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Rutherford: No deadline for internal probe

Thursday, Feb 6, 2014

* Lee Newspapers

As the clock ticks down on the March 18 Republican primary election, state Treasurer Dan Rutherford says there is no timeline for an independent investigator to finish a probe into misconduct allegations made by a former employee.

In an interview Wednesday, the Republican gubernatorial candidate told the Times’ Springfield Bureau that he hopes the investigation moves quickly so he — and voters — can fully concentrate on the final weeks of the four-way GOP primary race.

“We have instructed him to be expeditious but thorough,” Rutherford said.

I’m hearing maybe the middle of next week.

* And this is a hard dose of reality

Rutherford said the situation has not hurt his fundraising. He said he received more than $4,700 in unsolicited contributions at non-fundraising events in recent days.

“It’s made me even stronger,” Rutherford said. “I’ve gotten hundreds of emails saying … ‘keep up the fight, give ‘em hell, Dan.’”

By contrast, Rauner has reported receiving $350,000 in large donations since Friday.

$4,700 vs. $350,000. It’s been that way for months.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


56 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:41 am:

    The money? It’s like a tricycle chasing a Ferrari…

    However the Probe plays out, it better he an honest attempt. Nothing would be worse than calling the case(s) “closed” and one of those interviewed making a remark that their interview, good or bad, was not taken seriously or looked into further.

    Better be “comnplete and a thorough” investigation. Otherwise, more questions will pop up.


  2. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    If Rutherford is on a tricycle, what are Brady and Dillard riding? A snail and a turtle? Their fundraising numbers are embarrassing by Rutherford standards.


  3. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    It’s difficult to see how the “independent investigator” will be viewed as truly independent if he comes back within a week with a report that exonerates Dan. Even if he is truly independent, he was hired by Dan and was with him at that strange press conference. I have trouble seeing a clear path out of this for Rutherford.

    Politically, the primary voters are looking for someone who can challenge Quinn in the fall. As long as there is doubt about this, pragmatic voters are going to be shy about casting a vote for someone with an ethical shadow following him. There is too much at stake to take chances. (On the other hand, getting a shadow to pop up behind Rauner would go a long way to help.)


  4. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:50 am:

    Rauner is a money machine. His finance director is going get a lot more work in the years to come.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    Rauners media buyer might be able to retire after this is all said and done…


  6. - Norseman - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:56 am:

    I’m sorry Willy, but this is one of those times I have to disagree. I see Rutherford as a kid’s first bike with training wheels. He and his campaign hasn’t quite graduated to big boy bikes. Dillard is trying to play it cool with his Big Wheel and Little Billy is sitting in his Radio Flyer waiting for someone to pull.


  7. - Wally - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:58 am:

    How much of the $350K is from Rauner and 2-3 buddies? DR has about 1.3-1.5 mil in the bank and about 5 weeks to spend it on ads.


  8. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    –How much of the $350K is from Rauner and 2-3 buddies?–

    Check it out. He has a formidable national network.


  9. - Chicago Cynic - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    $4700? Did he say that with a straight face.

    Look, I feel badly (assuming the allegations are not true) for Dan. He is now in an untenable spot. but this story in its current form is devastating for him and this kind of statement makes him sound even less credible.

    I know that De “Nile” is a very common river for politicians to travel down, but I hope he’s at least thinking about what his life will look like on the other side. At least he’ll have 11 months to plan for his post-Treasurer job.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    - Wally -,

    With “caps off”, does it matter?

    Any of the “3″ could find … “2-3 buddies” and get $350K if they want … or could … but it seems as though they can’t.

    All that really matters, is that Rauner is $350K heavier in the fund. That is the story once the caps came off.


  11. - Wally - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Look, I realize nobody can come close to matching Rauner’s money. But, DR is in pretty good shape to get his message out and he has built a good ground game the past few years. The resolution of the “issue” needs to come quickly for him or the end result is not good. But, like someone else mentioned, DR’s fundraising and $ on hand dwarf Dillard and Brady. Will it be enough????


  12. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:11 am:

    In fairness, let’s call it an “investigation” rather than an “internal probe”. No need to get snarky


  13. - veritas - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:12 am:

    Keep in mind that $4700 for Rutherford might represent 200+ votes and $350,000 for Rauner might equate to 1,2 or 3 and some of them may be out of state. I know he is running on the Rahm Emanuel script of outspending and smearing your opponents and I know that has worked well in the past, but hang on to your seats while Rauner’s DIRTY LAUNDRY is exposed. The proverbial $64,000 question is will the Dems. get involved in the Republican Primary or will they hold off and let Rauner win?? I don’t see any way he beats a populist in 2014 Illinois. It’s the old, “Devil we know…” scenario and we are learning in dribs and drabs that Rauner didn’t make all of his money “the old fashioned way.” Consider this: I think we know just about everything there is to know about Pat Quinn, but we have more questions about Rauner than answers.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:16 am:

    - Wally -,

    Comparing Rutherford to Dillard and Brady does not factor in that Rutherford is still competing with Rauner.

    If Rutherford beats Brady and Dillard and still loses to Rauner, what did that prove?

    The only message getting out is “Rauner”, on every “dial”, along with this new PAC hammering the “3″.

    The “cash on hand” Rutherford has, can be matched with either 1 check from Rauner at any time, or 3-4 “buddies” with phone calls.

    Also, Rutherford is saddled with rying to play offense, with all that is swirling, and no Ads to counter any negative Ads Rauner is running.

    As of right now, with nothing hitting Rauner on the airwaves, the “3″ are playing for 2nd, with the slim, very slim hope a “Ground Game” can save any of them, and the “2PACS” finally calling out Rauner.

    That is where this stands. Hope, and …hope.


  15. - Walter Mitty - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:23 am:

    OW… I am really with you on all of this… I am past hope mode… I am in why mode. Why have the 2 pacs been as silent? Why have the teachers NOT come out on Rauner? I am just confused… We have been hoping for so long. I just wonder why…


  16. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:23 am:

    - Norseman -,

    The one thing I want around the Administration is people who call me out when they think I am wrong, can do better, and need to be better.

    Never apologize if you can make a case. All good.

    To your Post,

    You are considering that Brady and Dillard are in the discussion, which is nice, but elevating Rutherford from the tricycle to include 2 campaigns that are allergic to money is really wasting key strokes at this point.

    You have a point, but I am saving my typing for those campaigns wanting to be in a money discussion.


  17. - Wally - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:23 am:

    DR said he was going to stay positive. I don’t think that is possible now, the gloves need to come off.

    If I drink Bud and like Bud, no amount of advertising will get me to switch to a new German ale!!!


  18. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    ===If I drink Bud and like Bud, no amount of advertising will get me to switch to a new German ale!!!===

    Well then, today, not changing those polled minds … Rauner is your Nominee.

    - Walter Mitty -,

    Can they RAISE the cash? That seems to be the answer right now. It’s the “money” thing, not the lack of want, I believe.

    When the “2PACS” can generate the funds to go at this, they will(?).

    If they “go up” and then Rauner’s Crew dumps a million or two, and “Rauner’s non-affiliated PAC” dumps another half a million, where does that leave the race?

    The “want” is evident, the cash is not evident.


  19. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    ===If I drink Bud and like Bud, no amount of advertising will get me to switch to a new German ale!!!===

    No, it won’t. That’s why the spots are directed at young people making life-long brand decisions.


  20. - veritas - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    I submit that the 800 pound gorilla won’t be Rauner, rather the anti-Rauner coalition of labor and Dems. Again, the question is will they enter the fray before or after the primary. Rauner may have the money, but the only ground game he has ever had is bussing in kids and seniors to show up at rallies and compromise straw polls.


  21. - Walter Mitty - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    I am just worried the “want” is not a given. The unions are not that silly. The fundemental change that Rauner may say he wants we all know may be not tenable. At all. Most know it. If Rauner wins the primary, and at this point seems likely. This may be they strategy… Don’t vote for Quinn or Rauner… He can’t change there system alone. It seems maybe everyone knows this including Rauner, but it polls well… Maybe well enough to beat Quinn on his record or lack thereof in the general…


  22. - John Galt - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:37 am:

    1) No denying that Rauner is a money machine. But it is important to note that much of the rank & file party regulars are rejecting him. His money will be less efficient as a result. His competitors don’t need to raise as much as he has, but they do need to raise enough to get on the radar more.

    2) There is a strong anti-Rauner sentiment in much of the party, but IMO only one viable “anti-Rauner” slot. Up until these allegations, it looked Rutherford was the guy. Now that might not be the case, and I’d assume Dillard would be the chief beneficiary.

    3) If I were Dillard, I would be dialing for dollars like crazy right now, in the hopes that the “anti-Rauner” donor class might be looking to hedge their bets. If Dillard played it right, he could essentially grab the slot that Rutherford seemingly had 3 weeks ago. And if more details come out to the point that Rutherford sees the writing on the wall, then if I were Dillard I’d approach Rutherford for a possible drop-out/endorsement deal.

    It’s the only possible way forward for Dillard. If he fails to raise a ton of money in the next 2 weeks over the flap, and/or Rutherford is not mortally damaged to the point where he stays in the race, then the anti-Rauner vote will be split and Rauner will win this thing.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:37 am:

    - Walter Mitty -,

    Good points, thought about that too, but the “rub” there is, although Rauner is not going to be able to impliment a vast majority of his “Walker-Daniels” agenda, due to legislative differnences, the Illinois Constitution, and the Democratic leadership in both chambers, the idea of utter gridlock, the possible litigation, the possible “shutting down” of Illinois Government, and Executive Orders that need fighting in the courts, I go back to Remo, “Why take a chance?”

    The Unions may want to hold their powder, and after all that HAS been done in the past year, hold their noses too and vote Quinn, but … is that also best for the Rank and File and Illinois?

    Good question …


  24. - veritas - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:39 am:

    Rauner has spent millions. Rauner has OWNED the airwaves and the Tribune and Rauner has unleashed vicious attacks against all 3 of his opponents. YET - YET - he has the slimmest margin of victory against Pat Quinn of all of the 4 candidates according to Rich’s latest poll. That isn’t a great ROI in my opinion. Further: attacks are as subject to the “Hershey Principle” as any other commodity. Rauner’s campaign can be summed up as: “Don’t vote for those 3 guys. Vote for me and I will tell you later what I am going to do.”


  25. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:44 am:

    “If I drink Bud and like Bud, no amount of advertising will get me to switch”

    There are folks who are diehard supporters of the other three candidates, but it seems that Rauner has tapped into voter dissatisfaction of Springfield–even if his slogans are simplistic and easily challenged.

    Rauner said Medicaid expansion is a disaster, but what about the disaster of taking Medicaid money for nursing homes that were run into the ground?

    The union ads need to be effective, and quickly, to slow Rauner down. There is plenty of ammo for them, with Rauner’s statement of running the state like a business and nursing homes, the employees who were misclassified and ripped off and the hypocrisy of someone attacking unions and government while profiting immensely off of them.

    Super-rich plutocrat who wants to attack the middle class after profiting immensely from government is the general theme the unions need to convey in their ads. It’s easier said than done.


  26. - Downstater - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:44 am:

    Rauner is probably getting his fall campaign strategy up and running, now. Who can he help financially at the State Rep and State Senate level to help the Republicans gain some seats and eliminate the Democrats super majorities. I can think a some seats, where $100,000 or so would make the difference for the Republican candidate. With Quinn’s poll numbers, which Democrat outside of Chicago is going to want him at their side. None. I would suspect.


  27. - Walter Mitty - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:45 am:

    Thanks OW… I am not a tinfoil hat type… Or is that what all of them (maybe me say?) but too much is not adding up…And has not for a long time.


  28. - A guy... - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:48 am:

    Give Rutherford credit. He’s still pounding away. Showing more guts than the other 2 for sure. Despite a lousy week he’s still got his ball in the lottery drum.


  29. - ZC - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:53 am:

    My hunch (and only a hunch, I’m not a pro) is that spending money early in a race is somewhat analogous to running up the down escalator. You lose most of the ground you’ve gained - you’re sort of pissing away money / energy - but if you run fast and hard enough, and you keep running, you will slowly gain altitude on your opponents.

    Rauner has the money to burn, and it’s his comparative advantage. Money spent post-Olympics will have a much better rate of return, and you’ll climb faster and higher. But Rauner is building himself a lead. Ground game, shmound game. Ground games don’t move final polls more than 3-5%, -max-. I admit with low-turnout primaries it’s a bit dicier to estimate though.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:53 am:

    ===Who can he help financially at the State Rep and State Senate level to help the Republicans gain some seats and eliminate the Democrats super majorities. I can think a some seats, where $100,000 or so would make the difference for the Republican candidate. ===

    Is that the 2/3 of the Republicans that aren’t beholden to the Union Bosses, and aren’t Career Politicians?

    No Ground Game for Rauner yet. Ask “Brady 2010″ about Unions and no Ground Game and motivation …


  31. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:57 am:

    - John Galt -,

    Your “1) & 2)” is based on what?

    According to Rauner’s Crew, with all the endorsements from Rank and File organizations, and the tidal wave surging in the GOP, he has the momentum in the Party.

    Is tha above from me snark? It IS the narrative the Rauner Crew has, and the “3″ have very little to disprove it until their own GOTV beats Rauner in March, it is up for discussion with little proof one way or the other.


  32. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 10:58 am:

    @Wally -

    Rauner got $100k from Uihlein and $250k from Ken griffin.

    Speaking of Griffin, he wound up on the leaked list of big-time Koch Bros. Funders that met with them at their big confab last week.


  33. - Hey There - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:00 am:

    So have the unions actually purchased air time yet to run ads against Rauner? Time’s a wastin’ if they haven’t.
    Do you think the unions may have changed their minds on buying a bunch of pre-primary time so they save it for post-primary? I have to think they were hoping their pre-primary efforts would help Rutherford, but with him now looking like toast, do they want to dump their cash trying to help the other two who seem utterly incapable of helping themselves in their own primary?


  34. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    - Walter Mitty -, its all good. The back and forth here is what the comments are all about, and if I helped, that’s cool too.


  35. - Soccermom - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    I am getting pretty tired of the “I wake up thinking about your job” meme.

    2:33
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aXOKLbdtyA

    https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/53900029756313600

    http://www.wdrb.com/story/13061184/race-for-louisvilles-next-mayor-heats-up


  36. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:13 am:

    ===Ground game, shmound game. Ground games don’t move final polls more than 3-5%, -max-. I admit with low-turnout primaries it’s a bit dicier to estimate though.===

    “Right On!

    Signed,

    Dillard 2010, Primary Crew
    Brady 2010, General Election Crew”

    Yikes!


  37. - Soccermom - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:13 am:

    Oops. Wrong post.


  38. - Samurai - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:16 am:

    Dillard/Tracy are now the clear anti-Rauner vote and the ticket that can win the general election. Rutherford now is under a cloud that is not going away. Quinn will run over Dan. Quinn will also expose 1 percent Rauner for the egotistical deceptive candidate he is.

    The GOP has to come to the realization that no candidate is without negatives. I suspect that Dillard/Tracy are revisiting possible donors who may realize Rauner is not the answer, but he will be the problem.


  39. - Downstate - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    Hey There,
    The unions have a problem throwing money into the Republican primary. They can attack Rauner all they want, but they have to also support one of the other three - and that endorsement would be the kiss of death among rank and file Republican voters.
    Drawing Republican primary ballots is the unions only hope - but if you’re going to ask your members to do that, you still have to name a horse.


  40. - walker - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:30 am:

    Hard to claim an “independent investigation” in this case.

    Not assuming anything bad about the person doing it. Just bad optics.

    Hope for the best.


  41. - veritas - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:34 am:

    It’s very encouraging to know that the Illinois GOP was paying attention to the 2012 election and concluded that: #1. Hey, let’s run a Gazillionaire venture capitalist - that might work in a state dominated by Democrats and #2. Who needs a ground game??


  42. - veritas - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:37 am:

    OW: IF Rauner survives the primary - a sentiment still open to doubt - and winds up facing Quinn in the general election, do you want to go in with me on some T-shirts and Caps for Illinois Republicans that say, “What the $%&# was I thinking about??” Could be a big seller during Quinn’s second full term.


  43. - Downstater - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 11:38 am:

    =No Ground Game for Rauner yet. Ask “Brady 2010″ about Unions and no Ground Game and motivation=
    Not sure where you are at, but we have 4 inches of know on the ground and its 10 degrees. Let’s see getting people out to walk in those conditions or spend money on mailers and TV ads. Think, Rauner is making the right choice during the primary season.


  44. - steve schnorf - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:01 pm:

    For those who suggest that very large sums of money won’t make that much of a difference, think Rod vs JBT


  45. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:09 pm:

    ===Not sure where you are at, but we have 4 inches of know on the ground and its 10 degrees. Let’s see getting people out to walk in those conditions or spend money on mailers and TV ads. Think, Rauner is making the right choice during the primary season.===

    Have any of the 4 GOP candidates called into your house for a yard sign? Have any of the 4 called and asked you to volunteer? Have any of the 4 shown an aparatus to gather “pluses” from any lists, phone banks, endorsed organizations?

    Maybe you need to know what a Ground Game consists of, in its entirety, and its not about, “Golly its cold, lets just blow off voter Contact”

    Having campaign offices are swell for those either collecting rent from them, or donating them to feel like a big shot. The tool of using those offices, those phone banks, those lists, those sign locations, those endorsements, those GOTV aparatuses for a strong election day….

    They make all the difference in the workd.

    Cold. No cold. Snow. No snow. Whatever.


  46. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:13 pm:

    - veritas -,

    As a candidate myself, please refer all “business inquiries” to - AA - and the Con$ulting Firm for review. The Firm may have interest, but I can not be party to such a transaction…

    …so make sure you get that to - AA -, thanks!

    To that, no snark,

    Rauner has now called out a third of the GA GOP, but which third? Would make for an interesting State Fair, which GOP electied officials choose to be associated with Bruce Rauner, and which elected officals Bruce Rauner is going to want “with him” and if those are part of that “third” Rauner called out.


  47. - 4 percent - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:17 pm:

    Here are the questions that I want answered by Rutherford:

    1. Who is paying for the cost of the investigator? Is it the state or the campaign?

    2. If its a state issue, why did he bypass his own inspector general to conduct the report?


  48. - Downstater - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 12:54 pm:

    =Have any of the 4 GOP candidates called into your house for a yard sign? Have any of the 4 called and asked you to volunteer? Have any of the 4 shown an aparatus to gather “pluses” from any lists, phone banks, endorsed organizations?=
    Well, the answer you question Oswego, the Rauner campaign sends me emails, ask for donations, and lets me know their signs available. Oswego, you seem to be stuck in the last century. Campaigns are now targeting voters with specific tailored tv ads. Three different voters watching the same program get different commercials based on data captured. Put on your boots, parka, thermal underwear, and gloves and hit the streets for your guy Rutherford. Good luck with that.


  49. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:07 pm:

    ===Oswego, you seem to be stuck in the last century. Campaigns are now targeting voters with specific tailored tv ads. Three different voters watching the same program get different commercials based on data captured.===

    And you get those voters to the polls … how?

    Ask Dillard all about that, and ask Brady about 4 votes a precinct.

    Ads, like signs, don’t vote. They can influence, but don’t vote.

    ===Put on your boots, parka, thermal underwear, and gloves and hit the streets for your guy Rutherford.===

    Did you even read my comment? As for Rutherford, I am the opposite of Rauner. Rauner is “against anyone but Rauner”.

    I am “Anyone but Rauner”

    Please learn, and learn to read what I comment, how I comment, and what I am saying.

    Finally as for the …===Well, the answer you question Oswego, the Rauner campaign sends me emails, ask for donations, and lets me know their signs available.===

    The goal in all that is to get the “pluses” out to vote. You can send emails all day, heck i get emails telling me all kinds of things, but what you do with the info, and the contact, and getting the contact “pluses” to the Polls, and having the apratus set up for Election Day … emails aren’t making me all atwitter about a Rauner Ground Game.

    Rauner can’t even get people to some to his Bus Tour. Rauner has to have stops in crowded places and “surprise, I am here”, or have the owners of businesses “volunteer” the enployees to “listen”.

    A mile long, and an inch deep on the Ground Game, with misdirection and camouflage.


  50. - John Galt - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:12 pm:

    To OW @ 10:57,

    Points #1 and #2 both from anecdotal evidence as well as poll numbers. It’s very clear to me the race is breaking down into “Rauner” versus “Anti-Rauner” factions. To the benefit of Rauner, thus far, the “Anti-Rauner” factions are fractured and have not rallied behind one particular individual. The poll numbers bear this out in terms of tallying up the Anti-Rauner to Rauner percentages. But even talking to rank & file committeemen, the message I keep hearing is this: Brady is an afterthought, but if you’re a Dillard guy you could just as easily become a Rutherford guy & vice versa. Then there are some Rauner people who won’t be swayed. Perhaps there’s a poll out there that show who people’s ’second choice’ options are at this point, but I’m not aware of one. It’s just my impression of the race.

    My general point is that if a non-Rauner candidate is to have any chance, the ‘one’ needs to separate themselves from the ‘other two’ to the point that supporters of the other two abandon their original horses to jump on the one remaining viable “Anti-Rauner” candidate. For a non-Rauner to win, it effective needs to become, for all practical purposes, a binary race.

    Up until a short time ago, Rutherford was clearly starting to establish himself as that guy. But now with this nasty thing dragging on, one of two things will happen:

    1) Rutherford will be so damaged that Dillard & Brady folks certainly aren’t going to abandon their horses and jump on Rutherford now, but it’s possible that Rutherford will stay in it and try to duke it out. My prediction if this happens: the ‘three’ will remain largely fractured, no binary choice will emerge, and Rauner wins the primary, or

    2) Rutherford totally craters, and his resources (with or without Rutherford’s explicit endorsement) totally jump ship to another one of the remain two ‘Anti-Rauner’ candidates—probably Dillard. In this scenario, IF Dillard (or perhaps Brady if he somehow becomes ‘the guy’), can get their gears moving, raise last minute cash & a ground game, get the vast majority of the ‘Anti-Rauner’ votes and momentum, develop a binary choice scenario, and possibly beat Rauner in the primary.

    But in no circumstances do I see Rutherford squelching this stuff quickly, regaining his footing as the clear ‘Anti-Rauner’ guy, go the point of making it a binary race between him and Rauner. Even if the charges turn out to be bogus and that’s made clear in a week or two, that’s a critical few weeks where Rutherford is not generating a binary race by squeezing the life out of the Dillard or Brady campaigns.


  51. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 1:24 pm:

    ===…both from anecdotal evidence as well as poll numbers.===

    Rauner leads in the polls. All of them. In a four way race, anyone getting 50% would be gigantic. In four way race, you only need to win by 1 vote, just like any other race.

    As for “anecdotal”, the impact those in the “anecdotal” aspect to the polling still have Rauner winning.

    I am with you on the other aspects, but Rutherford, today, is “in”, as is Dillard and Brady. Wishing away, or trying to base arguements that are not based on the field at hand is fun for sharing a beverage, but not helpful to winning an election.

    Much respect. I do hear what you are saying, your points add to the arguement, but until the “3″ either become “1″, or Rauner implodes or is exposed, its just a parlor game. That really is my point.

    All good.


  52. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 2:32 pm:

    = His competitors don’t need to raise as much as he has, but they do need to raise enough to get on the radar more.=

    I can see most of John Galt’s 10:37 analysis. However, I’m still uncertain as to just how much Dillard and Brady need to “get on the radar more” to be effective. I think Primary voters pretty much know them, regardless of some of the flip-flops, errors, etc. they might make in the media. Rauner’s been the only “unknown” factor.


  53. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 2:59 pm:

    Re: four percent’s 12:17. I know that many feel this whole thing is unfair, to a certain degree it probably is, and that’s why it’s very unfortunate for all concerned.

    However, it seems to seriously be getting worse by the minute. “Directing” an “independent” audit or investigation is the last thing anyone should have said or even hinted at.


  54. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 3:14 pm:

    And just a general observation regarding a potential overall “benefit” to this entire, unfortunate situation: I am absolutely stunned by how it is that the private sector goes to the greatest extremes to implement and follow policies intended to help avoid litigation and from a regulatory perspective, the extremes to which companies choose to comply based on their interpretation of the regs AND ensure that there’s no hint of impropriety when it comes to ANY type of audit–internal, by external companies for certifications and/or dress rehearsals, or governmental.

    And yet our government seems to view the potential threat of lawsuits, perceptions of impropriety, audits, etc. the way a novice starting a small mom and pop shop probably would.


  55. - no excitement - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 4:02 pm:

    I’m mog sure what races OW has managed but this ground fame you speak of happens with hard work by the campaign but more importantly inspiration by the candidate.

    I seriously have found about 3% of GOP voters enthused about anyone. You follow this closely and you Dont appear to be sold on anyone. We have for dullards of which one is a gazillionaire


  56. - downstate commissioner - Thursday, Feb 6, 14 @ 5:27 pm:

    Think No excitement just summed up the Repub primary. None of my repub friends are saying much. I still support Rutherford strongly enough that if he drops out, I will resign myself to Quinn remaining as governor. Neither Dillard or Brady do anything for me as a candidate, and Rauner is going to buy the primary and Quinn is a lesser evil than him…


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