SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Quinn still has base problems

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.

For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.

* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats

Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…

* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women

Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.

* From the pollster

“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”

* Methodology

This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    So this is a one day poll, and the 14 point lead is basically cut in half because the Libertarian candidate took the other seven points. Better yet the Libertarian candidate is receiving more support from Democratic voters than Republican voters. Keep up the good work We Ask America!


  2. - Watch the clown - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    A one-day, automated poll….I’d guess the margin of error is a bit higher.


  3. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    We already see how this can end because we all know how well third parties fade on Election Day.

    Over half of the fade goes to the challenger.

    Rauner needs to hold on until October, then Quinn’s legal problems will hit the news broadcasts.

    Quinn needs to be up by 5% so he can still lose support during October and hang on somehow. If he is still behind like this in a month, he can lose - big.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.


  5. - anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    You see a problem, I see a solution. Lots of Democrats to bring home, and I believe that they will come home to Quinn. Also, I believe that 12% of dems currently supporting Rauner will shrink significantly. PQ needs to turn out the plusses.


  6. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    === wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.====

    This observation is true, however that’s where the sample in the cross tabs has to really be looked at. Suburban Cook is the most diverse category in the state. Gotta look harder at this one going forward.


  7. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    === PQ needs to turn out the plusses. ===

    Um, first he’s gotta turn them around from being zeroes or minuses.


  8. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    I think Democrats will come home, there just isn’t a lot to be excited about now and the polling shows it. The problem won’t be winning 90+% of Dems, it will be whether enough Dems turn out to vote. The lack of enthusiasm is a big, big problem for Quinn.

    And there is no path to victory for Quinn without winning a strong majoriuty of women. Much more than the Democrats in this poll, Quinn needs to target his messaging to women. And it needs to be powerful.


  9. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    I received a call from the AFL - last night asking who I was voting for in the governor’s race, Quinn or Rauner. I said neither one. Her reply was “OK, undecided. ” “nope neither one of them.” Guess they don’t even acknowledge the 3rd party.


  10. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Oops. Afl-cio


  11. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    47, you’re correct. I don’t think they’ve left home, but I do think they’re considering staying home.


  12. - Apocalypse Now - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Lack of enthusiasm = poor Democratic performance this fall. Seeing it across the board.


  13. - Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    It’s hard to spin this as good news for Quinn. He has a pretty solid hold on about 40% in both support and whether he’s doing a good job. The other 60% are not with him. This has not moved much all year.

    It’s hard for people to suddenly think you are competent to continue when you are seen as a failure after 6 years.


  14. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Surprised at the Cook Co suburbs result. I feel it moving Rauner’s way — but of course I’m no pollster.

    Rauner’s best ad mesaages that neighbors bring up: “Mrs. Rauner seems nice”, and “He promises to freeze our property taxes”.

    Most commented upon Quinn ad: Cayman Islands and Outsourcing Rauner.


  15. - Nonplussed - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Automated calls? Only 29% cell?

    Crap poll


  16. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    NP, you aren’t paying attention are you?


  17. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:23 am:

    i’m thinking of 1982. the base that had to be encouraged was in the African American community. and turn out it did, to the point where I recall working a precinct with a huge line waiting to vote past 7 pm. that governor’s race was oh so clods. however, this turnout worked against Mayor Byrne as it trained the community to come out. which they did for Harold Washington.


  18. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    close…..


  19. - downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Still believe this race is closer than people think. I don’t necessarily believe the Grimm vote comes mostly from the Rauner group, and many of them are anti choice votes that may return to Quinn.


  20. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Yes, the women vote is the key and they’re much more tuned into environmental issues. Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking, and there’s little space between Quinn and Rauner on policy. Earlier downstate poll crosstabs show women, especially democrat women, breaking against fracking. With science and news reports since fracking adoption, and new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement, if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium (along with a mother and child in a TV commercial).


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:52 pm:

    ===new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement===

    LOL


  22. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    ==Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking==

    Yeah, that’s the issue that’s swinging this election.

    ==if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium==

    Insanity knows no bounds.

    ==new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement==

    Clairvoyant now? There aren’t any rules to enforce yet.


  23. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    From my perspective, I’d say Quinn is about as popular with the green base as he is with the union members. Most will hold their nose and vote for Quinn, if they vote for him at all.


  24. - Jechislo - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    I think Quinn is in BIG trouble. Still going to be a real squeaker for whoever wins.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Do not bet on Chad Grimm “fading.”

    These voters are saying they are so fed up with the two major party nominees that they would vote for Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam.

    By November, more are going to be even more fed up, I bet. Although whether they actually vote for Grimm or stay home is anyone’s bet.


  26. - reggieandtfe - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    I wouldn’t bet on Grimm fading either. I remember a certain “Rich Whitey” (spelling joke) getting over 10% as a third party candidate for IL governor.


  27. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    If Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam were on the ballot, I can see how they could be a factor.

    However, I believe the chances of that happening with the Libertarians this year in this race, is rather - uh, Grimm.


  28. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Rich Miller:

    No, its the proposed IDNR fracking enforcement regime that’s the joke. I realize this isn’t a “fracking” thread, but read the new rules. Maximum fine (after 4 violations) $50,000. That’s 1% of the average investment of a frack site (source: IDNR) and well within the cost of doing business. IDNR doesn’t have the staffing capacity and training is still an open question. IDNR (and IEPA) are pretty well known as captured agencies, that won’t change with these rules.


  29. - Stones - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 5:37 pm:

    My opinion only but Mrs. Rauner is a huge asset to her husbands campaign. A big reason he is doing well with women.


  30. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:51 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Rauner is pro-choice. He thumbed his nose at the NRA. He wants to raise taxes.

    You don’t understand the TEA Party if you think they are all just going to “come home” for the election.

    Some, maybe. But I bet the eight percent grows between now and November as the race becomes more negative.

    Now Rich is right that Whitney wasn’t a factor in 2006 because the race was never that close. If it had been much closer, I don’t know if I would have voted for Topinka or Rod, but definitely not Whitney.

    Here’s the rub: liberal Democrats find it much easier to vote for a candidate who does not check all of our boxes than Republicans do, which is why there will never be a liberal version of the TEA Party.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Raters react to pension ruling
* Caption contest!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Good news and bad news
* What's Madigan's agenda?
* Today's quotable
* Chicago filing deadline roundup
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Question of the day
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Panasonic DMC-CM1 Android camera to hit UK in limited number
        * TC Droidcast Episode 28: Android Wear Weary, Go For GRID Gaming
        * NVIDIA SHIELD Tablet, Portable spread some holiday cheer
        * Nexus 6 iFixit verdict: easy to teardown, lots of screws
        * Apple’s market cap hit a crazy $700 billion this morning
        * Sony hypes CES 2015 presence with probable Xperia Z4 launch
        * Worldwide Tablet Growth Expected to Slow to 7.2% in 2014 as iPad Sees First Yearly Decline

        * KuaiBoard Is a Visual Text Expander Keyboard for iOS
        * HP Posts Q4 Sales Below Expectations, Guidance Weak
        * PlayStation 4 Expected To Have Longer Life Cycle Than PlayStation 3
        * Batman Arkham Knight Gameplay Footage Shown In New Trailer
        * Avoid Tempting Situations Instead of Trying to Boost Your Willpower
        * Facebook puts more emphasis on local page review scores
        * Sony To Provide Refunds For ‘Deceiving’ Customers With PS Vita Ads

        * Red Sox seize offseason driver's seat with signings
        * White Sox officially announce LaRoche deal
        * White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Family adversity didn't deter prospect Danish
        * Zach Duke and Adam LaRoche are steps in the right direction
        * With money to spend, White Sox investing wisely
        * Dawson believes Raines is sure Hall of Famer

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * 2 credit houses take no major action on Illinois..
        * Game Day: Canucks to face old friend Cory Schne.....
        * Tale of the Tape: Devils and Canucks..
        * Erin’s Law is a friend to children..
        * Delta remembers Pat Quinn..
        * Horrible Bosses 2 boys are stooges for the 21st.....
        * GUEST COLUMN: Analysis of 2014 state elections .....
        * Guest Viewpoint..


        * 2 credit houses take no major action on Illinois
        * Washington still focusing on tornado recovery
        * Illinois man pleads guilty in child porn case
        * Police across US prepare for more Ferguson rallies
        * Illinois farmers winding down harvest
        * Illinois suspends Ebola hotline as interest fades
        * Protesters camped out at Chicago mayor's office
        * Obama awards Illinois' Mikva the Medal of Freedom
        * Protests in Chicago, Peoria after Ferguson
        * Obama expected in Chicago to talk immigration

        * Debt rating agencies weigh in on state pension ruling
        * Lisa Madigan to ask Illinois Supreme Court to consider pensions
        * Rauner tackles transition agenda
        * Attorney general warns of immigration scams
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court next
        * State to refund $60 million in retiree health care money
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court likely
        * Illinois pension case likely headed to high court
        * Judge: Pension ruling to come Friday
        * Rauner mum on fixes for ‘dire’ state finances, wants Quinn to freeze hiring

        * Power line to move Iowa wind energy into Chicago wins key nod
        * Look out, Groupon: Twitter Offers lets retailers float discounts
        * 10 Things to Do
        * Ferguson protesters camp out inside City Hall
        * Railroads scramble to avoid another winter of Chicago gridlock


        * Obama expected to comment on Ferguson in Chicago
        * Contract approved to build arena/hotel near McCormick Place
        * Judge orders city to leave proposed Lucas Museum site unaltered
        * Obama in Chicago: Focus on non-Hispanic illegal immigrants
        * Hazel I. Lowe, owner of South Side boutique known for elegant apparel, dies at 97
        * Obama schedule, guidance Nov. 25, 2014 Chicago immigration speech
        * Lifelong friend of ‘El Chapo’ sentenced to 22 years
        * ‘Nothing short of a miracle,’ says daughter of retired teacher who survived condo collapse
        * Judge candidates on gun, pension plans
        * ‘Miracle:’ 2 survive building collapse


        * Buy a car and it snows 6 inches on Christmas, dealership pays you back
        * Clean Line's wind-power superhighway approved in Illinois
        * Lawsuit filed by elderly couple who escaped home in Midway plane crash
        * Mundelein man gets 24 years for killing woman in deadly crash
        * George W. Bush to visit Naperville bookshop on Monday
        * Fire department: Natural gas buildup likely led to South Side building collapse
        * Former Bull Brunson waits for DNA results in sex crime case
        * Misdemeanor DUI charges filed against off-duty Chicago cop accused of firing at off-duty suburban cop
        * Judge: Court must act before work starts on Lucas museum site
        * Charges reinstated against Park Ridge police commander accused of beating two 15-year-olds


        * Phoenix Center Strives To Connect With Transgender Community
        * Tim Landis: Foreclosure Sales, CIPS Icehouse and Heritage River Trail
        * Part Timers & Manufacturing in Illinois Feeling a Slow Economic Recovery
        * Notes From Ferguson: A QA With St. Louis Public Radio's Rachel Lippmann
        * Notes From Ferguson: Q & A With St. Louis Public Radio's Rachel Lippmann
        * Disbelief in Hammond after accused cops are reinstated
        * Disbelief by some in Hammond after accused cops are reinstated
        * Editor's Note: Tax And Pension Fix Won’t End Illinois’ Budget Crisis
        * Grand jury: No indictment for Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson
        * Madigan Says Court Could Rule On Pensions In January


        * Debt rating agencies weigh in on state pension ruling
        * Our Opinion: Another big weekend for football fans
        * Mary Auchstetter: The true story of Grain Belt Express
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 25, 2014
        * Lisa Madigan to ask Illinois Supreme Court to consider pensions
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 24, 2014
        * Our Opinion: Illiana project too risky for tapped-out Illinois
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Sen. Manar backs aide Watson over Cahnman, Proctor in Ward 5
        * Karen Cox: Shop for a cause
        * Andy Shaw: Protect Illinois’ FOIA law from unnecessary tinkering


        * Fairview Heights police arrest Indiana man accused of sexually abusing 16-year-old male teen
        * Updated: Coroner identifies man found dead in Danville yard
        * Man on parole for cannabis sentenced for additional cannabis case
        * Women's Club to hold Christmas luncheon
        * Woman to prison for stealing from clients of sister's cleaning business
        * Madigan releases 'Safe Shopping Guide'
        * Teen sentenced to probation for burglary plea
        * Man sentenced to first offender's probation for cannabis
        * Heroin plea brings 3-year sentence
        * Student story: Has Black Friday shopping gone too far?


        * New FDA rules will put calorie counts on menus
        * George W. Bush coming to Naperville for book signing
        * Brown family blasts prosecutor's handling of case
        * Two teens shot dead, two different Obama reactions
        * 'Horrible Bosses 2' embarrassingly silly sequel

        * Democrats sweep local elections - Daily No...
        * Congresswoman Robin Kelly’s Statement on t...
        * Hennepin Steel Mill finally sold - SteelGuru
        * Randy Hultgren tops Dennis Anderson for 2n...
        * Veterans Affairs clinic in Galesburg may b...
        * Republicans flock to Peoria headquarters
        * Lipinski Hoping for Restraint after Israel...
        * Cal City event remembers vets at memorial
        * Hennepin steel mill sold - Bureau County R...
        * 2 more ships in Puget Sound

        * US Senate to hold civil rights hearing aft......
        * Durbin to hold human rights hearing on Fer......
        * Durbin to chair hearing on civil rights, F......
        * Durbin to hold Senate hearing on Ferguson...
        * Durbin Optimistic About Rauner...

        * Sen. Mark Kirk: 'We're Getting Played' in ......

        * Indianapolis Star deems Gary Varvel's Thanksgiving cartoon "racist"
        * Durbin to hold hearing on law enforcement militarization and voting rights
        * Illinois Attorney General Seeks Expedited Appeal of Pension Reform Case
        * SNL's updated version of "Schoolhouse Rock" [video]
        * Di Leo: Big Government Works Great … But For Whom?
        * Will County Board's Democrat majority votes to raise county taxes
        * Schakowsky: Ferguson decision left many "sad, frustrated and angry"
        * Dienhart: Which part of Obama's illegal executive order does Rauner like?
        * Holder: Department of Justice continues to investigate Ferguson Police Department
        * Voters re-elected tax-cutting Republican governors


        * Governor Quinn Statement on Abner Mikva Receiving Nation’s Highest Civilian Honor
        * Governor Quinn Launches Newest Veterans Cash Lottery Ticket - Program Has Raised More Than $11.7 Million for Illinois Veterans Since 2006
        * Liquor Control Commission October Underage Compliance Report
        * Illinois Residents Asked to Put the Tobacco Down - Support the Great American Smokeout – November 20
        * Governor Quinn Statement on President Obama’s Executive Action




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller