SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Rothenberg tips race slightly to Rauner

Tuesday, Aug 5, 2014

* From Stu Rothenberger’s outfit

Democrats’ best strategy appears to be to turn GOP nominee Bruce Rauner, a wealthy businessman, into “Mitt Romney on steroids.” It could work, but to call this race a tossup right now would be understating Quinn’s standing in the race.

We’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican, giving the GOP a narrow advantage to capture the state in November.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Again, Bias I say sir, Bias…

    Good day sir…

  2. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Apparently this written before Flip’s call for doing a PATCO on teachers, cops and firemen. Perhaps a folo up call should be done.

  3. - Peoria guy - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    Wouldn’t it be “overstating” not “understating” Quinn’s standing in the race?

  4. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Bruce Rauner is up 6-10 points right now.

    Rauner has the money to frame Quinn with Quinn’s baggage as damaging as it is, and October is not going to be better with Quinn, with the US Attorney possibly moving on an ongoing federal investigation, and commission hearings on parallel tracks rolling up to Election Day.

    All that is true.

    Gotta finish.

    Quinn is going to try the “Mitt Romney on steroids”, and will have a formidable GOTV with Unions anchoring that orchestrated program.

    Throw in “who is going to handle same day registration” better, and who can truly, honestly, efficiently, ID their pluses, and vote every single ID’d pluses…that is who is going to win.

    Rauner up 6-10, but some slim hope for Quinn. Slim hope, and this decision reflects that.

  5. - Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    Understating his negative standing, perhaps, was what was meant.

  6. - Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:10 pm:

    Sounds about. Turnout is going to be a bit unpredictable with the new registration rules, but Tilt-R is the feeling right now.

  7. - Very Fed Up - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:12 pm:

    The one thing Quinn will for sure not do is run on his record. Expect nonstop attacks on Bruce Rauners personal wealth.

  8. - Cassiopeia - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:16 pm:

    Bill Hyers, Quinn’s campaign strategist, just put out a fundraising email that says of Rauner”He avoided paying Illinois and federal taxes by stashing money in the Cayman Islands”

    I must have missed that part of the story but it looks like the Quinn strategy is to take a fact and then imagine the most negative “possible” charge to make.

    Desperation by Team Quinn.

  9. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:17 pm:

    These guys only cautiously confirm what guys watching Illinois politics already see happening.

    Nothing that has happened over the past month is a game changer for Quinn. Quinn needs more positive ads or he can’t gain from Rauner’s errors. His campaign is almost non-existent outside Cook County. I’ve heard from my connections that Durbin’s people have already prepared for a Governor Rauner, when at this stage in 2010, they thought he could beat Brady even though the polls said otherwise.

    Don’t expect any help for the Governor from Downstate in November. The Democrats are begging their base to even put up yard signs this time. Completely demotivated.

    Maybe the Fair this month will help. Quinn has to do something to turn this mood around.

  10. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:21 pm:

    Then comes October, which will cause Quinn to probably lose a lot of support he now has. He has to be ahead in the polls enough to lose that support during October and still remain in the race.

    Based on what I’ve heard so far - Rauner is going to have to be found doing something a whole lot worse than earning and spending millions of his own money to lose to Quinn between now and November.

    And no - painting Rauner as Romney isn’t going to hurt Rauner. It will only make him look as competent as former Governor Romney.

  11. - Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    Quinn better start listening to YDD or else he’s a goner.

  12. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    The other thing is, if I were the Quinnsters I would be holding fire a bit on some of this stuff, it’s early August and I am not the ‘he is really rich’ stuff isn’t going to become background noise by October.

  13. - A guy... - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:31 pm:

    A toe in the water today. Ankle deep next week. Swimming by October. A hope and a prayer on my part supported by some old fashioned shoe leather.

  14. - James Knell - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    It’s frightening that many people haven’t learned their Blago-Ryan lesson. When someone runs for governor, and they tell you they are going to cut taxes but they won’t tell you what they will cut, they are not being honest. Quinn is at least honest. Apparently, a lot of people still like to be lied to. Rauner will probably turn Illinois into a Wisconsin like political war zone. That’s not good for business or anyone accept for Oligarchs like Bruce Rauner. It’s a path better not taken.

  15. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:43 pm:

    Vanilla Man, I think Rauner’s tax plan was a game changer for me. I agree with you, however, that it has not yet been a game changer for a significant amount of others.

    I think his plan seems designed to slow the economy and add additional burdens on business.

    The real question though is how many voters will hear that same message, and of those that do, how many will chose to believe it.

    Right now, on paper Quinn seems to be better for business. When I look at the plans, I like Quinn’s better.

    But voters tend to think that the GOP is better for business, and even if Quinn gets that message out, I’m not sure it will connect.

    It changed the game for me, and it has the potential to change it for others. We will see if it actually happens.

    My hunch (and of course, the Gooner hunch is highly valued [snark]) is that the race does lean Rauner.

    On the other hand, I also think Rauner has been running a pretty bad campaign, so although has the inside track, this one is far from over.

    Rauner needs to stay vague until November. The more substance he tries to add, the worse he will do.

    He’s needs to learn that when you are winning, shut the heck up. The more you talk, the more votes you will lose.

  16. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    James Knell

    Well at least you didn’t use the phrase low information voter…

    Also I would be a little more impressed with Quinn’s honesty if he insisted on a real budget, since taxes are going to be cut and he didn’t bother on insisting on a budget that reflected that.

  17. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    –“Mitt Romney on steroids.”–

    “Ultimate insider who got rich on taxpayer-financed pay-to-play deals and Medicaid nursing home bustouts” is much better.

    Can the Quinn crew find some outside group to finance spots to hang Emanuel around Rauner’s neck (without coordination, of course, lol)?

    Emanuel and that hinky SBC deal (with Bill Daley, to boot) would be grist for the Chicago base and Undecideds.

  18. - Sue - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 1:59 pm:

    could someone please tell me what Quinn will do differently during another term which would improve upon Illinois’ financial and employment situation- Why would anyone other then the Union constituency want to see Quinn reelected?

  19. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    ==Why would anyone other then the Union constituency want to see Quinn reelected?==

    I’m not a “union constituency” and I’m not voting for Rauner at this point in time. I don’t vote for people simply because they aren’t the other guy. I have to be convinced that they are the right person for the job. Rauner hasn’t convinced me and it’s mostly because, from what I’ve seen, his fiscal plans will wreck the state more than it is now. If I have to choose between Quinn and Rauner right now I choose Quinn. Rauner still has a chance to convince me. He can do that by showing me he has the first clue about state finances. He better hurry up.

  20. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:08 pm:


    Unlike Rauner, Quinn will not attack demand by imposing an additional sales tax.

    A sales tax raises prices and creates an incentive for people not to buy goods/services.

    Those of us who make a living selling goods and services would prefer not to have demanded for products reduced by a plan like Rauner’s.

    Glad I can clear that up for you, Sue!

    By the way Sue, although Quinn has union endorsements, many are not too happy with him. You may want to do some reading on that topic.

  21. - low level - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    For one thing, I’d like the state govt not to shut down like the Fed Govt did last October, which would up costing billions of dollars and accomplished nothing. I also like candidates who I think can relate to me. Unless I win the lottery, I can’t relate to Bruce.

  22. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:23 pm:

    Yup - he’s got that right.

  23. - WootBaseball - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:38 pm:

    Rothenberger is a nothingburger.

    (Btw, his last name is actually Rothenberg.)

  24. - Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:43 pm:

    ==Those of us who make a living selling goods and services would prefer not to have demanded for products reduced by a plan like Rauner’s.==

    The way I read the plan, the current sales tax rate would not increase. Certain services not currently taxed would se one implemented, mirroring most other States. What you conveniently leave out is the additional matter of the income tax be reduced. The end result would be a bottom line increase in disposable income for most people and businesses.

  25. - Buzzie - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Let’s not forget that even if Rauner wins there will still be a Democratic House and Senate; states like Wisconsin and Indiana had post-election Republican governors, houses and senates.

  26. - walker - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 4:46 pm:

    Rauner looks to be ahead right now. Very early, and a lot of driving variables could change. It is still mostly anti-incumbent, rather than pro-challenger.

  27. - Common Sense - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 6:36 pm:

    Take it to Bank. Governor Pat Quinn will be re-elected.

  28. - (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:03 pm:

    @VM 1:17
    I am from Southern IL. and have worked with or on many campaigns the last 30 years plus. Your assertion about “Durbin’s people” and about yard signs is completely inaccurate.

  29. - Jechislo - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:08 pm:

    This is definitely a pro-Quinn anti-Rauner site. I’m beginning to sense a desperation attitude by the Quinn folks.

    I’m gladly beginning to feel that Rauner is really ahead, and will stay ahead and will win this race.

    I’ll gladly say goodbye to Quinn.

  30. - Gooner - Tuesday, Aug 5, 14 @ 8:13 pm:

    I think Rauner does well when he does not have to undergo scrutiny.
    The more people hear from him, the less they like him.
    Given that this site closely follows Quinn and Rauner, it is sort of inevitable that there is a pro-Quinn bias from many.
    The “Quinn folks” to some degree are simply people who have spent time listening to Rauner. I know that is the case for me.

  31. - Quiet Sage - Wednesday, Aug 6, 14 @ 9:06 am:

    All other things being equal, I believe Quinn could pull this out. He’s a great underdog campaigner (see 2010) and Rauner’s got huge baggage and is threatening to many core constituencies. All other things being equal. But this is more than likely to be a huge Republican year. So Illinois either will stand as a political island in the middle of the nation (not impossible with our incredibly local-centric political culture) or Rauner will be swept in by the countrywide tide.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Dold demanded DCCC ad linking him to Trump be taken off the air
* Rauner handing out bonuses to non-union employees
* Miles away and worlds apart
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Everybody wants to get into the act
* The opposite of slick
* The Trib's closing argument: It's all about Madigan
* The expectations game
* Did Rauner kick a big can?
* More unintended consequences?
* From 23 down to 0
* Hey, Cub fans!
* An amateur nails it
* It can always get worse
* Republicans dispute Trib numbers, say Madigan doing better than realized
* Trump not cooperating with Rauner's best laid plans
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* This just in... $12 million contribution to Leader Durkin, $2 million to Munger
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...






Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Xiaomi Mi VR headset looks familiar, costs a lot less than its Western rivals
* Xiaomi Mi MIX ‘concept phone’ with edgeless design is real, coming soon at $515 and up
* Xiaomi Mi Note 2 comes out with dual curved design, 6GB RAM, global LTE support
* Google Pixel Unboxing: A lot of hype, a lot of box
* Samsung Galaxy S8 delays due to Note 7, Google Pixel story & more – Pocketnow Daily
* Google Pixel water resistance tested for an hour
* Google Maps Adds Food Delivery Support in New Update

* White Sox developing promising OF prospects
* Podcast: 2016 White Sox Outfield Review
* mikecws91's Offseason Plan
* The ten best developments of the 2016 White Sox season
* KenWo4LiFe's off-season plan
* Getz to oversee White Sox Minor Leagues
* Getz to oversee White Sox Minor Leagues


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....

* EXCHANGE: Eagle Scout establishes new campsite
* Cleveland's Ontario Street center of sports world Tuesday
* Protesters set up camp in project's path for the 1st time
* Recording '59 JFK speech to be played in Illinois theater
* Recording '59 JFK speech to be played in Illinois theater
* Want to see World Series at Wrigley? It will cost thousands
* Want to see World Series at Wrigley? It will cost thousands
* Authorities: Skydiver dies after hitting sign in Illinois
* Sentencing date set for ex-Chicago schools superintendent
* Excerpts from recent editorials in newspapers in Illinois.

* Feds end lease with Illinois for state park, citing neglect
* Statehouse Insider: Tomorrow's a new day; in Illinois, that may not be good
* Cook County lawyer who posed as judge criminally charged
* 1,100 non-union state workers getting $3,016 bonuses
* Springfield veteran honored for volunteer work
* Central Illinois soldier killed in Afghanistan
* Rauner administration awarding more than $3 million in bonuses to non-union workers
* SIU injury-prevention program reinstated through stopgap budget
* Survey: 386 state jobs could relocate to Springfield
* SIU injury-prevention program reinstated through state's stopgap spending plan

* Lions and Cubs and angry aldermen, oh my
* Emanuel taps United exec as new McPier chairman
* Ready for sticker shock? Obamacare prices revealed
* Banks challenge Venmo with new payments network
* Cubs give city a star turn. Don't blow it, Chicago.

* Man shot in Marquette Park
* Man wounded in West Englewood shooting
* Obama helping Democrats in close Senate, House races
* Dear Abby: Should I report a baby with bruises?
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Oct. 25, 2016
* Cubs, Indians ride home runs more in playoffs
* Fantasy Fools: Nothing goes as expected — as usual
* Obama reads mean tweets on Jimmy Kimmel show
* Doctor listings often wrong in Medicare advantage directory
* High lead found in 24 percent of Chicago Park District fountains

* Trump can't just be defeated. He must be humiliated.
* 16-year-old killed, 10 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Cubs in World Series: The first 10
* Cubs' Mike Montgomery reunited with high school teammate/rival Trevor Bauer
* Malaysia's Najib chases 'ultimate' win as supporters get budget goodies
* Authorities: No sign of braking by bus driver in Calif. bus crash that left 13 dead, 31 injured
* Authorities: Skydiver dies after hitting sign in LaSalle County
* Man charged in fatal West Woodlawn stabbing
* Elizabeth Warren to Donald Trump: 'Nasty women vote'
* Kyle Schwarber appears likely to be included on Cubs' World Series roster

The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.

* Our Opinion: Endorsing Bourne, DelGiorno for the Illinois House
* Kathleen Parker: You can dress him up, but Trump is Trump
* Our Opinion: Leslie Munger endorsed for Illinois comptroller
* Feds end lease with Illinois for state park, citing neglect
* Our Opinion: With poor choices, Clinton gets nod for president
* Statehouse Insider: Tomorrow's a new day; in Illinois, that may not be good
* Bernard Schoenburg: DelGiorno apologizes for backer's vulgar Facebook post
* Cooler temperatures lead to greater needs
* Women for Women tops half million mark
* Cook County lawyer who posed as judge criminally charged

* Safety derailed: Benton’s train problem
* Local parties hit home stretch before Election Day
* 'Halloween Hike' event set for Friday at Lincoln Log Cabin
* Martinsville man injured in motorcycle-bus accident
* Ronald Lynn Huckleberry
* Marion Bradford 'Brad' Owen
* Dorothy Jean Woolard
* Scott James Clover
* Shelby Sims
* Ruth Shoot

* 'Pitch Perfect' vocal producer leads class at Jackson Creek
* Buddhist Pho Minh Temple opens in Anderson
* Militants carry out series of attacks in past 3 years
* Somali extremists kill 12 non-Muslims in northern Kenya
* Obama mixes talk of 'mean tweets,' politics on Jimmy Kimmel

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Cubs-Indians World Series tickets could cr......
* Ohio, Illinois politicians make friendly w......

* Race between Duckworth, Kirk key to determ......

* Illinois REALTORS® urge voters to reelect Sen. Rezin
* Morning Minute: First-time buyers help push U.S. home sales higher in September
* Vote for Sen. Forby says Illinois REALTORS®
* CFPB power among topics that attract exceptional webinar attention
* Schimpf receives IE support from Illinois REALTORS®
* Illinois REALTORS® give Rep. McAuliffe IE support
* Helping Lake County immigrant families gives local REALTOR® joy
* Morning Minute: Get your house ready now for the winter months
* Illinois REALTORS®: Vote Reick for Illinois House District 63
* 24 candidates who deserve REALTOR® support in general elections

* Governor’s Children’s Cabinet Makes Lead Poisoning Prevention A Priority - October 23-30, 2016 - National Lead Poisoning Prevention Week
* Illinois EPA Sponsors Interactive Environmental Education Event with Riverton Elementary School - Riverton Third and Fourth Graders “Dive In!” to Celebrate the Environment
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Honors Veteran Mr. George Pempek
* Illinois Partners with State of Telangana, India to Strengthen Smart State Initiatives - State to state agreement to accelerate opportunities and service to citizens
* Illinois EPA Announces Vehicle Emissions Testing Network Updates - New Contract to Offer More Efficient, Less Expensive Tests

      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller