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Question of the day

Monday, Nov 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rep. Dwight Kay introduced a new bill today

Amends the Abused and Neglected Child Reporting Act. Adds personnel of institutions of higher education, athletic program personnel, and early intervention providers to the list of mandated reporters under the Ac

This is obviously a response to the Penn State horror show. The bill makes a lot of sense, so there doesn’t seem to be any real need for debate here. But I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the reaction by that university to the scandal. Continuing refusal to release documents, a student riot in support of the alleged enablers, etc., etc.

We can’t do anything about that university here in Illinois, but our state does have two members in the Big Ten, including our flagship university, so…

* The Question: Should Penn State be kicked out of the Big Ten? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please. Thanks.


  117 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** New polls: Jackson up by 17 over Halvorson

Monday, Nov 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** Halvorson responds…

“This poll demonstrates that the race for the Illinois 2nd Congressional District is wide open. Even though almost all of the respondents in the poll know who Representative Jesse Jackson, Jr. is, only 35% of them are willing to support his reelection and almost half of the total respondents were undecided.

“I’ve been out talking to residents of the district every day and what I hear most is that they are tired of waiting. Our district needs a strong representative who is going to fight for jobs now. Representative Jackson has had 15 years to get the job done and is vulnerable because he has little results to show to this district.”

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Fako & Associates, Inc. has a new poll out

We conducted these surveys as an internal test, not commissioned by any campaign or third party organization. We chose the 2nd Congressional District to run nearly identical Interactive Voice Recognition and traditional live interviewer surveys because of the unique dynamics of the district. Its population and the state of the race presented numerous beneficial attributes to test the viability of IVR surveying. We will be discussing the advantages and disadvantages we discovered through these two surveys after the Thanksgiving holiday, but for now, we present you some of the results

These two polls only have 301 respondents each, so the MOE is a pretty high +/- 5.65 percent.

* Here are the CD 2 trial heat toplines. The first result in each line is for robocalls, the second number is for live interviewers…

Jackson……………………………. 39%….. 35%

Halvorson…………………………. 22%….. 18%

Undecided/Other/Refused…. 38%….. 47%

No longtime incumbent wants to be under 50 percent. Ever. But that’s still a decent sized cushion.

* Name ID, favorability and Jackson job approval…

Jesse Jackson, Jr.:

Substantive Name ID……….. 95% 93%

Positive…………………………… 38% 44%

Neutral……………………………. 30% 27%

Negative………………………….. 27% 22%

Don’t Know…………………….. 5% 7%

Jesse Jackson, Jr. as Congressman:

Approve………………………….. 41% 56%

Disapprove……………………… 24% 25%

Don’t Know…………………….. 35% 19%

Debbie Halvorson:

Substantive Name ID……….. 58% 54%

Positive…………………………… 26% 25%

Neutral……………………………. 22% 22%

Negative………………………….. 10% 7%

Don’t Know…………………….. 42% 46%

Not hugely great favorability and job approval numbers for Jackson, considering that he’s so well known.

* President Obama’s job approval…

Approve………………………….. 82% 89%

Disapprove……………………… 7% 6%

Don’t Know…………………….. 10% 5%

* That high presidential approval will be key if Fox Chicago’s recent report is accurate

The woman who vows to unseat Jesse Jackson Junior told FOX Chicago News the South Side congressman is so damaged by scandal not even a Presidential endorsement could save him.

Former Representative Debbie Halvorson (D-Illinois) was reacting to our Tuesday night report. A source close to the President’s re-election campaign told us President Obama would support Jackson in the March 20th primary.

It’s still not clear exactly what the President would do for Rep. Jackson (D-Illinois.) He’s still under investigation by the House Ethics Committee on charges related to Rod Blagojevich’s attempt to sell a U.S. Senate seat.

Halvorson declared, “People are sick and tired of his ethics problems, the fact that he’s never around, that he hasn’t done anything. The people of the Second Congressional District need somebody who can walk and chew gum at the same time, somebody who can actually do several things at once and work to bring jobs and economic development to each individual town in the district.

Discuss.

* Full toplines and crosstabs…

* Summary Topline

* Tables for IVR & Cellular Study

* Tables for Live Landline & Cellular Study

  16 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Quinn claims Ohio offering Sears $400 million to move

Monday, Nov 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I haven’t seen this number before and couldn’t find it elsewhere this morning, but Gov. Pat Quinn told the Illinois Radio Network that Ohio has offered Sears $400 million to move its headquarters out of Illinois

“We are competing with, frankly, Ohio, which has announced they’re offering them $400 million,” Quinn said. “We aren’t offering anywhere close to that but I think Sears understands that being in Illinois is the best place to be in the Midwest.”

Gov. Kasich, however, didn’t seem to think that Sears will move as of a few days ago

Kasich conceded that Ohio won’t land all the companies they go after. He didn’t seem too optimistic about Sears coming to the Buckeye State saying he expected Illinois to offer the company “whatever they wanted” to stay there. However, he said Ohio would never lose a company because “we’re not in the game.”

*** UPDATE *** The governor’s office says Sears testified to that number in committee recently.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* In other news, the Tribune looked at the District 300 lobbying efforts to make the Sears deal more palatable

In August, two school board members — one a former pharmaceutical industry lobbyist — formed a legislative committee partly to focus on the economic development area. The next month, school board members and other supporters began attending Hoffman Estates village board meetings, dubbing the effort “Occupy Hoffman Estates.” Then in October, the district hired veteran lobbyist John O’Connell, a former Democratic state lawmaker who has represented cigarette giant Reynolds American.

Not all of it sat well with some lawmakers.

“If I were to describe the district’s leadership, or one way to describe their approach, I would say it’s reckless,” said Sen. Dan Kotowski, a Mount Prospect Democrat, who helped the parties broker an agreement. “They’ve been going after bill sponsors, trying to attack their integrity and attack their credibility.”

[Superintendent Michael Bregy] said that on a Sunday in mid-October, a lawmaker asked him if he was willing to negotiate. Bregy said he was, and Kotowski set up a meeting that became the first time Bregy sat at a table with Sears officials.

* And a revised CME tax cut proposal along with a Sears deal could be unveiled this week

[Rep. John Bradley] said he cannot yet say how far the bill he’ll submit on Nov. 23 will go or whether it will satisfy the companies.

Too many interest groups now have too many conflicting views to predict what will come out of the legislative hopper, Mr. Bradley said. “I really don’t have a good sense yet of what it’s going to be.” All that can be said now is that the measure will deal with “tax reform,” he added.

Mr. Bradley said he’d file his bill Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, because that’s the last day he can give legal notice for a committee vote on legislation on Nov. 28. The Legislature is due back in Springfield on Nov. 29 for a one-day session to consider the proposed tax breaks.

* Related…

* Illinois factory execs turning less bullish: survey: For the second quarter in a row, slightly fewer executives described their businesses as thriving, the survey finds. The share slipped to 43% in the fall quarter, from 44% in the summer and a four-year high of 45% in the spring. Still, just 4% said their companies were in decline. The most optimistic executives were those in automotive, food and beverage and chemicals companies. But the number of executives who are pessimistic about the U.S. economy more than doubled this fall from since last spring, to 78%.

* Marin: Ordinary citizens’ voices go unheard

* Tribune files revised reorg plan with bankruptcy court

* Occupy Chicago Forms “Bread Line” at Thompson Center to Oppose CME Tax Breaks

* U.S. banks should “undermine” Occupy protesters: memo

  37 Comments      


Logic failures

Monday, Nov 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Doug Finke rightly points out some stark legislative hypocrisy regarding the negotiated unemployment insurance proposal

The deal, struck after months of negotiations, calls for the Illinois Department of Employment Security to float bonds. The proceeds will be used to pay off the debt to the feds. It’s supposed to be a good deal because the state thinks it can get a much lower interest rate from a lender than from Washington. It’s expected to save businesses $405 million and the state $240 million.

If the concept of floating bonds to pay off a debt sounds familiar, it should. Gov. Pat Quinn has tried for months to convince lawmakers to float bonds to pay off the state’s backlog of bills. Billions are owed to state vendors, medical providers, social service agencies, you name it. When those bills are paid late, the state pays interest.

Quinn calls it a debt restructuring since the state owes the money anyway and now is shifting the burden of those nonpayments to people and organizations that are not in a good position to absorb that burden. The administration believes it can borrow money cheaply and get the state current on its bills.

So far, though, lawmakers have shown no inclination to go along. Many argue the Quinn plan will increase the state’s debt and not force spending cuts, so it is bad. It also doesn’t help that it’s Quinn’s idea, which automatically makes it suspect to many lawmakers.

Still, the idea of borrowing to pay off a debt isn’t anathema to every lawmaker in every case. Only one person - Sen. Chris Lauzen, R-Aurora - voted against the unemployment deal.

Borrowing is only bad when partisan politics makes it so. It’s like taxation. Raising taxes to fund the capital bill received broad bipartisan support. Raising taxes to fund operations received no bipartisan support. One set of taxes was good and one wasn’t.

As for this UI bill, the Chicago Tribune has repeatedly editorialized against any more borrowing, but uttered not one peep before, during or after the overwhelming bipartisan roll calls in favor of the legislation. Imagine that.

* But the DeKalb Daily Chronicle far too easily breezes past serious constitutional questions regarding the pension fund problems, although it’s right that a solution is still nowhere in sight

Opponents to SB 512 say the bill is unconstitutional. The Illinois Constitution says pension benefits “shall not be diminished.”

So we sit and wait and wonder.

We wait for lawmakers to have the courage to tackle the pension problem and make an unpopular decision. We do so wondering if it will even be considered in 2012 because it is an election year for all seats in the Legislature.

Will lawmakers have the political will to demand sacrifice in the public sector?

Lawmakers are quick to point out the pension problem. They’re fast to say something needs to be done. But when it comes to fixing the problem, lawmakers have been dragging their feet, disagreeing with the only solution on the table without offering an alternative.

So we sit and wait and wonder.

When will lawmakers do their job?

All lawmakers solemnly swore an oath to defend the Constitution, so knowingly violating that oath would be a very serious breach of conduct. The oath is sacred and is not something to be cavalierly tossed aside, as the Chronicle and other publications, particularly the Tribune, are so wont to do. If a legislator has good reason to believe that a bill is unconstitutional, then that legislator absolutely must not vote for it. And there is ample reason to believe that the proposal in question is unconstitutional.

But I do agree that opponents ought to help find another solution to this pension mess, and quickly.

  38 Comments      


GOP’s state remap case imploding

Monday, Nov 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

While all eyes last week turned to the Republicans’ lawsuit against the new district map for U.S. congressmen, a similar GOP lawsuit against the legislative district map for Springfield’s state senators and state representatives may be teetering on the brink of collapse.

Many of the same arguments are being used by the Republicans in both the congressional and state legislative cases. Both lawsuits have a partisan angle. The Republicans claim that the majority Democrats so intensely used political gerrymandering to draw their maps that the end result illegally deprived Republicans of their constitutional rights.

The court that is hearing the congressional map case has yet to rule on the political angle, but the court that heard the state legislative remap case dismissed the Republicans’ political charge last week. The political gerrymandering strategy was never considered all that solid because nobody has ever won a case using that argument. The strategy is given about the same chance of success — slim to none — in the congressional case.

As with the congressional map, the Republicans also challenged several Democratic-drawn state legislative districts for being racially gerrymandered. All but two of those challenges to the state legislative map have been dismissed. Actually, all of them were tossed, but the Republicans were told they could replead their case on two of the districts on Dec. 12.

One of those two is an Illinois House district that runs from Springfield to Decatur. The district takes in Springfield’s predominantly African-American East Side and then heads over to black neighborhoods in Decatur. The district has a black voting age population of 25 percent. The Republicans claim that the Democratic mapmakers’ predominant intent was to pack as many black voters as possible into the district, which they claim is illegal.

The other district was drawn for state Rep. Mike Zalewski (D-Riverside). That district, in and around Chicago’s Southwest Side, is about 46 percent Latino, and the Republicans claim it should be majority Latino.

Needless to say, even if the Republicans win their argument on these two districts, the state legislative map as a whole may not change all that much. However, changing just one boundary can have a wide-ranging ripple effect.

For instance, pulling enough people into Zalewski’s district to make it majority Latino would cause the Democrats to scramble to figure out what they’re going to do with the rest of Chicago’s Southwest Side, which was precariously balanced to give everybody what they wanted.

The end result there could be that some majority black districts lose Latino voters in order to make sure that current Latino districts remain Latino districts. That means the Democrats will have to find other places to take voters from, which could cause some suburban white Democratic legislators to lose black voters, which means the Republicans might have a better chance of winning one or two of those districts.

Got all that? Like I said, wide-ranging ripple effects.

A Republican win on the Springfield/Decatur district charge could take away a possible House Democratic pickup opportunity. That area now is represented by a Republican, who announced he was running in an adjacent district, mainly because it’s much better to sell a house in this horrible real estate market and find a new residence than possibly lose one’s job if one stood and fought an uphill battle. A court win there also could endanger Illinois Senate Democratic Chief of Staff Andy Manar’s bid to join the chamber, because the House district makes up half of Manar’s new Senate district.

The Republicans never have been all that confident about their lawsuit against the state legislative map. Legislative Democratic leaders worked extra hard to ensure their state map would withstand a court challenge.

But state Democrats don’t care nearly as much about the congressional map, and some Republicans still have hope they can prevail on at least some points in that case. Besides the probably doomed political angle, the Republicans say Congressman Luis Gutierrez’s Chicago-area district has too many Latino voters and want some of those voters parceled out to two neighboring districts, which are currently less than 50 percent Latino.

Stay tuned.

* Meanwhile

While a panel of federal judges weighs a Republican challenge to Illinois’ new U.S. House district boundaries, lawyers for the state and the GOP said Friday they will discuss whether to push back the deadline for congressional candidates to file their nominating petitions.

The three-judge panel in U.S. District Court heard closing arguments Friday after a two-day trial on the GOP’s lawsuit contending the Democratic-drawn map violates the law because it doesn’t protect the rights of Latino voters and contorts districts with the aim of creating areas that are friendly to Democrats and hard or impossible for Republicans to win.

“The only purpose of drawing the district boundaries is to corral Latinos,” said Republican Party attorney Joshua Yount, arguing the map excessively packs Latinos into an earmuffs shaped 4th District linking the Northwest and Southwest sides of Chicago. The district map was first approved by the courts 20 years ago and has been held by Democratic Rep. Luis Gutierrez of Chicago since 1993.

Attorney Michael Kasper, who serves as legal counsel to the state Democratic Party led by House Speaker Michael Madigan of Chicago and who successfully defended Mayor Rahm Emanuel against a residency challenge, argued on the state’s behalf that the map did not violate minority voting rights or the U.S. Constitution.

  5 Comments      


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Monday, Nov 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Monday, Nov 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** All-Day ScribbleLive News Updates ***

Monday, Nov 21, 2011 - Posted by Rich Miller

* BlackBerry users click here, iPad and iPhone users remember to use the “two-finger” scrolling method. Enjoy…

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* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Republicans denied TRO in bid to be appointed to ballot
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* It’s almost a law
* Credit Unions: A Smart Financial Choice for Illinois Consumers
* Was the CTU lobby day over-hyped?
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