SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Friday, Apr 4, 2014

* ABC 7

Chicago’s first-quarter murder total this year hit its lowest number since 1958, police say.

The first three months of the year saw 6 fewer murders than the same time frame in 2013–a 9 percent drop–and 55 fewer murders than 2012, according to a statement from Chicago Police.

There were 90 fewer shootings and 119 fewer shooting victims, drops of 26 and 29 percent respectively, according to police statistics. Compared to the first quarter of 2012, there have been 222 fewer shootings and 292 fewer shooting victims.

* BizPac Review sucks its thumb

So what’s changed that could possibly account for such a dramatic fall in a city that was fast becoming known for its homicide rates — especially in its notorious South Side neighborhoods?

In July, the Illinois legislature overrode Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s veto to make The Land of Lincoln the final state in the country to have a concealed firearm carry permit law.

This is a classic case of correlation not being causation. The first 5,000 concealed carry permits weren’t mailed until February 28th, two months into the quarter.

Not to mention the coldest winter on record kept people cooped up inside. And the indisputable fact that the Chicago police have been doing a much better job at stopping crime over the past two years.

Don’t take any credit yet, gun-lovers.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


33 Comments
  1. - Ahoy! - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:20 pm:

    A couple gun rights groups are touting this through Facebook ad’s. I’m sure there are plenty of people out there not looking at facts and taking the ad as pure truth. Now, if gun violence raises this summer will they say it was because of conceal-carry?


  2. - A guy... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    Just ask experienced cops. Cold= lower crime. Hot = higher crime. Rain helps too. Without being able to produce a link (lol), I do remember reading a story several years ago that spoke to how Air Conditioning hastened huge amounts of migration to the Sun Belt and cities like Houston, Phoenix, etc. and a side benefit of more indoor climate control actually made measurable reductions in violent crime. Moods have plenty to do with it. Hot weather makes people more irritable. CC would seem to have nothing or very little to do with the reduction here this year. It was a long, cold, snowy winter.


  3. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:33 pm:

    Didn’t know that folks down in Palm Beach were so clued into the city.

    They should worry about their own neighborhood. West Palm and other towns in the county ain’t exactly Mayberry.


  4. - Mason born - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    Good for Chicago lets all hope the rest of the year keeps up the trend.

    I’m pretty sure the Coldest winter in Chicago and the hard work of CPD deserve the credit.

    Anyone trying to tie this to CCW needs to let go of their preconceived notions.


  5. - Upon Further Review - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    Concealed carry permits had nothing to do with this. The coldest winter in over one hundred and ten years deserves more credit than anything that the mayor and the police superintendent did by way of policy.

    By the way, with police being constantly reassigned to cover hot zones under the violence reduction initiative, many Chicagoans are seeing entire buildings covered with graffiti as they venture outside. Daley made graffiti removal a priority. Rahm?


  6. - Almost the Weekend - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:45 pm:

    Concealed Carry is irrelevant in this argument. The weather played the largest factor.

    I hope the Chicago PD are working overtime on the first weekend it hits 70.


  7. - fed up - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    Whats interesting is Monday after city announced this 3 murders occured that night into Tues morning.


  8. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:51 pm:

    I found this column interesting in regards to why Chicago’s murder rate has declined since the 90s.

    http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/26208033-452/whats-really-driving-down-chicagos-murder-rate.html


  9. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    === The first three months of the year saw 6 fewer murders than the same time frame in 2013 ===

    Most of that difference was accounted for in January.

    Murders in February 2014 and March 2014 both outpaced murders in February 2013 and March 2013, respectively.

    It’s far too early to get carried away one way or another.


  10. - Lobo Y Olla - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    “Not to mention the coldest winter on record kept people cooped up inside. ”

    This is a HUGE reason. If we have an unbearably hot summer, watch for an increase.


  11. - fed up - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    I think we can thank the Artic Vortex, Dec, Feb & March saw year over year increase in murders, Big drop in Jan year over year is what has caused the headline.


  12. - Anon - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Gun loving NRA member here. Disappointed groups are trying to spin this as a conceal carry success story.

    When you’ve got 49 states, an unimaginable amount of positive data and the full backing of the courts, there’s no reason to knowingly spin things like this. Shameful.


  13. - cicero - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    How many CC permits have been issued in the neighborhoods with the highest murder rates? I bet it’s precious few. And the number issued to the typical murder victim, namely young black men, is close to zero. Consequently, Second Amendment absolutists should, but probably won’t, refrain from making ridiculous claims for the efficacy of CC.


  14. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:15 pm:

    Plus, Chicago’s population is down significantly from roughly 3.6 million in the 1950’s.

    One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease.


  15. - Greg - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:17 pm:

    “This is a classic case of correlation not being causation.” Amen.

    However, assuming the kind of people who shoot one another on the streets understand the difference between a law passed, enacted and a license issued is a similar stretch. Correlation could exist — and as Joe Biden said, if it saves just one life…

    Still…Your winter up there… is most likely the better explanatory variable. Consider too…they’re running out of people to shoot. After a while people start looking around and noticing they could be next and consider there might be a better way to do this…


  16. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    –One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease.–

    Why? Overall number, yes, but rate is not dependent on population.


  17. - John A Logan - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:27 pm:

    At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become a part of the conversation about decreasing crime rates?


  18. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    –At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become a part of the conversation about decreasing crime rates?–

    Crime rates in Chicago and Illinois have been declining since the 90s. When do you think c-c should be part of the conservation for what’s been going on for more than 20 years?


  19. - 47th Ward - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become part of the conversation about the unusally cold spring we’re having?


  20. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:42 pm:

    === Why? ===

    lol, I wrote that in haste and completely failed to finish the sentence before clicking “say it”. Good eye, wordslinger. Rate is, obviously, independent of raw population size. The sentence should have read:

    === One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease and then some if they wish to truly claim any reductions in crime or homicides. ===

    In other words: If 10 people are killed in a city the size of 1,000, and then 50 years later 9 people are killed in a city that has shrunk to the size of 100, measuring the raw number of homicides alone may not truly indicate progress.

    That said, the massive CPD overtime initiative also appears to be helping make a difference.


  21. - Fan - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    One word caused this “Global Warming”.


  22. - Jimbo - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    I can play this game too. It was clearly the 50 million dollar violence prevention grants. I mean it is obvious.


  23. - Todd - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:11 pm:

    No carry permits in Janury, and none till the end of Feb. So 30 days in and what?

    Someone is trying to to make a claim out of whole cloth, and it ain’t me.


  24. - Jimbo - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:12 pm:

    Adding, it just takes awhile for the impact to be felt.


  25. - Linus - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:15 pm:

    Thanks, Obama!

    /snark


  26. - Secret Square - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:10 pm:

    Also, while prolonged cold weather would tend to reduce random street crime, might it not tend to increase crimes such as domestic violence and assaults/batteries among friends and acquaintances because people are going nuts from “cabin fever”?


  27. - Arthur Andersen - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    It happened because everyone was inside watching “Chicagoland.”


  28. - Wensicia - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Polar vortex gets the credit.

    Should I say the increase in home heating costs this winter reduced violence in the streets?


  29. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:40 pm:

    ===At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become part of the conversation about the unusally cold spring we’re having?===

    As in CCW came to IL, so the underworld must have frozen over?


  30. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:41 pm:

    ===Why? Overall number, yes, but rate is not dependent on population. ===

    I can see population *density* being a component, but not the actual population number.


  31. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:54 pm:

    Among American cities over 200,000 people, a Forbes analysis ranks the Ten Most Dangerous as:

    1. Detroit
    2. Oakland
    3. St. Louis
    4. Memphis
    5. Stockton
    6. Birmingham
    7. Baltimore
    8. Cleveland
    9.Atlanta
    10. Milwaukee

    I doubt if that list helps any arguments that c-c reduces crime.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/10/22/detroit-again-tops-list-of-most-dangerous-cities-but-crime-rate-dips/


  32. - persecuted - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 6:36 pm:

    Huge increase in snowshoe sales in Chicago as door to door delivery services were in great demand thus less contact between citizens. As a side note, sale and delivery of street drugs reach all time high and sharp dip in shootings.
    “Snark”


  33. - persecuted - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 6:42 pm:

    Left computer and returned and didn’t notice comments closed. Sorry for added comments.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Memorial Day
* Gaming bill could grow
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - OT update
* Question of the day
* He gone
* Harmon: Rauner is "bullying" and "holding the entire state hostage"
* Today's quotable
* Madigan tax hike defeated
* Another welcomed change
* Business as usual is right
* Rauner to unveil actual bills today, with no "right to work" in sight
* Serving Consumers, Honoring Veterans – Credit Union Cooperative Values in Action
* Your daily "right to work" roundup
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Huawei uses fun video to tackle own name
        * Notifidgets brings widgets back to Lollipop lockscreen, sort of
        * Best Buy offering $100 gift card with LG G4, lists release dates
        * Google opens up code for Chrome for Android
        * Factory reset from some Android phones still leave data traces
        * LG sweetens its G4 deal for US shoppers with accessory bundle
        * Top 6 cloud storage apps for saving across devices [May 2015]

        * A Field Guide to Apple Watch Neuroses (Comic)
        * Apple Rumored To Include Local TV Stations In Upcoming Apple TV
        * All Project Fi Invitations Should Have Gone Out By Summer
        * Researchers Find Factory Resets Doesn’t Really Wipe Everything
        * HopSkipDrive Claims a Ride-Hailing First: Fingerprint Background Checks
        * Google Reportedly Testing New Mobile Image Search Results Design
        * LG G Watch R WiFi Compatibility Coming Q3 2015

        * Danks dinged early as Sox drop third straight
        * Konerko's everyman style made him a favorite
        * Terrerobytes: Upon further review, baserunning is getting more phys...
        * Danks dinged early as Sox drop third straight
        * Offense lacking, arms shaky in first home series loss
        * Danks dinged early as Sox drop third straight
        * Indians 5, White Sox 2: A total team loss

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Rauner’s New State Prisons Chief Abruptly .....
        * Democrats giving no hint of compromise with Rau.....
        * No more theft from task forces..
        * Right to Work Zones and Unions in the Black Com.....
        * Rauner names four to Tollway board..
        * Rauner names 4 to Illinois Tollway Authority..
        * Gambling Casino Quite a Crap Shoot for Chicago’.....
        * Illinois Prisons Director Resigns After Two Mon.....
        * Inmates GED bill heads to Rauner's desk..
        * HS senior who was homeless, pregnant in 8th gra.....


        * Democrats giving no hint of compromise with Rauner on budget
        * Rauner names 4 to Illinois Tollway Authority
        * Murray Energy expects more than 1,800 coal mine layoffs
        * Illinois prisons director resigns 2 months after taking job
        * Illinois mom takes son's place at graduation after he dies
        * Drew Peterson granted trial delay in murder-for-hire case
        * Sand dune along Lake Michigan to remain closed this summer
        * Military: Army infantryman from Illinois AWOL in Colorado
        * Gov. Rauner to put pro-business bills before Legislature
        * Chicago man accused of killing mother, beating brother

        * Langfelder talks DNR lake partnership
        * U of I bracing for 'very damaging' cuts, new president says
        * Illinois prisons director resigns 2 months after taking job
        * State report says Illinois college chiefs enjoy lavish perks
        * House Democrats vote down workers comp bill
        * Millionaire tax falls short in Illinois House
        * Gov. Rauner softens some 'turnaround agenda' demands amid ongoing budget battle
        * Illinois State Board of Education promises shorter PARCC exam next school year
        * Union bulletin: Gov. Rauner wants wage freeze, vacation and holiday time reductions
        * Illinois Senate approves bill allowing bobcat hunting

        * First look: Hotel Allegro's $15 million renovation
        * Need a job? China Inc. is coming to Illinois—and it's hiring
        * Rauner to put pro-business bills before Legislature
        * Alma Mater vandals, you're on camera
        * Smiling cookie spat goes to court


          * Cop purportedly sleeping on video gets suspension
          * Illinois bill aims for local police to investigate college campus sexual assaults
          * Rauner names four to Tollway board
          * 606 trail inspires excitement, fear from neighbors
          * CTA Yellow Line to remain closed several more weeks
          * Illinois prisons director resigns 2 months after taking job
          * Rauner agenda unveiled, splits Democrats and Republicans
          * Wisconsin could make it legal for deer hunters to wear pink
          * Exotic dancer arrested in attempted bank robbery
          * Sand dune where boy was trapped to remain closed this summer


          * Illinois Supreme Court hears $10B Phillip Morris appeal
          * Sheriff calls on feds to investigate Puerto Rican agencies that send addicts to Chicago
          * Sheriff names clinical psychologist to run Cook County Jail
          * Illinois prisons director resigns 2 months after taking job
          * Obama library foundation raised $5.4 million in 2014
          * Illinois moves to downgrade pot possession to a fine
          * Emanuel calls on Chicagoans to prevent 'lost generation'
          * Grand Jury Indicts 6 Baltimore Officers In Freddie Gray's Death
          * Inauguration Day: New City Council faces serious financial problems
          * Avian flu outbreak takes poultry producers into uncharted territory


          * Langfelder talks DNR lake partnership
          * U of I bracing for 'very damaging' cuts, new president says
          * Illinois prisons director resigns 2 months after taking job
          * State report says Illinois college chiefs enjoy lavish perks
          * House Democrats vote down workers comp bill
          * Dave Root: Illinois unwisely outsourcing PARCC assessments
          * Millionaire tax falls short in Illinois House
          * Gov. Rauner softens some 'turnaround agenda' demands amid ongoing budget battle
          * Illinois State Board of Education promises shorter PARCC exam next school year
          * Union bulletin: Gov. Rauner wants wage freeze, vacation and holiday time reductions


          * LIVE! Big Ten Tournament (Michigan State)
          * Upcoming Services
          * SportsTalk 05-22-15
          * Lawmakers vote Murphysboro BBQ Capital of Illinois
          * Terry Wallace
          * Murray Energy expects more than 1,800 coal mine layoffs
          * Illinois 13 lane closures near Giant City Road begin Tuesday
          * Crime Stoppers of McLean County 5/23/15
          * Judge calls man sexual predator, gives him 62 years in prison
          * PODCAST: Luke Boyce - Shatterglass Studios 5-22-15


          * Dead animals found in oil spill: 3 pelicans, 1 dolphin
          * Hawks' DeMarre Carroll starts vs. Cavaliers in Game 2
          * Owner of Gasthaus in Elgin claims he's being targeted
          * Only Child Brewing Co. moving to Gurnee business park, latest on craft beer scene
          * Ducks willing to put themselves in harm's way

          * Congress Passes Controversial Bill Banning...
          * Dold hosts veterans in round table discussion
          * House OKs bill to ban abortion after 20 weeks
          * Congresswoman Bustos seeks Warrior fellow
          * Cops Who Lost Guns Still Protecting GOP Le...
          * Black candidates make history in McKeesport
          * Marine Cole Van Dorn buried at Arlington, ...
          * Kinzinger challenges Obama on militants
          * Democrats’ path to victory in the House: I...
          * Community leaders meet about Hero Street coin

          * Merkley: Halt 'irresponsible' reopened Arc......
          * Obama’s Strategy Against Islamic State Und......
          * GOP nuclear-waste strategy emerges, but wi......
          * Earthjustice Applauds Action by 18 U.S. Se......

          * Poll: Duckworth Zaps Zopp in U.S. Senate D......
          * Kathleen Matthews Made An Awkward Donation......

          * 350 Springfield drivers to save $.55 per gallon in fuel taxes Friday morning
          * UPDATE: 350 Springfield drivers saved $.55 per gallon in fuel taxes Friday morning
          * Local Book Notes: Secret Hospital Rooms Of The 1%
          * The Beachwood Radio Sports Hour #52: The Blackhawks' Biggest Problem
          * Meet The 19th District's New Police Commander
          * Four More Years, According To Ald. Cappleman
          * Rep. Kinzinger: Not Letting Illegals Serve In Military Comes From "Very Ugly Place" In GOP
          * Pawn Star's Rick Harrison picks Rubio for prez
          * Illinois opt out bill is now headed for the Senate.
          * Dianne Daleiden: Intrinsic Charters tip toe past the graveyard.


          * The Illinois Department of Public Health Urges Illinoisans to Take Precautions Against West Nile Virus - Illinois Department of Public Health offers tips for avoiding mosquito bites
          * IDOT Suspends Non-Emergency Road Work for Memorial Day Holiday Weekend - Lanes Opened to Improve Traffic Flow
          * Illinois State Fire Marshal Recognizes EMS Week
          * IDOT, ISP: Drive Safe, Drive Smart Over Memorial Day Weekend - Click It or Ticket Campaign Continues, New “Driving Dead” Episode Debuts
          * Breakfast Club Fans Can Take Home Movie Memorabilia with Special 30th Anniversary Auction - Theater Chairs from Set of Iconic Movie Up for Sale




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller