The Vest’s campaign is 4 years too late. The general public has caught onto the right’s small government/trickle down/ayn rand/job producer charade. Yes, unions aren’t happy with Quinn, but they don’t have a death wish either, so asusming The Vest wins the primary, he will have money, commercials, and the far right wing. And that’s not enough in this state. If the Vest was a veteran, nice guy, wasn’t involved in pay to pay scams, didn’t clout his daughter into a CPS school, he might have a chance, but he’ll be dirtied up in the general enough to withstand his dough. He’s running in the wrong state.
He has presided over a remarkably difficult period in Illinois history, with the state lurching from crisis to crisis and all signs suggesting his leadership is insufficient to the task at hand. Record job losses, higher taxes, poor credit rating and open warfare with some one-time allies. Most of what he touches turns to mud.
Yet despite all of his negatives, I think he is somewhat likely to be re-elected.
Hard for me to imagine anyone who considers himself or herself a moderate voting for Bruce Rauner no matter how displeased he/she is with PQ. The best route for the GOP to win is if lots of folks take the election off.
The answer is pretty simple: He is likely to be elected because he is running as the Democratic nominee in what is essentially a one-party state. The people of Illinois have demonstrated time and again that they are OK with corruption and incompetence as long as it’s *their* guys bringing it.
- OnSecondThought - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:27 pm:
Does anyone believe that Hardiman will have any type of chance…Does he even believe it is a better question.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:27 pm:
I picked somewhat likely, because I believe that if Rauner is the nominee, unions will have no choice but to support Quinn, unless some miraculous populist third-party candidate emerges.
Voted somewhat likely because while it’s tough to get elected statewide as a Republican, it’s not impossible (see, e.g., Mark Kirk and Dan Rutherford). They ran as centrists on social issues, which meant they didn’t scare off suburban women the way Brady did. No matter how Rauner is cast here, he is not a social conservative. If he is nominated, Quinn will have a tougher battle on his hands than many of the commenters here would have you believe. If it’s either Dillard or Brady as the nominee, Quinn will easily win in November. Wild card is Rutherford as the GOP nominee. He’s won statewide, is a nice guy, but I have a nagging doubt that he could pull it off. Quinn, who I actually do admire in many ways, should never be underestimated. Then again, he should never be overestimated, either. He’s lost plenty of times, folks. And this ain’t 2010.
I appreciate the opportunity to comment. I voted very likely. He has now passed SSM, Pension reform and I believe a positive move regarding CCW. From my perspective, it looks like there is major support from his own party. I also sense that there is a strong anti-Rauner movement from certain Democratic leaders. Thank you, the commenters do a great job here, as does Mr. Miller.
as much as it pains me, I said somewhat likely. it really depends on who comes out I on top in the Republican side. I am still a Rutherford fan and think he can pull it off against Quinn. if it is any of the others, then Quinn is in. it won’t be easy for Rutherford, but I think he can do it.
If Rutherford wins the GOP primary, he wins. Many union voters will sit out general if Quinn runs against Rauner or Brady. I voted very unlikely.
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:59 pm:
I think Quinn squeaks it out because of the pension bill, his paycheck stunt, and marriage equality. He’s looking like an effective governor these days; plus, he’s the luckiest man in Illinois politics since Barry O.
Sitting Governor is hard to unseat, especially if opponent is splintered. That said, if Quinn continues to give his opponent time to close, and if the electorate is disenchanted (I’m a D and I don’t like him myself), the results could tilt towards a savvy, charismatic, R (is there one?)
I said somewhat likely. Sitting Governor is hard to unseat, especially if opponent is splintered. That said, if Quinn continues to give his opponent time to close, and if the electorate is disenchanted (I’m a D and I don’t like him myself), the results could tilt towards a savvy, charismatic, R (is there one?)
Somewhat. If Rauner is the GOP guy, unions will be hitting Rauner hard and PQ will be probably get votes from republicans. Rauner is simply too controversial.
Dillard and Rutherford are the only candidates who can beat Quinn, and of the two Dillard is the most qualified based on past government experience.
- Diogenes in DuPage - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:05 pm:
Illinois is too blue to give Rauner a chance. Rutherford MIGHT have a chance. He’d certainly get the public employee union vote, IF he could beat deep-pockets Rauner. I voted “Quinn somewhat likely to win.” But election day is far away.
Earlier this year, the consensus here was PQ was toast. Today 3 in 4 think he’ll be re-elected. Rutherford could give him the best contest in the general, IF the other 3 get behind right after the primary.
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:18 pm:
Along with other commenters, I think Rutherford has the best shot at beating Quinn, but his path through the primary is tough. Dillard is the only other Republican with a shot. Rauner & Brady would be hammered with ads showing protests in Madison, teachers, farmers, etc. all marching in protest along with the tag: Is this what we want in Illinois? Rauner’s money and donors are a blessing (lots of ads) and a curse (he and his rich pals are trying to buy the election).
On the other hand, Dillard and Rutherford will probably try to sell themselves as Edgar revisited. Those will look like the good old days to the average voter. And, if the Unions think they can work with a Quinn opponent…
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:18 pm:
I think Rutherford is the GOP’s only shot. Thus Quinn gets a somewhat likely.
I have major doubts that Rauner can put together a good enough ground game to make much actual noise. He can own the TV ads as much as he wants, he’s got to get people to show up and vote and I have no clue who his base is still.
I think Rutherford would be the only one of the bunch who could get people who wouldn’t normally vote for a Republican to do so. But I don’t see him winning the primary, so essentially it’s another 4 years of Pat Quinn.
1 party state. Republicans are seen as gun toting religious crazies. Danny is great and I will likely vote for him but it is only because Quinn has no personality. He is also very old and increasingly obese. I will vote (R) even though I am a registered (D).
I’m with those who think only Rutherford has a chance to beat Quinn, but I don’t think he has much of a chance at the repub nomination, thus I voted Quinn somewhat likely.
A statewide gen’l election will involve the subconscious decison, for an often decisive minority of voters, of whom they’d rather have a beer with. Quinn beats Rauner on that, esp’ly after the latter’s 5 houses in expensive zip codes, clouted Payton prep daughter, etc. get wider play. that could be offset by exciting the base, but Rauner won’t excite social right-wingers.
I said very likely for Quinn. Incumbency, name recognition, and lots of money, none of which he has to spend in a primary battle. More Democratic voters than Republican voters in the state, right? Quinn can also use state monies to fund porky projects where he needs to shore up support, but that may not be necessary given the weakness of his opponents.
A very split Republican primary field hence costly for candidates, that may not matter to Rauner but he has other obvious drawbacks including being a billionaire (9 hourses!) in what are still fairly hard economic times for many if not most.
Voted somewhat likely, as Rutherford & Dillard are Quinn’s only real challenge, and they haven’t taken their campaigns very seriously.
- Let's Get Real - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:40 pm:
If the Republicans can simply keep focused on the notion that winning the general election is what matters, then Quinn stands no chance. Hopefully, we will finally come to our senses and keep that focus. Quinn is like the nutty uncle that everyone jokes about at reunions. He is an embarassment to our State. The last time around, Brady proved to have more support than people gave him credit when the race began. However, when it really mattered, he did not have what was needed to counter the votes coming out of Chicago. Right or wrong…popular or not…DuPage turnout is needed in numbers we haven’t seen in several cycles. If we want to get those votes and restore some sense of respectability for Illinois, then we need to stop the in-fighting and vote for Dillard. Winning the primary means nothing if we don’t win the general.
I think it’s a coin flip and depending on the opponent it’s only a tick or two one way or the other. There’s no option to vote this way, so I commented without voting. I think that’s the opposite of what usually happens (i.e. vote without giving a reason) We live in strange times.
Very likely. I think the GOP and their wealthy donors are making a mistake if they support Rauner exclusively. He can’t win in this state, but Rutherford could get a lot of crossover voters. Right now, it doesn’t look like he can muster the needed support and bucks to win the primary.
The problem with being Governor in an economically depressed fiscal basket case of a state is you have to anger just about everyone at some point to do your job, which is where I see Governor Quinn. I still think Rutherford will win the GOP Primary. Timing will be everything for him. He will only beat the Rauner money by saving his money for the end, after Rauner has crested, which I believe he will by early to middle February.
Truthy, you have a friend in Naperville. (That’s nice — the downtown riverfront area is really quite attractive, and there are some good restaurants.)
So now you’ve got three votes — Edgar, Thompson, and you. Possibly four, if you count my DuPage County cousin.
But here’s your problem: Dillard apparently is hoping that suburban women will ignore his pre-primary lean to the right. That’s not necessarily going to happen — especially if he continues to lean on his sword while Rauner raises big cash to define his GOP opponents via paid media.
I voted likely, the trade unions can’t walk away from Quinn, paid tollway appointments, paid sports authority appointments, PLA’s, recognition of IDOT engineers for the big money IUOE the goofy ILIANA jobs from heaven etc.unless the public sector unions have the guts to divest themselves of the trade unions at the expense of their per capita tax for the CFL (Chicago Federation of Labor) plus this “illusion” of this “lunchpail Republican” PAC (IUOE local 150) which is still “labor” and can’t comply to the GOP national agenda, this will spilt the moderate GOP because the message, by design, the message is sooo convoluted to the street tradesman they will either vote moderate GOP or Quinn or not at all by confusion…my guess not at all or Quinn !! because most tradesman are still against the GOP message.
Likely. That’s an amazing statement to some of us who’ve around for a while.
To The Eternal Victims here who bemoan that iIllinois is “too blue” or that Illinois is a “one-party state” I have a flash for you:
You have no one to blame but yourselves.
You let the old Dixiecrats and George Wallace voters take over the national GOP. That’s swell for Mississippi and Alabama, but it makes for a profoundly damaged brand when two-thirds of Illinois voters live in the city and suburbs.
Further damage to the brand: your powerful infotainment complex hates a majority of Americans, and they go on and on about it, all day, every day.
That’s a lucrative business plan for the likes of Rush, Sean and Anne. And it doesn’t stop you from gaining majority votes in lots of Dixie. But it is a burden when you want to win the Yankees.
To The Eternal Victims, I’ll leave you with a couple of things I know for sure:
Twenty years ago, expressing the idea that incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn was likely to be elected governor for a second time would have earned you a trip to the nut house.
And you’d be roomies with the guy who said the back-bencher black dude from the South Side would be elected president, twice, with well over 300 electoral votes.
You see, twenty years ago, those possibilities would have been considered insane. But choices made by those who today claim to represent the party of Lincoln made them not only possible, but preferable to majorities of voters.
You can bet the Eternal Victims aren'’t lacing up their shoes and knocking on doors, either. The GOP GOTV in Cook and the suburbs would be a joke, if it existed.
Wasn’t always like that. Who do you blame for GOP laziness? Quinn or Obama?
Great Post, at some point understanding where My Party fails, will allow My Party to succeed. Until then, it will be talking points from talking heads who have no idea what being a Conservative is, or what being a Reagan Rule Republican looks like to the voters.
Gotta do it in the Precints, gotta do it in Recruitment, and you have to do it in a message, and we are failing in all three.
January 1995 might as well be January 1895, and 2014 is another chance for the ILGOP to build.
When the vote for Quinn here is “Likely” not because of Quinn, but more about Quinn not losing it, that speaks more to the problems than I know I can.
Thanks for the knowledge - wordslinger -, as always.
- Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 8:14 pm:
Must say, as often so, a GOOD deal from last Comment by Wordslinger right on. It’s almost unbelievable to think, let alone communicate, and there’s SO much more I could blather on about on this subject, but for all of his flaws–and in light, weirdly, of some of his strengths in convictions and personable, caring nature–but, yes, Pat Quinn, the “Man of the People,” WILL find a way and likely win again, amazing as it seems…!
I think Hillary Clinton may inadvertantly just been ONto something weeks ago when she blurted somewhat in jest about PQ just somehow being “the luckiest Politician in the World!” (Who knows, crazy ALso as it seems and try not to lol, but–maybe on THAT “luckiest” basis she’d even consider him for her 2016 VP Running Mate!! (Although likely doubtful in truth as they’re BOTH from the same State)…