SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Can a positive message work?

Monday, Aug 4, 2014

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Gov. Pat Quinn’s new TV ad is 60 seconds of one positive message after another.

“Pat Quinn sees problems, takes action and gets the job done,” the ad claims. “Now, Illinois is making a comeback,” it continues.

But the spot is being slammed by longtime campaign insiders in both parties as “spitting in the wind.”

For instance, a Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll in June found that a mere 30 percent of Illinoisans thought the state was on the right track, while a a very strong 60 percent majority thought Illinois was on the wrong track.

And an infamous poll taken by Gallup in April found that 50 percent of Illinoisans would move to a different state if given the chance. We were first in the country on that response, according to Gallup. Just 25 percent of Minnesotans, by contrast, felt the same way.

In other words, a positive TV ad campaign is not very likely to change many minds. Way too many people simply hate the way things are going here.

Instead, Democratic critics have been arguing behind the scenes to abandon positivity in the very near future and launch a full-on, brutal assault against Bruce Rauner as soon as possible. And quite a few experienced Republican operatives were scratching their heads at the ad, saying they highly doubted it would move any numbers at all.

The Quinn campaign obviously tested that initial message with focus groups and polling. So, hey, maybe they’re right. But when’s the last time you heard someone say they were proud to live in this state or that things were really starting to turn around?

Meanwhile, the Quinn folks are reportedly hoping to drive up turnout by more than 200,000 votes with the non-binding minimum wage referendum this fall, which asks voters if they support a $10 per hour minimum wage.

That turnout projection has long caused much consternation behind the scenes among people who believe it’s entirely unrealistic. What the Quinnsters are hoping to do has never been done before, critics point out. The Quinn campaign’s projections rely heavily on a record off-year turnout, even though the national and state headwinds are rapidly nearing hurricane force levels and Democratic interest is quite low.

Democrats are hoping to spend as much as $5 million on the minimum wage project to drive otherwise non-motivated “base” voters to go to the polls. US Sen. Dick Durbin’s campaign is reportedly in full agreement and pressure from both Durbin and Quinn has for now forced the Chicago City Council to delay a vote on its own $13 minimum wage ordinance. The cold calculation was that a $13 per hour ordinance passed in September would undermine the Democrats’ $10 per hour efforts in the fall campaign.

On the other side of the fence, Bruce Rauner’s campaign has calculated a more than 300,000 voter turnout increase just to be on the safe side. After Rauner’s unexpectedly narrow GOP primary win (despite internal Rauner polls showing the candidate with a well over twenty-point lead), the Republicans want to be extra sure that they plan for every possible contingency.

To some Democrats, that Rauner internal turnout projection validates their theory of a turnout spike. They believe that early voting, same day registration and other new “tools” will assist them in reaching their goal.

To others, it’s just smart politics by Rauner and overly dangerous optimism by Quinn. In other words, if the spike happens, Rauner will have prepared himself. If it doesn’t happen, Quinn is likely toast.

At least in public, however, Rauner is making some pretty darned inflated claims himself. He reportedly told a group of African-American small businessmen last week that he will get 28 percent of the black vote in Chicago - something that hasn’t been done there in a very long time.

But he’s certainly trying hard. ABC 7’s Charles Thomas reported last week that Rauner committed at that same meeting with black small businessmen to deposit $1 million of his own personal money into a Chicago credit union to be used for small business loans.

The Rauner campaign confirmed the story with Thomas, calling the pledge “one of many steps Bruce will take to reinvigorate our communities that have suffered under the failed policies and broken commitments of politicians.”

That “one of many” phrase has got to send chills up the Quinn campaign’s collective spine.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


18 Comments
  1. - Gooner - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 9:34 am:

    I’ve spent a lot of time bashing Quinn (both as Gov. and as a candidate) but I give him a lot of credit for this.

    A good campaign of any kind — election, military, trial — is going to be fought on grounds that one side chooses.

    Don’t like the turf? Choose a different place to wage the battle. Don’t like the issues in the campaign? Then keep talking about your issues.

    Sure, many people think Illinois is headed in the wrong direction, and to be honest, I’m one of them. But if Gov. Quinn repeatedly claims that the state is going in the right direction, I suspect the message is going to help him. People will start to believe it over time.

    Do I think this is enough to sway the election? No way. But it sure can help and I give them credit for making the effort to change the discussion.


  2. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 9:35 am:

    I suspect both sides will be all negative here on out. The Quinn crew, I guess, felt they had to kick off with a positive intro spot. I doubt if we’ll see much more of it.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 9:41 am:

    Great column, gets to the crux of Quinn’s problems.

    I had thought about this during the weekend, and going through possible numbers, what struck me as the Quinn sweet spot has to come from these two areas;

    Bruce Rauner shortly before the Primary had 10% negatives going into Election Day and the push by those who “know” Bruce Rauner and organized in 6 weeks moved 17 points on Election Day.

    I can not..can not understand… why hammering and shaking the real Bruce Rauner is not the avenue for success?

    Those two areas melding together had the most impact on Rauner and victory than any positive message by the “2″ or “Fiasco Friday Guy”. Those 3 refused to go toe-to-toe, sorry, couldn’t go toe-to-toe, because Rauner sucked the oxygen and cash out of all of them. It was the Unions that understood the negatives, especially and specifically against Rauner, that will move the needle, and get voters to vote against… against…Rauner.

    The negatives of Quinn are going to be hammered home these 90+ days. The complete education of Rauner, with the ground game to back up and reinforce the “lesser of two evils” …is… the winning formula.

    This could be described as “nice guy finishes last, the lesser of two evil guy gets to be called ‘Governor’ come November.”

    Rauner’s negatives need to rise, and quick, and to be rallied around to defeat him. Every day the education fails, is a great day for Rauner’s Crew. It’s a waste, utter waste to go positive, when it’s Rauner’s negatives will move numbers far, far, better.


  4. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    I’m one of the people who want Quinn to go positive.

    We see lots of criticism here and elsewhere. It’s so easy to criticize, but when we’re called forth to provide plans, some of us have bad ideas or just keep up the criticism instead of providing plans.

    Illinois was in rotten shape when Quinn took over. He passed pension reform that should have appeased those on the right who wanted it, but are they grateful? It doesn’t seem like they are.

    We are paying down our bill backlog. Our economic recovery is slow but is progressing. We have two viable pension reform laws in place–Tier 2 and the city pensions. The third law is in court and may ultimately not stand.

    The 2011 income tax increase did help our finances. We now also have medical marijuana coming next year, SSM legalization and Medicaid expansion. Those are big accomplishments, in my opinion.

    I think that part of the problem is us, and it is evident in some of the comments and polling results. We can’t turn the state completely around in a just a few years, but we’re very impatient, and we often have bad ideas or no ideas at all.


  5. - VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 10:29 am:

    This was the election year that voters needed to hear a positive message about the guy they elected last time into office. They needed to know that they made the right choice. They needed to know that their guy was doing his best.

    This is Quinn’s reelection. He is the incumbent. He already won once. He was to build on the votes he won before, then expand. He needed to do that in order to win reelection.

    Voters are in a bad mood. They don’t want to hear more bad. Negative campaign ads will not be welcomed by voters in this campaign. They are already ticked off. Those ticked off voters are voting for change. Telling these voters that the guy representing change this time around sucks more than the incumbent, won’t persuade this time around.

    When the electorate is in a foul mood, incumbents need to put them in a better mood. You do this with good positive ads. Show the incumbent surrounded by happy children. Show the incumbent smiling and pointing to our future. Show the incumbent in charge. Voters want to vote for someone.

    This is what I have been posting here since March. Quinn is losing because he hasn’t been doing this. Those pushing for negative attack ads are wrong. 2014 is not the year for Quinn to do little but try and demolish Rauner.

    Quinn is governor already. Rauner can’t win if Quinn convinces the same voters who voted him in last time that they were right in 2010. Rauner can’t win if Quinn convinces voters that things are getting better. This is Quinn’s election to lose.


  6. - walker - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 10:40 am:

    Standard practice to launch an attacking campaign after a couple of positive ads. You can then say you were driven to it by your opponent’s attacks.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    ===Quinn is governor already. Rauner can’t win if Quinn convinces the same voters who voted him in last time that they were right in 2010. Rauner can’t win if Quinn convinces voters that things are getting better. This is Quinn’s election to lose.===

    It’s not a referendum, no matter how you try to type it differently.

    The lesser of two evils, buys into the foul mood, and which of the negative points will be helpful to attack the other.

    It’s not an “up or down” on Quinn, it’s about which of these two are the least worst.

    The rest you reinforce your false premise is more wishful thinking than anything else.


  8. - A guy... - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 10:49 am:

    A positive message does occasionally work. This isn’t such an occasion. There’s just not enough to work with. All those few positives mentioned by others point to a huge negative; a tax increase and the potential for even higher property taxes with a shift coming down the pipe. See a straw…grasp.


  9. - RNUG - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 11:08 am:

    Actually glad to see a positive ad. The candidates need to tell us why we should like them. And, even though I;m not a Quinn fan, I did note the other day he does have a lot of small victories to talk about.

    Is Illinois in great shape? No, but it actually is in better shape than it was 4 years ago. Gievn all the non-stop negativity the past years, it might be hard to convince the voters … but it is incrementally better.

    As far as the 50% would move opinion, I’m not surprised. I’m sure the non-stop negative news stores are part of what is driving the sentiment.


  10. - Soccermom - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 12:19 pm:

    I think it’s harder to make a positive ad “stick.” What are some positive ads that stand out in your memory? (Beyond PQ’s “you know me” ad in the 2010 primary, which was lovely.)


  11. - steve schnorf - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 12:23 pm:

    Mom, “Morning in America”


  12. - Soccermom - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 12:29 pm:

    that was a long time ago, Steve.


  13. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Schnorf, Soccermom, I’d say Jodi Ernst’s spot this year where she cheerfully recalls her experiences “slashing pork” on the family farm was nearly perfect for an Iowa statewide GOP primary. A home run for memorability, that’s for sure.


  14. - Soccermom - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 12:56 pm:

    Yeah, Word — I was thinking about Sean Duffy’s spots as well. I wasn’t sure whether they exactly count as “positive,” since they’re focused on “cleaning up the mess.” But similar notions, and tailored to the electorate.


  15. - steve schnorf - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    Mom, which means it really stuck in my mind


  16. - persecuted - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 3:24 pm:

    To Rich and all that read and comment here and to the candidates, I would like to apologize for last statement. That was uncalled for. I should always write things down on paper and not put on line until I’ve thought it over for a couple of hours. Again, I’m sorry.


  17. - Precinct Captain - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 3:34 pm:

    ==- Soccermom - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 12:19 pm:=

    PQ had two really good “you know me” ads in 2010, one in the primary and one in the general.


  18. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Aug 4, 14 @ 4:16 pm:

    It is not the ad, it is the theme.

    Yes we can!

    Bridge to the 21st Century.

    Look, I will defend Quinn here.

    They feel like their drowning, throw your voters a lifesaver to hold onto, THEN fire your torpedoes at the enemy ship.

    Or, look at this way:

    If you feel your voters stampeding, you gotta build a corral before you try to round them back up.

    Plus,they haven’t really done enough damage yet with the earned media to try to amplify any particular attack.

    Will it get negative? Yeah. 9 homes, five tax shelters in the Caribbean, and a Red Sox team owner?

    Nine homes is eight more than most Illinoisans will own in their lifetimes.

    Maybe it’s time for Rauner to start dropping some cash on the homeless.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Today's number: 89 percent
* Today's video: Rauner victory lap
* Ask a silly question...
* Blagojevich arrested eight years ago today
* Pritzker, Lisa Madigan added to enemies list
* Rauner loves him some DeVos
* Good news for Mitsubishi plant?
* Cullerton to Rauner: Cut a deal with AFSCME before pension reform
* The finger-pointing continues
* Sneed: Madigan "disappointed" in Kennedy's fundraising this year
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Can this concept HTC 11 make sense as company rebounds?
* Next European Galaxy Note 7 discharge update progresses to 30 percent
* US carriers detail Note 7 discharge update and why Verizon didn’t announce a date
* Should Microsoft still try to make a 3-in-1 device?
* Reports of margin call halt LeEco stock trading, company plans immediate business changes
* Prepare to buy the Huawei Mate 9 on January 6 in the U.S.
* Fitbit CEO drops some details on the Pebble acquisition

* Following up: Mr. Eaton’s drama goes to Washington
* Abreu thrilled for reunion with Moncada
* Giolito excited to join White Sox talent haul
* Winter meetings transformative for White Sox
* White Sox steal show at Winter Meetings
* Adam Eaton delivered despite doubters
* A tale of two Sox at Winter Meetings

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Our View: Could Madigan bring movement to budge.....
* Bernard Schoenburg: Schobin, Joost among Spring.....
* Andy Shaw: Radical changes needed when it comes.....
* Illinois’ political games on budget may be wrec.....


* EXCHANGE: Students use notes to counter racist graffiti
* EXCHANGE: Class credited for no post-election negativity
* Suburban cop put on desk duty after excessive force report
* Quincy University cuts 14 jobs as it faces $5M budget hole
* East St. Louis official resigns after corruption guilty plea
* Report: Illinois Lottery didn't pay major scratch-off wins
* Authorities: 1 dead in small plane crash in Illinois
* Northern Illinois braces for up to 12 inches of snow
* U of Illinois inks 10-year deal to buy energy from wind farm
* U of Illinois inks 10-year deal to buy energy from wind farm

* State of Illinois' woes loom large for local fundraisers
* Implications of 'lockbox' amendment still being examined
* Day center services' pros, cons debated in Springfield
* Day center services' pros, cons debated
* State's woes loom large for local fundraisers
* Anti-abortion medical providers argue against Illinois law
* $3M in emergency funds headed to Illinois community colleges
* Springfield-area veterans join pipeline protest
* Rauner asks Democrats for budget proposal, cancels meeting
* Comptroller: State employee bonuses on hold during impasse

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* No warranty on Allstate's billion-dollar acquisition of SquareTrade
* Airbnb is banned from more and more Chicago condo buildings
* Public pensions have a ton of leverage. They should use it.
* How outmoded technology is clipping United's wings


* Editorial: Real fight at CPS is for cleaner government everywhere
* Man shot in West Pullman
* Man shot in Lawndale
* Illinois Tollway mobilizes fleet of snowplows for recent snowfall
* 16-year-old boy killed in NW Indiana crash
* Dear Abby: Ratty clothes on boy may be a ploy
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Dec. 11, 2016
* Man wounded in North Austin shooting
* Like Bulls, Erik Spoelsta appreciates Dywane Wade’s leadership
* Lamar Jackson becomes youngest winner in Heisman Trophy history


* Grand Crossing man charged in attack of 94-year-old woman
* 4 wounded in shootings on West, South sides
* Widow of man slain in Aurora one year ago: 'We need to find these killers'
* Bulls survive Heat 105-100 in rivalry that isn't what it used to be
* Republican John Kennedy wins Louisiana Senate runoff, giving GOP 52-48 edge
* Indiana police officer, 2nd man injured in gunfire exchange
* Trump expected to tap Exxon's Tillerson for State, even as Russia ties raise concerns
* Chicago gun violence having impact on local basketball recruits, coaches
* 29 killed, 166 wounded in twin bombings near soccer stadium: Turkish minister
* Who is Rex Tillerson, dark-horse candidate for secretary of state?


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* State of Illinois' woes loom large for local fundraisers
* Implications of 'lockbox' amendment still being examined
* Day center services' pros, cons debated in Springfield
* Bernard Schoenburg: Schobin, Joost among Springfield staff for Mendoza, Duckworth
* Statehouse Insider: The ball's in your court. No, it's in your court.
* Andy Shaw: Radical changes needed for budget negotiations in Illinois
* Our View: Could Madigan bring movement to budget situation?
* Day center services' pros, cons debated
* John Kelker: New website offers tips on money management
* State's woes loom large for local fundraisers


* After Standing Rock win, local activists decide what's next
* PHOTOS: Adolph Mueller Home and Edward Irving Home Tours
* Cats can get stressed-out by holidays
* Reaching out: Remembering the homebound beyond the holidays
* Real Estate Transfers
* Scovill Zoo hosts pre-Christmas pajama party
* Fowler Bonan Foundation seeks support, growth for Clothes for SI Kids program
* Lucille Osman
* Bart Umdenstock
* Donald Hertz


* Iran says it's finalized $16.6B Boeing deal to buy 80 planes
* Bombing at Egypt's main Coptic Christian cathedral kills 25
* Hospital director: 160 dead in collapsed Nigerian church
* The Latest: Death toll in Turkish attack rises to 38
* Sydney scores late penalty to remain undefeated in A-League

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Greg Hinz on Politics Look who wants to be......

* Sen. Mark Kirk Cheers Illinoisans, Cubs Du......

* Jesus Ortiz, Missing Since September, Found On West Side
* Old School
* No sanctuary for undocumented students at the University of Illinois.
* Holiday Pop-Up Market Saturday, 3pm-9pm
* D.C. map.
* Shedd School as seen in December
* Looking for more ‘REALTORS® Give Back’ stories
* Breaking. Judge orders TRO against Rauner and for state workers.
* Keeping retirement weird. My mother never asked permission to protest.
* Just over 80 days away ‘til Election Day (already?!?), at least for some of us


* Criminal justice, health services stakeholders convene for Data-Driven Health & Justice Conference - Event will emphasize innovative strategies to address “superutilizers” of emergency departments and jails
* Know Before You Go with IDOT'SWinter Road Conditions Map
* Governor’s Export Awards Recipients Announced
* Governor Signs Legislation to Protect Jobs, Ratepayers and Taxpayers
* Give The Gift Of A Lifetime With A College Illinois!® 529 Prepaid Tuition Plan - College Illinois! can help limit or even eliminate future student loan debt




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller