* Greg Hinz…
With Illinois going through a budget war unlike any in state history—and huge amounts of political cash sloshing around—you’d think people would be flocking to run for the General Assembly.
You’d be wrong.
The last real opportunity to run for state senator or representative closed on May 31, when the deadline passed for established political parties to fill vacancies on the November ballot by appointment. And not only are most seats uncontested, there actually will be fewer contested races this year than there were in 2014, according to the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform, which is out today with an analysis of the final ballot standings. […]
Given that the state is about to enter its second year without a budget, the lack of competition “boggles the mind,” says Susan Garrett, a former Democratic senator from the North Shore who chairs the group. “Maybe on both sides there’s a reluctance to field anybody. Maybe it’s hard to get people to run, given how toxic Springfield is now.”
The latter theory makes some sense. It’s certainly consistent with what I’ve been hearing for months: Lawmakers on both sides are tired of being so much cannon fodder in the war between Gov. Bruce Rauner and House Speaker Michael Madigan, unable to exercise much judgment or choose their own priorities.
* ICPR press release…
Tuesday, May 31st was the deadline for party candidates to file for eligibility in the November General Election, and the results are in. Out of the 177 total positions in the General Assembly, 158 are up for election in November. There are 62 contested races. 57 of the candidates are female, and 67 are male.
This means that 41% of eligible races are competitive in the General Assembly this year. In 2014, there were 137 offices up for election, and 61 races were competitive, or a rate of 44%.
Of the 118 eligible Illinois House of Representative positions, 50 are competitive. 16 of those have an incumbent House Republican running, and 27 have an incumbent House Democrat running.
In the Illinois Senate, 12 of 40 eligible offices are competitive. 7 of those are incumbent Senate Democrats, and 4 are incumbent Senate Republicans.
8 open races are contested with newcomers from both parties, and 7 of those are for House seats. It appears as though the Senate Democratic majority will remain intact, as they currently hold a 19 member lead over Republicans. However, the Illinois House majority is 24 seats, and 27 of those are up for re-election this year. Depending on the outcome of the General Election, the House Democrats could lose their supermajority, impacting important budget and override votes.
Half of the contested races (31) are in the Chicago Suburbs. 14 are in Central Illinois, 1 is in the Northwest Suburbs, 6 are in Chicago, and 10 are in Southern Illinois.
Incumbent Representative Jack Franks’ election is included in the total count of 62 contested races, although he has declared that he will not seek re-election to the House. It is likely that the Democrats will appoint another candidate, although the District tends to lean Republican. The party has until August 31st to fill any candidate position that is vacated after the May 31st deadline.
111 candidates have active political committees. Candidates can file to start a new committee at any time, so we should expect to see them pop up throughout the campaign season. Currently, all committees in contested races have a total amount of $13.6 Million in funds available.
The difference now is that folks like Democratic Rep. John Bradley and Republican Rep. Dwight Kay look like they have truly competitive races. Kay nearly lost to an unknown, under-funded opponent four years ago. Bradley hasn’t had a real opponent in a very long time. Some other incumbents who might have faced only token opposition may also find themselves embroiled in real races. Stay tuned.
* But there was a serious failure by the GOP to recruit a candidate to run against Rep. Jerry Costello. Their last allegedly real race against the guy collapsed when their candidate turned out to be a complete dud.
And the Senate Democrats never did come up with a candidate to replace retiring Sen. John Sullivan. Republican Jil Tracy is unopposed. That seat is now officially gone. It was a “John Sullivan district” anyway, not a Democratic district. The SDems would’ve probably wasted a ton of cash defending that seat. So they may be better off.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 1:35 pm:
The long game for Rauner is to dry up Democratic funding, discourage Democrats, make Dems tired and in 3 or cycles, Raunerism is accepted as the default.
The Dems will keep control of the Senate, “officially”, by the math of the raves, the House will probably lose the ridiculous notion of a Super-Majority, and Madigan will love that, sadly for those HDems that lose.
The only way “Vote Accordingly” works is by making every inroad where Raunerites have races. Every race.
The election is just the stage.
The real thing going on is will Rauner’s long game, this cycle, bear fruit, it just drain monies.
- illini97 - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 1:39 pm:
I think Kay is in real trouble.
Running against a female college professor. Gee, think there will be any mailers on not funding higher ed? Or on his statements about birth control promoting promiscuity? It’s a blue area already.
Oh, and Honeybear’s on the case. Trouble.
- Honeybear - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 1:43 pm:
Yep, Kay is going to be a competitive race. My local is throwing everything and it’s mother at him. Coordination with the SIUE folks, the destroyed social services and our trades brothers and sisters. It’s a giant coalition to ADD to the DEM assets in place during an election year. Best chances we’re ever going to have. It’s no wonder that Rep. Kay is at Rauners heel every second he can be. He’s gonna need that money for 40$ gift cards, etc to get people out for him. We have got the people and more importantly the motivation. Nothing motivates like having your job threatened or taken away.
- Honeybear - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 1:46 pm:
But here’s the deal. Dwight Kay is a really great man and he’s been a good Rep till Rauner. It’s not personal. I’m sure there’s a good Godfather quote for this but I’ve only seen one of them so far.
- Tamez - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 1:52 pm:
I don’t think legislators have been paid for six weeks now. That can’t help candidate recruiting.
- Earnest - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 1:54 pm:
>The real thing going on is will Rauner’s long game, this cycle, bear fruit, it just drain monies.
Agreed, with 2018 being the make-or-break moment. If we have a Democratic president there will be fair winds for Republicans. If Rauner can get re-elected he will be along ways towards achieving this. Still, a lot of water to go under the bridge before 2018.
- illini - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 2:03 pm:
Agree with the comments about Kay - should be an interesting race to watch,
Any odds on the Bryant reelection bid? She and Kay both represent the SIU campuses.
Unfortunately my Republican Representative is running unopposed.
And lets not forget about Bob Romanik!!!!!!
- Anonymous - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 2:08 pm:
Worth noting, it takes much more petition work to qualify for a legislative race than in former times.
Committeemen no longer have the power to simply fill vacancies in nomination following the primary by resolution; now, the resolution has to be followed by a petition gathering process and the selected nominee needs to obtain the same number of signatures as did candidates seeking ballot access for the primary.
- anon - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 2:12 pm:
One factor that discourages even token competition is the requirement, enacted in 2011, that appointed candidates must file petitions with the same signature requirement as other candidates. That not only means work for a potential sacrificial lamb, but then he has to face the likely petition challenge, which can be a draining process for any newbie.
- CD Sorensen - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 2:35 pm:
Independent runs are especially tough.
Not only signature requirements (which, okay, they’re higher, but they’re really not impossible - the real trap is there’s a max you can submit) but the fact that if you even voted in the previous primary with a partisan ballot, you can’t run as an independent.
That’s gotta kill some attempts.
- Michael Westen - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 2:46 pm:
This is a long-running problem for the House GOPers in particular. There have been other years where there was a national GOP landslide (2010 comes to mind), but they couldn’t take advantage of it because they hadn’t bothered (or couldn’t no matter how hard they tried) to recruit enough good candidates to be competitive in even a historically good year for their party.
- Illinois Bob - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 2:51 pm:
Same old same old. You can’t win if you don’t play. There are a lot of popularly elected school board and municipal officers out there who would run for a relative pittance from the HGOP or SGOP organizations, only $10k to $30K of support. $50K could really attract some pretty competitive candidates. I guess when you’re spending $500K to a cool million to protect individual leadership buddies that doesn’t leave much to fight a war, just a few battles.
Of course, the Illinois GOP has never been much of a grass roots or movement party.
- Not It - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 3:06 pm:
The lack of competitive races is due to gerrymandering…Uh, I mean protecting minority representation.
- Radar - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 3:07 pm:
I actually believe the DEMS will fair better than people expect. I believe the last election cycle can be used as a precursor to this one. Voters saw through all the money being used by the Rauner Administration to buy the election.
Representatives Avery Bourne and Sara Wojcicki Jimenez will be overrun for two more DEM seats and it will only be the beginning. Rauner is most likely going to be the downfall of the GOP and it is sad that the leaders don’t see it coming.
- north shore cynic - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 3:28 pm:
and let’s not forget all the local races that will not be contested. It wasn’t that long ago that we had a Republican State’s Atty. in Cook Co. and seven GOP County Commissioners.
Is there a competitive race in Cook Co.??
- DorothyD - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 3:32 pm:
I think the numbers in the ICPR release may be off, potentially failing to include slated and successful primary write-in candidates. For example, the report says that there is only one contested race in the northwest suburbs, and I am aware of several more than that. I can’t find a more detailed analysis of ICPR showing its work, so it’s impossible to know. But, it’s worth noting that they may have missed some competitive races.
- Give Me A Break - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 3:50 pm:
Radar: If I had to bet today, I would say Wojcicki-Jimenez wins for no other reason than Sangamon County voters went with Benton in the primary. They have a long track record of marching into the their polling place and voting for most any R on the ballot.
If Benton won Sangamon County, any “R” can and will.
Not sure about Bourne.
- DorothyD - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 4:02 pm:
According to the ISBE, the following 13 (not 12 as reported by ICPR) state senate districts are contested: 22, 23, 25, 26, 28, 29, 31, 32, 38, 49, 52, 58, and 59.
- DorothyD - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 4:12 pm:
Sorry ICPR to keep picking on you, but your math is also off. According to ICPR, there are 62 contested races out of a possible 158, which ICPR says is a contest rate of 41%. 62 divided by 158 is 0.39 or 39%, not 0.41 or 41% . . . .
- MyTwoCents - Monday, Jun 6, 16 @ 5:15 pm:
It will be interesting to see how many races are truly competitive and not just there are 2 candidates and whether that is higher than normal.