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*** UPDATED x1 *** PPP Poll: Unpopular Quinn essentially tied with all Republicans while Durbin is way ahead

Tuesday, Nov 26, 2013

* Public Policy Polling has a new poll of 557 Illinois voters conducted November 22-25. Let’s start with gubernatorial job approval/favorables

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat Quinn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Brady?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kirk Dillard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bruce Rauner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dan Rutherford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Those “not sures” indicate that a strong majority of voters don’t know enough about three of the four Republican candidates to make a judgement.

* Head to heads are basically neck and neck across the board

If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Bill Brady, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 41%
Bill Brady………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Kirk Dillard, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 39%
Kirk Dillard ……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Bruce Rauner, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 41%
Bruce Rauner………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

If the candidates for Governor next year were Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Dan Rutherford, who would you vote for?
Pat Quinn……………………………………………….. 39%
Dan Rutherford ……………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Rutherford ahead by two and Rauner down by three may be significant, but it’s so early that it probably doesn’t matter much.

*** UPDATE *** I missed it in my first reading, but PPP also did a primary head to head. It’s only 375 GOP respondents, so take it for what it is

The biggest share of Republican primary voters - 36% - is undecided about who they want as their candidate for Governor next year.

Bruce Rauner leads with 24% to 17% for Bill Brady, 14% for Dan Rutherford, and 10% for Kirk Dillard.

Brady has the lead 21/18 with the ‘very conservative’ voters who helped him secure the nomination in 2010. But among moderate Republicans- less of an endangered species in Illinois than other places- Rauner leads Brady 33/14, giving him most of his overall lead in the primary. [Emphasis added.]

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* OK, now on to the US Senate

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Not great, but way, WAY better than generic congressional.

* Head to heads

If the candidates for Senate next year were Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Jim Oberweis, who would you vote for?

Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 51%
Jim Oberweis ………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

If the candidates for Senate next year were Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Doug Truax, who would you vote for?

Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 51%
Doug Truax …………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

He’s over 50 against both of them. Need I say more?

* Two more results

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rahm Emanuel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

- Posted by Rich Miller   38 Comments      


Downstate House GOP Caucus backs Davis over Harold

Thursday, Jun 13, 2013

* Illinois Review

If Urbana attorney Erika Harold is successful in her GOP primary attempt to oust Congressman Rodney Davis after his freshman term, she’ll have to win without the help of influential downstate House Republicans. Altogether, 29 endorsed Davis for re-election next year.

A week after Harold’s announcement that she’s challenging Davis in the 2014 primary, State Rep. Wayne Rosenthal (R-Morrisonville), Chairman of the Downstate GOP Caucus, announced they are endorsing the incumbent.

The Downstate GOP Caucus consists of 29 House Republican members, including Rosenthal and state Reps. Adam Brown (R-Champaign), Dan Brady (R-Normal), Rich Brauer, (R-Petersburg), C D Davidsmeyer (R-Jacksonville), Chad Hayes (R-Catlin), Dwight Kay (R-Glen Carbon), Charlie Meier (R-Okawville), Bill Mitchell (R-Forsyth), Raymond Poe (R-Springfield) and Keith Sommer (R-Morton).

“Rodney Davis has been a great friend and ally to the families of the 13th District,” said Rosenthal. “In just 150 days he has proven that he has what it takes to make a difference in Washington. The Downstate GOP Caucus proudly stands as one to endorse Rodney’s re-election.”

The endorsement announcement is here.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say this again, I really doubt that Harold can out-organize, out-work and out-fundraise Davis.

* Yeah, she’s gonna get some national media coverage. John Hinderraker at PowerLine gushed all over her this month

I have met thousands of people, but never anyone as instantly likable as Erika Harold.

And she was on Fox and Friends the other day

* But elections are not won or lost via cable TV appearances or blog posts. They’re won in the trenches, and so far, she hasn’t been impressive

She really didn’t look the part last week, drawing meager crowds at her campaign appearances. There also were newspaper and TV stories quoting central Illinois Republicans who said they had hoped Harold wouldn’t challenge Davis and would seek another office instead.

As campaign rollouts go, this one could have been better.

* Meanwhile, I haven’t really heard any rumors that any of these retirements are imminent, but Roll Call has a list of possible replacements…

“There are ambitious, powerful politicians who have been around for a long time who have deep, deep Chicago relationships, and when the dominoes fall in any of these seats, they will be free-for-alls,” one Democratic consultant said. “The Chicago races are the ones to look at.”

Local operatives rattled off a number of candidates likely to run when Democratic Rep. Bobby L. Rush, who has represented the 1st District for 11 terms, decides to retire.

    • State Sen. Kwame Raoul has served in the state Senate since 2004, when he was appointed to fill the vacancy that President Barack Obama left after he won his bid for the U.S. Senate. Operatives say Raoul’s state Senate district is “tailor-made for advancement” because it includes the downtown Chicago and Hyde Park areas, which are filled with wealthy and influential Democrats.

    • Operatives describe first-term Chicago Alderman Will Burns, who helped run Obama’s state Senate races, as someone with close ties to the president’s political machine.

    • Alderman Michelle Harris is an influential member of Chicago’s city council.

Local Democrats are also watching 11-term Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez in the 4th District. Democratic consultants speculate that if an immigration bill is passed this Congress, Gutierrez could decide to retire.

The subsequent primary to replace him would be crowded, likely pitting South Side Chicago politicians of Mexican descent and North Side politicians of Puerto Rican and South American descent against each another.

Potential candidates in the 4th District include:

    • Former 1st Ward Alderman Manny Flores, who now serves as the director of the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation.

    • First-term state Rep. Silvana Tabares, who defeated a highly touted labor candidate last cycle.

    • State Sen. Iris Martinez, who currently serves as chairwoman of the Latino Caucus in the state Senate.

    • State Sen. Martin Sandoval.

Finally, local operatives say if Democratic Rep. Danny K. Davis ever retires from the 7th District, it would spark a battle royal between four Democratic hopefuls:

    • Cook County Recorder of Deeds Karen Yarbrough. She has also served in the state House.

    • Alderman Bob Fioretti.

    • Alderman Brendan Reilly.

    • State Sen. Don Harmon.

So far, it’s just wishful thinking among possible replacements. Sid Yates outlived a couple generations of would-be successors. That’s been the case with those three so far.

* Related…

* Rodney Davis: NSA records might be too much information, distraction: Davis said after sitting in on a classified briefing Tuesday, he doesn’t questions the NSA’s intent, but said some might fear a ‘government of intimidation’ in light of the IRS and leak investigation controversies. “I disagree with the process. We need to be sure that we just don’t dig up too much information to where it clogs up our ability to get to those who are trying to hurt Americans,” Davis said.

* Obama aides LaBolt, Gibbs set up media shop

- Posted by Rich Miller   51 Comments      


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