- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:11 pm:
PQ very likely to win
Let’s look at the opp.
FarmerBrucey can’t get indie votes and DLard and the others are not trying.
Odds are against any of them winning
The Vest’s campaign is 4 years too late. The general public has caught onto the right’s small government/trickle down/ayn rand/job producer charade. Yes, unions aren’t happy with Quinn, but they don’t have a death wish either, so asusming The Vest wins the primary, he will have money, commercials, and the far right wing. And that’s not enough in this state. If the Vest was a veteran, nice guy, wasn’t involved in pay to pay scams, didn’t clout his daughter into a CPS school, he might have a chance, but he’ll be dirtied up in the general enough to withstand his dough. He’s running in the wrong state.
He has presided over a remarkably difficult period in Illinois history, with the state lurching from crisis to crisis and all signs suggesting his leadership is insufficient to the task at hand. Record job losses, higher taxes, poor credit rating and open warfare with some one-time allies. Most of what he touches turns to mud.
Yet despite all of his negatives, I think he is somewhat likely to be re-elected.
Ask me again after the primary. If it’s Rauner, I might cast my first ever Dem vote for gov.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:16 pm:
Quinn will win if he can run against a guy who the unions can’t support. They would love to stick it to the man, but they can’t cut off their own noses.
I think it is a pretty simple election if the dems stay united
Hard for me to imagine anyone who considers himself or herself a moderate voting for Bruce Rauner no matter how displeased he/she is with PQ. The best route for the GOP to win is if lots of folks take the election off.
I think he is somewhat likely to be re-elected. It all depends on who wins the GOP primary. The more conservative the GOP primary winner is the better chance Quinn has to win.
The answer is pretty simple: He is likely to be elected because he is running as the Democratic nominee in what is essentially a one-party state. The people of Illinois have demonstrated time and again that they are OK with corruption and incompetence as long as it’s *their* guys bringing it.
- OnSecondThought - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:27 pm:
Does anyone believe that Hardiman will have any type of chance…Does he even believe it is a better question.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:27 pm:
I picked somewhat likely, because I believe that if Rauner is the nominee, unions will have no choice but to support Quinn, unless some miraculous populist third-party candidate emerges.
Voted somewhat likely because while it’s tough to get elected statewide as a Republican, it’s not impossible (see, e.g., Mark Kirk and Dan Rutherford). They ran as centrists on social issues, which meant they didn’t scare off suburban women the way Brady did. No matter how Rauner is cast here, he is not a social conservative. If he is nominated, Quinn will have a tougher battle on his hands than many of the commenters here would have you believe. If it’s either Dillard or Brady as the nominee, Quinn will easily win in November. Wild card is Rutherford as the GOP nominee. He’s won statewide, is a nice guy, but I have a nagging doubt that he could pull it off. Quinn, who I actually do admire in many ways, should never be underestimated. Then again, he should never be overestimated, either. He’s lost plenty of times, folks. And this ain’t 2010.
I appreciate the opportunity to comment. I voted very likely. He has now passed SSM, Pension reform and I believe a positive move regarding CCW. From my perspective, it looks like there is major support from his own party. I also sense that there is a strong anti-Rauner movement from certain Democratic leaders. Thank you, the commenters do a great job here, as does Mr. Miller.
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:36 pm:
I voted very likely - pulling a number out of the air, 80% chance
Rauner might have run too far to the right; moderate republicans tend to do better in our state.
Quinn will be outspent, but he’ll have enough money to still have his message heard. And Quinn won’t have to spend money in the primary like he did last time.
Once Quinn gets going, he’s a heck of a campaigner - “you know me, you know where I stand, I’ll work night and day…”
If Rutherford somehow wins the primary, I’d change my vote to “Somewhat Unlikely.”
Very likely. Quinn has become an expert at positioning himself as the lesser of two evils on the issues that matter to people. People hate him just a little less than the other guy.
By Jack Dorgan’s own admission, the State GOP has been running like a frat party (his words). Combine that with a bush league field of challengers in a Blue State, and Quinn is safe.
as much as it pains me, I said somewhat likely. it really depends on who comes out I on top in the Republican side. I am still a Rutherford fan and think he can pull it off against Quinn. if it is any of the others, then Quinn is in. it won’t be easy for Rutherford, but I think he can do it.
If Rutherford wins the GOP primary, he wins. Many union voters will sit out general if Quinn runs against Rauner or Brady. I voted very unlikely.
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:59 pm:
I think Quinn squeaks it out because of the pension bill, his paycheck stunt, and marriage equality. He’s looking like an effective governor these days; plus, he’s the luckiest man in Illinois politics since Barry O.
Sitting Governor is hard to unseat, especially if opponent is splintered. That said, if Quinn continues to give his opponent time to close, and if the electorate is disenchanted (I’m a D and I don’t like him myself), the results could tilt towards a savvy, charismatic, R (is there one?)
I said somewhat likely. Sitting Governor is hard to unseat, especially if opponent is splintered. That said, if Quinn continues to give his opponent time to close, and if the electorate is disenchanted (I’m a D and I don’t like him myself), the results could tilt towards a savvy, charismatic, R (is there one?)
Somewhat. If Rauner is the GOP guy, unions will be hitting Rauner hard and PQ will be probably get votes from republicans. Rauner is simply too controversial.
Dillard and Rutherford are the only candidates who can beat Quinn, and of the two Dillard is the most qualified based on past government experience.
- Diogenes in DuPage - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:05 pm:
Illinois is too blue to give Rauner a chance. Rutherford MIGHT have a chance. He’d certainly get the public employee union vote, IF he could beat deep-pockets Rauner. I voted “Quinn somewhat likely to win.” But election day is far away.
Dillard or Brady would have to catch lightning in a bottle before the primary. That’s not impossible, but would be very difficult at this point in time.
Earlier this year, the consensus here was PQ was toast. Today 3 in 4 think he’ll be re-elected. Rutherford could give him the best contest in the general, IF the other 3 get behind right after the primary.
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:18 pm:
Along with other commenters, I think Rutherford has the best shot at beating Quinn, but his path through the primary is tough. Dillard is the only other Republican with a shot. Rauner & Brady would be hammered with ads showing protests in Madison, teachers, farmers, etc. all marching in protest along with the tag: Is this what we want in Illinois? Rauner’s money and donors are a blessing (lots of ads) and a curse (he and his rich pals are trying to buy the election).
On the other hand, Dillard and Rutherford will probably try to sell themselves as Edgar revisited. Those will look like the good old days to the average voter. And, if the Unions think they can work with a Quinn opponent…
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:18 pm:
I think Rutherford is the GOP’s only shot. Thus Quinn gets a somewhat likely.
I have major doubts that Rauner can put together a good enough ground game to make much actual noise. He can own the TV ads as much as he wants, he’s got to get people to show up and vote and I have no clue who his base is still.
If the pension reform gets reversed, it will be very unlikely, especially if Rutherford wins the GOP primary, because he will get a lot of the teacher, state employee and university employee vote.
- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:33 pm:
My thoughts are much like OW’s. It’s Quinn’s to lose, and he very well might. The only Repub IMHO that can touch him is Rutherford and I don’t think he’ll have the chance. #hammerandsqueezy
I think Rutherford would be the only one of the bunch who could get people who wouldn’t normally vote for a Republican to do so. But I don’t see him winning the primary, so essentially it’s another 4 years of Pat Quinn.
Very likely.
1 party state. Republicans are seen as gun toting religious crazies. Danny is great and I will likely vote for him but it is only because Quinn has no personality. He is also very old and increasingly obese. I will vote (R) even though I am a registered (D).
I’m with those who think only Rutherford has a chance to beat Quinn, but I don’t think he has much of a chance at the repub nomination, thus I voted Quinn somewhat likely.
A statewide gen’l election will involve the subconscious decison, for an often decisive minority of voters, of whom they’d rather have a beer with. Quinn beats Rauner on that, esp’ly after the latter’s 5 houses in expensive zip codes, clouted Payton prep daughter, etc. get wider play. that could be offset by exciting the base, but Rauner won’t excite social right-wingers.
===Public employees and retirees vote in the primary in large numbers for him===
Y’all could make the difference in a close race, but I’m not so sure it’ll be close by March if Rutherford stays dark and doesn’t raise the dough to compete. We’ll see.
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:05 pm:
Soccermom, good question, while I don’t think it likely, I’ll try my best:
1) Dillard, facing polls not going anywhere, drops out, leaving a three horse race, so that Rutherford gets a little more attention.
2) Rutherford has enough money to be on TV a little bit.
3) Rutherford successfully pushes the argument to some establishment-types that he is the electable republican.
4) Some republicans turn on Rauner after they learn more about him (his pay-to-play; ties with Dems)
5) Brady does just enough to stay relevant.
6) Illinois’ conservative republicans split between Rauner and Brady.
Somewhat likely, especially if Rauner buys the R primary. If Rutherford somehow pulls the primary win, then the it becomes somewhat unlikely.
- Endangered Moderate Species - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:26 pm:
Rauner is very likely to win the GOP nomination, therefore Quinn is somewhat likely to win the General Election.
Rutherford is my favorite if he could pull out the primary, but as long as Rauner stays on the airwaves and on message, Rutherford has a slim chance of getting back in the game.
Rauner’s message resonates with the angry wing (majority) of the GOP primary voters.
Rauner is trying to make us believe he wears an $18 watch, stays in cheap hotels and drives inexpensive cars. We already know those things about Quinn, whose cheapness is legendary.
I said very likely for Quinn. Incumbency, name recognition, and lots of money, none of which he has to spend in a primary battle. More Democratic voters than Republican voters in the state, right? Quinn can also use state monies to fund porky projects where he needs to shore up support, but that may not be necessary given the weakness of his opponents.
A very split Republican primary field hence costly for candidates, that may not matter to Rauner but he has other obvious drawbacks including being a billionaire (9 hourses!) in what are still fairly hard economic times for many if not most.
Voted somewhat likely, as Rutherford & Dillard are Quinn’s only real challenge, and they haven’t taken their campaigns very seriously.
- Let's Get Real - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:40 pm:
If the Republicans can simply keep focused on the notion that winning the general election is what matters, then Quinn stands no chance. Hopefully, we will finally come to our senses and keep that focus. Quinn is like the nutty uncle that everyone jokes about at reunions. He is an embarassment to our State. The last time around, Brady proved to have more support than people gave him credit when the race began. However, when it really mattered, he did not have what was needed to counter the votes coming out of Chicago. Right or wrong…popular or not…DuPage turnout is needed in numbers we haven’t seen in several cycles. If we want to get those votes and restore some sense of respectability for Illinois, then we need to stop the in-fighting and vote for Dillard. Winning the primary means nothing if we don’t win the general.
I think it’s a coin flip and depending on the opponent it’s only a tick or two one way or the other. There’s no option to vote this way, so I commented without voting. I think that’s the opposite of what usually happens (i.e. vote without giving a reason) We live in strange times.
Very likely. I think the GOP and their wealthy donors are making a mistake if they support Rauner exclusively. He can’t win in this state, but Rutherford could get a lot of crossover voters. Right now, it doesn’t look like he can muster the needed support and bucks to win the primary.
The problem with being Governor in an economically depressed fiscal basket case of a state is you have to anger just about everyone at some point to do your job, which is where I see Governor Quinn. I still think Rutherford will win the GOP Primary. Timing will be everything for him. He will only beat the Rauner money by saving his money for the end, after Rauner has crested, which I believe he will by early to middle February.
Truthy, you have a friend in Naperville. (That’s nice — the downtown riverfront area is really quite attractive, and there are some good restaurants.)
So now you’ve got three votes — Edgar, Thompson, and you. Possibly four, if you count my DuPage County cousin.
But here’s your problem: Dillard apparently is hoping that suburban women will ignore his pre-primary lean to the right. That’s not necessarily going to happen — especially if he continues to lean on his sword while Rauner raises big cash to define his GOP opponents via paid media.
I voted likely, the trade unions can’t walk away from Quinn, paid tollway appointments, paid sports authority appointments, PLA’s, recognition of IDOT engineers for the big money IUOE the goofy ILIANA jobs from heaven etc.unless the public sector unions have the guts to divest themselves of the trade unions at the expense of their per capita tax for the CFL (Chicago Federation of Labor) plus this “illusion” of this “lunchpail Republican” PAC (IUOE local 150) which is still “labor” and can’t comply to the GOP national agenda, this will spilt the moderate GOP because the message, by design, the message is sooo convoluted to the street tradesman they will either vote moderate GOP or Quinn or not at all by confusion…my guess not at all or Quinn !! because most tradesman are still against the GOP message.
Likely. That’s an amazing statement to some of us who’ve around for a while.
To The Eternal Victims here who bemoan that iIllinois is “too blue” or that Illinois is a “one-party state” I have a flash for you:
You have no one to blame but yourselves.
You let the old Dixiecrats and George Wallace voters take over the national GOP. That’s swell for Mississippi and Alabama, but it makes for a profoundly damaged brand when two-thirds of Illinois voters live in the city and suburbs.
Further damage to the brand: your powerful infotainment complex hates a majority of Americans, and they go on and on about it, all day, every day.
That’s a lucrative business plan for the likes of Rush, Sean and Anne. And it doesn’t stop you from gaining majority votes in lots of Dixie. But it is a burden when you want to win the Yankees.
To The Eternal Victims, I’ll leave you with a couple of things I know for sure:
Twenty years ago, expressing the idea that incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn was likely to be elected governor for a second time would have earned you a trip to the nut house.
And you’d be roomies with the guy who said the back-bencher black dude from the South Side would be elected president, twice, with well over 300 electoral votes.
You see, twenty years ago, those possibilities would have been considered insane. But choices made by those who today claim to represent the party of Lincoln made them not only possible, but preferable to majorities of voters.
You can bet the Eternal Victims aren'’t lacing up their shoes and knocking on doors, either. The GOP GOTV in Cook and the suburbs would be a joke, if it existed.
Wasn’t always like that. Who do you blame for GOP laziness? Quinn or Obama?
Great Post, at some point understanding where My Party fails, will allow My Party to succeed. Until then, it will be talking points from talking heads who have no idea what being a Conservative is, or what being a Reagan Rule Republican looks like to the voters.
Gotta do it in the Precints, gotta do it in Recruitment, and you have to do it in a message, and we are failing in all three.
January 1995 might as well be January 1895, and 2014 is another chance for the ILGOP to build.
When the vote for Quinn here is “Likely” not because of Quinn, but more about Quinn not losing it, that speaks more to the problems than I know I can.
Thanks for the knowledge - wordslinger -, as always.
- Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 8:14 pm:
Must say, as often so, a GOOD deal from last Comment by Wordslinger right on. It’s almost unbelievable to think, let alone communicate, and there’s SO much more I could blather on about on this subject, but for all of his flaws–and in light, weirdly, of some of his strengths in convictions and personable, caring nature–but, yes, Pat Quinn, the “Man of the People,” WILL find a way and likely win again, amazing as it seems…!
I think Hillary Clinton may inadvertantly just been ONto something weeks ago when she blurted somewhat in jest about PQ just somehow being “the luckiest Politician in the World!” (Who knows, crazy ALso as it seems and try not to lol, but–maybe on THAT “luckiest” basis she’d even consider him for her 2016 VP Running Mate!! (Although likely doubtful in truth as they’re BOTH from the same State)…
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:11 pm:
PQ very likely to win
Let’s look at the opp.
FarmerBrucey can’t get indie votes and DLard and the others are not trying.
Odds are against any of them winning
- Chi - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:12 pm:
The Vest’s campaign is 4 years too late. The general public has caught onto the right’s small government/trickle down/ayn rand/job producer charade. Yes, unions aren’t happy with Quinn, but they don’t have a death wish either, so asusming The Vest wins the primary, he will have money, commercials, and the far right wing. And that’s not enough in this state. If the Vest was a veteran, nice guy, wasn’t involved in pay to pay scams, didn’t clout his daughter into a CPS school, he might have a chance, but he’ll be dirtied up in the general enough to withstand his dough. He’s running in the wrong state.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:14 pm:
He has presided over a remarkably difficult period in Illinois history, with the state lurching from crisis to crisis and all signs suggesting his leadership is insufficient to the task at hand. Record job losses, higher taxes, poor credit rating and open warfare with some one-time allies. Most of what he touches turns to mud.
Yet despite all of his negatives, I think he is somewhat likely to be re-elected.
- Chefjeff - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:14 pm:
Ask me again after the primary. If it’s Rauner, I might cast my first ever Dem vote for gov.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:16 pm:
Quinn will win if he can run against a guy who the unions can’t support. They would love to stick it to the man, but they can’t cut off their own noses.
I think it is a pretty simple election if the dems stay united
- Bourbonrich - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:17 pm:
Hard for me to imagine anyone who considers himself or herself a moderate voting for Bruce Rauner no matter how displeased he/she is with PQ. The best route for the GOP to win is if lots of folks take the election off.
- Hit or Miss - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:17 pm:
I think he is somewhat likely to be re-elected. It all depends on who wins the GOP primary. The more conservative the GOP primary winner is the better chance Quinn has to win.
- bored now - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:19 pm:
way too early to do anything but guess. i would *guess* that quinn is more likely to win than lose, but it will probably be a topsy-turvy ride…
- JB13 - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:23 pm:
The answer is pretty simple: He is likely to be elected because he is running as the Democratic nominee in what is essentially a one-party state. The people of Illinois have demonstrated time and again that they are OK with corruption and incompetence as long as it’s *their* guys bringing it.
- OnSecondThought - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:27 pm:
Does anyone believe that Hardiman will have any type of chance…Does he even believe it is a better question.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:27 pm:
I picked somewhat likely, because I believe that if Rauner is the nominee, unions will have no choice but to support Quinn, unless some miraculous populist third-party candidate emerges.
- phocion - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:28 pm:
Voted somewhat likely because while it’s tough to get elected statewide as a Republican, it’s not impossible (see, e.g., Mark Kirk and Dan Rutherford). They ran as centrists on social issues, which meant they didn’t scare off suburban women the way Brady did. No matter how Rauner is cast here, he is not a social conservative. If he is nominated, Quinn will have a tougher battle on his hands than many of the commenters here would have you believe. If it’s either Dillard or Brady as the nominee, Quinn will easily win in November. Wild card is Rutherford as the GOP nominee. He’s won statewide, is a nice guy, but I have a nagging doubt that he could pull it off. Quinn, who I actually do admire in many ways, should never be underestimated. Then again, he should never be overestimated, either. He’s lost plenty of times, folks. And this ain’t 2010.
- Republicrat - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:31 pm:
I appreciate the opportunity to comment. I voted very likely. He has now passed SSM, Pension reform and I believe a positive move regarding CCW. From my perspective, it looks like there is major support from his own party. I also sense that there is a strong anti-Rauner movement from certain Democratic leaders. Thank you, the commenters do a great job here, as does Mr. Miller.
- tominchicago - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:32 pm:
Illinois is a very blue state.
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:36 pm:
I voted very likely - pulling a number out of the air, 80% chance
Rauner might have run too far to the right; moderate republicans tend to do better in our state.
Quinn will be outspent, but he’ll have enough money to still have his message heard. And Quinn won’t have to spend money in the primary like he did last time.
Once Quinn gets going, he’s a heck of a campaigner - “you know me, you know where I stand, I’ll work night and day…”
If Rutherford somehow wins the primary, I’d change my vote to “Somewhat Unlikely.”
- Ahoy! - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:36 pm:
I think it’s 50/50, which speaks volumes about the Illinois Republican party.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:37 pm:
Very likely. Quinn has become an expert at positioning himself as the lesser of two evils on the issues that matter to people. People hate him just a little less than the other guy.
- too obvious - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:44 pm:
GOP can’t beat something with nothing.
By Jack Dorgan’s own admission, the State GOP has been running like a frat party (his words). Combine that with a bush league field of challengers in a Blue State, and Quinn is safe.
- D.P.Gumby - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:45 pm:
Somewhat likely, but it’s months away and if Rauner gets the golden ring, one can never underestimate the ability to buy an election.
- DuPage - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:47 pm:
@47th ward =most of what he touches turns to mud=
I agree, he has a sort of reverse Midas touch.
- susiejones - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:50 pm:
as much as it pains me, I said somewhat likely. it really depends on who comes out I on top in the Republican side. I am still a Rutherford fan and think he can pull it off against Quinn. if it is any of the others, then Quinn is in. it won’t be easy for Rutherford, but I think he can do it.
- AFSCME Steward - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:56 pm:
If Rutherford wins the GOP primary, he wins. Many union voters will sit out general if Quinn runs against Rauner or Brady. I voted very unlikely.
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:59 pm:
I think Quinn squeaks it out because of the pension bill, his paycheck stunt, and marriage equality. He’s looking like an effective governor these days; plus, he’s the luckiest man in Illinois politics since Barry O.
- Chad - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 2:59 pm:
Only Rutherford can take him.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:01 pm:
Sitting Governor is hard to unseat, especially if opponent is splintered. That said, if Quinn continues to give his opponent time to close, and if the electorate is disenchanted (I’m a D and I don’t like him myself), the results could tilt towards a savvy, charismatic, R (is there one?)
- Pete - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:02 pm:
Somewhat unlikely.
I think the GOP campaign has yet to focus it’s efforts on the Dems. The best of the GOP campaign is yet to come.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:02 pm:
Voted “Likely”, here’s why …
It is all in Quinn’s hands. Period.
Quinn is “clean” through the Primary, and however Pat Quinn decides he is going to run, then that is what is going to dictate if Pat Quinn wins.
If Pat Quinn in comfortable with a Bruce Rauner owning the air waves and is going to win on the streets, go get ‘em.
Pat Quinn, the Quinn decisions are going to decide this race. Quinn is the Pace Setter, now if Quinn knows that or not I don’t know.
I tend to lean to “win” when the candidate controls their own destiny, until they don’t.
“Likely”
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:04 pm:
I said somewhat likely. Sitting Governor is hard to unseat, especially if opponent is splintered. That said, if Quinn continues to give his opponent time to close, and if the electorate is disenchanted (I’m a D and I don’t like him myself), the results could tilt towards a savvy, charismatic, R (is there one?)
- Samurai - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:04 pm:
Somewhat. If Rauner is the GOP guy, unions will be hitting Rauner hard and PQ will be probably get votes from republicans. Rauner is simply too controversial.
Dillard and Rutherford are the only candidates who can beat Quinn, and of the two Dillard is the most qualified based on past government experience.
- Diogenes in DuPage - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:05 pm:
Illinois is too blue to give Rauner a chance. Rutherford MIGHT have a chance. He’d certainly get the public employee union vote, IF he could beat deep-pockets Rauner. I voted “Quinn somewhat likely to win.” But election day is far away.
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:08 pm:
Somewhat unlikely.
Coin flip against Rauner. Loses to Rutherford.
Dillard or Brady would have to catch lightning in a bottle before the primary. That’s not impossible, but would be very difficult at this point in time.
- Keyser Soze - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:10 pm:
Quinn beats anyone but Rutherford.
- Darienite - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:10 pm:
Earlier this year, the consensus here was PQ was toast. Today 3 in 4 think he’ll be re-elected. Rutherford could give him the best contest in the general, IF the other 3 get behind right after the primary.
- Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:13 pm:
Only Rutherford can beat him.
- Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:18 pm:
Along with other commenters, I think Rutherford has the best shot at beating Quinn, but his path through the primary is tough. Dillard is the only other Republican with a shot. Rauner & Brady would be hammered with ads showing protests in Madison, teachers, farmers, etc. all marching in protest along with the tag: Is this what we want in Illinois? Rauner’s money and donors are a blessing (lots of ads) and a curse (he and his rich pals are trying to buy the election).
On the other hand, Dillard and Rutherford will probably try to sell themselves as Edgar revisited. Those will look like the good old days to the average voter. And, if the Unions think they can work with a Quinn opponent…
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:18 pm:
I think Rutherford is the GOP’s only shot. Thus Quinn gets a somewhat likely.
I have major doubts that Rauner can put together a good enough ground game to make much actual noise. He can own the TV ads as much as he wants, he’s got to get people to show up and vote and I have no clue who his base is still.
- Rusty618 - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:31 pm:
If the pension reform gets reversed, it will be very unlikely, especially if Rutherford wins the GOP primary, because he will get a lot of the teacher, state employee and university employee vote.
- Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:33 pm:
My thoughts are much like OW’s. It’s Quinn’s to lose, and he very well might. The only Repub IMHO that can touch him is Rutherford and I don’t think he’ll have the chance. #hammerandsqueezy
- Chavez-respecting Obamist - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:34 pm:
I think Rutherford would be the only one of the bunch who could get people who wouldn’t normally vote for a Republican to do so. But I don’t see him winning the primary, so essentially it’s another 4 years of Pat Quinn.
- Anon. - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:40 pm:
Very likely, as depressing as that sounds. Blago would be “somewhat likely” to win in this State, and Quinn doesn’t have a rap sheet.
too obvious @ 2:44 ==GOP can’t beat something with nothing.==
True for the GOP, but the Dems did it in 2010 and will likely do it again in 2014.
- Soccermom - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:50 pm:
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Rutherford could beat Quinn. Will someone please lay out for me Rutherford’s path to victory in the primary?
- walkinfool - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:53 pm:
Somewhat likely.
For Quinn:
-the pension bill undercuts some of the usual attacks of being inept, or not concerned with out-of-control costs.
-the economy will continue to improve thru election day, and might get to a tipping point where it won’t be an automatic drag on incumbents.
Against Quinn:
-Obama/Dems will continue to have a political disaster on their hands
-Rauner could be the wild card. The usual suspects won’t beat him.
- Nino Brown - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:53 pm:
Very likely.
1 party state. Republicans are seen as gun toting religious crazies. Danny is great and I will likely vote for him but it is only because Quinn has no personality. He is also very old and increasingly obese. I will vote (R) even though I am a registered (D).
- corvax - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:56 pm:
I’m with those who think only Rutherford has a chance to beat Quinn, but I don’t think he has much of a chance at the repub nomination, thus I voted Quinn somewhat likely.
A statewide gen’l election will involve the subconscious decison, for an often decisive minority of voters, of whom they’d rather have a beer with. Quinn beats Rauner on that, esp’ly after the latter’s 5 houses in expensive zip codes, clouted Payton prep daughter, etc. get wider play. that could be offset by exciting the base, but Rauner won’t excite social right-wingers.
- Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:56 pm:
“Rutherford’s path to victory in the primary?”
Public employees and retirees vote in the primary in large numbers for him will upset the dynamics and they are angry enough to do it.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 3:58 pm:
===Public employees and retirees vote in the primary in large numbers for him===
Y’all could make the difference in a close race, but I’m not so sure it’ll be close by March if Rutherford stays dark and doesn’t raise the dough to compete. We’ll see.
- Robert the Bruce - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:05 pm:
Soccermom, good question, while I don’t think it likely, I’ll try my best:
1) Dillard, facing polls not going anywhere, drops out, leaving a three horse race, so that Rutherford gets a little more attention.
2) Rutherford has enough money to be on TV a little bit.
3) Rutherford successfully pushes the argument to some establishment-types that he is the electable republican.
4) Some republicans turn on Rauner after they learn more about him (his pay-to-play; ties with Dems)
5) Brady does just enough to stay relevant.
6) Illinois’ conservative republicans split between Rauner and Brady.
- Toure's Latte - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:08 pm:
Somewhat likely. As said elsewhere, Madigan has done a very good job deflating IL GOP talking points, especially Rauner’s.
- downstate commissioner - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:24 pm:
Somewhat likely, especially if Rauner buys the R primary. If Rutherford somehow pulls the primary win, then the it becomes somewhat unlikely.
- Endangered Moderate Species - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:26 pm:
Rauner is very likely to win the GOP nomination, therefore Quinn is somewhat likely to win the General Election.
Rutherford is my favorite if he could pull out the primary, but as long as Rauner stays on the airwaves and on message, Rutherford has a slim chance of getting back in the game.
Rauner’s message resonates with the angry wing (majority) of the GOP primary voters.
Rauner is trying to make us believe he wears an $18 watch, stays in cheap hotels and drives inexpensive cars. We already know those things about Quinn, whose cheapness is legendary.
- Cassandra - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:28 pm:
I said very likely for Quinn. Incumbency, name recognition, and lots of money, none of which he has to spend in a primary battle. More Democratic voters than Republican voters in the state, right? Quinn can also use state monies to fund porky projects where he needs to shore up support, but that may not be necessary given the weakness of his opponents.
A very split Republican primary field hence costly for candidates, that may not matter to Rauner but he has other obvious drawbacks including being a billionaire (9 hourses!) in what are still fairly hard economic times for many if not most.
- AC - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:40 pm:
Voted somewhat likely, as Rutherford & Dillard are Quinn’s only real challenge, and they haven’t taken their campaigns very seriously.
- Let's Get Real - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:40 pm:
If the Republicans can simply keep focused on the notion that winning the general election is what matters, then Quinn stands no chance. Hopefully, we will finally come to our senses and keep that focus. Quinn is like the nutty uncle that everyone jokes about at reunions. He is an embarassment to our State. The last time around, Brady proved to have more support than people gave him credit when the race began. However, when it really mattered, he did not have what was needed to counter the votes coming out of Chicago. Right or wrong…popular or not…DuPage turnout is needed in numbers we haven’t seen in several cycles. If we want to get those votes and restore some sense of respectability for Illinois, then we need to stop the in-fighting and vote for Dillard. Winning the primary means nothing if we don’t win the general.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:40 pm:
I think it’s a coin flip and depending on the opponent it’s only a tick or two one way or the other. There’s no option to vote this way, so I commented without voting. I think that’s the opposite of what usually happens (i.e. vote without giving a reason) We live in strange times.
- Belle - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:42 pm:
As they used to say “he’s in like Flynn”
- truth hurts sometimes - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:43 pm:
Dillard is the ONLY candidate that can beat Quinn.
Brady tried and failed. Rutherford can’t do any better. Rauner isn’t a real Republican anyway.
Ask Governors Thompson and Edgar — they both endorse Dillard.
- Wensicia - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:45 pm:
Very likely. I think the GOP and their wealthy donors are making a mistake if they support Rauner exclusively. He can’t win in this state, but Rutherford could get a lot of crossover voters. Right now, it doesn’t look like he can muster the needed support and bucks to win the primary.
- Hickory - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:45 pm:
Very Likely - It is not a Pres. election year but the Chicago captians will get out the vote and that is what counts.
- Richard Tanner - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:45 pm:
I would vote for Rutherford in a minute. I would vote for my neighbors Dog before I would vote for Rauner
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 4:49 pm:
- truth hurts sometimes -,
Again, which Dillard?
1990s Dillard?…
Rotunda Dillard? Obama Ad mixup Dillard? 2010 Dillard?
I don’t know if the 1990’s Dillard would vote for 2010 Dillard, and I would love to ask 1990’s Dillard that question …
- reflector - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 5:22 pm:
Rauner will make Quinn the best choice.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 5:28 pm:
=Again, which Dillard?=
Seriously? Which Mark Kirk? Which Pat Quinn? Which Barack Obama?
More importantly, which Brady?
- Soccermom - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 5:29 pm:
Hey, Truthy -
That’s great, that Edgar and Thompson both endorse Dillard. That’s two votes right there. Now all you need is….
- naperville soccer mom - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 5:29 pm:
Rutherford is just another Brady from downstate.
Dillard is the only candidate that can win the voter rich suburban vote.
- Percival - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 5:41 pm:
The problem with being Governor in an economically depressed fiscal basket case of a state is you have to anger just about everyone at some point to do your job, which is where I see Governor Quinn. I still think Rutherford will win the GOP Primary. Timing will be everything for him. He will only beat the Rauner money by saving his money for the end, after Rauner has crested, which I believe he will by early to middle February.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 5:59 pm:
- naperville soccer mom -,
You mean Republican Nominee Bill Brady who beat Kirk Dillard?
Look, everyone thinks they can win the Super Bowl, but some seem to forget the Playoffs.
- Soccermom - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 6:11 pm:
Truthy, you have a friend in Naperville. (That’s nice — the downtown riverfront area is really quite attractive, and there are some good restaurants.)
So now you’ve got three votes — Edgar, Thompson, and you. Possibly four, if you count my DuPage County cousin.
But here’s your problem: Dillard apparently is hoping that suburban women will ignore his pre-primary lean to the right. That’s not necessarily going to happen — especially if he continues to lean on his sword while Rauner raises big cash to define his GOP opponents via paid media.
Less blog time, more call time…
- railrat - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 6:21 pm:
I voted likely, the trade unions can’t walk away from Quinn, paid tollway appointments, paid sports authority appointments, PLA’s, recognition of IDOT engineers for the big money IUOE the goofy ILIANA jobs from heaven etc.unless the public sector unions have the guts to divest themselves of the trade unions at the expense of their per capita tax for the CFL (Chicago Federation of Labor) plus this “illusion” of this “lunchpail Republican” PAC (IUOE local 150) which is still “labor” and can’t comply to the GOP national agenda, this will spilt the moderate GOP because the message, by design, the message is sooo convoluted to the street tradesman they will either vote moderate GOP or Quinn or not at all by confusion…my guess not at all or Quinn !! because most tradesman are still against the GOP message.
- Will - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 7:06 pm:
If Rutherford is the Republican nominee and a Green is on the ballot, very unlikely.
Otherwise, somewhat likely.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 7:13 pm:
Likely. That’s an amazing statement to some of us who’ve around for a while.
To The Eternal Victims here who bemoan that iIllinois is “too blue” or that Illinois is a “one-party state” I have a flash for you:
You have no one to blame but yourselves.
You let the old Dixiecrats and George Wallace voters take over the national GOP. That’s swell for Mississippi and Alabama, but it makes for a profoundly damaged brand when two-thirds of Illinois voters live in the city and suburbs.
Further damage to the brand: your powerful infotainment complex hates a majority of Americans, and they go on and on about it, all day, every day.
That’s a lucrative business plan for the likes of Rush, Sean and Anne. And it doesn’t stop you from gaining majority votes in lots of Dixie. But it is a burden when you want to win the Yankees.
To The Eternal Victims, I’ll leave you with a couple of things I know for sure:
Twenty years ago, expressing the idea that incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn was likely to be elected governor for a second time would have earned you a trip to the nut house.
And you’d be roomies with the guy who said the back-bencher black dude from the South Side would be elected president, twice, with well over 300 electoral votes.
You see, twenty years ago, those possibilities would have been considered insane. But choices made by those who today claim to represent the party of Lincoln made them not only possible, but preferable to majorities of voters.
You can bet the Eternal Victims aren'’t lacing up their shoes and knocking on doors, either. The GOP GOTV in Cook and the suburbs would be a joke, if it existed.
Wasn’t always like that. Who do you blame for GOP laziness? Quinn or Obama?
- Esteban - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 7:59 pm:
Quinn can count on the GOPto carry him over the
finish line.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 8:02 pm:
- wordslinger -
Great Post, at some point understanding where My Party fails, will allow My Party to succeed. Until then, it will be talking points from talking heads who have no idea what being a Conservative is, or what being a Reagan Rule Republican looks like to the voters.
Gotta do it in the Precints, gotta do it in Recruitment, and you have to do it in a message, and we are failing in all three.
January 1995 might as well be January 1895, and 2014 is another chance for the ILGOP to build.
When the vote for Quinn here is “Likely” not because of Quinn, but more about Quinn not losing it, that speaks more to the problems than I know I can.
Thanks for the knowledge - wordslinger -, as always.
- Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 8:14 pm:
Must say, as often so, a GOOD deal from last Comment by Wordslinger right on. It’s almost unbelievable to think, let alone communicate, and there’s SO much more I could blather on about on this subject, but for all of his flaws–and in light, weirdly, of some of his strengths in convictions and personable, caring nature–but, yes, Pat Quinn, the “Man of the People,” WILL find a way and likely win again, amazing as it seems…!
I think Hillary Clinton may inadvertantly just been ONto something weeks ago when she blurted somewhat in jest about PQ just somehow being “the luckiest Politician in the World!” (Who knows, crazy ALso as it seems and try not to lol, but–maybe on THAT “luckiest” basis she’d even consider him for her 2016 VP Running Mate!! (Although likely doubtful in truth as they’re BOTH from the same State)…
- Ruby - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 9:59 pm:
I agree with Wordslinger @ 7:13 pm.
- Soccertease - Wednesday, Dec 11, 13 @ 10:48 pm:
Somewhat likely. IL is blue (Chicago) so Quinn will probably get re-elected even though he’s been a terrible governor.