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Davis poll confirms huge lead

Wednesday, Dec 4, 2013

* Roll Call

Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., holds a large lead over his GOP primary opponent, former Miss America Erika Harold, according to a poll obtained exclusively by CQ Roll Call.

Davis leads Harold by a massive 48 points in the poll of likely GOP primary voters commissioned by his campaign and conducted by the GOP survey firm Public Opinion Strategies. Twenty percent of respondents in the poll said they were undecided.

The survey showed Davis with 63 percent and Harold with 15 percent.

The results underscore Harold has a monumental challenge ahead to defeat Davis in the primary — which is just over three months away on March 18. Ninety-three percent of respondents said they had heard of Davis, while 45 percent said they have heard of Harold.

The poll interviewed 400 likely Republican primary voters via live telephone surveys between Nov. 19 and Nov. 21. It had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Harold also has a severe cash disadvantage, reporting just $99,000 in cash on hand at the end of the last quarter. Davis reported $882,000 in the bank at the time.

* Those numbers are almost exactly the same as an October 10th We Ask America poll

The poll of 859 Republicans, taken Oct. 10, showed that Davis was the choice of 63 percent of the likely Republican voters, to 16 percent for Harold. About 21 percent of those polled were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percent.

A poll taken exactly four months earlier, on June 10, by the same Springfield polling firm, We Ask America, found that Republicans favored Davis, 53.55 percent to 16.38 percent.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    Rodney …over 60%, Erika Harold under 16%.

    A …. 9 to 1 … financial advantage for Davis over Harold….

    When does the Erika Harold Campaign go from “Foly” to “Tragic” to “Insanity”?

    “Never tarnish your brand unless you can win, or the loss creates a larger windfall in the near term.”

    Erika Harold’s Illinois relevency… “the people who should know her best, but support her least” … is now being seen as farce.


  2. - Jeff Trigg - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 1:44 pm:

    I’d probably vote for Harold if she knocked on my door and asked nicely. I’d also show her a photo of Davis with a mullet from our college yearbook. But no precinct walkers in this district that I’ve seen yet.

  3. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 1:49 pm:

    I haven’t watched this one that closely, but weren’t the Johnson people supposed to be doing some heavy lifting for Harold?

    She’s potentially a heckuva candidate, on paper. Did the Johnson people sell her a bill of goods on what they could do for her?

  4. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 1:50 pm:

    The Johnson boys will tell you this means “we are holding our base.”

  5. - where's the credibility? - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 1:59 pm:

    It’ll pick up during the 14 debates she wants to have….

  6. - Son of SuperAbe2014 - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 2:02 pm:

    I understand Dan Proft is Erika’s campaign adviser. Dan’s credo: From Alan Keyes to Erika Harold; I’m just crazy about crazy.

  7. - LincolnLounger - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 2:11 pm:

    It’s been so long since Tim Johnson has had a real race that he no longer has an “operation.” This was and remains a Champaign County and staffer temper tantrum on behalf of someone who has a significant sense of entitlement. None of that matters, however, because race and allegations of intolerance will prevail. Doug Ibendahl, one of the key cheerleaders of the effort to “land” the Alan Keyes juggernaut, will ensure that.

  8. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 2:22 pm:

    LL, even after all these years, the Alan Keyes episode seems unreal, not even possible.

    The LaRouchie and Scott Lee Cohen fiascos were the result of state Dem leadership taking their eyes of the ball.

    Keyes was a conscious, deliberate choice of the state GOP Central Committee — leaders from all over the state in agreement to the course of action.

    Still hard to wrap the head around that one.

  9. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 2:27 pm:

    Those ex-Johnson staffers owe Harold an apology.

    A profuse one.

    She could have been cruising to victory right now in many other races at the state or local level.

  10. - LincolnLounger - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 2:28 pm:

    I agree, Wordslinger. The efforts of Rauschenberger and Syverson, as well as the spectacle of the conservative “leaders” outside rattling their car keys and chanting, “We want our Keyes!” is something I will never forget. Interestingly enough, nearly all of them now deny it, but the image is seared for me, and Ibendahl was one of the noisiest (despite his amnesia.)

  11. - where's the credibility? - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 2:37 pm:


    Pics or it didn’t happen.

  12. - Whatever - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 2:42 pm:

    LL - I, too, remember the spectacle well. And as for Harold, you’re also correct. I’m just waiting for another Ibendahl screed about this race.

  13. - Downstater - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 3:22 pm:

    People keep talking about the “potential” Erika Harold has in the Republican Party. First, after she didn’t get the appointment for this seat she did little or nothing during the last election cycle to help Republican candidates. They could have used her on the campaign trail. Second, if Erika is gullible enough to believe folks telling her she had a chance in this race, her political instincts she be questioned. Now, she walks away from this race crushed and her promising career is down the toilet.

  14. - John Boch - Wednesday, Dec 4, 13 @ 3:29 pm:

    Make no mistake, she’s very charming and charismatic in person. I’ve seen her three or four times on the campaign trail. She’s giving it her best shot.

    Davis thus far? Haven’t seen hide nor hair of him. But if I had a 50 point lead, I wouldn’t feel the need to hit the campaign trail real hard either.

    I asked Erika why not run for Naomi’s state rep seat and it was, IMO, her weakest answer: (paraphrased) “Because I can’t really make a difference there like I could in Congress.”

    She and I disagreed on the potential for making a difference in the Illinois House.

    She’s (very) pretty, well-spoken, and a dream candidate.

    It’s too bad she’s bent on a Quixotic quest for unobtainium.

    Unless Davis has a heart attack or gets hit by a bus, the odds of her winning this race are somewhere between slim and none.

    Sorry, Erika.


  15. - PickingCherries - Thursday, Dec 5, 13 @ 1:04 pm:

    Let’s get real: all the trashing of the Harold campaign is ridiculous and unnecessary. She’s a solid candidate across the board, and this party needs more bright and beautiful women like her.

    That being said, maybe we should be encouraging Erika to take on a Dem …and get behind her. Or encourage her to hop on the Republican ticket for Lieutenant Gov. …and get behind her.

    The party should be helping her get into a race she can win, rather than thrashing her for picking a battle that winds up wasting her potential.

  16. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Dec 6, 13 @ 7:39 am:

    When you are down 48 points and can’t break 20%, the only people you are fooling to your “relevency” is yourself, and the Dopes who keep telling you, “you are relevent”

    We tried to help, we tried to tell her “this is Folly”. Some candidates never get the message until its too late.

    Same song, different candidate, and this time its Erika Harold. Nothing new.

    What a waste.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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