Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » False equivalence taken too far
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
False equivalence taken too far

Monday, Jul 28, 2014

* The AP’s Chicago bureau claims that both gubernatorial candidates “are playing a little fast and loose” with budget numbers. But so is the AP

Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January then be scaled back over four years to 3 percent.

Except Rauner has also said he’s open to raising the rate after January’s scheduled drop. No mention of that in the piece.

…Adding… This commenter accurately points to yet another big problem with the AP story

“Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January”

“rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports”

That is–at present–the plan for Quinn, too. Quinn signed the sunsetting increase into law and signed a budget that includes that drop.

Exactly. Rolling the rate back to 3.75 percent come January 1st isn’t “Rauner’s plan,” it’s current state law.

The AP’s Chicago bureau does a horrible job with state government. They need to let Springfield’s top-notch bureau carry the load.

* And this appears to have been added to make the story look more “even-handed”

Quinn overstates the revenue drop under Rauner’s plan — at least to start.

A report from the non-partisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability says rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports, would reduce revenues by almost $5 billion for the budget year that begins in July 2015 — not $8.5 billion. Rauner says his sales tax plan would generate another roughly $600 million, bringing the total revenue loss to about $4.4 billion. This year’s entire general fund budget is $35.7 billion.

The larger drop in revenue would come later, when the rates would be lowered to pre-2011 levels.

The number the Quinn campaign is using is accurate because they’ve never said it was the immediate impact.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

11 Comments
  1. - Jimmy - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    Obviously, getting revenue projections correct in light of Kanerva v. Weems is critical so we know just how big a problem the state has in dealing with its debt. The recent Illinois Supreme Court decision has generated a lot of concern on the revenues needed to pay state and local governments’ retiree obligations - and this may be a good thing for non-traditional revenue ideas. New or not-so-new revenue ideas in Illinois may be a lot more feasible now, post-Karnerva v. Weems, to avoid additional tax increases and draconian cuts to spending. In light of Karnerva, I’m thinking that significant gaming expansion and marijuana legalization should get a closer look by Illinois’ legislature in the very near future.

    Having 5-6 casinos in downtown Chicago and legal pot sales would generate of lot of revenue, something big business, unions and public sector retirees could all get behind (unlike a financial services transaction tax) to avert a financial disaster. Would it be enough to pay all the debt? Probably not. Would it be enough to prevent the tax increases and cuts from causing real estate prices to drop and panic voters? Maybe. Do either of the candidates have the guts to make this argument? Probably not…

    I think Rauner - maybe more so than Quinn - may be thinking outside the box and seeing this angle. He just won’t articulate it until after the election.

    I think it would be great if the two candidates could focus on new revenue ideas for the State instead of arguing over how much they want to extract from traditional revenue sources.


  2. - Chris - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:48 am:

    “Under Rauner’s plan, the rate would drop to 3.75 percent in January”

    “rolling back the rates as scheduled on Jan. 1, which Rauner supports”

    That is–at present–the plan for Quinn, too. Quinn signed the sunsetting increase into law and signed a budget that includes that drop.

    Saying “I don’t support the bill that I signed” is trying to have it both ways. Pat Quinn owns the entire situation with the SIT rate change.


  3. - DuPage Dave - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    This is now the part of the campaign that makes people crazy- arguing over numbers, which numbers are more accurate, which numbers reflect leadership or incompetence.

    Numbers are a code for trust, i.e., you can trust me more than you can trust him- to handle the money, to make the right decisions, to not be a crook.


  4. - Makandadawg - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    Rich, thanks for keeping an eye on AP. Their stories get reprinted all over Illinois with little vetting by the outlets. The Devil is in the details as we get closer to the election.


  5. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 1:07 pm:

    AP does this a lot. You’re right that John O’Connor and the others in Springfield do a great job but the Chicago folks are completely clueless. ARGH.


  6. - Soccermom - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    I think that campaigns and electeds sometimes cynically take stories to the Chicago bureau that they know the Springfield folks would never swallow. But I don’t know why the Springfield bureau is not running a correction this morning.


  7. - Anon - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    At least the AP makes it clear that Rauner would face a huge hole in his first budget that his service taxes wouldn’t come close to patching.


  8. - Dirty Red - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 2:51 pm:

    People who major in journalism to get away from doing math probably should not be writing stories about state finances.


  9. - walker - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Numbers are correct or wrong, given the same assumptions. In this case the AP is reporting the Republican spin more than checking the arithmetic for accuracy.

    In fact in the short term, there’s little discernable difference between Rauner and Quinn, except that Quinn has already provided more details and presented a plan that matches the numbers — which didn’t get GA support.


  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Jul 28, 14 @ 11:29 pm:

    @Rich -

    The AP story looks more to me like some quick revisionism by the Rauner Crew to walk back Rauner’s plan.

    Rauner was clearly hoping people would see his wink-wink on the 3.75% tax rate and keep walking.

    He clearly is begging Democrats to strike a deal to raise the rate back to 5%.

    No. Chance.

    Especially not now that he says his plan is to lead efforts to put Radogno and Durkin in charge.

    If there is going to be a tax hike, he is going to have to propose it, in his budget address, and Radogno and Durkin and their top budget leaders are all going to have to lead the charge.


  11. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 7:05 am:

    ===looks more to me like some quick revisionism by the Rauner Crew to walk back===

    Nah. Just lazy reporting.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Memorial Day
* Population loss threatens home rule powers
* Rauner appears open to yet another expansion of the death penalty
* New Rauner online ad slams Pritzker over Madigan (again)
* Attendance issues
* It's just a bill
* A couple more weird Republican candidates slip through the screens
* Senate ignores IRS warning, passes tax work-around bill
* Mayor Emanuel's bill sponsor: "This is NOT a carjacking bill"
* Stop Illinois Big Coal Bailouts
* Today's quotable: "It's just show-biz"
* The taxes no one wants to talk about
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Bernard Schoenburg: Prosecutors question quick .....
* Spaulding Veteran Memorial hosts Memorial Day c.....
* Conservative group slams effort to reinstate de.....


* Air quality warnings posted for balance of holiday weekend
* Chicago photographer's project shows disparities in the city
* Chicago-area man facing drug charges captured in Mexico
* Illinois school apologizes after backlash over yearbook
* EXCHANGE: Child of refugees completes journey to graduation
* EXCHANGE: Education, artistic talent combined in K-9 kits
* Vote expected on new Chicago police training academy
* Cases of fired pathologist reviewed after wrong rulings
* Jack Johnson's niece visits grave after posthumous pardon
* Indiana man receives life term in 7 women's deaths

* Bernard Schoenburg: Prosecutors question quick return to death penalty
* Statehouse Insider: Legislature puts on the breaks
* Plan for Springfield casino floated again, but won't be part of expansion this year
* Illinois House divided on allowing police drone surveillance at events
* Downstate lawmakers propose reinstating death penalty
* Bill to allow police drone crowd surveillance in limbo in Illinois House
* House OKs bill to pay $63M in back wages owed to 24,000 workers
* Lawmaker charging retaliation wants complaint system changes
* Bill to give Sangamon County first dibs on state jobs passes Senate
* Illinois House considers using marijuana to fight opioids

* Chance, six others depart DuSable board in shakeup
* The opioid treatment gap
* Detroit offered $4 billion for Amazon HQ2
* Fiat Chrysler recalls 4.8 million vehicles over cruise-control flaw
* ComEd bills are rising this summer—and more after that


* Seoul: North Korea committed to US summit, denuclearization
* Woman found strangled to death in West Garfield Park
* More LGBTQ issues loom as justices near wedding cake decision
* Joshua Holt arrives in US after being jailed in Venezuela for 2 years
* Meeting draws people angry over fatal police shooting in Virginia
* Southern states prepare as Subtropical Storm Alberto heads north
* “Hero teacher” released from hospital, U.S. Rep says
* Anderson, Abreu power White Sox past Tigers
* Chicago sees hottest Memorial Day weekend in 5 years, hitting 90 degrees
* Cubs put Yu Darvish on 10-day disabled list with triceps tendinitis


* American jailed in Venezuela for 2 years arrives in U.S. with family
* North and South Korean leaders hold surprise meeting in DMZ to get U.S. summit back on track
* Florida declares state of emergency as storm Alberto approaches
* Cubs rotation will have to find its bearings without Yu Darvish for now
* Cubs catcher Victor Caratini heads to the minors for more playing time
* Chris Paul receiving regular treatment to return for Rockets
* Senate aide's backchannel with 'Dracula' helped free Utah man in Venezuela
* Trump accused media of using a ‘phony’ source. It was a White House official giving a press briefing.
* Man held on 30K, accused of firing shots off Marina City balcony
* 5 things to know about Six Flags' new Hangover thrill ride


» Elgin Teachers Roundly Reject Novel Contract
» State Week: Budget Optimism, Retaliation Charged In House
» Police Drone Surveillance Measure Crashes In Illinois House
» WBEZ’s Chicago and Illinois News Roundup: May 25, 2018
» Web Extra, The Week in Review: NFL Policy a Fumble?
» The Week in Review: Madigan Faces Retaliation Claims
» Reuniting Families with Military Medals; Author Chibundu Onuzo; Best Illinois Books
» #652 Give the Drummer Some
» Despite IRS Warning, Illinois Senate Approves Federal Tax Workaround
» May 24, 2018 - Full Show


* Bernard Schoenburg: Prosecutors question quick return to death penalty
* Our View: Aldermen should not rescind TIF dollars for downtown renovation
* Statehouse Insider: Legislature puts on the breaks
* Angie Muhs: Happy to welcome another Reader Advisory Board
* Plan for Springfield casino floated again, but won't be part of expansion this year
* Illinois House divided on allowing police drone surveillance at events
* From the battlefield to the basketball court – Arlyn Lober survived WWII and dedicated himself to teaching
* Downstate lawmakers propose reinstating death penalty
* Bill to allow police drone crowd surveillance in limbo in Illinois House
* House OKs bill to pay $63M in back wages owed to 24,000 workers


* Take a tour around the Summer Camp grounds: there's a little bit of everything
* HS Boys Track: 2018 State Finals
* Decatur's Avenue of Flags honors those who served
* Significant Strutures: Urbana's Stephens Building
* One dead in Whiteside County rollover crash
* Can food assistance program in Peoria be fixed?
* Class 3A Regional Title HS Baseball: Central vs Mt. Zion
* Indoor fun in the summer
* Enjoy the beautiful outdoors picking apples, sipping wine
* Morthland College is closing, according to an attorney for the West Frankfort school


* Marine wants families to see true stories of loves one lost in war
* Chicago White Sox have their eye on OSU's Madrigal
* Cubs place Darvish on 10-day DL for second time this season
* 5 new suburban events and exhibits coming this summer
* Full-time police resource officer considered for District 70 schools

* Newtown Action Alliance demands Paul Ryan ...
* Shimkus discusses tariffs, opioids and oth...
* Facebook co-hosting a Boost Your Business ...
* US Congress asks Pai why he keeps ignoring...
* EDITORIAL: Sign your names, GOP Congressme...
* How the House Intelligence Committee Colla...
* US Congress asks Pai why he keeps ignoring...
* A conversation with Lonnie Bunch
* Star Wars Day in Joliet offers much fun fo...
* 2 wonderful women have plenty to share in DC

* Joshua Holt, American Held In Venezuela Fo......
* The Latest: Trump welcomes freed American ......
* The Latest: Holts had worried their releas......
* The Latest: American jailed in Venezuela r......
* Freed Utahn Josh Holt boards jet headed fo......

* EXCLUSIVE: Attorney general hopeful Zephyr......
* Sen. Tammy Duckworth expresses support for......
* After push from 2 Philly moms, Amtrak adds......
* Sen. Tammy Duckworth Backs NFL Players Who......
* How area members of Congress voted on vets......

* Racial Diversity in EdTech: Little Data Available and A Lot of Work Ahead
* Unbundling the 4-year degree: How to design education for the future
* How to overcome 10 digital learning challenges
* How Can We Improve Accessibility Through Instructional Design?
* Where Are All the Faculty in the Open Education Movement?
* Using Google to Maximize Student Organization and Productivity
* EXTRA: Are you sure immigrants are taking over everything in this nation
* Volokh: Blocking of Twitter Users from @RealDonaldTrump Violates First Amendment
* Former Jewel store lot at 83rd/King Drive is for sale...
* Study: 2013 School closings hurt Chicago’s children. But CPS CEO Janice Jackson says she will not be deterred from closing schools.


* IEMA Releases New Broadcast Campaign Focusing on Functional Needs Emergency Preparedness
* Rend Lake Water Conservancy District Water Main Break
* Statement from Gov. Rauner
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May
* IEMA Highlights Role of Volunteers in Disasters

  
* Weekly poll results: Two-thirds of people love the OnePlus 6
* Deal of the day: 45% Off Fader Stealth self-flying drone
* Let’s take a look at the new YouTube Music (hands-on)
* Cloud computing sticker shock is now a monthly occurrence at many companies
* New York City’s subway disaster now has its own 8-bit video game
* Leaked Xiaomi Mi 8 retail box confirms dual camera, dual GPS module and no 3.5mm jack
* Snow, the Korean Snapchat clone, now has its own version of Animoji

* Anderson leads homer-heavy barrage vs. Tigers
* Anderson leads homer-heavy barrage vs. Tigers
* Chisox offense overheats in Detroit, paces 8-4 win
* Shields aims to add to hot streak vs. Tigers
* 2018 MLB Draft Profile: Jonathan India
* White Sox Minor League Update: May 25, 2018
* White Sox falter late, fall in Motown, 5-4


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller