thanks dan. Go away.


  8. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:54 am:

    Apathy 75%, voters 25%.


  9. - Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:54 am:

    Rauner wins despite a late Dillard surge, at a margin close enough that Brady and especially Rutherford get criticized for staying in.

    Quinn wins but not at the margin an incumbent should get against essentially a no-name opponent.

    Davis beats Harold handily. Cross wins. Oberweis almost blows it.


  10. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:55 am:

    1st district Cook County:

    Boykin 43
    Sercye 40
    Carothers 10
    Others 7


  11. - Hans Sanity - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:56 am:

    Please allow me to stray and predict a real horse race:

    Northfield, OH - Race 8 - $1 Exacta Box - Scootin Bay (4) & Catch That Angel (5)


  12. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:56 am:

    GOP Gov

    Rauner 47
    Dillard 37
    Brady 15
    Rutherford 1


  13. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:56 am:

    Just FYI, comments on this post will be stopped at 7 pm.


  14. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 11:59 am:

    Mitchell gets 60%


  15. - From the 'Dale to HP - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    Rauner: 38%, Dillard: 32%, Brady 20%, Rutherford: 9%.

    Rauner ‘only’ wins by 6 points, story turns to how this is a disappointment and he might not be all that strong of a candidate despite running a good campaign and having all the money.

    Quinn gets 65% and everyone freaks out, but really it’s because no one in Cook County voted/Dems pulling GOP ballots.

    Post primary: The 2014 general starts to feel a bit like the 2006 race… not sure why and maybe it’s only a passing feeling. This race could end up becoming more about angry voters, but my guess is voters will be indifferent/not to excited about either candidate ala ‘06. Gotta wonder if a third party candidate jumps in (frankly, this probably should have been Rauner’s move).


  16. - Frustrated Voter - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    Gov:
    Rauner: 45
    Dillard: 33
    Brady: 14
    Rutherford 8

    Treasurer:
    Grogan: 51
    Cross: 49

    Congress:
    Davis: 62
    Harold: 38


  17. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    If this is 2006, is there room for a Rich Whitey?

    Oh wait, Rauner is already running!


  18. - Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    Dillard wins by less than 1,000 votes. I have a feeling people changed their minds about Rauner the last two days.

    Rutherford gets less than 3% and starts campaigning for his 2018 gubernatorial campaign run tomorrow.


  19. - William j Kelly - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:05 pm:

    Nausea, indigestion, heartburn, diarrhea and upset stomach.


  20. - phocion - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:06 pm:

    Rauner +12
    Oberweis +15
    Quinn +40
    R. Davis +30
    Sandack +4
    Mitchell +10
    Guzzardi +2
    Breen +2


  21. - Dirty Red - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:07 pm:

    Pihos out.
    Sullivan in.
    Sandack in.
    Berrios in.

    Davis by 20%.

    Brady gets less than 15% with difference going to Rauner.


  22. - Cam Brady - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:13 pm:

    Whoever thinks that Dillard still has a chance must have had 5 or 6 small batch bourbons


  23. - NuttyGOP - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:13 pm:

    William Kelly jumps in to Lake Michigan in protest of Republicans, no in protest of Democrats, wait no in protest of Republicans… Yeah that’s it.


  24. - Eric Zorn - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:16 pm:

    Rauner 41%
    Dillard 29%
    Brady 23%
    Rutherford 7%

    Upset special: Truax


  25. - Wensicia - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:20 pm:

    BR — 38%
    KD — 33%
    BB — 22%
    DR — 6%

    Quinn — 70%


  26. - Northwest Dem - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:21 pm:

    Where are these 7 or 8 percent of Republicans voting for Rutherford? He’ll be lucky to crack 3. Is he first on the ballot or something?


  27. - Soccermom - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:25 pm:

    We were watching HGTV last night (yeah, we’re really wild and crazy) and saw a lot of Dillard ads.

    He’s going after the “List it” voters, I think.


  28. - TechGuy38 - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:26 pm:

    Gov:
    Rauner: 46
    Dillard: 29
    Brady: 17
    Rutherford 8

    Treasurer:
    Grogan: 61
    Cross: 39

    11th:
    Senger: 38
    Miller: 32
    Balkema: 23
    Bayne: 6
    Robbins: 1

    US Senate:
    Oberweis: 51
    Truax: 49


  29. - midwaygardens - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:26 pm:

    47th Ward, it’s more than apathy. Disgust. Each of the Republicans are ethically challenged from sexual harassment and the cover-up, to voting on legislation that helped his own business interest, to selling his principles for a union endorsement. And then there’s Rauner. Quinn never spoke out against Rod, well till the conviction.


  30. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:30 pm:

    Can’t see any reason to buck the polls in the big races.

    My upset special of the week is Kentucky over Wichita State in the second round of the Big Dance.

    Still, strange things can happen. Did you know there is not one mens college b-ball team from Illinois or Indiana in the tourney?

    No Illini, no DePaul, no Loyola, no Bradley, no Southern, no Indiana, no Purdue, no Butler, no Notre Dame….

    How weird is that?


  31. - Northern WIll - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:31 pm:

    Rauner by 5
    Cross by 8
    Truax by 2
    Davis by 30
    Senger by 2
    Sandack by 4
    Breen by 6


  32. - chad - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    1st district Cook County:

    Boykin 35
    Sercye 30
    Carothers 25
    Others 10


  33. - Wally - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    Interesting, many here predicting a comfortable Rauner win, but seems very few are actually voting for BR. And, many seem to hear stories of people voting against Rauner and turnout in Chicago light so far.


  34. - Midstate Indy - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:36 pm:

    Mitchell, Berrios, Andrade. On another note, regardless of individual races, IL Review continues to be smitten with headlining posts with Justin Bieber.


  35. - Louis G. Atsaves - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:37 pm:

    GOP Governor:

    Rauner 47%
    Dillard 35%
    Brady 14%
    Rutherford 4%

    US GOP SENATE

    Oberweis 55
    Truax 45

    IL GOP TREASURER

    Grogin 50.5%
    Cross 49.5%


  36. - SirLankselot - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:38 pm:

    Rutherford with the upset no one saw coming!

    In all seriousness, Rauner wins with Dillard in second within five points. Brady at 20 and Rutherford at 10.


  37. - IrishPirate - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Rauner by 10.

    Guzzardi by 4.

    Putin by 94.7.


  38. - Lunchbox - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:49 pm:

    My Pontiac (not really bold) predictions:

    GOP Gov
    Rauner 46%
    Dillard 31%
    Brady 17%
    Rutherford 6%

    GOP Senate
    Oberweis 69%
    Truax 31%

    GOP Treasurer
    Cross 56%
    Grogin 44%

    Upset special: Dan Brinkman in the four way GOP primary in the 45th House.


  39. - ronmexico - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Rauner 41%
    Dillard 32%
    Brady 21%
    Rutherford 6%

    Quinn 72%
    Hardiman 28%

    Mitchell 68%
    Travis 32%

    Berrios 53%
    Guzzardi 47%

    Sandack by 8%

    Davis over Harold 82% to 18%


  40. - Snucka - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:54 pm:

    What % would Tio need in order to mildly embarrass Quinn? Don’t think it will matter in eight months, just curious. I know Blago got about 71% in his 2006 primary.


  41. - Phineas J. Whoopee - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:55 pm:

    There is an obvious cross over vote happening and the totals will be nowhere near what has been polled. Whether that is enough for Dillard is the question. I can’t predict exact numbers without more information but suffice it to say, I think Dillard has a small shot.

    It will be interesting to see how the crossover affects Quinn’s totals as well.

    Both elections will be closer than predicted.


  42. - Lunchbox - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 12:56 pm:

    Forgot the Dem Gov race!

    Quinn 69%
    Hardiman 31%


  43. - N'ville - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:06 pm:

    Brady 33%
    Dillard 32%
    Rauner 31%
    Rutherford 4%

    Dillard demands a recount.

    Rauner pays off Oberweis to drop out, gets appointed to run against Durbin.

    Durbin freaks out about all that money being spent against him and drops out.

    Burris appointed to run against Rauner.

    Dillard beats Brady in the recount.

    Obama does a TV ad for Dillard in the general.

    Quinn beats Dillard with 100% of the vote with all precints reporting…just how he planned it all along…

    Senator Burris sworn in for the second time, and this time they actually give him an office in DC.


  44. - Frank - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:09 pm:

    Rauner wins with 39%.

    Sandack, Pihos lose. Sullivan wins.

    Mitchell, Andrade, Smith win. Berrios loses.


  45. - OneMan - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    GOP Governor:

    Rauner 47%
    Dillard 37%
    Brady 12%
    Rutherford 4%

    US GOP SENATE

    Oberweis 53
    Truax 47

    IL GOP TREASURER

    Cross 54
    Grogan 46


  46. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:31 pm:

    Quinn 85

    Rauner 35-40

    Rodney Davis Wins
    Travis Wins
    Guzzardi Wins

    Boykin Wins 38 (in this order)
    Carothers
    Sercye
    Smith
    Other candidate


  47. - Linus - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:34 pm:

    More Dems and independents requesting GOP ballots than anyone might have guessed - regardless of whether it’s effective.


  48. - Downstate GOP Faithless - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:39 pm:

    And not a prediction as much as a hope but wishing all these guys stave off the Proft spending and he shuts up too


  49. - Cassiopeia - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 1:51 pm:

    Heavy Democratic crossover vote for Dillard enables him to edge out Rauner and causes Quinn to lose because of significantly lower Democratic turnout.

    Game over.


  50. - Jake From Elwood - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 2:01 pm:

    I will not win the Mega Millions drawing…
    And Truax edges out Oberweis for US Senate (R).


  51. - phocion - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 2:19 pm:

    Hey Cassiopeia, can I have some of what you’re smoking?


  52. - Steve Downstate - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 2:46 pm:

    Rauner 38
    Dillard 34
    Brady 22
    Rutherford 6

    As a Dem who can’t stomach voting for Quinn again (undercut my pension and my spouse’s), I’m rooting for Rauner and am about to go cast my vote for him. Would love to be able to vote for him in the fall. But Billionare Bruce’s checkbook will probably still win him the nomination, and I’ll be stuck looking for a third-party candidate in November.


  53. - Steve Downstate - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    Yikes! I meant to say I’m rooting for DILLARD. Let’s hope I actually check the right name on the ballot!


  54. - RNUG - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:15 pm:

    It’s a bit of a long shot but I’m guessing Rauner and Dillard end up more or less tied at a figure between 35% and 37%. The difference is only a couple of hundred votes and the presumptive loser calls for a recount.


  55. - Try-4-Truth - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:16 pm:

    “Prediction? — Pain” - Clubber Lang

    Seriously, I don’t think there will be any surprising results tonight. None. Quinn’s margin of victory might surprise, but a small sample size will make it mean nothing.


  56. - Jimbo - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    If only Cass, if only. That would be freaking awesome.

    Besides the crossover, there is surely to be a fair number of vote switchers going from Brady or Rutherford to Dillard, and some will go to Rauner as well. Folks like to vote for a winner, and almost no one believes either of them can win. That plus the crossover says this could be much closer than anyone anticipates, but at the end of the day, I give Dillard one chance in five.


  57. - Jimbo - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:26 pm:

    Either Brady or Rutherford that is, but especially Rutherford.


  58. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:28 pm:

    I predict that the people of Illinois will not win.


  59. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:37 pm:

    What the hell…

    Rauner
    Dillard
    Brady

    Rodney Davis
    Anne Callis

    Morita
    Santos
    Houlihan

    Winters
    Mitchell
    Guzzardi
    Andrade

    five points separate Sercye, Boykin & Carothers


  60. - Labordude - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:47 pm:

    Christian Mitchell wins
    Toni Berrios wins
    Nancy Schiavone wins
    Ike Carrothers wins

    any one or all of these predictions could be wrong. Just my gut.


  61. - connor - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 4:08 pm:

    Treasurer
    Tom Cross - 65
    Bob Brogan - 35

    16th CD
    Kinzinger - 60
    Hale - 40


  62. - connor - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 4:09 pm:

    *Grogan, not Brogan. Stupid autocorrect.


  63. - Blue Dog - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:01 pm:

    Governor
    Rauner - 42
    Dillard - 33
    Brady - 19
    Rutherford - 6

    Quinn- 65
    Hardiman- 35

    13th Congressional
    Davis- 70
    Harold- 28
    Firsching -2

    Gollin -46
    Callis -44
    Green -10

    I’m not sure what the Democratic race is actually polling at, but I am a dem house in that district (pulling a GOP ballot this time) & Gollin has been working it like crazy.

    Also - Campbell beats Barr by 7 points in Sangamon County Sheriff’s race.


  64. - Pre - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:21 pm:

    Rauner - 40%
    Dillard - 36%
    Brady - 19%
    Rutherford - 5%

    Oberweis 53%
    Truax 47%

    Grogan: 44
    Cross: 56

    Davis +23%

    Sandack by >1%, will be up late on this one.


  65. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:45 pm:

    Rauner - 42
    Dillard - 32
    Brady - 20
    Rutherford - 6

    Oberweis by 10

    Cross by 5

    After reading all the Berrios stuff, wins by 75 total votes; turnout, controlled turnout rules the day.

    Sandack wins - Ugly
    Ives wins
    Pihos and Breen go to “Sundown Tomorrow.” Too close to call…literally.

    Rodney Davis clears 75%


  66. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 6:46 pm:

    “After reading all the Berrios stuff, Toni Berrios wins by 75 total votes; turnout, controlled turnout rules the day.”


  67. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 7:03 pm:

    In the Big Ones, (D) PQ: 66% to Tio’s 34%. (R) Rauner: 43%; Dillard: 29%; Brady: 20%; Rutherford: 8%. Also, Oberweis easily wins. I wouldn’t expect too many Shockers anywhere else.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Good morning!
* Final thoughts before calling it a night
* *** UPDATED x3 - Script *** Quinn airs radio ad of Rauner joking about being "scared" of four African-Americans
* Karen Lewis endorses Chuy Garcia for mayor
* Friday night TV ad rating
* Yesterday's blog posts

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        * RNC says "Get Rid of Obamacare - Vote Republican" [video]
        * Netanyahu Responds to "Chickensh**t" Attack [video]
        * A bi-state whodunit – what should we make of Hegewisch, Hoosier slayings
        * All Hollows' Eve, at the Stroke of Midnight, the Calatrava Spire Vanishes, Forever
        * North Side Chicagoans Open Community-Funded Mental Health Center


        * Editorial: Governors, raining taxpayer $ on Illinois
        * Governor Quinn and Mayor Emanuel Thank New Safe Passage Workers - Nearly 700 Additional Workers Hired This Year to Serve 133 Schools, 69,000 Students Across the City
        * Editorial: Rauner best choice as governor to begin to reverse Illinois’ fortunes
        * Quinn to celebrate Rauner’s UI Labs accomplishment
        * Another Democrat Runs Away From Pat Quinn




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