36 Comments - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 11:52 am: ===National Republicans have begun to intervene in a handful of key Senate and House battlegrounds where state parties are in disarray, seeking to head off the possibility that local mismanagement could cost the party control of Congress.=== How you are SEEN, and how you THINK you are seen can sometimes be a harsh light of truth. If you are a Republican in Illinois, and you want to really know how the ILGOP is doing??…Use the National “sunglasses”, not the “rose-colored” glasses of the ILGOP. What do I think the ILGOP’s reaction will be to this? CHAIRMAN BRADY TOUTS NATL GOP’S FAITH IN ILGOP Wait for it …3, 2, 1, …. If Tom Cross and Christine Radogno get Veto-Proofed this cycle, their caucuses need to vote in different leaders. If Cross and Radogno get to keep their leadership roles AFTER this MAY occur, we republicans will hear every exuse, without a single solution. Those caucuses will be adding to the failures of my party by voting in the weakness that gave us zero power unless Madigan and Cullerton screw up so bad, it goes to overtime. The new strategy is … “Hope” for overtime??? We as a party must be real in our assessment of who are … and what we need to do to get where we need to be. When Bill Brady lost, we lost so much more than the Mansion. At what point do we look at this as bottom and move on from the fiasco of failed leadership, be it the ILGOP and the Caucus leaders? Now … add to the possibility of all the mistakes compounding to losing the map for another 10 years, and a fractioned party aparatus more concerned about who might get what in the intraparty squabbles, as opposed to taking on the Dems in the precincts. The ILGOP is failing. That is the National perception of our reality here. - titan - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:05 pm: Wasn’t the “no independent bid” part of the new law a new wrinkle? In the past running as an independent was not some warranty of no political ties, it was just a choice to run without party label and was open to any candidate (as long as they hadn’t run and lost in the primary). - cermak_rd - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:13 pm: The ILGOP actually seems to be in better health now than it has in the past. I mean, it managed to get a US Senator and a Comptroller elected last cycle. It’s worst problem, as I see it, is it is no longer competitive in large swaths of the cook county burbs. When Edgar and Thompson could win, they did it by getting votes in the burbs. Increasingly, the ILGOP has had to fall back to make DuPage their firewall. How long before they have to fall back west of Elmhurst? - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:22 pm: ===this is kind of insulting to the Illinois Republicans=== It isn’t “kind of insulting,” it is an actual insult. It is an indictment of the clown show the ILGOP has become. It’s going to take more than cash to fix what is wrong with the Illinois Republican party. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:25 pm: ===The ILGOP actually seems to be in better health now than it has in the past. I mean, it managed to get a US Senator and a Comptroller elected last cycle.=== Candidates that appealed to moderates, did well in Cook and the Collars. That is real. That is how we got jbt and Kirk across the finish line, and even more specifically, got them across because there was no field operation go get fence sitting repubs out to vote for others than jbt or Kirk. Brady hiding from Cook voters figuratively and not having a field organization, actually,… Plummer hiding from everyone. WHO were the AG and SOS candidates????? We are doing better when we have no one to run? At least Rutherford ran and lost, but got rewarded later when he ran and won later!! You need the “Edgar” percentages in Cook to win. You can’t get those if you just “give up” willy-nilly on Cities, Townships, and Counties. Further … Edgar era field organizations are non-existant. There is zero strategy, be it from a specific campaign, or the ILGOP to get down to street level like Edgar’s crew did in the Townships and in Chicago, picking off their winning formula. There is none of that in my party RIGHT NOW. You have to go back to Edgar, to Jim Ryan for AG #1, to George Ryan pre-scandal … that era of getting dirty in the precincts, getting the numbers and getting it DONE on ELECTION DAY is gone. We have had none of that. Are we in better shape? Have to say no, sadly. - Esteban - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:26 pm: Does anyone except the two major parties benefit from tougher ballot access laws? - wordslinger - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:26 pm: –These “orphan states,” most notably behemoths with traditionally weak parties like California, Illinois and New York, are increasingly the focus of top GOP officials in the nation’s capital this spring.– It’s a recent tradition. California used to be the center of the national GOP. It wasn’t that long ago that Pataki, D’Amato and Guiliani ran New York. Republicans had the Illinois’ governor’s mansion for a generation. The ascendance of the hard right Dixie Republicans and their never-ending auto-de-fes in the name of ideological purity have wiped out more than a few state Republican parties. Look at New England. Right now, true believers are trying to burn Lugar and Hatch at the stake because they’re allegedly not pure enough. In Illinois, you can’t blame Pat Quinn, the Cutback Amendment, Madigan or “the Chicago Machine” for a state party that offers up Alan Keyes and Bill Brady in statewide races. - It's Just Me - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:27 pm: Oswego Willy, I have officially tired of your anti-Cross mantra no matter what, so let me school you: if Cross and Radogno are veto-proofed out it will be because Madigan used sophisticated computer software to draw gerrymandered districts, combined with “home-state” excitement for Obama, as well as a 5 to 1 fundraising advantage for DPI. The reason the ILGOP is failing is because people like you think ultra-conservative candidates should win primaries because they will somehow magically win the general. I got news for you: Mark Kirk won and Bill Brady lost. Learn a lesson from that. And here is the real irony: if people like you hadn’t forced a loser like Bill Brady on us, Dillard would be Governor now instead of Pat Quinn, and what kind of legislative map would Dillard have approved? - wordslinger - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:28 pm: –WHO were the AG and SOS candidates?????– LOL. Can anyone say without the benefit of google? - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:32 pm: - It’s Just Me - Read Exactly what I post. I can care less that Brady loss be he a conservative or a moderate. I care SOOOO much that the Dem governor signed the Dem map because both caucuses are in a minority. Read all I post. If you think I am a blind conservative, touting Brady and Plummer and I am upset about Ideology, then you don’t even know what you are sick of from me! The fact you THINK you know I was for Brady or for anyone and I am an Idealogue reinforces you have no clue why you could be sick of me. BTW, Dillard lost by less than a vote per precinct in DuPage with 40% turnout statewide. If Dillard HAD a field organizaion …well, you do the math. - cermak_rd - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:36 pm: I was thinking Umholtz, but I think he was a cycle or two ago. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:40 pm: ===so let me school you: if Cross and Radogno are veto-proofed out it will be because Madigan used sophisticated computer software to draw gerrymandered districts, combined with “home-state” excitement for Obama, as well as a 5 to 1 fundraising advantage for DPI.=== Translation: “Exuse” to keep failed leadership. ===And here is the real irony: if people like you hadn’t forced a loser like Bill Brady on us, Dillard would be Governor now instead of Pat Quinn, and what kind of legislative map would Dillard have approved?=== Translation: The ILGOP would rather cut off our nose and lose that map, and lose those chambers, and lose Congressional seats, than to look at the big picture, purely politically, and vote for the GOP Governor nominee to be the firewall to that map you so conveniently used as a crutch to keep the failed leadership. Our party fails, when we are willing to work against the greater good of the party, (Repub governor to stop a Dem map … nope, ‘cut that nose and teach ‘em a lesson) How did you school me again? - 42nd Ward - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 12:52 pm: I have a feeling that the law may be struck down if challenged in court. Putting heavy signature requirements on independents is a safer path. The ILGOP’s biggest current problems are (1) Pat Brady, who has been (a) internally devisive beyond belief and (b) unable to consistently raise funds (Ever wonder why? See (a)) and (2) the Ccok County GOP which is controlled by Liz Gorman, who is a quiet Democrat ally. If you don’t believe (2), take a good look at Gorman’s Democratic opponents in 2002 and 2006. One withdrew (without a slated replacement - when is the last time you heard of the Democrats not fielding a candidate for Cook County Commissioner?) and the other spent so little money that he had no committee filing requirement. Both dive artists have been rewarded with other political positions. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 1:09 pm: - 42 Ward - Interesting take. Chairman Brady - Pretty good snapshot of where the ILGOP is with him. Since I have no knowledge of the Liz Gorman issues, be they real or perceived, I will leave that for you and others. - mark walker - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 1:25 pm: 42d Ward — You definitely schooled me. I thought Liz Gorman WAS a Democrat, and I should have known. - too obvious - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:13 pm: IL GOP is less “orphan” and more like juvenile delinquent. Complete disarray. Chair Pat Brady doesn’t know what he’s doing and the national party is recognizing that. About time. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:18 pm: The Illinois GOP has never recovered from the federal crackdown on patronage abuses under George Ryan. The successes of the Thompson-Edgar-Ryan era were due largely to the ability of Republicans to offer state jobs at SOS and IDOC to Republican patronage workers. After those dried up, Republicans had no field operation to speak of. And since 2006, when it started becoming clear to everyone that the GOP was a permanent minority in the General Assembly, the Republicans’ big money guys have either abandoned them or started playing both sides of the fence. That said, the complaints about the map are tired and absurd. Madigan didn’t complain about the map in 1995, and this map is no worse for Cross than it was for Madigan two decades ago. Cross can’t win the majority because Cross can’t lead. Topinka and Kirk, BTW, won despite the Illinois GOP, not because of them. - Shore - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:26 pm: 1. Of the 3 state parties noted Illinois GOP is in the best shape. They can at least take heart in that. 2. I think the 2 key words there are “set aside”. Correct me if I am wrong that does not mean they will actually spend that money here. 3. I think superpacs at the congressional level are a sleeper issue that’s just as important if not more so this year. What stories I’ve seen suggest there are none on the democratic side that are having any kind of success while you’ve got groups like rove’s shop on the right and a few others which I think I saw are going to invest in house races. In races like schillings and dolds where you have challengers running their first races for congress, that could play big. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:35 pm: YDD… ===The Illinois GOP has never recovered from the federal crackdown on patronage abuses under George Ryan. The successes of the Thompson-Edgar-Ryan era were due largely to the ability of Republicans to offer state jobs at SOS and IDOC to Republican patronage workers.=== If someone could be more right than 100% on a issue, it you on this. Living in Kendall County and dealing with DuPage and Kane Counties where Oswego sits, we have those elected “Precinct Committeemen” who clamor and tout how they run their precincts, and then when the tapes (I am old school, sorry!) come in, they win by 12 votes and say, “Yeah, they were against me” … Really … did you walk you precinct … Answer: “I called the people I knew, you know, just to work it.” Folks, that ain’t working it! YDD, You can not be more right if you were given the “4″ in a “2+2″ equation. The real patronage armies are gone, and they are not coming back. That being said, the aparatus that is left, the elected precinct “leaders”, the “committeemen” are not filling the vacuum, actually, they are hurting it by making County leaders think those precincts are covered. Worse … than a paper tiger. ===And since 2006, when it started becoming clear to everyone that the GOP was a permanent minority in the General Assembly, the Republicans’ big money guys have either abandoned them or started playing both sides of the fence. That said, the complaints about the map are tired and absurd. Madigan didn’t complain about the map in 1995, and this map is no worse for Cross than it was for Madigan two decades ago. Cross can’t win the majority because Cross can’t lead. Topinka and Kirk, BTW, won despite the Illinois GOP, not because of them.=== Again, sadly, too true. Cross and Radogno are giving the lobbyist no reason to climb on board. Madigan never lost the lobbyist completely when Lee A. Daniels grabbed the gavel. Once MJM saw his path back, he developed his plan, got his funding in line, and took back the GOP map from Lee, as Pate thrived. There is a lack of leadership to find a path back from the HGOP and the SGOP. YDD, not one vote has been cast, and my party is conceding. Don’t believe me? ===if Cross and Radogno are veto-proofed out it will be because Madigan used sophisticated computer software to draw gerrymandered districts, combined with “home-state” excitement for Obama, as well as a 5 to 1 fundraising advantage for DPI.=== Yes, YDD, we are full of exuses already. As for jbt and Kirk… …with zero field ops, the more moderate you can be, and attract more independents, and be a viable candidate, you will get a win. No field ops … means more appeal needed to the masses. Thanks, YDD. Appreciate the post. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:39 pm: @Shore - The SuperPACs are going to be focused on the White House; unless it becomes clear after Labor Day that Mitt can’t win, they won’t spend a penny on Illinois Congressional races. As someone else explained better than I can, if you’re trying to buy off Congress, you get more bang for your buck in small states with cheap media markets, and you start with their Senators. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:44 pm: YDD, Very much disagree that SuperPACs won’t be focused on anything but the White House. We have seen SuperPACs meddling in Congressional primaries in Illinois at the same time as the GOP presidential primary, why wouldn’t they be meddling in the general when it comes to Congress? Especially in the downstate congressional battlegrounds. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:46 pm: @Willy - Hey, thanks, I’m a fan of yours as well. My advice is completely self-interested. A stronger Republican Party forces the Democrats to field better candidates and govern more effectively. You guys keep doing what your doing — and trust me, the GOP field operation hasn’t changed since 1996 — and my party is free to elect mopes. Joe Scarborough summed up the GOP’s problems pretty well this a.m. It’s not enough for Republicans to be against Obama and the Democrats. Anger and hatred will turn out your base. But if you want them to actually get off their butts, go knock on doors, and talk to swing voters, you’ve got to be FOR something. And I, for the life of me, can’t figure out what Illinois Republicans stand for. And neither can the voters. Ask Cross or Radogno for a solution to the budget, pensions, schools, etc, and you get either empty talking points or crickets. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:50 pm: @hisgirlfriday - Republican primaries? Please. That’s peanuts. Making an independent broadcast t.v. buy is how you move general election numbers. It takes BIG cash, even for the Gill-Johnson seat, which includes the St. Louis t.v. market. - reformer - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 2:56 pm: It seems that Republicans in the know — except Chairman Brady — anticipate the IL GOP will suffer a debacle in November. Obama at the top of the ticket helps down-ballot Dems in the Chicago area. The Madigan map is golden. The GOP is likely to shrink again in the county of Cook. The Mulligan seat is a likely Dem pickup. Kotowski has a good chance to win in his new district, the western part of which is represented now by Millner. I don’t know how to handicap the Mathias-Sente race, but it’s probably Sid’s biggest general election challenge. Does anyone disagree that this state’s hapless GOP is cruisin for a bruisin? - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 3:05 pm: - reformer - Sadly, I do not disagree, however, you can cut loses, you can show leadership, and you can set up an aparatus that can grow and build upon. What I agree with you is that the GOP is in line to take a beating, but what I am asking and pleading for is leadership to not get veto-proofed, to fight on the street level, and show a semblence of a coordinated organization, lead by someone who doesn’t think playing golf at Medinah on Election Day is a priority. If you get veto-proofed (Radogno and Cross), you need to concede your leadership has failed and move out of your Minority Leader Position. That is not too much to ask! - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 3:12 pm: @Oswego Willy - If its any consolation, I’ve been handicapping legislative races for awhile and can’t imagine a veto-proof majority in either chamber, especially the House. However, if it makes you feel any better, the piling up of suburban losses means that Cross is holding onto his leadership spot by the hair of his chinney-chin-chin. I think a coup in the House Republican caucus is much more likely than a Madigan super-majority. - Jeff Trigg - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 3:12 pm: “Also, Shelby can still run as a third party candidate. It wouldn’t be easy, but it might be easier than running as a write-in.” I don’t believe this is correct. Because of the full-slate law in Illinois, if he wanted to run third party, he would have to recruit a full-slate of countywide candidates. This law is being challenged in the courts right now, out of Kane County. I am unaware of any third party candidates that have been able to run for a countywide office without a full slate, with exceptions for a couple who were not challenged off the ballot. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 3:21 pm: YDD That is why that is my “Firewall” of the Veto-Proof majority. I have MJM as 3 short and Rodogno wavering closer that Cross. I would love to see some leadership on something to run on, but there are no signs of that any time soon. Also, I get where you are coming from that the HGOP and the SGOP have nothing they stand for, and I ding them on that too … however, what really fries my eggs … is if they had ANY platform, the two of them have no aparatus to execute in the precincts. It ain’t easy watching Cross and Radogno … - Stu - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 4:23 pm: I do enjoy the inconsistencies of Oswego willy. The only thing he is consistent on is attacking cross. Let’s time travel back to January when Oswego willy was criticizing cross for backing Sweeney over mulligan. Ironic for a guy so bent on field ops that he would support a candidate and GOP committeeman whose organization had atrophied so much she couldn’t get on the ballot. And the field ops ilgop should be replicating according to oswego willy? the ryan SOS team. That’s not field ops, they are called employees. The good thing about Oswego willy? He never lets facts get in the way of a good rant. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 4:29 pm: My post … - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jan 26, 12 @ 10:53 am: Cal, Take to heart that Cross will lose this seat, Mulligan was always the “cat with 9 lives” who kept others at bay, and when it somes down to it, the area is changing and they can’t blame Mulligan for losing. Attention all HGOP candidates: Cross will be with you, until he is not with you … or golfing… one of the three. Why am I on this? What caucus allows its members to go out on their own to get petitions, knowing they seem to always have trouble doing it (also, SGOP, you are not off the hook either with Sen. Jones!)? Either the HGOP is inept and can’t organize, or … if they want you out, they let you end your own career, while picking a replacement … “just in case”. Don’t forget to get a hot dog before you play the back nine, Tom… ==== SO …. I acknowledged that Mulligan was inept… I acknowledged we all knew she was inept … and I think I said that Cross blew it and threw her under the bus … Leaders don’t throw people under the bus. They Knew she couldn’t do it … Cross blows her off, because its easier to back a write-in then build an organization to HELP … Good luck, Stu! Your Pal, Oswego Willy - Shore - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 4:36 pm: most of the superpac focus in the media has been on rove going after obama, but there’s also been a lot of focus on the senate and house. As of this moment the house is the only one of the three that rothenberg cook et al are projecting has a better than even shot at staying in gop hands. We saw last year that Rove (despite a famous fight with kirk in the west wing in 2007 over iraq) and these groups are willing to play even in Illinois and I think you’ll see that again. If Romney flops, the senate stays a 50/50 shot of slipping there will be even more interest in making sure bobby schilling and judy biggert can go back to dc to thwart obama and there is only 1 party right now working on superpacs to ensure that. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 5:04 pm: I agree Shore. Illinois was an expensive state in 2010 and there were lots of other close races going on at the same time but that didn’t stop the SuperPACs from going hard in Illinois on behalf of Kirk and Brady. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 5:45 pm: Oh, and Stu … ===The successes of the Thompson-Edgar-Ryan era were due largely to the ability of Republicans to offer state jobs at SOS and IDOC to Republican patronage workers.=== If someone could be more right than 100% on a issue, it you on this. Living in Kendall County and dealing with DuPage and Kane Counties where Oswego sits, we have those elected “Precinct Committeemen” who clamor and tout how they run their precincts, and then when the tapes (I am old school, sorry!) come in, they win by 12 votes and say, “Yeah, they were against me” … Really … did you walk you precinct … Answer: “I called the people I knew, you know, just to work it.” Folks, that ain’t working it! YDD, You can not be more right if you were given the “4″ in a “2+2″ equation. The real patronage armies are gone, and they are not coming back. That being said, the aparatus that is left, the elected precinct “leaders”, the “committeemen” are not filling the vacuum, actually, they are hurting it by making County leaders think those precincts are covered.=== I think you misunderstood the whole Geo. Ryan, Edgar, issues I addressed above. Read all I write, then comment on what I think. Your Pal, Oswego Willy - RFL - Wednesday, Apr 11, 12 @ 7:37 pm: Regarding Bill Shelby, I’m just impressed to see the Lincoln Courier make it to this statewide publication on a local matter, not involving institution closing or a natural disaster. It makes me wonder how heavily Mr. Miller reads the small town papers around the state. Also, Rich I checked your downstate newspapers link, very nice. I always thought the Charleston paper was the Times-Courier, rather than the Journal, hence the “tc” in jg-tc.com with the Mattoon paper the Journal-Gazette. In addition, Lincoln has an online only periodical at www.lincolndailynews.com. I also noticed the Freeport paper is absent, which is at http://www.journalstandard.com/ Overall, good job on the comprehensive list. - Lakeside Republican - Thursday, Apr 12, 12 @ 5:00 am: Living in Chicago, I am astounded at how much the GOP state leadership thinks anyone in this town is actually listening to them. All the GOP Elite lined up to loudly endorse the candidate who ran against the City Chairman in the Gold Coast, and the guy got something like 30%. That should tell these legends in their own mind just how completely out of touch they are with Republicans who live and work every day in the City of Chicago. I’m trying to remember the last time I saw Tom Cross in this town outside of a fundraiser upstaris at Gibson’s. The only one who shows up to talk to the people is Dan Rutherford, and . . . wait for it . . . HE is respected and he DOES have influence here. (Gee, waddaya know?) As for the others, forget it, and that includes the boot-licking cronies hanging around Pat Brady (that people in Chicago now call “The Pat Frat”). Yeah, I’m looking at you, State Committee members. - OneMan - Thursday, Apr 12, 12 @ 7:32 am: 40 signatures, I think I needed 20 to run for committeeman for a pct that is basically one small subdivision. Seriously dude, ballot access aside for a minute, if you can’t get 40 valid for a countywide you should just sit down. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.