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*** UPDATED x1 *** Question of the day

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the twitters…


* WBBM Radio reports the governor claims his office reached out to Speaker Madigan’s office last week about setting up a meeting, but received no reply. “My understanding is the Speaker is in town, which is good, so maybe he and I can meet, I think that could be productive.”

If you listen to the raw audio of the Q&A, the governor also said, “It seems to me that the crisis is being extended for political gain and messaging, and that’s wrong”…

*** UPDATE ***  Tim Mapes’ mom passed away over the weekend. Mapes is Madigan’s chief of staff. If Team Rauner tried to get Mapes on the phone last week, its more than just conceivable he was dealing with his mom. Let’s really hope that isn’t the case because going public with a missed communication without checking first would be a very huge blunder by Rauner if true.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* The Question: Do you think one-on-one negotiations between Rauner and Madigan will make any difference? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


free polls

  135 Comments      


Rauner and “stealth democracy”

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Brian Mackey’s “Rauner, Trump And The Lure Of The CEO Politician”

Much has been made of Trump’s appeal among voters who tend toward authoritarianism. But that’s not Rauner. Instead, political science offers a better explanation of the appeal of the governor’s pitch: stealth democracy. The idea was outlined by John Hibbing and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse in their 2002 book Stealth Democracy: Americans’ Beliefs about How Government Should Work. It goes like this: people are angry, but not because they don’t like the policy outcomes of our political system. Rather, they don’t like the process. The three main components of the idea have to do with misunderstanding how much people agree on a public agenda, a disdain for self-interested policymakers and intense dislike of the arguments and mess inherent in democratic governance. Seen through the framework of stealth democracy, Rauner is a most typical American.

“People tend to see their own attitudes as typical, so they overestimate the degree to which others share their opinions,” Hibbing and Theiss-Morse write. Last week, Rauner said Illinoisans needed to make their voices heard in the Capitol: “We need democracy to get restored in Illinois, and we need the people to put pressure on members of Speaker Madigan’s caucus to do the right thing.” Of course, thousands of people are doing just that. But among the Democratic supermajorities in the House and Senate, they’re being pressured to do a “right thing” that is not what Rauner has in mind. Where Democrats would balance the budget with a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts, Rauner says he would balance the budget with a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts only after passing business-friendly legislation and weakening collective bargaining.

When the governor makes this case, which he’s done again and again, Rauner is playing on the Stealth Democracy idea that most voters don’t understand why politicians are always fighting. Hibbing and Theiss-Morse write that because most people are not interested in getting informed on more than a few issues — if that — they can’t see what all the fuss is about: “When it is apparent that the political arena is filled with intense policy disagreement, people conclude that the reason must be illegitimate — namely, the influence of special interests.”

There are few phrases more central to the Rauner lexicon than “special interests.” He told Chicago in 2013: “The government unions, the trial lawyers, the folks who make their money from government, they bought, they own the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, they control Springfield. There is nothing — we should be really clear — there is nothing weak, vulnerable, discriminated against about those special interest groups, and they have bought the Democratic party in Springfield. Unfortunately they have bought a number of the Republicans, too. And when you look at what’s happened as a result — our taxes are high and rising, unemployment is rising, and we’re shredding our safety net.”

Rauner makes no allowance for the notion that Democrats — and some Republicans — might have sincere reasons for supporting government unions and trial lawyers. Perhaps they question the wisdom of emulating the relentless layoffs in the private sector or think trial lawyers occasionally do good. The world is more complicated than the governor’s rhetoric allows. But voters tend to think there are simple solutions to what they don’t see as complex problems, and so they eat it up.

“People’s tendency to see the policy world in such a detached, generic and simplistic form explains why Ross Perot’s claim during his presidential campaigns in 1992 and 1996 that he would ‘just fix it’ resonated so deeply with the people,” Hibbing and Theiss-Morse explain. Remember Rauner’s campaign slogan? “Shake up Springfield. Bring back Illinois.” And Trump’s? “Make America great again.” They could slogan-swap without missing a beat. Stealth Democracy tells us that that since most Americans think everyone else agrees with them on what’s best for the nation, and that achieving those results ought to be as simple as putting a bill up and voting for it, we should not be surprised when people see no need for debate and compromise.

Thoughts?

  47 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Raw audio *** Rauner says he’ll back Trump if nominated

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the twitters…


*** UPDATE ***  Audio

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Keith Richards may not be amused, but please avoid all violent imagery in comments Thanks…

* Apparently, Keith Richards Once Nearly Pulled a Knife on Donald Trump

* Recounting the Night Keith Richards Almost Pulled a Knife On Donald Trump

* How Rolling Stone wild man took on Trump and got him fired

  81 Comments      


Down the memory hole

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* AP

State Senate Republicans are calling on Democrats who control the chamber to join them in supporting Governor Bruce Rauner’s call for full funding of elementary and secondary education.

Senate GOP leader Christine Radogno says Rauner’s proposed increase in general state aid of $55 million dollars will meet the recommended per-student spending of about $6,000 a year.* WAND TV

For the better half of the past decade local school districts have seen yearly cuts to their funding from the state.

This year, Governor Bruce Rauner and Republicans are calling for full funding for the first time in recent years. […]

Senator Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington) said, “a hundred percent funding means for the existing formula the districts who need it the most are going to get more of the money the would see if proration continues.”

* Daily Herald

Republicans Thursday continued to support Gov. Bruce Rauner’s plan to send districts more money in the next budget by paying out what they’re supposed to under state law anyway.

* In my mind, anyway, I think it was a political mistake for Senate President John Cullerton to say he wouldn’t advance a K-12 appropriations bill until the funding formula was revamped to keep Chicago from enduring reduced state funding levels every year.

Why? Partly because of the media’s memory hole.

It’s pretty much impossible to find a story on the above topic which mentions the historical fact that every Republican legislator voted against funding K-12 last May. Yet, after voting last year to kill an education funding bill, they now openly weep about the possibility that an approp bill won’t be moved forward this year.

  49 Comments      


After the general?

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Radio

The primary is over, so will Illinois lawmakers and Republican Governor Bruce Rauner finally agree on a budget? Some who watch state government closely say chances aren’t so great.

Emily Miller is with ‘Voices for Illinois Children.’ She says the state’s political leaders will now likely shift focus to the general election in November.

“At first folks thought that perhaps after the primary election, people would be removed enough from the political side to make sound policy decisions. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that it won’t be until after the general election that people are able to leave politics behind.”

Even that may be optimistic.

* This is a long game for both sides, but the governor has more than ample resources to fight

Surface results from the March 15 primary election are in: Gov. Bruce Rauner can apparently neither protect those who support him nor punish those who oppose him, while House Speaker Mike Madigan and his union allies can do both.

But billionaires playing in Illinois politics have more money than Madigan and his allies can ever scrape together, and the latter burned through much of their stockpile to defend important yet small parts of their turf on Tuesday.

As savvy political pundit Rich Miller pointed out recently, Rauner makes about a million dollars a week, and his buddy, hedge fund director Ken Griffin, just dropped $500 million to buy a couple of paintings. So scores of millions for politics are but trifling matters to the governor, Griffin, and their sympathizers.

* Meanwhile

However, the primary results don’t mean Rauner and those who support his agenda will change their strategy, campaign finance expert Redfield said.

“Is it possible the governor can look at this and say, ‘There’s a limit to what I can do with my money, and I need to recalibrate’?” Redfield said. “I don’t think that’s the lesson he’s going to draw from this.” […]

The $6 million in the Dunkin-Stratton contest is more than most governors raise to win elections and more than many members of Congress raise, [Edwin Bender, executive director of the Montana-based National Institute on Money in State Politics] said. […]

“This isn’t about elections; this is about winning a policy war, a political war,” he said. “When you have the concentration of money and power in the hands of so few people, that’s a very frightening prospect for the future of policy making in Illinois.”

…Adding… Related…

* More spent on just 3 races than in all 2014 legislative races

  37 Comments      


Newspaper claims the Unabomber “arguably did less damage” than Madigan

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I kid you not. From a Belleville News Democrat editorial

House Speaker Michael Madigan uses neither e-mail nor a planner.

Lack of a planner might that explain why we are 263 days into the 2016 budget year and still have no spending plan. No day planner, no calendar, Madigan simply doesn’t realize the budget is overdue.

Lack of a planner might explain why the House took off a month when there were so many issues left hanging. Without a planner, how is Madigan to realize that budget and pensions and overdue payments and college expenses all need attention.

Lack of e-mail might explain why there is no movement on reforms or the budget or anything else of substance. All those Google calendar invites from Gov. Bruce Rauner’s office have been evaporating into cyberspace because mike.madigan@il.house.gov just doesn’t exist.

Only the Unabomber was farther off the grid than Madigan, and he, arguably, did less damage.

The hate is more than just palpable, folks. And it’s gonna crank up even higher by November.

  44 Comments      


This Is Illinois

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Our state fossil turns out to be a bloodsucker

Remember the Tully monster? It hasn’t been much in the news lately, but many of you may know it is the official fossil of the state of Illinois.

It achieved that exalted status by virtue of it’s fossilized remains being found by FRANCIS TULLY in 1958 in deposits near the Mazon Creek in northern Illinois. But even though the thing was first found nearly 60 years ago, it turns out that scientists have never really been sure what the monster was exactly. According to a story in the New York Times last week, some scientists thought the thing was a mollusk, like a snail. Others thought it was more like an arthropod such as an insect or a crab. Still others thought it was a worm. That’s a fairly divergent list of possibilities for the critter.

Now, according to the Times story, Yale researchers have come to a new conclusion. The Tully monster is a vertebrate “most closely related to the lamprey, an underwater bloodsucker.”

Did state lawmakers know what they were doing in making the Tully monster an official Illinois state symbol or what?

Well, we are known as the Sucker State, so I guess it fits.

  9 Comments      


Why Dunkin lost and McCann won

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My Crain’s Chicago Business column

One of the most common analytical errors made during the Illinois primary season was treating the state’s two hottest legislative contests the same.

Rep. Ken Dunkin, D-Chicago, and downstate Sen. Sam McCann, R-Plainview, were both portrayed as legislators who broke with their parties and, as a result, faced harsh punishment by their respective party leaders.

If you want to merely skim the surface, that’s kind of true. But scratch a millimeter more and you’ll see the huge difference between the two men.

First, a little background.

Dunkin enraged his fellow Democrats and organized labor when he left town for a New York jaunt and missed two highly important votes. One vote was to override Gov. Bruce Rauner’s veto of a bill to prevent a strike by American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees. The other was to override a veto of a bill to fully fund the state’s child care program for working-poor as well as indigent parents attending college. After he came back to town, Dunkin made things worse by openly siding with the Republican governor.

McCann voted to override the veto of that AFSCME-backed “no strike” bill, against the wishes of his party and especially Rauner, who claimed the bill would’ve tied his hands by forcing the two sides into binding arbitration. Proponents were convinced that Rauner was (and still is) trying to force a state workers strike in order to break the union, which he often calls “AFScammy.”

The bottom line here is that Dunkin…

Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.

  30 Comments      


Rauner has his work cut out for him

Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

“He was a god in that district,” a high-level Rauner guy told me about state Sen. Sam McCann’s poll numbers from before this year’s Republican primary campaign began.

Benchmark polling taken months ago showed McCann, R-Plainview, had a voter approval rating of about 70 percent. McCann “really was everywhere” in the district, attending events all over the place throughout his tenure, the Rauner official admitted.

Looking at those initial numbers, “you’d have to be crazy” to take McCann on, the official said. But the governor had threatened to punish any Republican who voted with AFSCME on a now infamous bill which barred a state employee strike and instead forced binding arbitration. McCann was the only Republican to vote against Rauner, so a massive game plan was devised.

What followed was the most expensive Republican legislative primary race in the history of Illinois. In the past, the million dollars or so raised and spent by and on behalf of McCann would’ve dropped jaws everywhere. But McCann’s $1 million was less than a quarter of the race’s $4.2 million grand total.

Even so, McCann defeated his Rauner-backed opponent Bryce Benton by more than 5 points.

Aside from the fact that beating any incumbent who starts off beloved by 7 in 10 voters is almost impossible, some folks think McCann’s opposition actually spent too much money. They claim that after the first $1 million, the rest was all white noise and may have prompted voters to start wondering just what in the heck was going on.

McCann never directly rebutted the allegations from the other side’s dogged research into his mileage reimbursements or his personal financial problems and claimed but nonexistent military service, but he did have an answer for voters who wondered why their television screens were filled to the brim with anti-McCann ads: “Chicago.”

“I’m being attacked because I did what was right for this district,” McCann said in what became a ubiquitous TV ad at the same time a “Chicago PAC spends $1.5 million against McCann” headline flashed across the screen. The ad started airing weeks before the total climbed to more than double that amount.

Benton, McCann’s opponent, never really established himself with voters as a hometown guy. That lack of biographical information probably bolstered McCann’s “Chicago” claim.

The “Chicago” attack worked in another race, Team Rauner admits. They used it themselves to beat back state Sen. Kyle McCarter’s GOP congressional bid against U.S Rep. John Shimkus. McCarter didn’t have more than a few dollars, so most voters had no idea who he was. Shimkus’ campaign defined him as a Chicago-loving guy. Shimkus never polled above 55 percent, but he wound up with 60.

Raunerite fingers are also angrily pointing at the “regulars” in the Sangamon County Republican Party who stuck with McCann to the end. McCann actually lost Sangamon by a few votes, but they say he would’ve lost by more if the party leaders had stuck with Rauner.

The reasons those party folks stood with McCann are twofold: 1) He’d built up a lot of goodwill and 2) Thousands of unionized state employees in the county are reliable Republican voters.

“If McCann loses, it won’t be due to a lack of volunteers on election day,” a union staffer texted me the morning of election day. “I’m not kidding when I say I’ve never seen a campaign have to adapt because of so many volunteers,” he texted a few hours later.

Those Springfield-area state workers have their own informal but vast communications network. They talk politics with coworkers, and then they bring informed opinions to their homes and their social circles. It worked two years ago when they thumped Bruce Rauner in Sangamon County, and it worked again this time when they helped carry McCann across the finish line.

The question now becomes how the Republicans retool their message for November. The McCann primary had been expected to be a preview of what’s to come. Unprecedented money from Rauner, charges that an incumbent is House Speaker Michael Madigan’s “favorite” legislator and brutally unflinching opposition research. But, just like McCann, most targeted Democrats have built up enormous local goodwill over the years.

Rauner and Proft’s money and effort won numerous primary races around Illinois this year where the opponents were little-known and relatively lightly funded. Those often hapless opponents could be defined almost at will. But, like with McCann, Rauner’s top targeted House Democratic incumbents won’t be so easy to redefine.

  24 Comments      


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Monday, Mar 21, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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* Rides For Moms Provides Transportation To Prenatal Care
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Question of the day
* Broad Support For Carbon Capture And Storage Across Illinois, “Vital” For The Environment and Downstate Growth
* Here we go again
* Protect Illinois Hospitality - Vote No On House Bill 5345
* Rep. Tarver says CPS general counsel needs to be forced out over rape case (Updated)
* Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work
* It’s just a bill
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Open thread
* Adopt Legislative Fixes For Prior Authorization Denials Impacting Medicaid MCO Patients
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