SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Rothenberg tips race slightly to Rauner

Tuesday, Aug 5, 2014

* From Stu Rothenberger’s outfit

Democrats’ best strategy appears to be to turn GOP nominee Bruce Rauner, a wealthy businessman, into “Mitt Romney on steroids.” It could work, but to call this race a tossup right now would be understating Quinn’s standing in the race.

We’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican, giving the GOP a narrow advantage to capture the state in November.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


31 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Again, Bias I say sir, Bias…

    Good day sir…


  2. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Apparently this written before Flip’s call for doing a PATCO on teachers, cops and firemen. Perhaps a folo up call should be done.


  3. - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    Wouldn’t it be “overstating” not “understating” Quinn’s standing in the race?


  4. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Bruce Rauner is up 6-10 points right now.

    Rauner has the money to frame Quinn with Quinn’s baggage as damaging as it is, and October is not going to be better with Quinn, with the US Attorney possibly moving on an ongoing federal investigation, and commission hearings on parallel tracks rolling up to Election Day.

    All that is true.

    Gotta finish.

    Quinn is going to try the “Mitt Romney on steroids”, and will have a formidable GOTV with Unions anchoring that orchestrated program.

    Throw in “who is going to handle same day registration” better, and who can truly, honestly, efficiently, ID their pluses, and vote every single ID’d pluses…that is who is going to win.

    Rauner up 6-10, but some slim hope for Quinn. Slim hope, and this decision reflects that.


  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Understating his negative standing, perhaps, was what was meant.


  6. - Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:10 pm:

    Sounds about. Turnout is going to be a bit unpredictable with the new registration rules, but Tilt-R is the feeling right now.


  7. - Very Fed Up - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:12 pm:

    The one thing Quinn will for sure not do is run on his record. Expect nonstop attacks on Bruce Rauners personal wealth.


  8. - Cassiopeia - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:16 pm:

    Bill Hyers, Quinn’s campaign strategist, just put out a fundraising email that says of Rauner”He avoided paying Illinois and federal taxes by stashing money in the Cayman Islands”

    I must have missed that part of the story but it looks like the Quinn strategy is to take a fact and then imagine the most negative “possible” charge to make.

    Desperation by Team Quinn.


  9. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:17 pm:

    These guys only cautiously confirm what guys watching Illinois politics already see happening.

    Nothing that has happened over the past month is a game changer for Quinn. Quinn needs more positive ads or he can’t gain from Rauner’s errors. His campaign is almost non-existent outside Cook County. I’ve heard from my connections that Durbin’s people have already prepared for a Governor Rauner, when at this stage in 2010, they thought he could beat Brady even though the polls said otherwise.

    Don’t expect any help for the Governor from Downstate in November. The Democrats are begging their base to even put up yard signs this time. Completely demotivated.

    Maybe the Fair this month will help. Quinn has to do something to turn this mood around.


  10. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:21 pm:

    Then comes October, which will cause Quinn to probably lose a lot of support he now has. He has to be ahead in the polls enough to lose that support during October and still remain in the race.

    Based on what I’ve heard so far - Rauner is going to have to be found doing something a whole lot worse than earning and spending millions of his own money to lose to Quinn between now and November.

    And no - painting Rauner as Romney isn’t going to hurt Rauner. It will only make him look as competent as former Governor Romney.


  11. - Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    Quinn better start listening to YDD or else he’s a goner.


  12. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    The other thing is, if I were the Quinnsters I would be holding fire a bit on some of this stuff, it’s early August and I am not the ‘he is really rich’ stuff isn’t going to become background noise by October.


  13. - A guy... - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:31 pm:

    A toe in the water today. Ankle deep next week. Swimming by October. A hope and a prayer on my part supported by some old fashioned shoe leather.


  14. - James Knell - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    It’s frightening that many people haven’t learned their Blago-Ryan lesson. When someone runs for governor, and they tell you they are going to cut taxes but they won’t tell you what they will cut, they are not being honest. Quinn is at least honest. Apparently, a lot of people still like to be lied to. Rauner will probably turn Illinois into a Wisconsin like political war zone. That’s not good for business or anyone accept for Oligarchs like Bruce Rauner. It’s a path better not taken.


  15. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:43 pm:

    Vanilla Man, I think Rauner’s tax plan was a game changer for me. I agree with you, however, that it has not yet been a game changer for a significant amount of others.

    I think his plan seems designed to slow the economy and add additional burdens on business.

    The real question though is how many voters will hear that same message, and of those that do, how many will chose to believe it.

    Right now, on paper Quinn seems to be better for business. When I look at the plans, I like Quinn’s better.

    But voters tend to think that the GOP is better for business, and even if Quinn gets that message out, I’m not sure it will connect.

    It changed the game for me, and it has the potential to change it for others. We will see if it actually happens.

    My hunch (and of course, the Gooner hunch is highly valued [snark]) is that the race does lean Rauner.

    On the other hand, I also think Rauner has been running a pretty bad campaign, so although has the inside track, this one is far from over.

    Rauner needs to stay vague until November. The more substance he tries to add, the worse he will do.

    He’s needs to learn that when you are winning, shut the heck up. The more you talk, the more votes you will lose.


  16. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    James Knell

    Well at least you didn’t use the phrase low information voter…

    Also I would be a little more impressed with Quinn’s honesty if he insisted on a real budget, since taxes are going to be cut and he didn’t bother on insisting on a budget that reflected that.


  17. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    –“Mitt Romney on steroids.”–

    “Ultimate insider who got rich on taxpayer-financed pay-to-play deals and Medicaid nursing home bustouts” is much better.

    Can the Quinn crew find some outside group to finance spots to hang Emanuel around Rauner’s neck (without coordination, of course, lol)?

    Emanuel and that hinky SBC deal (with Bill Daley, to boot) would be grist for the Chicago base and Undecideds.


  18. - Sue - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:59 pm:

    could someone please tell me what Quinn will do differently during another term which would improve upon Illinois’ financial and employment situation- Why would anyone other then the Union constituency want to see Quinn reelected?


  19. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    ==Why would anyone other then the Union constituency want to see Quinn reelected?==

    I’m not a “union constituency” and I’m not voting for Rauner at this point in time. I don’t vote for people simply because they aren’t the other guy. I have to be convinced that they are the right person for the job. Rauner hasn’t convinced me and it’s mostly because, from what I’ve seen, his fiscal plans will wreck the state more than it is now. If I have to choose between Quinn and Rauner right now I choose Quinn. Rauner still has a chance to convince me. He can do that by showing me he has the first clue about state finances. He better hurry up.


  20. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:08 pm:

    Sue,

    Unlike Rauner, Quinn will not attack demand by imposing an additional sales tax.

    A sales tax raises prices and creates an incentive for people not to buy goods/services.

    Those of us who make a living selling goods and services would prefer not to have demanded for products reduced by a plan like Rauner’s.

    Glad I can clear that up for you, Sue!

    By the way Sue, although Quinn has union endorsements, many are not too happy with him. You may want to do some reading on that topic.


  21. - low level - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    For one thing, I’d like the state govt not to shut down like the Fed Govt did last October, which would up costing billions of dollars and accomplished nothing. I also like candidates who I think can relate to me. Unless I win the lottery, I can’t relate to Bruce.


  22. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    Yup - he’s got that right.


  23. - WootBaseball - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:38 pm:

    Rothenberger is a nothingburger.

    (Btw, his last name is actually Rothenberg.)


  24. - Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:43 pm:

    ==Those of us who make a living selling goods and services would prefer not to have demanded for products reduced by a plan like Rauner’s.==

    The way I read the plan, the current sales tax rate would not increase. Certain services not currently taxed would se one implemented, mirroring most other States. What you conveniently leave out is the additional matter of the income tax be reduced. The end result would be a bottom line increase in disposable income for most people and businesses.


  25. - Buzzie - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Let’s not forget that even if Rauner wins there will still be a Democratic House and Senate; states like Wisconsin and Indiana had post-election Republican governors, houses and senates.


  26. - walker - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 4:46 pm:

    Rauner looks to be ahead right now. Very early, and a lot of driving variables could change. It is still mostly anti-incumbent, rather than pro-challenger.


  27. - Common Sense - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 6:36 pm:

    Take it to Bank. Governor Pat Quinn will be re-elected.


  28. - (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:03 pm:

    @VM 1:17
    I am from Southern IL. and have worked with or on many campaigns the last 30 years plus. Your assertion about “Durbin’s people” and about yard signs is completely inaccurate.


  29. - Jechislo - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:08 pm:

    This is definitely a pro-Quinn anti-Rauner site. I’m beginning to sense a desperation attitude by the Quinn folks.

    I’m gladly beginning to feel that Rauner is really ahead, and will stay ahead and will win this race.

    I’ll gladly say goodbye to Quinn.


  30. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:13 pm:

    J,
    I think Rauner does well when he does not have to undergo scrutiny.
    The more people hear from him, the less they like him.
    Given that this site closely follows Quinn and Rauner, it is sort of inevitable that there is a pro-Quinn bias from many.
    The “Quinn folks” to some degree are simply people who have spent time listening to Rauner. I know that is the case for me.


  31. - Quiet Sage - Wednesday, Aug 6, 14 @ 9:06 am:

    All other things being equal, I believe Quinn could pull this out. He’s a great underdog campaigner (see 2010) and Rauner’s got huge baggage and is threatening to many core constituencies. All other things being equal. But this is more than likely to be a huge Republican year. So Illinois either will stand as a political island in the middle of the nation (not impossible with our incredibly local-centric political culture) or Rauner will be swept in by the countrywide tide.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Last gubernatorial debate
* Sign of the times?
* A long, long way to go
* Statewide roundup
* Question of the day
* Last night's oddest moment
* So far, it's (an almost) complete news blackout
* Stand down, lefties
* Today's number: $379 million
* Local 150 spending "six figures" on Libertarian candidate
* More on McKinney
* Rauner, GOP matching Madigan's money in House races
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* Down, but not out
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* *** UPDATED x1 - Quinn campaign responds *** Rauner campaign responds to firestorm over Sun-Times reporter's sidelining
* New Quinn ad hits Rauner on nursing homes
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Sun-Times sidelined reporter after Rauner campaign intervention
* *** UPDATED x2 *** Quinn campaign responds to Sun-Times endorsement decision
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Apple might cut Beats Music subscription fees in half
        * Lumiartistic! How Toni Kasurinen takes his art to the next level
        * Microsoft may beat Apple with a smartwatch this year
        * Block Fortress: War launches on Android
        * LG teases a new phone with… googly eyes?
        * Top 5 widgets for your iPhone and iPad (Video)
        * Why Apple Pay could even be a big deal for Android users

        * McDonald’s Expresses Their Confidence In Apple Pay
        * Google Launches Guide On How To Switch From iOS To Android
        * iPhone 6 Demand “Far Outstripping” Its Supply
        * Look Who Else Is Joining Google to Back Magic Leap, the Secret “Augmented Reality” Startup
        * Learn About Music Theory with This Easy to Understand Online Book
        * Cluster management startup StackIQ brings in $6M
        * Meet a water heater with Wi-Fi and a little bit of AI

        * larry's Offseason Plan
        * Jose Abreau wins the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year
        * Jose Abreu wins the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year
        * Lost in Isolation: A White Sox fan abroad.
        * Pnoles' 2014 White Sox offseason plan
        * Former White Sox star Rowand excited for 'little' cousin Shields
        * The South Side Sox 2014-15 White Sox offseason plan project


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Does Pat Quinn Have a Personal Life? - Chicagom.....
        * Quinn, Rauner square off for final governor debate..
        * Lombard receives $500,000 for Vista Pond expansion..


        * Police: Indiana suspect hints at more killings
        * EPA awards $8.6 million to reduce Lake Erie algae
        * Suspected Indiana serial killer charged in 1 death
        * Judge to rule against Ameren in power line case
        * Voters head to polls on first day of early voting
        * Voters cast early ballots in Illinois
        * School's PTA president accused of stealing funds
        * Truman State student killed by vehicle identified
        * Obama casts his vote early in Chicago
        * Mayor says suspect in 7 deaths is sex offender

        * Election 2014: Learn about all the candidates
        * What to watch for in third governor debate tonight
        * U of I sees turning point as election nears
        * Chicago Sun-Times endorses Rauner for governor
        * Sun-Times, Belleville, Champaign, Peoria newspapers endorse Rauner for governor
        * Bill Clinton to address workers at pro-Quinn rally
        * Body camera use concerns Illinois police officers
        * Illinois unemployment rate falls again, to 6.6 percent
        * Panel to look at body cameras in eavesdropping law discussion
        * Phil Luciano: Company paying surrounding counties to support Logan Co. marijuana growing center

        * It's official: AbbVie and Shire end merger talks
        * Northwestern, U of C among four hospitals that would treat Ebola patients
        * Bloomberg weighs in for Dold
        * U.S. airlines raise base fares on domestic flights
        * Court rejects appeal from Duane Reade Ex-CEO, CFO


        * Convicted sex offender in custody after 7 bodies found in NW Indiana
        * Scholar’s take on bishops’ synod: ‘Amazing days if you’re a Catholic’
        * Dr. Lawrence Solomon: Renowned dermatologist, book collector loved a mystery
        * Time to get ahead of Ebola
        * $500K bail for woman charged with fatally stabbing boyfriend
        * In Denver, ‘budtenders’ sell legal pot to clients
        * Obama asks Dems at South Side rally to vote for Gov. Quinn
        * Editorial: Bruce Rauner for governor
        * Sneed: City Treasurer Stephanie Neely is pulling the plug on her job
        * Editorial: Why we are back in the endorsement business


        * Doctor killed in Naperville crash
        * Chicago blows through police OT budget by $23 million
        * Murder charges filed against suspect in deaths of 7 women in Gary, Hammond
        * Ex-cop gets 3 years for breaking 89-year-old's hip
        * Chicago man dead, 2 others charged in Indianapolis robbery
        * George: Sorry if tone of gay-marriage stance hurt
        * Man gets 122 years in murder of ex-girlfriend, 15
        * Wilmette police arrest 6 men in cannabis case
        * Chicago to see partial solar eclipse Thursday
        * Emanuel looking at former Preckwinkle chief of staff for city treasurer job


        * Scary Story: Hand In Glove By Shawna Mayer
        * Task Force Hopes To Help Turn Students Into Good Citizens
        * Digging up the history of a Civil War camp on Chicago's South Side
        * Indiana suspect hints at more killings
        * Illinois' Medical Marijuana Program At Odds With Federal Policy
        * UIS Poverty Series Continues With "American Winter" Screening
        * Third & Final Governor Debate Tonight
        * Politicians On Parade
        * Are Computer Keyboards Killing Cursive?
        * Earlier Than Ever


        * Election 2014: Learn about all the candidates
        * What to watch for in third governor debate tonight
        * U of I sees turning point as election nears
        * Our Opinion: Re-elect Durbin for another term in U.S. Senate
        * Bill Press: Do you trust your government on Ebola?
        * Quote of the Day: Monday, Oct. 20, 2014
        * Our Opinion: Rodney Davis has earned another term
        * Bernard Schoenburg: CWLP’S Burns considers run for city treasurer
        * Rep. Mike Smiddy: Improving care for those fighting breast cancer
        * Deckle McLean: Party imbalance falls along urban, rural lines


        * Iowa provost offers snapshot of Iowa's wind generation
        * Upcoming Services (October 21, 2014)
        * News-Gazette SportsPage 10-20-14
        * Selected photos from Jacksonville vs. Glenwood soccer
        * Trees cleared to show 1856 rail berm
        * No injuries, 13 arrests after weekend party bus crash
        * Shimkus, Bost discuss coal
        * Find your candidates here
        * Clerk challenger makes accusations about bid-rigging scheme
        * Kim kicks off Southern Illinois Symphony Orchestra season tonight


        * Wonder Lake man ID'd in Bull Valley crash
        * Crime prevention seminar:
        * Warren High playing sled hockey team:
        * Safety fair in North Chicago:
        * Family fun, wellness night:

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * U S Senate Committee on Judiciary : Feinst......
        * Topic matches for "political fundraising"...
        * Topic matches for "political fundraising"...
        * Topic matches for "political fundraising"...
        * Topic matches for "political fundraising"...

        * Dear Editor,...

        * We’re grayer.
        * Glen Brown. Colorado Supreme Court rules against pension rights. It’s not Illinois.
        * Robling: Time to Defeat Dick Durbin
        * Police Admit to Roving Gangs Randomly Beating People in Champaign Urbana
        * Cook County Voting Machine Miscasts Candidate's Vote
        * Medicaid Expansion Increases ER Visits
        * Morning Minute: Tips to make your home more energy efficient this fall
        * Ted Cruz To Headline Chicago Fundraiser For 43rd Ward Republicans
        * Waukegan Teachers Strike Enters 10th Day
        * Quinn, Rauner To Debate Tonight In Chicago


        * What They’re Saying About Pat Quinn
        * What They’re Saying About Bruce Rauner
        * Illinois EPA Registration of Smaller Sources Program Hits Program Landmark - 3,000 Illinois Small Businesses Benefit from Permit Streamlining
        * Rauner Sweeping Endorsements Across Illinois
        * Belleville News-Democrat Endorses Rauner




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller