SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Quinn still has base problems

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.

For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.

* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats

Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…

* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women

Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.

* From the pollster

“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”

* Methodology

This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    So this is a one day poll, and the 14 point lead is basically cut in half because the Libertarian candidate took the other seven points. Better yet the Libertarian candidate is receiving more support from Democratic voters than Republican voters. Keep up the good work We Ask America!


  2. - Watch the clown - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    A one-day, automated poll….I’d guess the margin of error is a bit higher.


  3. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    We already see how this can end because we all know how well third parties fade on Election Day.

    Over half of the fade goes to the challenger.

    Rauner needs to hold on until October, then Quinn’s legal problems will hit the news broadcasts.

    Quinn needs to be up by 5% so he can still lose support during October and hang on somehow. If he is still behind like this in a month, he can lose - big.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.


  5. - anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    You see a problem, I see a solution. Lots of Democrats to bring home, and I believe that they will come home to Quinn. Also, I believe that 12% of dems currently supporting Rauner will shrink significantly. PQ needs to turn out the plusses.


  6. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    === wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.====

    This observation is true, however that’s where the sample in the cross tabs has to really be looked at. Suburban Cook is the most diverse category in the state. Gotta look harder at this one going forward.


  7. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    === PQ needs to turn out the plusses. ===

    Um, first he’s gotta turn them around from being zeroes or minuses.


  8. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    I think Democrats will come home, there just isn’t a lot to be excited about now and the polling shows it. The problem won’t be winning 90+% of Dems, it will be whether enough Dems turn out to vote. The lack of enthusiasm is a big, big problem for Quinn.

    And there is no path to victory for Quinn without winning a strong majoriuty of women. Much more than the Democrats in this poll, Quinn needs to target his messaging to women. And it needs to be powerful.


  9. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    I received a call from the AFL - last night asking who I was voting for in the governor’s race, Quinn or Rauner. I said neither one. Her reply was “OK, undecided. ” “nope neither one of them.” Guess they don’t even acknowledge the 3rd party.


  10. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Oops. Afl-cio


  11. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    47, you’re correct. I don’t think they’ve left home, but I do think they’re considering staying home.


  12. - Apocalypse Now - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Lack of enthusiasm = poor Democratic performance this fall. Seeing it across the board.


  13. - Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    It’s hard to spin this as good news for Quinn. He has a pretty solid hold on about 40% in both support and whether he’s doing a good job. The other 60% are not with him. This has not moved much all year.

    It’s hard for people to suddenly think you are competent to continue when you are seen as a failure after 6 years.


  14. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Surprised at the Cook Co suburbs result. I feel it moving Rauner’s way — but of course I’m no pollster.

    Rauner’s best ad mesaages that neighbors bring up: “Mrs. Rauner seems nice”, and “He promises to freeze our property taxes”.

    Most commented upon Quinn ad: Cayman Islands and Outsourcing Rauner.


  15. - Nonplussed - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Automated calls? Only 29% cell?

    Crap poll


  16. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    NP, you aren’t paying attention are you?


  17. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:23 am:

    i’m thinking of 1982. the base that had to be encouraged was in the African American community. and turn out it did, to the point where I recall working a precinct with a huge line waiting to vote past 7 pm. that governor’s race was oh so clods. however, this turnout worked against Mayor Byrne as it trained the community to come out. which they did for Harold Washington.


  18. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    close…..


  19. - downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Still believe this race is closer than people think. I don’t necessarily believe the Grimm vote comes mostly from the Rauner group, and many of them are anti choice votes that may return to Quinn.


  20. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Yes, the women vote is the key and they’re much more tuned into environmental issues. Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking, and there’s little space between Quinn and Rauner on policy. Earlier downstate poll crosstabs show women, especially democrat women, breaking against fracking. With science and news reports since fracking adoption, and new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement, if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium (along with a mother and child in a TV commercial).


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:52 pm:

    ===new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement===

    LOL


  22. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    ==Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking==

    Yeah, that’s the issue that’s swinging this election.

    ==if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium==

    Insanity knows no bounds.

    ==new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement==

    Clairvoyant now? There aren’t any rules to enforce yet.


  23. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    From my perspective, I’d say Quinn is about as popular with the green base as he is with the union members. Most will hold their nose and vote for Quinn, if they vote for him at all.


  24. - Jechislo - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    I think Quinn is in BIG trouble. Still going to be a real squeaker for whoever wins.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Do not bet on Chad Grimm “fading.”

    These voters are saying they are so fed up with the two major party nominees that they would vote for Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam.

    By November, more are going to be even more fed up, I bet. Although whether they actually vote for Grimm or stay home is anyone’s bet.


  26. - reggieandtfe - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    I wouldn’t bet on Grimm fading either. I remember a certain “Rich Whitey” (spelling joke) getting over 10% as a third party candidate for IL governor.


  27. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    If Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam were on the ballot, I can see how they could be a factor.

    However, I believe the chances of that happening with the Libertarians this year in this race, is rather - uh, Grimm.


  28. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Rich Miller:

    No, its the proposed IDNR fracking enforcement regime that’s the joke. I realize this isn’t a “fracking” thread, but read the new rules. Maximum fine (after 4 violations) $50,000. That’s 1% of the average investment of a frack site (source: IDNR) and well within the cost of doing business. IDNR doesn’t have the staffing capacity and training is still an open question. IDNR (and IEPA) are pretty well known as captured agencies, that won’t change with these rules.


  29. - Stones - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 5:37 pm:

    My opinion only but Mrs. Rauner is a huge asset to her husbands campaign. A big reason he is doing well with women.


  30. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:51 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Rauner is pro-choice. He thumbed his nose at the NRA. He wants to raise taxes.

    You don’t understand the TEA Party if you think they are all just going to “come home” for the election.

    Some, maybe. But I bet the eight percent grows between now and November as the race becomes more negative.

    Now Rich is right that Whitney wasn’t a factor in 2006 because the race was never that close. If it had been much closer, I don’t know if I would have voted for Topinka or Rod, but definitely not Whitney.

    Here’s the rub: liberal Democrats find it much easier to vote for a candidate who does not check all of our boxes than Republicans do, which is why there will never be a liberal version of the TEA Party.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Topinka memorial roundup
* Question of the day - Golden Horseshoe Awards
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * BlackBerry partners with Amazon for Android apps
        * Micromax unveils YUreka Cyanogen smartphone for India
        * Revisionist history: Apple chastised for not sticking it to customers
        * Amazon Prime Now delivers your order in an hour, but only in Manhattan for now
        * Telltale Games brings their own flavor of Borderlands to Android
        * EyeEm Launches Open Edit, Letting You See How Pros Edit Their Photos
        * Dumb Ways To Die game sequel now available on Android

        * “The Colbert Report” Was Brilliant From the First Episode. Here’s Proof.
        * Japanese Researchers Look Into Transparent Mice
        * Intelligent Bicycle Launched In The Netherlands
        * Tip the People Who Keep You Sane Throughout the Year
        * Bullet Changes Direction In Mid-Air
        * Amazon, Late to the Party, Introduces One-Hour Delivery in New York
        * Forecast: Workplace Trends, Choices and Technologies for 2015

        * Windy City revival: Cubs, White Sox revamped for '15
        * ZiPS projections underscore White Sox's riskiest bets
        * AL Central looking like one powerhouse division
        * Samardzija, Lester are right fits in Windy City
        * Samardzija, Lester are right fits in Windy City
        * White Sox offseason momentum transfers to fans
        * Samardzija, Lester are right fits in Windy City

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Some Rauner Plans Still A Mystery..
        * BGA Cautiously Optimistic..
        * EqIL PAC announces endorsements..
        * Rauner at IFB Annual Meeting..


        * Freud's goal: Keep Chicago's Lyric Opera relevant
        * George Ryan: Cuba relations will open markets
        * APNewsBreak: Judge rejects NCAA concussions deal
        * Video game developer to open studio in New Orleans
        * U. of Illinois to sexual assault group starts work
        * Durbin: US, Cuba diplomatic ties 'long overdue'
        * Official: Convicted killer slain in Illinois prison
        * Topinka remembered as honest, tough at memorial
        * Senate approves NATO-trial prosecutor for US bench
        * New trial linked to disgraced judge gets underway

        * Chicago couple convicted of stealing state grants
        * Topinka remembered as tough, honest leader at memorial service
        * Illinois employers reminded of income-tax rollback
        * Memorial service for Topinka begins in suburban Chicago
        * Police use vacant Jacksonville site to train for worst-case scenarios
        * State-grant fraud case in hands of federal jury
        * Gov.-elect Rauner says some agency directors may stay
        * Attorney blames couple's bookkeeper in state grant fraud case
        * Attorney general: Quinn, Rauner each should name comptrollers, then voters choose in 2016
        * Prosecutor: Chicago couple bought cars, paid son’s mortgage with grant money

        * Kirkland attorney Garcia quits World Cup probe
        * Law school enrollment plummets to 27-year low
        * Kraft names John Cahill new CEO
        * State crackdown on power suppliers ensnares New York firm
        * Chicago couple convicted of stealing state grants


        * Vladimir Putin is nearly twice as popular as Barack Obama
        * Jimmy Carter praises Obama for 'political courage' on Cuba
        * Obama guidance, press schedule, Dec. 18, 2014
        * Unemployment applications drop to lowest point since October
        * Obama smokes a Cuban on New York Post cover
        * Will Congress stonewall Obama on Cuba? Not likely
        * Fire Chicago cop with rap sheet, Supt. Garry McCarthy urges
        * Emanuel halts private parking on city lots near United Center
        * Durbin, Kirk split on Obama’s shift on Cuba policy
        * Unions may win  HOLLOW victory with pension suit


        * Two Wisconsin girls in Slenderman case to appear in court hearings
        * Police captain talks of getting shot at standoff: Next time I'll duck better
        * A look at plans for Chinese developer's massive skyscraper on Chicago River
        * Father of 3 slain on way home from work: ''We were supposed to get presents and put up the tree''
        * Former Park Ridge tutor found with child pornography
        * Proposed NCAA concussion settlement denied by federal judge
        * Chicago couple found guilty in grant scam case with ties to Obama friend Whitaker
        * Obama had trouble getting cabs in Chicago, first lady says
        * Four similar commercial burglaries hit Irving Park, Mayfair
        * Police search for missing Bridgeport man


        * In 'up-and-coming' area, what's the tipping point for gentrification?
        * 'Uber-gentrification' a force in Chicago's West Loop
        * Illinois Republican: Cuba Agreement "Good First Step"
        * Obama: US re-establishing relations with Cuba
        * Obama re-establishing US relations with Cuba
        * Sangamon Auditorium: Beware Second Party Ticket Brokers
        * Real-estate developer in hot area sees bright future — and displacement
        * Worries rise in Russia as ruble falls
        * Rauner Named Nation's Most Influential Pension Figure
        * Recent incidents cast doubt on Hammond police accountability, critics say


        * Bernard Schoenburg: Schmidt considers challenging Sgro for park board president
        * Brian Sauder: Faithful decisions for the holidays
        * Eugene Robinson: The price of being hacked
        * George Will: A Texas-sized license plate dispute
        * Quote of the day: Thursday, Dec. 18, 2014
        * Chicago couple convicted of stealing state grants
        * Topinka remembered as tough, honest leader at memorial service
        * Illinois employers reminded of income-tax rollback
        * Quote of the day: Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2014
        * Police use vacant Jacksonville site to train for worst-case scenarios


        * Using Smartphones for News Video
        * Colleges expecting crunch on funding
        * Board discusses academic progress plan
        * Weather again plays factor in deer harvest
        * Urbana Mayor Laurel Prussing 12/18/2014
        * Thieves breaking into employees’ cars at Madison County refinery
        * Robb's efforts outside courtroom making a difference
        * Getting together for the holidays — at the movies
        * Urbana school board considers renaming Prairie for Williams
        * Five banks up, two down in latest quarterly ratings


        * Updated 'Annie' falls short on charm
        * Cutler out, Clausen to start for first time in 4 years
        * Boogeyman wins as movie theaters cave to threat
        * How Kim Jong Un became the target of ‘The Interview'
        * Kraft Foods CEO to retire; Cahill named successor

        * Unclaimed ashes to be scattered on Puget S...
        * Mark Reardon: Illinois Congressman Rodney ...
        * The 113th Congress had positives for the S...
        * FCC Agrees To High Speed Internet In Rural...
        * Davis hopes cooperation blooms for preside...
        * Davis backs $1.1 trillion spending bill
        * President Obama to consider Champaign post...
        * Cayuga and Grapeland football players hono...
        * US, Cuba patch torn relations in historic ...
        * Area family receives Congressional Award

        * Not much chance of Congress stopping Cuba ......
        * Reaction to release of Alan Gross, future ......
        * Galesburg veterans facility named in honor......
        * Obama Announces Historic Revamp of US-Cuba......
        * Durbin: US, Cuba diplomatic ties ‘long ove......

        * Obama signs legislation naming veterans fa......
        * Galesburg VA clinic renamed after Lane Evans...
        * Why is he so upset? Because of the secret ......
        * Senate Confirms Vivek Murthy As Surgeon Ge......

        * Chicagoans Urge Emanuel To Support Reparations Package For Burge Torture Victims (VIDEO)
        * Chicagoans Hold Vigil For Victims Of Violence, Challenge Strong Police Presence (VIDEO)
        * Illinois Watchdog Radio - Live on IR
        * Illinois: America’s Greece?
        * Reeder: Why are Illinois taxpayers subsidizing rich sports team owners?
        * Lipinski passes bill mandating national manufacturing strategy
        * Di Leo: Shaking Hands with the Devil, from Ninety Miles Away
        * David Sirota: Kansas Governor Sam Brownback steals pensions to pay the state’s bills. Hell. Illinois has been doing that since 1917.
        * Rahm says SEIU 73’s Boardman can bargain away employee pensions. I don’t think so.
        * Stantis: Comptrollers seat


        * Illinois Observes National Impaired Driving Prevention Month - December designated to educate communities about the numerous risks associated with driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs
        * The Illinois Office Of The State Fire Marshal Promotes Fire Safety During The Holiday Season - Christmas Trees and Decorations Could Pose Risks of Fires
        * Honoring Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka
        * Honoring Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka - United States and Illinois flags at half-staff immediately until Sunset, Thursday, December 11, 2014.
        * Governor Quinn Statement on the Passing of Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller