SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Quinn still has base problems

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.

For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.

* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats

Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…

* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women

Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.

* From the pollster

“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”

* Methodology

This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments »
  1. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    So this is a one day poll, and the 14 point lead is basically cut in half because the Libertarian candidate took the other seven points. Better yet the Libertarian candidate is receiving more support from Democratic voters than Republican voters. Keep up the good work We Ask America!


  2. - Watch the clown - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    A one-day, automated poll….I’d guess the margin of error is a bit higher.


  3. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    We already see how this can end because we all know how well third parties fade on Election Day.

    Over half of the fade goes to the challenger.

    Rauner needs to hold on until October, then Quinn’s legal problems will hit the news broadcasts.

    Quinn needs to be up by 5% so he can still lose support during October and hang on somehow. If he is still behind like this in a month, he can lose - big.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.


  5. - anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    You see a problem, I see a solution. Lots of Democrats to bring home, and I believe that they will come home to Quinn. Also, I believe that 12% of dems currently supporting Rauner will shrink significantly. PQ needs to turn out the plusses.


  6. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    === wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.====

    This observation is true, however that’s where the sample in the cross tabs has to really be looked at. Suburban Cook is the most diverse category in the state. Gotta look harder at this one going forward.


  7. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    === PQ needs to turn out the plusses. ===

    Um, first he’s gotta turn them around from being zeroes or minuses.


  8. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    I think Democrats will come home, there just isn’t a lot to be excited about now and the polling shows it. The problem won’t be winning 90+% of Dems, it will be whether enough Dems turn out to vote. The lack of enthusiasm is a big, big problem for Quinn.

    And there is no path to victory for Quinn without winning a strong majoriuty of women. Much more than the Democrats in this poll, Quinn needs to target his messaging to women. And it needs to be powerful.


  9. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    I received a call from the AFL - last night asking who I was voting for in the governor’s race, Quinn or Rauner. I said neither one. Her reply was “OK, undecided. ” “nope neither one of them.” Guess they don’t even acknowledge the 3rd party.


  10. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Oops. Afl-cio


  11. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    47, you’re correct. I don’t think they’ve left home, but I do think they’re considering staying home.


  12. - Apocalypse Now - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Lack of enthusiasm = poor Democratic performance this fall. Seeing it across the board.


  13. - Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    It’s hard to spin this as good news for Quinn. He has a pretty solid hold on about 40% in both support and whether he’s doing a good job. The other 60% are not with him. This has not moved much all year.

    It’s hard for people to suddenly think you are competent to continue when you are seen as a failure after 6 years.


  14. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Surprised at the Cook Co suburbs result. I feel it moving Rauner’s way — but of course I’m no pollster.

    Rauner’s best ad mesaages that neighbors bring up: “Mrs. Rauner seems nice”, and “He promises to freeze our property taxes”.

    Most commented upon Quinn ad: Cayman Islands and Outsourcing Rauner.


  15. - Nonplussed - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Automated calls? Only 29% cell?

    Crap poll


  16. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    NP, you aren’t paying attention are you?


  17. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:23 am:

    i’m thinking of 1982. the base that had to be encouraged was in the African American community. and turn out it did, to the point where I recall working a precinct with a huge line waiting to vote past 7 pm. that governor’s race was oh so clods. however, this turnout worked against Mayor Byrne as it trained the community to come out. which they did for Harold Washington.


  18. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    close…..


  19. - downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Still believe this race is closer than people think. I don’t necessarily believe the Grimm vote comes mostly from the Rauner group, and many of them are anti choice votes that may return to Quinn.


  20. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Yes, the women vote is the key and they’re much more tuned into environmental issues. Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking, and there’s little space between Quinn and Rauner on policy. Earlier downstate poll crosstabs show women, especially democrat women, breaking against fracking. With science and news reports since fracking adoption, and new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement, if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium (along with a mother and child in a TV commercial).


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:52 pm:

    ===new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement===

    LOL


  22. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    ==Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking==

    Yeah, that’s the issue that’s swinging this election.

    ==if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium==

    Insanity knows no bounds.

    ==new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement==

    Clairvoyant now? There aren’t any rules to enforce yet.


  23. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    From my perspective, I’d say Quinn is about as popular with the green base as he is with the union members. Most will hold their nose and vote for Quinn, if they vote for him at all.


  24. - Jechislo - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    I think Quinn is in BIG trouble. Still going to be a real squeaker for whoever wins.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Do not bet on Chad Grimm “fading.”

    These voters are saying they are so fed up with the two major party nominees that they would vote for Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam.

    By November, more are going to be even more fed up, I bet. Although whether they actually vote for Grimm or stay home is anyone’s bet.


  26. - reggieandtfe - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    I wouldn’t bet on Grimm fading either. I remember a certain “Rich Whitey” (spelling joke) getting over 10% as a third party candidate for IL governor.


  27. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    If Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam were on the ballot, I can see how they could be a factor.

    However, I believe the chances of that happening with the Libertarians this year in this race, is rather - uh, Grimm.


  28. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Rich Miller:

    No, its the proposed IDNR fracking enforcement regime that’s the joke. I realize this isn’t a “fracking” thread, but read the new rules. Maximum fine (after 4 violations) $50,000. That’s 1% of the average investment of a frack site (source: IDNR) and well within the cost of doing business. IDNR doesn’t have the staffing capacity and training is still an open question. IDNR (and IEPA) are pretty well known as captured agencies, that won’t change with these rules.


  29. - Stones - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 5:37 pm:

    My opinion only but Mrs. Rauner is a huge asset to her husbands campaign. A big reason he is doing well with women.


  30. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:51 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Rauner is pro-choice. He thumbed his nose at the NRA. He wants to raise taxes.

    You don’t understand the TEA Party if you think they are all just going to “come home” for the election.

    Some, maybe. But I bet the eight percent grows between now and November as the race becomes more negative.

    Now Rich is right that Whitney wasn’t a factor in 2006 because the race was never that close. If it had been much closer, I don’t know if I would have voted for Topinka or Rod, but definitely not Whitney.

    Here’s the rub: liberal Democrats find it much easier to vote for a candidate who does not check all of our boxes than Republicans do, which is why there will never be a liberal version of the TEA Party.


TrackBack URI

Post your comment... And please take a half second to come up with a nickname. It makes following the posts easier for everyone... Thanks

In other words, do your best to be civilized and smart.


* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** UPDATED x1 - Frerichs response *** Former Democratic state treasurer endorses Cross - Cites bipartisanship, Israel bonds as reasons (COMMENTS OPENED)
* Prison reform group responds to new Rauner ad (COMMENTS OPENED)
* Quinn hit on botched early prisoner release program (COMMENTS OPENED)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Four ways to open applications and documents automatically in OS X
        * Skype Gets An iOS 8-Friendly Update With Interactive Notifications
        * Relive the book and movie experience with Maze Runner game
        * Apple Sells 10 Million iPhone 6 And 6 Plus Devices During Launch Weekend
        * Personal Cellspot deposit being waived for ordered placed before Sept. 24th?
        * How iOS 8 and Yosemite got me to stop jailbreaking my iPhone
        * Network update: LTE goes live in Gardner, MA plus a map of T-Mobile’s 700MHz spectrum

        * Skype For iOS 8 Brings New Features
        * HTC is reportedly working closely with Google to prepare a 64-bit Nexus 9
        * Five Things You Didn’t Know About Cortana, Microsoft’s Virtual Assistant
        * Apcera scores big, undisclosed, investment from Ericsson for its enterprise IT platform
        * Xprize Offers $15 Million for Tablet Apps That Help Kids Teach Themselves
        * Denied Automatically Skips Music You Don't Like in Spotify
        * 10 Million iPhone 6 And 6 Plus Units Sold During Launch Weekend

        * The road to the AL Central pennant goes through the White Sox
        * Danks cruises with abundance of support
        * Bassitt eyes revenge against first-place Tigers
        * White Sox 10, Rays 5: Indoor fireworks
        * Danks cruises with abundance of support
        * Rays add run after out at first overturned
        * Sale's final start to come Wednesday in Detroit


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * What Do Most Chicagoans Think Of Chicago?..
        * Poll: Davis Holds Large Lead in Top Illinois Co.....
        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO..
        * Libertarian could help tip Illinois governor's .....
        * New poll shows Quinn and Rauner in a dead heat..
        * Durbin favors investigation into Quinn's NRI pr.....
        * Once-Vulnerable Freshman on Safer Ground in Ill.....


        * Illinois man died of hypothermia in South Dakota
        * 4 men held without bond in Chicago boy's death
        * Chicago Latinos optimistic about new archbishop
        * Court: Illinois inmate must pay prison costs
        * Ground broken on new Chicago veterans' home
        * CTA: Fewer people trespassing on train tracks
        * Libertarian could help tip Illinois governor race
        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO
        * Cicero man convicted in girlfriend's death
        * Alton's ConAgra plant gets new name, new sign

        * Don’t bet on gaming expansion — yet
        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO
        * Former Illinois prisoners get help reintegrating
        * Court: Lincoln inmate must use $20K settlement to pay incarceration costs
        * Deadline ahead for Illinois marijuana businesses
        * Gov. Quinn picks up Sierra Club endorsement
        * Statehouse Insider: Rauner hit with double whammy
        * More than $59M collected from state retirees; refunds coming eventually
        * Lawmaker wants pumpkin to be official Illinois pie
        * Quinn: No pension ‘Plan B’ before court ruling

        * Scramble is on for tenants to anchor a third office tower
        * A grandmother can be CEO — or president
        * Which Chicago startup will be next with an IPO?
        * When $400 million can't buy love
        * The bleeding has stopped, but Navistar is still struggling


        * Nation needs to address end-of-life care
        * Joshua Miner to go on trial in gruesome Jan. 2013 double homicide
        * Hispanic families embrace Cupich
        * Area Catholics optimistic about Cupich
        * Four held without bond in shooting death of 9-year-old


        * 4 dead dogs, others sick and emaciated, found at Dolton animal hospital
        * 2nd Joliet trial to revisit grisly details of killings
        * Police issue alerts about sexual assaults in Lakeview, Galewood
        * Streets and San worker, wife charged in tow truck scam
        * 3 wounded in afternoon, overnight South Side shootings
        * Glen Ellyn police searching for missing autistic woman
        * State's locks, dams in urgent need of repair, report says
        * In the pews, Chicago-area Catholics embrace news of next archbishop
        * Suburban woman dies weeks after being struck by cab in Old Town
        * Cops: Robbery suspect fatally stabbed by alleged victim


        * Cupich to be next Chicago archbishop
        * Listen to State Week - September 19, 2014
        * Quinn Defends Public Education, Though He's A Product of Private Schools
        * Chris Mooney: More Evidence-Based Policymaking Needed
        * African Drumming At Southwind Park On Saturday
        * Investors gather in Chicago seeking cannabis businesses
        * Climate, Space Create Challenges For Local Food
        * Can A Governor Really Create Jobs?
        * How do you find high school dropouts?
        * Governor's Race Has A Third Contender; Judge Keeps Libertarians On Ballot


        * Don’t bet on gaming expansion — yet
        * Thomas Schneider and Jay Scott: Building strong families to curb child abuse, neglect
        * GOP's Rauner gets another $1M from hedge fund CEO
        * Former Illinois prisoners get help reintegrating
        * Court: Lincoln inmate must use $20K settlement to pay incarceration costs
        * Deadline ahead for Illinois marijuana businesses
        * Gov. Quinn picks up Sierra Club endorsement
        * Our Opinion: Springfield needs Magro project
        * Angie Muhs: Open government is worth fighting for
        * Statehouse Insider: Rauner hit with double whammy


        * Beautiful early-Fall weather for the Corn Belt
        * Big Muddy 5K Zombie Run to take place in Benton Community Park Sept. 27
        * On duty 9/22/14
        * Dave Loane 9/22/2014
        * Cairo man killed in Missouri crash
        * Man shot by taser, arrested after police chase into Fairview Heights
        * Blown-out garage windows: Suspicious fire under investigation
        * Photo exhibit features GCMS High School freshman’s work
        * Man tased, arrested after police chase into Fairview Heights
        * Dry and cool weather in forecast


        * Illinois medical marijuana applications due Monday
        * A red convertible he couldn't get off his mind
        * Tap House Grill grows in the suburbs
        * New smartphone danger: Distracted walking
        * Forecasters: This winter won't be as bad as last year

        * Hispanic Caucus: Obama Must 'Act Boldly' O...
        * Luis Gutierrez: After WH Asked for 'Forbea...
        * Breen meets key Washington politicians - C...
        * Sean Hannity Battles Illinois Democrat Lui...
        * Fox's Hannity spars with Democrat over thr...
        * Hannity Battles Rep. Gutierrez: 'Not Contr...
        * Luis Gutierrez: Securing border 'sounds go...
        * Luis Gutierrez: Must Pass Immigration Refo...
        * Sean Hannity, Luis Gutierrez battle over I...
        * Hannity Clashes With Democratic Rep. Over ...

        * Obama's Mideast war plan to face sterner e......
        * Obama's Mideast war plan to face sterner e......
        * Syria vote isn't last word from Congress o......
        * Syria vote isn't last word from Congress o......
        * Syria vote isn't last word from Congress o......

        * Democrat Giannoulias backs Republican Cros......

        * George Wallace High School.
        * The solution to the problem of the CTU bargaining with the Mayor is the Mayor getting out of the the school-running business.
        * Andrew Klavan: Is ISIS Islamic? [video]
        * Where's Weyermuller? Brunching with Republican Women of Park Ridge
        * Karen Lewis Tweets for Donations: 'Help Me Make a Decision'
        * Higgins: Conservatives should vote for Quinn
        * Chicago's Bill Ayers says Megyn Kelly Has Very Cold Eyes, ‘Like a Cyborg’
        * Does Rauner agree with the Chamber's position on immigration?
        * 6- (and 7-) digit donors step up for Rauner and Quinn
        * Coulter castigates conservatives and libertarians


        * Quinn still refusing to fire 20 political cronies
        * Illinois Chamber of Commerce Endorses Rauner for Governor
        * Rauner Web Ad: “Cut from the Same Cloth”
        * Illinois Department of Human Rights Commemorates International Day of Peace
        * Quinn Misleads Public on IDOT Again




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller