Poll: Rauner has 14-point lead
Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Gov. Pat Quinn is facing an increasingly uphill battle against Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner, a new We Ask America poll shows.
Rauner is now sitting on a 14-point lead in the poll that was conducted July 28, which is up from his 10-point lead he had in a June poll. Rauner’s boost can be attributed to his economic plan, which includes a state income tax reduction. A poll showed while people don’t believe Illinois can afford this plan, a majority say it makes them more likely to vote for him. […]
Overall, if the election were held today, Rauner would pull in 47 percent of the vote, compared to Quinn’s 33 percent. Of those polled, 20 percent said they’re still undecided.
* Reboot…
The poll contained three questions asked in sequence to gauge respondents’ reactions to the tax plans forwarded by Quinn and Rauner. Respondents first were asked for whom they would vote if the election were today. They then heard specifics of the tax plans in a second question: “Pat Quinn wants to make permanent the 5 percent personal income tax rate. Bruce Rauner wants to take four years to reduce the income tax rate to 3 percent. Rauner would also expand the sales tax to cover 32 services; not just goods. We’d like to know which plan you think is more likely to balance the budget?”
After answering that question, respondents were asked, “Knowing this information about each candidate’s approach to taxes and budgeting, for whom would you vote if the election were held today?”
Support for Quinn fell slightly — from 33 to 31 points — after respondents heard about Quinn’s plan to keep the current 5 percent personal income tax rate rather than allowing it to fall as scheduled to 3.75 percent at year’s end. Though Rauner’s plan contains its own version of a tax increase even as it proposes to lower the income tax over four years, his poll numbers increased slightly after respondents learned of his plan.
Respondents said they believed Rauner’s tax plan was more likely to balance the state budget than Quinn’s by an 11-point margin.
That last line is telling for its preposterousness. People really want to believe in magic fairy dust. Rauner apparently knows that.
Also, Rauner is still leading in suburban Cook. That’s truly ominous news for Quinn.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:17 am:
People clearly see Quinn’s plan as the same type of plan that we’ve been using for years…one they don’t perceive as working. In Rauner’s plan they see something they’re not quite sure of, but even so they see something different. That by itself is worth a few points for Rauner.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:17 am:
Well that is how Rod got re-elected….
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:17 am:
– Rauner’s boost can be attributed to his economic plan, which includes a state income tax reduction. A poll showed while people don’t believe Illinois can afford this plan, a majority say it makes them more likely to vote for him. –
Illinois: We get what we deserve.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:23 am:
==Please! The people behind ‘we ask America’ have endorsed rauner for governor==
Pretty sure Rich uses WAA…is he part of your Rahm/Rauner conspiracy too?
- train111 - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:24 am:
Isn’t ‘Magic Fairy Dust’ the reality of American politics today? Tell people they can have anything they want, but don’t have to ever pay for it–or at least somebody else should pay for it, not the hard working-family values-All-American Joe, but I digress.
Magic fairy dust abounds all over, and both sides use it to ‘medicate’ the pains of reality. The side that wins, is the one that convinces more people that its ‘magic fairy dust’ solutions are less painul than the other sides’ ‘magic fairy dust’ solutions. The polling results in Illinois are only a microcosm of nationwide trends.
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:26 am:
==Also, Rauner is still leading in suburban Cook. That’s truly ominous news for Quinn. ==
Indeed it is. In talking to and listening to Bill Brady it was always clear that he never understood the dynamic that exists in suburban cook and the collar counties. His assumption was that everything north of I-80 is “Chicago” and a single voting block.
Unfortunately Rauner’s plan will be a disaster (IF he can implement it).
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:29 am:
It’s official: Illinois citizens will believe anything as long as THEY don’t have to pay for it!
- William j Kelly - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:29 am:
We Ask America is the polling arm of the Illinois Manufacturing Association which has endorsed Rauner. If memory serves, Greg Baise of IMA also is partners with Ron Gidwitz on one of his super pacs.
- The Captain - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:30 am:
“A poll showed while people don’t believe Illinois can afford this plan, a majority say it makes them more likely to vote for him.”
This should be engraved in bronze outside of the State Board of Elections so that every candidate turning in their petitions has to pass by it. Voters, nutshell.
- MrJM - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:30 am:
“A poll showed while people don’t believe Illinois can afford this plan, a majority say it makes them more likely to vote for him.”
smh.
– MrJM
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:31 am:
People really want to believe in magic fairy dust.
Worse - only Rauner is spreading magic fairy dust! Why do I feel a need to tell the Governor’s campaign staff to do what candidates ALWAYS do?
Hey - both challenger and incumbent are to spread magic fairy dust throughout the electorate, making promises few believe, (A poll showed while people don’t believe Illinois can afford this plan, a majority say it makes them more likely to vote for him.) - yet, that is what every campaign is supposed to do. Winners promise!
Where has the Governor been? Where is the magic fairy dust telling us that Illinois is BACK? Where is the magic fairy dust telling voters that Governor Quinn is a bold leader? Where is the fairy dust telling us that Pat has new and miraculous solutions to our state’s problems? Where is the magic fairy dust any winning incumbent sprinkles throughout the land?
There has been no happy warrior waging a fight for our future in Pat Quinn’s campaign. He is not showing us that he is in our corner. Pat Quinn’s campaign has been really, really bad. He is not sprinkling that magic fairy dust, not telling us why we should vote FOR him.
Candidates are supposed to do TWO things - lie about their opponent, and sprinkle magic fairy dust to make us support them. Pat Quinn’s campaign has been without magic fairy dust. All he has been doing is lying about Rauner. This is not enough!
So who is sprinkling that magic fairy dust? One guy - the challenger. With the way things have been in Illinois, Rauner doesn’t have to flat out lie about Quinn, so Rauner ends up looking more positive with his ladles of hokum.
Voters want a positive reason to vote for someone and Pat Quinn has YET to give them more than one, and I’m being generous with that ONE. Pat Quinn cannot win reelection by bashing Rauner. In 2014, this is not enough. The Governor needs to restore his electorate support by reminding them that they did not screw up voting him in.
This poll shows that Quinn isn’t telling us why he should be reelected. This poll is telling us that although voters aren’t buying the entire pie in the sky - they are supporting the candidate that is AT LEAST POINTING to the sky.
You defeat Rauner by showing and telling Illinoisans that they already have the best guy in office NOW! This is electoral campaigning 101!
What is so freaking hard about that Quinnsters?
Honestly, it is like Rauner has the entire campaign to himself and Quinn is AWOL.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:31 am:
This race is starting to look over before it even begins… still early but Quinn has a massive hole and does not appear to be running on his record (which granted is a lot of bad news), but rather his stunts (which are as silly as Rauner’s fiscal proposal).
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:32 am:
A poll is a poll.
Bad news for Quinn. The suburbs are just terrible.
Rauner needs higher negatives for Quinn to pull this out…the lack of education on Rauner is a huge glaring hole.
- MoreNumbers - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:36 am:
Here’s another account that was released last night from a different pollster, huge sample size too:
www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CBS_NYT_YouGov_0714_IL.pdf
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:37 am:
VanillaMan is 100% right about the Quinn campaign. First of all, what is Quinn’s campaign about? I have no idea. PQ is in serious trouble.
That said, let’s remember that is July, and no one but the political geeks who read this blog is paying attention. Quinn can still turn this thing around if — and it’s a big if — he brings some discipline to his message and delivery thereof.
- Not Rich - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:43 am:
I’m surprised the poll doesn’t show Brucie up by 20 points..however, we all know that come a few days before Halloween, this will become a horse race. If PQ doesn’t get above 93% of the black vote “HE GONE”..
- AlabamaShake - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:45 am:
**Here’s another account that was released last night from a different pollster, huge sample size too:
www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CBS_NYT_YouGov_0714_IL.pdf**
Huh. Durbin supposedly only up 7 (with leaners), yet generic congressional ballot has Dems up 8?
Doesn’t pass the smell test.
So weird numbers in the polls coming out these days.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:47 am:
Has Quinn’s luck left him?
He’s going to need it because his campaign is not cutting it.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:50 am:
==- MoreNumbers - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:36 am:
Here’s another account that was released last night from a different pollster, huge sample size too:
www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CBS_NYT_YouGov_0714_IL.pdf==
I seriously question that Republicans will only make up 24% of the vote, as the crosstabs to that poll show, in an off year election,
- Aldyth - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:52 am:
It’s unfortunate that voters aren’t looking at Rauner with a critical eye. They’re simply expressing anger at the way things are right now and may end up trading down.
- walker - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:55 am:
He starts with a positive spot, establishing a tint of positive about his campaign up front, so that he can bury Rauner in negatives later on. Standard tactics.
The ad itself is welcome, because it tells the truth, and refutes some cheap shallow shots that have been taken at him. He has indeed cut discretionary spending, tried to reduce future pension costs, and taken some very tough steps.
The problem is that we prefer “magical” leaders over pedestrian ones.
Overall production good, but a bit slow. Overall net impact low. C+/B-
VMan remains in touch with the dynamics of this election, and why Quinn is in trouble, but Quinn cannot win without strong negative attacks on Rauner dominating his campaign.
- MoreNumbers - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:58 am:
2012 exit polls had the GOP as 27% of voters, so for a RV poll if say that makes some sense.
- Chicago - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:59 am:
Wasn’t George Ryan waaaay up all throughout and then only narrowly won?
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:02 am:
–Also, Rauner is still leading in suburban Cook. –
That’s the ballgame. If Quinn doesn’t flip that in a big way he loses.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:04 am:
==- MoreNumbers - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 9:58 am:
2012 exit polls had the GOP as 27% of voters, so for a RV poll if say that makes some sense.==
2012…presidential year with Obama running. 2014…off year election. Usually big difference in who turns out. What was it in 2010
- Jechislo - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:04 am:
Both this WeAskAmerica poll, as well as Rich’s WeAskAmerica poll, are both ignored by RealClearPolitics. They must figure these polls are inaccurate?
- MoreNumbers - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:07 am:
Exactly, it’s a RV voter poll, meaning it would likely be close to a ‘full turnout’ year’s balance. The WAA poll is LV, but an 11-point difference seems like a bit much even at that. By that logic WAA would likely have Durbin underwater had they polled it, which seems suspect.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:09 am:
Also, are any of Quinn’s peeps pushing Karen Lewis to get into the mayor’s race?
Folks in the city might not get excited about Quinn/Rauner, but there are plenty who would like to have the opportunity to vote against Rauner’s pal. Rahm.
In fact, the more Rauner can be tied to Rahm right now the better for Quinn.
Quinn could only benefit from an anti-Rahm voter registration drive.
- A guy... - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:11 am:
These polls are reflecting mood. There’s a mood for change. The particulars will sharpen as we get closer, but less than 100 days out and PQ is losing and leaking in Suburban Cook. It’s hard to see how to turn that around. There’s plenty of critical “earned media” coming Quinn’s way too. If you focus on the trends more than the numbers in the poll, it’s a serious deficit.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:13 am:
–Where is the magic fairy dust telling us that Illinois is BACK? Where is the magic fairy dust telling voters that Governor Quinn is a bold leader? Where is the fairy dust telling us that Pat has new and miraculous solutions to our state’s problems? Where is the magic fairy dust any winning incumbent sprinkles throughout the land?–
In the Quinn spot highlighted in the first post of the day.
You could have saved yourself a lot of time by reading it. But time, clearly, you have plenty of.
- walker - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:13 am:
Mine at 9:55 posted to wrong thread. Sorry.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:14 am:
Anonymous at 9:17,
That is an indictment on us, not knowing that the 5% income tax has helped the state, and believing in “magic fairy dust,” which is what Rauner’s tax plan ultimately is.
I don’t believe that Rauner will win by this margin. Turnout will matter a lot.
- SlapshotII - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:18 am:
I am going to go ahead and call the election for Rauner. Write it down. Rauner will win the General Election for Governor of the State of Illinois. The tide has turned - Rauner has hammered home his message and defined himself to the voters. He has the money. He has the momentum. The only question now is who Rauner will appoint to what positions and how effectively he can work with a solidly Democrat controlled legislature.
- Nonners - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:19 am:
I’m gonna vote for Rauner so we have one target we can blame all of Illinois’ woes on.
This Quinn/Madigan blame duo is too confusing, and I’m getting sick of it.
If Rauner gets elected, the political discourse in Illinois is going to be elevated to a whole, new exciting level.
EVERYONE will be united as to who to blame for Illinois’ problems.
- Jimbo - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:22 am:
Ugh. I weep for the children. #halfjoking
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:28 am:
–Rauner’s boost can be attributed to his economic plan, which includes a state income tax reduction.–
It’s impossible to take that statement seriously, to believe that it’s the product of any rigorous analysis.
Quinn’s in big trouble, but he won’t lose by 14, or get just 33% of the vote, against a guy no one’s ever voted for before.
Maybe Baise is still honked about that whupping Quinn put on him back in the day in the treasurer’s race, lol.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:30 am:
@wordslinger, the Chicago election is in Feb. And Quinn’s going to do fine in the City, and I have no clue how the anti-Rahm stuff would play where it matters for PQ, which is the ‘burbs.
As an aside, do the burbs like Rahm (ala Daley back in the day)?
- Madison - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:35 am:
Vanilla, I respect many of your opinions; however:
“You defeat Rauner by showing and telling Illinoisans that they already have the best guy in office NOW! This is electoral campaigning 101!”
Thats a bit of a stretch no? The hapless Quinn has had 8 years now, and its worse than when he took over. Unless Q can get some serious negatives up on big R well its over.
Downstate it looks like 2010 all over again, in Illinois anyway.
Older white democrats here despise Obama, Quinn is portrayed as powerless hostage to MJM, every public retiree despises The lot. To make matters worse, I get the impression Rahm is not the most popular fella upstate either. The hard D’s I talk to say that many simply will not vote this cycle. vanilla you’re gonna have to get some lipstick on that Pig quick.
- Jack - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:38 am:
I think this Rauner is the biggest phony on two feet with his 18 dollar watch and carhartt jacket.
- facts are stubborn things - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:40 am:
RNUG,
this is exactly the thinking that led to 40 years of not funding the pension system — someone else pay for these programs we want. We get the government we deserve and I guess Illinois is for picksy dust and magic beans.
- Skeptical - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:43 am:
-OneMan “Well that is how Rod got re-elected…”
I was about to say something similar to this when I saw your post. And, my response is “Exactly! how he got elected.” All I can say is there is plenty of pixie dust to go around these days but relatively few magic bullets.
- Madison - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:44 am:
Slapshots a bit closer, and now the only question is how long will big R’s coattails be?
- AlabamaShake - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:45 am:
**The hapless Quinn has had 8 years now, and its worse than when he took over.**
Quinn has been in office for 5 years, not 8, and few knowledgable people would make the claim that IL is worse off now than it was when Quinn became Governor.
**Downstate it looks like 2010 all over again, in Illinois anyway.**
You do know that Quinn won in 2010, right? And that the Dems had a very good year overall in 2010?
- Madison - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:52 am:
Alabama I stand corrected.
About the 8 years.
Not about Illinois being worse off. And 2010 was a watershed elction, downstate.
And on to vanillas premise: how much lipstick is enough for this Pig. We can talk about our bet in November later.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 10:52 am:
–Slapshots a bit closer, and now the only question is how long will big R’s coattails be?–
Bill Brady campaign veterans take a break from measuring the drapes, lol.
Dude — it’s still July.
- Fed Up - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:01 am:
Apparently much to Quinn’s shock people after all don’t like having their paychecks raided by 2%. He lost me as a lifelong democrat with his position of permanently supporting pensions for public workers on the backs of the rest of us with the inflated income tax.
- AlabamaShake - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:08 am:
**as a lifelong democrat with his position of permanently supporting pensions for public workers on the backs of the rest of us with the inflated income tax.**
So you were a Democrat that doesn’t support constitutionally protected pensions (that, ironically, Quinn worked to slash), and doesn’t support adequately funding state government.
That’s an odd kind of Democrat.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:09 am:
You can’t say GOTV matters…
…and say in July it’s over.
Just sayin’
- anon - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:10 am:
We Ask America’s poll was not even close in the GOP primary. Dillard almost won - pretty funny. They should recuse themselves in this election given the group’s ties to Rauner.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:12 am:
A message centered around “Work hard, sacrifice, prepare for the future” is not credible coming from any Illinois politician.
And besides, who wants to hear that stuff anyway? I’m suffering now.
I’ll take quick fixes and pixie dust, thank you.
- R - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:12 am:
“Thats a bit of a stretch no? The hapless Quinn has had 8 years now, and its worse than when he took over. Unless Q can get some serious negatives up on big R well its over.
Downstate it looks like 2010 all over again, in Illinois anyway.
Older white democrats here despise Obama, Quinn is portrayed as powerless hostage to MJM, every public retiree despises The lot. To make matters worse, I get the impression Rahm is not the most popular fella upstate either. The hard D’s I talk to say that many simply will not vote this cycle. vanilla you’re gonna have to get some lipstick on that Pig quick.”
Rauner will not be a friend of public retires and employees. He will be worse then Quinn.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:15 am:
==We Ask America’s poll was not even close in the GOP primary. ==
In terms of the percentage Rauner got it was within the MOA. It impossible for polls in essentially open primaries to account for things like crossover vote, which we know was high this year.
- Wumpus - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:15 am:
Rauner has shown discipline not seen from a statewide GOP candidate since I don’t know or he just has money to keep at it. Either way, it is refreshing not to see a GOPer implode this late into the campaign season.
When does he file his taxes? When are they late and how much is the fine if late?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:17 am:
==Rauner will not be a friend of public retires and employees==
To most voters, being at odds with AFSCME is a plus these days.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:20 am:
==Rauner will not be a friend of public retires and employees==
Vs what a good friend Pat Quinn has been to them…
- Adam Smith - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:22 am:
I always love the echo-chamber chatter here. So many career political insiders with little grasp of the extent of the general public’s revulsion for the state’s political class.
Yes, GOPers share the blame to some extent, but one party rule has been a clear, undeniable fact for a decade and that one party is going to pay the price in the governor’s race.
The map is too well drawn to produce a huge swing but the House GOP can realistically pick up three or four seats, especially if Quinn can’t stop the bleeding.
Will Rauner fix everything? Hell no. But even the uniformed and disconnected voters know that Quinn has made things decidedly worse for them and that appears to be enough to try someone new. Even someone they may not think is “one of them.”
These numbers may scare Team Quinn to go nuclear very early. It may be their only chance. But if they can’t make Rauner appear completely repugnant to a big majority of voters it looks bad for Quinn.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:22 am:
== Rauner will not be a friend of public retires and employees. He will be worse then Quinn. ==
After the harm Quinn has done to public unions, Rauner is virtually the only candidate who could make Quinn even palatable.
It is like choosing between the guy who stole your computer and the guy who wants to steal your car. Neither are good choices.
- Fed Up - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:23 am:
“So you were a Democrat that doesn’t support constitutionally protected pensions (that, ironically, Quinn worked to slash), and doesn’t support adequately funding state government.
That’s an odd kind of Democrat.”
Not slashing what has been earned, but going forward moving to retirement systems the rest of us live within. Nothing about being a democrat means having your own paycheck raided to support a small protected class of people. There are currently over 10,000 retirees receiving pensions north of 100K. No private company in the world could stay in business like this. Supporting this out of control system comes at the expense of helping those who really need it.
- Mason born - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:26 am:
R
I find your comment about Rauner being worse than Quinn to be interesting.
what do you think Rauner is going to do that Quinn hasn’t?
Quinn signed and chearleaded a bill to gut pensions. Another to take away the healthcare of retirees. Then refused to pay contractural raises. In all of these he took all the way to the courts in attempting to hose the employees.
What do you think Rauner is going to do that is worse??
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:30 am:
From the archives
June 10 2010 Brady leads Quinn 47-36
June 16 2010 Poll: Brady leads 34-30-9
Aug 18 2010 PPP: Brady over Quinn and Whitney 39-30-11
Sept 13 2010 Rasmussen: Brady tops Quinn 50-37
Rich has covered the flaws in many polls during that race, but the lesson seems to be clear.
Don’t measure the drapes just yet.
- LCP45 - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:30 am:
If folks want a review of life under Gov Rauner, come to Chicago and see how the common folk are fairing under Mayor Emanuel…one Plutocrat in Springfield, one in the Mayors office could only further decimate the remains of the middle class in IL…
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:31 am:
@Fed Up:
Too bad that pesky Constitution gets in the way of your desire to raid the retirements of people. But I see your way of thinking - if you don’t get something (aka state retirement) then nobody else should either. Great logic.
And as Mason pointed out, Quinn has done (or tried) quite a lot to gut pensions and take away promised healthcare benefits. What else do you want?
- R - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:37 am:
I agree that Quinn is no friend of public employees but Rauner wants to do worse. He wants all public employees in a 401k and has talked about a 30% paycut. Also, he wants to get rid of the Union.
Public employees and retirees are not the enemy of private sector employees. Working conditions have gotten worse under Quinn and so I retired before my original plans. I am sure that Rauner will either keep the bad working conditions or make them worse. I plan on working part time in the private sector when my original plans were to retire with the State.
- Madison - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:37 am:
Fellas. They same poll a month or so ago downstate had rauner up like thirty points with only 11 undecided. That in itself means that DOWNSTATE Q cannot win unless something changes in a radical way DOWNSTATE.
Now Willly has a lot of respect for GOTV, and traditionally thats true. i also understand that the end game is Cook and the collars. Thats where the election will be won or lost;specifically mail in ballots.
- Fed Up - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:37 am:
The fake Fed Up at 11:23 needs to realize that contracts are contracts and I would love to know which pension system has 10k retiress making over 100k. That could use some documentation
- R - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:38 am:
I meant retire later with the State and not work part time.
- Fed Up - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:39 am:
Taking away what has been earned is wrong and should not be attempted. Moving forward changing to a system that mirrors everyone else would make sense. A 5% 401K match and social security provides a great retirement for those smart enough to take advantage. Paying higher income taxes on a temporary basis as part of a comprehensive package is something most taxpayers could get ahold of. Paying higher income taxes on a permanent basis to lower our quality of lives to support a protected class of people is not and why Quinn is losing going to lose handily in a very liberal state.
- R - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:40 am:
I agree with the real Fed Up
- R - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:42 am:
I disagree with the real Fed up’s last statement.
Keep the pension but fund it.
- AlabamaShake - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:55 am:
I’m just fed up with having to discern which fed up is fed up about what.
- Rod - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:55 am:
To Rauner’s credit his plan for the phase out of the current income tax rate will allow him to go back to the GA and seek to stop the rate reduction plan if there is not a significant increase in economic activity that generates revenue and his services tax also fails to generate needed revenue.
If Rauner is not rational he will go full speed ahead with the income tax rate reduction regardless of the overall revenue picture. In that situation he will have to implement massive cuts to k-12 education and will not be able to keep promises of freezing property taxes.
Maybe Quinn will catch fire and improve his situation, but Paul Vallas seems not to be helping at all. It also has not helped that Quinn is opposing the services tax proposed by Rauner, many people believe they can avoid this tax and it will not impact them. Quinn’s position on the services tax is not gaining him any traction.
- E town - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:57 am:
PQ will certainly make it a race, but suburban cook voters have shown over the years they have a greater comfort level with a fellow suburban cook statewide candidate like Rauner. In addition, there is really nothing in the way of accomplishments that Quinn can point to that has helped people in the suburbs. The number one issue for many suburbanites who are employed and living in relative safety is who will help my pocketbook the most and Quinn loses on that issue every day of the week with this constituency
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:13 pm:
Saying Rauner’s plan expands the sales tax to include 32 services is about how Ralph Martire would describe it.
Even I give Team Quinn more credit than that.
Tell voters Rauner wants to raise sales taxes in Cook County and the rest of Illinois by $600 million while cutting state funding for local schools by more than $1000 per child, shifting the burden onto lccal property tax payers.
Let me know how that polls.
Still, if stories are true that Team Quinn had the negative Rauner ads pulled in the primary because they actually thought they were better off facing Rauner than Dillard…every staff meeting should begin with a reminder that you chose this route.
- 9th Congressional CD - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:14 pm:
The #1, but far from the only, casualty of Quinn’s weakness in suburban Cook County will be Congressman Brad Schneider.
- Raising Kane - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:15 pm:
Formerly known as, those numbers serve as a good reminder that early polls don’t matter much once the fur starts flying. But the difference this time is that voters really didn’t have much of an opinion of Brady at this point four years ago. He was just kind of a generic alternative to Quinn. In this case, Rauner went through a tough primary (thanks to the unions) voters are better informed about his weaknesses than they were Bradys’ and they still are voting for Rauner over Quinn. It will be more difficult to move numbers now than it was 4 years ago.
Add that to the fact that Rauner is running a much, much better game organizationally and I have to give the edge to Rauner. Not a blow-out by any means but a 2-3 point win could be in the cards.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:16 pm:
There are few polls in Real Clear Politics. The most recent poll shows Rauner leading by 3. As we saw in the primary, a big lead in the polls can vanish.
Right now in AFSCME there’s a lot of anti-Rauner sentiment among leadership–obviously, the way he trashed it in the primary. There is potentially a large public union GOTV effort upcoming. These polls should motivate people but they should not psych anyone out.
- Fed up - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:28 pm:
I agree that Rauners negatives are already out there. This is more about Quinn being bad than Rauner being good. This is out choice it’s the voters fault.
- AlabamaShake - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:43 pm:
**Rauner went through a tough primary …voters are better informed about his weaknesses**
**I agree that Rauners negatives are already out there. **
Seriously? Ya’ll think that Rauner went through a tough primary, and that people already know his negatives?
I don’t believe one ad ran about Rauner saying he wanted to cut the minimum wage. I don’t believe one ad ran about Rauner vetoing marriage equality. And we have already seen significantly more research come out about Rauner’s nursing home abuse issues.
There are lots of negatives on Rauner if the Quinn folks can define him with them — and he most definitely hasn’t already been defined by them.
- Anon - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:46 pm:
If Rauner wins, look for the GOP narrative on Illinois to change dramatically. Instead of bad-mouthing the state for being the worst in everything, Republicans will suddenly find a lot to praise. Anything positive will be attributed to the new Guv.
- RMW Stanford - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 12:54 pm:
Anon 12:46, I am pretty sure the Dems will change the narrative too if Rauner wins
- Rauner's robotic polling firm - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 1:18 pm:
On March 17, the We Ask America gurus huddled around to bask in the glory of their two-week old poll that had Dillard down 25 point landslide election that was about to happen.
The reality 2.9 percent. Nice try boys! If Rauner is up by 10 two weeks out, then maybe there’s cause to think a new Governor will be inaugurated.
Quinn’s operation maybe inept, but don’t count out the machine. Remember we’re all still playing on Madigan’s playground.
- anon - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 2:10 pm:
**The reality 2.9 percent. Nice try boys!***
Too true
- Lester Holt's Mustache - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 3:50 pm:
Dems have a significant numbers advantage when it comes to voters in Illinois. Until I see it happen, I’m not buying a scenario where every single independent voter, and a sizable amount of Dems, vote against Quinn.
Illinois is not Indiana or Wisconsin. I would hold off on the drape measuring until at least Halloween.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 3:53 pm:
“We’d like to know which plan you think is more likely to balance the budget?”
Well that’s a truly pathetic question unless Reboot was trying to show that people are ignorant when it comes to state finances. Rich is absolutely right - people want to believe in painless fairy dust.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 3:53 pm:
- Fed Up - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 11:39 am:
You do realize changing as you suggest will actually cost the State more, at least for the short term like 10 - 15 years, than properly funding the current system?
- R - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 4:45 pm:
Thanks RNUG
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 5:05 pm:
==Dems have a significant numbers advantage when it comes to voters in Illinois. Until I see it happen, I’m not buying a scenario where every single independent voter, and a sizable amount of Dems, vote against Quinn.==
Not sure why you think that’s necessary in order for Quinn to lose. Republicans won three statewide races in 2010, and most people voted for someone other than Quinn that year.
- Lester Holt's Mustache - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 7:41 pm:
Mostly because I have been told repeatedly over the years how Jim Ryan/JBT /Bill Brady were going to win, and they are the exact same reasons I’m hearing now about how Rained is going to win. Quinn is down in the polls, Quinn is going to lose big downstate, conservatives are more motivated, people want change, etc etc etc.
I’ve been on these Cap Fax message boards since Ryan was governor, and I’ve heard it all before. You can spend your time making victory party plans if you want, I will only believe it when I see it.
You can spend your money
- Lester Holt's Mustache - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 7:47 pm:
Sorry,hit the button prematurely. You can spend your money on all the commercials you want, but until I see some of that cash equate to actual votes in an election, I’m not going to buy it.
- Jimbo - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 8:02 pm:
Thanks Lester. I’ll sleep better tonight after reading that.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Jul 29, 14 @ 8:07 pm:
Anonymous:
You are correct. Rutherford, Topinka and Kirk did win in 2010.
Lester is also correct: there is no doubt that Rutherford, Topinka and Kirk relied on quite a few crossover votes.
You can bet their were progressives voting for all three, and Rutherford and Topinka earned labor votes to boot.
Are there Democrats crossing over for Rauner? Sounds like it. Democrats usually have a pretty big advantage among women voters.
Most of that is pretty soft support, or Democrats sitting on their hands as undecideds that Quinn hopes to break his way. They ought to once the rest of the ticket, from Durbin down, gets cranking.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 7:33 am:
2014 is not 2010.
Stop the comparisons.
In 2010 Quinn convinced doubting voters to let him have a full term in office before deciding if he could be a good governor.
This year, those doubting voters in 2010 have decided and a majority have decided Quinn isn’t a good governor.
You add that majority to the base of support Quinn would normally get and you see that today’s polls reflect that the Governor will lose.
Quinn had a full term. He didn’t in 2010. The verdict is in. He’s out.
In 2010, Brady had to sell himself. He didn’t try.
In 2014, Rauner is everywhere.
So Quinn needed to convince his past voters that they made the right choice in 2010. Quinn already won this election. He had a head start reclaiming those voters. A problem of his, is that those 2010 voters have peeled off and no longer support him. If Quinn had solidified his 2010 voter base over the past four years - we would not see these poll numbers.
So 2010 is not 2014. Quinn in 2014 is no longer an unknown as he was in 2010. Quinn is the issue, and this election is about his need to sell himself again to the same people who voted for him four years ago.
So bashing Rauner isn’t enough, and Quinn has failed to do much more than that.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 8:09 am:
–2014 is not 2010.
Stop the comparisons.–
Too bad you didn’t take your own admonishment to heart instead of launching into your silly ramble.
- Jimbo - Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 8:26 am:
Actually VMan, Quinn was able to convince the voters that Brady’s 10% cuts plan proved he didn’t know how government works and that Brady would be a disaster for the state, he got the stragglers because of Brady’s hard right social stances. Rauner is trying to have it both ways on social issues, so Quinn might not be able to get those last votes, but as long as he can do a better job of convincing voters that Rauner would be a disaster for the state much like Brady would have been, this is going to be close. You also need to remember that although Brady was anti-union, he still got union votes. After the education campaign about Rauner, no teacher, family member of a teacher, or State employee will vote for Rauner. That’s a pretty big chunk of folks who will turn out and vote against Rauner. It looks bad for Quinn don’t get me wrong, but saying this isn’t like 2010 doesn’t make it as rosy for you as you think.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jul 30, 14 @ 9:10 am:
It looks bad for Quinn don’t get me wrong, but saying this isn’t like 2010 doesn’t make it as rosy for you as you think.
A Rauner win isn’t rosy for me, or for anyone.