SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
False equivalence taken too far

Monday, Jul 28, 2014

* The AP’s Chicago bureau claims that both gubernatorial candidates “are playing a little fast and loose” with budget numbers. But so is the AP

Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January then be scaled back over four years to 3 percent.

Except Rauner has also said he’s open to raising the rate after January’s scheduled drop. No mention of that in the piece.

…Adding… This commenter accurately points to yet another big problem with the AP story

“Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January”

“rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports”

That is–at present–the plan for Quinn, too. Quinn signed the sunsetting increase into law and signed a budget that includes that drop.

Exactly. Rolling the rate back to 3.75 percent come January 1st isn’t “Rauner’s plan,” it’s current state law.

The AP’s Chicago bureau does a horrible job with state government. They need to let Springfield’s top-notch bureau carry the load.

* And this appears to have been added to make the story look more “even-handed”

Quinn overstates the revenue drop under Rauner’s plan — at least to start.

A report from the non-partisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability says rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports, would reduce revenues by almost $5 billion for the budget year that begins in July 2015 — not $8.5 billion. Rauner says his sales tax plan would generate another roughly $600 million, bringing the total revenue loss to about $4.4 billion. This year’s entire general fund budget is $35.7 billion.

The larger drop in revenue would come later, when the rates would be lowered to pre-2011 levels.

The number the Quinn campaign is using is accurate because they’ve never said it was the immediate impact.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


11 Comments
  1. - Jimmy - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Obviously, getting revenue projections correct in light of Kanerva v. Weems is critical so we know just how big a problem the state has in dealing with its debt. The recent Illinois Supreme Court decision has generated a lot of concern on the revenues needed to pay state and local governments’ retiree obligations - and this may be a good thing for non-traditional revenue ideas. New or not-so-new revenue ideas in Illinois may be a lot more feasible now, post-Karnerva v. Weems, to avoid additional tax increases and draconian cuts to spending. In light of Karnerva, I’m thinking that significant gaming expansion and marijuana legalization should get a closer look by Illinois’ legislature in the very near future.

    Having 5-6 casinos in downtown Chicago and legal pot sales would generate of lot of revenue, something big business, unions and public sector retirees could all get behind (unlike a financial services transaction tax) to avert a financial disaster. Would it be enough to pay all the debt? Probably not. Would it be enough to prevent the tax increases and cuts from causing real estate prices to drop and panic voters? Maybe. Do either of the candidates have the guts to make this argument? Probably not…

    I think Rauner - maybe more so than Quinn - may be thinking outside the box and seeing this angle. He just won’t articulate it until after the election.

    I think it would be great if the two candidates could focus on new revenue ideas for the State instead of arguing over how much they want to extract from traditional revenue sources.


  2. - Chris - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:48 am:

    “Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January”

    “rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports”

    That is–at present–the plan for Quinn, too. Quinn signed the sunsetting increase into law and signed a budget that includes that drop.

    Saying “I don’t support the bill that I signed” is trying to have it both ways. Pat Quinn owns the entire situation with the SIT rate change.


  3. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    This is now the part of the campaign that makes people crazy- arguing over numbers, which numbers are more accurate, which numbers reflect leadership or incompetence.

    Numbers are a code for trust, i.e., you can trust me more than you can trust him- to handle the money, to make the right decisions, to not be a crook.


  4. - Makandadawg - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    Rich, thanks for keeping an eye on AP. Their stories get reprinted all over Illinois with little vetting by the outlets. The Devil is in the details as we get closer to the election.


  5. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 1:07 pm:

    AP does this a lot. You’re right that John O’Connor and the others in Springfield do a great job but the Chicago folks are completely clueless. ARGH.


  6. - Soccermom - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    I think that campaigns and electeds sometimes cynically take stories to the Chicago bureau that they know the Springfield folks would never swallow. But I don’t know why the Springfield bureau is not running a correction this morning.


  7. - Anon - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    At least the AP makes it clear that Rauner would face a huge hole in his first budget that his service taxes wouldn’t come close to patching.


  8. - Dirty Red - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:51 pm:

    People who major in journalism to get away from doing math probably should not be writing stories about state finances.


  9. - walker - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Numbers are correct or wrong, given the same assumptions. In this case the AP is reporting the Republican spin more than checking the arithmetic for accuracy.

    In fact in the short term, there’s little discernable difference between Rauner and Quinn, except that Quinn has already provided more details and presented a plan that matches the numbers — which didn’t get GA support.


  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:29 pm:

    @Rich -

    The AP story looks more to me like some quick revisionism by the Rauner Crew to walk back Rauner’s plan.

    Rauner was clearly hoping people would see his wink-wink on the 3.75% tax rate and keep walking.

    He clearly is begging Democrats to strike a deal to raise the rate back to 5%.

    No. Chance.

    Especially not now that he says his plan is to lead efforts to put Radogno and Durkin in charge.

    If there is going to be a tax hike, he is going to have to propose it, in his budget address, and Radogno and Durkin and their top budget leaders are all going to have to lead the charge.


  11. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 7:05 am:

    ===looks more to me like some quick revisionism by the Rauner Crew to walk back===

    Nah. Just lazy reporting.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* HFS to reimburse all Medicaid providers that treat children
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Nailed it
* *** UPDATED x1 - Cullerton: "Nope" *** "Sincerely, Bruce"
* The "puppetmaster"
* Question of the day
* A few bits of common sense
* This Just In: Exelon Profits Up 22.2 Percent in 2nd Quarter
* Casino company acquires video gaming operator
* Yes, there are plenty of people to replace Kirk
* Mansion roof to be fixed
* The trend is not our friend
* *** UPDATED x1 - "Willful misreading" *** Duckworth: "I screwed up"
* Rate IllinoisGO's new online ad
* Because... Madigan
* Today's number: 76 percent
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * More details surface on Samsung’s upcoming Galaxy Note 5, no expandable storage included
        * Xiaomi Redmi Note 2 could be coming as soon as August 16
        * Sony’s stock-ish Android experiment is something every OEM should try
        * Pocket launches Beta Channel to bring you more relevant content
        * Talk Android Weekly Recap: July 24 – August 1, 2015
        * Samsung Galaxy Note 5 and S6 Edge Plus press renders leaked
        * Sony Xperia C5 Ultra and Xperia M5 leaked in full glory

        * Resurgent White Sox call on Samardzija vs. Yankees
        * White Sox get back on track against Yankees
        * Vintage Danks defuses Yankees
        * Avi sails! Garcia robs another homer
        * White Sox 8, Yankees 2: Answering a rout with a rout
        * White Sox get back on track against Yankees
        * Samardzija remains focused post-Deadline

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Chicago man charged with stealing suitcase containing wigs
        * Rockford man convicted of murder in road-rage killing
        * Illinois lawmakers evade pressure to buckle on budget
        * Chicago preliminary budget estimate shows huge shortfall
        * Indiana nears agreement on public-private rail partnership
        * Hastert closes PAC, moves $10,000 to defense fund
        * Search continues for Illinois woman in Lake Michigan
        * Rockford hotel plan pins hopes on Chinese investors
        * No FBI cold-case inquiry for missing civil rights pioneer
        * Work begins on U of Illinois solar farm

        * Statehouse Insider: What took them so long?
        * Executive Mansion to get new roof; fundraising event coming up
        * Blagojevich attorney says he'll ask full court for rehearing
        * Executive Mansion to get roof replaced for $493K
        * Illinois' health insurance co-op among those struggling
        * Court ruling helps some child care providers amid ongoing state budget impasse
        * Rauner, AFSCME reach another contract extension; governor vetoes bill to prohibit strike, lockout
        * Court ruling helps some child care providers
        * Private employers now can give hiring preference to veterans after Rauner signs law
        * Private employers now can give hiring preference to veterans

        * This old artifact is brought to you by new money
        * Northwestern's $560 million man
        * For Navteq, a sale to its customers might be the route to success
        * Social services caught up in Rauner, Madigan fight
        * How one of Chicago's pension funds fell short


          * Shootings leave at least 5 hurt
          * Lollapalooza 2015 day two: Metallica finds its box of fury
          * Toddler girl falls from window on South Side
          * Paul pushes 'economic freedom zones' at campaign stop in Niles
          * 2nd man charged in Memorial Day weekend slaying in Humboldt Park
          * Cops: Man stole suitcase with $68,000 worth of wigs from O'Hare Airport
          * Woman charged in 2014 beating death in Little Village
          * Recovery team continues search for Carol Stream woman
          * Firefighter hospitalized following South Side fire


          * Statehouse Insider: What took them so long?
          * Statehouse Insider: What took them so long?
          * Angie Muhs: Diverse views and healthy dialogue
          * Our Opinion: Don't sit on the sidelines of government
          * House Speaker Michael Madigan: Solving Illinois' crisis requires coming together in moderation
          * David Gerlach: Lincoln College ready to serve students
          * Charles Krauthammer: Among the ruins, a case of righteousness
          * Executive Mansion to get new roof; fundraising event coming up
          * Blagojevich attorney says he'll ask full court for rehearing
          * E.J. Dionne: The price Boehner pays


          * Best of Fred: No. 1A: Not enough time
          * Best of Fred: No. 1 — Another kind of writing
          * College hoops extra: Nunn enjoying good health
          * Area athletes in pro baseball: Ex-Illini pitchers struggle
          * Swedes, Giflats advances in E.I. Baseball tourney
          * Sunday Conversation: Big Ten football coaches
          * Tate: Delany can't fix Big Ten football issue
          * Illini legends, lists and lore: Tony Pashos
          * CC Fair Tractor Pull 2015
          * Man arrested for having stun gun in car


          * Duckworth whistle-blowing hearing collides with campaign
          * Impact beat NYCFC 3-2 in Frank Lampard's MLS debut
          * At 93, TV producer Lear seeks to keep pushing boundaries
          * More on line, more on mobile: advertising executive to IOC
          * 49ers deal with loose sod in Levi's Stadium on first day

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Durbin says newly passed transportation bi......

          * Top GOP fundraiser questions Illinois sena......

          * Location Location Location
          * Line Dancing & Pocahontas For National Night Out
          * The [Tuesday] Papers
          * The Beachwood Radio Sports Hour #62: Neither A Buyer Nor A Seller Be
          * Flix of Fury presents "The Sensei"
          * The Weekend Desk Report
          * '58 Corvette
          * DUI Strike Force Out In 19th District Tonight
          * A New Way To Brown Bag It
          * Who sits where -- I can't believe it's already August edition


          * Governor Announces Appointments
          * Parents Encouraged to Include Emergency Preparedness in Back-to-School Plans - August is School and Campus Preparedness Month in Illinois
          * Governor Takes Bill Action
          * Safety Belt Use in Illinois Reaches 95.2 Percent - Drivers and front seat passengers are buckling up more than ever before in Illinois
          * IDOT Seeks Ownership of Arsenal Road in Will County - Walter Strawn Hearing Request Withdrawn, Work on Long-Term Solutions Continues




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller