image
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Polling average: Rauner 7-8 points ahead

Monday, Aug 11, 2014

* Another day, another poll

According to a survey by Gravis Marketing for Human Events magazine, Mr. Rauner leads Mr. Quinn by 8 points among likely election voters, with 48 percent for the Republican challenger and 40 percent for the Democratic incumbent. A considerable 12 percent of voters are reported as undecided, many of them Democrats.

Both men improved their standing slightly from the last Gravis survey in April, when the numbers were 43 percent to 35 percent.

The survey, which has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, includes only a portion of Mr. Quinn’s recent Cayman Islands/Rauner’s rich assault. But if Mr. Quinn is drawing only 31 percent of the independent vote, he’s going to have a problem in the Nov. 4 election.

From the pollster

The political poll was completed using Gravis Marketing Internet Panels combined with traditional telephone responses. The results of this poll were weighted 20% via Gravis Internet Panels & 80% through an automated telephone survey.

Hmm.

* Huffpo included the survey in its polling chart

Real Clear Politics has not yet plugged in this new survey. RCP’s average is a seven-point led for Rauner, which is only a point away from HuffPo’s.

* Meanwhile

Back to Gravis, which showed Mr. Durbin with a rather narrow 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Mr. Oberweis, with 14 percent undecided. If true, it’s not a very impressive lead.

Mr.Durbin’s campaign had no immediate response to the poll. But he has been furiously campaigning of late, a sign that he’s a smart politician, or that he’s a tad concerned, or perhaps a bit of both.

For those Democrats who think Winter Springs, Fla.-based Gravis might have stacked the deck, the poll found President Barack Obama with an only slightly negative job performance rating, 48 percent negative to 45 percent positive, which is far better than his national figure and a sign that the president from Chicago retains considerable home-state loyalty.

The HuffPo average in this race is Durbin +11.75.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


11 Comments
  1. - Will Caskey - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    LOL.

    Gravis on PA 2012 http://www.politicspa.com/gravis-poll-obama-48-romney-45/43007/

    Gravis on OH 2012 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

    Etc etc. Gravis’ fan base overlaps with the Unskewed movement pretty heavily.


  2. - VanillaMan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Look at that graph.
    This is a blue state. Quinn is sitting on the floor. He hasn’t budged in nine months of polling against Rauner.

    Quinn’s problem isn’t Rauner. Quinn’s problem is that he hasn’t given voters a reason to vote for him again. Quinn is losing to Rauner because Quinn isn’t selling Quinn. We see Rauner selling Rauner and we see voters buying.

    But then, Rauner is the only candidate that is selling himself to voters, right?

    If this was a foot race, Quinn would still be lacing up his shoes at the starting line and telling us Rauner is wearing expensive shoes.


  3. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Sounds about right. It appears that there will be no “coattails” from either Quinn or Durbin for each other or the Congressional races this year.

    The most likely voters in Illinois to be motivated for November seem to be those on the state payroll, public union members, and really fed up Republicans who are sick of the way things are going in Springfield.

    That may negate “soft” Dem voter numerical advantages in Illinjois.

    I really don’t hear Durbin getting much love from Dems to whom I’ve spoken, but, if they vote, they’ll vote for him. There seems to be general contempt even amongst Dems for Harry Reid, so there doesn’t seem to be all that much interest in keeping the Dems in control of the Senate. Obama seems to be always whining about nothing getting done in Congress even with control of the Senate, so why get hot and bothered about maintaing control for Harry Reid if it’s not doing any good anyway?

    Oberweis seems to be “phoning it in” so I really can’t see him winning unless there’s a complete Dem collapse, but I don’t see Madigan letting that happen. If only he had an Irish surname….


  4. - plutocrat03 - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    DD can keep his campaign money in the bank.

    A double digit lead over a candidate the has lost a number of previous statewide races is unlikely to be lost.


  5. - dupage dan - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    Rauner ain’t to the magic 50% number yet. Still room for both to grow. Quinn will not give up. He’s the 4th Qtr comeback king, just ask Brady. Rauner would be a fool to think he has this sewn up.

    So would Durbin. Oberweis has lost a lot of races but he has been honing his craft and doesn’t sound nearly as loopy as he did in years past. Still a long shot for him but this is a down year for dems nationally. Who knows about Illinois?


  6. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    The poll average seems about right. It’s poll aggregation that gives us the best insight, though certainly other factors are important, such as turnout.

    Who will inspire voters to turn out in the highest numbers? Rauner is opening campaign offices, and Quinn has the unions behind him.

    There are still three months to go before the election. There is plenty of time for undecideds to make up their minds.

    “Gravis on OH 2012″

    I remember those polling results from Gravis in the 2012 Presidential Election. Some of them were being released, favoring Romney, when other polls showed Obama consistently leading. I’m not sure how Gravis did overall, but I remember commenters on other blogs mentioning the firm’s strange outlier polls.


  7. - Hey There - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    For the Democrats this election will all be about base turnout; not persuasion. An exception is PQ who apparently still needs to persuade his base to at least be motivated enough–and scared enough of Rauner–to show up, hold their noses and vote for PQ.
    Unlike some past elections, the Democrats won’t spend any time or money trying to persuade those pesky and unreliable Independents. In fact, the fewer Indys who vote this cycle the better off Democratic candidates will be up and down the ballot.
    The persuasion game seems to be the burden of Rauner this year. Rauner needs to persuade the Indys–and perhaps some Ds– that he’s not an extremist on social and other issues and that PQ is a disaster and a redux of Blago. Rauner might also have to persuade some hard core right elements of the GOP downstate that they should vote for him despite his views on social issues.


  8. - TRUTH BE TOLD - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    Does Gravas own the Gravas Marketing Poll? Do they get a number of their respondants from their web site?


  9. - Snucka - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:15 pm:

    This election will be decided in the suburbs. I would love to see a really good poll just focused there. Quinn got almost 60% in 2010 and polls are currently showing almost a complete reversal. If Quinn can even get it to 50-50, he will have a chance to win if turnout is good in Chicago. If Rauner wins the suburbs by more than 2 points or so, it is over.

    Team Z and company better get to work.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Aug 11, 14 @ 6:52 pm:

    To the Post,

    I am guessing it was at 6-10 points for Rauner, figuring where all polls are, so I am not shocked, or feel one way or theories about the numbers.

    Rauner’s negatives need to skyrocket.

    Positives are not going to bring this back for Quinn.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 12, 14 @ 7:26 am:

    All is not lost for the Quinn campaign, but it seems like the one thing that has been missing since Day One at Quinn HQ is a sense of urgency.

    Remember Bush in 1992?

    No incumbent campaign ever wants to admit they are a few points down, but who can honestly expect Quinn to confront the budget and economic realities facing the people of Illinois if he cannot honestly confront the reality facing his campaign?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Cardinal Francis George services announced
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Caption contest!
* Question of the day
* Hold off a bit, please
* The mental health cost shift
* Credit Unions – “People Helping People” and their Communities
* Redefining Darin
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner response *** Madigan to Rauner: Disclose how you reached your budget decisions
* Today's must-read
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* *** UPDATED x1 *** This morning's "right to work" tally
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Square Enix’s Masters of the Masks: different yet typical
        * Sprint starts pushing out Lollipop OTA for the Spark variant of the Galaxy S4
        * Groupon is holding a fantastic promotion on the Chromecast [Deal]
        * Samsung Galaxy Tab A 8.0 passes through TENAA
        * Fulfill your dream to be a stockbroker in The Firm, now on Android
        * Pointless gyrations: Comparisons that don't make sense
        * Google Play Service 7.3 update brings trusted places UI [APK Download]

        * Turn IKEA Cubbies into a Rustic Apothecary Chest
        * Guide to Manually Install Android 5.0 Lollipop OTA Update on AT&T LG G2 (D800)
        * Today's Best Deals: The Best Headphones, Chromecast, Swimsuits, & More
        * Geeky Gadgets Deals Of The Week
        * LinkedIn Elevate: This Week in Social Media
        * ViewSonic Releases A New 27-Inch 4K LCD Monitor
        * Lenovo’s New 17.3-Inch Full HD Notebook For Everyday Tasks

        * Bang-bang play at second looms large in rally
        * After slow start, Shark settles in with strong outing
        * Samardzija battles, but White Sox take walk-off loss
        * Tigers 2, White Sox 1: Duel gone awry
        * Tigers 2, White Sox 1: A duel gone awry
        * Samardzija battles, but White Sox take walk-off loss
        * Sale-Sanchez duel set for Comerica Park

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Chicago Schools Chief Steps Aside Amid Federal .....
        * Governor, others face backlash over disability .....
        * Makanda officials seek to reverse anti-union vote..
        * Rauner appoints hospital board member ahead of .....
        * The Watchdogs: CPS’ $228 million time bomb..
        * Tobacco Quitline closes amid grant suspensions..
        * State restores funding for select McHenry Count.....


        * Police: Man shot, killed by Chicago officer
        * Cardinal Francis George, key Catholic orthodoxy voice, dies
        * Attorneys seek dismissal of charges in Islamic State case
        * Funeral for Cardinal George set for Thursday
        * Attorneys seek dismissal of charges in Islamic State case
        * Reaction to the death of Cardinal Francis George
        * Ex-police commander accused of torture decries reparations
        * Lawyer to judge: New NCAA head-injury deal as bad as first
        * Chicago schools chief to take temporary leave amid probe
        * Burge expresses disbelief over torture victims compensation

        * Madigan forms committee to review Rauner budget activities
        * Bill expanding in-car blood-alcohol devices passes House
        * Bobcat hunting bill passes House by slim margin
        * Madigan forms committee to review Rauner budget actitivities
        * State restores part of funding cut from schools
        * Bill banning powdered alcohol cruises through Senate
        * Official state pie? Illinois House approves the pumpkin variety
        * Springfield branch of The Autism Program lays off five workers
        * Illinois medical marijuana coordinator stepping down
        * Advocate Health amends Illinois managed care contract, saving state $5.1 million

        * Boeing accused of unfair labor tactics as union cancels vote
        * Does Rauner know what voters want in budget battle?
        * How many volunteers does it take to put on a gala? 150
        * Ten questions for the executive director of Green City Market
        * CPS chief to step down for now amid federal probe


          * From the scene of downtown shooting: 'It looked so bad'
          * Pope Francis sends condolences for Cardinal George
          * At least 18 shot in city since Friday morning
          * Man, 29, killed in motorcycle crash on Kennedy Expressway
          * Man, 50, fatally stabbed in Humboldt Park restaurant
          * Police: South Shore man, 18, fatally shot after pointing gun at cops
          * Graduate donates $12 million to University of Illinois
          * Feds eye CPS records on education group backed by state's, city's elites
          * 3 charged with murder in 2012 slaying on Dan Ryan
          * From polio to priesthood: Francis George rose to lead hometown's Catholics


          * George helped 'make his people holy'
          * Cardinal Francis George helped 'make his people holy'
          * Schock donor sues ex-US congressman seeking reimbursement
          * Is that the Loch Michigan Monster lurking off Fullerton Beach?
          * Chicago's retired Cardinal Francis George dies at 78
          * Canine flu outbreak sickens hundreds of dogs in Midwest
          * Rauner's first 100 days: The politics of negotiating a budget
          * 'Right to Try' measure passes Illinois House
          * Chicago council approves $5M settlement in police shooting
          * Chicago schools chief requests temporary leave amid probe


          * Madigan forms committee to review Rauner budget activities
          * Heather Eagleton: Illinois should regulate step therapy treatments
          * Bill expanding in-car blood-alcohol devices passes House
          * Bobcat hunting bill passes House by slim margin
          * Our Opinion: Springfield's flood warning signs an investment in safety
          * Mark Denzler and Randy Nehrt: 'Buy North American' bill a bad deal for Illinois
          * Cinda Klickna: Time for Rauner to stop campaigning and start governing
          * Wendy DuBoe and Mark Burton: Don't shortchange Illinois' investments in human services
          * E.J. Dionne: Rubio's fountain of youth
          * State restores part of funding cut from schools


          * Daily Digest 4/18/15
          * Makanda officials seek to reverse anti-union vote
          * Luechtefeld, under deadline, faces dilemma: Move or not run again
          * Garrett Runyon The Roofing Dog 4-18-15
          * SIU chancellor forums to begin next week
          * Paul Ruedi with Ruedi Wealth Management
          * ‘Inflammatory’: St. Elizabeth’s plan to move puts Belleville hospitals at war
          * Debbie Moore with Express Employment Professionals 4-18-15
          * Money matters: The cost of the Carbondale mayoral race
          * Who lives here? April 18, 2015


          * UN: Assailants attack convoy, kill 2, wound 1 in north Mali
          * Tuktamysheva wins free skate, US claims World Team Trophy
          * Kirk gives national broadcast speech on Iran
          * Fed Cup: Kuznetsova gives Russia 1-0 lead over Germany
          * Indonesia suspends soccer association

          * After billions spent, Lockheed's F-35 figh...
          * Sandburg Team Wins Reserve Honors at 4-H R...
          * Report Finds Congresswoman Duckworth's Ame...
          * Congresswoman Duckworth Re-Introduces Legi...
          * Kirk raised $1 million; Duckworth $522,000
          * House committee passes provision changing ...
          * Exclusive: Sen. Mark Kirk: No more talking...
          * GOP Illinois Congressmen Get Poor Grades O...
          * Democratic Candidates Are Ready for Hillar...
          * NRSC blasts Duckworth on tax day

          * Durbin Support...

          * Survey: Most Americans agree death penalty......
          * GOP's Kirk: A nuclear Iran is the greatest......
          * Kirk: Iran Getting Nukes ‘The Greatest Cha......
          * Kirk gives national broadcast speech on Iran...

          * U.S. Census: Madison, St. Clair counties see reduction in population
          * Democrat operative St. Clair County judge to preside over Rauner-union lawsuit
          * Arn: NIU student group leader condemns veterans, military as "the real terrorists"
          * PAC Releases New Hillary Clinton Video Making the Case She’s Not ‘Trustworthy’
          * Democrat operative to preside over Rauner lawsuit
          * “It is my thought that the ‘middle class’ you speak of are the real victims of unions and the union officials that prey on them.”
          * Meet your new Chicago CPS CEO Jesse Ruiz.
          * Zalcman drops from 18th CD special election
          * Perkins: A Morale Dilemma
          * Urgent. Call now to protect class size limits for students with disabilities.


          * Illinoisans Receive Governor’s Volunteer Service Award - 6thAnnual Awards Ceremony to be Held on April 20thin Springfield
          * Get Smart About College Planning During Money Smart Week® - College Illinois!® 529 Prepaid Tuition Program offers tips to plan for--and afford--the cost of college
          * Motorcycle Season Revs Up, Riders Urged to “Gear Up-Ride Smart” - New Campaign Touts Staying Safe Through Proper Gear, Education
          * IDOT’s Operation Teen Safe Driving Program Announces 2014-15 Winning Schools - Innovative Program Helps Save Lives, Promotes Safe Driving Habits
          * State of Illinois Takes Action on Medical Cannabis Dispensary Applicants





              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller