Ok, no one has seen ANY of the budget stuff, but I digress…
I can’t see any of the budgetary parameters as they seem to be now, and after the FY2015 Fix - “unfix”, the idea Rauner, for the Rauner Budget and the Rauner Cuts getting 60/30 in the short term, or magically getting 71/36 before August 14th.
There’s nothing to vote for now, can’t get the 60/30, and when it gets to 71/36, looking at it today, not seeing those numbers hit on a phantom Rauner Budget.
I think the Governor has found himself too far out over his skis to stop himself from shutting down government “until the U-Turn Agenda passes.” The problem is, his U-Turn Agenda will never pass, and he seems to be the only person in Springfield who doesn’t fully grasp that yet.
I think the sort of high drama of starting a new fiscal year without a budget serves some demented purpose for the Governor. Lord knows what, but I think he wants to create the kind of atmosphere that launched Scott Walker into the hearts and minds of the National Plutocrats’ Party. I really don’t see any other answer.
Unless the General Assembly cuts him out of the process and passes its own budget, I really don’t see Rauner coming back to reality in time to get a budget in place by July 1.
OW, I am not sure what you mean “those are the windows”. In the whole scheme of things, my point is not a big one. But to clarify, what’s the difference between “first payroll checks of FY 2016″ and “First payroll of FY/ 2016″?
Voted First payroll of FY/ 2016 - August 13 (Governor’s Day at Illinois State Fair-
As much as he likes the spotlight, it seems that he would try to push his Turnaround as long as possible and then (drumroll) celebrate (or rant some more) on Guv’s Day. However, if furloughs and lay offs ensue when FY 16 starts with no budget, it could be a very interesting State Fair season especially for the Dept. of Ag staff who are stretched to their limits anyway. Phil Nelson may have to roll out some of his Farm Bureau buddies to work the Ag Tent.
===If there is no bipartisan agreement on revenue, Democrats will pass a doomsday budget.===
You aren’t paying attention to MJM running Rauner Agenda bills to Zero votes.
That is about Rauner owning the process, and being reminded Rauner Cuts, Rauner Budget, Rauner Contract are his, like all governors before and will be after him.
No way will Dems vote for Draconian cuts.
Besides, the $26 million Good Friday Massacre also would be nullified by a Denocratic budget passed by those parameters.
- Hoping for Rational Thought - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:50 pm:
@ August 10th is a school aid payment. Having employees scream is one thing but when school districts start hurting
Didn’t vote, because I don’t know if the dems are just gonna do it on their own. They will not pass a “doomsday budget.” But they could certainly work alone to figure this budget out, since they sadly appear to be the only adults at the table. Again, very sad that they are considered the adults. If they try to work with the gov to get a legit budget passed… well then I would vote August 14 or beyond.
It has to be by the end of the month. It would be horrible for Gov Rauner’s first session to be a failure. I’m sure deadlines mattered in his corporate world and he should expect no less in his role as state CEO.
I voted “First payroll of FY/ 2016 - August 13 (Governor’s Day at Illinois State Fair”
Given what we know about these cast of players we’ll need extreme frustration to force people to give up on their agenda items/linkages and open up to some closure compromise. I think this will come right before the fair.
Nick Naylor: The first payroll checks of FY16 are pay for work done in FY15. The first checks for work done in FY16 come out in July or August or something.
I also am going with May 31st based mostly on my gut feeling, which tells me that for everything Bruce Rauner does or doesn’t know about the process, he has heard of the Overtime From Hell and knows he does not want to be the one to bring that back.
- The Colossus of Roads - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:16 pm:
Governor’s day at state fair. He can sign it with a cardboard cut-out of Meatloaf!
Rich– For constitutional office employees and general assembly employees, courts, & dept of Revenue employees - they are paid on the 15th and last day of each month (see page 10 of the link you posted). They are paid on July 15th for time worked between July 1 and July 15th. Some other agencies are paid on different schedules - as is reflected in the other pages of the link you posted. But, July 15th is the first payday of FY16.
- facts are stubborn things - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:27 pm:
I think Rauner is willing to deal with a crisis and see if out of that crisis he can get some of the things he wants.
Moody’s points the way to a “Doomsday” budget that does not include draconian cuts to social services:
=== Our A3 rating on the State of Illinois reflects the state’s broad legal powers and fiscal tools to address its budget challenges, including pensions. Among the state’s options are reversing its recent income tax cuts and reducing revenue sharing with local governments. We note that the state itself also retains the option of shifting pension costs to lower levels of government, notably public universities and school districts (other than CPS), the pension liabilities of which are currently funded by the state. ===
I said option 3 as I have been down this road before. A handful of payrolls will be payable on 7/15 with a few more everyday. Several years ago the Comptroller’s Office requested a judge, in a neighboring county to Springfield ,to issue an order to pay employees without an appropriation in place which was granted. Since Medicaid is a Federal program, a judge will order it to be paid also. Kind of creates some messy accounting the IOC has to clean up but they have had to deal with this before.
Agree with 1776. Dems will pass a budget. Rauner will veto it. We’ll spend a few weeks in June with the leaders and staff discussing and lawmakers in their districts, then come back in July. Think something will get passed then.
- Robert the Bruce - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:00 pm:
Voted Aug 14-
A game of chicken on who has to develop and commit to voting for a balanced budget.
Voted August 14-depends on who blinks first, and Madigan won’t…If Rauner ever figures out what Blago never did, it might be earlier…
- Don't Worry, Be Happy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:22 pm:
Third week of September. The need to end the Chicago teachers strike will be the catalyst for the grand deal that brings to a close both the session and the strike.
Voted May 31st because I don’t think Rauner will want to do a government shutdown - the public will blame him and only him. But then again, if he’s as much of a hardcore Randian that some say, maybe his version of “Shaking Up Springfield” is making it look like he’s doing something by making noise during the summer… Popcorn is ready, now on with the show!
Would like to see May 31st, but have a feeling it will be mid-July or later. There just doesnt see any signs of bipartisanship and too many signs of high drama.
In spite of making CapFax my daily read over the years I just was throwing in the wind Aug. 14th for no particular reason. Here’s hoping I’m wrong because most people want hope to see Illinois return to the right track.
While I think some kind of continuing budget resolution will get passed before then, I don’t think we will have the final budget until sometime in October. I think it’s going to take that long to work out a “grand deal” with some minor cuts, dedicated pension funding (from various sources, including new taxes and the TRS “normal cost” shift) that can’t be easily diverted by the GA, some revenue to hold various federally funded programs mostly harmless, and a partial bail-out for Chicago teachers, police and firefighters in the form of a block grant to the city of Chicago.
It will take until October for all the stars to align properly …
It will be late, because it will take that long for everyone to come to their senses. It may even require a disaster or two before Rauner gets it, but he isn’t alone, Democrats aren’t going to own the hard cuts and revenue increases by themselves.
Rauner’s experience in business in part is to go into troubled companies, declare bankruptcy and cash out after some sort of restructuring. He could appear before groups of investors, make a presentation of two, and get his way.
None of that experience is relevant or useful in his current occupation.
So far he has been unwilling to learn nor does he care to.
Egads RNUG, October? Hopefully not. I’m hoping the politician’s eagerness to have a fair to glad hand in will help. I understand where you’re coming from.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:16 pm:
Voted “August 14th -”
“Why?”
I can’t see any of the budgetary …
Ok, no one has seen ANY of the budget stuff, but I digress…
I can’t see any of the budgetary parameters as they seem to be now, and after the FY2015 Fix - “unfix”, the idea Rauner, for the Rauner Budget and the Rauner Cuts getting 60/30 in the short term, or magically getting 71/36 before August 14th.
There’s nothing to vote for now, can’t get the 60/30, and when it gets to 71/36, looking at it today, not seeing those numbers hit on a phantom Rauner Budget.
- Nick Naylor - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:16 pm:
Rich, is there a typo in the poll? Two options are:
“June 1 - First payroll checks of FY/ 2016″
and
“First payroll of FY/ 2016 - August 13 (Governor’s Day at Illinois State Fair)”
You have ” twice listed “First payroll of FY/ 2016″
Just curious.
- Anonymous - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:17 pm:
May 31. Just a hunch that more progress is being made than many think
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:17 pm:
Those are the windows, - Nick Naylor -
- D.P.Gumby - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:19 pm:
In the words of the New Yorker cartoon:
“How about never? Is never good for you?”
- 47th Ward - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:19 pm:
I think the Governor has found himself too far out over his skis to stop himself from shutting down government “until the U-Turn Agenda passes.” The problem is, his U-Turn Agenda will never pass, and he seems to be the only person in Springfield who doesn’t fully grasp that yet.
I think the sort of high drama of starting a new fiscal year without a budget serves some demented purpose for the Governor. Lord knows what, but I think he wants to create the kind of atmosphere that launched Scott Walker into the hearts and minds of the National Plutocrats’ Party. I really don’t see any other answer.
Unless the General Assembly cuts him out of the process and passes its own budget, I really don’t see Rauner coming back to reality in time to get a budget in place by July 1.
- Anonin' - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:20 pm:
Votin’ May 31, no reason to go later. It would just cost BVR more to get MJM to agree to anything.
- Nick Naylor - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:21 pm:
OW, I am not sure what you mean “those are the windows”. In the whole scheme of things, my point is not a big one. But to clarify, what’s the difference between “first payroll checks of FY 2016″ and “First payroll of FY/ 2016″?
- Team Sleep - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:22 pm:
May 31st
I still hold to my point that we will see “CRs” until veto session. Just a hunch.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:23 pm:
- Nick Naylor -
A to B, B to C, C to D…
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:26 pm:
===Votin’ May 31, no reason to go later. It would just cost BVR more to get MJM to agree to anything.===
A wise Governor, in divided government, and facing a deadline, would and should agree.
- Anonymous - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:33 pm:
May 31 show’s off the CEO governors skills then on to a new union contract
- Bill White - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:38 pm:
I predict a “signable” budget will be passed by the General Assembly no later than May 31st
Q: Will that signable budget actually be signed?
A: My Magic 8-ball says: “Ask again later”
- Huh? - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:39 pm:
Need the union contract to be able to work on the budget. Need to have the labor costs listed in the appropriation bills for each agency.
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:42 pm:
===Need the union contract to be able to work on the budget===
No, you don’t. When have they ever needed that? They can appropriate expected costs, or even less than expected costs (see Quinn admin).
- Juvenal - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:43 pm:
Bingo, Bill White.
“A budget” will be passed by May 31.
If there is no bipartisan agreement on revenue, Democrats will pass a doomsday budget.
Those who don’t think it can be done underestimate their resolve.
- Anon221 - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:44 pm:
Voted First payroll of FY/ 2016 - August 13 (Governor’s Day at Illinois State Fair-
As much as he likes the spotlight, it seems that he would try to push his Turnaround as long as possible and then (drumroll) celebrate (or rant some more) on Guv’s Day. However, if furloughs and lay offs ensue when FY 16 starts with no budget, it could be a very interesting State Fair season especially for the Dept. of Ag staff who are stretched to their limits anyway. Phil Nelson may have to roll out some of his Farm Bureau buddies to work the Ag Tent.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:47 pm:
===If there is no bipartisan agreement on revenue, Democrats will pass a doomsday budget.===
You aren’t paying attention to MJM running Rauner Agenda bills to Zero votes.
That is about Rauner owning the process, and being reminded Rauner Cuts, Rauner Budget, Rauner Contract are his, like all governors before and will be after him.
No way will Dems vote for Draconian cuts.
Besides, the $26 million Good Friday Massacre also would be nullified by a Denocratic budget passed by those parameters.
- Hoping for Rational Thought - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:50 pm:
@ August 10th is a school aid payment. Having employees scream is one thing but when school districts start hurting
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:52 pm:
Didn’t vote, because I don’t know if the dems are just gonna do it on their own. They will not pass a “doomsday budget.” But they could certainly work alone to figure this budget out, since they sadly appear to be the only adults at the table. Again, very sad that they are considered the adults. If they try to work with the gov to get a legit budget passed… well then I would vote August 14 or beyond.
- Michelle Flaherty - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:52 pm:
It has to be by the end of the month. It would be horrible for Gov Rauner’s first session to be a failure. I’m sure deadlines mattered in his corporate world and he should expect no less in his role as state CEO.
- Norseman - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:54 pm:
I voted “First payroll of FY/ 2016 - August 13 (Governor’s Day at Illinois State Fair”
Given what we know about these cast of players we’ll need extreme frustration to force people to give up on their agenda items/linkages and open up to some closure compromise. I think this will come right before the fair.
P.S. Folks the first payroll is mid-July.
- Waffle Fries - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:55 pm:
A budget will be ran before the end of may
- Skeptic - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 2:58 pm:
Nick Naylor: The first payroll checks of FY16 are pay for work done in FY15. The first checks for work done in FY16 come out in July or August or something.
- Rich Miller - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:01 pm:
===The first checks for work done in FY16 come out in July or August===
July 22nd…
http://www.ioc.state.il.us/index.cfm/resources/general-resources/2015-pay-schedule/
- 1776 - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:02 pm:
I’ll take the 5th option that was not listed:
Madigan and Cullerton will pass a budget and go home by May 31. This is technically the end of the spring session.
Rauner will veto and call them back for a special session that will last until July 14.
- VanillaMan - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:03 pm:
August - because it helps Rauner.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:05 pm:
===August - because it helps Rauner.==
How so?
- bored now - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:09 pm:
i’m not convinced it will ever end…
- Cheswick - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:09 pm:
I also am going with May 31st based mostly on my gut feeling, which tells me that for everything Bruce Rauner does or doesn’t know about the process, he has heard of the Overtime From Hell and knows he does not want to be the one to bring that back.
- The Colossus of Roads - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:16 pm:
Governor’s day at state fair. He can sign it with a cardboard cut-out of Meatloaf!
- NotYetRetired - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:24 pm:
Rich– For constitutional office employees and general assembly employees, courts, & dept of Revenue employees - they are paid on the 15th and last day of each month (see page 10 of the link you posted). They are paid on July 15th for time worked between July 1 and July 15th. Some other agencies are paid on different schedules - as is reflected in the other pages of the link you posted. But, July 15th is the first payday of FY16.
- facts are stubborn things - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:27 pm:
I think Rauner is willing to deal with a crisis and see if out of that crisis he can get some of the things he wants.
- walker - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:32 pm:
May 31, then wait for Rauner to swallow hard.
- Bill White - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:38 pm:
Moody’s points the way to a “Doomsday” budget that does not include draconian cuts to social services:
=== Our A3 rating on the State of Illinois reflects the state’s broad legal powers and fiscal tools to address its budget challenges, including pensions. Among the state’s options are reversing its recent income tax cuts and reducing revenue sharing with local governments. We note that the state itself also retains the option of shifting pension costs to lower levels of government, notably public universities and school districts (other than CPS), the pension liabilities of which are currently funded by the state. ===
- end - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:43 pm:
May 31 because anything later would make the Governor look ineffective. He’ll get it done because that’s what business leaders do.
- Tough Guy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:43 pm:
I said option 3 as I have been down this road before. A handful of payrolls will be payable on 7/15 with a few more everyday. Several years ago the Comptroller’s Office requested a judge, in a neighboring county to Springfield ,to issue an order to pay employees without an appropriation in place which was granted. Since Medicaid is a Federal program, a judge will order it to be paid also. Kind of creates some messy accounting the IOC has to clean up but they have had to deal with this before.
- Corporate Thug - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 3:56 pm:
Agree with 1776. Dems will pass a budget. Rauner will veto it. We’ll spend a few weeks in June with the leaders and staff discussing and lawmakers in their districts, then come back in July. Think something will get passed then.
- Robert the Bruce - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:00 pm:
Voted Aug 14-
A game of chicken on who has to develop and commit to voting for a balanced budget.
- downstate commissioner - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:21 pm:
Voted August 14-depends on who blinks first, and Madigan won’t…If Rauner ever figures out what Blago never did, it might be earlier…
- Don't Worry, Be Happy - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:22 pm:
Third week of September. The need to end the Chicago teachers strike will be the catalyst for the grand deal that brings to a close both the session and the strike.
- The Muse - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:25 pm:
Voted May 31st because I don’t think Rauner will want to do a government shutdown - the public will blame him and only him. But then again, if he’s as much of a hardcore Randian that some say, maybe his version of “Shaking Up Springfield” is making it look like he’s doing something by making noise during the summer… Popcorn is ready, now on with the show!
- Johnnie F. - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:36 pm:
Would like to see May 31st, but have a feeling it will be mid-July or later. There just doesnt see any signs of bipartisanship and too many signs of high drama.
- Levois - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:51 pm:
In spite of making CapFax my daily read over the years I just was throwing in the wind Aug. 14th for no particular reason. Here’s hoping I’m wrong because most people want hope to see Illinois return to the right track.
- RNUG - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 4:56 pm:
Voted later than Aug. 14.
While I think some kind of continuing budget resolution will get passed before then, I don’t think we will have the final budget until sometime in October. I think it’s going to take that long to work out a “grand deal” with some minor cuts, dedicated pension funding (from various sources, including new taxes and the TRS “normal cost” shift) that can’t be easily diverted by the GA, some revenue to hold various federally funded programs mostly harmless, and a partial bail-out for Chicago teachers, police and firefighters in the form of a block grant to the city of Chicago.
It will take until October for all the stars to align properly …
- Kevin Highland - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 5:06 pm:
I voted past 8/14. I think they have a lot to do and a bunch of disagreement between leadership & Gov.
- AC - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 5:30 pm:
It will be late, because it will take that long for everyone to come to their senses. It may even require a disaster or two before Rauner gets it, but he isn’t alone, Democrats aren’t going to own the hard cuts and revenue increases by themselves.
- low level - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 6:25 pm:
Sometime in May 2017.
Rauner’s experience in business in part is to go into troubled companies, declare bankruptcy and cash out after some sort of restructuring. He could appear before groups of investors, make a presentation of two, and get his way.
None of that experience is relevant or useful in his current occupation.
So far he has been unwilling to learn nor does he care to.
- Last Bull Moose - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 6:56 pm:
Voted May 31. If not then, it will drag out all summer.
- Norseman - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 8:05 pm:
Egads RNUG, October? Hopefully not. I’m hoping the politician’s eagerness to have a fair to glad hand in will help. I understand where you’re coming from.
- RNUG - Monday, May 18, 15 @ 9:20 pm:
- Norseman -,
Yeah. One this one I’m being a real pessimist.