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Let’s wait a while before jumping to conclusions

Wednesday, Jul 20, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told the Illinois GOP delegation at the Republican National Convention he expects Trump to return during the campaign, even though a highly-touted campaign rally at the University of Illinois at Chicago was canceled in March in the face of raucous protests and clashes between anti- and pro-Trump crowds.

Trump did return to Illinois a few days after the aborted Chicago rally to campaign downstate, but hasn’t been back for any public events since the March 15 primary.

Lewandowski said Trump has created new battleground states where Republicans have had little success in recent presidential elections.

“There’s an opportunity that we haven’t had in this country since 1984, in my opinion, and that’s to put states in play that Republicans don’t win anymore; and if you look at a state like Pennsylvania, and a state like Ohio, and Michigan, and places where Republicans have given up, even places like California – like the polls today said Trump is down three points in a state like Michigan – it’s unheard of,” he said.

Actually, it’s very much “heard of.”

* In mid-July of 2008, one Michigan pollster had Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by a mere 2 points. Obama went on to win the state by 16.4 points.

Around this time in July of 2012, a Michigan pollster had Mitt Romney actually leading Obama by a point. Obama won by 9.5

* Now, this isn’t to say that Trump will lose Michigan. I have no idea. Hillary Clinton is yet again running as a cautious incumbent in an environment that does not love cautious incumbents.

But what I do know is that early presidential polling is notoriously weird. You may remember early June of 1992, when Bill Clinton was polling in third place nationally behind President George HW Bush and Ross Perot, who was leading the pack at the time. That lead didn’t last.

We have to wait until after both conventions are finished and voters have had some time to process things before the polls start to make sense.

* And Illinois? Please. I thought Lewandowski works for CNN now. He’s sure not talking like an analyst.

12 Comments

- illinois bob - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 9:43 am:
I suspect that Trump will only visit Illinois for fundraising since there are few worthy Illinois GOP candidates that deserve support and Trump has no chance to win here.

- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 9:50 am:
For Trump, it starts and ends in Florida.

If Clinton wins Florida, Trump pretty much has to run the table in the swing states, including states like PA which the GOP has not won since 1988.

A nifty interactive tool, if you want to puzzle together scenarios:

http://www.270towin.com/

- Been ThereB4 - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 9:59 am:
== I thought Lewandowski works for CNN now. He’s sure not talking like an analyst. ==

He is still receiving “severance payments” from the Trump campaign.” The fact that CNN allows this says more about their journalistic standards than anything else.

- slow down - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 10:00 am:
The Trump campaign has talked repeatedly about competing in blue states but it’s pure silliness. As it has in recent elections, the race will be won or lost in Ohio, Florida and perhaps Pennsylvania.

- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 10:02 am:
Ross Perot blew it by jumping out then in the race. Also, by some of his weird remarks.

He would have done much better if he did not implode. Basically, the poll in 1992 could have been a reality but Perot blew it.

I was a Perot supporter as were many of my friends and some of my family. We all went to Clinton after Perot dropped out and did not go back once he reentered the race.

Non of us are for Hillary this time but non of us are for Trump. I will vote third party which I have never done.

- flea - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 10:23 am:
Wordslinger,

kudos to you, wow!

- RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 10:49 am:
I have trouble taking any polls seriously this year. I know more and more peoptle, mostly GOP, who don’t respond to unknown phone callers or even self-identity pollsters.

Can’t prove it but I’ve got a feeling we’re in uncharted territory this year. A good October Surprise could have a major effect this time around.

Heck, I consider myself an informed voter but, in most races, I don’t even know who I’m going to vote for … just who I’m going to vote against. It’s that kind of year …

- Boone's is Back - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 11:09 am:
===I thought Lewandowski works for CNN now. He’s sure not talking like an analyst.====

Agreed. Lost a lot of respect for CNN with that hire. Then again there wasn’t a whole lot left.

- train111 - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 11:26 am:
As sure as the sun rises in the east, there is some poll that show Illinois as competitive and then the ensuing stories quoting GOP leaders about how this year is different from the past and thay they are really are competitive- and then it will die and the Dems will carry the state by a double digit margin just like in the past. Happens every cycle.

- Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 11:28 am:
In Fantasyland the Libertarians win enough electoral votes to throw the election to the House.

That is my last hope other than Divine Intervention.

- pundent - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 12:34 pm:
I’ll start to take polls seriously when we see the two candidates standing side by side on a debate stage. The contrast will be stark.

- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 3:51 pm:
==- Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 20, 16 @ 10:02 am==

Thanks for your amazing historical insight.

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