SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
How many niche voters make a majority?

Monday, Jun 16, 2014

* If you Google “GTCR” and “Niche” you get about 136,000 results. That was the inspiration for my Crain’s Chicago Business column

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner leads Gov. Pat Quinn in every poll. Prognosticator Nate Silver recently gave Mr. Rauner a 75 percent chance of victory.

But since Illinois is such a traditionally Democratic state, Mr. Rauner appears to be using a lesson he learned at his former private-equity firm as a road map to victory.

Under his leadership, Chicago-based GTCR LLC specialized in buying successful “niche” companies and then using their profits and expertise to expand in their respective industries.

Mr. Rauner followed this niche approach to win the GOP nomination. He started with his big-business pals, who in the past have been divided over candidates. But this time they were all with him, including those who previously had supported his opponents.

Because he’s pro-choice, Mr. Rauner had some trouble gaining traction with tea party groups, which still have some power, at least nationwide, as U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor learned to his dismay on June 10. But a new tea party chapter popped up in January in the southwest suburbs. Mr. Rauner has used that group’s kindness, along with his backing for term limits to push state legislators out of office, to eventually make some inroads.

All of that and much more combined to help him win a narrow victory in the March 20 primary.

Mr. Rauner is using the same strategy for Nov. 4.

Click here to read the rest.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


20 Comments
  1. - William j Kelly - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:39 am:

    It doesn’t surprise me Rauner niched out a victory with the help ofRahm’s billionaires in the republican primary but Rahm’s billionaires will only hurt him in the general.


  2. - Usually Silent Observer - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    Excellent analysis of the Rauner strategy, Rich. Scary, if it works.


  3. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    I read this morning in another op-ed piece that Rauner’s firm GTCT had only one Latina, two Asian-descended people and…zero African-Americans as top executives.

    The Rauner Campaign postures with two African-Americans and a Latino in TV commercials, but in real life, few are to be found in the top reaches of a company that enriched Rauner.

    Quinn ought to make a strong play for suburban women. Women tend to be more liberal or Democratic than men. Obama creamed Romney with women in exit polls.


  4. - OneMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    Excellent analysis of the Rauner strategy, Rich. Scary, if it works.

    Guess I am missing why it is ’scarry’…

    Also G of M, nice job repeating the Quinn talking points there…


  5. - Hit or Miss - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Bruce Rauner’s campaign has featured an ad with his wife saying he “doesn’t have a social agenda”. We also know he’s pro-choice. Tea party members are big on a wide range of social issues. Will tea party members back Rauner only because they like Quinn even less or will they just sit the election out?


  6. - OneMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    Will tea party members back Rauner only because they like Quinn even less or will they just sit the election out?

    As the ads begin to appear that make Rauner look like the devil for union members it is going to push a lot of the tea party types to him. Not sure if that is going to be all that helpful.


  7. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Thoughtful article. Good and interesting. Not completely sure I agree with every conclusion. A successful campaign often reflects back the values of the voters who have shared their views. The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature. What they have in common with Rauner is a same lack of emphasis on social issues for the most part. They tend to follow the money, tax money. Some of these niches defy the term “niche” as small groups. A lot of them are pretty big to be called a niche.


  8. - dupage dan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    Bruce Rauner - the Arthur Chu of election campaigns.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:19 am:

    Love this one, Rich.

    It’s the Rauner “Cake”

    Doesn’t want Republicans unless you are lemmings, or can be converted to Raunerites, or even better, Raunerbots bragging about voting against their better self…

    Doesn’t want conservatives or Tea Party groups overtly supporting him, as Rauner rolls out his wife, and uses his wife for “liberal” decisions like a prop. If conservative or Tea Party members are kept ignorant, and vote for Rauner, the joke is on them, as Rauner laughs at the Press.

    It’s about the ILGOP Nomination being won as the way to the Finals, not about anything GOP.

    Now can Rauner’s Crew “vote” his cake to win?

    Not without a GOTV against Quinn and the Unions.

    Raunerbots love to be duped by “Bruce”, so educating the non- lemmings will make this cake un-bake.

    That is where it is now.


  10. - Illinois taxpayer - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    The black ministers strategy is a loser. Rauner isn’t going to get a significant A-A vote. He’d be better off stopping the charade on gay marriage, so that swing voters get more comfortable with him.


  11. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    ==The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature.==

    I have no idea what “Tea Party” you are talking about but it certainly isn’t today’s Tea Party.


  12. - anon - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:29 am:

    Even the tea party people know that the southside tea party group is Rauner’s propped up group. Come on. Be honest about who is running that show. The same people who rigged the Cook County endorsement for Rauner.


  13. - Cassandra - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    I can’t help but think that Rauner is doing well in all those polls because he is Not Quinn, broadly speaking.

    But in the voting booth–will Democrats in our heavily Democratic state split their ticket. Are they that angry at Quinn? He has about four months and zillions of tax-funded program dollars to convince them to stay with him while presenting Rauner as a cruel rich guy with minimal to no understanding of how to run state government. Not sure how effective Rauner has been in combating this image so far. Does it matter? If the Not Quinn vote is strong, Rauner’s presentation may not matter. But Illinois voters have a long history of tolerance of really bad, even corrupt pols, so in the end, I predict most Democrats will stay with their guy.


  14. - Wumpus - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Illinois Tapayer, Rauner does not need 40-50% of the black vote. he needs to make a dent in the 90-95% that dems traditionally get. If that number could get down to 80-85%, even in Cook County, it’d be monumental.

    The fact that Nate Silver is predicting a win is monumental at this stage.


  15. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    === Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    ==The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature.==

    I have no idea what “Tea Party” you are talking about but it certainly isn’t today’s Tea Party.===

    Demo, the “Tea Party” is a very loose confederation of folks to say the least. At the local levels, I guess you might be stunned how many Dems are very active. It may be counter-intuitive to you, but it’s true among the DuPage County chapters. They look to be diverse in every way; politically, economically, socially, etc. They’re one firm commonality is that they are anti-tax.


  16. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:45 am:

    @A guy:

    You are right about the original Tea Party movement and maybe they have kept their identity where you live, but I would argue as a general rule they have been co-opted by a more radical right-wing sector of the Republican party.

    In any event, if Rauner can succeed at piecing together bits of different groups more power to him. It’s a tightrope walk that so far he appears to be doing ok.


  17. - Walker - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    The “all-others” strategy can work by pulling together everyone who’s against incumbents.

    The trick is not to resonate so well with their “anti” feelings that you amplify them right into no-shows at the polls.


  18. - VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 11:20 am:

    We aren’t lemmings.
    In today’s world, everyone is in a lot of niches.
    What has to be done is find the niche that supports you enough to vote for you. A voter could be in one niche regarding state finances, another on social issues, and another regarding candidate biography - you have to find the niche that has the priority over the other niches.

    What is going to get someone to get up out of their chairs, walk down to a polling booth, wait in line - then vote for you? It has to be the right niche.

    The traditional GOP niches aren’t working. So Rauner’s team is appealing to different ones, while attempting to appeal to some of the traditional ones. Good.

    Consequently, Quinn can’t just depend upon giving $54,000,000 in grant money this time. He can’t just depend upon the niches that have succeeded even when the candidate was Rod Blagojevich. Quinn can’t depend upon voters giving him a second chance for a second time. Quinn is going to have to fight for his niches, and competition is good.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    ===The traditional GOP niches aren’t working. So Rauner’s team is appealing to different ones, while attempting to appeal to some of the traditional ones. Good.===

    Raunerites are not Republicans. Bruce Rauner is a Raunerite who won the GOP Primary. You all but admit that there.

    If you are a Republican and fall for Rauner being a “niche” Republican, that speaks to Rauner not even being a Republican in the Reagan Rule sense.

    That is being a lemming, voting against your better self.


  20. - low level - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 5:10 pm:

    When Bruce went to the Southside and Westside, I just can’t help but think he brought his checkbook as well - for whatever programs the ministers are sponsoring. Just a hunch.

    And the tea partiers are ok with that? This election is weird.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* More Illinois Democrats say they won't be attending Trump inauguration
* Question of the day
* What could possibly go wrong?
* *** UPDATED x1 *** The tide shifts a bit
* Vallas says CSU will not be absorbed
* We've come a long way, baby
* Rauner won't say where he stands on "repeal and replace"
* Zombies!!!
* Treating the symptoms
* Manar wants Rauner to "personally" negotiate AFSCME contract
* And Petrella makes 8
* Candidate preview at Rainbow PUSH
* On inauguration day, a study in contrasts
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Possible Sony Xperia XA Ultra sequel benchmarked with 4GB RAM, Android 7.0
* Verizon to promo 5GB plan at $55 per month starting January 24
* Another one bites the dust: Moto 360 (2015) also exits Google Store
* Instead of calling it quits, Google could soon expand Android One initiative to the US
* Shaky source says Nokia P1 ultra-flagship based off of Sharp Aquos Xx3 design
* Samsung Display may have teased us with the Galaxy S8 in an ad
* Samsung Galaxy J2 Ace and J1 4G introduced as cheap smartphones for India

* Watch HOF announcement coverage live, 4 CT today
* Kopech hits 110 mph in offseason workout
* Hawk alarm clock headlines Sox '17 promotions
* Many forces at play in GM's Quintana plans
* Watch HOF announcement coverage live, 4 CT Wednesday
* White Sox trio among top RHP prospects
* Healthy Tilson should boost hometown White Sox

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Illinois Senate passes criminal justice reform .....
* No joy in Springfield as speaker wins 17th term.....


* EXCHANGE: Christopher mechanic waits through the slow season
* Illinois judges to be trained for in-school programs
* Obama reduces sentence of Gangster Disciples 'governor'
* Global warming could steal postcard-perfect weather days
* Long-serving Chicago Fire Department chaplain to retire
* Wicked to return to Chicago next December
* Police: 3 dead, 1 hurt following crash on Chicago expressway
* School bus rolls over in single-vehicle crash
* Lin-Manuel Miranda to play 'Hamilton' for Oscar Lopez Rivera
* Magistrate sets trial date for former Illinois congressman

* Completion of Illinois 29 widening project 'big team effort'
* Rauner recommends Vallas for Chicago State trustees chairman
* Schock trial set for mid-July in Springfield
* Manar: Rauner should personally negotiate with AFSCME
* Lead testing for schools, day cares signed into law
* Illinois governor signs school, daycare lead-testing law
* Illinois Senate vows swift action on ambitious budget plan
* Ex-Rep. Don Moffitt appointed to state Agriculture Department post

* McKesson to pay $150 million for failure to report suspicious opioid orders
* Growing list of Illinois lawmakers to skip Trump's inauguration
* Citibank makes play for customers wanting fee-free cash
* Rauner names advisory group for Chicago State
* Boeing chief exits Trump meeting with hints that jet deal is near


* Police: Multiple parked vehicles stolen on South Side
* Man shot in South Shore
* Police: 2 dead, 11 wounded in Tuesday shootings across Chicago
* Firefighter injured while battling Austin blaze
* Police: Man shot to death in Austin
* IPRA releases video from fatal November police shooting
* Dear Abby: When my kids get loud, I lose it
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Jan. 18, 2017
* 1 wounded in Lawndale shooting
* Man shot, critically wounded in Hyde Park


* 'It's inspiring': Cubs' Contreras pays visit to Advocate Children's Hospital
* Firefighter injured while battling West Side blaze
* 5-year-old girl seriously wounded after accidentally shooting herself
* Chicagoans can now take Uber carpools with pre-tax commuter benefits
* Oregon strength coach suspended after players hospitalized
* Rookies Vinnie Hinostroza and Tanner Kero each score twice in 6-4 victory
* Blackhawks' Fathers Trip 'meaningful for everybody'
* North Texas police officer killed, suspect later found dead
* Mavericks get the job done on Bulls with 99-98 victory
* Secret Service agrees to pay $24 million in decades-old race bias case brought by black agents


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Completion of Illinois 29 widening project 'big team effort'
* Rauner recommends Vallas for Chicago State trustees chairman
* Our View: Have a plan in place before repealing the Affordable Care Act
* Schock trial set for mid-July in Springfield
* Michael Gerson: Attacking Lewis showed Trump’s disregard for the American story
* Bob Gray: Police, fire costs reach 'tipping point'
* E.J. Dionne: Obama, Trump and the power of ‘we’
* Catherine Rampell: Alarms over cutting back government data
* Manar: Rauner should personally negotiate with AFSCME
* Kathleen Parker: Hosea, can you see?


* State lawmakers face competing minimum wage proposals in Senate, House
* Illinois Senate bill would add tax to sugary drinks
* The doctor is in at Scovill Zoo
* John Ruhnke
* Gloria Stewart
* Betty Rose
* Dorothy Welch
* Margaret Murphy
* James Matthew Kirkland
* Robert Wells


* Backlund scores twice in 13 seconds, Flames beat Panthers
* Hinostroza rallies Blackhawks to 6-4 win over Avalanche
* Leonard's 34 points rally Spurs past Timberwolves, 122-114
* Hoffman, Stone score twice each; Senators beat Blues 6-4
* Business group: China preparing to retaliate on trade

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Sen. Durbin on Rod Blagojevich being commu......

* Former San Bernardino County supervisor te......
* Former San Bernardino County supervisor te......

* Keeping Retirement Weird. Senator Biss’ view on pension theft seems to have changed. Activism works.
* Ella’s Song. Toshi Reagon and BIGLovely. Women’s March on Washington version.
* Could Chicago baseball fans wind up rooting for pair of Expos to make Hall?
* GOP state lawmaker calls for Blagojevich's sentence to be shortened
* GOP state lawmaker calls for Obama to shorten Blagojevich's prison sentence
* Chicago Stars Ep. 3 - The World Columbian Exposition // MBMHMC tv
* Thorner & O'Neil: Returning nation to its roots supercedes all else
* Marches for Life in Chicago and Springfield
* 89 percent of Americans say protecting religious freedom is important, new poll shows
* Obama commutes convicted military secrets leaker Chelsea Manning's sentence by 28 years


* Governor Rauner Signs Lead Testing Bill
* Governor Announces Appointments
* Illinois Targeted Violence Prevention Program Receives $187,000 U.S. Department of Homeland Security Grant - Funding will support community training and engagement programs
* Governor Rauner Announces #GovClassroomVisit
* IDoA tips for winter weather preparedness - Health hazards to be aware of during the winter months that could affect older adults




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller