SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
How many niche voters make a majority?

Monday, Jun 16, 2014

* If you Google “GTCR” and “Niche” you get about 136,000 results. That was the inspiration for my Crain’s Chicago Business column

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner leads Gov. Pat Quinn in every poll. Prognosticator Nate Silver recently gave Mr. Rauner a 75 percent chance of victory.

But since Illinois is such a traditionally Democratic state, Mr. Rauner appears to be using a lesson he learned at his former private-equity firm as a road map to victory.

Under his leadership, Chicago-based GTCR LLC specialized in buying successful “niche” companies and then using their profits and expertise to expand in their respective industries.

Mr. Rauner followed this niche approach to win the GOP nomination. He started with his big-business pals, who in the past have been divided over candidates. But this time they were all with him, including those who previously had supported his opponents.

Because he’s pro-choice, Mr. Rauner had some trouble gaining traction with tea party groups, which still have some power, at least nationwide, as U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor learned to his dismay on June 10. But a new tea party chapter popped up in January in the southwest suburbs. Mr. Rauner has used that group’s kindness, along with his backing for term limits to push state legislators out of office, to eventually make some inroads.

All of that and much more combined to help him win a narrow victory in the March 20 primary.

Mr. Rauner is using the same strategy for Nov. 4.

Click here to read the rest.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


20 Comments
  1. - William j Kelly - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:39 am:

    It doesn’t surprise me Rauner niched out a victory with the help ofRahm’s billionaires in the republican primary but Rahm’s billionaires will only hurt him in the general.


  2. - Usually Silent Observer - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    Excellent analysis of the Rauner strategy, Rich. Scary, if it works.


  3. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    I read this morning in another op-ed piece that Rauner’s firm GTCT had only one Latina, two Asian-descended people and…zero African-Americans as top executives.

    The Rauner Campaign postures with two African-Americans and a Latino in TV commercials, but in real life, few are to be found in the top reaches of a company that enriched Rauner.

    Quinn ought to make a strong play for suburban women. Women tend to be more liberal or Democratic than men. Obama creamed Romney with women in exit polls.


  4. - OneMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    Excellent analysis of the Rauner strategy, Rich. Scary, if it works.

    Guess I am missing why it is ’scarry’…

    Also G of M, nice job repeating the Quinn talking points there…


  5. - Hit or Miss - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Bruce Rauner’s campaign has featured an ad with his wife saying he “doesn’t have a social agenda”. We also know he’s pro-choice. Tea party members are big on a wide range of social issues. Will tea party members back Rauner only because they like Quinn even less or will they just sit the election out?


  6. - OneMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    Will tea party members back Rauner only because they like Quinn even less or will they just sit the election out?

    As the ads begin to appear that make Rauner look like the devil for union members it is going to push a lot of the tea party types to him. Not sure if that is going to be all that helpful.


  7. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Thoughtful article. Good and interesting. Not completely sure I agree with every conclusion. A successful campaign often reflects back the values of the voters who have shared their views. The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature. What they have in common with Rauner is a same lack of emphasis on social issues for the most part. They tend to follow the money, tax money. Some of these niches defy the term “niche” as small groups. A lot of them are pretty big to be called a niche.


  8. - dupage dan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    Bruce Rauner - the Arthur Chu of election campaigns.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:19 am:

    Love this one, Rich.

    It’s the Rauner “Cake”

    Doesn’t want Republicans unless you are lemmings, or can be converted to Raunerites, or even better, Raunerbots bragging about voting against their better self…

    Doesn’t want conservatives or Tea Party groups overtly supporting him, as Rauner rolls out his wife, and uses his wife for “liberal” decisions like a prop. If conservative or Tea Party members are kept ignorant, and vote for Rauner, the joke is on them, as Rauner laughs at the Press.

    It’s about the ILGOP Nomination being won as the way to the Finals, not about anything GOP.

    Now can Rauner’s Crew “vote” his cake to win?

    Not without a GOTV against Quinn and the Unions.

    Raunerbots love to be duped by “Bruce”, so educating the non- lemmings will make this cake un-bake.

    That is where it is now.


  10. - Illinois taxpayer - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    The black ministers strategy is a loser. Rauner isn’t going to get a significant A-A vote. He’d be better off stopping the charade on gay marriage, so that swing voters get more comfortable with him.


  11. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    ==The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature.==

    I have no idea what “Tea Party” you are talking about but it certainly isn’t today’s Tea Party.


  12. - anon - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:29 am:

    Even the tea party people know that the southside tea party group is Rauner’s propped up group. Come on. Be honest about who is running that show. The same people who rigged the Cook County endorsement for Rauner.


  13. - Cassandra - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    I can’t help but think that Rauner is doing well in all those polls because he is Not Quinn, broadly speaking.

    But in the voting booth–will Democrats in our heavily Democratic state split their ticket. Are they that angry at Quinn? He has about four months and zillions of tax-funded program dollars to convince them to stay with him while presenting Rauner as a cruel rich guy with minimal to no understanding of how to run state government. Not sure how effective Rauner has been in combating this image so far. Does it matter? If the Not Quinn vote is strong, Rauner’s presentation may not matter. But Illinois voters have a long history of tolerance of really bad, even corrupt pols, so in the end, I predict most Democrats will stay with their guy.


  14. - Wumpus - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Illinois Tapayer, Rauner does not need 40-50% of the black vote. he needs to make a dent in the 90-95% that dems traditionally get. If that number could get down to 80-85%, even in Cook County, it’d be monumental.

    The fact that Nate Silver is predicting a win is monumental at this stage.


  15. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    === Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    ==The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature.==

    I have no idea what “Tea Party” you are talking about but it certainly isn’t today’s Tea Party.===

    Demo, the “Tea Party” is a very loose confederation of folks to say the least. At the local levels, I guess you might be stunned how many Dems are very active. It may be counter-intuitive to you, but it’s true among the DuPage County chapters. They look to be diverse in every way; politically, economically, socially, etc. They’re one firm commonality is that they are anti-tax.


  16. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:45 am:

    @A guy:

    You are right about the original Tea Party movement and maybe they have kept their identity where you live, but I would argue as a general rule they have been co-opted by a more radical right-wing sector of the Republican party.

    In any event, if Rauner can succeed at piecing together bits of different groups more power to him. It’s a tightrope walk that so far he appears to be doing ok.


  17. - Walker - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    The “all-others” strategy can work by pulling together everyone who’s against incumbents.

    The trick is not to resonate so well with their “anti” feelings that you amplify them right into no-shows at the polls.


  18. - VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 11:20 am:

    We aren’t lemmings.
    In today’s world, everyone is in a lot of niches.
    What has to be done is find the niche that supports you enough to vote for you. A voter could be in one niche regarding state finances, another on social issues, and another regarding candidate biography - you have to find the niche that has the priority over the other niches.

    What is going to get someone to get up out of their chairs, walk down to a polling booth, wait in line - then vote for you? It has to be the right niche.

    The traditional GOP niches aren’t working. So Rauner’s team is appealing to different ones, while attempting to appeal to some of the traditional ones. Good.

    Consequently, Quinn can’t just depend upon giving $54,000,000 in grant money this time. He can’t just depend upon the niches that have succeeded even when the candidate was Rod Blagojevich. Quinn can’t depend upon voters giving him a second chance for a second time. Quinn is going to have to fight for his niches, and competition is good.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    ===The traditional GOP niches aren’t working. So Rauner’s team is appealing to different ones, while attempting to appeal to some of the traditional ones. Good.===

    Raunerites are not Republicans. Bruce Rauner is a Raunerite who won the GOP Primary. You all but admit that there.

    If you are a Republican and fall for Rauner being a “niche” Republican, that speaks to Rauner not even being a Republican in the Reagan Rule sense.

    That is being a lemming, voting against your better self.


  20. - low level - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 5:10 pm:

    When Bruce went to the Southside and Westside, I just can’t help but think he brought his checkbook as well - for whatever programs the ministers are sponsoring. Just a hunch.

    And the tea partiers are ok with that? This election is weird.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Kirk touts bill to refund $154K to Chicago Stock Exchange
* Tomorrow's news today
* Rauner launches new blog
* Question of the day
* Illinois Policy Institute wins Round 2 of EDR battle
* A lesson in why tougher laws don't always work
* Trump campaign blames Rauner-signed law for Chicago violence increase
* Republican candidate says he doesn't want newspaper's endorsement
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign roundup
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Rate Munger's first TV ad
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Samsung faces Chinese state TV criticism for ‘arrogant’ and ‘discriminatory’ Galaxy Note 7 recall
* Adobe Adds iPhone 7 Camera Support to Lightroom for iOS
* Samsung Galaxy A8 (2016) goes official in Korea with all-metal build, large battery
* Spotify in acquisition talks with Soundcloud
* Le Pro 3 sold out in 15 seconds, pre-orders number six-fold over LeEco prepared units
* Shazam is finally profitable after a billion downloads
* Spotify could out-dance Apple if it does acquire SoundCloud

* Quintana ends 2016 with quality start in loss
* Quintana ends 2016 with quality start in loss
* Rodon eyes continued success in opener against Twins
* Narvaez hopes for shot to start next season
* Sale to start season finale on Sunday
* Gonzalez twirls gem as Frazier's HR beats Rays
* Frazier reaches personal goal with 40th HR

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inma.....
* Serving Those Who Served - Alton Daily News..
* Skoog talks budget, Madigan, decries Dem mailer.....


* Kendall County approves $3 million courthouse, jail security
* Chicago announces new steps in possible Red Line expansion
* Ex-NBA player shows fear during testimony against gang
* Why is Chicago a murder capital? Clues from a bloody month
* Declining rattlesnake species to get federal protection
* Clinton makes it clear she knows many world leaders
* A closer look as deadline for Chicago teachers strike nears
* Harrisburg murder suspect charged with attempted kidnapping
* Illinois pays past-due utility bills for state buildings
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill

* Federal judge won't reverse ruling on Illinois voter registration
* Rauner's deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* State of Illinois caught up on CWLP bills
* Gov. Rauner's budget deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Illinois asks judge to reverse voter-registration ruling
* State: Chicago-area doctor puts cat saliva in vaccines
* Diagnosed concussions among Illinois youth up 83 percent
* Federal judge OKs improvement plan for Illinois child agency
* Audit: College of DuPage severance outpaces similar deals

* Why is Chicago a murder capital? Clues from a bloody month
* Why the $600 EpiPen costs $69 in Britain
* Harken exits Obamacare markets as UnitedHealth startup struggles
* Struggling Harken exits Obamacare markets
* Obama administration failed to follow health law, report says


* Man wanted in U of I shooting surrenders to police
* 3 dead, 8 wounded in city shootings Thursday
* Austin shooting leaves 1 wounded
* Woman wounded in Hermosa drive-by
* 1 hurt in Roseland shooting
* Dear Abby: All the voting info is a click away
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Sept. 30, 2016
* Emanuel trying to unload Michael Reese albatross
* Family of slain black man wants police to release full video
* Renteria a likely top candidate if White Sox make change


* 3 dead, 8 others wounded in city shootings
* Man wanted in Champaign shooting surrenders to police
* Asian stocks lower on renewed worries about banking sector
* Student creates prosthetic so girl born without hand can master the violin
* Sam Farmer's Week 4 NFL picks
* Jonathan Toews has big assist in Team Canada's World Cup title
* Joe Maddon defends change of routine for 'spring training' strategy
* Congress puts the U.S. in danger by overturning Obama veto
* 'Hard Brexit' looms as 28 red lines turn deeper shade of scarlet
* Once the credit-card reader to beat, VeriFone is losing its grip


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Federal judge won't reverse ruling on Illinois voter registration
* Rauner's deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Our View: You have no excuse not to vote
* Their View: More of the same from dysfunctional Congress
* Rauner, Democrat lawmakers urge passage of inmate ID bill
* State of Illinois caught up on CWLP bills
* Gov. Rauner's budget deficit projection $2.4B less than lawmakers'
* Illinois asks judge to reverse voter-registration ruling
* Bernard Schoenburg: GOP attacks DelGiorno for pension he now won't get
* Eugene Robinson: Clinton delivers a beat-down


* Decatur strikes gold with gaming machines
* Autism association hosts workshop on biomedical treatment approach
* Joan Smith
* Kasen Karnes
* Clarence Wright
* Eddith Gee
* Wade Dishinger
* C. Eugene Phillips
* Kenneth Williams
* Velma Gower


* LEADING OFF: Wild-card chases in AL and NL, rainy forecasts
* Green's big game gets Bengals settled against Dolphins
* Elgin Tower Building groundbreaking sparks memories, excitement
* Japan OKs $1.5 billion contract for new Tokyo stadium
* Girls swimming: Big gains for Barrington

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin: Trump “Bromance” With Putin Threat......

* Sen. Mark Kirk Turns Down Several Chicago ......

* Chicago baseball leadership may remain the same, regardless of ’16
* Special ‘thank you’ to these four board members
* Real Property Alliance helps consumers, REALTORS® better understand property tax system
* Did you get the October magazine yet?
* Carter urges Egyptian REALTORS® to take safety precautions to heart
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Federal Judge Approves Of Illinois DCFS Changes
* Early Voting Begins Thursday In Illinois
* Cartoon Of The Day
* GOP Group Puts Northwest Illinois House Race On Watch List


* Illinois awarded $1 million grant to pilot person-centered supportive services program - Program will help persons living with or those at high-risk of developing Alzheimer’s and related dementia
* Governor Rauner Urges Action on Bipartisan Legislation to Reduce Recidivism
* Governor Rauner Encourages Illinoisans to Receive Flu Shot
* Honoring Former President and Prime Minister of Israel - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff immediately until Sunset, Friday, September 30, 2016.
* First 2016 Human West Nile Virus Deaths in Illinois




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller