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Quinn touts big unemployment news on Rauner’s day

Friday, Aug 15, 2014

* Gov. Pat Quinn announced some positive economic news yesterday during the State Fair’s Republican Day

The state Department of Employment Security says Illinois unemployment fell in July to 6.8 percent. It was the fifth straight monthly decrease in the state’s jobless rate.

The new employment numbers included, finally, a gain in manufacturing — though total jobs there remain lower than a year ago.

It prompted Governor Pat Quinn to try to rewrite what has been the established narrative about the State’s troubled economy as he seeks another 4-year lease in the Executive Mansion.

“Unemployment’s fallen from 9.2% last year to 6.8%. It’s the steepest decline since the 1980s. Last month employers created 11,200 jobs,” Quinn said.

* Greg Hinz

And even better, the decline now is being propelled not by people leaving the job force but by the creation of new jobs, with 11,200 positions added just in July. […]

The preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 7.1 percent in June to 6.8 percent in July, according to the Illinois Department of Employment Security. The state rate is still somewhat above the national figure of 6.2 percent, but the 0.6 difference is just a fraction of what it was a year ago.

Since July 2013, the Illinois rate has dropped an enormous 2.4 percentage points, from 9.2 percent to 6.7 percent, according to the federal data released by the state. That’s the biggest year-over-year decline since 1984, putting the unemployment rate just above the 6.8 percent level of August 2008. […]

According to the figures, derived from a different survey than the unemployment data, the state added 11,200 private sector jobs in the past month, and 35,600 over the past 12 months.

The July gains were widespread across various sectors, with professional and business services up 5,900, manufacturers adding 3,900 positions and construction 1,900 slots. Leisure and hospitality dropped 3,800 in the month.

According to the governor’s office, this is the lowest unemployment rate in six years. And you’d have to go back to 1984 to see such a sharp drop in the rate.

* The Rauner campaign response

“Celebrating today’s job numbers is like cheering a touchdown when you’re down 35 points with two minutes left,” said Mike Schrimpf, a campaign spokesman.

“Our state is still down thousands of jobs since the beginning of the year, we still have one of the worst unemployment rates in the entire country and thousands of Illinoisans have given up looking for work. On top of higher taxes, this means too many families continue to suffer under Pat Quinn. Thankfully, Pat Quinn’s time is almost up and his term in office can’t end soon enough for the working people of Illinois.”

* Related…

* VIDEO: Quinn announces state unemployment rate drops

* Illinois’ tax burden? Not so bad, according to new report

- Posted by Rich Miller        


42 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:15 am:

    Ugh, all these campaign spokesmen, local and national, have no game. Everything they say is so hackneyed and contrived. People don’t speak like that, which is the object of the exercise.


  2. - Wally - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:17 am:

    Sure, everybody believes those numbers. The number will drop and drop until the election because they will claim a large number of people have dropped out of the workforce. Wasn’t the number who dropped out in July the largest ever in the state.

    Sheesh!


  3. - DJ - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:17 am:

    I am no Rauner fan, but i thought the football reference was funny.


  4. - Sunshine - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:20 am:

    Do these numbers account for those no longer eligible for Unemployment Compensation and those who have simply stopped looking, or are taking ‘cash’ jobs?

    What sectors account for the increased jobs or does this report not consider that side of the equation?


  5. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:21 am:

    AAAAA!!! THE UNIONS AND LIBERALS ARE KILLING ILLINOIS!!!! JOBS ARE LEAVING THE STATE!!! OBAMACARE IS WIPING OUT AMERICA!!!!

    All kidding aside, it’s great to get good economic news about our state. We’ve taken a beating here in Illinois, some of it justifed and some of it not.

    As far as the political spin, can this help Quinn rebound? I don’t know, because we have the perception, and people push the narrative, that things are terrible in Illinois.


  6. - The Captain - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    Let’s onside kick! If history has taught us anything it’s that Chicago Bears legend Mike Brown will find some way to win this game.


  7. - Sunshine - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    Perhaps I should ask “which manufacturing sector and where is it located.” Might help to know where the opportunity for work is.


  8. - OLK 73 - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    Tax burden not so bad? I take it the author does not live in Cook County.


  9. - VanillaMan - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:24 am:

    Put this spin into a positive Quinn ad and get it on the tube today.


  10. - Stones - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:26 am:

    Good news but probably not good enough.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:26 am:

    The only way this helps Quinn is if voters and voting blocs can feel the uptick, and the Quinn Crew can tap into that believability.

    The only way this will work in refuting Quinn is if the voters and voting blocs can’t feel the uptick, and the Rauner Crew can tap into that believability.

    The Dopey spokesperson speak is not the way for either of those paths. Both Crews seem content to shovel… then to weave plain-speak, pithy, responses that have more real world words than buzz words.


  12. - Wally - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    Likely the labor participation rate in IL reflects, or is worse, than the national rate. Nationally, you have to go back to the late 70’s( the Jimmy Carter days) to see a LPR as low as now.

    It doesn’t surprise me one bit to see this news. Remember the October 2012 report when, all of a sudden, a HUGE number of people got jobs, dropping the UE number!


  13. - wordslinger - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:30 am:

    Wally’s all over the conspiracy. Because the most important thing is that his guy get elected, for some reason.

    I don’t think the economy dances to the state government tune, but I’d choke down a Rauner win for a 4% unemployment rate anyday. Wally, would you say the same about Quinn?


  14. - The Captain - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:30 am:

    “MIKE BROWN HAS DONE IT AGAIN!” Man, I love that video.

    Back on topic the problem with the Schrimpf quote is that he has something negative to say about positive job news. Your base may love that but it puts you on opposite sides of the issue for independents/undecideds who generally want to see the economy improve and think it’s a good thing. You don’t have to be unemployed to be happy about decreasing unemployment, if there are more jobs available it increases your chances of switching to a better paying job. Find something positive to say so you can align yourselves with all the people who see this as a positive development.


  15. - PublicServant - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:30 am:

    Of course Quinn touts the news, because it is good news for the state. These are new jobs being created and created across many sectors of the Illinois economy.


  16. - Anonymous - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    Wally, labor participation numbers are out there if you care to look. Illinois has and has historically had higher participation than the national average, which drives unemployment up.


  17. - walker - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:43 am:

    Wally: These numbers are straight — or at least they have never been shown to be partisan. Just read them and figure out if they mean anything to the election.

    My guess is that though the economy is in fact recovering, and there are a lot of data of all sorts that show that, it is too early for the public to feel better about it and have confidence in the future.

    Ironically, no matter what Quinn or Rauner did or will do, the next governor will take credit for the economic recovery as it becomes more widely felt.


  18. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    “I don’t think the economy dances to the state government tune”

    I read that in Wisconsin, consumer spending went down in part because of budget cuts. That might slow down an economy, and it flies in the face of those who need to push the narrative that government doesn’t create jobs.

    I think government may be overrated in its job-creation role, but when politicians make pledges, like Scott Walker did, to create 250,000 jobs, they own them.

    Illinois’ unemployment rate was recently lower than Michigan, a state some tout as business-friendly because of right to work.

    New Jersey, a state that gave out corporate tax breaks, has had worse one-year job gains than even Illinois.


  19. - Johnny Utah - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    We live in a unique state where we’ll still be talking about recovering from the Recession for another two years.

    In the first 66 months of Quinn, 10,600 net new jobs were created. In the 67th month, 10,300 were created. Which is news?

    This data release did not indicate whether or not people dropped out of the workforce. We will know on Monday.


  20. - JS Mill - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    I wonder what the numbers would look like if the thousands of workers that have been laid off due to the states failure to fund education were back at work? Not just teachers, other school support personnel and personnel at the businesses that supply services and materials to school. I would think that number would dwarf 11,200.

    =but I’d choke down a Rauner win for a 4% unemployment rate anyday=

    Me too for that matter. Good news is good news wither way.


  21. - walker - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    Wally: Yes you’re right that the way the unemployment rate is calculated, makes it hard to know what it really means in our economy. But it has not been miscalculated for partisan advantage.

    Pure job creation in the private sector is a better number to track, and it’s up. As is the general recovery in Illinois manufacturing, based on multiple metrics, which has been better than expected.


  22. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    In other good economic news, Chicago is rated high for growth in tech jobs and even beat Austin recently. THAT CAN’T BE TRUE!!! TEXAS IS THE JOB CREATION LEADER OF THE UNIVERSE!!!

    The article below touts the jobs as having helped the real estate market, and that cheaper real estate prices than the two coasts is great for business and future investment.

    http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140815/BLOGS11/140819897/chicagos-tech-job-growth-near-the-top-of-u-s-cities


  23. - Johnny Utah - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    A good month for payrolls, though lets wait and see on labor force dropouts. However, this is not something that should be a rarity.

    Even discounting gov’t layoffs we are the worst in the Midwest for recovery from the recession, and have the biggest jobs gap in the US.


  24. - Wally - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Thanks Johnny Utah. Were my numbers close for people dropping out of the labor force in the 2nd quarter?


  25. - Johnny Utah - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:12 am:

    Grandson,

    Chicago’s population is 3x that of Austin. We need to beat them on percentages, not absolutes.


  26. - Johnny Utah - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:39 am:

    Wally,

    The work force shrank by 46,000 in Q2, but that understates the dropout effect because the working age population grew by 12,000. You’re right to say that the dropouts in June were the largest in state history.

    Somewhere between 46,000-58,000 dropped out in Q2. Applying the state’s average labor participation rate, the total dropout in Q2 is about 53,500.


  27. - Johnny Utah - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    It’s worth noting that US congress cut extended benefits for unemployment to only 6 months about 6 months ago. So people are likely jumping into low-paid work and/or out of the workforce as a result, since the extended benefits are gone.


  28. - Wally - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:42 am:

    Thanks JU. There you go boys and girls. So much for a “conspiracy theory.”


  29. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    ===“Unemployment’s fallen from 9.2% last year to 6.8%. It’s the steepest decline since the 1980s. Last month employers created 11,200 jobs,” Quinn said.===

    In my circle of friends and family I can think of five people who have been out of work for long periods of time since 2008.

    Of those five, one gave up after three years of searching and is financially treading water sans unemployment for the next two years until they qualify for early Social Security, three ended up woefully underemployed after taking part time jobs and the last finally found a position in their field with a 30% pay cut.

    This is progress? Gov. Potatohead hasn’t got a clue, or he’s being deceitful - or both.


  30. - Johnny Utah - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    Wally,
    I have no idea if workers at BLS are rigging the numbers for Quinn as was alleged occurred for President Obama before the 2012 elections. No way for me to support or reject that and so I don’t consider it for analysis. Just reading the numbers as they are.

    -JU


  31. - Anonymous - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 10:54 am:

    I think the smart man should end up voting for the devil he knows!


  32. - frmrILSIP - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 11:01 am:

    If I am reading this right:

    http://www.ides.illinois.gov/LMI/Local%20Area%20Unemployment%20Statistics%20LAUS/ILChicagoMetroAreaUnemploymentRates/ILlaus-seasadj.PDF

    it indicates that according to our own data, the lower unemployment is due to people dropping out of the labor force, not increased hiring. We lost 1000 jobs from just a month ago and 17,000 people dropped out of the labor force.

    I hope that I am incorrect on this, but it certainly doesn’t look like anything worth celebrating, especially compared to previous years.


  33. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 11:27 am:

    I love Wally and the GOP.

    When the unemployment rate is high, it means everything.

    When the unemployment rate is dropping, it is meaningless.


  34. - Wally - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 11:32 am:

    YDD, have you researched the numbers at all??? Those facts and liberals, just a pesky thing!!!


  35. - Wally - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 11:48 am:

    and John Deere announces they will be laying off about 600 people throughout the Midwest, including in IL.


  36. - Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 11:50 am:

    Wally, have you watched commodity prices over the past couple of years?

    Look, I get that Illinois ain’t rolling in prosperity. But you’ve said your piece. Time to move along.


  37. - wordslinger - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    Wally Utah pines for the day when Blago’s leadership and vision were directly responsible for a state unemployment rate of 4.4%.

    Because that’s how that works.


  38. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 1:23 pm:

    frmrILSIP - your eyes do not deceive you, although the commonly used measure for “jobs created” is the seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll number.

    Basically, for every nonfarm payroll job created last month, nearly two people dropped out of our labor force.

    Nothing to see here, though. Time to pop the bubbly and celebrate according to Governor Quinn.


  39. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 1:42 pm:

    == Wally Utah pines for the day when Blago’s leadership and vision were directly responsible for a state unemployment rate of 4.4%. Because that’s how that works. ==

    College Democrats seem to agree with “Wally Utah” judging from the feeds on the side of the webpage

    == Great news! @QuinnForIL announced yesterday that under his leadership, unemployment dropped to 6.8%! | youtube.com/watch?v=PTfoXW… #TeamQuinn ==

    Because states and the policies established by state leaders have nothing to do with the shape of their economy. Right.


  40. - wordslinger - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    –Because states and the policies established by state leaders have nothing to do with the shape of their economy. Right.–

    FKA, what Quinn policies or actions would you say account for a 2.4 percentage point drop in unemployment in one year, the steepest such decline in 30 years?

    Can’t have it both ways, dude.


  41. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:17 pm:

    Wordslinger, I would suggest it is still only “one way” imho. The 2.4 percentage point drop in our unemployment rate has just as much, or more, to do with the drop in our labor force than it does an increase in jobs.

    The unemployment rate is not dropping so dramatically because things are suddenly “good” and we are adding jobs, but because things are still “not so good” as people are giving up and leaving the workforce.

    The unemployment rate increased when we lost many jobs and many people left the workforce during the great recession. That was much more the fault of Alan Greenspan and banksters than Pat Quinn.

    But the unemployment rate is coming down so dramatically now because despite creating some jobs we are suddenly losing large numbers of our labor force.

    Meanwhile, our current recovery is much slower than other states, and our unemployment rate is typically higher. That is not just Pat Quinn’s fault. It may be the culmination of many years of policies and many predecessors, but those choices have an impact.


  42. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Aug 15, 14 @ 4:31 pm:

    == It was the fifth straight monthly decrease in the state’s jobless rate. ==

    Look more closely at the monthly performance during that time.

    Mar - Labor Force: +7,148 Total Nonfarm Jobs: -3,700 Unemployment Rate: -.3
    Apr - Labor Force: -10,102 Total Nonfarm Jobs: -8,600 Unemployment Rate: -.5
    May - Labor Force: -14,234 Total Nonfarm Jobs: +600 Unemployment Rate: -.4
    Jun - Labor Force: -21,600 Total Nonfarm Jobs: +7,000 Unemployment Rate: -.4
    Jul - Labor Force: -17,100 Total Nonfarm Jobs: +10,300 Unemployment Rate: -.3

    There are some months we actually lost jobs and the unemployment rate still dropped.


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