Poll: Duckworth leads by 8
Tuesday, Nov 1, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We have a new Loras College poll…
Tammy Duckworth 42 percent
Mark Kirk 34 percent
Unsure 18 percent
Other candidates 6 percent
The poll was taken before most news reports emerged about Kirk’s controversial debate comments regarding Duckworth’s heritage.
* More…
Duckworth has a commanding edge over Kirk within the City of Chicago (62 percent to 17 percent), while the two draw even in the Chicago suburbs 38 percent each, and Kirk holds a slim lead in the rest of the state 38 percent to 36 percent.
Turning to the question of favorability ratings for the U.S. Senate, Tammy Duckworth enjoys a +13 net favorability, while Senator Kirk has a +1 favorability.
Other noteworthy results from the poll
54 percent of likely voters in Illinois approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance, while 41 percent disapprove.
53 percent of Illinois likely voters see the country headed in the wrong direction, while 76 percent say the state of Illinois is headed in the wrong direction. Only 14 percent of those polled indicated that the state was headed on the right track.
Kirk remains a relatively unknown quantity even after almost 6 years in the Senate. According to the toplines, Kirk’s total favorables (32 percent) and his total unfavorables (28 percent) add up to just 60 percent who can rate him. That total is 70 percent for Duckworth (41-29).
* Presidential…
Hillary Clinton 45 percent
Donald Trump 34 percent
Gary Johnson 6 percent
Jill Stein 2 percent
Unsure 13 percent
So, Trump and Kirk are polling even? Whew.
Keep in mind, though, the poll doesn’t take into account the aftermath of last week’s e-mail weirdness.
* Methodology…
The Loras College Poll surveyed 600 likely voters in Illinois. The survey was conducted Oct. 26-27. Margin of error for full sample is +/- 4 percent. Results calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval.
45 percent of the respondents were contacted via their mobile phones.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 1:43 pm:
–So, Trump and Kirk are polling even? Whew.–
Strange, given Kirk’s “malignant clown” comment.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 1:44 pm:
Just the percentages, nothing more, seem to have Duckworth and Clinton staving off Kirk and Trump within the same window, no over or under performing.
Might be real hard for Democrats to keep that 8 point “lead” down through the rest of the ballot.
Mendoza was up 8 the last time Rich had a poll here. However, Mendoza, I recall, was underperforming Clinton and Duckworth.
No one better be resting on these numbers. No feeling of the work is done for anyone or any side, so much at stake farther down, and that 8 points Clinton had/had in that snapshot… hmm.
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 1:46 pm:
Wow. If Trump out-performs Kirk in Illinois that will be something. It might mean he wins the election. Bad for the universe, good for Illinois.
- The Captain - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 1:51 pm:
I wish they had asked about the Comptroller’s race as well.
- Rhino Slider - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 1:57 pm:
I passed on this race. I couldn’t vote for either.
- Anon - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:00 pm:
===So, Trump and Kirk are polling even? Whew.===
In the last 6 years the major Kirk stories have been his stroke and his gaffes, and regardless of whether or not he was able, I’ve never really felt his presence except for right around the time for reelection.
That might be why he’s polling the same as Trump — he’s just the generic R vote and getting folks mostly due to party ID.
- Roman - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:04 pm:
Adding, that Emerson poll (link above) has Hillary up 12.
Willy, I’m guessing a double digit margin of victory for Hillary and Tammy is probably enough to carry Mendoza.
- Chucktownian - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:07 pm:
Trump and Kirk will do about the same…and get blasted in Illinois. I too wish they had polled the Comptroller’s race.
- Piece of Work - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:13 pm:
HRC will win Illinois but it will be much closer than most have predicted.
Things have dramatically changed in the last 2 weeks.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:25 pm:
I think Munger wins over Mendoza. The 5 million Bucks will help pull her thru. Not enough downstate voters are really familiar with Mendoza.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:32 pm:
yes, things have changed dramatically in the presidential race. the NYT huge story on Trump’s taxes and sketchy tactics, the story on the FBI and the Russian agent try, the Slate story on the server Trump tower uses for communications with a Russian bank…..
- Chucktownian - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:38 pm:
Today’s WaPo poll is an outlier. All of the other polls are the same. There is no tightening except in that one fishy poll. And that poll had a 13 point swing in one week. Ignore it.
- Downstate Democrat - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:38 pm:
Mendoza won a great endorsement from the Rock Island ARGUS and Moline DISPATCH that hung a lantern on her job as city clerk, saving tax dollars, independent leadership and guts to question authority when needed. If she keeps it close downstate and wins Cook County big, Mendoza should win a close one.
- Mal - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:40 pm:
There is no way Munger will win. That $5 million was a waste.
- Mal - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:45 pm:
Hillary and Duckworth will definitely win Illinois. Do I believe many voters will crossover to vote for Munger??
I highly doubt it.
Mendoza will win.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 2:56 pm:
- Mal -
Mendoza underperformed both Clinton and Duckworth when Mendoza was at an 8 point lead… Now Clinton and Duckworth are AT an 8 point spread.
===There is no way Munger will win===
Mendoza’s inept Crew and the Democrats and Labor don’t carry Mendoza, she loses.
There’s more than a way.
- Mal - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 3:01 pm:
OW
See you Nov 8!
- A guy - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 3:03 pm:
I don’t think this poll cancels any Pepto-Bismol orders. You’re still in the low 40s a week out, with 18% undecided. In a race where the other guy has done everything he can to give it to you?
It ain’t that hot. And if you look at the trending, you’d be even more worried.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 3:05 pm:
The Munger-Mendoza race could be “Frerichs-Cross” - Part 2.
Tightening polls help Munger. Mendoza has/d underperformed on polling and lots of undecided.
If I were Susana, I’d be looking at Democrats and Labor than her own campaign… “superstars”
Close. Very close.
- Touré's Latte - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 3:14 pm:
How bizarre it would be if Kirk gets the same voters as Trump.
- Touré's Latte - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 3:16 pm:
It does not help Mendoza that she proposes doing pretty much what Munger is doing already.
- Mal - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 3:20 pm:
OW
With two Democrats at the top of the ticket performing well there is no way those democrats will cross over to vote for Munger.
At the same time the only one that has underperformed is Munger. In the last poll Mendoza lead Munger by 8 points. I dont see how you think it means Mendoza is underperforming when the only polls you have seen show her with an 8 point lead.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 3:24 pm:
===With two Democrats at the top of the ticket performing well there is no way those democrats will cross over to vote for Munger===
Then why was Mendoza underperforming to begin with?
You put a think on that, get back to all of us.
===At the same time the only one that has underperformed is Munger.===
lol, good try.
The Democrats you cite had the leads, Mendoza couldn’t hold them in her race. Munger was down 8 with and underperforming Mendoza and 19% undecided.
You can’t wish statistics.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 3:28 pm:
=Things have dramatically changed in the last 2 weeks.=
Democrats are still Democrats and Republicans and still Republicans. Same as it ever was. This is still a blue state and that hasn’t changed in the last two weeks. At best recent events could have a marginal impact on turnout but that’s about it.
With regards to Munger she’s facing a strong headwind. It will be interesting to see if the money that’s backing her will be enough to overcome it. I don’t see this as a typical year in terms of splitting tickets but then again nothing about this year has been typical.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 4:19 pm:
I think one of the main things Mal is obviously missing here is that if (as many suspect) some Republican women cross over to vote for the first woman president, they are still likely to return “home” for down ballot races which will benefit Munger and others.
- Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 4:33 pm:
How bizarre it would be if Kirk gets the same voters as Trump.
Why? They appeal to the same base.
- Mal - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 4:33 pm:
Responsa
I think one of the main things you are missing here is if what you say were true then Kirk would be performing better than Trump.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 4:38 pm:
===I think one of the main things you are missing here is if what you say were true then Kirk would be performing better than Trump===
LOL…
- Responsa -
===…some Republican women cross over to vote for the first woman president, they are still likely to return “home” for down ballot races which will benefit Munger and others.===
- Mal -
Learn to understand polling, and why races seem to poll the way they are and why Mendoza is underperforming both Duckworth and Clinton in the last looking on the Comptroller’s race found here.
You may want to sit out a few plays, - Mal -
- Mal - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 4:42 pm:
OW
Nov 8 is right around the corner. Munger will be defeated. Would you like to put money on it?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 4:45 pm:
- Mal -
I don’t know you, or trust you, to keep ANY information about ME, or the paying off a bet with you in either instance from becoming public, so no, I won’t bet with you based on that.
- FearTheTree - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 4:45 pm:
Centrist Dem here. Voted 2x for President Obama.
Early voted yesterday. For Trump. And for Duckworth.
Kirk disavows Trump. I vote for Duckworth.
Were President Obama able to run again, I would have voted for him, however.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 5:15 pm:
Mal, only one person on this blog has the power to delete comments, and it ain’t Oswego Willy.
- Mal - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 5:20 pm:
Rich,
Whats your take on the Comptroller race?
- cannon649 - Tuesday, Nov 1, 16 @ 8:09 pm:
18 % with no pick a week to go -
There could be a real surprise here - the machine voters are never uncommitted
- Faustian - Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 8:34 am:
Hard R here - voting for Duckworth.