* “Downstate has seceded from the Democratic Party,” bemoaned a Democratic operative a few months back. The Tribune’s latest poll shows President Obama, who split the Downstate vote with John McCain in 2008, is in bad shape in the region. These first numbers are the president’s job approval ratings…
* And these ratings are for his handling of the economy…
Democratic legislative leaders are pushing hard to win every possible suburban seat they can because they’re deathly afraid of a Downstate bloodbath. Those results show you why.
* However, the Tribune poll also clearly shows that Obama is rebounding in suburban Cook and in the collars. That October poll mentioned above had Obama upside down in the collar counties, 43 percent approved, 55 percent disapproved.
The survey found Obama to be particularly strong among women — especially among white suburban women who tend to be more socially moderate. Obama wins 63 percent of their vote against Romney and 65 percent of their vote against Gingrich, the poll found.
Yikes.
Suburban Republican candidates, particularly in Cook County, are not gonna like those numbers.
While tea party support for a congressional candidate has some influence among Republican voters, only 17 percent of voters overall said such an endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a contender.
Fully 34 percent of all Illinois voters said a tea party endorsement would make them more likely to vote against a candidate, and 39 percent said it would have no effect on their votes.
* But that’s about November. Let’s look at some primary news. House Speaker Michael Madigan’s primary campaign is getting some help from what some might think is an unlikely source…
A mostly Latino group headed by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights has scheduled a press conference for Friday morning and a rally for Saturday that’s aimed directly at Michele Piszczor, the young legal assistant who’s actually daring to take on the speaker in next month’s Democratic primary.
Joshua Hoyt, the group’s chief strategy executive, says Ms. Piszczor has refused to sign a “no hate” campaign pledge and is getting help from wealthy businessman Jack Roeser, a strong social conservative and vehement foe of the federal and state Dream Acts.
But Ms. Piszczor says she’s never even seen the pledge, and continues to deny any Roeser ties. “All of this is a play by Madigan.”
The pledge states that a candidate “will refuse any association with or support from — direct or indirect — individuals or entities that have a history of anti-immigrant extremism in Illinois.”
This is about interests. And having a Speaker who is now on board with the group’s agenda is most likely seen as far more preferable than electing a freshman who happens to have been born a Latina, especially if she’s being supported by “the enemy.” It’s not personal, it’s just business.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is making an extraordinarily early move to shore up two embattled Republican members of Congress here.
The chamber this morning began a cable and broadcast TV ad blitz on behalf of U.S. Reps. Robert Dold of Winnetka and Judy Biggert of Hinsdale.
The “substantial” ad buy is the “earliest we’ve ever been up” in Illinois, according to a chamber spokesman, and comes a full month before the primary election, in which both are expected to be made the official GOP nominee for re-election.
Those surging Obama numbers may be one reason for the ads. I’m hearing that Obama is surging in Dold’s district, for instance. Here’s the Chamber’s Dold ad…
Well as if you did not have enough reasons to pick Congressmen Manzullo over Congressmen Kinzinger, here is another one. Adam Kinzinger does not even live in the 16th Congressional District!
I know, I know, I know, the Kinzinger campaign will come back with “Joe Walsh does not live in the 8th Congressional District but he is running for re-election.” The reason for that is simple he did not want to take on a fellow CONSERVATIVE Republican. Congressmen Walsh would rather take on the Chicago machine than go against Randy Hultgren.
You might ask yourself why didn’t Kinzinger run against the winner of the ultra-liberal Jesse Jackson Jr and the ultra-liberal Debbie Halvorson (who he beat in 2010) in the 2nd Congressional District? Well your guess is as good as ours!
The online group has endorsed Manzullo.
* The Question: Are the residency/should’ve stayed and fought the Democrats legitimate issues to attack Kinzinger with? Explain.
A number of Illinois lawmakers have started discussions to bring full marriage equality to the Land of Lincoln as early as 2013, according to an exclusive report in the Windy City Times.
Provides that: all laws of this State applicable to marriage apply equally to marriages of same-sex and different-sex couples and their children; parties to a marriage and their children, regardless of whether the marriage is of a same-sex or different-sex couple, have the same benefits, protections, and responsibilities under law; parties to a marriage are included in any definition or use of terms such as “spouse”, “family”, “immediate family”, “dependent”, “next of kin”, “wife”, “husband”, “bride”, “groom”, “wedlock”, and other terms that refer to or denote the spousal relationship, as those terms are used throughout the law, regardless of whether the parties to a marriage are of the same sex or different sexes; and, to the extent laws this State adopt, refer to, or rely upon provisions of federal law as applicable to this State, parties to a marriage of the same sex and their children shall be treated under the law of this State as if federal law recognized the marriages of same-sex couples in the same manner as the law of this State. Amends the Illinois Marriage and Dissolution of Marriage Act by making various changes concerning: parties who may marry; solemnization; prohibited marriages; jurisdiction; and other matters. Amends the Illinois Religious Freedom Protection and Civil Union Act. Makes various changes and additions regarding recognition of marriages. Authorizes the voluntary conversion of a civil union to a marriage under specified circumstances. Makes other changes.
David Smith, executive director of the Illinois Family Institute, said the bill will destroy traditional marriage and is a slippery slope toward polygamy.
“It’s an emotional argument. People say, ‘Well, they love each other.’ If four people love each other, are we going to say, ‘OK, polygamy?’ Right now, we’re not. But in 10 years, anything is going to go,” Smith said.
The state sanctions marriage, Smith added, because “it’s the best way for the next generation to be raised as healthy, productive members of society.
“A man and a man cannot procreate,” he said. “A woman and a woman cannot procreate. It’s not my bigotry. It’s nature.”
* The bill was introduced in the wake of a federal appeals court ruling that struck down a voter-approved California ban on same-sex marriage. Washington’s state legislature also passed a gay marriage bill this week. So, there was definitely a timing issue here.
Paula Basta is a former Equality Illinois board president and is heavily involved in groups affiliated with the LBGT community. Cassidy’s endorsement by Equality Illinois has ruffled some feathers.
One of Basta’s top campaign promises is to pass a gay marriage bill. Cassidy has Mayor Emanuel’s support, along with a whole lot of others, but Basta refuses to go away and every incumbent hates a primary, so a surge of publicity won’t hurt Cassidy’s primary bid at all.
* Mayor Rahm Emanuel has been working quite well with Downstate Democratic legislators since his election last year. I wondered aloud to subscribers several months ago, however, what would happen to those relationships he so carefully built once Emanuel unveiled the city’s annual gun control legislation. I guess we’re about to find out…
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel wants lawmakers to require that all handguns in Illinois be registered with the state, or gun owners could face felony charges.
A statewide gun registry is key in helping solve Chicago crimes that involve handguns from outside the city, and would also help crack down on gun trafficking, Emanuel is expected to argue Thursday.
Under Emanuel’s proposal, handgun owners would have to pay $65 for a registration certificate from the state, which would function much like the title to a car. Illinois law currently requires that gun owners and shooters have a firearm owners identification card, which works like a drivers license. But the guns themselves are not registered at the state level. […]
Chicago’s tough gun ordinance, which was passed in 2010 after the U.S. Supreme Court gutted the city’s outright ban on handguns, already makes owners pay a fee and register firearms with the city. But Emanuel will now push for a statewide handgun registry because the majority of guns recovered at crime scenes in Chicago - about 56 percent - come from outside city limits, but within the state, according to data from the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives that were provided by the Emanuel administration.
I can see his point about non-Chicago guns being used in crimes, and registering handguns probably doesn’t poll all that badly in the suburbs, either. But, as with Mayor Daley’s annual anti-gun legislative ritual, this idea is most likely doomed from the start. The job now for the mayor’s Springfield crew is to prevent this bill from damaging the city’s far more passable agenda items.
As always with this issue, keep your bumper sticker slogans to yourself and try your best to stay level-headed in comments or I’ll just ban you for life.
* Gee, wasn’t it just the other day that Senate President John Cullerton was worried that Carol Marin’s Sun-Times column would “harm his relationship with the governor during the spring session”? Why, yes, it was just the other day.
Cullerton has apparently changed his mind. The Senate Prez kinda went off on Gov. Pat Quinn during an editorial board meeting with the State Journal-Register…
“Well, it’s not [Quinn’s] strength to work with the legislature,” Cullerton said. “Obviously, he’s got a history of fighting the legislature, right?” […]
“I’ve been here (as president) just a little over three years, and I think that most of the accomplishments that we have had emanated from the legislature, rather than from the governor.” […]
Cullerton said the multibillion-dollar capital bill was “clearly something that came from the legislature” […]
“Well,” Cullerton said of Quinn, “he’s different than those other governors. I think it’s a weakness, if you will. But he’s hopefully getting better.”
It’s not that he’s wrong on the facts. Cullerton is actually right. I agreed with most of what he said in Bernie Schoenburg’s piece, including his positive remarks about Quinn’s much-needed addition of Gary Hannig as legislative chief.
* I’m on so many e-mail lists from so many candidates and political organizations that I’m literally overwhelmed every day and more than a little turned off. So I was pleasantly surprised to see this e-mail arrive yesterday via one of this site’s “contact” links…
Dear Capitol Fax,
My name is Lane Smith and I currently work with some up and coming indie bands here in Birmingham AL. One such band is called Let’s Manufacture Static. Its one of my management projects but also one of my new favorite bands. I am really hoping to get some coverage outside of this area. We have recently performed an interview on the local NPR stations and lots of local shows. I have included the EP that you can also find elsewhere on the internet. I hope you guys like this and take an interest. In the rare case that you don’t any feedback is greatly appreciated.
Lane Smith
* From the band’s Facebook page…
The Jimblejorp once proclaimed that a breed of giants would emerge from clouds and descend upon instruments in the form of man. This band is not those descendants. Furthermore, the Jimblejorp is only rumored to exist, much less tell prophecies, even much less tell them accurately. These are just four guys from Birmingham Al, who aspire to outlandish genres of musical creation and exploration, such as Extraterrestrial Jive, Metalo-Tribal Jazz Splice, Post-Minimalist Avant Pop, just to name a superfluous few. If you see the Jimblejorp, report him to this band for a reward and the authorities for benefit of humanity.
* They’re actually pretty good. I used the band’s EP as background music this morning when writing the Capitol Fax. You need to let this play a bit while it picks up steam, but definitely have a listen…
