Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Against the wind
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Against the wind

Tuesday, Oct 9, 2012

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

There’s not a lot that a state legislative candidate can do when his or her party’s presidential nominee starts to tank.

The presidential race drives turnout to the point where candidates lower on the ballot must struggle mightily to rise above the noise and get their messages heard by distracted voters.

And because there are no statewide races in Illinois this year, that means there are no truly high-profile campaigns to “break up” any presidential advantage or momentum.

Congressional races are all that state legislators have this year to cushion the blow from the top, and down-ballot candidates are increasingly placing their hopes on those contests.

After 2010, downstate Illinois looked like highly fertile ground for the Republican Party. If the GOP had fielded better candidates in the Metro East area near St. Louis, for instance, they might have picked up more seats in the Legislature.

But 2010 is little more than a memory these days, and although downstate still has several opportunities for Republicans, the north and northwest Chicago suburbs appear to be gaining importance. Lots of proud ticket-splitters in that area, along with some viable Republican congressional incumbents (Bob Dold and Joe Walsh), means it could be fertile ground for the Republicans.

The 29th Senate District might be one example. Arie Friedman (R-Highland Park) is running as a moderate Republican. He was slammed hard last month by the conservative Illinois Family Institute for claiming to be pro-choice, which the Republicans actually loved. They believe the attack will help Friedman with more moderate voters, and that’s the path to victory.

The Democrats thought they had this Senate district in the bag, along with both of its House districts (Reps. Elaine Nekritz and Scott Drury). But the area’s congressional races (especially Dold) have the Republicans believing they’re at least in the hunt in all three legislative contests.

Polling shows single-digit advantages for the Democrats in those three races. If Dold’s lead evaporates, then the GOP candidates further down on the ballot are probably cooked. If Dold hangs in there, the others might at least have a shot.

So far, Dold appears to be holding his own. The latest We Ask America poll taken last week had Dold up by almost four points.

The Senate Republicans are hammering Friedman’s Democratic opponent, Julie Morrison, of Deerfield, in the mailboxes these days. Two recent mailers highlighted Morrison’s struggles on three separate occasions to answer questions about where she stood on the state income tax increase.

The Republicans believe that once north suburban voters have “checked the boxes” on abortion, guns and other social issues, they’re open to listening to fiscal messages such as taxes. That worked well for U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk in the area when he was a congressman, and Dold has positioned himself the same way.

Friedman has a history of being conservative, however, so this is somewhat of a GOP makeover attempt, and the Democrats are saying voters won’t buy into it. They may very well be right. The Republicans may have needed a more moderate candidate there.

What looks to be a fairly close congressional race in the Quad Cities/Rockford/Peoria region is working to the Democrats’ disadvantage in state Sen. Mike Jacobs’ (D-East Moline) district.

Jacobs has made some major missteps in his career and has real problems with his Democratic base. And even though President Barack Obama will win the Senate district by a sizable margin, Jacobs still is struggling hard to defeat Republican Bill Albracht.

And Albracht is being helped against the prevailing presidential winds by U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling’s race against Cheri Bustos. The latest We Ask America poll taken last week had Schilling (R-17th) leading by about 2 1/2 points, while Obama led by about 7 points in the district.

This explains why the Illinois Republican Party chairman recently declared that most of his organization’s energy would be focused on congressional races this year. Simply put, the Republicans have to break up Obama’s momentum in his home state and create some of their own momentum in the congressional races to avoid a down-ballot disaster.

Obama helped the Republicans by performing badly in the first presidential debate Wednesday night against Mitt Romney. As a result, he lost some ground nationally and here in Illinois.

That doesn’t mean Obama will lose Illinois or even the election — George W. Bush badly lost his first 2004 debate to John Kerry and still won. But if Obama doesn’t regain his footing, it could mean that Republicans running for Congress and the Legislature won’t have to push so hard against the wind.

* The DCCC has slightly different numbers in the Schilling vs. Bustos race. From a press release…

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released a new Anzalone Liszt poll showing Cheri Bustos gaining critical momentum over Congressman Bobby Schilling.

After overcoming a 9 point deficit in August, Bustos now holds the lead over Congressman Schilling 45 percent to 44 percent and is winning independents 39 percent to Schilling’s 37 percent.

This poll also shows that attacks on Congressman Schilling’s record of voting to end the Medicare guarantee just to give tax breaks for outsourcers are working, and Congressman Schilling’s popularity is tanking. President Obama is set to win big in Illinois 17th Congressional District as he did in 2008.

* The DCCC poll also has Obama with an 11-point lead in the district

Barack Obama holds an 11-point lead over Mitt Romney (51% Obama / 40% Romney), in a district he won by 21 points in 2008 (60% Obama / 39% McCain). Obama further consolidating his 2008 coalition could cause Schilling even more problems.

More on the Schilling race later today.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

9 Comments
  1. - Shore - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 10:52 am:

    It’s one of your better columns of the year. The only thing I would add is that the missing piece right now is mark kirk and to people like Ari Friedman he could have really been a huge help with fundraising, their picture together on a mailer or at a rally.


  2. - Buddy G - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 1:04 pm:

    Mike Jacobs bringing Western Illinois to our district along with the sale of the Thomson prison after Bobby Schilling fought against this sale until August is helping Jacobs. Jacobs stood up to Schilling who wanted to sell the prison at a loss of $90 Million which is against the law as Jacobs pointed out. Eventually because Schilling could not get his Republican colleague in the house to agree with the Thomson sale Jacobs friends President Obama and Bustos godfather Sen. Durbin going around Schilling and getting full asking price is what is driving Schilling into the ground and Jacobs and Bustos into the drivers seat.


  3. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:08 pm:

    The suspense has been killing me all day Rich. Are you not posting the Schilling stuff today? I really want to see the race polled by a non-partisan group. So far all of the polls ahve been issued by the campaigns.


  4. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:09 pm:

    ===Are you not posting the Schilling stuff today?====

    TBD


  5. - reformer - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:20 pm:

    How badly will a Walsh blowout hurt GOP legislative candidates in the NW suburbs? None of the races in the 8th are close except Sweeney vs. Moylan.


  6. - Shore - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 4:27 pm:

    It’s mcsweeney


  7. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 6:54 pm:

    Nice piece, Rich …

    Well done.


  8. - Deerfield Dem - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 9:13 pm:

    The We Ask America Poll of IL-10 has an equal sampling of Dems and Republicans when after redistricting there are far more Dems in the district than Republicans. The NYTimes reported that the district is the most Democratic in the country currently held by a Republican Member of Congress.

    If you properly sample the amount of Dems and Republicans with the current demographics of the district you will see that We Ask America poll actually shows Schneider with a small lead.


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 9, 12 @ 9:26 pm:

    ===The We Ask America Poll of IL-10 has an equal sampling of Dems and Republicans===

    The universe is equal, yes. But that’s pre-weighting.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Tuesday
* Rauner complains it's "hard to overcome" the "biased" Illinois media
* Question of the day: Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Rate Pritzker's new digital ad
* Recent endorsements: Raoul, Biss, Newman, Villivalam
* Joe Berrios' new radio ad features Jesse White, more attacks on Kaegi
* A make-work program for property tax appeals lawyers?
* Rauner tax hike claim ruled "Mostly False"
* Lawsuits expose more problems at Quincy veterans' home
* Could a Moody's methodology change push Illinois into junk status?
* Republicans get into the "holiday spirit"
* Jesse White's GOP opponent: "I'm extremely ordinary"
* Friday open thread
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Gov. Rauner looks ahead to 2018 - KFVS..
* Illinois’ $2 billion, high-speed rail project i.....
* How the field in the Illinois attorney general’.....
* MILLER: Why Gov. Rauner probably still won’t be.....
* Duckworth responsible for legionnaires issue? -.....
* Illinois Bicentennial Pepsi Can Unveiled - Effi.....
* MILLER: Why Gov. Rauner probably still won't be.....
* Illinois GOP release states Pritzker 'continues.....


* Supreme Court to consider wrongfully convicted man's lawsuit
* City board probes claims of election official impersonators
* Boy, 13, among injured in Chicago shooting near city bus
* Illinois woman sentenced to natural life in child murders
* No charges in St. Paul police shooting that left man dead
* Jury finds Illinois man guilty of rape, torture
* Chicago decides against suing estate of teen shot by police
* Chicago's Rock 'n' Roll McDonald's to remodel, lose theme
* Macon County dedicating prosecutor to opioid cases
* Kirkwood Community College hires new president from Illinois

* Gov. Rauner unveils Bicentennial Pepsi can
* Video gambling numbers level off in Springfield
* Statehouse Insider: Holiday cheer from Rauner to Madigan
* Judge: Video gambling profits must be split with operators
* Under the Dome Podcast: "Objection! (to nominating petitions), Pritzker endorsements
* Schoenburg: Jones leads fundraising in 13th Democratic primary
* Governor candidates want action on Legionnaire’s outbreak at veterans home
* Schoenburg: Pritzker foundation gave $50 million in 3 years
* Families blame state in veterans home Legionnaires' outbreak
* State insurance department promotes ACA sign-up period

* Chicago lawyers: not a diverse lot
* A legal setback for Jimmy John's in wage-theft case
* A health setback for Hunter Harrison punishes CSX stock
* Former top SEC official joins Citadel


* Rush to enroll as deadline nears for Obamacare health coverage
* Zach LaVine needs his back to play nice in order to clear final hurdle
* SNEED: Joe Maddon steps up for immigrants in his Pennsylvania hometown
* Coming in hot: It’ll never be the same with the Cubs as it was in 2016
* Here’s what’s in final tax bill Republicans plan to send to Trump
* AG: DeKalb man ruled sexually violent, will remain in custody
* MITCHELL: We need a broader conversation on sex, workplace issues
* Cook County’s top civil attorney Chaka Patterson resigns
* How the field in the Illinois attorney general’s race is shaping up
* 2 people shot, including 13-year-old boy, in Gresham


* Trump administration forbids CDC officials from using 7 words and phrases
* Some associates think Trump will fire his lawyers if Mueller doesn't clear him by year's end
* 29 best things Breakfast Queen Ina Pinkney ate in 2017
* Ex-cheerleading coach claims she was fired 'out of pure retaliation' after text with student
* Boy, 13, and man wounded in Gresham shooting after fight at gas station
* GOP tax bill slashes rates for corporations and wealthy with smaller benefits for middle class
* Chicago backtracks on suing estate of teen killed by cop; mayor apologizes to father
* 19-year-old killed in crash involving 2 tollway trucks on I-88 near Sugar Grove
* State panel to examine special education practices at Chicago Public Schools
* Well-known suburban lawyer gets probation following DUI arrest, seizure of dozens of guns


» State Week: Why Are People Still Dying From Legionnaires At Illinois Veterans Home?
» Top Three Challenges For Homegrown Star Taking Over Chicago Schools
» Illinois Women Tell Their #Metoo Stories
» Illinois Issues: A Personal Story
» Key Question For Democrats: To Billionaire, Or Not To Billionaire?
» Pritzker To Be First On Primary Ballot
» 3 Years, 13 Legionnaires’ Deaths At Illinois Veterans’ Home
» Protesters Disrupt Meeting, Call For Palos Trustee To Quit Over ‘Racist’ Comments
» Chicago Hospital First To Sue Over Bad Rating
» Cook County Republican Files For Illinois Treasurer Seat


* Gov. Rauner unveils Bicentennial Pepsi can
* Counterpoint: Oil and gas producers talk a better green game than they play
* Point: Our oil and gas producers lead world in cutting carbon emissions
* Thumbs Up: To good behavior being recognized, and rewarded
* Eugene Robinson: Moore's loss proves America has a bigger following than Trump
* Video gambling numbers level off in Springfield
* Statehouse Insider: Holiday cheer from Rauner to Madigan
* Judge: Video gambling profits must be split with operators
* Under the Dome Podcast: "Objection! (to nominating petitions), Pritzker endorsements
* Kathleen Parker: Women's rage unleashed


* A 37-year-old mystery solved: Reopening case led to confession in Coles County Airtight Bridge murder
* Flames consume machine shed north of Fisher
* Take an inside look at new upgrades to O'Fallon movie theater
* O’Fallon movie theater debuts grill menu, cocktail lounge
* Five at 5: Homes shine with Christmas spirit and 4 other stories you should read
* Semi, 9 other vehicles involved in I-55 collision with serious injuries
* Some offended after Montemagno compares SIUC to a car often called the worst ever made
* Serious crash involving semi, 9 cars on I-55
* 10 prep events to catch before 2017 concludes
* BettPlex to be named TBK Bank Sports Complex


* Suspect in Arlington Heights home invasion held without bail
* Hersey honors veterans past and present
* Panthers owner under investigation for workplace misconduct
* Northbrook teen dies in I-88 crash near Sugar Grove
* Toledo coach Jason Candle sign 6-year contract

* High school football: Randy Hultgren lauds...
* Our Reps: Randy Hultgren Sides With Party ...
* Suburban Democrats line up to challenge Ro...
* Tax cuts for Scrooge McDuck? Dispelling my...
* Strong early filing for Illinois attorney ...
* Efforts continue to have Warrenville Post ...
* Hultgren, Roskam help deliver tax bill for...
* Kendall GOP chief to challenge Kinzinger i...
* Editorial: Roskam gets gun vote right, Hul...
* Letter: Consumers taking a hit - Northwest...

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* CBO: Graham/Durbin Dream Act would add $25......

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Duckworth responsible for legionnaires iss......

* Rauner joins Kennedy in calling for Berrios to resign. But isn’t there an election coming up?
* Got Some Rock N Roll Music Talent? Audition For Black Ensemble's Next Play
* Joe Berrios recycles.
* The Weekend In Chicago Rock
* The World's Greatest College Football Report's Bowl Game Preview Part 1
* Comedian Matt Braunger at Lincoln Hall, and more of the best things to do in Chicago this weekend
* Hitting Left with the Klonsky Brothers episode #44. Emma Tai of United Working Families.
* David Axelrod plays his role as hatchet man for Cesspool.
* Azazel Jacobs’s The Lovers is the most underrated American movie of 2017
* Durbin and Duckworth endorse Pritzker for governor


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Samsung Galaxy Note 8 X 99AVANT Special Edition costs $1,828
* Synaptics will provide in-display fingerprint sensors for Vivo smartphones
* Google’s Tango AR program ending in March with a total of two phones
* iTunes app for Windows 10 (and Windows 10 S) delayed indefinitely
* TouchArcade iOS Gaming Roundup: Bridge Constructor Portal, Fez, Inside, and More
* [Deal] Check out these great stocking fillers from Anker
* Samsung to Announce New Flagship Galaxy S9 and S9 Plus Smartphones in February

* Former White Sox players return to rep team
* White Sox news that doesn’t involve Manny Machado
* Former White Sox players return to rep team
* The cracks in the White Sox-Manny Machado rumors
* Hahn mum on any White Sox-Machado talks
* Hahn mum on any White Sox-Machado talks
* White Sox trade Rule 5 pick Tocci to Texas


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller