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Two polls show Bernie Sanders surging in Illinois as primary nears

Sunday, Mar 13, 2016

[Reader comments are now open.]

* For context, the Tribune’s poll (March 2-6) had this race at 67-25 for Clinton, while the We Ask America poll (March 7-8) had Clinton’s lead at 62-25. Things can change fast in presidential primaries, so a Sanders surge wouldn’t be a huge surprise, especially after what happened to Clinton in Michigan.

* With that out of the way, let’s start with this new survey…

* From CBS

In Illinois [Sanders] is leading among white voters and is supported by almost one quarter of African Americans. In Illinois Sanders leads Clinton on the metric of being honest and trustworthy, and is helped by a majority of voters wishing to switch to more progressive policies than those of the Obama administration.

But keep this in mind

This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 5,300 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Illinois, Ohio. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

Not loving that type of poll, but whatever.

Also, the high margin of error means this is still anybody’s ballgame, but if Sanders is indeed surging, the trend is not Clinton’s friend (and, yes, those are hack phrases, but I felt like using them anyway - it’s the weekend).

* On to NBC

She’s above 50, but, again, that apparent Sanders surge must have her worried and is probably why I see Sanders’ ads all over my teevee right now. Sanders has been smartly making the horribly unpopular Mayor Rahm Emanuel a major campaign issue, saying recently that he’s happy Rahm didn’t endorse him, telling reporters that if he lived in Chicago he’d be involved in the “Resign Rahm” movement and running ads blasting Emanuel. As we’ve already seen, numerous legislative candidates have attempted to tie their opponents to Emanuel in their Democratic primary campaigns this season.

* From NBC

The size of Clinton’s lead in all three states directly correlates to her advantage with African-American Democratic voters - 57 points in Florida (77 percent to 20 percent), 48 points in Ohio (72 percent to 24 percent) and 39 points in Illinois (67 percent to 28 percent).

Among Latinos, Clinton holds just a five-point edge over Sanders in Florida, 51 percent to 46 percent, while Sanders leads Clinton among Latinos in Illinois, 64 percent to 30 percent.

That huge Sanders lead over Clinton among Latinos here is somewhat unexpected, but he has the strong endorsement of people like Chuy Garcia.

* Methodology

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls in Florida, Illinois and Ohio were conducted March 4-10… In Illinois, the poll surveyed 1,968 registered voters (plus-minus 2.2 percentage points), 529 likely Democratic primary voters (plus-minus 4.3 percentage points) and 421 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 7:04 am:

    Bernie is surging. He was just recently down in the polls by double digits. Trade is a big issue in the region, with companies having left for other countries.

    He may also benefit by opposing Emanuel and could do better than expected in Chicago. He has some great TV commercials.

  2. - State worker - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 7:18 am:

    It’s unbelievable that Hillary has so much super among African-Americans, especially poor people. We really need a system where people vote in their own self-interest.

  3. - Honeybear - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 7:39 am:

    I think Bernie is going to pull out a small win in Illinois. I think the fact that the people who shut down the Trump rally in Chicago were Bernie people will boost him. It’s the first time he’s been shut down by anybody. Folks I know took note that Bernie supporters stood up to the Bully.

  4. - Honeybear - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 7:41 am:

    I think it’s really uphill for Hillary from here on out. The more people get to know Bernie the more they like him.

  5. - VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 7:49 am:

    Feel the Bern, Mrs. Bill Clinton.

  6. - Team Sleep - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 7:55 am:

    And there goes the chance a last minute crossover vote in the 50th Senate District.

    It would be a treat to see Hillary upended by an “upstart” two cycles in a row.

  7. - Stumpy's bunker - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:08 am:

    Unprecedented rapid ascent in Bernie’s poll numbers. I’m guessing that people trying to build & preserve their lives, e.g. young progressives and folks needing social services, students and a myriad of others, have figured out that Hillary is “establishment Democrat” with more baggage than Diana Ross, and is not the answer to what concerns them.

    Also, this could be the first manifestation of stark realization of the damage being done to Illinois by forces that represent all that Bernie is against.

    Can you say “Rauner backlash”?

    (Sound of Superstar frat boys chewing nails)

  8. - wordslinger - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:16 am:

    62-25 never seemed kosher.

    It’s nice for Sanders to have license to beat Emanuel like a rented mule. The Clintons ties to Emanuel just didn’t allow them to go there, I guess.

    Clinton’s spot over the weekend featuring the killings of Treyvon Martin and Eric Garner was highly conspicuous for its lack of any mention of Laquan McDonald.

  9. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:19 am:

    ===Can you say “Rauner backlash”?===

    What does that even man?

    Slow down there, Speed Racer, this is a Primary, Dems are first handling their business, then they’ll work on the GOP.

    ===(Sound of Superstar frat boys chewing nails)===


    A Sanders surge could very well help Benton, and help Rauner. McCann needs and requires Dem crossovers. Requires. Otherwise Rauner will defeat McCann.

    You do understand that, right?

    Macro vs. Micro.

    If the 50th “follows suit”, McCann’s chances got so much slimmer.

    If Bernie is surging “50th Senate District Labor Voters”, let the other 58 districts carry the water.


  10. - Stumpy's bunker - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:29 am:

    Willy, I’m thinking that the polls are most reflective of metro Chicago and under-the-gun university towns, hopefully not so much the 50th Senate District.

    As for the “Rauner backlash”, by this I mean a backlash against Rauner, in that Bernie’s values are the antithesis of Rauner’s.

  11. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:39 am:

    ===for the “Rauner backlash”, by this I mean a backlash against Rauner, in that Bernie’s values are the antithesis of Rauner’s===


    The POTUS race is not reflective of…

    “I don’t like Rauner, I’m voting Bernie…”

    The POTUS race IS reflective of…

    “Feel the Bern against Hillary”

    No logical Democratic voter is thinking, “I’ll show Rauner and vote Bernie”…

    ===Willy, I’m thinking that the polls are most reflective of metro Chicago and under-the-gun university towns, hopefully not so much the 50th Senate District.===

    What specifically do you base THIS on?

    Your wishful thinking is not analysis.

  12. - Stumpy's bunker - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:39 am:

    Willy, I’m thinking that this phenomena could be largely generated by areas like metro Chicago, metro east, and under-the-gun university towns that are looking to place their progressive vote. Not so much the 50th Senate district, I would think and hope.

    By “Rauner backlash”, I mean a backlash against Rauner; Bernies values are the antithesis of his.

  13. - Robert the 1st - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:57 am:

    Our local Republican sure seems concerned that a Bernie surge will mean less Democrats crossing over to vote in his primary. How odd.

  14. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:05 am:

    ===Our local Republican sure seems concerned that a Bernie surge will mean less Democrats crossing over to vote in his primary. How odd.===

    What does that mean?

    Rauner must be happy a Bernie surge happens, and Rauner isn’t a Republican…

    Raunerites are pleased to continue to hold a party hostage, and republicans are rooting for their liberators against Rauner.

    That’s what happens when a party gets hijacked. Nothing odd about it, actually.

  15. - ZC - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:05 am:

    The problem (sorry Sanders supporters, I actually like a lot of what Bernie says) is he has to do much, much better than 51-55% wins over Hillary in the future, on the remaining calendar.

    IL looks like his best pickup opportunity now according to these polls, but similar YouGov methodologies have him behind in OH and then there’s FL and NC tomorrow, too.

    Bottom line this could well be a replay of Michigan-Missouri, where best case Sanders picks up a major midwestern plum in IL … but -still- falls further behind Hillary in the actual pledged delegate count.

    He’s just in a deep hole now after the South voted, and if the states going forward were winner-take-all on the Democratic side, maybe he could recoup that. But they aren’t.

  16. - ZC - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:06 am:

    Michigan-Mississippi, sorry

  17. - Honeybear - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:19 am:

    ZC, it’s called California and that will put him over the top. Plus the superdelegates can switch to Bernie. They switched from Hillary to Obama in 08. I think that’s what will happen again.

  18. - Robert the 1st - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:20 am:

    =republicans are rooting for their liberators against Rauner=

    Do you really believe there are Republicans other than yourself who see Madigan and AFSCME operatives as “liberators” of the Republican party? You must know it’s really only you.

  19. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:25 am:

    ===Do you really believe there are Republicans other than yourself who see Madigan and AFSCME operatives as “liberators” of the Republican party? You must know it’s really only you.===

    Dillard thought so in 2014, so there’s that.

    What else ya got?

  20. - Robert the 1st - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:30 am:

    You and Dillard are liberating the GOP just like Dunkin is saving the Democrats.

  21. - TeeMac - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:33 am:

    Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States.. This is all white noise.. Deal with it…

  22. - Youngster - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:35 am:

    Come on. Do you really think an old crazy man will be president.. What is he, nearing 80??? Dog track time…

  23. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:39 am:

    ===You and Dillard are liberating the GOP just like Dunkin is saving the Democrats.===


    “Who” is funding Dunkin?

    Rauner and the Raunerites.

    Please learn.

    With your thinking, you should be so angry “Republicans” are helping Dunkin, LOL

  24. - D.P.Gumby - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:52 am:

    Bernie could win the beauty contest and still lose the delegates. In some CD’s there are more Bernie delegates on the ballot than there are to be elected. Illinois’ complicated primary could again burn an insurgent.

  25. - CharlieKratos - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:53 am:

    Sanders is only 4 years older than Clinton. Why the ageism?

  26. - Team Sleep - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 10:01 am:

    Presidents and Governors have considerable staff at their disposals. Acting like an older gentleman is ill-equipped to be President is foolish. Mr. Sanders has showed no signs of slowing down. I am not fan of his policies and positions, but Sanders is a hard worker and seems ready for the gig if the voters put him in there.

  27. - Tone - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 10:13 am:

    There are only two candidates worse than Sanders, Trump and Cruz.

  28. - HPSS - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 10:56 am:

    Gumby, why does the number of delegates on the ballot matter at all? If he wins X delegates from a CD, all that matters is that there are at least X Sanders-afilliated delegates on the ballot. More is fine, less would be bad.

  29. - Reneekins - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 11:23 am:

    To say like sanders that trade agreements take away American jobs and ship them overseas is too simplistic. Learn more about it because we Need trade agreements in a global economy..

  30. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 1:08 pm:

    “There are only two candidates worse than Sanders, Trump and Cruz.”

    It all depends on the individual of course. IMHO, the only way Sanders can be viewed as worse than any of the 3 other viable candidates is if you have a large chunk of your income coming from wall street.”

  31. - X-Prof - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 1:10 pm:

    I’m surprised Bernie hasn’t localized his message here by using Rauner to illustrate the threat of plutocracy. Bruce is a better example than Walker to our north. At a minimum, he could tie into the deep antipathy toward Rauner held by Democrats, many independents, as well as more republicans than have expressed themselves publicly. To go all in, he could mention the $280,000 honorarium Hillary received for her talk to GTCR in 2014.

  32. - X-Prof - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 1:24 pm:

    Reneekins - I think the distinction is between “fair trade” and “free trade” agreements; not trade agreements vs none at all. I think most people agree that we shouldn’t turn our backs on the global economy. The hard part is getting the balance right between protecting middle class jobs and the environment and advancing corporate profits. I agree that’s not simple. Going too far in either direction can hurt everyone.

  33. - Enviro - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 2:52 pm:

    “Sanders is only 4 years older than Clinton. Why the ageism?”

    Sanders was born October 1941, and Hillary was born October 1947. He is 6 years older. But age should not be an issue.

  34. - Mama - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 6:00 pm:

    What happened to the gov from Ohio?

  35. - Mama - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 6:04 pm:

    “Sanders is 6 years older, but age should not be an issue.”

    It is an issue to some people.

  36. - Mama - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 6:14 pm:

    Will someone please explain why people seem to hate Hillary Clinton?

  37. - Mama - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 6:15 pm:

    Can Sanders beat Trump in the general?

  38. - Dave - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 7:50 pm:

    My Hillary girlfriend just switched to Bernie because of the great ground game in Rockford, IL. No Hillary game evident here, all Bernie.

  39. - Blue dog dem - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:02 pm:

    Mama. Like her turncoat husband, Hillary’s allegiance is first to herself, then her New York hedge fund and venture capitalist buddies. Her opposition to TPP came about as a result of Bernie’s stance. She is NO friend of labor, and don’t let labor hierarchy tell you any different. The rank and file can smell a rat out, and I trust their judgement.

  40. - Bernthehill - Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 10:58 pm:

    The delegate count has absolutely no ground when it comes down to it in the end.
    If Mr. Sanders wins the popular vote, but loses the delegate count based on super delegates, the DNC will not allow Clinton to face the GOP candidate, due to the fact that most people that support Sanders are opposed to Clinton’s policies, and, in turn, will vote for the republican candidate purely out of spite.
    This will weigh heavy on the DNC to consider who their best candidate will be to beat the republicans in the race to win the Whitehouse.

  41. - Allen D - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 8:40 am:

    And on the GOP side Trump is leading the pack… just saying….

  42. - Reply to State Worker - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 10:14 am:

    To the person who wrote, “It’s unbelievable that Hillary has so much super among African-Americans, especially poor people. We really need a system where people vote in their own self-interest.”

    Seriously! As usual you think you know better because you are white. Alot of African-Americans have been “berned” by overpromising politicans. Excuse us black folks for being skeptical of promises which we know have little or no chance of being kept.

  43. - LinebackerII - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 1:17 pm:

    Will we get to hear that bitter cackle if she loses ?

  44. - thedriver - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 2:34 pm:

    I will support whoever the Democratic nominee is. But I feel obliged to disabuse everyone of the notion that Sanders will shred the free trade agreements. He will do what every President has done. He’ll leave them alone AND he’ll become a free trade believer himself. Also, everyone knows that when Trump announces that there will be a 35% tax imposed on foreign cars that he can’t just pronounce it and make it so. So too with Sanders and the big banks. I think his supporters have the mistaken belief that as President he can point his finger at the big banks and say “I now pronounce you broken up”. Doesn’t work that way.

  45. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 15, 16 @ 2:41 pm:

    yes sanders polls better than clinton against trump

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