SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Friday, Apr 4, 2014

* ABC 7

Chicago’s first-quarter murder total this year hit its lowest number since 1958, police say.

The first three months of the year saw 6 fewer murders than the same time frame in 2013–a 9 percent drop–and 55 fewer murders than 2012, according to a statement from Chicago Police.

There were 90 fewer shootings and 119 fewer shooting victims, drops of 26 and 29 percent respectively, according to police statistics. Compared to the first quarter of 2012, there have been 222 fewer shootings and 292 fewer shooting victims.

* BizPac Review sucks its thumb

So what’s changed that could possibly account for such a dramatic fall in a city that was fast becoming known for its homicide rates — especially in its notorious South Side neighborhoods?

In July, the Illinois legislature overrode Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s veto to make The Land of Lincoln the final state in the country to have a concealed firearm carry permit law.

This is a classic case of correlation not being causation. The first 5,000 concealed carry permits weren’t mailed until February 28th, two months into the quarter.

Not to mention the coldest winter on record kept people cooped up inside. And the indisputable fact that the Chicago police have been doing a much better job at stopping crime over the past two years.

Don’t take any credit yet, gun-lovers.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


33 Comments
  1. - Ahoy! - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:20 pm:

    A couple gun rights groups are touting this through Facebook ad’s. I’m sure there are plenty of people out there not looking at facts and taking the ad as pure truth. Now, if gun violence raises this summer will they say it was because of conceal-carry?


  2. - A guy... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    Just ask experienced cops. Cold= lower crime. Hot = higher crime. Rain helps too. Without being able to produce a link (lol), I do remember reading a story several years ago that spoke to how Air Conditioning hastened huge amounts of migration to the Sun Belt and cities like Houston, Phoenix, etc. and a side benefit of more indoor climate control actually made measurable reductions in violent crime. Moods have plenty to do with it. Hot weather makes people more irritable. CC would seem to have nothing or very little to do with the reduction here this year. It was a long, cold, snowy winter.


  3. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:33 pm:

    Didn’t know that folks down in Palm Beach were so clued into the city.

    They should worry about their own neighborhood. West Palm and other towns in the county ain’t exactly Mayberry.


  4. - Mason born - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    Good for Chicago lets all hope the rest of the year keeps up the trend.

    I’m pretty sure the Coldest winter in Chicago and the hard work of CPD deserve the credit.

    Anyone trying to tie this to CCW needs to let go of their preconceived notions.


  5. - Upon Further Review - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    Concealed carry permits had nothing to do with this. The coldest winter in over one hundred and ten years deserves more credit than anything that the mayor and the police superintendent did by way of policy.

    By the way, with police being constantly reassigned to cover hot zones under the violence reduction initiative, many Chicagoans are seeing entire buildings covered with graffiti as they venture outside. Daley made graffiti removal a priority. Rahm?


  6. - Almost the Weekend - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:45 pm:

    Concealed Carry is irrelevant in this argument. The weather played the largest factor.

    I hope the Chicago PD are working overtime on the first weekend it hits 70.


  7. - fed up - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    Whats interesting is Monday after city announced this 3 murders occured that night into Tues morning.


  8. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:51 pm:

    I found this column interesting in regards to why Chicago’s murder rate has declined since the 90s.

    http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/26208033-452/whats-really-driving-down-chicagos-murder-rate.html


  9. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    === The first three months of the year saw 6 fewer murders than the same time frame in 2013 ===

    Most of that difference was accounted for in January.

    Murders in February 2014 and March 2014 both outpaced murders in February 2013 and March 2013, respectively.

    It’s far too early to get carried away one way or another.


  10. - Lobo Y Olla - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    “Not to mention the coldest winter on record kept people cooped up inside. ”

    This is a HUGE reason. If we have an unbearably hot summer, watch for an increase.


  11. - fed up - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    I think we can thank the Artic Vortex, Dec, Feb & March saw year over year increase in murders, Big drop in Jan year over year is what has caused the headline.


  12. - Anon - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Gun loving NRA member here. Disappointed groups are trying to spin this as a conceal carry success story.

    When you’ve got 49 states, an unimaginable amount of positive data and the full backing of the courts, there’s no reason to knowingly spin things like this. Shameful.


  13. - cicero - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    How many CC permits have been issued in the neighborhoods with the highest murder rates? I bet it’s precious few. And the number issued to the typical murder victim, namely young black men, is close to zero. Consequently, Second Amendment absolutists should, but probably won’t, refrain from making ridiculous claims for the efficacy of CC.


  14. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:15 pm:

    Plus, Chicago’s population is down significantly from roughly 3.6 million in the 1950’s.

    One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease.


  15. - Greg - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:17 pm:

    “This is a classic case of correlation not being causation.” Amen.

    However, assuming the kind of people who shoot one another on the streets understand the difference between a law passed, enacted and a license issued is a similar stretch. Correlation could exist — and as Joe Biden said, if it saves just one life…

    Still…Your winter up there… is most likely the better explanatory variable. Consider too…they’re running out of people to shoot. After a while people start looking around and noticing they could be next and consider there might be a better way to do this…


  16. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    –One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease.–

    Why? Overall number, yes, but rate is not dependent on population.


  17. - John A Logan - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:27 pm:

    At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become a part of the conversation about decreasing crime rates?


  18. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    –At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become a part of the conversation about decreasing crime rates?–

    Crime rates in Chicago and Illinois have been declining since the 90s. When do you think c-c should be part of the conservation for what’s been going on for more than 20 years?


  19. - 47th Ward - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become part of the conversation about the unusally cold spring we’re having?


  20. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:42 pm:

    === Why? ===

    lol, I wrote that in haste and completely failed to finish the sentence before clicking “say it”. Good eye, wordslinger. Rate is, obviously, independent of raw population size. The sentence should have read:

    === One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease and then some if they wish to truly claim any reductions in crime or homicides. ===

    In other words: If 10 people are killed in a city the size of 1,000, and then 50 years later 9 people are killed in a city that has shrunk to the size of 100, measuring the raw number of homicides alone may not truly indicate progress.

    That said, the massive CPD overtime initiative also appears to be helping make a difference.


  21. - Fan - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    One word caused this “Global Warming”.


  22. - Jimbo - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    I can play this game too. It was clearly the 50 million dollar violence prevention grants. I mean it is obvious.


  23. - Todd - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:11 pm:

    No carry permits in Janury, and none till the end of Feb. So 30 days in and what?

    Someone is trying to to make a claim out of whole cloth, and it ain’t me.


  24. - Jimbo - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:12 pm:

    Adding, it just takes awhile for the impact to be felt.


  25. - Linus - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:15 pm:

    Thanks, Obama!

    /snark


  26. - Secret Square - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:10 pm:

    Also, while prolonged cold weather would tend to reduce random street crime, might it not tend to increase crimes such as domestic violence and assaults/batteries among friends and acquaintances because people are going nuts from “cabin fever”?


  27. - Arthur Andersen - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    It happened because everyone was inside watching “Chicagoland.”


  28. - Wensicia - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Polar vortex gets the credit.

    Should I say the increase in home heating costs this winter reduced violence in the streets?


  29. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:40 pm:

    ===At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become part of the conversation about the unusally cold spring we’re having?===

    As in CCW came to IL, so the underworld must have frozen over?


  30. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:41 pm:

    ===Why? Overall number, yes, but rate is not dependent on population. ===

    I can see population *density* being a component, but not the actual population number.


  31. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:54 pm:

    Among American cities over 200,000 people, a Forbes analysis ranks the Ten Most Dangerous as:

    1. Detroit
    2. Oakland
    3. St. Louis
    4. Memphis
    5. Stockton
    6. Birmingham
    7. Baltimore
    8. Cleveland
    9.Atlanta
    10. Milwaukee

    I doubt if that list helps any arguments that c-c reduces crime.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/10/22/detroit-again-tops-list-of-most-dangerous-cities-but-crime-rate-dips/


  32. - persecuted - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 6:36 pm:

    Huge increase in snowshoe sales in Chicago as door to door delivery services were in great demand thus less contact between citizens. As a side note, sale and delivery of street drugs reach all time high and sharp dip in shootings.
    “Snark”


  33. - persecuted - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 6:42 pm:

    Left computer and returned and didn’t notice comments closed. Sorry for added comments.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* React to Rauner vetoes
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Rauner vetoes several union-backed bills
* This just in... Illinois Supreme Court accepts direct appeal of remap case
* Social service providers claim administration has "unchecked discretion" over paying off old contracts
* GOP poll: Kirk and Duckworth essentially tied, Clinton leads by 14
* Today's quotable
* The Roger Ailes connection to Illinois
* Even more editorial support for the Independent Map Amendment
* Question of the day
* Today in Illinois history
* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Rauner education press conference
* Trump's best point of the night
* Mrs. Rauner appears to support Turnaround Agenda strategy
* Caption contest!
* Adding some context to Rauner's e-mail diatribe
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Oh, this ought to be good
* Rauner apologizes for making "unfair, untrue" comments in old e-mail
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* If we had a personal cloud instead of a phone, would we be better off?
* iPhone 7 Pro specs and features, Galaxy Note 7 battery & more – Pocketnow Daily
* Evan Blass leaks Apple iPhone 7 release date
* SurveyMonkey proclaims peak Pokemon GO in US
* Instant hidden rebate for Moto G4 on Amazon
* Dots & Co. tweaks the Dots games by adding a friendly companion
* iPhone 7 Plus? iPhone 7 Pro? Here’s a video showing either or both of them

* White Sox rumors: Chris Sale, Jose Quintana talk dominating discuss...
* Could Morneau help end Sox offensive woes?
* Morneau's blast not enough as Sox fall
* Rangers making effort to acquire lefty Sale
* Lawrie's sore hamstring won't lead to DL stint
* Tigers 7, White Sox 5: Carson Fulmer falters in first test
* Morneau's blast not enough as Sox fall

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* React to Rauner vetoes - The Capitol Fax Blog (.....
* Rauner working with police on marijuana bill - .....
* Illinois governor working with police on mariju.....
* Illinois governor working with police on mariju.....
* Illinois governor working with police on mariju.....
* Illinois governor working with police on mariju.....
* Illinois governor working with police on mariju.....


* Chicago police say Uber driver a felon with handgun, drugs
* WNBA president lauds activism, wishes it was kept off court
* ACLU praises new Illinois limits on cellphone surveillance
* Boat slams into Lake Michigan break wall, killing 2 people
* Illinois governor working with police on marijuana bill
* Illinois church built in 1860s destroyed by fire
* Boy Scouts faring well a year after easing ban on gay adults
* Oil company expands drilling at Indiana State University
* 10 hospitalized after SUV rollover on Chicago freeway
* Gunfire injures 3 in Calumet City, including pregnant woman

* Rauner OKs regulating police use of cell-site simulators
* Illinois Supreme Court to consider remap ballot measure
* Rauner vetoes construction-wage, homecare-worker pay increases
* Rauner apologizes, Chicago teachers protest over 2011 email questioning their competency
* Providers: Stop gap budget won't have 'meaningful' impact
* Rauner apologizes for calling Chicago teachers illiterate
* Illinois ordered to rethink medical marijuana for migraines
* Rauner once called Chicago teachers 'virtually illiterate'
* Gov. Rauner signs early childhood law
* Rauner once called Chicago public school teachers 'virtually illiterate'

* Lolla at 25: The math on the tickets, the T-shirts, the grass (not that grass)
* How Clinton can out-convention Trump
* Trump's running mate has a business success story of his own to tell
* Duking it out for dominance at O'Hare
* Why we need to reverse Chicago's tree loss, and other letters from readers


* Wadsworth man charged in Lake County drug investigation
* Kaine liberal appeal muted by energy ties, abortion concerns
* Women report being groped on Northwest Side
* Uber driver charged with possession of firearm, marijuana
* Clinton and Kaine debut as Democratic ticket in Florida
* 2 killed in boat crash on Lake Michigan near East Chicago
* Person in custody following attempted bank robbery
* ISIS attack on Afghan protest kills at least 80, wounds 231
* Emma Roberts, Dave Franco prove they sure have ‘Nerve’
* Police say Munich suspect was obsessed with mass shootings


* New domestic violence law gives convicted murderer a shot at freedom
* German-Iranian citizen shouted anti-foreign slurs as he fired in Munich; 7 teens killed
* Islamic State claims attack on Afghan protesters demanding electricity; 80 dead, 231 wounded
* 10 injured in Bishop Ford rollover
* Suburban mother starts camp for kids with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder
* 2 dead, 16 wounded in Chicago shootings
* As Democrats' convention nears, hacked DNC emails are posted online
* Man found shot to death in Gary home
* Clinton and Kaine debut as Democratic ticket in Florida
* WNBA president talks about fining players over warmup shirts


* Joel Erickson: Sen. Kirk must stand up for veterans' rights
* Charles Krauthammer: Notes from Cleveland: The two-part rebellion
* Rauner OKs regulating police use of cell-site simulators
* Illinois Supreme Court to consider remap ballot measure
* Rauner vetoes construction-wage, homecare-worker pay increases
* Rauner apologizes, Chicago teachers protest over 2011 email questioning their competency
* Providers: Stop gap budget won't have 'meaningful' impact
* Rauner apologizes for calling Chicago teachers illiterate
* Illinois ordered to rethink medical marijuana for migraines
* Rauner once called Chicago teachers 'virtually illiterate'


* Tattoos in the workplace raise eyebrows
* Man shot in neck within blocks of police station
* Coffee With The Plant Experts 07-23-16
* PODCAST: Saturday Sports Talk 07-23-16
* Fire destroys Bentley Motors on city's south side
* Crime Stoppers of McLean County 7/23/16
* Bentley Motors on fire on city's south side
* Community urged to populate site, download app
* Renovated foreclosed homes now for lease
* King resigns, new member appointed to District 165 Board of Education


* Report of missing Gurnee man takes strange turns
* WNBA president lauds activism, wishes it was kept off court
* With a 3rd Tour title coming up, Froome turns focus to Rio
* Philadelphia primps, activists prepare for DNC convention
* Fans in Vegas miss Olympic hoops exhibition due to glitch

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Senators Durbin, Kirk Announce Reopening O......

* Letter: Kirk's integrity - Northwest Herald...

* Trumps returns to old ways: denials and finger-pointing about Cruz
* Trump returns to old ways: denials and finger-pointing about Cruz
* Illinois GOP delegates cast 54 votes for Trump, 9 for Cruz, 6 for Kasich
* IR Readers Favorites for Third Week of July 2016
* Plagiarism.
* KKK Wizard David Duke runs on the Trump Party ticket for Louisiana senator.
* Cartoon Of The Day
* Jonathan Halabi at the AFT. Day 2.
* Saw the new "Purge" movie recently
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective


* Discount Admission Tickets Available For Purchase At Area Retailers - Fair to extend purchasing hours at Emmerson Building
* Governor Announces Appointments
* New Halsted Street Bridge Finished at Byrne Interchange, Multimodal Travel, Neighborhood Connectivity Enhanced - Last of Eisenhower bridges to be completed, project moves into next phase
* No Pokemon Go access on Veteran Home’s grounds
* Governor Takes Bill Action




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller