SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Against the wind

Tuesday, Oct 9, 2012

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

There’s not a lot that a state legislative candidate can do when his or her party’s presidential nominee starts to tank.

The presidential race drives turnout to the point where candidates lower on the ballot must struggle mightily to rise above the noise and get their messages heard by distracted voters.

And because there are no statewide races in Illinois this year, that means there are no truly high-profile campaigns to “break up” any presidential advantage or momentum.

Congressional races are all that state legislators have this year to cushion the blow from the top, and down-ballot candidates are increasingly placing their hopes on those contests.

After 2010, downstate Illinois looked like highly fertile ground for the Republican Party. If the GOP had fielded better candidates in the Metro East area near St. Louis, for instance, they might have picked up more seats in the Legislature.

But 2010 is little more than a memory these days, and although downstate still has several opportunities for Republicans, the north and northwest Chicago suburbs appear to be gaining importance. Lots of proud ticket-splitters in that area, along with some viable Republican congressional incumbents (Bob Dold and Joe Walsh), means it could be fertile ground for the Republicans.

The 29th Senate District might be one example. Arie Friedman (R-Highland Park) is running as a moderate Republican. He was slammed hard last month by the conservative Illinois Family Institute for claiming to be pro-choice, which the Republicans actually loved. They believe the attack will help Friedman with more moderate voters, and that’s the path to victory.

The Democrats thought they had this Senate district in the bag, along with both of its House districts (Reps. Elaine Nekritz and Scott Drury). But the area’s congressional races (especially Dold) have the Republicans believing they’re at least in the hunt in all three legislative contests.

Polling shows single-digit advantages for the Democrats in those three races. If Dold’s lead evaporates, then the GOP candidates further down on the ballot are probably cooked. If Dold hangs in there, the others might at least have a shot.

So far, Dold appears to be holding his own. The latest We Ask America poll taken last week had Dold up by almost four points.

The Senate Republicans are hammering Friedman’s Democratic opponent, Julie Morrison, of Deerfield, in the mailboxes these days. Two recent mailers highlighted Morrison’s struggles on three separate occasions to answer questions about where she stood on the state income tax increase.

The Republicans believe that once north suburban voters have “checked the boxes” on abortion, guns and other social issues, they’re open to listening to fiscal messages such as taxes. That worked well for U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk in the area when he was a congressman, and Dold has positioned himself the same way.

Friedman has a history of being conservative, however, so this is somewhat of a GOP makeover attempt, and the Democrats are saying voters won’t buy into it. They may very well be right. The Republicans may have needed a more moderate candidate there.

What looks to be a fairly close congressional race in the Quad Cities/Rockford/Peoria region is working to the Democrats’ disadvantage in state Sen. Mike Jacobs’ (D-East Moline) district.

Jacobs has made some major missteps in his career and has real problems with his Democratic base. And even though President Barack Obama will win the Senate district by a sizable margin, Jacobs still is struggling hard to defeat Republican Bill Albracht.

And Albracht is being helped against the prevailing presidential winds by U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling’s race against Cheri Bustos. The latest We Ask America poll taken last week had Schilling (R-17th) leading by about 2 1/2 points, while Obama led by about 7 points in the district.

This explains why the Illinois Republican Party chairman recently declared that most of his organization’s energy would be focused on congressional races this year. Simply put, the Republicans have to break up Obama’s momentum in his home state and create some of their own momentum in the congressional races to avoid a down-ballot disaster.

Obama helped the Republicans by performing badly in the first presidential debate Wednesday night against Mitt Romney. As a result, he lost some ground nationally and here in Illinois.

That doesn’t mean Obama will lose Illinois or even the election — George W. Bush badly lost his first 2004 debate to John Kerry and still won. But if Obama doesn’t regain his footing, it could mean that Republicans running for Congress and the Legislature won’t have to push so hard against the wind.

* The DCCC has slightly different numbers in the Schilling vs. Bustos race. From a press release…

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a new Anzalone Liszt poll showing Cheri Bustos gaining critical momentum over Congressman Bobby Schilling.

After overcoming a 9 point deficit in August, Bustos now holds the lead over Congressman Schilling 45 percent to 44 percent and is winning independents 39 percent to Schilling’s 37 percent.

This poll also shows that attacks on Congressman Schilling’s record of voting to end the Medicare guarantee just to give tax breaks for outsourcers are working, and Congressman Schilling’s popularity is tanking. President Obama is set to win big in Illinois 17th Congressional District as he did in 2008.

* The DCCC poll also has Obama with an 11-point lead in the district

Barack Obama holds an 11-point lead over Mitt Romney (51% Obama / 40% Romney), in a district he won by 21 points in 2008 (60% Obama / 39% McCain). Obama further consolidating his 2008 coalition could cause Schilling even more problems.

More on the Schilling race later today.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


9 Comments
  1. - Shore - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 10:52 am:

    It’s one of your better columns of the year. The only thing I would add is that the missing piece right now is mark kirk and to people like Ari Friedman he could have really been a huge help with fundraising, their picture together on a mailer or at a rally.


  2. - Buddy G - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 1:04 pm:

    Mike Jacobs bringing Western Illinois to our district along with the sale of the Thomson prison after Bobby Schilling fought against this sale until August is helping Jacobs. Jacobs stood up to Schilling who wanted to sell the prison at a loss of $90 Million which is against the law as Jacobs pointed out. Eventually because Schilling could not get his Republican colleague in the house to agree with the Thomson sale Jacobs friends President Obama and Bustos godfather Sen. Durbin going around Schilling and getting full asking price is what is driving Schilling into the ground and Jacobs and Bustos into the drivers seat.


  3. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:08 pm:

    The suspense has been killing me all day Rich. Are you not posting the Schilling stuff today? I really want to see the race polled by a non-partisan group. So far all of the polls ahve been issued by the campaigns.


  4. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:09 pm:

    ===Are you not posting the Schilling stuff today?====

    TBD


  5. - reformer - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:20 pm:

    How badly will a Walsh blowout hurt GOP legislative candidates in the NW suburbs? None of the races in the 8th are close except Sweeney vs. Moylan.


  6. - Shore - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:27 pm:

    It’s mcsweeney


  7. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 6:54 pm:

    Nice piece, Rich …

    Well done.


  8. - Deerfield Dem - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 9:13 pm:

    The We Ask America Poll of IL-10 has an equal sampling of Dems and Republicans when after redistricting there are far more Dems in the district than Republicans. The NYTimes reported that the district is the most Democratic in the country currently held by a Republican Member of Congress.

    If you properly sample the amount of Dems and Republicans with the current demographics of the district you will see that We Ask America poll actually shows Schneider with a small lead.


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 9:26 pm:

    ===The We Ask America Poll of IL-10 has an equal sampling of Dems and Republicans===

    The universe is equal, yes. But that’s pre-weighting.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Mistakes happen
* Derren and Darwin Sorrells' arrest record
* Isikoff hacking scoop criticized
* Rauner says he won't be involved in Murphy replacement
* Duckworth ridiculed for ineffectiveness as she runs new ad
* Question of the day
* Illinois prison population drops 8.7 percent in two years
* Another attempt to explain the Trump phenomenon
* Rauner schooled on school funding
* Dem calls Rep. Kay "misogynist," Kay fires back
* Falling into his own trap
* They knew the odds were stacked against them going in
* Illinois wasn't the only hacked state elections board
* Putting these pieces together will require more than just "monologuing"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Cable TV buys
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Instagram Stories diverges from Snapchat by suggesting who to follow
* The Information Commissioner’s Office doesn’t like WhatsApp’s new privacy policy
* It seems that HTC Nexus pricing will take a hike
* Verizon LTE Advanced service boasts 50 percent speed improvement
* Nougat should see a total of three quarterly maintenance releases
* Apple schedules September 7 event, iPhone 7 top of mind
* Blass: HTC One A9 getting “S” year upgrade during IFA

* What a Knight! Fulmer hurls five perfect frames for Triple-A Charlotte
* Rodon rolls on to lead White Sox over M's
* 2 pitches, 3 outs: Sox execute efficient escape
* X-rays negative after Eaton HBP on right arm
* Rodon rolls on to lead White Sox over M's
* Shields hopes to get back on track vs. Tigers
* Rodon rolls on to lead White Sox over M's

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Illinois Bills Aimed to Help State's Most Vulne.....
* Cullerton called out for support of Madigan - D.....
* Rauner says he won't be involved in Murphy repl.....
* Illinois bills aimed to help state's most vulne.....
* Ads attach Conroy for saying yes to Madigan - D.....
* Illinois bills aimed to help state's most vulne.....
* Rauner Vetoes Minimum Wage Raise For Caregivers.....
* Illinois bills aimed to help state's most vulne.....
* Illinois bills aimed to help state's most vulne.....


* Ex-Chicago official gets 10 years in red-light camera case
* University of Wisconsin-Madison is top party school in US
* Sheriff: Man arrested in slayings of 3 in Indiana home
* Prosecutor downgrades charge in interstate shooting case
* Cook County issues nearly 10,000 same-sex marriage licenses
* University of Wisconsin-Madison is top party school in US
* Illinois trying to collect 30-year-old overpayments
* The Latest: Sheriff: Man arrested in slayings of 3 people
* Illinois bills aimed to help state's most vulnerable vetoed
* Ex-Chicago official to be sentenced in red-light camera case

* Thirty-year-old SNAP overpayments still being collected
* Despite budget warnings from Rauner, TRS board votes to lower investment estimates
* Progress on U.S. 67 sputters due to lack of funds
* New law makes insurance companies find, pay beneficiaries
* Decatur woman can petition to become nurse under new law
* Illinois redistricting referendum won't appear on ballot
* Comptroller hopefuls argue independence from Madigan, Rauner
* Springfield-area jobless rate remains lowest in Illinois
* Illinois 'Obamacare' health insurance rates up significantly

* Nearly 10,000 'I do's: Gay marriage licenses pile up
* McDonald's picks Omnicom as winner of U.S. creative review
* Drywall maker USG may end dividend dry spell
* FBI detects breach against Illinois voter system


* Emanuel outraged by cavalier police treatment of Rhymefest
* Bears TE Zach Miller, WR Eddie Royal cleared for full practice
* 90-year-old blind woman battered and robbed in Gary
* Two people shot in Englewood
* John Krasinski felt acting in ‘The Hollars’ made directing easier
* Apple expected to show new iPhone at event next week
* Man ejected from pickup, killed in crash near Harvard
* Gustavo Lopez dies at 77; master of Mexican romantic ballads
* Blackhawks mailbag: Who will play with Jonathan Toews?
* Trump zings Hillary after Huma leaves sexting husband Weiner


* Illinois election officials say hack yielded information on 200,000 voters
* Broncos name their starting quarterback: Northwestern's Trevor Siemian
* Man held after three found dead in Sumava Resorts
* This couple creates the perfect summer movie rooftop experience for their friends
* Figure in traffic cameras scandal admits 'immoral' acts, gets 10 years
* Anthony Weiner's wife Huma Abedin is leaving him amid a new sexting scandal
* Charge downgraded against man accused in fatal interstate shooting
* Bank stocks lead morning gains on Wall Street
* Investing: Investing in real estate can be easy
* Italy quake survivors angry at funeral plans as government relents


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Thirty-year-old SNAP overpayments still being collected
* Heather Eagleton: Ending 'step therapy' puts patients first
* Angie Muhs: The ups and downs of online comments
* Bernard Schoenburg: Davis, GOP quick to attack independent Gill
* Statehouse Insider: Do we hafta put all of that money into pensions?
* Their View: Fair maps shouldn't be victims of partisanship
* Raising awareness to end domestic violence
* Mom's legacy lives on through fund
* Despite budget warnings from Rauner, TRS board votes to lower investment estimates
* Progress on U.S. 67 sputters due to lack of funds


* Sentencing continued for FC man who admitted sex charges
* St. Louis man sentenced for meth charges in Williamson County
* Boil Order Lifted
* Updated: MTD fires driver in Marxmiller accident
* Wade's cousin's death part of uptick in Chicago gun violence
* LIVE! Lovie Smith presser
* UI drops in Party School rankings
* Illinois trying to collect 30-year-old overpayments
* MTD fires driver in Marxmiller accident
* Guards: Training lacking to deal with mentally ill inmates


* Charges reduced in Buffalo Grove woman's slaying
* Hoffman Estates sets annual Sept. 11 ceremony
* Long Grove to celebrate Irish Days this weekend
* Tickets to Juan Gabriel's Rosemont show to be refunded
* Prayer group to make Naperville 'A City United in Love'

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Des Plaines Gets $11.4 Million To Purchase......

* Morning Spin: State elections board drops ......

* My conversation about Chicago and schools starts at 2 hours into the Rick Smith radio show.
* Integrating schools works best for all students.
* Illinois Supreme Court Rules Against Independent Map Amendment
* Chicago Aldermen Briefed On Mayor's Police Reform Plans
* Rauner Faces Friday Deadline To Act On Life Insurance Bill (UPDATED)
* Video explains what you need to know about Chicago property tax increases
* At a glance: Poll shows seniors worried about property taxes
* LGBT Advocates Celebrate 10,000 Same-Sex Marriage Licenses In Cook County
* Still time to register for Conservation Foundation’s Sept. 8 event at Inland
* State Election Systems Hacked, FBI Says


* Statement on Redistricting Referendum
* Rauner Administration Takes Action to Help Illinoisans Find Lost Life Insurance Money
* Illinois Residents Encouraged to Register for ‘The Great ShakeOut’ Earthquake Drill - 'Drop, Cover and Hold On’ Drill Set for October 20
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Seeking Flexibility to Improve Delivery of Behavioral Health Care




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller