SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Quinn still has base problems

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014

* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.

For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.

* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats

Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…

* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women

Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.

* From the pollster

“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”

* Methodology

This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    So this is a one day poll, and the 14 point lead is basically cut in half because the Libertarian candidate took the other seven points. Better yet the Libertarian candidate is receiving more support from Democratic voters than Republican voters. Keep up the good work We Ask America!


  2. - Watch the clown - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    A one-day, automated poll….I’d guess the margin of error is a bit higher.


  3. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:46 am:

    We already see how this can end because we all know how well third parties fade on Election Day.

    Over half of the fade goes to the challenger.

    Rauner needs to hold on until October, then Quinn’s legal problems will hit the news broadcasts.

    Quinn needs to be up by 5% so he can still lose support during October and hang on somehow. If he is still behind like this in a month, he can lose - big.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.


  5. - anon - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am:

    You see a problem, I see a solution. Lots of Democrats to bring home, and I believe that they will come home to Quinn. Also, I believe that 12% of dems currently supporting Rauner will shrink significantly. PQ needs to turn out the plusses.


  6. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    === wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am:

    If Quinn is moving the needle in suburban Cook, it ain’t over.====

    This observation is true, however that’s where the sample in the cross tabs has to really be looked at. Suburban Cook is the most diverse category in the state. Gotta look harder at this one going forward.


  7. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:03 am:

    === PQ needs to turn out the plusses. ===

    Um, first he’s gotta turn them around from being zeroes or minuses.


  8. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    I think Democrats will come home, there just isn’t a lot to be excited about now and the polling shows it. The problem won’t be winning 90+% of Dems, it will be whether enough Dems turn out to vote. The lack of enthusiasm is a big, big problem for Quinn.

    And there is no path to victory for Quinn without winning a strong majoriuty of women. Much more than the Democrats in this poll, Quinn needs to target his messaging to women. And it needs to be powerful.


  9. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    I received a call from the AFL - last night asking who I was voting for in the governor’s race, Quinn or Rauner. I said neither one. Her reply was “OK, undecided. ” “nope neither one of them.” Guess they don’t even acknowledge the 3rd party.


  10. - Bruce (No not him) - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    Oops. Afl-cio


  11. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    47, you’re correct. I don’t think they’ve left home, but I do think they’re considering staying home.


  12. - Apocalypse Now - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Lack of enthusiasm = poor Democratic performance this fall. Seeing it across the board.


  13. - Cassiopeia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am:

    It’s hard to spin this as good news for Quinn. He has a pretty solid hold on about 40% in both support and whether he’s doing a good job. The other 60% are not with him. This has not moved much all year.

    It’s hard for people to suddenly think you are competent to continue when you are seen as a failure after 6 years.


  14. - walker - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    Surprised at the Cook Co suburbs result. I feel it moving Rauner’s way — but of course I’m no pollster.

    Rauner’s best ad mesaages that neighbors bring up: “Mrs. Rauner seems nice”, and “He promises to freeze our property taxes”.

    Most commented upon Quinn ad: Cayman Islands and Outsourcing Rauner.


  15. - Nonplussed - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am:

    Automated calls? Only 29% cell?

    Crap poll


  16. - A guy... - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    NP, you aren’t paying attention are you?


  17. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:23 am:

    i’m thinking of 1982. the base that had to be encouraged was in the African American community. and turn out it did, to the point where I recall working a precinct with a huge line waiting to vote past 7 pm. that governor’s race was oh so clods. however, this turnout worked against Mayor Byrne as it trained the community to come out. which they did for Harold Washington.


  18. - Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:24 am:

    close…..


  19. - downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:40 pm:

    Still believe this race is closer than people think. I don’t necessarily believe the Grimm vote comes mostly from the Rauner group, and many of them are anti choice votes that may return to Quinn.


  20. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    Yes, the women vote is the key and they’re much more tuned into environmental issues. Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking, and there’s little space between Quinn and Rauner on policy. Earlier downstate poll crosstabs show women, especially democrat women, breaking against fracking. With science and news reports since fracking adoption, and new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement, if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium (along with a mother and child in a TV commercial).


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:52 pm:

    ===new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement===

    LOL


  22. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    ==Arguably the primary environmental issue in IL is fracking==

    Yeah, that’s the issue that’s swinging this election.

    ==if Quinn is looking to be dramatic he would call for a moratorium==

    Insanity knows no bounds.

    ==new IDNR fracking rules with little enforcement==

    Clairvoyant now? There aren’t any rules to enforce yet.


  23. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:05 pm:

    From my perspective, I’d say Quinn is about as popular with the green base as he is with the union members. Most will hold their nose and vote for Quinn, if they vote for him at all.


  24. - Jechislo - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    I think Quinn is in BIG trouble. Still going to be a real squeaker for whoever wins.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Do not bet on Chad Grimm “fading.”

    These voters are saying they are so fed up with the two major party nominees that they would vote for Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam.

    By November, more are going to be even more fed up, I bet. Although whether they actually vote for Grimm or stay home is anyone’s bet.


  26. - reggieandtfe - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:58 pm:

    I wouldn’t bet on Grimm fading either. I remember a certain “Rich Whitey” (spelling joke) getting over 10% as a third party candidate for IL governor.


  27. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 2:48 pm:

    If Elmer Fudd or Yosemite Sam were on the ballot, I can see how they could be a factor.

    However, I believe the chances of that happening with the Libertarians this year in this race, is rather - uh, Grimm.


  28. - 9 miles of bad road - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:34 pm:

    Rich Miller:

    No, its the proposed IDNR fracking enforcement regime that’s the joke. I realize this isn’t a “fracking” thread, but read the new rules. Maximum fine (after 4 violations) $50,000. That’s 1% of the average investment of a frack site (source: IDNR) and well within the cost of doing business. IDNR doesn’t have the staffing capacity and training is still an open question. IDNR (and IEPA) are pretty well known as captured agencies, that won’t change with these rules.


  29. - Stones - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 5:37 pm:

    My opinion only but Mrs. Rauner is a huge asset to her husbands campaign. A big reason he is doing well with women.


  30. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:51 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Rauner is pro-choice. He thumbed his nose at the NRA. He wants to raise taxes.

    You don’t understand the TEA Party if you think they are all just going to “come home” for the election.

    Some, maybe. But I bet the eight percent grows between now and November as the race becomes more negative.

    Now Rich is right that Whitney wasn’t a factor in 2006 because the race was never that close. If it had been much closer, I don’t know if I would have voted for Topinka or Rod, but definitely not Whitney.

    Here’s the rub: liberal Democrats find it much easier to vote for a candidate who does not check all of our boxes than Republicans do, which is why there will never be a liberal version of the TEA Party.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend
* Can't anybody play this game?
* Radogno: Pass the grand bargain by the end of this month or forget it
* Question of the day
* CMS warns comptroller over draining special funds
* *** UPDATED x3 *** ISBE to vote on settling Urban League school funding lawsuit
* *** UPDATED x1 - FY18 bills filed *** Get out your checkbook, Mr. Mayor
* Midway contract criticized
* Bob Michel passes away
* Another day, another Rauner campaign ad
* Clearing up a little confusion
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Madigan orders committee to take up Thompson Center sale issue
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....
* How long should injured pro athletes get worker.....


* Thousands of demonstrators across US say 'Not My President'
* United aircraft blows tires before takeoff from O'Hare
* Hundreds protest Trump at Chicago 'Not My President' rally
* Illinois schools adapting to new 'asthma emergency' law
* Illinois schools adapting to new 'asthma emergency' law
* Chicago woman faces murder charge in baby's starvation death
* Chicago woman faces murder charge in baby's starvation death
* Bloomington personal trainer keeps first responders in shape
* EXCHANGE: Bee numbers down, but everyone can fight problem
* Ex-Illinois prosecutor's 2nd murder trial set for next week

* Illinois bill would rein in pro athletes' worker comp claims
* Cheri Bustos won't run for Illinois governor
* GOP criticizes Illinois comptroller for buying used $32K SUV
* Effort to privatize economic development questioned
* State budget impasse still hurting schools
* DHS moving into former Barney's Furniture store
* Madigan says House will consider sale of Thompson Center
* Bustos, other Dems demand Rauner pay domestic violence money
* State budget gap could be more than $7 billion
* Rauner administration says Mendoza decision on payroll could jeopardize services

* Kraft Heinz withdraws $143 billion Unilever bid
* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* The 50 priciest​ home sales of 2016 are here
* Rauner finally weighs in on budget to Capitol laughter and groans
* Springfield's incapacity a threat to all small businesses, including mine


* Editorial: Batten down hatches vs. more invasive species in lake
* Milo Yiannopoulos’ book ‘Dangerous’ canceled by publisher
* More than 50K CPS students absent on A Day Without Immigrants
* Ask the Doctors: Healthy diet can restrict psoriasis flare-ups
* Mitchell: There should be no place for shooters to hide
* 22-year-old man shot in West Englewood
* New citizens urged to get involved to help undocumented
* Potent ‘Monster’ explores guilt, innocence, workings of a trial
* White Sox notes: Avisail Garcia, Geo and Gio, Moncada
* 5 vehicles stolen from Libertyville dealership


* Sanctuary movement: Houses of worship consider offering refuge to immigrants
* Thousands of demonstrators across US say 'Not My President'
* Son charged in alleged attack on father
* Russia's ambassador to United Nations dies in NYC at 64
* Uber to investigate sexual harassment claim by engineer
* Teen shot to death in Melrose Park
* Death of River Grove woman ruled a homicide
* Stevenson wrestlers Dylan Geick, Nikita Nepomnyashchiy place at state
* The confusing case of White Sox players Geovany and Giovanni Soto
* Conservative group cancels Yiannopoulos speech due to surfaced video they say condones pedophilia


» Hundreds Protest Trump At Chicago 'Not My President' Rally
» Report: Chicago's African-American Men More Likely To Be Unemployed, Undereducated
» Citizenship Ceremony Held For 25 People At City Hall
» With Eye On Farmers Markets, Lawmakers Target Regulations
» Chicago Aldermen Consider Crackdown On Street Performers
» Gary’s Disappearing Public Schools
» Why Was Rauner Budget Proposal Greeted With Confusion?
» Syrian Family Reunites Three Weeks After Travel Ban
» Man Charged In Shooting Death Of Chicago Toddler
» State Week: 'Balanced' Is In The Eye Of The Beholder


* Illinois bill would rein in pro athletes' worker comp claims
* Cheri Bustos won't run for Illinois governor
* Their View: Why aren't Illinoisans blocking traffic in front of their Capitol?
* GOP criticizes Illinois comptroller for buying used $32K SUV
* Bernard Schoenburg: Dems eye Rodney Davis, who expects the challenge
* Effort to privatize economic development questioned
* Bernard Schoenburg: Dems eye Davis, who expects the challenge
* Statehouse Insider: This is what's meant by balanced?
* State budget impasse still hurting schools
* Our View: Springfield aldermen need to look long term on budget


* Resolution to rename Illinois highway after Officer Snyder passes House
* Upcoming Services
* Paint an animal in folk art style at The Varsity Gallery
* Step team performs at SWIC
* Semi fire closes I-74 exit ramp near Danville
* 'In Service of Venus' show explores loving, dating, serving
* Illinois schools adapting to new ‘asthma emergency’ law
* Lewis and Clark Community College’s Presidents’ Day event brings regional high school students to campus
* Calhoun County wildfire breaks out for fourth time near Panther Creek
* Three Democrats vie to unseat Ward 9 incumbent, an independent


* Boulders key to West Dundee development plan
* Blown tire delays Florida-bound plane
* No charges against student who distributed racist pamphlets
* Gulf not obvious as Arsenal beats 5th-tier Sutton in FA Cup
* Indiana Senate votes down bill to appoint schools chief

* US Representative Randy Hultgren visits ne...
* Hultgren guides STEM scholars through pres...
* US Congressman tours new Aurora Specialty ...
* Hultgren criticizes immigration ban, Roska...
* McHenry County Progressives meeting featur...
* Group upset with Trump wants Town Hall mee...
* Hultgren updates work on heroin, opioid ab...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren talks veterans' iss...
* US Rep. Randy Hultgren reflects on busines...
* GOP congressman appears to distance himsel...

* Durbin breaks silence on Trump's travel ba......
* Durbin Travels to Eastern Europe to Discus......

* Dem Sen Duckworth: 'This Is Not the Presid......

* EXTRA: Can the Cubs really have a rivalry w/ a ball club called the ‘Nats?’
* The Weekend Desk Report
* At The Ukrainian National Museum | Celebrating Women Of Courage
* Thorner: 23 year old Wheeling native launches career as free market evangelist
* Hundreds protest Trump in downtown Chicago #NotMyPresidentDay
* Will County Board member under seige from local Leftist women's group
* Proposed bill would relieve taxpayers from paying for some inmates' legal bills
* Candlelight dinners, rom-coms, and more ways to celebrate Valentine's Day in Chicago
* Bit Bash's Filthy Pixels, Taco Fest 2017, and more things to do in Chicago this week
* Iowa tells public school teachers and public employees to go some place else.


* Governor Takes Bill Action
* 2017 Budget Address
* Rauner, Lawmakers Move to Protect Taxpayers from Inmate Legal Bills
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Announcednew pilot program titled Tiny Boots
* Governor Rauner Attends Illinois National Guard Deployment Ceremony

  
* Samsung takes a big hit in new US reputation poll
* App Store tests favoring paid apps over subscriptions to rebalance its top charts
* Watch the first trailer for ‘Alto’s Odyssey’
* [TA Deals] Get certified in Linux/UNIX networking for cheap
* ING and Macquarie Now Support Apple Pay in Australia
* Instagram VP Kevin Weil joins board of social fitness app Strava
* HTC One X10 gets pictured online

* Garcia driven to reclaim outfield spot
* Bourjos enticed to White Sox by weather, opportunity
* Renteria expects bright future for White Sox
* Top pick Burdi White Sox closer of future?
* White Sox plan for Avisail to see time in RF
* White Sox slugger Abreu eyeing healthy '17
* Tilson sidelined with stress reaction in foot


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller