SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Rothenberg tips race slightly to Rauner

Tuesday, Aug 5, 2014

* From Stu Rothenberger’s outfit

Democrats’ best strategy appears to be to turn GOP nominee Bruce Rauner, a wealthy businessman, into “Mitt Romney on steroids.” It could work, but to call this race a tossup right now would be understating Quinn’s standing in the race.

We’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican, giving the GOP a narrow advantage to capture the state in November.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


31 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Again, Bias I say sir, Bias…

    Good day sir…


  2. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Apparently this written before Flip’s call for doing a PATCO on teachers, cops and firemen. Perhaps a folo up call should be done.


  3. - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    Wouldn’t it be “overstating” not “understating” Quinn’s standing in the race?


  4. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Bruce Rauner is up 6-10 points right now.

    Rauner has the money to frame Quinn with Quinn’s baggage as damaging as it is, and October is not going to be better with Quinn, with the US Attorney possibly moving on an ongoing federal investigation, and commission hearings on parallel tracks rolling up to Election Day.

    All that is true.

    Gotta finish.

    Quinn is going to try the “Mitt Romney on steroids”, and will have a formidable GOTV with Unions anchoring that orchestrated program.

    Throw in “who is going to handle same day registration” better, and who can truly, honestly, efficiently, ID their pluses, and vote every single ID’d pluses…that is who is going to win.

    Rauner up 6-10, but some slim hope for Quinn. Slim hope, and this decision reflects that.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Understating his negative standing, perhaps, was what was meant.


  6. - Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:10 pm:

    Sounds about. Turnout is going to be a bit unpredictable with the new registration rules, but Tilt-R is the feeling right now.


  7. - Very Fed Up - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:12 pm:

    The one thing Quinn will for sure not do is run on his record. Expect nonstop attacks on Bruce Rauners personal wealth.


  8. - Cassiopeia - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:16 pm:

    Bill Hyers, Quinn’s campaign strategist, just put out a fundraising email that says of Rauner”He avoided paying Illinois and federal taxes by stashing money in the Cayman Islands”

    I must have missed that part of the story but it looks like the Quinn strategy is to take a fact and then imagine the most negative “possible” charge to make.

    Desperation by Team Quinn.


  9. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:17 pm:

    These guys only cautiously confirm what guys watching Illinois politics already see happening.

    Nothing that has happened over the past month is a game changer for Quinn. Quinn needs more positive ads or he can’t gain from Rauner’s errors. His campaign is almost non-existent outside Cook County. I’ve heard from my connections that Durbin’s people have already prepared for a Governor Rauner, when at this stage in 2010, they thought he could beat Brady even though the polls said otherwise.

    Don’t expect any help for the Governor from Downstate in November. The Democrats are begging their base to even put up yard signs this time. Completely demotivated.

    Maybe the Fair this month will help. Quinn has to do something to turn this mood around.


  10. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:21 pm:

    Then comes October, which will cause Quinn to probably lose a lot of support he now has. He has to be ahead in the polls enough to lose that support during October and still remain in the race.

    Based on what I’ve heard so far - Rauner is going to have to be found doing something a whole lot worse than earning and spending millions of his own money to lose to Quinn between now and November.

    And no - painting Rauner as Romney isn’t going to hurt Rauner. It will only make him look as competent as former Governor Romney.


  11. - Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    Quinn better start listening to YDD or else he’s a goner.


  12. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    The other thing is, if I were the Quinnsters I would be holding fire a bit on some of this stuff, it’s early August and I am not the ‘he is really rich’ stuff isn’t going to become background noise by October.


  13. - A guy... - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:31 pm:

    A toe in the water today. Ankle deep next week. Swimming by October. A hope and a prayer on my part supported by some old fashioned shoe leather.


  14. - James Knell - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    It’s frightening that many people haven’t learned their Blago-Ryan lesson. When someone runs for governor, and they tell you they are going to cut taxes but they won’t tell you what they will cut, they are not being honest. Quinn is at least honest. Apparently, a lot of people still like to be lied to. Rauner will probably turn Illinois into a Wisconsin like political war zone. That’s not good for business or anyone accept for Oligarchs like Bruce Rauner. It’s a path better not taken.


  15. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:43 pm:

    Vanilla Man, I think Rauner’s tax plan was a game changer for me. I agree with you, however, that it has not yet been a game changer for a significant amount of others.

    I think his plan seems designed to slow the economy and add additional burdens on business.

    The real question though is how many voters will hear that same message, and of those that do, how many will chose to believe it.

    Right now, on paper Quinn seems to be better for business. When I look at the plans, I like Quinn’s better.

    But voters tend to think that the GOP is better for business, and even if Quinn gets that message out, I’m not sure it will connect.

    It changed the game for me, and it has the potential to change it for others. We will see if it actually happens.

    My hunch (and of course, the Gooner hunch is highly valued [snark]) is that the race does lean Rauner.

    On the other hand, I also think Rauner has been running a pretty bad campaign, so although has the inside track, this one is far from over.

    Rauner needs to stay vague until November. The more substance he tries to add, the worse he will do.

    He’s needs to learn that when you are winning, shut the heck up. The more you talk, the more votes you will lose.


  16. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    James Knell

    Well at least you didn’t use the phrase low information voter…

    Also I would be a little more impressed with Quinn’s honesty if he insisted on a real budget, since taxes are going to be cut and he didn’t bother on insisting on a budget that reflected that.


  17. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    –“Mitt Romney on steroids.”–

    “Ultimate insider who got rich on taxpayer-financed pay-to-play deals and Medicaid nursing home bustouts” is much better.

    Can the Quinn crew find some outside group to finance spots to hang Emanuel around Rauner’s neck (without coordination, of course, lol)?

    Emanuel and that hinky SBC deal (with Bill Daley, to boot) would be grist for the Chicago base and Undecideds.


  18. - Sue - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:59 pm:

    could someone please tell me what Quinn will do differently during another term which would improve upon Illinois’ financial and employment situation- Why would anyone other then the Union constituency want to see Quinn reelected?


  19. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    ==Why would anyone other then the Union constituency want to see Quinn reelected?==

    I’m not a “union constituency” and I’m not voting for Rauner at this point in time. I don’t vote for people simply because they aren’t the other guy. I have to be convinced that they are the right person for the job. Rauner hasn’t convinced me and it’s mostly because, from what I’ve seen, his fiscal plans will wreck the state more than it is now. If I have to choose between Quinn and Rauner right now I choose Quinn. Rauner still has a chance to convince me. He can do that by showing me he has the first clue about state finances. He better hurry up.


  20. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:08 pm:

    Sue,

    Unlike Rauner, Quinn will not attack demand by imposing an additional sales tax.

    A sales tax raises prices and creates an incentive for people not to buy goods/services.

    Those of us who make a living selling goods and services would prefer not to have demanded for products reduced by a plan like Rauner’s.

    Glad I can clear that up for you, Sue!

    By the way Sue, although Quinn has union endorsements, many are not too happy with him. You may want to do some reading on that topic.


  21. - low level - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    For one thing, I’d like the state govt not to shut down like the Fed Govt did last October, which would up costing billions of dollars and accomplished nothing. I also like candidates who I think can relate to me. Unless I win the lottery, I can’t relate to Bruce.


  22. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    Yup - he’s got that right.


  23. - WootBaseball - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:38 pm:

    Rothenberger is a nothingburger.

    (Btw, his last name is actually Rothenberg.)


  24. - Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:43 pm:

    ==Those of us who make a living selling goods and services would prefer not to have demanded for products reduced by a plan like Rauner’s.==

    The way I read the plan, the current sales tax rate would not increase. Certain services not currently taxed would se one implemented, mirroring most other States. What you conveniently leave out is the additional matter of the income tax be reduced. The end result would be a bottom line increase in disposable income for most people and businesses.


  25. - Buzzie - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Let’s not forget that even if Rauner wins there will still be a Democratic House and Senate; states like Wisconsin and Indiana had post-election Republican governors, houses and senates.


  26. - walker - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 4:46 pm:

    Rauner looks to be ahead right now. Very early, and a lot of driving variables could change. It is still mostly anti-incumbent, rather than pro-challenger.


  27. - Common Sense - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 6:36 pm:

    Take it to Bank. Governor Pat Quinn will be re-elected.


  28. - (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:03 pm:

    @VM 1:17
    I am from Southern IL. and have worked with or on many campaigns the last 30 years plus. Your assertion about “Durbin’s people” and about yard signs is completely inaccurate.


  29. - Jechislo - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:08 pm:

    This is definitely a pro-Quinn anti-Rauner site. I’m beginning to sense a desperation attitude by the Quinn folks.

    I’m gladly beginning to feel that Rauner is really ahead, and will stay ahead and will win this race.

    I’ll gladly say goodbye to Quinn.


  30. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:13 pm:

    J,
    I think Rauner does well when he does not have to undergo scrutiny.
    The more people hear from him, the less they like him.
    Given that this site closely follows Quinn and Rauner, it is sort of inevitable that there is a pro-Quinn bias from many.
    The “Quinn folks” to some degree are simply people who have spent time listening to Rauner. I know that is the case for me.


  31. - Quiet Sage - Wednesday, Aug 6, 14 @ 9:06 am:

    All other things being equal, I believe Quinn could pull this out. He’s a great underdog campaigner (see 2010) and Rauner’s got huge baggage and is threatening to many core constituencies. All other things being equal. But this is more than likely to be a huge Republican year. So Illinois either will stand as a political island in the middle of the nation (not impossible with our incredibly local-centric political culture) or Rauner will be swept in by the countrywide tide.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Rauner lambasted, even called "traitor" for siding with Democrats on abortion bill
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Remap reformers say recordings of Con-Con debates support their case
* Question of the day
* Sunlight Foundation tags the wrong Michael J. Madigan
* Rauner vetoes bills pushed by disability advocates, first responders, unions
* Independent Maps has appealed to the Illinois Supreme Court
* Rauner signs three controversial bills: Marijuana decriminalization, Contraception coverage; "Right of Conscience Act"
* Republicans "pledge" not to vote for Madigan for Speaker
* More on the Lottery announcement
* Caption contest!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Whatever the number is, it's still pretty darned high
* Careful what you wish for
* Duckworth speech focused on Trump as new ads slam her
* Just legalize it, already
* Today's number: 32 percent
* Cullerton repeats demand that Rauner will decide tax hike
* One way 2016 could impact 2018
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Is it over or not?
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Apple sales records, Blackberry security, and we get stuff wrong | Pocketnow Weekly 211
* If the Priv failed to get BlackBerry back, can the DTEK50?
* Galaxy Note 7 Pricing and ETA, iPhone 7 adapter & more – Pocketnow Daily
* Google brings historic Rio exhibits and landmarks to a digital art collection
* New Samsung Gear VR for Galaxy Note 7 leaks ahead of launch
* Brexit waves hit HTC Vive price
* OnePlus gives ROM developers access to Dash Charge kernels

* TradeThread: Working the weekend
* Jose Abreu has a new weakness
* Eaton's HR all White Sox muster in 12-inning loss
* Quintana validating All-Star nod with stellar stretch
* White Sox listening to offers ahead of Deadline
* Frazier day to day with flu-like symptoms
* Morneau reflects on friendships in Minnesota

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* LETTER: Rauner holds contempt for teachers - Ga.....
* Pro-Life Action League: We trusted Gov Rauner t.....
* Rauner lambasted, even called “traitor” for sid.....
* Rep. Morrison: Rauner’s message is religious be.....
* The people Rod Blagojevich left behind..
* BROWN: State rep, adopted, ‘always wanted a sis.....
* States’ flag-burning laws unconstitutional, but.....
* Rauner Signs Plan Limiting Mentally Ill from Ow.....
* Rauner signs law extending contraceptive insura.....
* Gov. Rauner Curtails Conscience Rights by Signi.....


* Correction: Chicago Violence-Mills Shot story
* East Chicago wants to demolish housing on contaminated site
* States' flag-burning laws unconstitutional, but persist
* Courts derail voting limits pushed by GOP in 3 states
* U of Illinois chancellor brings wide-ranging experience
* Illinois man sentenced for nursing home sex scheme
* Father, son plead not guilty in ISU assault, drug case
* 'Drunkard list' is limiting public intoxication in Aurora
* 2 Chicago officers relieved of powers after suspect killed
* EXCHANGE: Mattoon business rebuilds vintage campers

* Rauner vetoes bill to keep seniors in their homes
* Rauner signs law extending contraceptive insurance coverage
* Governor signs bill reducing marijuana penalties in Illinois
* Duckworth lawsuit settlement final, attorney general says
* Illinois seeking new private manager for state's lottery
* Attorney General: Duckworth lawsuit settlement final
* Health-care hiring keeps local unemployment at lowest in state
* Local unemployment again lowest in state for June
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divide Illinois
* Illinois seeking new private manager for state's lotter

* GOP still betting millions on Madigan's unpopularity
* Chicago's budget gap: $137.6 million
* Why aren't more Chicago businesses adopting schools?
* Rauner signs bill reducing pot penalties
* Behind Harvard shakeup, a star trading desk that unraveled fast


* Can Harold Jones-Quartey be answer at safety for Bears?
* What we saw: Day 3 of Bears training camp
* Bears GM: Kyle Long improving, injury outlook ‘positive’
* No need to solo; local teen wins chance to fly with Harrison Ford
* Hot air balloon carrying at least 16 people crashes in Texas
* BROWN: State rep, adopted, ‘always wanted a sister,’ now has 3
* Near North Side post office evacuated due to A/C problem
* WATCHDOGS: 18 aldermen avoid hefty property-tax hikes, 5 pay less
* SWEET: After Trump tweak, Democrats plant their flags
* Bears sign LB Willie Young to a two-year extension


* What to watch for at Rio's opening ceremony
* One mom, 14 children, and the grace of caring
* Two officers relieved of police powers in fatal South Shore shooting
* Photos: Lollapalooza 2016
* Malia Obama spotted at Lollapalooza
* Live blog: Lollapalooza day three
* 13 injured in 'heat-related' incident at post office on Near North Side
* Officials believe 16 dead after hot air balloon catches fire, crashes in Texas
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 7/30/16
* Bears, Willie Young agree to contract extension


* Rauner vetoes bill to keep seniors in their homes
* Dr. Thomas Kerins: Ending high school PARCC a good first step
* Rauner signs law extending contraceptive insurance coverage
* Governor signs bill reducing marijuana penalties in Illinois
* Charles Krauthammer: What's the case for Hillary?
* Duckworth lawsuit settlement final, attorney general says
* Illinois seeking new private manager for state's lottery
* Attorney General: Duckworth lawsuit settlement final
* Health-care hiring keeps local unemployment at lowest in state
* Local unemployment again lowest in state for June


* Clouds, cool temps greet 14,280 Bix 7 participants
* Friends meet up, tell stories at post-Bix party
* 12-year-old girl joins Patriot Guards for Bix 7
* Davenport Police respond to car vs. train accident
* 25 years of partying on Kirkwood
* Cooler temperatures kept injuries down at Bix
* Mowry family travels from Ohio
* Turn onto Kirkwood attracts crowd
* Turn onto Kirkwood attracts Bix crowd
* Early-morning tunes, prayers make way for runners at the Bix


* Wizard magic: JK Rowling hopes Harry Potter play goes global
* Officials believe at least 16 died in Texas balloon crash
* 2016 Rio Olympics medal projections
* The Latest: Mickelson makes a bold prediction
* Stakeout ends: Elgin police detain one man on National Street

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to......

* Senate and House bipartisan effort to help......

* Poll: Democrats pick Durbin to challenge Rauner in 2018
* Possessing small amounts of marijuana in Illinois will no longer land you in jail
*
* December 2007 - Agenda Items
* Committee on Historical Landmark Preservation Agenda, December 3, 2007
* November 2007
* Community Development Commission Meeting Agenda, Tuesday, November 13, 2007
* Housing and Real Estate Committee Meeting Agenda, Friday, November 9, 2007
* Zoning Board of Appeals Meeting Agenda, Friday, November 16, 2007
* October 2007


* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Governor Announces Appointments
* Governor Rauner and Illinois Lottery Seek New Management Partner
* College Changes Everything™ Conference Highlights Critical Role Of Higher Education In Economic Recovery And Growth
* Summer Camp Builds Bonds between Incarcerated Moms and Children




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller