SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Quinn still has base problems

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.

For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.

* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats

Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…

* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women

Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.

* From the pollster

“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”

* Methodology

This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    So this is a one day poll, and the 14 point lead is basically cut in half because the Libertarian candidate took the other seven points. Better yet the Libertarian candidate is receiving more support from Democratic voters than Republican voters. Keep up the good work We Ask America!


  2. - Watch the clown - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    A one-day, automated poll….I’d guess the margin of error is a bit higher.


  3. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    We already see how this can end because we all know how well third parties fade on Election Day.

    Over half of the fade goes to the challenger.

    Rauner needs to hold on until October, then Quinn’s legal problems will hit the news broadcasts.

    Quinn needs to be up by 5% so he can still lose support during October and hang on somehow. If he is still behind like this in a month, he can lose - big.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.


  5. - anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    You see a problem, I see a solution. Lots of Democrats to bring home, and I believe that they will come home to Quinn. Also, I believe that 12% of dems currently supporting Rauner will shrink significantly. PQ needs to turn out the plusses.


  6. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    === wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.====

    This observation is true, however that’s where the sample in the cross tabs has to really be looked at. Suburban Cook is the most diverse category in the state. Gotta look harder at this one going forward.


  7. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    === PQ needs to turn out the plusses. ===

    Um, first he’s gotta turn them around from being zeroes or minuses.


  8. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    I think Democrats will come home, there just isn’t a lot to be excited about now and the polling shows it. The problem won’t be winning 90+% of Dems, it will be whether enough Dems turn out to vote. The lack of enthusiasm is a big, big problem for Quinn.

    And there is no path to victory for Quinn without winning a strong majoriuty of women. Much more than the Democrats in this poll, Quinn needs to target his messaging to women. And it needs to be powerful.


  9. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    I received a call from the AFL - last night asking who I was voting for in the governor’s race, Quinn or Rauner. I said neither one. Her reply was “OK, undecided. ” “nope neither one of them.” Guess they don’t even acknowledge the 3rd party.


  10. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Oops. Afl-cio


  11. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    47, you’re correct. I don’t think they’ve left home, but I do think they’re considering staying home.


  12. - Apocalypse Now - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Lack of enthusiasm = poor Democratic performance this fall. Seeing it across the board.


  13. - Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    It’s hard to spin this as good news for Quinn. He has a pretty solid hold on about 40% in both support and whether he’s doing a good job. The other 60% are not with him. This has not moved much all year.

    It’s hard for people to suddenly think you are competent to continue when you are seen as a failure after 6 years.


  14. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Surprised at the Cook Co suburbs result. I feel it moving Rauner’s way — but of course I’m no pollster.

    Rauner’s best ad mesaages that neighbors bring up: “Mrs. Rauner seems nice”, and “He promises to freeze our property taxes”.

    Most commented upon Quinn ad: Cayman Islands and Outsourcing Rauner.


  15. - Nonplussed - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Automated calls? Only 29% cell?

    Crap poll


  16. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    NP, you aren’t paying attention are you?


  17. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:23 am:

    i’m thinking of 1982. the base that had to be encouraged was in the African American community. and turn out it did, to the point where I recall working a precinct with a huge line waiting to vote past 7 pm. that governor’s race was oh so clods. however, this turnout worked against Mayor Byrne as it trained the community to come out. which they did for Harold Washington.


  18. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    close…..


  19. - downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Still believe this race is closer than people think. I don’t necessarily believe the Grimm vote comes mostly from the Rauner group, and many of them are anti choice votes that may return to Quinn.


  20. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Yes, the women vote is the key and they’re much more tuned into environmental issues. Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking, and there’s little space between Quinn and Rauner on policy. Earlier downstate poll crosstabs show women, especially democrat women, breaking against fracking. With science and news reports since fracking adoption, and new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement, if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium (along with a mother and child in a TV commercial).


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:52 pm:

    ===new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement===

    LOL


  22. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    ==Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking==

    Yeah, that’s the issue that’s swinging this election.

    ==if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium==

    Insanity knows no bounds.

    ==new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement==

    Clairvoyant now? There aren’t any rules to enforce yet.


  23. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    From my perspective, I’d say Quinn is about as popular with the green base as he is with the union members. Most will hold their nose and vote for Quinn, if they vote for him at all.


  24. - Jechislo - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    I think Quinn is in BIG trouble. Still going to be a real squeaker for whoever wins.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Do not bet on Chad Grimm “fading.”

    These voters are saying they are so fed up with the two major party nominees that they would vote for Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam.

    By November, more are going to be even more fed up, I bet. Although whether they actually vote for Grimm or stay home is anyone’s bet.


  26. - reggieandtfe - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    I wouldn’t bet on Grimm fading either. I remember a certain “Rich Whitey” (spelling joke) getting over 10% as a third party candidate for IL governor.


  27. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    If Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam were on the ballot, I can see how they could be a factor.

    However, I believe the chances of that happening with the Libertarians this year in this race, is rather - uh, Grimm.


  28. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Rich Miller:

    No, its the proposed IDNR fracking enforcement regime that’s the joke. I realize this isn’t a “fracking” thread, but read the new rules. Maximum fine (after 4 violations) $50,000. That’s 1% of the average investment of a frack site (source: IDNR) and well within the cost of doing business. IDNR doesn’t have the staffing capacity and training is still an open question. IDNR (and IEPA) are pretty well known as captured agencies, that won’t change with these rules.


  29. - Stones - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 5:37 pm:

    My opinion only but Mrs. Rauner is a huge asset to her husbands campaign. A big reason he is doing well with women.


  30. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:51 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Rauner is pro-choice. He thumbed his nose at the NRA. He wants to raise taxes.

    You don’t understand the TEA Party if you think they are all just going to “come home” for the election.

    Some, maybe. But I bet the eight percent grows between now and November as the race becomes more negative.

    Now Rich is right that Whitney wasn’t a factor in 2006 because the race was never that close. If it had been much closer, I don’t know if I would have voted for Topinka or Rod, but definitely not Whitney.

    Here’s the rub: liberal Democrats find it much easier to vote for a candidate who does not check all of our boxes than Republicans do, which is why there will never be a liberal version of the TEA Party.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* It's just a (gun) bill
* How will the strike authorization vote work?
* Rauner admin complains about ACA, warns about federal Medicaid changes
* After Madigan's election, Republicans move on to Madigan's rules
* Question of the day
* Unsolicited advice
* Chairman's association announces straw poll
* *** UPDATED x1 *** "Institute" keeps the heat on SGOPs
* Tribune, Daily Herald give Senate deal some breathing room
* Blair Hull back in the news
* Dem candidates start to staff up
* Ambition isn't always blind
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Yahoo surprises no one by pushing back its Verizon acquisition close date
* Time Inc-owned Viant acquires mobile ad company Adelphic
* Trump’s inauguration broke live video streaming records
* Samsung pens in Galaxy Note 8 as successor in stylus-equipped line
* Every Chromebook launched in 2017 will be able to run Android apps
* We’re hiring a video editor to help grow our YouTube channel!
* Google starts testing Instant Apps in the wild

* Renteria: Sox instilling team-first mentality
* Kopech, Soto among 19 invited to Sox camp
* Moncada No. 1 on MLB Pipeline's Top 10 2B Prospects list
* MLB mourns death of Royals pitcher Ventura
* Report: Yordano Ventura killed in car accident
* MLB mourns death of Royals pitcher Ventura
* South Side Sox Podcast FAQ

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Illinois asks Congress to be cautious on health.....
* Illinois asks Congress to be cautious on health.....
* Illinois asks Congress to be cautious on health.....
* Illinois asks Congress to avoid hasty 'Obamacar.....
* Illinois asks Congress to be cautious on health.....
* Illinois asks Congress to be cautious on health.....
* Illinois asks Congress to avoid hasty 'Obamacar.....
* Harris responds to AFSCME scheduling strike vot.....
* Letters: Attempt at Illinois budget deal is pra.....
* Illinois asks Congress to avoid hasty 'Obamacar.....


* Illinois asks Congress to be cautious on health law repeal
* CPS considers privatization
* Chicago domestic violence shelter welcomes immigrants
* Chicago State's spending raises questions
* Illinois treasurer asks Trump to assure banks on marijuana
* Police dog wounded in shooting is back home with handler
* Authorities: 2 men survive fall through ice after fishing
* EXCHANGE: Open mic night leads solo artists to form duo
* Valparaiso Police now using 2 drones in investigations
* Indiana prison medical chief works for private Illinois firm

* Rauner administration asks Congress to avoid hasty 'Obamacare' action
* Chicago State University's spending raises questions
* Illinois treasurer asks Trump to assure banks on medical marijuana
* Justices reject appeal over Illinois concealed-carry rules
* Illinois treasurer seeks payout of unclaimed life insurance
* Illinois Senate to try again on pension reform
* Illinois Senate 'bargain' includes hike in minimum wage
* Governor extends tax incentive program
* Schock case reassigned to Urbana's Judge Colin Bruce
* Background-checks policy leads U of I to withdraw 11 job offers

* All-day breakfast push no longer fueling McDonald's growth
* Aetna-Humana merger blocked on antitrust grounds
*
* Grubhub's new TV ads: a bid for authenticity


* Riverdale man gets 16 years for choking his girlfriend
* 19-year-old man shot in Portage Park in June dies
* Opinion: The high school where our kids belong
* Rahm unloads on Trump: Focus on jobs, education — not crowd size
* Letters: Attempt at Illinois budget deal is praiseworthy
* Stephen Colbert to host Emmy Awards
* Jesse Jackson: Will Trump learn to listen?
* Big Ten’s mediocrity shouldn’t hurt Northwestern at tourney time
* Editorial: Women’s March may threaten Trump most
* With Rubio’s tepid support, Tillerson on track to be confirmed


* Nebraska state senator faces more criticism for retweet of women's march
* After tweets insulting women marchers, school board member resigns
* 10 wounded in 3 multiple-victim shootings Sunday amid violent weekend
* Emanuel says Trump should not fixate on inauguration crowd size
* Can jet lag hurt baseball players? Cubs vs. Kershaw suggests yes, study says
* White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer at first briefing: 'Our intention is never to lie to you'
* 5 things a pro-lifer learned from pro-choice friends at the women's march
* Live blog: Week one of the Donald Trump presidency
* Shea McClellin-Phil Emery most intriguing Bears connection to Super Bowl LI
* Source: 'SNL' writer suspended after Barron Trump tweet


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Rauner administration asks Congress to avoid hasty 'Obamacare' action
* Chicago State University's spending raises questions
* Illinois treasurer asks Trump to assure banks on medical marijuana
* Justices reject appeal over Illinois concealed-carry rules
* State Rep. Steve Andersson: Return power of Illinois House to all 118 members
* Illinois treasurer seeks payout of unclaimed life insurance
* Illinois Senate to try again on pension reform
* Illinois Senate 'bargain' includes hike in minimum wage
* Our View: Give President Trump a chance to succeed
* Angie Muhs: Teaming up to tackle community needs in Springfield


* Boil order issued in Marion
* Jan. 26 prep sports chat
* Train derailment snarls traffic in Danville
* Jan. 25 Illinois basketball chat
* Woodford County looks at organizing ordinances
* Boil Order issued in Murphysboro
* Charter bus with Marion High students on board vandalized in Washington Saturday
* Rantoul hopes to have new police chief by May
* Man admits role in nursing home sex scheme
* Chicago domestic violence shelter welcomes immigrants


* No slam dunk options as Bulls approach NBA trade deadline
* After big performance, no rest planned for Wade
* 'Every Minute Counts' in drive to find Alzheimer's treatment
* Cary-Grove actress nominated for BroadwayWorld Chicago award
* NFL Pro Bowl adds Chicago Bears guard Sitton to roster

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin, Rauner Denounce Proposals To Repla......
* Durbin hears hospitals' concerns about Oba......

* What happened in week three of the Colonie......

* Transit Matters - Pullman open house
* Thorner: Youth Crusaders for Life Deserve Praise in March for Life Chicago
* Batinick: Hey Dems, time to return power to General Assembly's rank and file
* Illinois Congress members boycott Trump Inauguration
* State Rep. Breen Files Bill to Stop Red Light Cameras at Oak Brook Mall
* These Uptown Kindergarten Students Have A Dream
* Schakowsky tells Evanston crowd: Welcome to the Resistance!
* Pro-Lifers Attend The Women's March: What Happens Next Is Unbelievable
* Trump reinstates pro-life Mexico City policy
* Tribune reporter's last softball question for President Obama


* Honoring Illinois' Fallen - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff immediately until Sunset, Wednesday, January 25, 2017.
* It’s Not Too Late To Get A Flu Shot - Influenza cases increasing in Illinois
* New Authority Allows DCFS to Strengthen and Preserve Families - Federal waiver grants DCFS flexibility to better care for fostered youth
* Illinois Film Industry Generates $499 Million in 2016 - Chicago named #5 Best Place to Live and Work as a Moviemaker
* State Announces Free Tax Preparation for Low Income Families




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller