SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Quinn still has base problems

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.

For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.

* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats

Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…

* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women

Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.

* From the pollster

“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”

* Methodology

This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    So this is a one day poll, and the 14 point lead is basically cut in half because the Libertarian candidate took the other seven points. Better yet the Libertarian candidate is receiving more support from Democratic voters than Republican voters. Keep up the good work We Ask America!


  2. - Watch the clown - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    A one-day, automated poll….I’d guess the margin of error is a bit higher.


  3. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    We already see how this can end because we all know how well third parties fade on Election Day.

    Over half of the fade goes to the challenger.

    Rauner needs to hold on until October, then Quinn’s legal problems will hit the news broadcasts.

    Quinn needs to be up by 5% so he can still lose support during October and hang on somehow. If he is still behind like this in a month, he can lose - big.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.


  5. - anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    You see a problem, I see a solution. Lots of Democrats to bring home, and I believe that they will come home to Quinn. Also, I believe that 12% of dems currently supporting Rauner will shrink significantly. PQ needs to turn out the plusses.


  6. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    === wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.====

    This observation is true, however that’s where the sample in the cross tabs has to really be looked at. Suburban Cook is the most diverse category in the state. Gotta look harder at this one going forward.


  7. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    === PQ needs to turn out the plusses. ===

    Um, first he’s gotta turn them around from being zeroes or minuses.


  8. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    I think Democrats will come home, there just isn’t a lot to be excited about now and the polling shows it. The problem won’t be winning 90+% of Dems, it will be whether enough Dems turn out to vote. The lack of enthusiasm is a big, big problem for Quinn.

    And there is no path to victory for Quinn without winning a strong majoriuty of women. Much more than the Democrats in this poll, Quinn needs to target his messaging to women. And it needs to be powerful.


  9. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    I received a call from the AFL - last night asking who I was voting for in the governor’s race, Quinn or Rauner. I said neither one. Her reply was “OK, undecided. ” “nope neither one of them.” Guess they don’t even acknowledge the 3rd party.


  10. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Oops. Afl-cio


  11. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    47, you’re correct. I don’t think they’ve left home, but I do think they’re considering staying home.


  12. - Apocalypse Now - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Lack of enthusiasm = poor Democratic performance this fall. Seeing it across the board.


  13. - Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    It’s hard to spin this as good news for Quinn. He has a pretty solid hold on about 40% in both support and whether he’s doing a good job. The other 60% are not with him. This has not moved much all year.

    It’s hard for people to suddenly think you are competent to continue when you are seen as a failure after 6 years.


  14. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Surprised at the Cook Co suburbs result. I feel it moving Rauner’s way — but of course I’m no pollster.

    Rauner’s best ad mesaages that neighbors bring up: “Mrs. Rauner seems nice”, and “He promises to freeze our property taxes”.

    Most commented upon Quinn ad: Cayman Islands and Outsourcing Rauner.


  15. - Nonplussed - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Automated calls? Only 29% cell?

    Crap poll


  16. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    NP, you aren’t paying attention are you?


  17. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:23 am:

    i’m thinking of 1982. the base that had to be encouraged was in the African American community. and turn out it did, to the point where I recall working a precinct with a huge line waiting to vote past 7 pm. that governor’s race was oh so clods. however, this turnout worked against Mayor Byrne as it trained the community to come out. which they did for Harold Washington.


  18. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    close…..


  19. - downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Still believe this race is closer than people think. I don’t necessarily believe the Grimm vote comes mostly from the Rauner group, and many of them are anti choice votes that may return to Quinn.


  20. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Yes, the women vote is the key and they’re much more tuned into environmental issues. Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking, and there’s little space between Quinn and Rauner on policy. Earlier downstate poll crosstabs show women, especially democrat women, breaking against fracking. With science and news reports since fracking adoption, and new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement, if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium (along with a mother and child in a TV commercial).


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:52 pm:

    ===new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement===

    LOL


  22. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    ==Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking==

    Yeah, that’s the issue that’s swinging this election.

    ==if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium==

    Insanity knows no bounds.

    ==new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement==

    Clairvoyant now? There aren’t any rules to enforce yet.


  23. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    From my perspective, I’d say Quinn is about as popular with the green base as he is with the union members. Most will hold their nose and vote for Quinn, if they vote for him at all.


  24. - Jechislo - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    I think Quinn is in BIG trouble. Still going to be a real squeaker for whoever wins.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Do not bet on Chad Grimm “fading.”

    These voters are saying they are so fed up with the two major party nominees that they would vote for Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam.

    By November, more are going to be even more fed up, I bet. Although whether they actually vote for Grimm or stay home is anyone’s bet.


  26. - reggieandtfe - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    I wouldn’t bet on Grimm fading either. I remember a certain “Rich Whitey” (spelling joke) getting over 10% as a third party candidate for IL governor.


  27. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    If Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam were on the ballot, I can see how they could be a factor.

    However, I believe the chances of that happening with the Libertarians this year in this race, is rather - uh, Grimm.


  28. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Rich Miller:

    No, its the proposed IDNR fracking enforcement regime that’s the joke. I realize this isn’t a “fracking” thread, but read the new rules. Maximum fine (after 4 violations) $50,000. That’s 1% of the average investment of a frack site (source: IDNR) and well within the cost of doing business. IDNR doesn’t have the staffing capacity and training is still an open question. IDNR (and IEPA) are pretty well known as captured agencies, that won’t change with these rules.


  29. - Stones - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 5:37 pm:

    My opinion only but Mrs. Rauner is a huge asset to her husbands campaign. A big reason he is doing well with women.


  30. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:51 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Rauner is pro-choice. He thumbed his nose at the NRA. He wants to raise taxes.

    You don’t understand the TEA Party if you think they are all just going to “come home” for the election.

    Some, maybe. But I bet the eight percent grows between now and November as the race becomes more negative.

    Now Rich is right that Whitney wasn’t a factor in 2006 because the race was never that close. If it had been much closer, I don’t know if I would have voted for Topinka or Rod, but definitely not Whitney.

    Here’s the rub: liberal Democrats find it much easier to vote for a candidate who does not check all of our boxes than Republicans do, which is why there will never be a liberal version of the TEA Party.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - More on the state grant suspensions
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser/event list
* How can we miss you if you won't go away?
* Question of the day
* Supreme Court justice ordered to testify
* Chicago downgraded
* Today's number: 4-6 weeks
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Human service cuts and state grant suspensions
* Stating the obvious
* *** UPDATED x1 - Double-down *** They really make this too easy...
* Crain's: "Market-based" solution is rigged
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Even more problems for Schock
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Level Up! The “Coming Soon” Edition
        * Grifta Morphing Gamepad works for consoles and Android gaming
        * Android’s Global Smartphone Profit Share only 11 percent, says Strategy Analytics
        * Google pays big for control over .app domain names
        * White House privacy proposal aims to give you control over your data
        * Sony Xperia M4 Aqua image leaks
        * Take charge of your mobile device with the Power Vault 18,000mAh portable battery pack

        * Snapchat HR Director Sara Sperling Departs After Six Months
        * Decide What Style of Beer You Want to Drink with This Flow Chart
        * Twitter Head of Music Bob Moczydlowsky Is Leaving
        * White House Urges Discussion of New Privacy Legislation That’s DOA
        * Make Decluttering Easier by Ditching Items You’ve Kept Out of Guilt
        * Performance Review Rewrites and Pao’s ‘Genetic Makeup': Pao v Kleiner Perkins Trial Day 4
        * Uber security breach may have affected up to 50,000 drivers

        * Duke adds arm angle to deceive hitters
        * Rodon not penciled in for Cactus League start
        * Webb overcame grief during rookie season
        * McEwing proud to be considered manager material
        * White Sox hope Vince Coleman has some star pupils this season
        * First week of camp in the books for improved White Sox
        * Maximizing speed Coleman's mission with White Sox

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * A push is on to abolish DuPage County's forest .....
        * Ex-Gov. Quinn pushes consumer rights, blasts Ra.....
        * Brauer replacement could be chosen as early as .....
        * 'Go Red for Women' raises awareness about cardi.....
        * Medical marijuana grower gives up 1 of 3 Illino.....
        * One budget deadline Rauner should have missed..
        * Gov. Rauner says he's 'staying out' of Chicago .....


        * Bank official held in alleged fake robbery case
        * 2 skiers die at Breckenridge in span of 4 days
        * Ex-Gov. Quinn pushes consumer rights, blasts Rauner's budget
        * Illinois team desperate for wins sees young shooters fade
        * Gov. Rauner says he's 'staying out' of Chicago mayor's race
        * Illinois football staffer sentenced to probation for DUI
        * Medical marijuana grower gives up 1 of 3 Illinois licenses
        * Feds search suburban Chicago home in Islamic State case
        * Lawmaker reimbursed costs for lavish office decor
        * Nature photographer acquitted on charges of taking eaglets

        * Brauer replacement could be chosen as early as Saturday
        * Quinn advocates consumer rights, blasts Rauner's budget
        * Schock reimburses costs for lavish 'Downton Abbey' office decor
        * Rauner says he's 'staying out' of Chicago mayor's race
        * Quinn advocates consumer rights in Loyola speech
        * Judge won't delay sentencing for former state lawmaker Farnham
        * Lt. Gov. Sanguinetti says GOP should court women, Latinos
        * Explore salary information for the state of Illinois
        * State Rep. Raymond Poe to be back at work next week
        * State plan would aid Exelon nuclear plants

        * Uber discloses data breach affecting about 50,000 drivers
        * One budget deadline Rauner should have missed
        * How Joy Chen plans to revive H2O Plus
        * Scopes in UCLA superbug case linked to unreported deaths in other states
        * #ThrowbackThis, FCC: Verizon's snarky response to net-neutrality ruling


          * Police: Motorist in stolen Toyota dies in wreck
          * Theodore Hesburgh, credited with transforming Notre Dame as president, dies at 97
          * University of Chicago offers $1 million for best idea to stem youth violence
          * Teen shot to death in Aurora Friday
          * Most outdoor Chicago ice rinks closing Sunday
          * Teacher dies after collapsing at Austin elementary school
          * 65 years for Gary man in slaying
          * Late-arriving ballots put Ald. Mell out of runoff zone for now
          * Suburbs try new approach in battle over O'Hare jet noise
          * Man fatally shot dead while shoveling neighbor's walk: 'I just don't understand'


          * Illinois Not Alone In Post-Recession Budget Woes
          * Rauner’s Budget Poses Risk For Emanuel’s Re-election
          * History Series: The Importance Of "Poles" In Campaigning
          * Child Care Providers Rally in Capitol
          * Listen to State Week - February 27, 2015
          * Parents, Day Care Providers Worry About Child Care Funding
          * Inaccurate voter data could hurt Asian voter blocs, other ethnic groups
          * Concerns raised over interrogation tactics aren't unique to Homan Square
          * Unique Flavors
          * A Daily Realization


          * Brauer replacement could be chosen as early as Saturday
          * Quinn advocates consumer rights, blasts Rauner's budget
          * Our Opinion: Turbulent times ahead for Illinois lawmakers
          * Schock reimburses costs for lavish 'Downton Abbey' office decor
          * Rauner says he's 'staying out' of Chicago mayor's race
          * Judge won't delay sentencing for former state lawmaker Farnham
          * Lt. Gov. Sanguinetti says GOP should court women, Latinos
          * Fred Hayes: Illinois police support body cameras, but with tweaks to state law
          * E.J. Dionne: Chicago's Rahm-Chuy Show
          * Esther Cepeda: The captain of my family's ship


          * Electronics recycling event Saturday
          * HS Girl's State Basketball: Iroquois West vs Hardin Calhoun
          * Freeburg trustees will decide whether to censure one of their own
          * Karmeier ordered to give testimony in lawsuit
          * ‘Extraordinarily unusual’: Karmeier ordered to give testimony in lawsuit
          * City declares snow emergency in advance of storm
          * February's weather boosts business for some
          * Mall shooting rumors put extra stress on officers
          * Carbondale mall shooting rumors started on Facebook
          * Bitter cold keeps homeless shelters busy


          * Browns, quarterback Josh McCown agree to terms on contract
          * Plainfield Central teacher charged with sexually assaulting student
          * Des Plaines Alderman Dick Sayad arrested on trespassing charges
          * Bank official held in alleged fake robbery case
          * Brewers 3B Ramirez says this 'probably' is final season

          * Gutierrez says he's unfairly attacked over...
          * Chicago Political Oscars 2015 - The Beachw...
          * Democrats Vow to Avenge the Victims of Jud...
          * When Megyn Asks Dem. Rep. to Answer Questi...
          * Gutierrez: I'll Shut Down DHS Instead of V...
          * Gutierrez: Obama eyes partial launch of an...
          * Gutierrez: GOP 'hurting themselves' with k...
          * Gutierrez Reveals WH Considering Implement...
          * Gutierrez Praises Rahm for Making Chicago ...
          * Megyn Kelly's Bias: Immigration Edition - ...

          * Dems caught between Obama, Netanyahu on sp......
          * Detergent pods should be safer...
          * White House says Netanyahu offers no alter......

          * Partial shutdown? House rejects Homeland S......
          * Homeland Security Funding In Limbo, As Hou......
          * The New York Times Cheers On A Nuclear Iran...
          * Anti-Semitic French Comedian Gives Gift to......

          * #RIPNimoy
          * The Beachwood Radio Sports Hour #40: West Side Stories
          * Chicago Voters Want Legislative Action On Ballot Referendum Issues
          * Absentee Ballots Might Save Mell From Runoff In Chicago's 33rd Ward
          * Federal Appeals Court Won't Hear Chicago Pension Case
          * Activists To Protest Against Alleged Chicago Police 'Black Site'
          * Illinois Hit With Lawsuit Over Medical Marijuana Licensing Process
          * FCC Votes To Approve Net Neutrality Rules
          * Report: 1 Million Poor U.S. Adults Could See SNAP Benefits Cut Next Year
          * BP Whiting Refinery Experiences Flare-Ups, Malfunctions During Strike


          * IEMA Urges People to Prepare for Severe Weather - Tornadoes, floods and severe storms can happen any time of year
          * IDHS helps more than 5,000 individuals with disabilities find jobs - Program offers necessary tools to earn a living wage and become more independent
          * 24th Anniversary Desert Storm Remembrance Ceremony
          * Illinois Department of Human Rights Announces 2015 Spring Training Schedule
          * Snow and Freezing Rain to Impact Travel in Illinois - IDOT Crews Prepared to Battle Winter Weather this Weekend




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller