LIVE session coverage...
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Polling average: Rauner 7-8 points ahead

Monday, Aug 11, 2014

* Another day, another poll

According to a survey by Gravis Marketing for Human Events magazine, Mr. Rauner leads Mr. Quinn by 8 points among likely election voters, with 48 percent for the Republican challenger and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent. A considerable 12 percent of voters are reported as undecided, many of them Democrats.

Both men improved their standing slightly from the last Gravis survey in April, when the numbers were 43 percent to 35 percent.

The survey, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, includes only a portion of Mr. Quinn’s recent Cayman Islands/Rauner’s rich assault. But if Mr. Quinn is drawing only 31 percent of the independent vote, he’s going to have a problem in the Nov. 4 election.

From the pollster

The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.

Hmm.

* Huffpo included the survey in its polling chart

Real Clear Politics has not yet plugged in this new survey. RCP’s average is a seven-point led for Rauner, which is only a point away from HuffPo’s.

* Meanwhile

Back to Gravis, which showed Mr. Durbin with a rather narrow 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Mr. Oberweis, with 14 percent undecided. If true, it’s not a very impressive lead.

Mr.Durbin’s campaign had no immediate response to the poll. But he has been furiously campaigning of late, a sign that he’s a smart politician, or that he’s a tad concerned, or perhaps a bit of both.

For those Democrats who think Winter Springs, Fla.-based Gravis might have stacked the deck, the poll found President Barack Obama with an only slightly negative job performance rating, 48 percent negative to 45 percent positive, which is far better than his national figure and a sign that the president from Chicago retains considerable home-state loyalty.

The HuffPo average in this race is Durbin +11.75.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


11 Comments
  1. - Will Caskey - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    LOL.

    Gravis on PA 2012 http://www.politicspa.com/gravis-poll-obama-48-romney-45/43007/

    Gravis on OH 2012 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

    Etc etc. Gravis’ fan base overlaps with the Unskewed movement pretty heavily.


  2. - VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Look at that graph.
    This is a blue state. Quinn is sitting on the floor. He hasn’t budged in nine months of polling against Rauner.

    Quinn’s problem isn’t Rauner. Quinn’s problem is that he hasn’t given voters a reason to vote for him again. Quinn is losing to Rauner because Quinn isn’t selling Quinn. We see Rauner selling Rauner and we see voters buying.

    But then, Rauner is the only candidate that is selling himself to voters, right?

    If this was a foot race, Quinn would still be lacing up his shoes at the starting line and telling us Rauner is wearing expensive shoes.


  3. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Sounds about right. It appears that there will be no “coattails” from either Quinn or Durbin for each other or the Congressional races this year.

    The most likely voters in Illinois to be motivated for November seem to be those on the state payroll, public union members, and really fed up Republicans who are sick of the way things are going in Springfield.

    That may negate “soft” Dem voter numerical advantages in Illinjois.

    I really don’t hear Durbin getting much love from Dems to whom I’ve spoken, but, if they vote, they’ll vote for him. There seems to be general contempt even amongst Dems for Harry Reid, so there doesn’t seem to be all that much interest in keeping the Dems in control of the Senate. Obama seems to be always whining about nothing getting done in Congress even with control of the Senate, so why get hot and bothered about maintaing control for Harry Reid if it’s not doing any good anyway?

    Oberweis seems to be “phoning it in” so I really can’t see him winning unless there’s a complete Dem collapse, but I don’t see Madigan letting that happen. If only he had an Irish surname….


  4. - plutocrat03 - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    DD can keep his campaign money in the bank.

    A double digit lead over a candidate the has lost a number of previous statewide races is unlikely to be lost.


  5. - dupage dan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    Rauner ain’t to the magic 50% number yet. Still room for both to grow. Quinn will not give up. He’s the 4th Qtr comeback king, just ask Brady. Rauner would be a fool to think he has this sewn up.

    So would Durbin. Oberweis has lost a lot of races but he has been honing his craft and doesn’t sound nearly as loopy as he did in years past. Still a long shot for him but this is a down year for dems nationally. Who knows about Illinois?


  6. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    The poll average seems about right. It’s poll aggregation that gives us the best insight, though certainly other factors are important, such as turnout.

    Who will inspire voters to turn out in the highest numbers? Rauner is opening campaign offices, and Quinn has the unions behind him.

    There are still three months to go before the election. There is plenty of time for undecideds to make up their minds.

    “Gravis on OH 2012″

    I remember those polling results from Gravis in the 2012 Presidential Election. Some of them were being released, favoring Romney, when other polls showed Obama consistently leading. I’m not sure how Gravis did overall, but I remember commenters on other blogs mentioning the firm’s strange outlier polls.


  7. - Hey There - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    For the Democrats this election will all be about base turnout; not persuasion. An exception is PQ who apparently still needs to persuade his base to at least be motivated enough–and scared enough of Rauner–to show up, hold their noses and vote for PQ.
    Unlike some past elections, the Democrats won’t spend any time or money trying to persuade those pesky and unreliable Independents. In fact, the fewer Indys who vote this cycle the better off Democratic candidates will be up and down the ballot.
    The persuasion game seems to be the burden of Rauner this year. Rauner needs to persuade the Indys–and perhaps some Ds– that he’s not an extremist on social and other issues and that PQ is a disaster and a redux of Blago. Rauner might also have to persuade some hard core right elements of the GOP downstate that they should vote for him despite his views on social issues.


  8. - TRUTH BE TOLD - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Does Gravas own the Gravas Marketing Poll? Do they get a number of their respondants from their web site?


  9. - Snucka - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:15 pm:

    This election will be decided in the suburbs. I would love to see a really good poll just focused there. Quinn got almost 60% in 2010 and polls are currently showing almost a complete reversal. If Quinn can even get it to 50-50, he will have a chance to win if turnout is good in Chicago. If Rauner wins the suburbs by more than 2 points or so, it is over.

    Team Z and company better get to work.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:52 pm:

    To the Post,

    I am guessing it was at 6-10 points for Rauner, figuring where all polls are, so I am not shocked, or feel one way or theories about the numbers.

    Rauner’s negatives need to skyrocket.

    Positives are not going to bring this back for Quinn.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 12, 14 @ 7:26 am:

    All is not lost for the Quinn campaign, but it seems like the one thing that has been missing since Day One at Quinn HQ is a sense of urgency.

    Remember Bush in 1992?

    No incumbent campaign ever wants to admit they are a few points down, but who can honestly expect Quinn to confront the budget and economic realities facing the people of Illinois if he cannot honestly confront the reality facing his campaign?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Cullerton says he offered "practical way forward"
* Republican legislators want Rauner, AFSCME to restart talks
* Two non-scandals and a potentially serious one
* Rauner budget director to brief reporters at noon
* Rauner expected to veto police and fire pension bill on Memorial Day
* "I have zero confidence that Springfield will get its act together"
* *** UPDATED x2 - Rauner audio *** Rauner to comment on collapse of negotiations
* Unclear on the history
* *** UPDATED x2 - Madigan: "No hostage-taking" - Talks collapse as Dems pull the plug *** Madigan likely to speak after leaders meeting
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* *** LIVE *** Session Coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Samsung’s S Health is now keeping score with your friends
* Google says VR fans should hold their upgrade till the Fall
* NIH: cellphone cancer risk small, irradiated rats lived longer
* Google app for iOS gets support for AMP and keyboard shortcuts
* iPhone SE vs Nexus 5X video comparison: The $400 Challenge!
* Skype 7.0 update expands material design to better support tablets
* Note 7, Pebble Smashes, OnePlus 3 Leaked, and ZTE Axon 7 | Pocketnow Weekly 202

* White Sox face Moustakas-less Royals, this weekend and beyond
* Anderson among top prospect performers Thursday
* Despite struggles, White Sox upbeat, supportive
* White Sox opener vs. Royals postponed
* Weather postpones White Sox-Royals game
* The White Sox use up their cushion, so now what?
* Indians 4, White Sox 3: Fitting end to homestand

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Also lost in the Illinois budget wars: Exoneree.....
* Rauner: 'Let's Get Reforms, Let's Get a Truly B.....
* Republicans say Dem leaders have 'pulled the pl.....
* Rauner, Madigan point fingers of blame as lawma.....
* Clash between Madigan, Rauner puts budget compr.....
* Illinois budget negotiations appear to be going.....
* Rauner expected to veto police and fire pension.....
* Rauner, legislative leaders to meet - Crain's C.....
* Republicans: Democrats have 'pulled the plug' o.....


* IDOT to halt road work in many areas during holiday weekend
* Rauner, Democrats keep fighting over budget as time runs out
* GOP targets Democrats who voted 'yes' on Illinois budget
* Amazon to open 2nd center in Joliet bringing 2,000 jobs
* Ex-Winnebago County director charged with embezzlement
* Autopsy finds man found dead after shootout killed himself
* Fourth person arrested in girl's shooting at family gathering
* Illinois House Democrats defy governor, push own budget
* House fails to override Rauner's veto of arbitration bill
* Illinois House speaker writing own budget, defying governor

* Republicans: Democrats have 'pulled the plug' on turnaround agenda talks
* Rauner, Illinois legislative leaders to meet Friday
* IDOT devoting $15M to roads and bridges in Sangamon County
* State budget battle rages on as clock ticks down
* First bird testing positive for West Nile in 2016 found in east-central Illinois
* Rauner, Democrats keep fighting over budget as time runs out
* Ray LaHood at prayer breakfast: Virtues of ordinary people make country great
* Chicago Schools CEO to lead Statehouse rally over funding
* Chicago Schools CEO leads Statehouse rally over education funding
* House Democrats defy governor, pass own budget; Rauner administration vows veto

* Chicago's airport security lines appear to speed up
* Runner dies during J.P. Morgan Corporate Challenge
* Lawyer group forms for craft brewers
* Accounting firm upends promotion system
* Ulta Salon soars after beauty chain boosts annual forecast


* Republicans say Dem leaders have ‘pulled the plug’ on budget
* Musician, West Side activist Boyse Edwards dead at 64
* City to release 100 videos of cop shootings and more next week
* At end of day, Sanders’ fans crazy not to work for Clinton
* Police: Suspect in Elmhurst bank robbery fatally shot himself
* Theo Ubique’s 2016-2017 season a mix of new works and classics
* Rizzo out of Cubs’ lineup for series opener against Phillies
* Girl, 7, dies after being hit by Sts. and San.-leased truck
* Surprise of big flathead: Fish of the Week
* Person shot to death in Washington Park


* Parents call for removal of plaques honoring former Lincoln-Way superintendent
* Documentary explains how Lake Michigan became an aircraft graveyard during World War II
* Drew Peterson defense rests after inmates testify that informant is untruthful
* Cubs rest struggling Anthony Rizzo today, first time this season
* Chicagoans describe what it's like to be cut from 'The Bachelorette'
* Stop bashing Marco Rubio for supporting Donald Trump
* After shake-up, TSA wait times in Chicago drop to less than 10 minutes: city
* Rauner, Madigan point fingers of blame as lawmakers prepare to head home for a day
* Girl, 7, dies after hit by tractor while crossing street with mom
* Experts ask WHO to consider moving Rio Olympics


* Republicans: Democrats have 'pulled the plug' on turnaround agenda talks
* Rauner, Illinois legislative leaders to meet Friday
* IDOT devoting $15M to roads and bridges in Sangamon County
* State budget battle rages on as clock ticks down
* Our View: Stubbornness, drama impede any progress at Statehouse
* First bird testing positive for West Nile in 2016 found in east-central Illinois
* Rauner, Democrats keep fighting over budget as time runs out
* Ray LaHood at prayer breakfast: Virtues of ordinary people make country great
* Chicago Schools CEO to lead Statehouse rally over funding
* Chicago Schools CEO leads Statehouse rally over education funding


* Dick Van Dyke returning to Danville
* Gale pleads in Champaign County cases
* Street closures listing
* Third body in Danville case identified
* Activist sues over denied deferred deportation renewal
* Rauner, Illinois legislative leaders to meet Friday
* Judge OKs copyright settlement over Vivian Maier photos
* 96-year-old Heimlich uses namesake maneuver on choking woman
* Archaeologist: Boston shipwreck is rare, remarkable find
* Origins of key Clinton emails from report are a mystery


* Metra adding afternoon trains today
* Chicago Shakespeare's bold, bracing 'Foreign Fire' testifies to war's inevitability
* District 211 already complies with new disciplinary law
* Clash between Madigan, Rauner puts budget compromise in doubt
* Kane County Cougars a baseball 'Force' for Geneva and beyond

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* TSA changes announced to decrease travel t......
* Rep. Tammy Duckworth Working with Senator ......

* Mark Kirk offers amendment to defense bill......
* US Senate to vote to bolster defence ties ......

* Bill making it easier for non-citizens to run for student trustee goes to Governor
* Madigan: "It happened because I said so."
* Rauner BFF.
* Four IL GOP U.S. House members support banning "sexual orientation" discrimination
* UPDATE x2: Four IL GOP U.S. House members support banning "sexual orientation" discrimination
* Teachers (Ted Sizer).
* University of Illinois, SEIU push financially-strapped Illinois to provide state aid for non-citizen students
* Berg: Madigan's Rules -- How One Man Controls Illinois
* Independent Map Amendment Passes Petition Test at Board of Elections
* U.S. Senate Republicans point to Kirk win as evidence GOP will retain majority


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller