SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Friday, Apr 4, 2014

* ABC 7

Chicago’s first-quarter murder total this year hit its lowest number since 1958, police say.

The first three months of the year saw 6 fewer murders than the same time frame in 2013–a 9 percent drop–and 55 fewer murders than 2012, according to a statement from Chicago Police.

There were 90 fewer shootings and 119 fewer shooting victims, drops of 26 and 29 percent respectively, according to police statistics. Compared to the first quarter of 2012, there have been 222 fewer shootings and 292 fewer shooting victims.

* BizPac Review sucks its thumb

So what’s changed that could possibly account for such a dramatic fall in a city that was fast becoming known for its homicide rates — especially in its notorious South Side neighborhoods?

In July, the Illinois legislature overrode Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn’s veto to make The Land of Lincoln the final state in the country to have a concealed firearm carry permit law.

This is a classic case of correlation not being causation. The first 5,000 concealed carry permits weren’t mailed until February 28th, two months into the quarter.

Not to mention the coldest winter on record kept people cooped up inside. And the indisputable fact that the Chicago police have been doing a much better job at stopping crime over the past two years.

Don’t take any credit yet, gun-lovers.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


33 Comments
  1. - Ahoy! - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:20 pm:

    A couple gun rights groups are touting this through Facebook ad’s. I’m sure there are plenty of people out there not looking at facts and taking the ad as pure truth. Now, if gun violence raises this summer will they say it was because of conceal-carry?


  2. - A guy... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    Just ask experienced cops. Cold= lower crime. Hot = higher crime. Rain helps too. Without being able to produce a link (lol), I do remember reading a story several years ago that spoke to how Air Conditioning hastened huge amounts of migration to the Sun Belt and cities like Houston, Phoenix, etc. and a side benefit of more indoor climate control actually made measurable reductions in violent crime. Moods have plenty to do with it. Hot weather makes people more irritable. CC would seem to have nothing or very little to do with the reduction here this year. It was a long, cold, snowy winter.


  3. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:33 pm:

    Didn’t know that folks down in Palm Beach were so clued into the city.

    They should worry about their own neighborhood. West Palm and other towns in the county ain’t exactly Mayberry.


  4. - Mason born - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    Good for Chicago lets all hope the rest of the year keeps up the trend.

    I’m pretty sure the Coldest winter in Chicago and the hard work of CPD deserve the credit.

    Anyone trying to tie this to CCW needs to let go of their preconceived notions.


  5. - Upon Further Review - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:37 pm:

    Concealed carry permits had nothing to do with this. The coldest winter in over one hundred and ten years deserves more credit than anything that the mayor and the police superintendent did by way of policy.

    By the way, with police being constantly reassigned to cover hot zones under the violence reduction initiative, many Chicagoans are seeing entire buildings covered with graffiti as they venture outside. Daley made graffiti removal a priority. Rahm?


  6. - Almost the Weekend - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:45 pm:

    Concealed Carry is irrelevant in this argument. The weather played the largest factor.

    I hope the Chicago PD are working overtime on the first weekend it hits 70.


  7. - fed up - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:46 pm:

    Whats interesting is Monday after city announced this 3 murders occured that night into Tues morning.


  8. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:51 pm:

    I found this column interesting in regards to why Chicago’s murder rate has declined since the 90s.

    http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/26208033-452/whats-really-driving-down-chicagos-murder-rate.html


  9. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    === The first three months of the year saw 6 fewer murders than the same time frame in 2013 ===

    Most of that difference was accounted for in January.

    Murders in February 2014 and March 2014 both outpaced murders in February 2013 and March 2013, respectively.

    It’s far too early to get carried away one way or another.


  10. - Lobo Y Olla - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    “Not to mention the coldest winter on record kept people cooped up inside. ”

    This is a HUGE reason. If we have an unbearably hot summer, watch for an increase.


  11. - fed up - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:11 pm:

    I think we can thank the Artic Vortex, Dec, Feb & March saw year over year increase in murders, Big drop in Jan year over year is what has caused the headline.


  12. - Anon - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:12 pm:

    Gun loving NRA member here. Disappointed groups are trying to spin this as a conceal carry success story.

    When you’ve got 49 states, an unimaginable amount of positive data and the full backing of the courts, there’s no reason to knowingly spin things like this. Shameful.


  13. - cicero - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    How many CC permits have been issued in the neighborhoods with the highest murder rates? I bet it’s precious few. And the number issued to the typical murder victim, namely young black men, is close to zero. Consequently, Second Amendment absolutists should, but probably won’t, refrain from making ridiculous claims for the efficacy of CC.


  14. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:15 pm:

    Plus, Chicago’s population is down significantly from roughly 3.6 million in the 1950’s.

    One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease.


  15. - Greg - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:17 pm:

    “This is a classic case of correlation not being causation.” Amen.

    However, assuming the kind of people who shoot one another on the streets understand the difference between a law passed, enacted and a license issued is a similar stretch. Correlation could exist — and as Joe Biden said, if it saves just one life…

    Still…Your winter up there… is most likely the better explanatory variable. Consider too…they’re running out of people to shoot. After a while people start looking around and noticing they could be next and consider there might be a better way to do this…


  16. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    –One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease.–

    Why? Overall number, yes, but rate is not dependent on population.


  17. - John A Logan - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:27 pm:

    At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become a part of the conversation about decreasing crime rates?


  18. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    –At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become a part of the conversation about decreasing crime rates?–

    Crime rates in Chicago and Illinois have been declining since the 90s. When do you think c-c should be part of the conservation for what’s been going on for more than 20 years?


  19. - 47th Ward - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become part of the conversation about the unusally cold spring we’re having?


  20. - Formerly Known As... - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:42 pm:

    === Why? ===

    lol, I wrote that in haste and completely failed to finish the sentence before clicking “say it”. Good eye, wordslinger. Rate is, obviously, independent of raw population size. The sentence should have read:

    === One should expect the murder rate to decline in proportion with the significant population decrease and then some if they wish to truly claim any reductions in crime or homicides. ===

    In other words: If 10 people are killed in a city the size of 1,000, and then 50 years later 9 people are killed in a city that has shrunk to the size of 100, measuring the raw number of homicides alone may not truly indicate progress.

    That said, the massive CPD overtime initiative also appears to be helping make a difference.


  21. - Fan - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 2:45 pm:

    One word caused this “Global Warming”.


  22. - Jimbo - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:05 pm:

    I can play this game too. It was clearly the 50 million dollar violence prevention grants. I mean it is obvious.


  23. - Todd - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:11 pm:

    No carry permits in Janury, and none till the end of Feb. So 30 days in and what?

    Someone is trying to to make a claim out of whole cloth, and it ain’t me.


  24. - Jimbo - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:12 pm:

    Adding, it just takes awhile for the impact to be felt.


  25. - Linus - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 3:15 pm:

    Thanks, Obama!

    /snark


  26. - Secret Square - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:10 pm:

    Also, while prolonged cold weather would tend to reduce random street crime, might it not tend to increase crimes such as domestic violence and assaults/batteries among friends and acquaintances because people are going nuts from “cabin fever”?


  27. - Arthur Andersen - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:27 pm:

    It happened because everyone was inside watching “Chicagoland.”


  28. - Wensicia - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Polar vortex gets the credit.

    Should I say the increase in home heating costs this winter reduced violence in the streets?


  29. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:40 pm:

    ===At what point will concealed carry be allowed to become part of the conversation about the unusally cold spring we’re having?===

    As in CCW came to IL, so the underworld must have frozen over?


  30. - Ken_in_Aurora - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:41 pm:

    ===Why? Overall number, yes, but rate is not dependent on population. ===

    I can see population *density* being a component, but not the actual population number.


  31. - wordslinger - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 4:54 pm:

    Among American cities over 200,000 people, a Forbes analysis ranks the Ten Most Dangerous as:

    1. Detroit
    2. Oakland
    3. St. Louis
    4. Memphis
    5. Stockton
    6. Birmingham
    7. Baltimore
    8. Cleveland
    9.Atlanta
    10. Milwaukee

    I doubt if that list helps any arguments that c-c reduces crime.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2013/10/22/detroit-again-tops-list-of-most-dangerous-cities-but-crime-rate-dips/


  32. - persecuted - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 6:36 pm:

    Huge increase in snowshoe sales in Chicago as door to door delivery services were in great demand thus less contact between citizens. As a side note, sale and delivery of street drugs reach all time high and sharp dip in shootings.
    “Snark”


  33. - persecuted - Friday, Apr 4, 14 @ 6:42 pm:

    Left computer and returned and didn’t notice comments closed. Sorry for added comments.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* In which I agree with the governor
* Stuff you may not know about Illinois pensions
* It's just a bill
* Question of the day
* AG Madigan wants expansion of hate crime law
* Déjà vu all over again
* Rauner defends grand bargain parameters
* "We are proud to call him one of our own"
* Springfield holds its collective breath as strike talk mounts, budget impasse continues
* *** LIVE *** House session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Rich Miller: S&P's dismal report on Illinois pu.....
* Rich Miller: S&P's dismal report on Illinois pu.....
* AFSCME members could lose their jobs in a strik.....
* AFSCME members could lose their jobs in a strik.....
* Madigan motion to dissolve worker pay by end of.....
* Hughes: Radogno's poor showing in Grand Bargain.....


* Parking near Wrigley Field about to get more expensive
* Tight budget might mean no sheriff's patrols on Rock River
* Authorities shooting deaths of 2 was murder-suicide
* Authorities shooting deaths of 2 was murder-suicide
* Father of dead Navy SEAL refused to meet Trump at ceremony
* 2 young girls found dead after Chicago house fire
* Lawyer for ex-Rep. Jackson seeks shorter supervision period
* Lawyer for ex-Rep. Jackson seeks shorter supervision period
* Urbana man who killed son pleads guilty to 2nd-degree murder
* Urbana man who killed son pleads guilty to 2nd-degree murder

* Sanctuary issue draws dueling demonstrations to Capitol
* Rauner's office: Gov spends 55% of Illinois nights at Mansion
* Report: State senator's law firm dealings under scrutiny
* Durbin wants open look at Russian involvement in election
* Trump puts moderate GOP governors in awkward spot
* Economic stakes high for Springfield in labor showdown
* AFSCME authorizes strike, but still wants to bargain with Rauner
* AFSCME members authorize leaders to call strike
* Madigan forms Illinois House panel to address school funding
* Ex-U.S. Rep. Jackson gets about $138,400 in annual benefits

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* For Chicago museums, it pays to be on public land
* Exelon hunts more state nuke subsidies following Illinois win
* Let's pass a law: No Illinois budget, no one gets re-elected
* After Seaway, what a true community bank looks like


* Dear Abby: New mom unsure how to find good day care
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Feb. 27, 2017
* Opinion: New rules, same humans
* Trump expected to sign new exec order on immigration Wednesday
* Denzel Washington ‘marries’ Chicago couple at Oscars telecast
* Best foreign film winner Asghar Farhadi’s Oscar acceptance speech
* Blackhawks beat Blues for ninth win in 10 games
* 3-point barrage keys Illinois’ victory over Nebraska
* AMPAS president Cheryl Boone Isaacs: ‘Art has no borders’
* Father of dead Navy SEAL refused to meet Trump at ceremony


* Baylor coach Kim Mulkey walks back her message about sexual-assault scandal
* Trump faces a pivotal week ahead as he addresses jittery GOP lawmakers
* 'Moonlight' wins best picture after 'La La Land' presented award in error
* Oscars 2017: Complete list of winners
* Photos: Oscars 2017
* Top two lines continue scorching for Blackhawks in 4-2 win over Blues
* Mark Giangreco's penalty for anti-Trump tweet a wake-up call for media members
* Denzel Washington 'marries' Gary from Chicago and girlfriend at the Oscars
* Iran's Asghar Farhadi, absent at Oscars, pleads for empathy in win for 'The Salesman'
* These Iowans voted for Trump. Many of them are already disappointed.


» Chicagoans Rally To Support Trans Rights After Trump Rescinds Student Protections
» Rauner Has Plan To Keep Government Running In Case Of Strike
» Congressman Rush Declares His Offices As Sanctuaries
» Weekend Funerals For Young Victims Of Chicago Violence
» CPS Relents, Returns $15 Million to Poorest Chicago Schools
» Doctors Discuss Alternatives To Opioids For Pain
» State Week: Will AFSCME Strike?
» Illinois Lawmakers: NEIU Student Workers Can Only Keep Jobs If State Passes Budget
» Civil Rights Investigation Into Cicero Schools Not Its First
» Indivisible Illinois Activists Concerned About Bobby Rush's Absence From Congress


* Sanctuary issue draws dueling demonstrations to Capitol
* Angie Muhs: It's time to name another Reader Advisory Board
* Bernard Schoenburg: Duckworth names 'thoughtful' former boss to downstate post
* Statehouse Insider: It's not the money, it's the appearance
* Our View: It's time for penance at the Capitol
* Rauner's office: Gov spends 55% of Illinois nights at Mansion
* Community Foundation: Sister's legacy lives on through scholarship fund
* Report: State senator's law firm dealings under scrutiny
* Durbin wants open look at Russian involvement in election
* Charles Krauthammer: Trump and the ‘Madman Theory’


* Defensive intensity keys three-game winning streak
* Illini grades vs. Nebraska: Abrams gets hot
* Illini notes: Abrams finds the range; Hill continues moving up the Illini’s career scoring chart
* Tate: Illini find themselves in range of NCAA tournament
* Class 3A and 4A boys' basketball storylines
* Advanced Prep (Week of Feb. 27)
* Richey: Illini have to keep winning
* PODCAST: Fasteners Etc. Postgame Show 2-26-17
* Photo: Health check
* Council to review two water agreements


* Images: Academy Awards
* Oops La La! Envelope mix-up nearly gives Best Picture Oscar to wrong movie
* Take two: 'Moonlight' wins best picture at Academy Awards
* Vrbata's late goal lifts Coyotes past Sabres
* Turris, Anderson lead Senators to 2-1 win over Panthers

* GOP congressman appears to distance himsel...
* US Representative Randy Hultgren visits ne...
* Hultgren criticizes immigration ban, Roska...
* Hultgren to join veterans' forum at Geneva...
* Hultgren to participate in veterans forum ...
* Protesters Demand Town Hall Meetings From ...
* Majority of IL Congressional Delegation Op...
* Group upset with Trump wants Town Hall mee...
* US Congressman tours new Aurora Specialty ...
* Protesters converge on US Rep. Randy Hultg...

* Atlantic Track & Turnout hosts staff from ......
* Political math is not economic math - Wash......

* Tammy Duckworth sets Commencement speaker ......

* Statehouse 'civil war' to occur this spring on immigration disputes?
* This morning students at Swarthmore College are sitting-in, demanding that the administration divest in fossil fuel.
* Democratic Party suicide?
* Maryville East Coming Down Quickly
* #LibertysPromise
* The Democratic establishment.
* 81% of AFSCME Illinois state workers vote for strike authorization.
* Reading and slave insurrection.
* You’re not welcome here.
* Mem Fox’s read-aloud commandments.


* Governor Bruce Rauner Honors Carnegie Hero From Buffalo Grove
* Governor Addresses State Board of Education to Emphasize Importance of Strong Accountability Standards
* Stars and Legends to Perform at 2017 Illinois State Fair - First Round of Grandstand Headliners Announced for Springfield Fair
* Earthquake Education Kiosk Unveiled at University Mall in Carbondale - IEMA, Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium project will help southern Illinois residents reduce damage, injuries from earthquakes
* Governor Takes Bill Action

  
* Apple reportedly starting to keep warranty on iPhones with third-party screens
* Lenovo and Amazon are working on an Alexa Moto Mod
* Samsung embraces makers, Casey Neistat narrates powerful TV ad
* MWC 2017: Google Assistant Expands Beyond Pixel to New Android Smartphones
* Google Photos is getting an ad spot during the Oscars
* Samsung Galaxy Tab S3 specifications
* Major U.S. carriers confirm LG G6 availability this spring

* Family support helps Gonzalez tune for Classic
* Rodon 'all good' as he eases into spring action
* White Sox motivated to emulate Cubs' success
* Asche gets White Sox started in Quintana's debut
* Collins, Moncada make Sox debuts in Cactus opener
* Fulmer looks to keep learning throughout spring
* Fulmer's strong start highlights Cactus opener


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller