SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Friday, Apr 4, 2014

* ABC 7

Chicago’s first-quarter murder total this year hit its lowest number since 1958, police say.

The first three months of the year saw 6 fewer murders than the same time frame in 2013–a 9 percent drop–and 55 fewer murders than 2012, according to a statement from Chicago Police.

There were 90 fewer shootings and 119 fewer shooting victims, drops of 26 and 29 percent respectively, according to police statistics. Compared to the first quarter of 2012, there have been 222 fewer shootings and 292 fewer shooting victims.

* BizPac Review sucks its thumb

So what’s changed that could possibly account for such a dramatic fall in a city that was fast becoming known for its homicide rates — especially in its notorious South Side neighborhoods?

In July, the Illinois legislature overrode Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s veto to make The Land of Lincoln the final state in the country to have a concealed firearm carry permit law.

This is a classic case of correlation not being causation. The first 5,000 concealed carry permits weren’t mailed until February 28th, two months into the quarter.

Not to mention the coldest winter on record kept people cooped up inside. And the indisputable fact that the Chicago police have been doing a much better job at stopping crime over the past two years.

Don’t take any credit yet, gun-lovers.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


33 Comments
  1. - Ahoy! - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:20 pm:

    A couple gun rights groups are touting this through Facebook ad’s. I’m sure there are plenty of people out there not looking at facts and taking the ad as pure truth. Now, if gun violence raises this summer will they say it was because of conceal-carry?


  2. - A guy... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    Just ask experienced cops. Cold= lower crime. Hot = higher crime. Rain helps too. Without being able to produce a link (lol), I do remember reading a story several years ago that spoke to how Air Conditioning hastened huge amounts of migration to the Sun Belt and cities like Houston, Phoenix, etc. and a side benefit of more indoor climate control actually made measurable reductions in violent crime. Moods have plenty to do with it. Hot weather makes people more irritable. CC would seem to have nothing or very little to do with the reduction here this year. It was a long, cold, snowy winter.


  3. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:33 pm:

    Didn’t know that folks down in Palm Beach were so clued into the city.

    They should worry about their own neighborhood. West Palm and other towns in the county ain’t exactly Mayberry.


  4. - Mason born - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    Good for Chicago lets all hope the rest of the year keeps up the trend.

    I’m pretty sure the Coldest winter in Chicago and the hard work of CPD deserve the credit.

    Anyone trying to tie this to CCW needs to let go of their preconceived notions.


  5. - Upon Further Review - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    Concealed carry permits had nothing to do with this. The coldest winter in over one hundred and ten years deserves more credit than anything that the mayor and the police superintendent did by way of policy.

    By the way, with police being constantly reassigned to cover hot zones under the violence reduction initiative, many Chicagoans are seeing entire buildings covered with graffiti as they venture outside. Daley made graffiti removal a priority. Rahm?


  6. - Almost the Weekend - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:45 pm:

    Concealed Carry is irrelevant in this argument. The weather played the largest factor.

    I hope the Chicago PD are working overtime on the first weekend it hits 70.


  7. - fed up - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    Whats interesting is Monday after city announced this 3 murders occured that night into Tues morning.


  8. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:51 pm:

    I found this column interesting in regards to why Chicago’s murder rate has declined since the 90s.

    http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/26208033-452/whats-really-driving-down-chicagos-murder-rate.html


  9. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    === The first three months of the year saw 6 fewer murders than the same time frame in 2013 ===

    Most of that difference was accounted for in January.

    Murders in February 2014 and March 2014 both outpaced murders in February 2013 and March 2013, respectively.

    It’s far too early to get carried away one way or another.


  10. - Lobo Y Olla - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    “Not to mention the coldest winter on record kept people cooped up inside. ”

    This is a HUGE reason. If we have an unbearably hot summer, watch for an increase.


  11. - fed up - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    I think we can thank the Artic Vortex, Dec, Feb & March saw year over year increase in murders, Big drop in Jan year over year is what has caused the headline.


  12. - Anon - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Gun loving NRA member here. Disappointed groups are trying to spin this as a conceal carry success story.

    When you’ve got 49 states, an unimaginable amount of positive data and the full backing of the courts, there’s no reason to knowingly spin things like this. Shameful.


  13. - cicero - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    How many CC permits have been issued in the neighborhoods with the highest murder rates? I bet it’s precious few. And the number issued to the typical murder victim, namely young black men, is close to zero. Consequently, Second Amendment absolutists should, but probably won’t, refrain from making ridiculous claims for the efficacy of CC.


  14. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:15 pm:

    Plus, Chicago’s population is down significantly from roughly 3.6 million in the 1950’s.

    One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease.


  15. - Greg - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:17 pm:

    “This is a classic case of correlation not being causation.” Amen.

    However, assuming the kind of people who shoot one another on the streets understand the difference between a law passed, enacted and a license issued is a similar stretch. Correlation could exist — and as Joe Biden said, if it saves just one life…

    Still…Your winter up there… is most likely the better explanatory variable. Consider too…they’re running out of people to shoot. After a while people start looking around and noticing they could be next and consider there might be a better way to do this…


  16. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    –One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease.–

    Why? Overall number, yes, but rate is not dependent on population.


  17. - John A Logan - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:27 pm:

    At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become a part of the conversation about decreasing crime rates?


  18. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    –At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become a part of the conversation about decreasing crime rates?–

    Crime rates in Chicago and Illinois have been declining since the 90s. When do you think c-c should be part of the conservation for what’s been going on for more than 20 years?


  19. - 47th Ward - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become part of the conversation about the unusally cold spring we’re having?


  20. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:42 pm:

    === Why? ===

    lol, I wrote that in haste and completely failed to finish the sentence before clicking “say it”. Good eye, wordslinger. Rate is, obviously, independent of raw population size. The sentence should have read:

    === One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease and then some if they wish to truly claim any reductions in crime or homicides. ===

    In other words: If 10 people are killed in a city the size of 1,000, and then 50 years later 9 people are killed in a city that has shrunk to the size of 100, measuring the raw number of homicides alone may not truly indicate progress.

    That said, the massive CPD overtime initiative also appears to be helping make a difference.


  21. - Fan - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    One word caused this “Global Warming”.


  22. - Jimbo - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    I can play this game too. It was clearly the 50 million dollar violence prevention grants. I mean it is obvious.


  23. - Todd - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:11 pm:

    No carry permits in Janury, and none till the end of Feb. So 30 days in and what?

    Someone is trying to to make a claim out of whole cloth, and it ain’t me.


  24. - Jimbo - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:12 pm:

    Adding, it just takes awhile for the impact to be felt.


  25. - Linus - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:15 pm:

    Thanks, Obama!

    /snark


  26. - Secret Square - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:10 pm:

    Also, while prolonged cold weather would tend to reduce random street crime, might it not tend to increase crimes such as domestic violence and assaults/batteries among friends and acquaintances because people are going nuts from “cabin fever”?


  27. - Arthur Andersen - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    It happened because everyone was inside watching “Chicagoland.”


  28. - Wensicia - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Polar vortex gets the credit.

    Should I say the increase in home heating costs this winter reduced violence in the streets?


  29. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:40 pm:

    ===At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become part of the conversation about the unusally cold spring we’re having?===

    As in CCW came to IL, so the underworld must have frozen over?


  30. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:41 pm:

    ===Why? Overall number, yes, but rate is not dependent on population. ===

    I can see population *density* being a component, but not the actual population number.


  31. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:54 pm:

    Among American cities over 200,000 people, a Forbes analysis ranks the Ten Most Dangerous as:

    1. Detroit
    2. Oakland
    3. St. Louis
    4. Memphis
    5. Stockton
    6. Birmingham
    7. Baltimore
    8. Cleveland
    9.Atlanta
    10. Milwaukee

    I doubt if that list helps any arguments that c-c reduces crime.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/10/22/detroit-again-tops-list-of-most-dangerous-cities-but-crime-rate-dips/


  32. - persecuted - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 6:36 pm:

    Huge increase in snowshoe sales in Chicago as door to door delivery services were in great demand thus less contact between citizens. As a side note, sale and delivery of street drugs reach all time high and sharp dip in shootings.
    “Snark”


  33. - persecuted - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 6:42 pm:

    Left computer and returned and didn’t notice comments closed. Sorry for added comments.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Maybe not
* Question of the day
* Stating the obvious
* Oy
* US Chamber plots Zopp support, 10th CD intervention
* Today's quotable
* A $650 Million Day for Exelon
* Potential candidate: Unions "spreading propaganda" about Rauner
* Illinois Mayors Know What's Best For Their Communities
* First Lady's group blasts Gov. Rauner for "devastating policies"
* McCann: I was elected to serve my constituents, not Madigan, Cullerton or Rauner
* Arduin heads for the exit door
* Today's number: 1.1 percent
* Dealing with Pat Quinn's mess
* Today's must-read
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Honor 7 and Cheetah Mobile announce a partnership to enhance the user experience
        * iPhone 6s event confirmed, new Moto 360 leaks & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Huawei’s Honor 7 will sell direct to consumers in Europe
        * Apple patents wireless earphones with a different type of noise cancelation
        * Leaks bring new twist to rose gold iPhone 6s, Force Touch, and sapphire options
        * GigSky shows off their new travel SIM card with the Obi Worldphone
        * Joseph Gordon-Levitt, HitRECord and LG will work together on future projects

        * Rodon keeps rolling as Sox top Mariners
        * Eaton spark plug for Sox with key hits, hustle
        * Walker, Danks to duel for 2nd time this week
        * Rodon keeps rolling as Sox top Mariners
        * Sox don 'interesting' 1970s throwback uniforms
        * Sox don 'interesting' 1970s throwback uniforms
        * The ugly truth: Tonight's White Sox throwback uniforms are the best

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2015
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Doctor fights charges he misled patients about marijuana
        * Candidates looking to replace Schock meet for another debate
        * 2 dead in hazardous material incident outside Chicago
        * Fed judge: Verdict in Chicago lawyer's case Monday
        * Fed: Lies Chicago lawyer coached an 'assault' on justice
        * 8 treated for Legionnaires' disease at Quincy veterans home
        * US judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
        * Budget expert leaves Illinois without state spending plan
        * Jobless rates fall in all Illinois metro areas in July
        * Illinois State Fair manager: Past attendance data inflated

        * Budget consultant may get second contract extension from Rauner administration
        * Judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
        * Budget expert leaves Illinois without state spending plan
        * Gov. Rauner approves Springfield railroad oversight commission bill
        * Federal judge blasts Illinois for not making all ordered payments
        * Rauner approves rail commission bill
        * Illinois State Fair manager: Past fair attendance numbers were inflated
        * Buchen: Past state fair attendance numbers were inflated
        * Health Central makes preparations to open Springfield's first medical marijuana dispensary
        * State layoffs could shut down community garden at Illinois State Fairgrounds

        * United to replace Hospira in S&P 500 next week
        * Do patients held for observation skew performance on quality measures?
        * Union wins closely watched labor case over who's the boss
        * Deal to develop parkland near Indiana Dunes riles conservationists
        * CSO veteran will head Merit School of Music


          * 7 wounded in South, West side shootings
          * 8 treated for Legionnaires' disease at Quincy veterans home
          * Salvation Army opening big new campus in Humboldt Park
          * Loop fire causes Hazmat response
          * 2 Ingleside crash victims named, identification of 3rd pending DNA results
          * Off-duty officer dies following motorcycle crash
          * 2 dead, 1 hurt, 4 officers injured in suburban hazardous materials incident
          * Principal known as Emanuel critic reprimanded by mayor's school board
          * CPS exec says can't offer hunger strikers a Dyett decision yet
          * Gang leader indicted on gun charge a week after arrest in shooting


          * Our Opinion: Ducking sunshine in the digital age
          * E.J. Dionne: Trump's video game mastery
          * Esther Cepeda: Don't bake your DNA
          * Junaid Afeef: American Muslims can't tackle ISIS recruitment alone
          * Budget consultant may get second contract extension from Rauner administration
          * Judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
          * J. Fred Giertz: Illinois government: dysfunction by incompetence or by design?
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Tom Madonia Jr. may run against Rep. Sue Scherer
          * Write to us: Tell us your volunteer story
          * Eugene Robinson: How would market chaos affect the 2016 race?


          * Forty Under 40: Matt Difanis
          * Thursday's prep highlights: Cissna Park stays perfect
          * STM volleyball gives new coach first victory
          * N-G Football Top 10: No. 1 Tuscola
          * Illini women's tennis schedule released
          * Anderson advances to Winston-Salem semifinals
          * Survey says ... from Taylor Barton
          * Powell decides on surgery, done for season
          * Stuff Huff an extra-special occasion this year
          * Shackelford out, former Viking Davis in for UI


          * Glen Ellyn mulls how to handle downtown construction zones
          * Santa's Village halts tortoise shell decorating activity
          * Investigators comb scene for clues in deaths at Des Plaines-area home
          * Rodon, Eaton lead White Sox past Mariners, 4-2
          * Arbitrator rules against Bonds in collusion case

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Protest over GMOs - RiverBender.com...
          * Protest over GMOs - Alton Daily News...
          * Bustos to back Iranian pact: 'best path fo......

          * US Chamber plots Zopp support, 10th CD int......

          * Personal tech purcahases
          * EXTRA: The Top Ten
          * Legally Employed
          * Ex-Redflex CEO Pleads Guilty In Red Light Camera Bribery
          * “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
          * Lake Street Bridge Closed For Maintenance Saturday Morning
          * Alice Walker: Julian
          * edTPA and TFA are two sides of the same coin.
          * Di Leo: Government's Wasteful Spending, from the Forest to the Trees
          * Senator Duffy endorses McConchie over Sauer to succeed Rep. Ed Sullivan


          * Governor Rauner Requests SBA Assistance for Grundy, Iroquois Counties - Declaration would help people and businesses affected by summer storms with low-interest, long-term loans to help with recovery
          * Respiratory Illness at Illinois Veterans’ Home-Quincy
          * Governor Takes Bill Action
          * Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff from Sunrise, Thursday, August 27, 2015 until Sunset, Saturday, August 29, 2015.
          * Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff from Sunrise, Friday, August 28, 2015 until Sunset, Sunday, August 30, 2015.




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller