* Be careful with this analysis. From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog…
Quinn, of Illinois, looked to be in the most danger of these three incumbents. My polling-based analysis in early summer had him with a 25 percent chance to beat Republican Bruce Rauner. At the time, however, I warned that Quinn probably had a better shot than early polls suggested. Quinn is a Democratic governor in a Democratic state. He won in 2010 despite an approval rating of 40 percent (at best) and with only about 15 percent of voters saying the state was heading in the right direction.
This year, Quinn’s approval rating is again between 35 percent and 40 percent. And again, he looks like he may win. His campaign has somewhat successfully painted Rauner as an out-of-touch millionaire. According to a recent Chicago Tribune poll, voters are more likely to say Quinn is in touch with people like them. They also view him as more honest than Rauner, even if they think Rauner can better handle the economy.
The fight between an incumbent people don’t approve of and a challenger with his own flaws has resulted in a close race, but one in which Quinn is a favorite. The FiveThirtyEight model gives him a 66 percent chance of winning.
They’ve got Quinn winning by just 1.3 percentage points.
* Quinn won four years ago 46.79 percent to 45.94 percent - a margin of just 0.85 percent.
Gov. Quinn will probably need to increase his 2010 percentage to win this year because there were three other candidates on the ballot last time who took a combined 7.27 percent of the vote. Unless the Libertarian can reach that number, Quinn has to better his numbers in the face of strong GOP headwinds and a gazillionaire opponent.
Either way, we’re talking little bitty numbers here. Tiny fractions of percentage points here and there can win this thing or lose it.
According to 2010 exit polling, Democrats made up 44 percent of the electorate, Republicans were 32 percent and indies were 24 percent. Needless to say, Quinn didn’t get many independent votes. He had to scramble like mad.
* There was a big spike over the weekend in Chicago, where early voters, absentee returns and grace period voting totaled 33,625. Lines were long everywhere. I figure another 6,000 more absentees will eventually be mailed in, based on past performance, but that could increase as well. So far, 39,638 more Chicagoans have voted before election day than in 2010.
But also keep in mind that some very GOP-leaning townships in suburban Cook are reporting huge early vote/absentee numbers, as are the collar counties. Downstate remains a question. Anecdotal info abounds. The unions in Madison and Rock Island counties did an extraordinary job with the early vote, for instance.
Again, a million different factors are at play here. FiveThirtyEight predicted Bill Brady would win last time with 51..5 percent of the vote to 44 for Quinn. His model had 86.7 percent confidence in 2010, but 66 percent today.
* Also, Sun-Times…
After delivering a speech to volunteers in Chicago, Durbin spoke of the Democrats’ bid to target so-called “drop-off voters” as well as the party’s field operation. The party identified 900,000 people who have voted in a presidential election but tend to skip off-year elections. Each of those voters were contacted three times, Durbin said.
Durbin said on Saturday alone, Democrats knocked on 142,000 doors statewide. […]
More than 430,000 people have turned out to vote early in Illinois, breaking a record set in 2010. Both Republicans and Democrats claimed the news was good for their side.
“We feel great. We (knocked on) 90,000 doors yesterday,” which is more doors than in 2010, Rauner campaign manager Chip Englander said. “We have the largest grassroots force that has ever been in Illinois. We have over 10,000 volunteers in every corner of the state. I think it’s been unmatched by anyone, ever.”
Yes, the Democratic program is much bigger than the GOP program, but that’s because the GOP program is brand new. It’s something they didn’t have in 2010.
…Adding… These are not Democratic bastions, to say the least…
In suburban Cook County, more than 169,000 voters have cast early ballots, Cook County Clerk David Orr said.
The busiest early-voting sites in suburban Cook County were Orland Township, with 8,222 voters, followed by Arlington Heights (7,740 voters) and Northbrook (6,289).
- Black Ivy - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:21 pm:
Rich, your bias is showing again. This piece smacks ofan effort to supresse turnout seeking to vote for Rauner. If Quinn is the destined winner no matter what, why vote, right? WRONG. I hope that Rauner proves you and all fo the other folks who have personal vendetta against Rauner (and now apparently his wife Diana) wrong. #democracyundeterred
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:23 pm:
=== This piece smacks ofan effort to supresse turnout seeking to vote for Rauner.===
You’ve officially lost your mind.
- Anonymoiis - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:24 pm:
Black Ivy:….huh?
Rich was cautioning against a prediction that Quinn would win, and basically saying it’s too close to know at this point.
- Snucka - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:29 pm:
=Either way, we’re talking little bitty numbers here. Tiny fractions of percentage points here and there can win this thing or lose it.=
Yea… that’s some textbook voter-suppression language right there.
- unspun - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:30 pm:
Black Ivy:
Did you read the other post from Rich today under the “polling schmolling” heading that quotes the Sun-Times saying that the race is “too close to call”? Seems a bit inconsistent with your assertion, eh? What kind of ivy are you smoking?
- haverford - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:30 pm:
That was adorable, Ivy.
- Demoralized - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:32 pm:
@Black Ivy:
Take a pill. Go lie down. And when you understand what bias, voter suppression, and polls are then come back.
Signed,
The rest of the sane world.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:32 pm:
Let’s move along. Back to the post.
- pundent - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:32 pm:
Black Ivy - I can’t see how this article suppresses voter turnout. Given your logic we should be talking about Gov. Brady’s re-election chances right about now.
- Anonymoiis - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:32 pm:
Not to mention his pointing out that Silver predicted Brady had an 86% chance of winning in 2010…meaning don’t necessarily take this prediction as Gospel
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:34 pm:
The polling and guessing is one thing.
The other, separate thing, is GOTV, uncontrolled turnout, weather, pockets of intensity…completely seperate.
This is going to be close.
Both sides, their internals, are dictating strategy up to, and including, to tomorrow, however, the actual situation of GOTV, et al, is far different that looking at data as the final product.
It’s up to both Crews…all 3 Crews…to get the final results that mirror polls, or don’t mirror polls…
That is why GOTV, as a collective whole, is ridiculously huge and unbelievably important.
End of story.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:34 pm:
There are numerous differences between Brady and Rauner. I am of the firm belief that, unlike Brady, Rauner will drag this out if he is behind by a fairly small margin (even up to 1%).
- pundent - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:35 pm:
Focusing on the topic at hand I’m inclined to believe Silver. But I’m scratching my head over how wrong he was in 2010. The early numbers in Chicago can’t be encouraging for Rauner. It puts even more pressure on his GOTV effort downstate which explains his recent travels.
- Coach - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:38 pm:
If Quinn wins I think it will be because of the Republicans that work for the State in central Illinois that are afraid of what Rauner might do to their future pensions. That is the word down here that Rauner might get 6 % less than Brady did. Have you heard anything like that Rich?
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:40 pm:
Prediction: The lawyers will be duking it out starting Wednesday. The results will show a razor-thin victory for Quinn, and Rauner’s folks will cry foul, allege some kind of shenanigans, and litigate. Rauner has poured too much money and ego into this thing to go quietly. He and his wife clearly feel that he’s entitled to the governorship, and damn anyone who dare stand in their way.
- OneMan - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:40 pm:
A an artistic take on how tomorrow is going to go…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YLaDD2s9xE
- MrJM - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:41 pm:
Pollsters are very good at predicting HOW people will vote. They’re not as good at predicting WHICH people will vote.
– MrJM
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:41 pm:
We knocked on 90,000 doors yesterday…
…75,000 doors, no one answered.
….of the 15,000 home, 14,400 had already made up their mind.
…we maybe picked up 200 votes.
- Downstate - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:42 pm:
The story on this year’s election will be written in the suburban counties.
Downstate, I think, will be similar to last time. Quinn isn’t anymore popular than last time. And I don’t recall Downstate voters ever “sitting out” a statewide vote over social issues. If there is a drop off of dissatisfied voters, downstate, I think it will cut across both candidates totals.
Hence, it comes down to the collar counties. Will they turn out in larger numbers for Rauner than they did for Brady. That, at the end of the day, is where this election will be won or lost.
- Aldyth - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:44 pm:
I daresay that when Quinn wins, it will be by a squeaker loud enough to be heard across neighboring states.
- Grandson of Man - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:44 pm:
I’m not sure we can compare 2010 to this year’s election. In 2010, Brady was ahead in the polls (whatever that was worth). This year Quinn has been ahead in the polls at times, including now, if polling aggregation is of any value.
I think we have to look at polling numbers and predictions for what they are now. Rauner could catch an underlying wave that multiple recent polls haven’t detected, but I’m guessing that would require a good number of conservative union members downstate who will vote for Rauner, along with social conservatives.
- Wordslinger - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:48 pm:
Three things that make you go “huh?”
–Quinn’s low approval rating, and the closeness of the race.
–In 2014, the idea that a GOP GOTV effort is “brand new.”
– In 2010, only 32 percent of Illinois voters self-identified as Republicans.
Put them all together, and I come to the conclusion that there is a significant and activist element in the Illinois GOP that has purposely positioned themselves to avoid any chance of responsibility or governorship at all.
The Angry Victim element. The ones that want to lose because they’re scared to win. Happy in their misery.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:48 pm:
===Have you heard anything like that Rich? ===
Yes, but who knows? Also Downstate losses can be regained in the suburbs where Brady did poorly.
- walker - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:49 pm:
Silver’s got both Scott Walker and Rick Scott losing. Christie might continue to be enmeshed in legal problems. Brownback could be a goner. Mitch Daniels has surely left the scene.
If Rauner wins, he could jump ahead of many former GOP hopefuls on the national scene.
We shall see.
- DandyDon - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:49 pm:
Remember Rick also said that there have been huge early/absentee voting in Republican townships in Cook and the collar counties this is not encouraging for Quinn. The higher the turnout state wide the better for Rauner. Democratic turnout is maxed out do to all the cook county workers and union members.
- Private equity - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:50 pm:
I bet rauner would give 10 million to trade places with Quinn right now. I think conventional wisdom was that Quinn would go into Election Day down in the polls.
- A.B. - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:53 pm:
I’ve been following Silver’s coverage pretty closely and I tend to agree with Rich here. I think that Silver’s expertise really sits in the national polling and prognostication and he tries to apply the same “model” to the gubernatorial races…but they aren’t quite the same. My “expert” guess….it’s going to be a long night on Tuesday.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 2:59 pm:
Brady’s people essentially refused to coordinate with the Victory push in September and October 2010. RNC operatives - combined with the NRSC and NRCC - had a great GOTV effort and it showed. Again - I give Rauner a lot of credit when it comes to this aspect of campaigning and staffing.
- Rhino Slider - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:00 pm:
900,000 Dems who vote in Presidential, but skip midterms were contacted 3 times.
WOW. WOW. WOW.
- Norseman - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:02 pm:
OneMan, was that Chip Englander talking in the last scene of the clip?
/s
- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:02 pm:
==Democratic turnout is maxed out do to all the cook county workers and union members. ==
Some people feel the success of the Democratic Party in 2008 & 2012 was driven by the ability of the party to bring more and more voters into the process.
People at the margins of society–and due to the economy there are many of these people–tend to vote Dem.
Some people even think the efforts of the GOP to make it harder for people at margins to vote is driven by partisan self-interest.
But Republicans are really, really smart. For example the guy who figured out that the pollsters were skewing polls for Obama. He was a genius.
If Republicans say a high turnout election is going to put Rauner in the Governor’s mansion, who am I to question it.
Bruce, you should definitely tell Diana to hire somebody to start figuring how to redecorate the Governor’s mansion.
The Democratic Party is just a bunch of union members and government employees who need to have their pensions cut so they can see how unimportant they really are.
- Hacksaw Jim - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:04 pm:
=== Remember Rick also said that there have been huge early/absentee voting in Republican townships in Cook and the collar counties this is not encouraging for Quinn. The higher the turnout state wide the better for Rauner. Democratic turnout is maxed out do to all the cook county workers and union members. ===
You couldn’t be more wrong. If you look at Illinois from a statewide perspective, it is a true blue state. In 2008 and 2012, in places that you wouldn’t expect to go Democratic, went Democratic. The problem is that many of these people who voted for Democratic candidates tend not to vote in midterm elections. Heightened turnout can only mean good things for Quinn - after all, you don’t think that we have had a incoming surge of Republican voters move into this State in the last two years do you?
- Siriusly - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:13 pm:
Nate Silver is totally wrong. The Quinn campaign has not “successfully painted Rauner as an out-of-touch millionaire.” It’s out-of-touch BILLIONAIRE thank you very much.
- Give Me A Break - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:28 pm:
Just got a voice mail message on our home number from the Rauner campaign. Message was, “This is what Democrat Senator Gary Forby has to say about Pat Quinn, (Forby’s voice: Pat Quinn does care about Southern Illinois). That had to have been lifted from a COGFA hearing.
Keep in mind, I live in Springfield with a 20 year history of my wife and pulling D ballots in the primaries. Not sure who they were targeted with the call.
- WootBaseball - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:29 pm:
Close, sure. In the end, Quinn wins by 3.
- WhoKnew - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:33 pm:
80% chance of rain in Chicago tomorrow. I’m thinkin’ that will be the greatest voter inhibitor of all! Have you seen some of the lines outside of Chicago Polling stations!!
- Fred - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:36 pm:
My gut is Quinn will do better downstate this year than he did four years ago, but that will be mitigated by Rauner doing better in the burbs than Brady did. To me, the results will largely hinge on African-American turnout. (That’s what Quinn disingenuous “four big black guys” radio ad is all about.) The other thing to watch: Grimm’s total. If he gets close to 5 percent, Quinn wins.
- Abe the Babe - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 3:45 pm:
==Gov. Quinn will probably need to increase his 2010 percentage to win this year because there were three other candidates on the ballot last time who took a combined 7.27 percent of the vote.==
True but keep in mind that 37% of the non-Brady/Quinn vote was for Rich Whitney who no doubt took more from PQ than Brady. Whitney got 100,000 votes in 2010. The majority likely will come back to Quinn than Rauner, IMHO…
- 618662dem - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 4:03 pm:
Race called by 10 pm, you read it here first.
- ThatGirl - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 4:11 pm:
The Wednesday afternoon post mortem on the Quinn campaign will likely show that it was the lack of urban black turnout that cost Quinn the election.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 4:12 pm:
Walker:
I believe Silver has Walker winning.
Brownback is Dead Man Walking.
Kansas is the big national story this year, but because of geography no one is talking about it.
- Anonymous - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 4:36 pm:
I totally agree with thatgirl
- Illinoisvoter - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 4:39 pm:
Good to see that magical thinking does not
have a political orientation. To see what’s
happening just watch a grade school at recess
or enter a suburban grocery store and notice
the burka’s and the two guys behind the cart
filled with food you can’t even pronounce or
the man standing in the parking lot who seems
to be living there. Chicago has a blue collar
now and Mr. Rauner’s attempt to reroute the
Republican Party is necessary but poorly executed.
Being both Kansas and NYC is one of the strengths
of our state even if it makes us appear more
fragile than our neighbors. Provisional ballots
and no peeking at the early votes are going
to make for a very long night so please don’t
forget to vote and find a comfortable seat.
- PolPal56 - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 4:39 pm:
Quinn will win.
My State senator and representative are also up for election.
All three voted for SB1 (pension theft).
The amount of stress I’ve been through in the last five years over this issue has been incredible. Like many retirees and current employees, I took everything that was said by politicians and the media very much to heart.
All year long I’ve struggled with how to vote. Quinn betrayed me, betrayed all State employees and retirees. But Rauner is by far the worse candidate for Illinois. But could I vote for Quinn, even feeling so personally betrayed?
It wasn’t easy. But based on what I know about Rauner, if I didn’t do what I could to prevent him from taking office and he won, it would be an even worse betrayal to myself and to most Illinoisans.
I really didn’t think I’d be able to vote Quinn. But I did, because in the end I judged Rauner to be too risky for the good of the State, my employer, and me.
And I know that if I can overcome my abhorrence at voting for Quinn, many other State retirees and employees who have been balking will ultimately, begrudgingly, and quickly like ripping off a bandaid, vote for Quinn as well.
- PolPal56 - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 4:44 pm:
Oh, I voted for “the other guy” against my state senator. My rep was unopposed, so I skipped that race.
- anon - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 4:46 pm:
PolPal, just because you are made a mistake doesn’t mean others will make the same mistake.
- MrJM - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 5:11 pm:
“The Wednesday afternoon post mortem on the Quinn campaign will likely show that it was the lack of urban black turnout that cost Quinn the election.”
Maybe, but in Chicago, early-voting figures were up 35 percent from four years ago – from 112,000 to 151,000. http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/11/03/chicago-cook-county-set-records-for-early-voting/
Those aren’t all white folks.
– MrJM
- OutSider - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 5:21 pm:
It is all about the pension…..Quinn wins, but barely.
- Steve - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 5:30 pm:
The thing to remember is this probably will be a close election for Pat Quinn. Nate Silver can only do so much will polls in Senate races and Governors races. Nate is great at predicting electoral votes because the polls are much better. Voter knowledge about Senator and Governors races is much different than Presidential races. Nate Silver may be the best there is, but even he is honest about his limits in non-Presidential races. Silver had Brady winning last time. Silver had Harry Reid losing. However, Silver has made a lot of good calls. In close elections accurate predictions are far from scientific.
- Just Thinking - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 6:10 pm:
Its about the woman were they go so does the winner
- AlabamaShake - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 6:46 pm:
**Nate Silver… national model… My “expert” guess….it’s going to be a long night on Tuesday.
**
All Nate Silver does is take an aggregation of the polls, throws in some other facts, and spits out a prediction. Remember, Silver predicts a Quinn win by just 1% - that means it will be a long night. The 66% likely victory just means that when 66 out of 100 times, Quinn wins based on the polls and related factors.
**Silver’s got both Scott Walker and Rick Scott losing. **
Silver has Walker winning by 2.4%, and a 75% chance of winning.
- DandyDon - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 6:51 pm:
You couldn’t be more wrong. If you look at Illinois from a statewide perspective, it is a true blue state. In 2008 and 2012, in places that you wouldn’t expect to go Democratic, went Democratic. The problem is that many of these people who voted for Democratic candidates tend not to vote in midterm elections. Heightened turnout can only mean good things for Quinn - after all, you don’t think that we have had a incoming surge of Republican voters move into this State in the last two years do you?
If you look at Rich post he said the heavy voting was in GOP leaning townships. I saw a comment from David Orr and he said there was heavy voting in Orland Township, Northbrook and Arlington Heights. None of these areas have a significant minority population. Most of these voters are white and would seem to benefit Rauner.
True in the country as a whole higher voter turnout helps democrats because it brings out more minority voters who tend to vote for democrats.
- Nathan R. Jessup - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 8:11 pm:
Not sure who will win but rauner did what needed to be done. He campained in the city and competed for the blackvote and also worked hard for the womens vote.
the election sshouldn’t. Be close but quinn has make some deep wounds with is negative ads.
rauner should win by 4%