* Latest COGFA fiscal year to date report…
Excluding borrowing related activity, through the first two-thirds of the fiscal year base receipts are up $2.719 billion. In addition to December’s surge in federal sources, that growth also reflects the timing of income tax receipts related to the filing deadline extension. Through February, combined net income tax receipts are up $1.982 billion. While over half of those gains continue to be attributed to the shift of FY 2020 final payments into early FY 2021, very respectable underlying base income taxreceipting must be recognized as well. Also impressive is the continued positive trend of sales tax receipt performance. While overall levels of growth are fairly modest at 2.4%, given that rate reflects a post-pandemic versus pre-pandemic period, salestax performance continues to impress.
All of the other revenue sources combined have declined a net $143 million. While exceptional performance has been seen from inheritance tax and insurance tax, those gains have been more than erased by lower public utility tax receipts as well as timing related to one-time court settlement proceeds receipted last fiscal year, shown in the “other sources” category.
Overall transfers are off considerably, down $858 million, reflecting the lack of riverboat gaming transfers [$195 million] significantly lower Income Tax Refund transfer levels [$336 million] as well as lower other miscellaneous transfers [$438 million]. With another comparatively strong month of receipting, federal sources are up $1.562 billion year to date.
* But here’s Greg Hinz…
Illinois’ economy will recover along with the nation’s as COVID-19 pressures lift, but it’s going to be a slog for us, with the state unlikely to return to its previous employment level until at least 2023.
That’s the bottom line of a new forecast prepared by Moody’s Analytics for the Illinois Legislature’s fiscal unit, a report that is pretty dour, projecting Illinois in the long run will continue to markedly lag the nation and even the rest of the Midwest until it gets its finances in order and reverses its population drain. […]
However, the report adds: “The success of the state’s economy, and particularly that of the Chicago metro area, will depend on the strength of its tech sector, including computer systems and design and biotechnology. Tech companies that can meet the needs of Illinois’ manufacturing base will also be successful.” Logistics is a strength, too
Ultimately, it says, “Illinois has what it needs to remain a top business center, as long as it can solve the fiscal problems that are eroding its edge in the competition for talent, jobs and capital.” The state has a high educational attainment level, superb transportation links and below-average costs.
The forecast is here.
- FranklinCounty - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 3:00 pm:
Meanwhile, we put all our eggs in the “Fair Tax” and federal bailout basket. With Madigan gone, hopefully someone can actually step up with some fiscal leadership instead of burying our heads in the sand.
- Livco - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 3:03 pm:
Isn’t that last quote an just ideological cover to push Moody’s pension position? The actual substance - the fundamentals of a productive economy, one of the 20 largest on the planet - are what’s important.
Of course, GME says fundamentals don’t matter when psychology reigns supreme.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 3:06 pm:
===Madigan gone, hopefully someone can actually step up with some fiscal leadership instead of burying our heads in the sand.===
I’m always confused with this “burying head in the sand” tripe.
What does that even mean?
Rauner showed without budgets where cuts only exist, where things and items must be paid, and how mandates can’t be ignored.
The burying heads in sand is ignoring the learned lessons of Rauner’s no budgets.
To the post,
=== Ultimately, it says, “Illinois has what it needs to remain a top business center, as long as it can solve the fiscal problems that are eroding its edge in the competition for talent, jobs and capital.” The state has a high educational attainment level, superb transportation links and below-average costs.===
Investing in Illinois higher ed will help keep more in-state talent from leaving, and build more bridges with industry and education where businesses see our state not only have a higher educated pool of people, but we are growing that pool by investing in our own students
- FranklinCounty - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 3:09 pm:
==I’m always confused with this “burying head in the sand” tripe.==
I can tell.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 3:11 pm:
=== I can tell.===
… because mouth breathing ignorance encompassed in such a silly tripe makes you feel better.
Why anyone sees that as smart to the subject is confusing.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 3:19 pm:
==The state has a high educational attainment level, superb transportation links and below-average costs.==
I look forward to the GOP highlighting our “below-average costs” as they relate to doing business in IL! /s
- Incandenza - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 4:14 pm:
==Isn’t that last quote an just ideological cover to push Moody’s pension position?==
Yes, much of this rhetoric about the future of IL’s economy is just meant to push a certain austerity message: the loss of population is mostly due to national trends of the elderly population moving to the sunbelt and the New great migration, and tying it to pensions is just taking advantage of a complex issue and slapping on a politically motivated “solution”
- Barn Burner - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 5:19 pm:
Can someone explain what stake Moody’s has in pointing out the state’s pension problems?
Short answer: None. They are a neutral ratings service who give nothing but the facts to their customers.
Blaming Moody’s is nothing more than shooting the messenger. If you don’t like the facts… not Moody’s problem.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 5:28 pm:
=== Blaming Moody’s is nothing more than shooting the messenger. If you don’t like the facts… not Moody’s problem.===
(Insert one of - Wordslinger -‘s brilliant, truly brilliant, rants on the constitution, debt, payments to pensioners, and the credit rating groups ignoring it all as one package)
This is a post (then again, which ones weren’t?) where - Wordslinger - would take that batting practice fastball downtown.
- Al - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 6:23 pm:
The loss of the casino revenue is not as hurtful as it appears. Hundreds of millions of dollars were left in local circulation rather than exported out of State.
- Julian Perez - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 6:25 pm:
“actually step up with some fiscal leadership”
What is “fiscal leadership”?
IL and Chicago have lost population over the last decade. Chicago is the only major city (among top 10) to have lost population over the last decade.
You increase taxes (property, sales, excise) on ANY household earning less than 200k per year, and you’ll see that decline accelerate.
So, I ask you, what is “fiscal leadership”?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 6:29 pm:
=== You increase taxes (property, … ===
That’s a local issue, property taxes.
- Julian Perez - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 7:11 pm:
“That’s a local issue, property taxes”
Until it’s not. The Chicago Fed recommended an incremental statewide 1% property tax a couple of years ago
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 3, 21 @ 7:12 pm:
=== Until it’s not.===
Yeah… when it’s not, then it’s a parallel issue.
Until then…