SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
How many niche voters make a majority?

Monday, Jun 16, 2014

* If you Google “GTCR” and “Niche” you get about 136,000 results. That was the inspiration for my Crain’s Chicago Business column

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner leads Gov. Pat Quinn in every poll. Prognosticator Nate Silver recently gave Mr. Rauner a 75 percent chance of victory.

But since Illinois is such a traditionally Democratic state, Mr. Rauner appears to be using a lesson he learned at his former private-equity firm as a road map to victory.

Under his leadership, Chicago-based GTCR LLC specialized in buying successful “niche” companies and then using their profits and expertise to expand in their respective industries.

Mr. Rauner followed this niche approach to win the GOP nomination. He started with his big-business pals, who in the past have been divided over candidates. But this time they were all with him, including those who previously had supported his opponents.

Because he’s pro-choice, Mr. Rauner had some trouble gaining traction with tea party groups, which still have some power, at least nationwide, as U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor learned to his dismay on June 10. But a new tea party chapter popped up in January in the southwest suburbs. Mr. Rauner has used that group’s kindness, along with his backing for term limits to push state legislators out of office, to eventually make some inroads.

All of that and much more combined to help him win a narrow victory in the March 20 primary.

Mr. Rauner is using the same strategy for Nov. 4.

Click here to read the rest.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


20 Comments
  1. - William j Kelly - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:39 am:

    It doesn’t surprise me Rauner niched out a victory with the help ofRahm’s billionaires in the republican primary but Rahm’s billionaires will only hurt him in the general.


  2. - Usually Silent Observer - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    Excellent analysis of the Rauner strategy, Rich. Scary, if it works.


  3. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    I read this morning in another op-ed piece that Rauner’s firm GTCT had only one Latina, two Asian-descended people and…zero African-Americans as top executives.

    The Rauner Campaign postures with two African-Americans and a Latino in TV commercials, but in real life, few are to be found in the top reaches of a company that enriched Rauner.

    Quinn ought to make a strong play for suburban women. Women tend to be more liberal or Democratic than men. Obama creamed Romney with women in exit polls.


  4. - OneMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    Excellent analysis of the Rauner strategy, Rich. Scary, if it works.

    Guess I am missing why it is ’scarry’…

    Also G of M, nice job repeating the Quinn talking points there…


  5. - Hit or Miss - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    Bruce Rauner’s campaign has featured an ad with his wife saying he “doesn’t have a social agenda”. We also know he’s pro-choice. Tea party members are big on a wide range of social issues. Will tea party members back Rauner only because they like Quinn even less or will they just sit the election out?


  6. - OneMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    Will tea party members back Rauner only because they like Quinn even less or will they just sit the election out?

    As the ads begin to appear that make Rauner look like the devil for union members it is going to push a lot of the tea party types to him. Not sure if that is going to be all that helpful.


  7. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Thoughtful article. Good and interesting. Not completely sure I agree with every conclusion. A successful campaign often reflects back the values of the voters who have shared their views. The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature. What they have in common with Rauner is a same lack of emphasis on social issues for the most part. They tend to follow the money, tax money. Some of these niches defy the term “niche” as small groups. A lot of them are pretty big to be called a niche.


  8. - dupage dan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    Bruce Rauner - the Arthur Chu of election campaigns.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:19 am:

    Love this one, Rich.

    It’s the Rauner “Cake”

    Doesn’t want Republicans unless you are lemmings, or can be converted to Raunerites, or even better, Raunerbots bragging about voting against their better self…

    Doesn’t want conservatives or Tea Party groups overtly supporting him, as Rauner rolls out his wife, and uses his wife for “liberal” decisions like a prop. If conservative or Tea Party members are kept ignorant, and vote for Rauner, the joke is on them, as Rauner laughs at the Press.

    It’s about the ILGOP Nomination being won as the way to the Finals, not about anything GOP.

    Now can Rauner’s Crew “vote” his cake to win?

    Not without a GOTV against Quinn and the Unions.

    Raunerbots love to be duped by “Bruce”, so educating the non- lemmings will make this cake un-bake.

    That is where it is now.


  10. - Illinois taxpayer - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:22 am:

    The black ministers strategy is a loser. Rauner isn’t going to get a significant A-A vote. He’d be better off stopping the charade on gay marriage, so that swing voters get more comfortable with him.


  11. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    ==The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature.==

    I have no idea what “Tea Party” you are talking about but it certainly isn’t today’s Tea Party.


  12. - anon - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:29 am:

    Even the tea party people know that the southside tea party group is Rauner’s propped up group. Come on. Be honest about who is running that show. The same people who rigged the Cook County endorsement for Rauner.


  13. - Cassandra - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    I can’t help but think that Rauner is doing well in all those polls because he is Not Quinn, broadly speaking.

    But in the voting booth–will Democrats in our heavily Democratic state split their ticket. Are they that angry at Quinn? He has about four months and zillions of tax-funded program dollars to convince them to stay with him while presenting Rauner as a cruel rich guy with minimal to no understanding of how to run state government. Not sure how effective Rauner has been in combating this image so far. Does it matter? If the Not Quinn vote is strong, Rauner’s presentation may not matter. But Illinois voters have a long history of tolerance of really bad, even corrupt pols, so in the end, I predict most Democrats will stay with their guy.


  14. - Wumpus - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:35 am:

    Illinois Tapayer, Rauner does not need 40-50% of the black vote. he needs to make a dent in the 90-95% that dems traditionally get. If that number could get down to 80-85%, even in Cook County, it’d be monumental.

    The fact that Nate Silver is predicting a win is monumental at this stage.


  15. - A guy... - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:38 am:

    === Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    ==The Tea Party is an interesting mix of folks including many Democrats. Their stripes are more Libertarian by nature.==

    I have no idea what “Tea Party” you are talking about but it certainly isn’t today’s Tea Party.===

    Demo, the “Tea Party” is a very loose confederation of folks to say the least. At the local levels, I guess you might be stunned how many Dems are very active. It may be counter-intuitive to you, but it’s true among the DuPage County chapters. They look to be diverse in every way; politically, economically, socially, etc. They’re one firm commonality is that they are anti-tax.


  16. - Demoralized - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:45 am:

    @A guy:

    You are right about the original Tea Party movement and maybe they have kept their identity where you live, but I would argue as a general rule they have been co-opted by a more radical right-wing sector of the Republican party.

    In any event, if Rauner can succeed at piecing together bits of different groups more power to him. It’s a tightrope walk that so far he appears to be doing ok.


  17. - Walker - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 10:50 am:

    The “all-others” strategy can work by pulling together everyone who’s against incumbents.

    The trick is not to resonate so well with their “anti” feelings that you amplify them right into no-shows at the polls.


  18. - VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 11:20 am:

    We aren’t lemmings.
    In today’s world, everyone is in a lot of niches.
    What has to be done is find the niche that supports you enough to vote for you. A voter could be in one niche regarding state finances, another on social issues, and another regarding candidate biography - you have to find the niche that has the priority over the other niches.

    What is going to get someone to get up out of their chairs, walk down to a polling booth, wait in line - then vote for you? It has to be the right niche.

    The traditional GOP niches aren’t working. So Rauner’s team is appealing to different ones, while attempting to appeal to some of the traditional ones. Good.

    Consequently, Quinn can’t just depend upon giving $54,000,000 in grant money this time. He can’t just depend upon the niches that have succeeded even when the candidate was Rod Blagojevich. Quinn can’t depend upon voters giving him a second chance for a second time. Quinn is going to have to fight for his niches, and competition is good.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    ===The traditional GOP niches aren’t working. So Rauner’s team is appealing to different ones, while attempting to appeal to some of the traditional ones. Good.===

    Raunerites are not Republicans. Bruce Rauner is a Raunerite who won the GOP Primary. You all but admit that there.

    If you are a Republican and fall for Rauner being a “niche” Republican, that speaks to Rauner not even being a Republican in the Reagan Rule sense.

    That is being a lemming, voting against your better self.


  20. - low level - Monday, Jun 16, 14 @ 5:10 pm:

    When Bruce went to the Southside and Westside, I just can’t help but think he brought his checkbook as well - for whatever programs the ministers are sponsoring. Just a hunch.

    And the tea partiers are ok with that? This election is weird.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* In which I agree with the governor
* Stuff you may not know about Illinois pensions
* It's just a bill
* Question of the day
* AG Madigan wants expansion of hate crime law
* Déjà vu all over again
* Rauner defends grand bargain parameters
* "We are proud to call him one of our own"
* Springfield holds its collective breath as strike talk mounts, budget impasse continues
* *** LIVE *** House session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* The Sunday Spin: Politics with Rick Pearson Ful.....
* Democratic State Sen. Daniel Biss Inches Toward.....
* Rauner’s office: Gov spends 55% of Illinois nig.....
* Jim Dey: Thinking ahead, Ammons endorses Prussing..
* Highest pay in nation not good enough for Illin.....


* Father of dead Navy SEAL refused to meet Trump at ceremony
* 2 young girls found dead after Chicago house fire
* Lawyer for ex-Rep. Jackson seeks shorter supervision period
* Urbana man who killed son pleads guilty to 2nd-degree murder
* School seminar near Chicago sparks civil rights, race debate
* 3rd suspect in shooting death of Chicago toddler denied bail
* Illinois man charged in Iowa killing of girl has trial moved
* Illinois man charged in Iowa killing of girl has trial moved
* EXCHANGE: Building renovator digs up 100 years of history
* EXCHANGE: Technology adds extra dimension to seniors' lives

* Sanctuary issue draws dueling demonstrations to Capitol
* Rauner's office: Gov spends 55% of Illinois nights at Mansion
* Report: State senator's law firm dealings under scrutiny
* Durbin wants open look at Russian involvement in election
* Trump puts moderate GOP governors in awkward spot
* Economic stakes high for Springfield in labor showdown
* AFSCME authorizes strike, but still wants to bargain with Rauner
* AFSCME members authorize leaders to call strike
* Madigan forms Illinois House panel to address school funding
* Ex-U.S. Rep. Jackson gets about $138,400 in annual benefits

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* For Chicago museums, it pays to be on public land
* Exelon hunts more state nuke subsidies following Illinois win
* Let's pass a law: No Illinois budget, no one gets re-elected
* After Seaway, what a true community bank looks like


* Police: Man burglarized Gold Coast apartment as woman slept
* Joseph Wapner of “The People’s Court” dies at 97
* Man shot to death in North Lawndale
* CPD Supt. Eddie Johnson still waiting on state crime bill
* Monday letters: Better transit can carry people out of poverty
* Person killed in Gary crash
* Driver crashes while fleeing police in West Chicago
* Police warn of robberies at West Side bus stops
* More aggressive Trevor van Riemsdyk chipping in offensively
* Carlos Rodon continues at slow, steady pace


* Police say drunk driver caused Mardi Gras crash that hurt 28
* New DNC leader vows united Democrats will be Trump's nightmare
* Building owner devastated by deaths of 2 young relatives in fire
* Son says "The People's Court" Judge Joseph Wapner has died
* Illinois man charged in Iowa killing of girl has trial moved
* Joe Maddon's TV appearance curbed by scheduling conflict
* Will 'La La' have another day of sun at Sunday's Oscars?
* White House: Too early to say whether a special prosecutor should look into apparent election meddling by Russia
* 1 dead, 7 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Bill Paxton, 'Titanic' and 'Big Love' star, dead at 61


» Chicagoans Rally To Support Trans Rights After Trump Rescinds Student Protections
» Rauner Has Plan To Keep Government Running In Case Of Strike
» Congressman Rush Declares His Offices As Sanctuaries
» Weekend Funerals For Young Victims Of Chicago Violence
» CPS Relents, Returns $15 Million to Poorest Chicago Schools
» Doctors Discuss Alternatives To Opioids For Pain
» State Week: Will AFSCME Strike?
» Illinois Lawmakers: NEIU Student Workers Can Only Keep Jobs If State Passes Budget
» Civil Rights Investigation Into Cicero Schools Not Its First
» Indivisible Illinois Activists Concerned About Bobby Rush's Absence From Congress


* Sanctuary issue draws dueling demonstrations to Capitol
* Angie Muhs: It's time to name another Reader Advisory Board
* Bernard Schoenburg: Duckworth names 'thoughtful' former boss to downstate post
* Statehouse Insider: It's not the money, it's the appearance
* Our View: It's time for penance at the Capitol
* Rauner's office: Gov spends 55% of Illinois nights at Mansion
* Community Foundation: Sister's legacy lives on through scholarship fund
* Report: State senator's law firm dealings under scrutiny
* Durbin wants open look at Russian involvement in election
* Charles Krauthammer: Trump and the ‘Madman Theory’


* ENGAGEMENT
* ANNIVERSARY
* IHSA State Swim Finals
* South Peoria a true gem of beauty and worth
* Three Rockford teachers vie for seats on City Council
* Divorces
* Meet the Q-C's 'Fixer Uppers:' Couple transforms homes from shabby to chic
* Out & About: Mitchell Kay's birthday party
* Historic St. Louis residence a house on wheels Sunday
* Power back on for United Way event


* Italy's Pisa plans to test appeal of towering Ferris wheel
* Authorities shooting deaths of 2 was murder-suicide
* Heat center Willie Reed has bursitis, out for Monday
* Turner leads Notre Dame past Florida State for ACC title
* No. 2 Maryland tops Minnesota 93-60 to clinch 1st place tie

* Hultgren criticizes immigration ban, Roska...
* Protesters Demand Town Hall Meetings From ...
* Majority of IL Congressional Delegation Op...
* Group upset with Trump wants Town Hall mee...
* US Congressman tours new Aurora Specialty ...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren talks veterans' iss...
* Protesters converge on US Rep. Randy Hultg...
* GOP congressman appears to distance himsel...
* US Representative Randy Hultgren visits ne...
* Hultgren to join veterans' forum at Geneva...

* Political math is not economic math - Wash......
* Durbin wants open look at Russian involvem......

* Senator Duckworth discusses infrastructure......

* Maryville East Coming Down Quickly
* #LibertysPromise
* The Democratic establishment.
* 81% of AFSCME Illinois state workers vote for strike authorization.
* Reading and slave insurrection.
* You’re not welcome here.
* Mem Fox’s read-aloud commandments.
* A win for Illinois special education students. We’re not done yet. Contact your Illinois legislators now.
* Oscar Sunday.
* The Bradley Sisters


* Governor Bruce Rauner Honors Carnegie Hero From Buffalo Grove
* Governor Addresses State Board of Education to Emphasize Importance of Strong Accountability Standards
* Stars and Legends to Perform at 2017 Illinois State Fair - First Round of Grandstand Headliners Announced for Springfield Fair
* Earthquake Education Kiosk Unveiled at University Mall in Carbondale - IEMA, Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium project will help southern Illinois residents reduce damage, injuries from earthquakes
* Governor Takes Bill Action

  
* Major U.S. carriers confirm LG G6 availability this spring
* The whole world is officially invited to witness the March 29 Galaxy S8 ‘Unpacking’ in NYC
* Watch Samsung’s first teaser for the Galaxy S8 launching in March
* Samsung’s Galaxy S8 debuting in New York City on March 29 at Unpacked event
* Samsung unveils a new Oculus-powered Gear VR headset with controller
* Android Wear 2.0 coming to ASUS ZenWatch 2 and 3 in Q2
* Samsung is taking audio seriously with AKG by HARMAN partnership

* Collins, Moncada make Sox debuts in Cactus opener
* Fulmer looks to keep learning throughout spring
* Fulmer's strong start highlights Cactus opener
* Fulmer's strong start highlights Cactus opener
* White Sox trio nursing injuries as spring play begins
* Quintana eager to face USA, teammates in Classic
* Buehrle 'blown away' by having number retired


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller