Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » False equivalence taken too far
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
False equivalence taken too far

Monday, Jul 28, 2014

* The AP’s Chicago bureau claims that both gubernatorial candidates “are playing a little fast and loose” with budget numbers. But so is the AP

Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January then be scaled back over four years to 3 percent.

Except Rauner has also said he’s open to raising the rate after January’s scheduled drop. No mention of that in the piece.

…Adding… This commenter accurately points to yet another big problem with the AP story

“Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January”

“rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports”

That is–at present–the plan for Quinn, too. Quinn signed the sunsetting increase into law and signed a budget that includes that drop.

Exactly. Rolling the rate back to 3.75 percent come January 1st isn’t “Rauner’s plan,” it’s current state law.

The AP’s Chicago bureau does a horrible job with state government. They need to let Springfield’s top-notch bureau carry the load.

* And this appears to have been added to make the story look more “even-handed”

Quinn overstates the revenue drop under Rauner’s plan — at least to start.

A report from the non-partisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability says rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports, would reduce revenues by almost $5 billion for the budget year that begins in July 2015 — not $8.5 billion. Rauner says his sales tax plan would generate another roughly $600 million, bringing the total revenue loss to about $4.4 billion. This year’s entire general fund budget is $35.7 billion.

The larger drop in revenue would come later, when the rates would be lowered to pre-2011 levels.

The number the Quinn campaign is using is accurate because they’ve never said it was the immediate impact.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

11 Comments
  1. - Jimmy - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Obviously, getting revenue projections correct in light of Kanerva v. Weems is critical so we know just how big a problem the state has in dealing with its debt. The recent Illinois Supreme Court decision has generated a lot of concern on the revenues needed to pay state and local governments’ retiree obligations - and this may be a good thing for non-traditional revenue ideas. New or not-so-new revenue ideas in Illinois may be a lot more feasible now, post-Karnerva v. Weems, to avoid additional tax increases and draconian cuts to spending. In light of Karnerva, I’m thinking that significant gaming expansion and marijuana legalization should get a closer look by Illinois’ legislature in the very near future.

    Having 5-6 casinos in downtown Chicago and legal pot sales would generate of lot of revenue, something big business, unions and public sector retirees could all get behind (unlike a financial services transaction tax) to avert a financial disaster. Would it be enough to pay all the debt? Probably not. Would it be enough to prevent the tax increases and cuts from causing real estate prices to drop and panic voters? Maybe. Do either of the candidates have the guts to make this argument? Probably not…

    I think Rauner - maybe more so than Quinn - may be thinking outside the box and seeing this angle. He just won’t articulate it until after the election.

    I think it would be great if the two candidates could focus on new revenue ideas for the State instead of arguing over how much they want to extract from traditional revenue sources.


  2. - Chris - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:48 am:

    “Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January”

    “rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports”

    That is–at present–the plan for Quinn, too. Quinn signed the sunsetting increase into law and signed a budget that includes that drop.

    Saying “I don’t support the bill that I signed” is trying to have it both ways. Pat Quinn owns the entire situation with the SIT rate change.


  3. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    This is now the part of the campaign that makes people crazy- arguing over numbers, which numbers are more accurate, which numbers reflect leadership or incompetence.

    Numbers are a code for trust, i.e., you can trust me more than you can trust him- to handle the money, to make the right decisions, to not be a crook.


  4. - Makandadawg - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    Rich, thanks for keeping an eye on AP. Their stories get reprinted all over Illinois with little vetting by the outlets. The Devil is in the details as we get closer to the election.


  5. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 1:07 pm:

    AP does this a lot. You’re right that John O’Connor and the others in Springfield do a great job but the Chicago folks are completely clueless. ARGH.


  6. - Soccermom - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    I think that campaigns and electeds sometimes cynically take stories to the Chicago bureau that they know the Springfield folks would never swallow. But I don’t know why the Springfield bureau is not running a correction this morning.


  7. - Anon - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    At least the AP makes it clear that Rauner would face a huge hole in his first budget that his service taxes wouldn’t come close to patching.


  8. - Dirty Red - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:51 pm:

    People who major in journalism to get away from doing math probably should not be writing stories about state finances.


  9. - walker - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Numbers are correct or wrong, given the same assumptions. In this case the AP is reporting the Republican spin more than checking the arithmetic for accuracy.

    In fact in the short term, there’s little discernable difference between Rauner and Quinn, except that Quinn has already provided more details and presented a plan that matches the numbers — which didn’t get GA support.


  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:29 pm:

    @Rich -

    The AP story looks more to me like some quick revisionism by the Rauner Crew to walk back Rauner’s plan.

    Rauner was clearly hoping people would see his wink-wink on the 3.75% tax rate and keep walking.

    He clearly is begging Democrats to strike a deal to raise the rate back to 5%.

    No. Chance.

    Especially not now that he says his plan is to lead efforts to put Radogno and Durkin in charge.

    If there is going to be a tax hike, he is going to have to propose it, in his budget address, and Radogno and Durkin and their top budget leaders are all going to have to lead the charge.


  11. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 7:05 am:

    ===looks more to me like some quick revisionism by the Rauner Crew to walk back===

    Nah. Just lazy reporting.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Legionnaires' Disease again plaguing state's veterans home
* Republican Party mocks Pritzker, Kennedy for not releasing their tax returns
* Random Twitter likes
* WBEZ Investigation: CPS Secretly Overhauled Special Education At Students’ Expense
* Question of the day
* Kankakee's "innovative" plan will allow Amazon execs "to create their own incentive package"
* Some "experts" confounded by latest bond sale
* Rauner administration preparing cuts
* *** UPDATED x4 - Manar, DGA, IWT, IMA respond *** Illinois loses out on Toyota/Mazda plant
* Kennedy and Rush keeping it all in the family
* Manar: "There's a financial incentive for Facebook to allow lies"
* Statehouse women fight back against sexual harassment
* New SEIU radio ad rips Rauner's home services overtime cuts
* Rauner to unveil potentially huge Chicago project
* Dems talk taxes at forum
* Chris Kennedy warns high-dollar campaigns could mean "the end of American democracy"
* *** UPDATED x1 - ILGOP responds *** Pritzker responds to "The Madigan Question" by saying he favors term limits for legislative leaders
* *** UPDATED x1 - RAGA responds *** Ruiz announces for AG
* Dem candidates make big promises on the environment
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Illinois Pitches Chicago to Amazon - Alton Dail.....
* Rauner plans human services cuts - SaukValley.com..


* Illinois designates 6 sites as statewide enterprise zones
* Appellate court affirms conviction in 2011 stabbing death
* Obama returns to campaign trail for Dems in governor's races
* Illinois out of running for Toyota-Mazda manufacturing plant
* University of Illinois proposes Chicago innovation center
* Obama to campaign in NJ, Virginia governor races
* Exploding ammunition stymie firefighters in fatal fire
* Correction: Newspaper Executive-Death story
* Judge to hear arguments on tribe's pipeline contingency plan
* Ex-East St. Louis linebacker sues, says has brain damage

* Under the Dome Podcast: Will lawmakers address gun control during the veto session?
* Chicago lawyer announces bid for Illinois attorney general
* Illinois borrows $1.5B at reduced interest to pay down debt
* Rauner cuts human services, other area in state budget
* Pritzker makes list of richest Americans; Rauner releases tax returns
* Pritzker makes list of richest Americans; Gov. Rauner doesn't
* Pritzker makes list of richest Americans, Gov. Rauner doesn't
* Chicago officially submits bid for Amazon's 2nd headquarters
* New University of Illinois medical school to grant full scholarships
* 'Johnny Appleseed' trees to mark Illinois bicentennial

* How many layoffs and where? Northern Trust unveils cost cuts
* How many layoffs and where? Northern Trust launches cost-cutting plan
* Latest Dem to move for AG Madigan's job
* Navistar sued again in ongoing engine dispute
* Why is Tootsie Roll even a public company?


* Police investigating death of man found in Loop alley
* Masked suspects rob cellphone store at gunpoint in West Chicago
* Convenience store robbed near City Hall
* Kinzie Street Bridge to close for inspection Friday
* TELANDER: The party isn’t over at Wrigley Field; it’s just tamer
* At the Aragon, Kesha makes powerful statements with words and music
* Wade Davis out for Game 5 as Cubs send Jose Quintana vs. Kershaw
* Police: Man found shot to death in South Shore
* In Kershaw, ‘we have right guy going tomorrow,’ Dodgers say
* Javy Baez belts 2 HRs, Wade Davis guts 6-out save as Cubs stay alive


* Man found dead in Loop alley
* Illegal guns are killing innocent people
* Aurora man who tried to join al-Qaida branch in Syria faces sentencing
* To avoid city backlash, restaurants and retailers should dump cashless ways
* Morning Spin: What word did Emanuel use 31 times in his budget speech?
* Man burglarized homes, struck sleeping residents on Northwest, Near West sides
* Sudden plan to move ties partner in knots
* 1 killed, 1 wounded in South Side shootings
* Energy returns to Wrigley as Cubs stay alive with Game 4 win over Dodgers
* NLCS Game 4: 8 pivotal moments in Cubs' 3-2 victory over Dodgers


» Illinois Issues: Cities Lose Out On Retail Tax As Online Shopping Booms
» What Could Hurt Chicago’s Bid For Amazon’s HQ2?
» At CPS, More Special Education Dollars Go To White, Wealthier Students
» Illinois Bond Sale To Help Pay $16bn Debts
» Mayor To Propose Higher Prices For Ridesharing, Big Concerts
» WBEZ Investigation: CPS Secretly Overhauled Special Education At Students’ Expense
» How's The Illinois Economy? For Rauner Administration, Depends On The Audience
» Online Locator Tool Aims to Make Recycling Easier
» State Week: Prison Assaults, Pawar's Exit
» Lawmakers Urged To Override Life Insurance Veto


* Illinois Trial Lawyers Association: U.S. Chamber Poll is another attack on the rights of Illinois citizens
* Marc A. Thiessen: The GOP's bump-stock cop-out
* Kathleen Parker: #MeToo: Tipping point, or outrage du jour?
* Under the Dome Podcast: Will lawmakers address gun control during the veto session?
* Chicago lawyer announces bid for Illinois attorney general
* Joe McMenamin: Aldermen and big money
* E.J. Dionne: Reformers: Be ready when your time comes
* Byron York: What's behind Trump's new executive actions
* Catherine Rampell: Trump's tax proposal won't actually help the middle class. Here's what would.
* Michael Gerson: The religious right has become a tribe of sycophants


* Government says no misleading about Schock
* School board approves South project architect
* Reader photo: Dilly-dahlia-ing
* Upcoming Services for Oct. 19
* Concord church marking milestone
* Fling: In Brief
* Rose Ann Pollock
* Ruby Everett
* Rose Marie Hessling
* Dale Bozarth


* 5 months of Marawi siege reveals Philippine city in ruins
* Chicago Cubs still in it to win it
* 10-year-old boy who was mauled talks about ordeal
* Constable: Cubs woke up, and now fans cling to hope
* Images: Cubs defeat the Dodgers in game four of the NLCS

* Hundreds of high school students tour Smit...
* Rival: Kinzinger not conservative - MyWebT...
* Naperville's Lauren Underwood to run for R...
* Measure extends term of FSOC independent m...
* Hultgren 'disappointed' about potential re...
* Democratic 14th Congressional District can...
* GOP congressmen say Rauner 'let down' Illi...
* Democratic candidates square off in Kendal...
* Hundreds of high school students tour Smit...
* Rival: Kinzinger not conservative - MyWebT...

* Sessions' hearing heats up over sanctuary ......

* Senate EPW Committee Postpones Vote on EPA......
* Commentary: Congress is on the offensive a......

* Cit-Go Somewhere Else
* Only the rich can run for office – is that our political trend of the 21st Century?
* Have I ever had a "red pill" moment?
* For MCA 50, ambient musician Lykanthea explores culture, history, and identity with her dream ensemble
* On her solo debut, Heather Trost sets aside A Hawk and a Hacksaw’s Roma influence for dreamy pop
* Democratic Party Chairman and tax man Joe Berrios is back to his old dirty tricks.
* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Chicagoetry: My Bastard Heart
* Pamela Bannos’s Vivian Maier: A Photographer’s Life and Afterlife, reviewed
* JASC Presents Holiday Delight/Kodomo Matsuri - Craft Bazaar & Children's Festival


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* HTC U11 Plus bears obvious resemblance to U11 in leaked renders, but differences are crucial
* Nokia 7 can do ‘bothies’ for a fraction of the 8’s price, with a Zeiss camera and OZO audio
* Hiya, a Whitepages spinout, nabs $18M to for its smart caller ID technology
* Ultimate Ears Debuts 'BLAST' and 'MEGA BLAST' Speakers With Alexa Support and Charging Dock
* Sony Xperia XZ Premium Android Oreo update to come from December
* OPPO F5 to insist on Selfie Expert position with 12MP dual cameras
* Google Pixel 2 Visual Core, HTC U11 Plus rumors & more – Pocketnow Daily

* We may as well talk radical realignment
* Adolfo 'grew up,' hit his stride in 2017
* The top 11 White Sox winners of 2017
* Mid-October White Sox fall ball update
* Inbox: Has White Sox Draft strategy evolved?
* Podcast: 2017 White Sox Outfielders Review
* Sox Century: Oct. 15, 1917


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller