Games people play
Wednesday, May 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mark Brown on the competing redistricting reform proposals…
The House and the Senate now have until the end of this week to approve the other chamber’s approach if either amendment is to go before Illinois voters in a referendum this fall.
Except that does not appear to be the plan. Instead, legislators in both chambers are preparing to ignore the other’s legislation.
This way they can all say they voted for legislative districting reform — without actually accomplishing anything.
Capitol Fax’s Rich Miller has aptly labeled this maneuver the “criss-cross,” a time-honored legislative method of deflecting blame and responsibility.
It’s a terribly cynical way of doing business, even accounting for honest differences of opinion on the best approach.
As I said months ago, if Democrats didn’t like the Independent Maps approach, then they needed to come up with their own plan to put before the voters this fall.
Agreed.
* But there are games being played everywhere. For instance…
A redistricting overhaul is part of the Turnaround Agenda that Rauner has said legislators must agree to before he’ll talk about new revenue to balance the budget.
But now that Democrats are moving forward, he’s rebuffing their redistricting proposals in favor of the citizen-driven bid. “What we want to do is have one initiative on the ballot,” he said Friday. “My personal opinion is the best one is the one that’s being advocated by Republicans and Democrats through a voter referendum process.”
- JS Mill - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:52 am:
OK with me Governor as long as you also support the citizen supported graduated income tax.
- Saluki - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:53 am:
The independent map amendment is supported by Republicans and Democrats. This entire charade of competing bills is nothing more than an attempt to confuse and kill the idea. Shameful.
- Not quite a majority - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:57 am:
Wow. Never saw that coming. /s
- A guy - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 10:59 am:
The people who support no Remap are not even enough to get to 1%. Just divide the number of people in Illinois by the small number of legislators and lobbyists who love it just the way it is.
Different group of 1 percenters I’d say. Not even 1%.
- Norseman - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:01 am:
Gov supports the citizens referendum amendment. Good. That’s out of the GA’s purview so we can cross off one item on the TA.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:14 am:
My legislator already sent me an email saying he voted for reform, so I guess that means he did his job and I can vote for him again knowing that reform is coming to Illinois. Yippee.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:26 am:
Of course Rauner has an interest, that doesn’t make his position wrong and the Democrats’ chicanery right. If the year was 2020, the Democrats might be pushing for the citizen’s referendum and the GOP might oppose it (risking the coin flip and the chance that they could draw the map all by themselves).
- The Captain - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:34 am:
I’ve been repeatedly on record (and at great length) that the map is a red herring, the reason there are super majorities in both chambers has very little to do with the map. But I’m also sick of having it as an issue. Changing the map making process won’t make much difference, just agree on something and make it go away.
- the Other Anonymous - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:55 am:
OK, if the Governor wants the Independent Maps proposal that’s being put on the ballot referendum rather than the ones in the GA, then it should no longer be an obstacle to negotiating the budget. Right?
- Earnest - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:55 am:
This kind of tactic by legislative Democrats is very disappointing. It gives Rauner credibility when lays blame on them.
- A guy - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:56 am:
====the reason there are super majorities in both chambers has very little to do with the map. ===
After reading that, all I heard was Charlie Brown’s teacher’s voice. Ugh.
- Annonin' - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 11:59 am:
Does anyone tell BigBrain he should give up on tryin’ to look like he understands all the elements of any issue…what if BigBrain had gotten his wish and the GA passed a remap bill? He workin’ to block the petitions? What about the Wall Street banker leadership?
He should stick to gettin’ loopey on the Harley
- The Captain - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 12:18 pm:
=== After reading that, all I heard was Charlie Brown’s teacher’s voice. Ugh. ===
You don’t say. I’ll give you the short version, hopefully the voices in your head will be clearer as you read it. There are currently 47 Republicans in the House. Rauner (who won statewide by 4 points) won 71 of those districts, Cross (who lost statewide by a fraction of a point) won 65 of them, the House Republicans won 47 of them. The map is a red herring.
Rauner won four house districts currently held by Democrats by more than 30 points (Franks, Costello, Bradley & Phelps). In three of those districts the Republicans didn’t even have a candidate on the ballot. Rauner won 71 house districts, Cross won 65, the House Republicans won 47. The map is a red herring.
GA redistricting (unlike recent Congressional redistricting) is a zero sum game. With each new remap there are the same number of districts and the boundary of Illinois doesn’t change. It’s not like Madigan can move some Republicans into Wisconsin and take some Democrats from Indiana and draw more favorable maps. So in order to protect the majority they can employ one of two strategies.
1) pack a narrow majority of districts at about 58-60% Dem and always have a majority
2) thin out those district to about 52-53% Dem and take a shot at getting a super majority if things go your way
Here’s the problem and why the map is clearly a red herring. The downside of option 2 where you thin out those districts in hope of gaining a super majority in years when the vote goes your way is that it can go massively against you when things go bad. Like a wave Republican year. Like in 2014, a wave Republican year. As in 2014 when the national Republicans won seats on top of the seats they won in 2010 (which was a wave Republican year where they got the most seats since the great depression) and locally our state elected its first Republican governor in 16 years. In that environment the Democrats here should have got their clocks cleaned, instead they walked away with super majorities in both chambers.
The map is a red herring.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 1:05 pm:
If it’s a red herring Madigan wouldn’t have resisted it so fiercely in the past. Isn’t “pack a narrow majority of districts and always have a majority” a great option to have? And how much can you attribute the future to the election of 2014 - it’s not like the Democrats are going to put up a candidate as terrible as Pat Quinn every 4 years.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 1:06 pm:
===it’s not like the Democrats are going to put up a candidate as terrible as Pat Quinn every 4 years. ===
Quinn may very well be the nominee next time around.
- Qui Tam - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 1:14 pm:
===Quinn may very well be the nominee next time around.===
Yikes Rich! It’s too early for scary Halloween stuff.
- David Starrett - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 1:24 pm:
I tend to agree with Cap’ that a a less gerrymandered map is unlikely to materially affect the partisan balance in the two chambers, but it may significantly impact the outcome of some Primaries.
- jim - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 1:58 pm:
well, in defense of Rauner’s approach, doesn’t it make more sense to have one redistricting proposal than two that might confuse voters. fujrther, if he can get redistricting via an end run on the legislature, doesn’t that encourage him to try to get something else from the legislature? I don’t see why some suggest that Rauner has to be stupid in his approach to negotiations. Madigan had months to respond on the redistricting, and he comes in at the last minute and the critics suggest Rauner should drop everything and fall in line. by the way, columnist brown suggested neither legislative redistricting proposal will make it on the ballot. not sure I agree with that, but if he is, wouldn’t rauner be smart to stick with the sincere redistricting option rather than a potential Madigan trojan horse redistricting plan.
- walker - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 2:38 pm:
The map is a convenient excuse, and remapping reform is more for symbolic value than for changing a lot of legislative seats. It is not entirely a red herring, though. A truly neutral map could switch around 3-4 House seats. Other factors have more impact.
Mapping doesn’t create democratic majorities, the voters do that. But remap reform would make it less likely to get to supermajorities.
Like a lot in partisan politics, the reality is somewhere in the middle between two extreme positions.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 4:08 pm:
Walker - isn’t your comment more a reflection of how blue our state is? In another state (or if we had a closer GOP vs. Dem division), those 3-4 districts could flip the balance of power.
The effect in Illinois may not be extreme, but the principle of gerrymandering is: it seeks to diminish the power of certain votes and increase the power of others.
- walker - Wednesday, May 4, 16 @ 4:21 pm:
LCD. I have always agreed with you on principle supporting remapping reform, but not on its practical impact in Illinois. It would be a modest improvement, not a massive one. It would certainly remove an irritant and rebuild trust for some voters.