Economic trouble ahead?
Monday, Mar 2, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The U of I’s Jorge Chapa takes a look at Illinois’ demographic trends…
Sometime in the 2000s, California became a majority-minority state. Sometime in the 2020s, Illinois likely will do the same.
At first glance, it appears majority-minority status is a long way off for Illinois. The latest U.S. Census data show that 63 percent of Illinoisans are non-Latino white, 30 percent are African American and Latino, 5 percent are Asian and 2 percent are Native American.
But the major differences in the age distributions of these groups will accelerate change. Whites are much older than any other racial group. For example, Illinoisans aged 65 or older are 80 percent white, while only 17 percent of these seniors are African American or Latino. In contrast, Latinos and African Americans make up almost 40 percent of the Illinois population under age 25.
This age-race shift was just as pronounced in California — back in the 1980s. Today, Latinos and African Americans make up 45 percent of the Golden State’s population and a majority of the younger age groups. Illinois appears well on its way to joining California — and Texas, New Mexico and Hawaii — as a majority-minority state.
* And that makes him worry about our future if things don’t change soon…
As the age-race shift progresses, Latinos and African Americans will make up a much larger proportion of the workforce. For a variety of reasons, to date, neither group has attained the education levels of whites. For example, white adults are more than twice as likely to have graduated college as African Americans or Latinos. Not coincidentally, the per capita income of whites is at least twice that of African Americans and Latinos.
If such differences persist, they will have a significant negative effect on the Illinois economy and state budget.
As white baby boomers age, they will place a tremendous demand on pensions and other senior support programs. If the prime earning population is made up of more minorities, and if they continue to earn less money, the economy will be depressed and government revenue will decline.
The state of Illinois faces a $100 billion shortfall in funding for public pensions and needs tens of billions more for infrastructure, education and other investments. Where will this money come from if a large part of our future workforce has low levels of education and lower earnings?
Discuss.
- Anonin' - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:18 pm:
Yawnin’
- Sir Reel - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:27 pm:
Grim news.
First, we need a progressive tax structure.
Second, we need to find ways to make Illinois more attractive as a place to live and work. I think that involves more than low taxes.
- RNUG - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:27 pm:
Pretty much old news from various demographic studies over the past decade or so with a slightly different twist.
- vole - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:34 pm:
“Why I Hope to Die at 75″
An argument that society and families—and you—will be better off if nature takes its course swiftly and promptly.
by Ezekiel Emanuel (Rahm’s brother by the way)
http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/09/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/
Think about it. It is quite relevant to this post.
- illlinifan - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:42 pm:
Demographers have been telling us this for a while…so rather than dooming this to low wage, low education populations, we need to put emphasis on increasing education opportunities and mentoring minority youth to pursue higher skill and higher education jobs.
We will see how Ezekiel feels when he is 75. It sounds something like all of the baby boomers thinking there was no life after 30.
- Lil Squeezy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:44 pm:
Now I could subscribe to trying to party like I am 25 when I turn 75. That would obviously decrease mortality rates, but we would need to see some changes to the criminal code. Nobody wants to see Grandpa in jail.
- Wordslinger - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:48 pm:
Meh, another Malthusian doomsayer who presumes his selection of facts is comprehensive and unalterable, and that we’ve reached the end of history, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
In his time, Malthus’ set of “facts” and arithmetic were correct as well. Yet here we are.
Warren Buffett did his annual thing the other day. Always a tonic to the chronic bleatings of the Eyeores. He’s made one of the world’s great fortunes on sober optimism.
- Thoughts - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:49 pm:
RNUG is right…mostly a rehash. I guess he’s saying employers will leave because they won’t find enough quality job candidates. I don’t know…the employers in downtown Chicago pull in entry level college grads from all over the midwest, not just Illinois.
- vole - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:49 pm:
Well, if Florida goes under water, there could be a lot of Jimmy Johns migrating back to balance things out a bit. But, then again, Rauner’s 23,000 acre ranch in Montana could hold a lot of these elite refugees. Be interesting to see where Rauner’s pension benefits end up.
- walker - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:50 pm:
Been reading similar for thirty years. We figure out ways to succeed.
- jazzy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:50 pm:
Old news, yes, I guess the best thing going for us…as the USA becomes more a “service oriented ” society the need for higher education will not be in high demand. As I remember this started in the 80s. A lot of people I knew could not find jobs in their field after college. Worked a lot of retail jobs. Lots of people decided not to have kids…kids cost! Sad where our country is going. The uneven wealth distribution will only make this worse as time goes by.
- Ghost - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:52 pm:
This reminds me of the old systems of studies based on the size on ones skull, i forget the name. That system suffered from many of the logical falicies this one does.
That said, it seems we need to focus on higher education opportunities for all, despite the gop assuranve that too many people are getting college degrees and we are running out of blie collar workers.
- A guy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:53 pm:
Not sure what there is to discuss. This is exactly what’s happening. Higher Education needs to take on a higher premium in the AA and Latino Communities. With the costs rising so much, it’s that much more difficult for them. Having been to a few commencements at U of I over the past few years, it’s not hard to see that few AA and Latinos are among the graduates, but a lot of Asians are. That’s just one school, but it has looked the same at a few of the others I’ve been to as well, ISU, NIU, DePaul. Even UIC, which had many more AA and Latino grads than the others, but a lot more Asians.
- vole - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 2:53 pm:
Word, yeah, whistle past Malthus’s grave. We are 7 billion and counting, the world is going to hell, yet techno optimists tell us we’ll all be prosperous when we grow to 9 billion.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:07 pm:
white baby boomers an endangered species?
- VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:08 pm:
Its basic human nature to look into the future and only see problems ahead. Which is quite odd since we can more easily see the past and recognize how badly we predict the future.
I suspect that professors who forecast a dim future have a more profitable career, than professors who forecast a bright future - but then, it is a bit difficult to find a professor who forecasts a bright future.
Now - today on another post, we have pretty much cast Detroit as Chicago’s future aside. I agree with that.
So, I’m not going to sit here and be worried over this either.
- Precinct Captain - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:08 pm:
Vole, genocide is not the answer.
- Wordslinger - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:17 pm:
Vole, only because Malthus got it completely wrong. For a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that he didn’t have a crystal ball to see that all knowledge and progress didn’t end in 1798.
And please, don’t scare me with big numbers.
Guy, thanks for chiming in on your research on the ethnicity of people you see as a serial commencement attender in all corners of the state. Adds a lot to the discussion, just like “school violence seems to be going down,” whatever
- illinoised - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:18 pm:
Then do what California did: create a progressive income tax. Cali has four high income tax brackets ($250K, $300K, $500K, and $1,000,000) and is now in the black. Illinois is doomed to insolvency if it stays with the archaic and unfair and regressive flat income tax.
- Steelerfan - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:28 pm:
Rehash? Yes, and hopefully it will continue to be rehashed until we grasp deeply our interdependence and interconnectedness. Then perhaps it will inspire us to make a priority of ending poverty, discrimination and fear of the “other.”
- Jerome Horwitz - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:30 pm:
@Ghost Phrenology?
- MrJM - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:31 pm:
I’ll bet if I just wait a minute, Wordslinger will say it better than I would anyway…
Yep.
– MrJM
- Wordslinger - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:36 pm:
Campo’s thesis relying so heavily on skin color is simplistic, too.
As he notes, California and Texas have been majority-minority states. They’re also the largest and wealthiest states in the nation. Are they in the ditch, too?
And why does he throw New Mexico and Hawaii in there? Were they like Hinsdale in the past, or something?
The whtitiest white-white states are Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, West Virginia, Kentucky, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota.
Outside the Bakken range, are their prospects whiter, I mean brighter, due to racial composition?
Incomplete, professor.
- A guy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:48 pm:
MrJM, I now understand why you limit yourself to 1 line.
- anon - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:53 pm:
Anybody over 50 realistically knows this state isn’t coming back. Its largest city and economic machine is in terrible condition. The entire state is burdened with massive debt.
As people hit retirement age, they will move to other states and IL will find it difficult to attract and retain young talent. Major corporations may not move their HQ’s but they will move more of their operations to places like Texas.
- A guy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 3:53 pm:
Had to search for this, but I do remember reading it. Spend a little time with it Sling:
http://www.asanet.org/journals/soe/OCT13SOEFeature.pdf
- Distant Viewer - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:04 pm:
One of the big premises here is that Latinos and African Americans will always be poorly educated, under-skilled, and poorly paid. It’s not an assumption without merit given structural issues. All the more reason for whites to demand more equitable funding for education and job training ASAP. They’re retirements depend on it.
- Distant Viewer - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:05 pm:
Typing too fast. Should have been “their” not “they’re.”
- Wordslinger - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:06 pm:
Guy, who knew you were a deep diver into academic papers published by the American Sociological Association? Keep those greatest hits coming.
- chi - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:06 pm:
Chapa might have a chicken and egg problem, too. To the extent that minorities don’t have good jobs right now Because they are minorities, the tables will turn, so to speak, when they become the majority.
- mcb - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:06 pm:
Race is the red herring that makes everybody miss the key to the demographics.
Look at birth rates by income groups.
The poorer groups are outbreeding the wealthier ones. Just so happens that minorities make up a disproportionate number of the poor. That’s the real issue, a poor population without degrees or an emphasis on their kids attending college, they are growing to a larger percentage of the population.
- MrJM - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:14 pm:
A guy,
Do you think that scholarly article somehow supports your position that “AA and Latino Communities” insufficiently value higher education?
‘Cause it don’t.
– MrJM
- mcb - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:18 pm:
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d12/tables/dt12_236.asp
and
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/race-gap-narrows-in-college-enrollment-but-not-in-graduation/
” Indeed, when it comes to college enrollment, the income gap is significantly larger than the racial gap.”
- ZC - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:38 pm:
A lot of the other states being thrown into the mix of the argument above, however, either have a) relatively better-funded state retirement systems and / or b) a progressive tax system to pay for those systems over the heavy retirement years ahead and / or c) a state constitution that allows for the state to trim some of the future benefits to pay for the human capital / training of the next generation to come.
IL is 0 for 3 here, so I’m not sure how far it goes to say, “Ah look at Texas and California, we’re not so bad off here.” They have recourses to fall back on that IL (currently) doesn’t.
- A guy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:57 pm:
=== MrJM - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:14 pm:
A guy,
Do you think that scholarly article somehow supports your position that “AA and Latino Communities” insufficiently value higher education?===
No. I think it offers Sling some background on School violence in Chicago though. That was part of his smartie pants reply you enjoyed so gleefully.
- A guy - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:58 pm:
=== Wordslinger - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 4:06 pm:
Guy, who knew you were a deep diver into academic papers published by the American Sociological Association? Keep those greatest hits coming.===
A lot of people knew Sling. Just not you.
- The Whole Truth - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 5:00 pm:
I think ZC has it exactly right, and it’s more than even those three issues they have going for them as compared to Illinois.
- Our side the box - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 5:53 pm:
Why couldn’t the state simply put print 100 billion in bonds using the average price of the last bond sale and put the bonds in the pension fund then just pay the interest with cash.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 5:55 pm:
Well, Illinois does have a nice supply of fresh water, many acres of productive black dirt, and located in a transportation choke point. If nothing else, us survivors of all races who choose to be here could all be the troll under the bridge.
- Rat Race? What's that?? - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 5:56 pm:
Make our welfare system just slightly less attractive than those of Indiana, Missouri and Wisconsin. Race to the bottom, but with welfare “benefits.”
- Sunshine - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 5:57 pm:
What if the professor looked back just after 1945 and saw all those uneducated soldiers and sailors coming home. Few had a college degree but most had good work ethic, strong family values, allegiance to God and country. Much like a lot of Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks I know.
‘White’ America isn’t the America I grew up with. I grew up with an America full of many, many other races. I for one am confident we will do just fine.
Illinois has problems that aren’t particularly due to race. Our problem is corrupt politicians, special interest groups, and a lot of folks raised at the giveaway trough. Improve education, incent people to work, and wean them off handouts, and we’ll do well.
- Federalist - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 6:27 pm:
Nothing new. Increasingly we are a demographically 3rd world country and state. This is not due to immigration per se. But it is due to massive immigration of impoverished people who do not have the skills when they come here. This leads to problems not only for them but for their children in far too many cases.
It is not the 19th C., many jobs require more skills and things change fast.
This problem is accelerated due to massive illegal immigration.
But it is not PC to say this so everybody just pretends otherwise.
Those immigrants who do come here with skills are a great asset and they will do well.
But you can be assured that there will be no thoughtful immigration reform at the national level. The Democrats want a dependent poor class to vote for them the Republicans want never ending waves of cheap labor.
I am not predicting Armageddon on the economic front but I do look for a less rosy future and extreme stresses on the social and economic front.
- Wordslinger - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 6:53 pm:
Federalist, I’m with you.
It’s time those Irish, Italians, Poles, Slavs, Lithuianans, Germans, Greeks et al went back where they came from.
Your arguments were made against all of them at one point. Everyone had a turn in the barrel.
Those here illegally under civil, not criminal law, are working. They’re certainly not voting, unless you believe crazies.
Mexicans, of course, could argue that a big healthy chunk of the United States was stolen from them — as it was, as Mr. Lincoln would tell you.
I’d suggest it’s a sign of health for a society when people are trying to get in — which, since the crash in 2008 they are not in any large numbers. The net immigration/emigration has been in decline.
- Federalist - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 7:44 pm:
@ Wordslinger,
It is time to have a rational immigration policy to reflect today needs. I could give a rat’s rear about the past as it is over and done. Importing huge number of unskilled impoverished people is a stupid national policy and you should know it. Just as exporting our jobs to 3rd world countries is a national disaster. Get beyond the traditional Huffington Post, PC mentality and focus on NOW and the FUTURE.
As to illegals voting. Probably happens, not much. Irrelevant to any point I was making. But you had to predictably drag it up. And yes all ‘minorities’ will vote for Democrats particularly if they are poor whether legal or not. Doubt that? Of course you don’t!
As to us taking over Mexican land. Sure did. The Spanish took it from the Indians. And various tribes took land from each other. And the Visgoths took over land in present day Romania and later Spain and on and on and on.
You are smart enough to know that. But obviously you want to throw out a red-herring, spacious argument to confuse the issue. Want to give it back to them? Do you subsequently think that because of that that all Mexicans have the right to come here and stay? I suppose you would exclude all the illegals and even legal immigrants from other nations and apply it only to Mexicans.
I read your comments. You obviously are not stupid. But your rebuttal is rather pathetic.
I will stand by what I said. We need to devise an immigration policy that is beneficial to the U.S. citizenry. But that won’t happen because Democrats want an dependent poor population that will vote for them and Republicans want cheap labor. Any part of that you don’t understand. I am reasonably positive you know that very well.
So I will stick to my original points and not get dragged away into side issues that add more heat and very little light. I am smarter than that and don’t forget it.
- Ljt75 - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 7:54 pm:
@Sunshine
Rauner is probably one of the most narcissistic people I have ever seen in my life. He needs to realize the world doesn’t revolve around him. He talks about “empowerment zones” and “bad people”. He forgets to look in the mirror. How about we just pass a state law banning all contributions and requiring public officials to disclose all of their related tax information? He is a prime example of pay-to-play politics. Why not make him get drug tested every time he signs a law?
- Mitch59 - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:12 pm:
Doom and gloom everywhere!
- 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 9:46 pm:
===I will stand by what I said. We need to devise an immigration policy that is beneficial to the U.S. citizenry. But that won’t happen because Democrats want an dependent poor population that will vote for them and Republicans want cheap labor. Any part of that you don’t understand. I am reasonably positive you know that very well.===
Federalist, when you type that bs after saying, demographically the US is a 3rd World country, you forfeit the right to be taken seriously. Take it back to your dorm room and argue with the sophomores on your floor.
And ask for a refund on the tuition because clearly you aren’t learning much.
- Arizona Bob - Monday, Mar 2, 15 @ 11:21 pm:
I don’t care so much about the race of the citizens. I’m more concerned about the culture under which they live. When loads of European Jewish immigrants came to this country in the early 20th century, they brought in a culture of valuing education, investment, and unwillingness to let their family down. They prospered at incredible rates and brought tremendous growth to the US. The same happened with Asian culture brought this country, as well as the “moving forward” of the Irish and Eastern European communities.
At one time before the 1960s, African Americans were becoming better educated and prosperous, and still had largely strong nuclear families. Then POTUS Johnson’s “Great Society” programs devastated that community and virtually destroyed successful nuclear family culture.
I’ve known too many people from these minority groups not to believe if the prevalent culture in these communities becomes more conducive to building stable, two parent families, personal, state and national prosperity will be assured. Of course this will mean the Democratic Party will be decimated by the loss of dependency and entitlement, but I’ll shed few tears over that.
BTW, my wife of 27 years (first and only) is a Hispanic immigrant whose parents only had fifth grade educations, but they VALUED the opportunity for education this nation provided. They came here legally, BTW. Serious catholics, with all that brings. All the kids in her family got degrees in nursing or business, and every family legally became multi millionaires. All the kids in the next generation either graduated from business school or are on track to do so. No out of wedlock births, drug abuse, or criminal problems.
That’s what happens when there is a functional culture of success in the families regardless of race or ethnicity.
The challenge in Illinois is not diluting minority demographics, but ensuring that the culture in families of those demos is created for economic and social success. IMHO the biggest challenge to this is the counterproductive entitlement culture created by liberal Illinois governments, but, sadly, I see that changing little given the present political power structure in Illinois.
There’s still an ember of hope in Illinois, but that ember is quickly dying….
- See the forest - Tuesday, Mar 3, 15 @ 5:52 am:
Illinois has great natural resources (fresh water, some of the best soil in the world), but fails to invest in its futures with its regressive income tax.
California & Minnesota boosted/implemented a progressive tax structure, and they’re doing far better than Brownbackistan (KS) & Walkerworld (WI).
A progressive income tax, along with a tiny financial transaction tax on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange would go a long, long way.
Illinois is also home to 18 billionaires and many more millionaires. Let them pony up to pay back their debt to society and to the multitudes of people whose backs they stepped on to make their billions.
P.S. And stop steering hundreds of millions of dollars to low-performing, unaccountable charter schools.
- low level - Tuesday, Mar 3, 15 @ 6:27 am:
Just like the CS-T editorial yesterday (Chicago has pension problems = Chicago will become Detroit) this analysis is so highly flawed I’d almost expect a 16 year old to do better.
Just like California, IL has tremendous resources, institutions and yes - a highly educated population, whatever color you happen to be.
Interesting also, California raised taxes on the super wealthy and the state is in much better shape now than it was when Arnold left.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 3, 15 @ 7:55 am:
If there are more African-Americans and Latinos, they’ll be filling the well-paying jobs now held by whites.
- anon - Tuesday, Mar 3, 15 @ 8:16 am:
low level—-how is the CA pension situation? How many billions are due?
See the forest—-So you don’t think rich people pay a lot of taxes? Man, get a grip and do a little research!!
- AnonymousOne - Tuesday, Mar 3, 15 @ 8:20 am:
==let them pay back their debt to society…and people whose backs they stepped on==
Don’t know if I’d look at it as a debt to society…for all of us who went to school and got a job as a result of our education, we all are in debt….but what riles me is that the people who have done particularly well financially will be the absolute first to trash those who got them where they are (basically those who educated them). Having a friend in a place like this, her answer is that she achieved her success IN SPITE of her education. Nice way to duck out on what others have contributed. It’s that attitude that seems prevalent. Maybe a way to excuse their greed in not paying back?
- Mittuns - Tuesday, Mar 3, 15 @ 8:35 am:
Union busting and 30% higher education cuts sounds like a surefire path for future prosperity to me.
- illlinifan - Tuesday, Mar 3, 15 @ 8:48 am:
anon…rich people pay a lot in taxes based on the numbers but as a percentage of their gross income what they pay is often less than the rich. A person who earns 56 million a year and pays 5 million in taxes only is paying 10% of their income in taxes. A person who earns $100,000 a year but pays $60000 in taxes is paying 30% of their income. 5 million is lot to those of us who will never see this kind of money but will not significantly change the lifestyle of but losing $30,000 of your income to taxes when you earn $100,000 has a more significant impact.
- anon - Tuesday, Mar 3, 15 @ 9:11 am:
illinifan—and you think someone making 56 mil a year pays 5 mil in taxes? If it is dividends, they would pay 15% but that is how the law is set up. Someone how you just described pays a lot of state tax and they buy a LOT of goods and services.
Do you think they live in a big house and have a big real estate bill, of which more than 50% goes to local school districts. Do they typically give a lot to charity? You bet they do.
Don’t be envious of someone who makes a bunch of money, they are economic drivers. You should be worried about people on the public dole, some who should be there and need to be there, but a lot who choose to be there.