SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Polling average: Rauner 7-8 points ahead

Monday, Aug 11, 2014

* Another day, another poll

According to a survey by Gravis Marketing for Human Events magazine, Mr. Rauner leads Mr. Quinn by 8 points among likely election voters, with 48 percent for the Republican challenger and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent. A considerable 12 percent of voters are reported as undecided, many of them Democrats.

Both men improved their standing slightly from the last Gravis survey in April, when the numbers were 43 percent to 35 percent.

The survey, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, includes only a portion of Mr. Quinn’s recent Cayman Islands/Rauner’s rich assault. But if Mr. Quinn is drawing only 31 percent of the independent vote, he’s going to have a problem in the Nov. 4 election.

From the pollster

The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.

Hmm.

* Huffpo included the survey in its polling chart

Real Clear Politics has not yet plugged in this new survey. RCP’s average is a seven-point led for Rauner, which is only a point away from HuffPo’s.

* Meanwhile

Back to Gravis, which showed Mr. Durbin with a rather narrow 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Mr. Oberweis, with 14 percent undecided. If true, it’s not a very impressive lead.

Mr.Durbin’s campaign had no immediate response to the poll. But he has been furiously campaigning of late, a sign that he’s a smart politician, or that he’s a tad concerned, or perhaps a bit of both.

For those Democrats who think Winter Springs, Fla.-based Gravis might have stacked the deck, the poll found President Barack Obama with an only slightly negative job performance rating, 48 percent negative to 45 percent positive, which is far better than his national figure and a sign that the president from Chicago retains considerable home-state loyalty.

The HuffPo average in this race is Durbin +11.75.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


11 Comments
  1. - Will Caskey - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    LOL.

    Gravis on PA 2012 http://www.politicspa.com/gravis-poll-obama-48-romney-45/43007/

    Gravis on OH 2012 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

    Etc etc. Gravis’ fan base overlaps with the Unskewed movement pretty heavily.


  2. - VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Look at that graph.
    This is a blue state. Quinn is sitting on the floor. He hasn’t budged in nine months of polling against Rauner.

    Quinn’s problem isn’t Rauner. Quinn’s problem is that he hasn’t given voters a reason to vote for him again. Quinn is losing to Rauner because Quinn isn’t selling Quinn. We see Rauner selling Rauner and we see voters buying.

    But then, Rauner is the only candidate that is selling himself to voters, right?

    If this was a foot race, Quinn would still be lacing up his shoes at the starting line and telling us Rauner is wearing expensive shoes.


  3. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Sounds about right. It appears that there will be no “coattails” from either Quinn or Durbin for each other or the Congressional races this year.

    The most likely voters in Illinois to be motivated for November seem to be those on the state payroll, public union members, and really fed up Republicans who are sick of the way things are going in Springfield.

    That may negate “soft” Dem voter numerical advantages in Illinjois.

    I really don’t hear Durbin getting much love from Dems to whom I’ve spoken, but, if they vote, they’ll vote for him. There seems to be general contempt even amongst Dems for Harry Reid, so there doesn’t seem to be all that much interest in keeping the Dems in control of the Senate. Obama seems to be always whining about nothing getting done in Congress even with control of the Senate, so why get hot and bothered about maintaing control for Harry Reid if it’s not doing any good anyway?

    Oberweis seems to be “phoning it in” so I really can’t see him winning unless there’s a complete Dem collapse, but I don’t see Madigan letting that happen. If only he had an Irish surname….


  4. - plutocrat03 - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    DD can keep his campaign money in the bank.

    A double digit lead over a candidate the has lost a number of previous statewide races is unlikely to be lost.


  5. - dupage dan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    Rauner ain’t to the magic 50% number yet. Still room for both to grow. Quinn will not give up. He’s the 4th Qtr comeback king, just ask Brady. Rauner would be a fool to think he has this sewn up.

    So would Durbin. Oberweis has lost a lot of races but he has been honing his craft and doesn’t sound nearly as loopy as he did in years past. Still a long shot for him but this is a down year for dems nationally. Who knows about Illinois?


  6. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    The poll average seems about right. It’s poll aggregation that gives us the best insight, though certainly other factors are important, such as turnout.

    Who will inspire voters to turn out in the highest numbers? Rauner is opening campaign offices, and Quinn has the unions behind him.

    There are still three months to go before the election. There is plenty of time for undecideds to make up their minds.

    “Gravis on OH 2012″

    I remember those polling results from Gravis in the 2012 Presidential Election. Some of them were being released, favoring Romney, when other polls showed Obama consistently leading. I’m not sure how Gravis did overall, but I remember commenters on other blogs mentioning the firm’s strange outlier polls.


  7. - Hey There - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    For the Democrats this election will all be about base turnout; not persuasion. An exception is PQ who apparently still needs to persuade his base to at least be motivated enough–and scared enough of Rauner–to show up, hold their noses and vote for PQ.
    Unlike some past elections, the Democrats won’t spend any time or money trying to persuade those pesky and unreliable Independents. In fact, the fewer Indys who vote this cycle the better off Democratic candidates will be up and down the ballot.
    The persuasion game seems to be the burden of Rauner this year. Rauner needs to persuade the Indys–and perhaps some Ds– that he’s not an extremist on social and other issues and that PQ is a disaster and a redux of Blago. Rauner might also have to persuade some hard core right elements of the GOP downstate that they should vote for him despite his views on social issues.


  8. - TRUTH BE TOLD - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Does Gravas own the Gravas Marketing Poll? Do they get a number of their respondants from their web site?


  9. - Snucka - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:15 pm:

    This election will be decided in the suburbs. I would love to see a really good poll just focused there. Quinn got almost 60% in 2010 and polls are currently showing almost a complete reversal. If Quinn can even get it to 50-50, he will have a chance to win if turnout is good in Chicago. If Rauner wins the suburbs by more than 2 points or so, it is over.

    Team Z and company better get to work.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:52 pm:

    To the Post,

    I am guessing it was at 6-10 points for Rauner, figuring where all polls are, so I am not shocked, or feel one way or theories about the numbers.

    Rauner’s negatives need to skyrocket.

    Positives are not going to bring this back for Quinn.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 12, 14 @ 7:26 am:

    All is not lost for the Quinn campaign, but it seems like the one thing that has been missing since Day One at Quinn HQ is a sense of urgency.

    Remember Bush in 1992?

    No incumbent campaign ever wants to admit they are a few points down, but who can honestly expect Quinn to confront the budget and economic realities facing the people of Illinois if he cannot honestly confront the reality facing his campaign?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* No pension bump for Stermer, MJM still not persuaded on special session
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - More comptroller stuff
* 1:30 comptroller announcement expected - Stermer appointed, says he will resign January 12th
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Comptroller stuff
* Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Bears open thread
* More adventures in misgovernance
* Question of the day - Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Petulance all around
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Announcement timing is everything
        * Galaxy Note Edge Review
        * Oppo R5 vs HTC One M8: Thin vs. Powerful
        * Bring Back the Old School with the NES30 Bluetooth Controller [DEALS]
        * OnePlus One mini, BlackBerry Classic, Windows Phone ups & downs | Pocketnow Weekly 127
        * Get off the fence and go get a smartwatch
        * Apple Watch retail, Android Wear Lollipop, Nexus 6 comments & more – Pocketnow Daily Recap

        * Pull Out the Photo Album to Help Family Members with Alzheimer's
        * Chrome OS Gains Experimental “OK Google” Always-On Feature
        * The Pirate Bay’s Domain Appears To Be Back Online
        * Sony Considering How To Distribute “The Interview”
        * Request a “Status Match” to Transfer Perks to Another Loyalty Program
        * Capital Gains: Upfront Ventures Raises New Fund, SurveyMonkey Valued at $2 Billion and More
        * Check Out the Best From This Week's Open Thread

        * The year in injuries: White Sox have been better, could've been worse
        * Williams: Make protesting voices heard through vote
        * Williams: Make protesting voices heard through vote
        * White Sox also had a December to remember 100 years ago
        * Terrerobytes: Future of Cuban baseball complicated on both sides
        * White Sox sign George Kottaras to a minor league deal
        * Kottaras to join White Sox with Minor League deal

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Illinois Temporary Income Tax expires soon..
        * Gov. Quinn set to go to Maryland to visit soldiers..
        * Quinn set to go to Maryland to visit soldiers..
        * LETTER: Rauner grows more arrogant..


        * 4 people including 2 children killed at Rockford home
        * 4 found dead, including 2 children, in Rockford
        * Quinn set to go to Maryland to visit soldiers
        * Illinois to get $1.6M for Heart of Dallas Bowl
        * Report: Illinois treasurer OK'd raises for dozens
        * 1 dead, many injured in shooting at suburban party
        * Milestone in osprey program as birds migrate
        * Raising juror pay, reducing juries gets mixed reviews
        * Police looking for suspect in Effingham shooting
        * Firefighters battle grain bin fire for 9 hours

        * Gov. Quinn set to go to Maryland to visit soldiers
        * State treasurer employees get raises, stipends as Rutherford’s term comes to end
        * Springfield-based U.S. attorney’s investigations nab 13; race questions raised
        * 2nd Illinois prison with possible chickenpox
        * Quinn signs bill increasing juror pay
        * Quinn names longtime aide Jerry Stermer comptroller until Jan. 12
        * Quinn signs law to nix deadline for asbestos lawsuits
        * Quinn to name comptroller replacement this afternoon
        * Madigan says T-Mobile settlement shields consumers
        * Quinn calls legislature back to Springfield to approve special election to replace Topinka

        * Can Garcia's run for mayor fire up independents?
        * Chicago's newest workout (and personal statement) options
        * A photo shop for photographers
        * The Life of Patrick Ryan: Act II, Scene 2
        * Office conversions kick small firms to the curb


        * Lakeview pot dispensary on hold; Tunney opposes Halsted location
        * Despite community pleas, CPS puts Dyett HS out for proposals
        * Quinn to appoint new Illinois Comptroller today
        * Gov. Quinn appoints longtime aide as Illinois comptroller
        * Watch: President Obama's year-end press conference
        * Rewriting the Sony cyberattack script
        * time for new course in Cuba
        * Are Rahm's numbers creeping up? New internals show him near 50
        * Obama guidance, press schedule, Dec. 19, 2014. Press conference
        * A whole lot of nothing from the City Council


        * 5 wounded in separate West, South side shootings
        * Mayoral challengers call for suspension of red light camera program
        * Man killed at house party shooting was headed to Army
        * Cops warn of attempted child luring on West Side
        * Bronzeville man held on $300K in Loop convenience store robbery
        * Mother, her 2 young children among 4 found dead in Rockford
        * South Loop crash leaves two dead, one hospitalized
        * At least 5 wounded in shootings since Saturday evening
        * FBI: 'Play-Along Bandit' hits 6th bank


        * Listen to State Week - December 19, 2014
        * Quinn Picks Budget Chief To Be Temporary Comptroller
        * 'Uber-gentrification' a force in Chicago's West Loop
        * Durbin leaving Congressional roommates behind
        * Worries rise in Russia as ruble falls
        * Improviser finds purpose in Chicago police mental health crisis trainings
        * Chicago 'petcoke' handler says it'll enclose piles
        * Waukegan woman seeks to trademark 'I can't breathe'
        * Obama re-establishing US relations with Cuba
        * Teaching hospitals hit hardest by medicare fines for patient safety


        * Gov. Quinn set to go to Maryland to visit soldiers
        * Quote of the day: Sunday, Dec. 21, 2014
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Rauner talks of dogs, housing and the work ahead as governor
        * State treasurer employees get raises, stipends as Rutherford’s term comes to end
        * Cathy Becker: Because it’s the right thing to do
        * T. Ray McJunkins: Justice, righteousness descend to fulfill dream
        * Springfield-based U.S. attorney’s investigations nab 13; race questions raised
        * 2nd Illinois prison with possible chickenpox
        * Sen. Dick Durbin: Clean water access bill honors Simon
        * Charles Krauthammer: How to fight the lone wolf


        * Dozens gather to remember the homeless
        * Unfair labor practice finding results in $300,000 settlement with St. Clair sheriff’s deputies
        * Clyde Hunt
        * ‘I did it’: Zion preschoolers learn computer coding
        * McCrady goodbye reception
        * Police investigating incident on West Washington
        * Police investigating shooting on West Washington
        * Several church burglarized Sunday morning
        * Man killed in accident near Heyworth
        * Dan Corkery: She's taking her charity to the next level


        * No. 13 Duke women top No. 8 Kentucky, 89-68
        * Gray leads No. 6 North Carolina to 85-67 victory
        * No. 19 Oklahoma St rallies for 66-62 win over USC
        * Logic gives No. 23 Iowa wild 100-98 win over Drake
        * Documents: QB Winston cleared in conduct hearing

        * Rep. Jan Schakowsky: I Voted Against the R...
        * Federal Bill Introduced to Ban Fracking on...
        * Representatives Pocan and Schakowsky Intro...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Statement on...
        * Representatives Schakowsky, Gutierrez and ...
        * Area leaders show support for president's ...
        * Saez 202-225-3130 Hoyer Congratulates Lead...
        * Rahm, Rep. Gutierrez to Rally Immigrants U...

        * Are Academics Limited When It Comes To Fre......
        * U.S. Senator Calling For Better Prosthetic......

        * Illinois Teen Accused Of Trying To Join IS......
        * GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski Supports Gay Marriage...
        * Second GOP Senator Backs Gay Marriage...

        * Rahm says SEIU 73’s Boardman can bargain away employee pensions. I don’t think so.
        * Elected retired delegates are on a watch list at the IEA RA.
        * Tollway Testing Apps To Let Drivers Pay Tolls, Get Travel Info
        * Rubio.
        * Sunday reads.
        * Mayor Emanuel continues getting cash from firms managing Chicago's pension money
        * Islamic State Mocks US With Photoshopped Santa Held Hostage
        * Islamic State Mocks U.S. With Photoshopped Santa Held Hostage
        * Politically Connected Profit From United Center Parking Scam
        * Ready Aim Fire


        * Governor Quinn Appoints Jerry Stermer as Illinois Comptroller
        * Governor Quinn Calls Legislative Special Session - Governor Urges Legislature to Set Up 2016 Special Election for Comptroller
        * Governor Quinn Announces Illinois’ Unemployment Rate Hits New Low - Illinois’ Economic Comeback Continues; Unemployment Rate Falls to Lowest Level in More than Six Years
        * Illinois Ranks #1 in Volunteer Rate Among the Country’s 8 Largest States - 2.57 Million Illinoisans Give $7.2 Billion in Service
        * Law Enforcement, IDOT Make Final Push to Save Lives in 2014, Roadside Safety Checks Planned Over Holidays - New Episode of “The Driving Dead” Premieres Friday as Holiday Travelers are Reminded to Drive Sober and Buckle Up




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller