SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
False equivalence taken too far

Monday, Jul 28, 2014

* The AP’s Chicago bureau claims that both gubernatorial candidates “are playing a little fast and loose” with budget numbers. But so is the AP

Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January then be scaled back over four years to 3 percent.

Except Rauner has also said he’s open to raising the rate after January’s scheduled drop. No mention of that in the piece.

…Adding… This commenter accurately points to yet another big problem with the AP story

“Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January”

“rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports”

That is–at present–the plan for Quinn, too. Quinn signed the sunsetting increase into law and signed a budget that includes that drop.

Exactly. Rolling the rate back to 3.75 percent come January 1st isn’t “Rauner’s plan,” it’s current state law.

The AP’s Chicago bureau does a horrible job with state government. They need to let Springfield’s top-notch bureau carry the load.

* And this appears to have been added to make the story look more “even-handed”

Quinn overstates the revenue drop under Rauner’s plan — at least to start.

A report from the non-partisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability says rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports, would reduce revenues by almost $5 billion for the budget year that begins in July 2015 — not $8.5 billion. Rauner says his sales tax plan would generate another roughly $600 million, bringing the total revenue loss to about $4.4 billion. This year’s entire general fund budget is $35.7 billion.

The larger drop in revenue would come later, when the rates would be lowered to pre-2011 levels.

The number the Quinn campaign is using is accurate because they’ve never said it was the immediate impact.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Jimmy - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Obviously, getting revenue projections correct in light of Kanerva v. Weems is critical so we know just how big a problem the state has in dealing with its debt. The recent Illinois Supreme Court decision has generated a lot of concern on the revenues needed to pay state and local governments’ retiree obligations - and this may be a good thing for non-traditional revenue ideas. New or not-so-new revenue ideas in Illinois may be a lot more feasible now, post-Karnerva v. Weems, to avoid additional tax increases and draconian cuts to spending. In light of Karnerva, I’m thinking that significant gaming expansion and marijuana legalization should get a closer look by Illinois’ legislature in the very near future.

    Having 5-6 casinos in downtown Chicago and legal pot sales would generate of lot of revenue, something big business, unions and public sector retirees could all get behind (unlike a financial services transaction tax) to avert a financial disaster. Would it be enough to pay all the debt? Probably not. Would it be enough to prevent the tax increases and cuts from causing real estate prices to drop and panic voters? Maybe. Do either of the candidates have the guts to make this argument? Probably not…

    I think Rauner - maybe more so than Quinn - may be thinking outside the box and seeing this angle. He just won’t articulate it until after the election.

    I think it would be great if the two candidates could focus on new revenue ideas for the State instead of arguing over how much they want to extract from traditional revenue sources.

  2. - Chris - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:48 am:

    “Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January”

    “rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports”

    That is–at present–the plan for Quinn, too. Quinn signed the sunsetting increase into law and signed a budget that includes that drop.

    Saying “I don’t support the bill that I signed” is trying to have it both ways. Pat Quinn owns the entire situation with the SIT rate change.

  3. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    This is now the part of the campaign that makes people crazy- arguing over numbers, which numbers are more accurate, which numbers reflect leadership or incompetence.

    Numbers are a code for trust, i.e., you can trust me more than you can trust him- to handle the money, to make the right decisions, to not be a crook.

  4. - Makandadawg - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    Rich, thanks for keeping an eye on AP. Their stories get reprinted all over Illinois with little vetting by the outlets. The Devil is in the details as we get closer to the election.

  5. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 1:07 pm:

    AP does this a lot. You’re right that John O’Connor and the others in Springfield do a great job but the Chicago folks are completely clueless. ARGH.

  6. - Soccermom - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    I think that campaigns and electeds sometimes cynically take stories to the Chicago bureau that they know the Springfield folks would never swallow. But I don’t know why the Springfield bureau is not running a correction this morning.

  7. - Anon - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    At least the AP makes it clear that Rauner would face a huge hole in his first budget that his service taxes wouldn’t come close to patching.

  8. - Dirty Red - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:51 pm:

    People who major in journalism to get away from doing math probably should not be writing stories about state finances.

  9. - walker - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Numbers are correct or wrong, given the same assumptions. In this case the AP is reporting the Republican spin more than checking the arithmetic for accuracy.

    In fact in the short term, there’s little discernable difference between Rauner and Quinn, except that Quinn has already provided more details and presented a plan that matches the numbers — which didn’t get GA support.

  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:29 pm:

    @Rich -

    The AP story looks more to me like some quick revisionism by the Rauner Crew to walk back Rauner’s plan.

    Rauner was clearly hoping people would see his wink-wink on the 3.75% tax rate and keep walking.

    He clearly is begging Democrats to strike a deal to raise the rate back to 5%.

    No. Chance.

    Especially not now that he says his plan is to lead efforts to put Radogno and Durkin in charge.

    If there is going to be a tax hike, he is going to have to propose it, in his budget address, and Radogno and Durkin and their top budget leaders are all going to have to lead the charge.

  11. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 7:05 am:

    ===looks more to me like some quick revisionism by the Rauner Crew to walk back===

    Nah. Just lazy reporting.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Dold demanded DCCC ad linking him to Trump be taken off the air
* Rauner handing out bonuses to non-union employees
* Miles away and worlds apart
* Question of the day
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Everybody wants to get into the act
* The opposite of slick
* The Trib's closing argument: It's all about Madigan
* The expectations game
* Did Rauner kick a big can?
* More unintended consequences?
* From 23 down to 0
* Hey, Cub fans!
* An amateur nails it
* It can always get worse
* Republicans dispute Trib numbers, say Madigan doing better than realized
* Trump not cooperating with Rauner's best laid plans
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* This just in... $12 million contribution to Leader Durkin, $2 million to Munger
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...






Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Google Pixel Unboxing: A lot of hype, a lot of box
* Samsung Galaxy S8 delays due to Note 7, Google Pixel story & more – Pocketnow Daily
* Google Pixel water resistance tested for an hour
* Google Maps Adds Food Delivery Support in New Update
* Android Pays joins up with Visa and Mastercard to make online checkouts easier
* Twitter’s sales team is taking a hit in big upcoming layoffs
* Apple Replaces Support Profiles With New Tool That Only Shows Devices Signed Into Your Apple ID

* White Sox developing promising OF prospects
* Podcast: 2016 White Sox Outfield Review
* mikecws91's Offseason Plan
* The ten best developments of the 2016 White Sox season
* KenWo4LiFe's off-season plan
* Getz to oversee White Sox Minor Leagues
* Getz to oversee White Sox Minor Leagues


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....
* Ohio, Illinois governors place bets over Cubs-I.....

* Protesters set up camp in project's path for the 1st time
* Recording '59 JFK speech to be played in Illinois theater
* Want to see World Series at Wrigley? It will cost thousands
* Authorities: Skydiver dies after hitting sign in Illinois
* Sentencing date set for ex-Chicago schools superintendent
* Excerpts from recent editorials in newspapers in Illinois.
* Driver who fled Milwaukee crash that killed 3 surrenders
* Trial delayed for Chicago woman accused of giving niece gun
* Obama's library materials to travel from capital to Illinois
* Obama's library materials to travel from capital to Illinois

* Feds end lease with Illinois for state park, citing neglect
* Statehouse Insider: Tomorrow's a new day; in Illinois, that may not be good
* Cook County lawyer who posed as judge criminally charged
* 1,100 non-union state workers getting $3,016 bonuses
* Springfield veteran honored for volunteer work
* Central Illinois soldier killed in Afghanistan
* Rauner administration awarding more than $3 million in bonuses to non-union workers
* SIU injury-prevention program reinstated through stopgap budget
* Survey: 386 state jobs could relocate to Springfield
* SIU injury-prevention program reinstated through state's stopgap spending plan

* Lions and Cubs and angry aldermen, oh my
* Emanuel taps United exec as new McPier chairman
* Ready for sticker shock? Obamacare prices revealed
* Banks challenge Venmo with new payments network
* Cubs give city a star turn. Don't blow it, Chicago.

* Obama helping Democrats in close Senate, House races
* Dear Abby: Should I report a baby with bruises?
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Oct. 25, 2016
* Cubs, Indians ride home runs more in playoffs
* Fantasy Fools: Nothing goes as expected — as usual
* Obama reads mean tweets on Jimmy Kimmel show
* Doctor listings often wrong in Medicare advantage directory
* High lead found in 24 percent of Chicago Park District fountains
* Kris Versteeg scores shootout winner as Hawks fall
* Teen charged after rash of west suburban burglaries

* 16-year-old killed, 9 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Authorities: No sign of braking by bus driver in Calif. bus crash that left 13 dead, 31 injured
* Authorities: Skydiver dies after hitting sign in LaSalle County
* Elizabeth Warren to Donald Trump: 'Nasty women vote'
* Kyle Schwarber appears likely to be included on Cubs' World Series roster
* More than 50 killed as militants attack police academy in Pakistan
* Which Chicago-area singers survived 1st knockout round on 'The Voice?'
* Clear as day, Jay Cutler again the Bears starting QB
* New-look Bulls to start season with open roster spot
* Rick Sutcliffe glows about Cubs prospect Dylan Cease

The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.

* Our Opinion: Endorsing Bourne, DelGiorno for the Illinois House
* Kathleen Parker: You can dress him up, but Trump is Trump
* Our Opinion: Leslie Munger endorsed for Illinois comptroller
* Feds end lease with Illinois for state park, citing neglect
* Our Opinion: With poor choices, Clinton gets nod for president
* Statehouse Insider: Tomorrow's a new day; in Illinois, that may not be good
* Bernard Schoenburg: DelGiorno apologizes for backer's vulgar Facebook post
* Cooler temperatures lead to greater needs
* Women for Women tops half million mark
* Cook County lawyer who posed as judge criminally charged

* WHERE THEY STAND: gun control
* Area first-round playoff football times finalized
* Area prep statistics: Girls' tennis (Oct. 25)
* Urbana volleyball survives regional opener
* N-G Top 10: Football, Week 10
* Regional volleyball roundup: Chargers open with win
* Area prep statistics: Girls' swimming and diving (Oct. 25)
* UI roundup: Volleyball remains in Top 25
* Fourth and long: What's next for Vaughn?
* Tate: Cubs look set for great present, future

* Girls volleyball scoreboard: Monday, Oct. 24 results
* Chicago Blackhawks fail to douse Flames
* Patriots rolling as they prepare for Round 2 against Bills
* Hong Kong court sees chilling video describing torture
* Anderson, Booker ignite Broncos in 27-9 over Texans

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Ohio, Illinois politicians make friendly w......
* US Senator and Senate candidate visit SIUC......
* U.S. Senator and Senate candidate visit SI......

* Race between Duckworth, Kirk key to determ......
* Senators from Illinois, Ohio bet case of b......
* Ohio, Illinois politicians make friendly w......

* Code Red
* The goat, vs. Rocky Colavito
* Chicago #Cubs championship history #postseason
* Go #Cubs go #flythew #postseason
* Crain's: Is Chicago about to lose another black-owned bank?
* Announcements
* Last Menetti-Owned Building In Uptown Sold
* Cartoon of the Day - 10/24/16 Cubs win
* Cartoon Of The Day
* Auto Problems Top American Consumer Complaint List; Groups Warn Of Fast-Growing Imposter Scams

* Governor’s Children’s Cabinet Makes Lead Poisoning Prevention A Priority - October 23-30, 2016 - National Lead Poisoning Prevention Week
* Illinois EPA Sponsors Interactive Environmental Education Event with Riverton Elementary School - Riverton Third and Fourth Graders “Dive In!” to Celebrate the Environment
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Honors Veteran Mr. George Pempek
* Illinois Partners with State of Telangana, India to Strengthen Smart State Initiatives - State to state agreement to accelerate opportunities and service to citizens
* Illinois EPA Announces Vehicle Emissions Testing Network Updates - New Contract to Offer More Efficient, Less Expensive Tests

      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller