SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Against the wind

Tuesday, Oct 9, 2012

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

There’s not a lot that a state legislative candidate can do when his or her party’s presidential nominee starts to tank.

The presidential race drives turnout to the point where candidates lower on the ballot must struggle mightily to rise above the noise and get their messages heard by distracted voters.

And because there are no statewide races in Illinois this year, that means there are no truly high-profile campaigns to “break up” any presidential advantage or momentum.

Congressional races are all that state legislators have this year to cushion the blow from the top, and down-ballot candidates are increasingly placing their hopes on those contests.

After 2010, downstate Illinois looked like highly fertile ground for the Republican Party. If the GOP had fielded better candidates in the Metro East area near St. Louis, for instance, they might have picked up more seats in the Legislature.

But 2010 is little more than a memory these days, and although downstate still has several opportunities for Republicans, the north and northwest Chicago suburbs appear to be gaining importance. Lots of proud ticket-splitters in that area, along with some viable Republican congressional incumbents (Bob Dold and Joe Walsh), means it could be fertile ground for the Republicans.

The 29th Senate District might be one example. Arie Friedman (R-Highland Park) is running as a moderate Republican. He was slammed hard last month by the conservative Illinois Family Institute for claiming to be pro-choice, which the Republicans actually loved. They believe the attack will help Friedman with more moderate voters, and that’s the path to victory.

The Democrats thought they had this Senate district in the bag, along with both of its House districts (Reps. Elaine Nekritz and Scott Drury). But the area’s congressional races (especially Dold) have the Republicans believing they’re at least in the hunt in all three legislative contests.

Polling shows single-digit advantages for the Democrats in those three races. If Dold’s lead evaporates, then the GOP candidates further down on the ballot are probably cooked. If Dold hangs in there, the others might at least have a shot.

So far, Dold appears to be holding his own. The latest We Ask America poll taken last week had Dold up by almost four points.

The Senate Republicans are hammering Friedman’s Democratic opponent, Julie Morrison, of Deerfield, in the mailboxes these days. Two recent mailers highlighted Morrison’s struggles on three separate occasions to answer questions about where she stood on the state income tax increase.

The Republicans believe that once north suburban voters have “checked the boxes” on abortion, guns and other social issues, they’re open to listening to fiscal messages such as taxes. That worked well for U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk in the area when he was a congressman, and Dold has positioned himself the same way.

Friedman has a history of being conservative, however, so this is somewhat of a GOP makeover attempt, and the Democrats are saying voters won’t buy into it. They may very well be right. The Republicans may have needed a more moderate candidate there.

What looks to be a fairly close congressional race in the Quad Cities/Rockford/Peoria region is working to the Democrats’ disadvantage in state Sen. Mike Jacobs’ (D-East Moline) district.

Jacobs has made some major missteps in his career and has real problems with his Democratic base. And even though President Barack Obama will win the Senate district by a sizable margin, Jacobs still is struggling hard to defeat Republican Bill Albracht.

And Albracht is being helped against the prevailing presidential winds by U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling’s race against Cheri Bustos. The latest We Ask America poll taken last week had Schilling (R-17th) leading by about 2 1/2 points, while Obama led by about 7 points in the district.

This explains why the Illinois Republican Party chairman recently declared that most of his organization’s energy would be focused on congressional races this year. Simply put, the Republicans have to break up Obama’s momentum in his home state and create some of their own momentum in the congressional races to avoid a down-ballot disaster.

Obama helped the Republicans by performing badly in the first presidential debate Wednesday night against Mitt Romney. As a result, he lost some ground nationally and here in Illinois.

That doesn’t mean Obama will lose Illinois or even the election — George W. Bush badly lost his first 2004 debate to John Kerry and still won. But if Obama doesn’t regain his footing, it could mean that Republicans running for Congress and the Legislature won’t have to push so hard against the wind.

* The DCCC has slightly different numbers in the Schilling vs. Bustos race. From a press release…

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a new Anzalone Liszt poll showing Cheri Bustos gaining critical momentum over Congressman Bobby Schilling.

After overcoming a 9 point deficit in August, Bustos now holds the lead over Congressman Schilling 45 percent to 44 percent and is winning independents 39 percent to Schilling’s 37 percent.

This poll also shows that attacks on Congressman Schilling’s record of voting to end the Medicare guarantee just to give tax breaks for outsourcers are working, and Congressman Schilling’s popularity is tanking. President Obama is set to win big in Illinois 17th Congressional District as he did in 2008.

* The DCCC poll also has Obama with an 11-point lead in the district

Barack Obama holds an 11-point lead over Mitt Romney (51% Obama / 40% Romney), in a district he won by 21 points in 2008 (60% Obama / 39% McCain). Obama further consolidating his 2008 coalition could cause Schilling even more problems.

More on the Schilling race later today.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


9 Comments
  1. - Shore - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 10:52 am:

    It’s one of your better columns of the year. The only thing I would add is that the missing piece right now is mark kirk and to people like Ari Friedman he could have really been a huge help with fundraising, their picture together on a mailer or at a rally.


  2. - Buddy G - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 1:04 pm:

    Mike Jacobs bringing Western Illinois to our district along with the sale of the Thomson prison after Bobby Schilling fought against this sale until August is helping Jacobs. Jacobs stood up to Schilling who wanted to sell the prison at a loss of $90 Million which is against the law as Jacobs pointed out. Eventually because Schilling could not get his Republican colleague in the house to agree with the Thomson sale Jacobs friends President Obama and Bustos godfather Sen. Durbin going around Schilling and getting full asking price is what is driving Schilling into the ground and Jacobs and Bustos into the drivers seat.


  3. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:08 pm:

    The suspense has been killing me all day Rich. Are you not posting the Schilling stuff today? I really want to see the race polled by a non-partisan group. So far all of the polls ahve been issued by the campaigns.


  4. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:09 pm:

    ===Are you not posting the Schilling stuff today?====

    TBD


  5. - reformer - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:20 pm:

    How badly will a Walsh blowout hurt GOP legislative candidates in the NW suburbs? None of the races in the 8th are close except Sweeney vs. Moylan.


  6. - Shore - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:27 pm:

    It’s mcsweeney


  7. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 6:54 pm:

    Nice piece, Rich …

    Well done.


  8. - Deerfield Dem - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 9:13 pm:

    The We Ask America Poll of IL-10 has an equal sampling of Dems and Republicans when after redistricting there are far more Dems in the district than Republicans. The NYTimes reported that the district is the most Democratic in the country currently held by a Republican Member of Congress.

    If you properly sample the amount of Dems and Republicans with the current demographics of the district you will see that We Ask America poll actually shows Schneider with a small lead.


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 9:26 pm:

    ===The We Ask America Poll of IL-10 has an equal sampling of Dems and Republicans===

    The universe is equal, yes. But that’s pre-weighting.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* What a long, strange weekend it was
* Unions file suit in St. Clair County
* Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend
* AG Madigan files TRO
* In re James Dimas
* Question of the day
* Weirdest. Oppo Dump. Ever.
* Big bucks reported by Zopp, Raja
* LIVE Comptroller Munger press conference coverage
* Yet another clock starts ticking down
* Hey, Cardinal fans...
* Rauner makes cheery visit to Illinois State Museum
* The Tier 2 difference
* *** UPDATED x4 *** Attorney General goes to court
* Credit Unions – Protecting Financial Futures
* GOP legislator wants "temporary, balanced budget"
* Food for thought
* The blame game
* Meanwhile, in the real world...
* When Indiana invaded Illinois
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Sony Xperia Z5 rumors return with talk of launch later this year
        * Classic devices get Android 5.1, Motorola Xoom, Samsung Galaxy S II
        * NBA player blames injury on the iPhone 6 Plus
        * Sony commits to its smartphone business, will “never ever sell”
        * Pebble Time custom skins arrive from dbrand
        * Umi shows off Yotaphone 2-like Dual-screen phone with E Ink display
        * Possible iPhone 6s schematic confirms previous rumors

        * UMI ZERO 2 Smartphone To Feature Dual Displays
        * LG G4 S Touted To Run On Snapdragon 615 Chipset
        * China Mobile Also Suggests Cat 6 LTE Coming To iPhone 6s
        * Nikola Tesla Had Apparently Predicted The Smartphone Back In 1926
        * Free Hotel WiFi Becoming A Must-Have On Travelers’ Lists
        * Google Wants To Incorporate Material Design Into Websites
        * Save Half Your Marinade Before Cooking for Contamination-Free Basting

        * White Sox lookback, Part 3: Konerko's slam
        * White Sox, Cubs to honor Minnie Minoso, Ernie Banks with throwback ...
        * Cubs and White Sox to honor legends Banks, Minoso
        * Podcast: Chris Sale goes for the record.
        * Kenny Williams focused on Chicago, but Toronto remains a possibility
        * White Sox Minor League Update: July 5-11
        * Sale heads list of potential Sox ASG reserves

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Illinois budget fights affecting groups serving.....
        * Opinion: Does Gov. Rauner want shutdown more th.....
        * Budget impasse not likely to end soon - nwitime.....


        * Deadly weekend in Chicago highlights city's gang warfare
        * Illinois' games in Springfield include in-state foes
        * Aretha Franklin sings praises of Illinois after highway help
        * Illinois basketball attendance down but 15th in the country
        * Bond set for Quincy man charged in July 4 fatal shooting
        * Ex-Illinois US Rep. Reynolds doesn't show for arraignment
        * Documents reveal details of Chicago woman's killing in Bali
        * New U of Illinois financial task force thinking long term
        * ACLU seeks federal enforcement of Illinois child services
        * Ex-Illinois US Rep. Reynolds doesn't show for arraignment

        * ACLU seeks federal enforcement of Illinois child services
        * Despite state budget deadlock, there are ways out
        * Despite budget deadlock, there are ways out
        * Statehouse Insider: Take the over on when this impasse is going to end
        * Springfield School District has paid nearly $500K in pension penalties in past 6 years
        * East St. Louis paid big legal fees to state senator's firm
        * Illinois Senate honors victims of Charleston church shootings
        * Bill would allow cameras in Illinois nursing homes
        * State employee lawsuit seeks assurance of full pay despite no budget
        * U of I freezes administration hiring over budget

        * S&P's grade on Illinois budget talks: 'failure'
        * Traders forced to quit the pits setting up shop nearby
        * Another hospital is looking for a big brother
        * Chicago doesn't get a downgrade, for a change
        * Schaumburg sees third hotel sale this year


          * Emanuel defends policing plan
          * Gas leak forces evacuation of 14 homes, business in Aurora
          * Oakbrook Center Louis Vuitton burglary may have ties to Minnesota theft
          * Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms to usher in cooler temperatures
          * Man says he was told about Indianapolis house explosion in advance
          * Aretha Franklin sings praises of Illinois after highway help
          * No miracle for some Dead fans: 220 fake tickets seized
          * Probe of man's death at Ribfest continues
          * Fourth Flash: A glance at Tribune's live July 4 coverage
          * Cops: Girl, 17, missing since June from South Side


          * Closing time for Chicago's trading pits
          * Boy, 7, killed during violent July 4 celebrations in Chicago
          * Southwest Side residents work toward racial healing
          * No more 'roar' as famed trading pits come to an end
          * Race to replace ex-Rep. Schock a classic GOP primary contest
          * Coping while black: A season of traumatic news takes a psychological toll
          * Emails show Emanuel, top officials aware of Clinton's private address
          * After pension payment, Chicago Public Schools to make $200M in cuts
          * CPS, Emanuel warn of deep cuts, layoffs to school district
          * The legacy of Willie Dixon on his 100th birthday


          * ACLU seeks federal enforcement of Illinois child services
          * Fullerton, Konar and Reif: Pope Francis' message a chance for Illinois to plan ethically for climate change
          * Despite state budget deadlock, there are ways out
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Independent redistricting proposal could be on 2016 ballot
          * Statehouse Insider: Take the over on when this impasse is going to end
          * Statehouse Insider: Take the over on when this impasse is going to end
          * Springfield School District has paid nearly $500K in pension penalties in past 6 years
          * Letter: Rauner being set up for a fall
          * Angie Muhs: A year later, optimistic and grateful
          * East St. Louis paid big legal fees to state senator's firm


          * Ranked 15th in attendance, Illini won't fall because of move to Springfield
          * News-Gazette Sports Page 07-06-15
          * Area Calendar
          * South Carolina Senate votes to take down flag; House OK still needed
          * Cosby said he got drugs to give women for sex
          * Marcfirst to break ground for two duplexes
          * July 7 UI women's basketball, volleyball, soccer and baseball chat
          * Illini announce Springfield lineup
          * Penny 7-6-15
          * Pekin Daily Times and weekly TimesNewspapers combine news operations


          * Woman sues brother-in-law over son's tractor death near Geneva
          * '2 Broke Girls' actor learned accent in suburbs
          * Carmel tight end commits to North Carolina
          * The Latest: Allred hopes to use Cosby's words in other cases
          * Jindal says Jeb Bush willing to hide GOP principles

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Hoax Durbin letter aims to disrupt Ukraine......
          * State lawmakers make new push for 'positiv......
          * Durbin, Kelly unveil bill to regulate tar-......

          * Space Grant Program restored to encourage ......
          * Sierra Club slams Sen Mark Kirk in... - Th......
          * Sierra Club slams Sen Mark Kirk in Illinoi......

          * "The Late Shift"
          * Day Two: No budget; One month budget extension passes Senate, fails in House
          * Rubio in Chicago Tuesday
          * Rep. Sosnowski Explains Illinois' Partial Government Shutdown [video]
          * NRA warns against equating same-sex marriage with gun rights
          * Rep. McSweeney opts out of legislative pay if budget impasse means state employees do not get paid
          * Ted Cruz endorses Flynn in tomorrow's special 18th CD GOP primary
          * Annual Procession of Vietnamese Monks This Wednesday
          * The Cub Factor: The Real Big 3
          * The Real Big 3


          * State, Teamsters Reach Tentative Agreement - Workers at IDOT, DHS, IDES, and CMS in Cook County to Vote on New Contract
          * Governor Rauner Extends Tax Filing and Payment Deadlines for Businesses and Individuals Impacted by Recent Tornado - Deadlines Pushed to December 31, 2015
          * Illinois EPA Releases Annual Report on Landfill Capacity
          * IDNR Urges Public to Leave Fireworks Displays to Those Who Are Licensed and Trained - Fireworks Show Sponsors Reminded to Check Credentials of Fireworks Vendors
          * Governor Receives Initial Criminal Justice Commission Report




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller