Here we go again
Thursday, May 16, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Extensive background is here if you need it. I totally agree with Illinois Answers Project reporter Casey Toner…
It’s like if a source has given you bad information over and over and over again for years, but somehow you still manage to make yourself believe that this time they must be right.
* Illinois Policy Institute…
Illinois’ population loss hit more than 75% of its cities, towns and villages in 2023. The biggest loser was Chicago, shedding over 8,200 residents.
Population decline in Illinois struck more than 75% of communities throughout the state last year, hitting communities of all sizes. In total, 980 of Illinois’ 1,294 incorporated places lost population from July 2022-July 2023, according to data released May 16 by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The Tribune also covered the new numbers. I’m sure more stories are on the way.
* The governor was asked about this today…
There is, as you know, every ten years a census that gets done. That’s where people’s doors get knocked on, people are filling out forms, right. And every ten years, we literally count every single person in the state and then in every year between those 10-year periods, 2010, 2020, 2030.
Between those years, there’s something that’s relatively new in the census world called the American Community Survey. And it’s more like a poll. It’s more sophisticated than a poll, but it’s a poll that tries to determine what the changes are year to year in population. That poll has been inaccurate for the state of Illinois for more than 10 years. How do I know this? Because they’ve been doing this poll during the 2010s, from 2010 to 2020. And I saw the poll data, that information every year, and when I was running even I said, oh my goodness, you know, we’re really losing that kind of population. It’s an emergency. It’s something we need to get on, jump on. What populations are we losing? How do we keep them in the state of Illinois? How do we attract others and so on?
It turns out when we actually counted people in 2020, we weren’t losing hundreds of thousands of people. That was false. We counted every person, so you know that the accuracy is there.
Now the question is, okay, well, if the ACS data is wrong every year, and the actual count is right, and that is true, then and by the way, in addition to the number that we originally counted, it turns out, they do something called a post enumeration survey, which basically checks the work. And the post enumeration survey determined, actually Illinois got under-counted. Even though we try to count every single person some people are homeless and don’t get counted. Some people are just hidden and hard to get to and they didn’t get counted.
So what did they determine from that? Illinois gained population. We have more than 13 million people in the state of Illinois.
Well, then 2021 came in, here came another ACS survey, and it showed another year of population loss, reported the survey that had been inaccurate for the 10 years earlier. That survey hasn’t changed. So we’ve gone to the Census Bureau and told them how inaccurate this clearly is. And they believed us and they went around and looked at the cities in the state that applied. We had a group of cities who kind of went to the Census Bureau and said, This is wrong. We’re seeing more people than you are. And what did they do? They upped the numbers, the population numbers for each of those cities that were part of that application.
So it’s clear there’s something wrong with the ACS data. And I know you guys keep reporting that we’re losing population based upon that inaccurate data… When we count people, it turns out we’re gaining population.
* Set aside what the governor says if you want. Fine by me either way. But I’ve documented this nonsense for years. It’s a proven historical fact that the annual surveys have been a joke. A sample from a 2022 column…
By December 2020, those annual Census estimates showed Illinois had lost about 240,000 people, or 2% of its population.
“Illinois is a deepening population sinkhole flanked by states that are adding people, businesses, jobs,” the Chicago Tribune editorial board opined. “The estimated Illinois population is 12,587,530, down more than 240,000 since the 2010 census. That’s more than Waukegan and Naperville, combined.” […]
When the official 2020 Census count showed those previous estimates were wildly wrong and Illinois’ net population loss was “only” 18,000 people, those same folks either changed the subject or harrumphed that, whatever the case, Illinois was still a net loser and had fallen to the rank of sixth-largest state behind Pennsylvania. […]
As you probably know by now, the Census Bureau admitted last week that it had screwed up Illinois’ decennial headcount, and the state actually grew by about 250,000 people – that’s almost a 500,000-person swing from the December 2020 estimate.
- Phineas - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 1:09 pm:
Like the cicadas, these census data doom grifters emerge from the ground periodically to scare everyone. Please just go away
- TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 1:12 pm:
Some of those numbers in the Tribune article showing the granularity down to the town level, are strange to put it nicely.
I’m 100% sure Wilmington didn’t start with a total of 91 residents, and dropped down to 88 residents. It’s not a county boundary thing, as Wilmington is 100% within the boundaries of Will County.
Similarly, the numbers for Joliet show up in both Will and Kendall County since the city limits extend out into the next county. However, the population for Kendall county just lists the total population of the entire city, the vast majority of which is in Will County. The exact same population number shows up in the Will County breakout. This is just sloppy, because I know for certain the ACS breaks down population of cites in multiple counties to show the population in each individual county, and not the way it is being presented here.
I’m betting the authors of this didn’t think anyone was going to take the time to look at the actual numbers, so they don’t care about accuracy. The intent being to get the headline, and then provide an endless stream of similar articles then based off this incorrect analysis, to drive traffic back to the Trib.
Honestly, at this point I’m actually finding myself reading professional and scientific journals to get news these days. What’s left of local newspapers, especially locally, has turned into clickbait at best and just a willing PR mouthpiece for local politicians at worst. It may be less timely, but it is orders of magnitude more accurate.
- low level - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 1:27 pm:
Downtown Chicago has easily tripled in residents since 2010. High rise condos in places you never thought possible way back when.
- Said It - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 1:34 pm:
Illinois Policy Institute is like AI without the intelligence.
- IML lover - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 1:40 pm:
Are there any credible statistics or sources that say that we’re growing? If not, then all of this seems like explaining. And, like Reagan said, “if you’re explaining, you’re losing.”
- Rich Miller - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 1:41 pm:
===then all of this seems like explaining===
LOLOL
You gotta be kidding me.
Also, read the post.
- Rudy’s teeth - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 1:44 pm:
To JB Pritzker’s comment on “ post enumeration survey “…can never imagine that phrase emanating from Darren Bailey’s brain.
- Donnie Elgin - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 1:49 pm:
“Now the question is, okay, well, if the ACS data is wrong every year”
Jb may be correct about population totals - but the ACS is still extremely valuable. Unlike the Decennial Census ACS has granular details like ancestry, language spoken, education, and many more - it also allows search by places such as cities.
- ArchPundit - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 2:04 pm:
===Jb may be correct about population totals - but the ACS is still extremely valuable.
I agree Donnie, but here is the thing–estimates can always be off and before 2010 we saw appeals and some mistakes, but the mistakes seem to be happening all in the same direction suggesting a problem with the sampling. ACS is still useful, but if we are going to trust it, I want the errors to be random and not systemic.
- H-W - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 2:22 pm:
I prefer not to set aside what the governor said, since it is factual information, and true.
Population survey estimates are going to be less accurate where we find larger number of recent immigrants, larger numbers of undocumented workers (not the same), larger numbers of poor people, and and larger numbers of people more generally.
In addition, where we find relatively more mobile populations, we are going to find less accuracy with a one-shot survey of the population.
Surveys are not bad things. They provide us with information. But they also require an accounting for random error, measurement error, and other problems associated with surveys.
Perhaps the real issue here is the politicization of survey results by people who are not prepared to actually interpret survey results.
The IPI is not sufficiently capable of explaining surveys and their results. Otherwise, they would do so. But they do not. Instead, they find data points to suggest the sky is falling so that people will fear the unknown (and untrue), and possibly vote for Republican candidates who do nothing to fix the population problem that does not exist, and then claim they did so (because the problem does not exist).
- Suburban Mom - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 3:34 pm:
Every article like this should be required to say how large the average household was then and now, and how many newly-built units there are of various sizes. Between people having children later, smaller families, more childless-by-choice people, Boomers aging-in-place a LOT longer than their parents did, and incentives for builders to build luxury units, there’s a real squeeze for people looking for 2-3 br apartments or 3-4 br houses that can accommodate a young and growing family.
- Carol Taylor - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 4:15 pm:
The Census numbers include a Statistical Estimate of uncounted non-Citizens. I suspect that is the largest discrepancy between the numbers.
- Michelle Flaherty - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 5:02 pm:
My own research puts the census estimates off by at least 2.3 million poeple for Cook County and it’s up to the agency to prove me wrong and if they don’t, then it means my numbers are the accurate numbers.
- New Day - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 5:20 pm:
“The Census numbers include a Statistical Estimate of uncounted non-Citizens. I suspect that is the largest discrepancy between the numbers.”
It shouldn’t be. Under the Constitution, the Census is a count of people, not citizens.
- Annonin' - Thursday, May 16, 24 @ 7:40 pm:
The whacks at IPI are wrong it is a same they don’t capsize so whoever gives them $$$ might turn to funding local newspapers