SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Polling average: Rauner 7-8 points ahead

Monday, Aug 11, 2014

* Another day, another poll

According to a survey by Gravis Marketing for Human Events magazine, Mr. Rauner leads Mr. Quinn by 8 points among likely election voters, with 48 percent for the Republican challenger and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent. A considerable 12 percent of voters are reported as undecided, many of them Democrats.

Both men improved their standing slightly from the last Gravis survey in April, when the numbers were 43 percent to 35 percent.

The survey, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, includes only a portion of Mr. Quinn’s recent Cayman Islands/Rauner’s rich assault. But if Mr. Quinn is drawing only 31 percent of the independent vote, he’s going to have a problem in the Nov. 4 election.

From the pollster

The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.

Hmm.

* Huffpo included the survey in its polling chart

Real Clear Politics has not yet plugged in this new survey. RCP’s average is a seven-point led for Rauner, which is only a point away from HuffPo’s.

* Meanwhile

Back to Gravis, which showed Mr. Durbin with a rather narrow 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Mr. Oberweis, with 14 percent undecided. If true, it’s not a very impressive lead.

Mr.Durbin’s campaign had no immediate response to the poll. But he has been furiously campaigning of late, a sign that he’s a smart politician, or that he’s a tad concerned, or perhaps a bit of both.

For those Democrats who think Winter Springs, Fla.-based Gravis might have stacked the deck, the poll found President Barack Obama with an only slightly negative job performance rating, 48 percent negative to 45 percent positive, which is far better than his national figure and a sign that the president from Chicago retains considerable home-state loyalty.

The HuffPo average in this race is Durbin +11.75.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


11 Comments
  1. - Will Caskey - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    LOL.

    Gravis on PA 2012 http://www.politicspa.com/gravis-poll-obama-48-romney-45/43007/

    Gravis on OH 2012 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

    Etc etc. Gravis’ fan base overlaps with the Unskewed movement pretty heavily.


  2. - VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Look at that graph.
    This is a blue state. Quinn is sitting on the floor. He hasn’t budged in nine months of polling against Rauner.

    Quinn’s problem isn’t Rauner. Quinn’s problem is that he hasn’t given voters a reason to vote for him again. Quinn is losing to Rauner because Quinn isn’t selling Quinn. We see Rauner selling Rauner and we see voters buying.

    But then, Rauner is the only candidate that is selling himself to voters, right?

    If this was a foot race, Quinn would still be lacing up his shoes at the starting line and telling us Rauner is wearing expensive shoes.


  3. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Sounds about right. It appears that there will be no “coattails” from either Quinn or Durbin for each other or the Congressional races this year.

    The most likely voters in Illinois to be motivated for November seem to be those on the state payroll, public union members, and really fed up Republicans who are sick of the way things are going in Springfield.

    That may negate “soft” Dem voter numerical advantages in Illinjois.

    I really don’t hear Durbin getting much love from Dems to whom I’ve spoken, but, if they vote, they’ll vote for him. There seems to be general contempt even amongst Dems for Harry Reid, so there doesn’t seem to be all that much interest in keeping the Dems in control of the Senate. Obama seems to be always whining about nothing getting done in Congress even with control of the Senate, so why get hot and bothered about maintaing control for Harry Reid if it’s not doing any good anyway?

    Oberweis seems to be “phoning it in” so I really can’t see him winning unless there’s a complete Dem collapse, but I don’t see Madigan letting that happen. If only he had an Irish surname….


  4. - plutocrat03 - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    DD can keep his campaign money in the bank.

    A double digit lead over a candidate the has lost a number of previous statewide races is unlikely to be lost.


  5. - dupage dan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    Rauner ain’t to the magic 50% number yet. Still room for both to grow. Quinn will not give up. He’s the 4th Qtr comeback king, just ask Brady. Rauner would be a fool to think he has this sewn up.

    So would Durbin. Oberweis has lost a lot of races but he has been honing his craft and doesn’t sound nearly as loopy as he did in years past. Still a long shot for him but this is a down year for dems nationally. Who knows about Illinois?


  6. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    The poll average seems about right. It’s poll aggregation that gives us the best insight, though certainly other factors are important, such as turnout.

    Who will inspire voters to turn out in the highest numbers? Rauner is opening campaign offices, and Quinn has the unions behind him.

    There are still three months to go before the election. There is plenty of time for undecideds to make up their minds.

    “Gravis on OH 2012″

    I remember those polling results from Gravis in the 2012 Presidential Election. Some of them were being released, favoring Romney, when other polls showed Obama consistently leading. I’m not sure how Gravis did overall, but I remember commenters on other blogs mentioning the firm’s strange outlier polls.


  7. - Hey There - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    For the Democrats this election will all be about base turnout; not persuasion. An exception is PQ who apparently still needs to persuade his base to at least be motivated enough–and scared enough of Rauner–to show up, hold their noses and vote for PQ.
    Unlike some past elections, the Democrats won’t spend any time or money trying to persuade those pesky and unreliable Independents. In fact, the fewer Indys who vote this cycle the better off Democratic candidates will be up and down the ballot.
    The persuasion game seems to be the burden of Rauner this year. Rauner needs to persuade the Indys–and perhaps some Ds– that he’s not an extremist on social and other issues and that PQ is a disaster and a redux of Blago. Rauner might also have to persuade some hard core right elements of the GOP downstate that they should vote for him despite his views on social issues.


  8. - TRUTH BE TOLD - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Does Gravas own the Gravas Marketing Poll? Do they get a number of their respondants from their web site?


  9. - Snucka - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:15 pm:

    This election will be decided in the suburbs. I would love to see a really good poll just focused there. Quinn got almost 60% in 2010 and polls are currently showing almost a complete reversal. If Quinn can even get it to 50-50, he will have a chance to win if turnout is good in Chicago. If Rauner wins the suburbs by more than 2 points or so, it is over.

    Team Z and company better get to work.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:52 pm:

    To the Post,

    I am guessing it was at 6-10 points for Rauner, figuring where all polls are, so I am not shocked, or feel one way or theories about the numbers.

    Rauner’s negatives need to skyrocket.

    Positives are not going to bring this back for Quinn.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 12, 14 @ 7:26 am:

    All is not lost for the Quinn campaign, but it seems like the one thing that has been missing since Day One at Quinn HQ is a sense of urgency.

    Remember Bush in 1992?

    No incumbent campaign ever wants to admit they are a few points down, but who can honestly expect Quinn to confront the budget and economic realities facing the people of Illinois if he cannot honestly confront the reality facing his campaign?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Kirk touts bill to refund $154K to Chicago Stock Exchange
* Tomorrow's news today
* Rauner launches new blog
* Question of the day
* Illinois Policy Institute wins Round 2 of EDR battle
* A lesson in why tougher laws don't always work
* Trump campaign blames Rauner-signed law for Chicago violence increase
* Republican candidate says he doesn't want newspaper's endorsement
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Rate Munger's first TV ad
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Shazam is finally profitable after a billion downloads
* Spotify could out-dance Apple if it does acquire SoundCloud
* Google Pixel XL render tour, device dimensions leaked
* Rogers bundling free Insta-Share Projector mod with every Moto Z pre-order
* Google Apps for Work gets upgrades, rebranded to G Suite
* MightyTV’s Tinder-style TV recommendation app comes to Android
* Apple iPhone 7 vs iPhone 6S: 4 Reasons to Upgrade (and 3 Reasons Against)

* Narvaez hopes for shot to start next season
* Sale to start season finale on Sunday
* Gonzalez twirls gem as Frazier's HR beats Rays
* Frazier reaches personal goal with 40th HR
* Gonzalez twirls gem as Frazier's HR beats Rays
* Ventura declines comment on expiring contract
* Quintana looks to end season with win over Rays

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inma.....
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inma.....
* Crisis pregnancy centers sue Bruce Rauner, Illi.....
* AFSCME Ad Accuses Rauner of 'Waging War' on Ill.....
* AFSCME Ad Accuses Rauner of 'Waging War' on Ill.....
* Gov. Rauner's Deficit Projection $2.4B Less Tha.....
* Rauner, Democrat Lawmakers Urge Passage of Inma.....


* Ex-NBA player shows fear during testimony against gang
* Why is Chicago a murder capital? Clues from a bloody month
* Declining rattlesnake species to get federal protection
* Clinton makes it clear she knows many world leaders
* A closer look as deadline for Chicago teachers strike nears
* Harrisburg murder suspect charged with attempted kidnapping
* Illinois pays past-due utility bills for state buildings
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* Former Lake Station mayor, wife sentenced in gambling scheme

* Rauner's deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* State of Illinois caught up on CWLP bills
* Gov. Rauner's budget deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Federal judge won't reverse ruling on Illinois voter registration
* Illinois asks judge to reverse voter-registration ruling
* State: Chicago-area doctor puts cat saliva in vaccines
* Diagnosed concussions among Illinois youth up 83 percent
* Federal judge OKs improvement plan for Illinois child agency
* Audit: College of DuPage severance outpaces similar deals

* Why the $600 EpiPen costs $69 in Britain
* Harken exits Obamacare markets as UnitedHealth startup struggles
* Obama administration failed to follow health law, report says
* Home Chef gets $40 million from L Catterton
* Calamos faces whistleblower lawsuit


* Lady Gaga to headline halftime show of Super Bowl LI
* Man gets 25 years for 2014 murder during drug deal in Aurora
* Suit: Taxi hits CPD officer crossing the street in South Loop
* Sneed: Ivanka and Da Coach hit it off at fundraiser
* Overplotted musical ‘Fly By Night’ never quite takes off
* Baby steps: Young Bears on D making progress, ‘but not enough’
* White Sox notes: Sale to pitch finale, Saladino’s back, Abreu
* Offseason changes have left a ‘better vibe’ says Doug McDermott
* This is a good week to have Zach Miller on your fantasy team
* Denzel Valentine doesn’t have a set position and doesn’t mind


* Student creates prosthetic so girl born without hand can master the violin
* Family: South suburban teen killed on first day of college
* Newt Gingrich, who led impeachment fight, says Trump wrong to revive Bill Clinton scandals
* McDonald shooting witness sues, says police pressured her to change story
* 'Hard Brexit' looms as 28 red lines turn deeper shade of scarlet
* Congress puts the U.S. in danger by overturning Obama veto
* Try not to (use that word) as Cubs fans get giddy
* Emanuel: If teachers strike, they chose disrupting children's education over pay raises
* Officials: Evanston woman charged with making false threat against Illinois Tollway Authority
* Woman's body found at west suburban White Pines Golf Course, authorities say


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Rauner's deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* State of Illinois caught up on CWLP bills
* Gov. Rauner's budget deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Federal judge won't reverse ruling on Illinois voter registration
* Illinois asks judge to reverse voter-registration ruling
* Bernard Schoenburg: GOP attacks DelGiorno for pension he now won't get
* Eugene Robinson: Clinton delivers a beat-down
* Ralph Martire: A useful exercise in defending the indefensible
* George Will: Donald Trump's rise reflects America's decay


* Semper Fidelis Club to hold fundraising walk
* PODCAST:Sports Talk 09-29-16
* Wapsi floodwaters cover secondary roadways
* Kirkpatrick seeks appeal of her felony aggravated animal cruelty conviction
* Little Egypt Beer to open brewpub in West Frankfort
* Serving hotcakes: IHOP opens its door to the public Monday
* UPDATE: Early voting draws a crowd
* Black Violin perform at Franklin Middle School
* Illinois pays past-due utility bills for state buildings
* Franklin County treasurer: Real estate taxes due Wednesday


* Woman's body found at White Pines in Bensenville
* Week 6: Scouting the Northern Lake
* Week 6: Scouting the North Suburban
* Burglary charges dismissed in case of Elgin missing jewelry
* Lopez was left in dark about trade

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin: Trump “Bromance” With Putin Threat......

* Sen. Mark Kirk Turns Down Several Chicago ......
* Kirk touts bill to refund $154K to Chicago......

* Federal Judge Approves Of Illinois DCFS Changes
* Early Voting Begins Thursday In Illinois
* Cartoon Of The Day
* GOP Group Puts Northwest Illinois House Race On Watch List
* Lawsuit: Chicago Cops Pressured McDonald Shooting Witness To 'Forget' What She Saw
* AFSCME Targets Rauner With New Ad (VIDEO)
* CEO pay businessman money image
* Report: U.S. Taxpayers Subsidized $725 Million In Wall Street CEO Bonuses In The Last Four Years
* Cartoon of the Day - 9/28/16 Trump snorting at the debate
* Federal Judge Declines To Stay Ruling On Illinois Same-Day Voter Registration


* Illinois awarded $1 million grant to pilot person-centered supportive services program - Program will help persons living with or those at high-risk of developing Alzheimer’s and related dementia
* Governor Rauner Urges Action on Bipartisan Legislation to Reduce Recidivism
* Governor Rauner Encourages Illinoisans to Receive Flu Shot
* Honoring Former President and Prime Minister of Israel - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff immediately until Sunset, Friday, September 30, 2016.
* First 2016 Human West Nile Virus Deaths in Illinois




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller