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Rothenberg tips race slightly to Rauner

Tuesday, Aug 5, 2014

* From Stu Rothenberger’s outfit

Democrats’ best strategy appears to be to turn GOP nominee Bruce Rauner, a wealthy businessman, into “Mitt Romney on steroids.” It could work, but to call this race a tossup right now would be understating Quinn’s standing in the race.

We’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican, giving the GOP a narrow advantage to capture the state in November.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


31 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Again, Bias I say sir, Bias…

    Good day sir…


  2. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Apparently this written before Flip’s call for doing a PATCO on teachers, cops and firemen. Perhaps a folo up call should be done.


  3. - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    Wouldn’t it be “overstating” not “understating” Quinn’s standing in the race?


  4. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Bruce Rauner is up 6-10 points right now.

    Rauner has the money to frame Quinn with Quinn’s baggage as damaging as it is, and October is not going to be better with Quinn, with the US Attorney possibly moving on an ongoing federal investigation, and commission hearings on parallel tracks rolling up to Election Day.

    All that is true.

    Gotta finish.

    Quinn is going to try the “Mitt Romney on steroids”, and will have a formidable GOTV with Unions anchoring that orchestrated program.

    Throw in “who is going to handle same day registration” better, and who can truly, honestly, efficiently, ID their pluses, and vote every single ID’d pluses…that is who is going to win.

    Rauner up 6-10, but some slim hope for Quinn. Slim hope, and this decision reflects that.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Understating his negative standing, perhaps, was what was meant.


  6. - Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:10 pm:

    Sounds about. Turnout is going to be a bit unpredictable with the new registration rules, but Tilt-R is the feeling right now.


  7. - Very Fed Up - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:12 pm:

    The one thing Quinn will for sure not do is run on his record. Expect nonstop attacks on Bruce Rauners personal wealth.


  8. - Cassiopeia - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:16 pm:

    Bill Hyers, Quinn’s campaign strategist, just put out a fundraising email that says of Rauner”He avoided paying Illinois and federal taxes by stashing money in the Cayman Islands”

    I must have missed that part of the story but it looks like the Quinn strategy is to take a fact and then imagine the most negative “possible” charge to make.

    Desperation by Team Quinn.


  9. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:17 pm:

    These guys only cautiously confirm what guys watching Illinois politics already see happening.

    Nothing that has happened over the past month is a game changer for Quinn. Quinn needs more positive ads or he can’t gain from Rauner’s errors. His campaign is almost non-existent outside Cook County. I’ve heard from my connections that Durbin’s people have already prepared for a Governor Rauner, when at this stage in 2010, they thought he could beat Brady even though the polls said otherwise.

    Don’t expect any help for the Governor from Downstate in November. The Democrats are begging their base to even put up yard signs this time. Completely demotivated.

    Maybe the Fair this month will help. Quinn has to do something to turn this mood around.


  10. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:21 pm:

    Then comes October, which will cause Quinn to probably lose a lot of support he now has. He has to be ahead in the polls enough to lose that support during October and still remain in the race.

    Based on what I’ve heard so far - Rauner is going to have to be found doing something a whole lot worse than earning and spending millions of his own money to lose to Quinn between now and November.

    And no - painting Rauner as Romney isn’t going to hurt Rauner. It will only make him look as competent as former Governor Romney.


  11. - Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    Quinn better start listening to YDD or else he’s a goner.


  12. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    The other thing is, if I were the Quinnsters I would be holding fire a bit on some of this stuff, it’s early August and I am not the ‘he is really rich’ stuff isn’t going to become background noise by October.


  13. - A guy... - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:31 pm:

    A toe in the water today. Ankle deep next week. Swimming by October. A hope and a prayer on my part supported by some old fashioned shoe leather.


  14. - James Knell - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    It’s frightening that many people haven’t learned their Blago-Ryan lesson. When someone runs for governor, and they tell you they are going to cut taxes but they won’t tell you what they will cut, they are not being honest. Quinn is at least honest. Apparently, a lot of people still like to be lied to. Rauner will probably turn Illinois into a Wisconsin like political war zone. That’s not good for business or anyone accept for Oligarchs like Bruce Rauner. It’s a path better not taken.


  15. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:43 pm:

    Vanilla Man, I think Rauner’s tax plan was a game changer for me. I agree with you, however, that it has not yet been a game changer for a significant amount of others.

    I think his plan seems designed to slow the economy and add additional burdens on business.

    The real question though is how many voters will hear that same message, and of those that do, how many will chose to believe it.

    Right now, on paper Quinn seems to be better for business. When I look at the plans, I like Quinn’s better.

    But voters tend to think that the GOP is better for business, and even if Quinn gets that message out, I’m not sure it will connect.

    It changed the game for me, and it has the potential to change it for others. We will see if it actually happens.

    My hunch (and of course, the Gooner hunch is highly valued [snark]) is that the race does lean Rauner.

    On the other hand, I also think Rauner has been running a pretty bad campaign, so although has the inside track, this one is far from over.

    Rauner needs to stay vague until November. The more substance he tries to add, the worse he will do.

    He’s needs to learn that when you are winning, shut the heck up. The more you talk, the more votes you will lose.


  16. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    James Knell

    Well at least you didn’t use the phrase low information voter…

    Also I would be a little more impressed with Quinn’s honesty if he insisted on a real budget, since taxes are going to be cut and he didn’t bother on insisting on a budget that reflected that.


  17. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    –“Mitt Romney on steroids.”–

    “Ultimate insider who got rich on taxpayer-financed pay-to-play deals and Medicaid nursing home bustouts” is much better.

    Can the Quinn crew find some outside group to finance spots to hang Emanuel around Rauner’s neck (without coordination, of course, lol)?

    Emanuel and that hinky SBC deal (with Bill Daley, to boot) would be grist for the Chicago base and Undecideds.


  18. - Sue - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:59 pm:

    could someone please tell me what Quinn will do differently during another term which would improve upon Illinois’ financial and employment situation- Why would anyone other then the Union constituency want to see Quinn reelected?


  19. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    ==Why would anyone other then the Union constituency want to see Quinn reelected?==

    I’m not a “union constituency” and I’m not voting for Rauner at this point in time. I don’t vote for people simply because they aren’t the other guy. I have to be convinced that they are the right person for the job. Rauner hasn’t convinced me and it’s mostly because, from what I’ve seen, his fiscal plans will wreck the state more than it is now. If I have to choose between Quinn and Rauner right now I choose Quinn. Rauner still has a chance to convince me. He can do that by showing me he has the first clue about state finances. He better hurry up.


  20. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:08 pm:

    Sue,

    Unlike Rauner, Quinn will not attack demand by imposing an additional sales tax.

    A sales tax raises prices and creates an incentive for people not to buy goods/services.

    Those of us who make a living selling goods and services would prefer not to have demanded for products reduced by a plan like Rauner’s.

    Glad I can clear that up for you, Sue!

    By the way Sue, although Quinn has union endorsements, many are not too happy with him. You may want to do some reading on that topic.


  21. - low level - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    For one thing, I’d like the state govt not to shut down like the Fed Govt did last October, which would up costing billions of dollars and accomplished nothing. I also like candidates who I think can relate to me. Unless I win the lottery, I can’t relate to Bruce.


  22. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    Yup - he’s got that right.


  23. - WootBaseball - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:38 pm:

    Rothenberger is a nothingburger.

    (Btw, his last name is actually Rothenberg.)


  24. - Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:43 pm:

    ==Those of us who make a living selling goods and services would prefer not to have demanded for products reduced by a plan like Rauner’s.==

    The way I read the plan, the current sales tax rate would not increase. Certain services not currently taxed would se one implemented, mirroring most other States. What you conveniently leave out is the additional matter of the income tax be reduced. The end result would be a bottom line increase in disposable income for most people and businesses.


  25. - Buzzie - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Let’s not forget that even if Rauner wins there will still be a Democratic House and Senate; states like Wisconsin and Indiana had post-election Republican governors, houses and senates.


  26. - walker - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 4:46 pm:

    Rauner looks to be ahead right now. Very early, and a lot of driving variables could change. It is still mostly anti-incumbent, rather than pro-challenger.


  27. - Common Sense - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 6:36 pm:

    Take it to Bank. Governor Pat Quinn will be re-elected.


  28. - (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:03 pm:

    @VM 1:17
    I am from Southern IL. and have worked with or on many campaigns the last 30 years plus. Your assertion about “Durbin’s people” and about yard signs is completely inaccurate.


  29. - Jechislo - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:08 pm:

    This is definitely a pro-Quinn anti-Rauner site. I’m beginning to sense a desperation attitude by the Quinn folks.

    I’m gladly beginning to feel that Rauner is really ahead, and will stay ahead and will win this race.

    I’ll gladly say goodbye to Quinn.


  30. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:13 pm:

    J,
    I think Rauner does well when he does not have to undergo scrutiny.
    The more people hear from him, the less they like him.
    Given that this site closely follows Quinn and Rauner, it is sort of inevitable that there is a pro-Quinn bias from many.
    The “Quinn folks” to some degree are simply people who have spent time listening to Rauner. I know that is the case for me.


  31. - Quiet Sage - Wednesday, Aug 6, 14 @ 9:06 am:

    All other things being equal, I believe Quinn could pull this out. He’s a great underdog campaigner (see 2010) and Rauner’s got huge baggage and is threatening to many core constituencies. All other things being equal. But this is more than likely to be a huge Republican year. So Illinois either will stand as a political island in the middle of the nation (not impossible with our incredibly local-centric political culture) or Rauner will be swept in by the countrywide tide.


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* Good morning!
* Final thoughts before calling it a night
* *** UPDATED x2 - Script *** Quinn airs radio ad of Rauner joking about being "scared" of four African-Americans
* Karen Lewis endorses Chuy Garcia for mayor
* Friday night TV ad rating
* Yesterday's blog posts

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