SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Polling average: Rauner 7-8 points ahead

Monday, Aug 11, 2014

* Another day, another poll

According to a survey by Gravis Marketing for Human Events magazine, Mr. Rauner leads Mr. Quinn by 8 points among likely election voters, with 48 percent for the Republican challenger and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent. A considerable 12 percent of voters are reported as undecided, many of them Democrats.

Both men improved their standing slightly from the last Gravis survey in April, when the numbers were 43 percent to 35 percent.

The survey, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, includes only a portion of Mr. Quinn’s recent Cayman Islands/Rauner’s rich assault. But if Mr. Quinn is drawing only 31 percent of the independent vote, he’s going to have a problem in the Nov. 4 election.

From the pollster

The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.

Hmm.

* Huffpo included the survey in its polling chart

Real Clear Politics has not yet plugged in this new survey. RCP’s average is a seven-point led for Rauner, which is only a point away from HuffPo’s.

* Meanwhile

Back to Gravis, which showed Mr. Durbin with a rather narrow 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Mr. Oberweis, with 14 percent undecided. If true, it’s not a very impressive lead.

Mr.Durbin’s campaign had no immediate response to the poll. But he has been furiously campaigning of late, a sign that he’s a smart politician, or that he’s a tad concerned, or perhaps a bit of both.

For those Democrats who think Winter Springs, Fla.-based Gravis might have stacked the deck, the poll found President Barack Obama with an only slightly negative job performance rating, 48 percent negative to 45 percent positive, which is far better than his national figure and a sign that the president from Chicago retains considerable home-state loyalty.

The HuffPo average in this race is Durbin +11.75.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


11 Comments
  1. - Will Caskey - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    LOL.

    Gravis on PA 2012 http://www.politicspa.com/gravis-poll-obama-48-romney-45/43007/

    Gravis on OH 2012 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

    Etc etc. Gravis’ fan base overlaps with the Unskewed movement pretty heavily.


  2. - VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Look at that graph.
    This is a blue state. Quinn is sitting on the floor. He hasn’t budged in nine months of polling against Rauner.

    Quinn’s problem isn’t Rauner. Quinn’s problem is that he hasn’t given voters a reason to vote for him again. Quinn is losing to Rauner because Quinn isn’t selling Quinn. We see Rauner selling Rauner and we see voters buying.

    But then, Rauner is the only candidate that is selling himself to voters, right?

    If this was a foot race, Quinn would still be lacing up his shoes at the starting line and telling us Rauner is wearing expensive shoes.


  3. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Sounds about right. It appears that there will be no “coattails” from either Quinn or Durbin for each other or the Congressional races this year.

    The most likely voters in Illinois to be motivated for November seem to be those on the state payroll, public union members, and really fed up Republicans who are sick of the way things are going in Springfield.

    That may negate “soft” Dem voter numerical advantages in Illinjois.

    I really don’t hear Durbin getting much love from Dems to whom I’ve spoken, but, if they vote, they’ll vote for him. There seems to be general contempt even amongst Dems for Harry Reid, so there doesn’t seem to be all that much interest in keeping the Dems in control of the Senate. Obama seems to be always whining about nothing getting done in Congress even with control of the Senate, so why get hot and bothered about maintaing control for Harry Reid if it’s not doing any good anyway?

    Oberweis seems to be “phoning it in” so I really can’t see him winning unless there’s a complete Dem collapse, but I don’t see Madigan letting that happen. If only he had an Irish surname….


  4. - plutocrat03 - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    DD can keep his campaign money in the bank.

    A double digit lead over a candidate the has lost a number of previous statewide races is unlikely to be lost.


  5. - dupage dan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    Rauner ain’t to the magic 50% number yet. Still room for both to grow. Quinn will not give up. He’s the 4th Qtr comeback king, just ask Brady. Rauner would be a fool to think he has this sewn up.

    So would Durbin. Oberweis has lost a lot of races but he has been honing his craft and doesn’t sound nearly as loopy as he did in years past. Still a long shot for him but this is a down year for dems nationally. Who knows about Illinois?


  6. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    The poll average seems about right. It’s poll aggregation that gives us the best insight, though certainly other factors are important, such as turnout.

    Who will inspire voters to turn out in the highest numbers? Rauner is opening campaign offices, and Quinn has the unions behind him.

    There are still three months to go before the election. There is plenty of time for undecideds to make up their minds.

    “Gravis on OH 2012″

    I remember those polling results from Gravis in the 2012 Presidential Election. Some of them were being released, favoring Romney, when other polls showed Obama consistently leading. I’m not sure how Gravis did overall, but I remember commenters on other blogs mentioning the firm’s strange outlier polls.


  7. - Hey There - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    For the Democrats this election will all be about base turnout; not persuasion. An exception is PQ who apparently still needs to persuade his base to at least be motivated enough–and scared enough of Rauner–to show up, hold their noses and vote for PQ.
    Unlike some past elections, the Democrats won’t spend any time or money trying to persuade those pesky and unreliable Independents. In fact, the fewer Indys who vote this cycle the better off Democratic candidates will be up and down the ballot.
    The persuasion game seems to be the burden of Rauner this year. Rauner needs to persuade the Indys–and perhaps some Ds– that he’s not an extremist on social and other issues and that PQ is a disaster and a redux of Blago. Rauner might also have to persuade some hard core right elements of the GOP downstate that they should vote for him despite his views on social issues.


  8. - TRUTH BE TOLD - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Does Gravas own the Gravas Marketing Poll? Do they get a number of their respondants from their web site?


  9. - Snucka - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:15 pm:

    This election will be decided in the suburbs. I would love to see a really good poll just focused there. Quinn got almost 60% in 2010 and polls are currently showing almost a complete reversal. If Quinn can even get it to 50-50, he will have a chance to win if turnout is good in Chicago. If Rauner wins the suburbs by more than 2 points or so, it is over.

    Team Z and company better get to work.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:52 pm:

    To the Post,

    I am guessing it was at 6-10 points for Rauner, figuring where all polls are, so I am not shocked, or feel one way or theories about the numbers.

    Rauner’s negatives need to skyrocket.

    Positives are not going to bring this back for Quinn.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 12, 14 @ 7:26 am:

    All is not lost for the Quinn campaign, but it seems like the one thing that has been missing since Day One at Quinn HQ is a sense of urgency.

    Remember Bush in 1992?

    No incumbent campaign ever wants to admit they are a few points down, but who can honestly expect Quinn to confront the budget and economic realities facing the people of Illinois if he cannot honestly confront the reality facing his campaign?


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Monday
* TrackBill update
* Caption contest!
* It's worse than we thought
* Question of the day
* Long-term debt is not short-term debt
* Today's quotable
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Tonino Lamborghini 88 Tauri DSDA smartphone unveiled
        * HP welcomes second-gen Slate 6 VoiceTab
        * MarkO wants to be your productivity buddy
        * Learn to design iPhone and iPad apps with The iOS 8 and Swift Developers Course
        * How to make the best cover images for your social media accounts
        * Expect even more VR stuff from Oculus VR and Samsung
        * Android 5.0 for Galaxy S5 leaked and available, sort of

        * “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Trailer Debuts Friday on Apple’s iTunes
        * Freeze Your Tights to Make Them More Durable
        * Uber Under Fire for Android Permissions
        * Ultimate Tips for Black Friday and Cyber Monday Deals
        * Several of the Best Black Friday Action Cam Deals are Live Right Now
        * AT&T Says It Still Plans to Expand High-Speed Internet in DirecTV Acquisition
        * Leave on a Jet Plane with These Travel Wallpapers

        * White Sox ACE program helps send players to college
        * Additional 2005 fan-favorite players added to '15 SoxFest
        * White Sox introduce Adam LaRoche and their plans for him
        * White Sox plan for contention a work in progress
        * White Sox officially announce LaRoche deal
        * Red Sox seize offseason driver's seat with signings
        * White Sox officially announce LaRoche deal

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Illinois asks state's top court to revive pensi.....
        * Statehouse staffing is down, but it’s not all d.....
        * Amended Minimum Wage Bill Heads to Senate Floor..


        * Illinois doctor fined over medical marijuana slip
        * Archbishop praises Obama's action on immigration
        * Gov. grants clemency linked to wrongful conviction
        * Firefighters rescue 4 boa constrictors from fire
        * Illinois AG files notice of appeal in pension case
        * Holiday travelers greeted by cheap gas, storms
        * Wrigley Field bleacher renovation may be delayed
        * Jobless rate falls in all 12 Illinois metro areas
        * New Lincoln museum exhibit has bed where he died
        * Illinois gives $4.5M food banks for modernization

        * Illinois attorney general files notice of appeal in pension case
        * Quinn grants clemency to 126 ahead of holiday
        * Illinois gives $4.5M food banks for modernization
        * State begins accepting fracking applications
        * Debt rating agencies weigh in on state pension ruling
        * Lisa Madigan to ask Illinois Supreme Court to consider pensions
        * Rauner tackles transition agenda
        * Attorney general warns of immigration scams
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court next
        * State to refund $60 million in retiree health care money

        * Most BP oil spill claims handled correctly, McGladrey says
        * Illinois AG Madigan files notice of appeal in pension case
        * Congressmen sound alarm over anti-Asian Carp move
        * Motorola Mobility loses bid to extend antitrust law reach
        * Chicago business activity is growing—but at a slower pace


        * Charity event looks like turkey tokenism
        * Lisa Madigan appeals ruling that KOed pension law
        * Release Koschman grand jury records
        * Giving thanks for silver linings
        * State: Doctor fined for offering 'pre-approval' for medical pot
        * What you need to know for Thanksgiving travel
        * Jobless rate falls in all 12 Illinois metro areas
        * Thanks for fracking — and chocolate
        * Higher minimum wage for Chicago alone would be devastating
        * Anti-coal activists rip Mayor Rahm Emanuel over campaign ad


        * 4 hurt in separate city shootings
        * New dog-friendly park coming to South Loop
        * Cupich calls Obama executive order on immigration a 'first step'
        * Island Lake cops recount helping at scene where 2 deputies were shot
        * School lunch sales rise in district that rejected health guidelines
        * Wrigley bleachers might not be ready for 2015 opener
        * Doctor at marijuana clinic gets fine, probationary license status
        * Family of boy killed in fire files lawsuit
        * Charges reinstated against Park Ridge cop accused of off-duty beatings
        * HPHS athletic director dismissed for 'inappropriate electronic communications'


        * Let's Talk Kids - "Love Is Love"
        * LLCC Offers Variety Of Community Education Classes
        * Incoming U of I President Speaks To Springfield Audience
        * Another Year Of "Messiah" For Springfield Choral Society
        * Fumée Gypsy Project Plays At WUIS
        * New Exhibit On Lincoln's "Undying Words"
        * Locals Organize For Vigil In Response To Ferguson
        * Illinois Hunters Kill 52,000 Deer Over The Weekend
        * Pension Ruling "Credit Negative," But No Ratings Change
        * Tim Landis: Foreclosure Sales, CIPS Icehouse and Heritage River Trail


        * Illinois attorney general files notice of appeal in pension case
        * Quinn grants clemency to 126 ahead of holiday
        * Illinois gives $4.5M food banks for modernization
        * Michael Gerson: The big ‘but’ on immigration
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 26, 2014
        * State begins accepting fracking applications
        * Debt rating agencies weigh in on state pension ruling
        * Our Opinion: Another big weekend for football fans
        * Mary Auchstetter: The true story of Grain Belt Express
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 25, 2014


        * Thanksgiving shopping continues to grow
        * Sports Talk 11-26-14
        * Ugly sweater contest part of holiday events at Walker's Bluff
        * Tell us about your favorite toy
        * Eight local nonprofits receive $100,000 in grants
        * Bike for Brains now raising funds
        * Do you have an opinion on consolidating three Madison County school districts?
        * Arsenal to hold holiday tree lighting Dec. 4
        * Madigan appeals pension decision
        * Deere year-end profits lower, but still record


        * Woman: Des Plaines police stun-gunned me 12 times in drive-through
        * Obama gets the bill for White House Thanksgiving
        * Obama defends legal authority -- to pardon turkeys
        * U.S. tightens smog limits in bid to protect health
        * Schaumburg incumbents unite against challenger Moynihan

        * Rep. Lipinski Urges Ways and Means Committ...
        * Reps. Lipinski and Roskam Lead Effort to S...
        * Rep. Lipinski Urges Ways and Means Committ...
        * Lipinski on track with new rail policy pos...
        * Lipinski: New Mixture in Washington May Ge...
        * Lipinski Hoping for Restraint after Israel...
        * Lipinski Welcomes Archbishop Cupich, Thank...
        * Next Generation Supercomputing Technologie...
        * Sen. Wicker joins bill supporting Hong Kon...
        * Rep. Lipinski Accepting Service Academy Ap...

        * U.S. Senators Urge Uzbek President To Rele......
        * Durbin, Reed Lead 40 U.S. Senators In Back......

        * Obama headed for defeat on Iran sanctions...

        * The Beachwood Radio Sports Hour #27: The Bears Are Like Butter
        * The [Thanksgiving 2014] Papers
        * DEA allowed two tons of narcotics to flood Chicago streets
        * Student Committee Pushes for ‘Gender-Neutral’ Bathrooms at Loyola University
        * Who said it? Ted Cruz or Rahm Emanuel.
        * Rahm, the closer.
        * Southwestern IL members collect food and toys for charities
        * IAR offices close early today and reopen Dec. 1
        * Illinois AG asks state Supreme Court for quick ruling on pensions appeal
        * Chicago reporters publishes Officer Darren Wilson's address


        * Governor Quinn Announces Investment to Help Regional Food Banks Better Serve Those in Need - Governor’s Investment Will Ensure Lower Cost and Higher Efficiency for Services Reaching Nearly 2 Million Illinois Residents
        * Governor Pat Quinn Takes Clemency Action
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Abner Mikva Receiving Nation’s Highest Civilian Honor
        * Department of Insurance Announces Multi-State Settlement with Symetra Life Insurance and Symetra National Life Insurance Company - Illinois will share part of a $1.2 million penalty against Symetra Life regarding Life Insurance policies
        * Avoid Foodborne Illness This Holiday Season




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller