* Charlie Cook’s site has a big update on the Illinois map. They’re reporting that Illinois Democrats could wind up with anywhere from eleven to thirteen congressional seats. The Dems currently have eight seats to the Republicans’ eleven. Illinois also lost a district through reapportionment…
* Rep. Mike Quigley, the newest Democrat in the Chicago delegation, will see his 5th CD extended from the north side of Chicago to parts of suburban DuPage County. It will still be heavily Democratic, but will take a bite out of the district of GOP Rep. Peter Roskam (Ill.-06) to allow Roskam’s district to be merged with the DuPage County home of freshman GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren (-14). Roskam and Hultgren would then be forced to fight over one heavily Republican “vote sink” based in DuPage County.
* The 9th District of Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who represents Evanston and much of the immediate North Shore, will eat up Republican-leaning areas of freshman GOP Rep. Robert Dold’s 10th CD, such as Wilmette, Northbrook, and Kenilworth (Dold’s home). While Schakowsky’s district would still be overwhelmingly Democratic, Dold’s district would get more Democratic by adding on more heavily Democratic territory in Lake County, such as Mundelein and some of the Lakes. Dold would also lose his Republican-leaning portion of Palatine, making his reelection efforts much dicier. […]
* Democrats would seek to eliminate freshman GOP Rep. Joe Walsh, a tea party adherent, by moving his McHenry County home into more senior GOP Rep. Don Manzullo’s Rockford-based 16th CD. Manzullo already represents a huge chunk of McHenry County and would surely beat Walsh in a primary. The redesigned 8th CD would include the Democratic havens of Schaumburg in northern Cook County, Carol Stream in northern DuPage County, and the increasingly Hispanic outer suburbs of Elgin and Carpentersville in Kane County, leaving Walsh with no good options. […]
* Republican Reps. Bobby Schilling (Ill.-17) and Aaron Schock (-18) are likely to be merged into one super-Democratic district stretching from Rock Island to Peoria and Galesburg. Schilling would be the “majority stakeholder” in such a new district, and his best hope would be for Schock to abandon his Peoria home base and run in a neighboring seat, though the general election would still be daunting. Schock could conceivably run against freshman GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who lists his home in Kankakee County but originally hails from the Bloomington-Normal area.
The congressional map isn’t finished, so this is all preliminary. The Cook Report repeated some stuff reported yesterday by Greg Hinz, including the claim that the Democrats are creating a new district to lure John Atkinson away from a primary bid against Dan Lipinksi.
- Wumpus - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:13 am:
SO the city is losing population, but nothing is being affected in their representation? The Suburbs seem to be growing or at least losing less and they are losing representation? Maybe I am wrong and I am sure Rich will tell me if that is the case. Victors spoils so on and so forth.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:19 am:
11-13 Democratic seats? That’s more like it. With Obama at the top of the ballot, Illinois should send 4 new Democrats to Congress next term.
Now if only we can get a Democrat elected from Lipinski’s seat…
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:34 am:
Shilling has $98k on hand, Schock has $1.2M. He’ll run to the middle in the primary, and i wouldnt be surprised if he won the General. Watch for him to start dissing the Medicare voucher program soon.
- 10th ward - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:40 am:
Like I said yesterday…Foster wants a rematch and is gearing up. There’s NO way Hultgren runs against Roskam. Pete would easily win. So, Hultgren either retires or takes a shot in new map
- Tamale - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:44 am:
How does Lipinski merit such special treatment?
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:44 am:
===Schock has $1.2M. He’ll run to the middle in the primary===
He may be starting already…
===Schock said the only way Congress is going to cut budget spending and reform entitlements is with shared power.
“It can’t be a Republican solution or a Democrat solution. It has to be a bipartisan solution. It has to take leadership from the president,” Schock told reporters before speaking to seniors at Quincy High School on Tuesday. ===
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:44 am:
===How does Lipinski merit such special treatment? ===
MJM and his daddy are very close.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:48 am:
10th Ward,
You don’t think Foster would take on Roskam, do you? That would be about the same wipeout as Hultren would receive in a primary against Peter.
- Shore - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 11:53 am:
redistrict-the twitter handle for the cook report guy who is doing this david wasserman has the visual.
in that situation it leaves dold with fewer options than walsh. Walsh could run in the 8th, the 10th or the 16th which goes all the way to buffalo grove.
dold however would be squarely in jan’s new district. his best shot would be in the new 10th with moving to north glencoe.
- John Galt - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:03 pm:
However, if they do bottle-up the GOP in DuPage with Roskam as the sole congressman (who could easilly pull a Henry Hyde and stay there for decades), I could see that having an unintended consequence. Ambitious county board members & legislators could simply turn even more of their energies towards Springfield rather than seeing it as a layover to DC. DuPage GOP efforts could expand laterally into swing/lean Dem districts more agressively as things are bottled up at the top.
- Cassiopeia - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:08 pm:
I think the mapmakers may be guilty of prejudicial optimism that may not quite work out they way they envision. Whenever you have intense partisans doing things like mapmaking they have reality blinders on and tend to overestimate partisanship factors that benefit their side.
- Not It - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:08 pm:
I will attempt to not make this a banishing-eligible drive-by comment, but all this talk of using the re-map process to protect friends of those in power, and reliable Democratic candidates, really does make me want to quit this business more than any other disgusting political maneuver that I’ve witnessed before.
I came into politics a dozen years ago because I liked participating in the process and making a difference. Using the re-map process in this manner corrupts the politial process more than Rod Blagojevich could ever try to.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:10 pm:
I wouldn’t count Schock out yet in a new district. The guy has never lost a race, I believe.
Plus, he could challenge any opponent to a situps contest and win in a walk.
- just sayin' - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:11 pm:
Cue the email from Pat Brady/IL GOP with the next whiny online petition in 5…4…3…2…
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:13 pm:
I posted this in the other thread about remapping, and thought I’d toss it in here for comment, too:
An interesting change to redistricting would be to have the Census results available in the year immediately preceding elections, with it implementation immediately after a legislature is seated after the election. Then we could have redistricting as a campaign issue. As things stand now, the remap is too far from an election to remain on the voter’s radar the next time they vote.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:15 pm:
===and tend to overestimate partisanship factors that benefit their side. ===
Well, that didn’t happen in 2001 with the state House and Senate remaps. Both chambers withstood last year’s massive national GOP landslide. The congressional map was different, of course, because it was drawn by our congressional delegation. Not the case this time.
- Ben - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:21 pm:
Looks like Adam Kinzinger and JJJ are in the same district according to Wasserman…
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:24 pm:
=== As things stand now, the remap is too far from an election to remain on the voter’s radar the next time they vote.===
Huh? The census numbers just came out a few months ago. The next election will be under the new map, and petition circulating starts in August. In 18 months there will be an election with the new map. I think voters will remember it quite clearly when they see all of the unfamiliar names on the ballot.
Are you suggesting we move the census two years earlier? Or that we delay map-making until two years later? Your suggestion doesn’t make any sense.
- Abandon Ship - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 12:50 pm:
Man, have times changed. Years back, I never thought that the words “Democratic havens” and “Schaumburg” would appear in the same paragraph. Now, it is a fact.
Jan Schakowsky’s greatest value to the Democrats is that her district can be gerrymandered into various shapes that slice into GOP precincts in such a manner as to render them meaningless. It happened when the 9th Congressional was twisted into Edison Park and suburban Park Ridge (you should see the ugly looks that some people direct at Jan when she makes public appearances there) and it looks like history may be repeating itself.
Controlling the process can nullify wishes of the voters. Welcome to Illinois.
- LouisXIV - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 1:11 pm:
I’ve seen maps that would give the Dems even more seats if the GA was really willing to gerrymander most of the districts. The GOP will be gerrymandering the Dems out of seats (even did it mid decade down in Texas) in states where they control the redistricting process so it’s only fair that the Dems screw the Reps here.
It’d be fascinating to see what the districts would look like if they were drawn along the lines of the League of Women Voters’ proposal, with a computer drawing them and with the idea of keeping counties/communities/neighborhoods together instead of protecting incumbents.
- Shemp - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 1:17 pm:
I still remember in high school when I was idealistic and thought government was out for good and representation these days. Gerrymandering was more of a history note than present day note… of course, that high school wasn’t in Illinois…. (sigh)
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 1:19 pm:
Shemp, if you had gone to school in Illinois, perhaps you would’ve received a more realistic education. Just sayin…
- DuPage Dem - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 1:27 pm:
After getting close to soiling myself from disappointment about a potential 9-8-1 map, I feel much more at ease.
I think Hultgren/Roskam primary has the potential to be a competitive match. They’ve represented many of the same parts of DuPage so GOP voters know both of them well there. I think this becomes even more true if this district extends west to include GOP areas currently represented by Hultgren in Kane, DeKalb, and Kendall. Roskam would clearly have the advantage because of money, his leadership position, and organization, but I think it could be competitive.
- franklin - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 1:41 pm:
Any idea of downstate districts? Kinsinger, shimkus, johnson, etc?
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 1:49 pm:
DuPage Dem,
Ahhhhhhh…. no for a reasons too many to list. Roskam wins hands down.
- Ela Observer - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 1:55 pm:
Walsh rents his home in the upper right corner of McHenry County. If the Wasserman map is correct, Walsh would have to run in the 16th (likely against Manzullo). He could make a case for running in the nearby (and much bluer) 10th. He would have to move to justify a run in a far-away (and bluer) 8th.
- Apple - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 2:03 pm:
Walsh wouldn’t HAVE to run against Manzullo. He would not be the first or last congresscritter to not live in the district he aims to represent.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 2:04 pm:
Ela Observer,
There are no rules that say a Congressweasel must live in his district.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 2:12 pm:
@Rich - don’t be shocked if Schock praises Obama at the end of the day. In fact, I think after the bin Laden raid, Schock pointedly praised the president while shilling’s statement made no mention of Obama.
Cincy - Roskam’s sitting on $1.4 million to Hultgren’s $300k. Thats probably enough reasons.
- D.P. Gumby - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 2:24 pm:
Now we’re talking about a map to be proud of…my faith is being restored in the Illinois political mapping process!
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 2:25 pm:
YDD,
I am pretty familiar with both campaign organizations. If the money was reversed, Roskam would still win.
- John P. - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 2:35 pm:
I am slightly confused without seeing a map, so does this mean that CD-13 will be split between (Quigley, Kinzinger and Hultgren/Roskam) current district is that correct?
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 2:39 pm:
–Gerrymandering was more of a history note than present day note… of course, that high school wasn’t in Illinois…. (sigh)–
Where was the Camelot that you were educated where gerrymandering (a phrase as old as the Republic) wasn’t an issue? I’d be fascinated to know the place and era where politicians, on their own, didn’t try to maximize advantage through the map.
My favorite gerrymander quote came from the late Phil Burton of California, a U.S. House member and state power from the Bay Area.
In presenting the map he drew to Assembly Dems he said. “Some of you are as safe as in your momma’s arms. Some of you are going to have to work harder. And some of you got (verb that former Gov. Blago would use).
Same as it ever was.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 2:44 pm:
I don’t think that even the most energetic gerrymanderer can get Quiqley to the 13th. In order to accommodate the loss of population in the 5th, it will probably be sent straight west into the eastern part of the 6th (Elmhurst, etc). Then the 6th would be sent west to get the right number of people in it, snarfing a chunk of the 13th, which would probably include Hultgren’s home.
Remember, even though Chicago lost 250,000 people, it must keep the same number of Congressional Districts!
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 3:04 pm:
Is Quincy High School even in Schock’s current district?
Very curious to see whether they put any effort into trying to craft a Central Illinois swing with the college towns, Pekin and Decatur or don’t even bother.
- Ela Observer - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 3:06 pm:
I am aware the US Constitution does not require Reps to live in their districts. However, if Walsh ran again in the 8th — as things stand — his home address would be 25 miles out-of-district. The Republican & Democratic opposition would hammer him with this. Especially after making a big show out of moving INTO the 8th, prior to the 2010 election. He may conceivably run again in the 8th. But I would expect to see him to move again.
- Conservative Veteran - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 3:14 pm:
Cincinnatus, Rep. Hultgren represents the 14th Dist., and Rep. Biggert represents the 13th.
- reformer - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 3:32 pm:
As Republicans get ready to complain, here’s a link to today’s Daily Herald article about GOP gerrymandering with the county board districts, “DuPage incumbents pushing competition off the map?” http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20110518/news/705189920/
- DuPage Dem - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 3:41 pm:
Cincy,
I agree Roskam is the overwhelming favorite, but depending on what the district looks like I think it could be interesting. This doesn’t mean I think Hultgren could win, but maybe at least make it somewhat competitive. Something like 58% to 42%.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 3:57 pm:
That article made my head spin. It’s offensive enough that the map will be gerrymandered, but it’s even more aggravating that the mapmakers have made their deals and proposals so difficult to understand that they will further alienate voters. Yeah, I know that’s nothing new. But it doesn’t make it right. Government should be kept simple enough to attract the interest of everyone. Instead, we are going to have another ridiculous map. And if that article is right, why on God’s green earth isn’t MALDEF screaming from the mountain that only one district is going to be Hispanic?! Rich’s recent account in a Cap Fax edition of their anger towards the state map and their demands at creating new state districts should spill over to the Congressional map. They must’ve cut a deal.
If the NJ report is to be believed, it is concurrent with my long-held thoughts that the 17th & 18th CDs would be merged, that Jerry Costello would swallow much of southern Illinois and that John Shimkus will see his district move a tad (or more) northward. But what of Timmy Johnson? Surely his tank is almost out. I can’t imagine him running in a competitive primary or even against a hard-charging general opponent.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 4:01 pm:
Joe Walsh is the easiest target. Of all the winners, he was one of the more national flukes of 2010. Dold proved himself an able campaigner and Bobby Schilling is the real deal. One other thing to consider is that the NRCC will go to the mat for Peter Roskam. He’s in GOP Leadership, so I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into the DCCC pipe dream that they can take him out even with a remap. I know Obama will easily win Illinois in 2012, but I don’t think his numbers will be as good as they were in 2008.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 4:01 pm:
Sorry if I missed it, but is Biggert in the “vote sink” in Dupage also and presumably retiring after this term?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 4:14 pm:
@Team Sleep -
The reason there’s not another “Latino” Congressional district is the diaspora has become more dispersed, unlike African Americans who remain largely segregated.
- Bemused - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 4:20 pm:
Not sure what will happen with Schock in the future he is a slick young man. I can say this. Last time Organized Labor was advised to play nice with him because there was little chance he would not win. Also it was felt that Ray Lahood would advise him not to stray to far right. If there were a good chance a Dem could win Labor may get off the fence. I will note his Springfield office was done by Sam McCanns Consruction Co.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 4:25 pm:
–The reason there’s not another “Latino” Congressional district is the diaspora has become more dispersed–
I’m not sure that diaspora is the correct term here, considering a big chunk of the United States was Mexico about 160 years ago.
- Seriously? - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 4:49 pm:
Um, pretty sure Oak Park wasn’t part of Mexico…
- John Galt - Wednesday, May 18, 11 @ 7:12 pm:
“why on God’s green earth isn’t MALDEF screaming from the mountain that only one district is going to be Hispanic?!”
Because there just might be two. I could see the Elgin/Glendale Heights/Addison going Hispanic depending on the candidate. It couldn’t be a hard left candidate, but there’s potential for a minority pick-up in that district.
- anon - Thursday, May 19, 11 @ 12:36 am:
I think Dold is much more vulnerable than Walsh. Walsh is in his district, campaigning literally every single weekend at restaurants, coffee shops, etc. His army of volunteers attends his events with religious fervor (Walsh’s “groupies?”), he’s gaining a national reputation as Sarah Palin with an English degree, and he continually outraises every Republican in the state. Walsh surprised Democrats in ‘10, and he’ll do it again if they don’t start taking him seriously.
Springfield Democrats would be wise to focus on IL-10, which can easily be shaped to be a strong-D district that might even be hospitable for a progressive congressman along the lines of Ilya Sheyman.