Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » More maps for your analyzing pleasure *** Updated x1 ***
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
More maps for your analyzing pleasure *** Updated x1 ***

Thursday, Nov 16, 2006

Our pal Glenn Hodas has generated some new maps for us. You can also see larger versions on his website. Click for the big pics.

The first has results from the governor’s race in Chicago. Seriously blue, but with some Green influence…

Here’s the guv’s race in suburban Cook County…

The Cook County Board President’s race in Chicago…

And, finally, the Cook County Board President’s race in suburban Cook…

*** UPDATE *** SurveyUSA has a chart on its website comparing poll results for all recent polls to actual vote totals. Here are the Illinois results. If it’s too wide for your screen, just head to the above link and scroll down.

And the Wall Street Journal had an analysis today.

I looked at five pollsters that were among the most prolific: Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Zogby (which releases separate telephone and online polls) and Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon. For all but the latter, I used the numbers posted on the organizations’ own Web sites. For Mason-Dixon, which keeps some of its poll data behind a subscriber wall, I used to find polls from the two weeks before the election. I checked the results against vote counts as of this Tuesday […]

There were some interesting trends: Phone polls tended to be better than online surveys, and companies that used recorded voices rather than live humans in their surveys were standouts. Nearly everyone had some big misses, though, such as predicting that races would be too close to call when in fact they were won by healthy margins. Also, I found that being loyal to a particular polling outfit may not be wise. Taking an average of the five most recent polls for a given state, regardless of the author — a measure compiled by — yielded a higher accuracy rate than most individual pollsters.

On to the results: In the Senate races, the average error on the margin of victory was tightly bunched for all the phone polls. Rasmussen (25 races) and Mason-Dixon (15) each were off by an average of fewer than four points on the margin. Zogby’s phone polls (10) and SurveyUSA (18) each missed by slightly more than four points. Just four of the 68 phone polls missed by 10 points or more, with the widest miss at 18 points.

But the performance of Zogby Interactive, the unit that conducts surveys online, demonstrates the dubious value of judging polls only by whether they pick winners correctly. As Zogby noted in a press release, its online polls identified 18 of 19 Senate winners correctly. But its predictions missed by an average of 8.6 percentage points in those polls — at least twice the average miss of four other polling operations I examined. Zogby predicted a nine-point win for Democrat Herb Kohl in Wisconsin; he won by 37 points. Democrat Maria Cantwell was expected to win by four points in Washington; she won by 17. (Zogby cooperated with on an online polling project that tracked some Senate and gubernatorial races.)

The picture was similar in the gubernatorial races (where Zogby polled only online, not by phone). Mason-Dixon’s average error was under 3.4 points in 14 races. Rasmussen missed by an average of 3.8 points in 30 races; SurveyUSA was off by 4.4 points, on average, in 18 races. But Zogby’s online poll missed by an average of 8.3 points, erring on six races by more than 15 points.

I never posted about any of Zogby Interactive’s results, and now you see why.

The point about taking the average of the five most recent polls is a good one and shows why some blogs can have much better analysis than traditional news outlets, which tend to be completely and exclusively wedded to their own company’s polling results.

[Emphasis added. Hat tip: Kos]

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Anonymous - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 12:26 pm:

    Oak Park going to Peraica shows the Claypool voters.

  2. - Crimefighter - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 12:49 pm:

    So why is Chicago bluer than midnight? Republicans in general aren’t making any efforts whatsoever to make inroads up there? I guess Chicago is really not well educated.

  3. - DeepFriedOnAStick - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 12:53 pm:

    So Blago’s support in concentrated among blacks and Hispanics. And (mostly white) city workers didn’t support Stroger. There ya go.

  4. - Anonymous - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 12:56 pm:

    Looks like Mell pulled out the stops for the gov.

  5. - Angie - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 1:12 pm:

    Evanston went well into the double digits for Whitney??! Oh my God.

    My university is surrounded by idealistic hippies (laugh).

    That’s interesting. I hope someone from the press does some serious analysis about the Whitney vote, because it is clustered in certain areas.

    Are these towns riddled with people happy about his past socialist leanings, or just inclined to throw up a big middle finger to both mainstream parties? Gotta wonder.

  6. - DeepFriedOnAStick - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 1:19 pm:

    Angie, probably the “big middle finger” option.

  7. - Wumpus - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 1:37 pm:

    Well, how many people move to the city for a better life/schools v the suburbs? The GOP cannot compete in the city. Then, Madigan and the dems focus money from their non-competetive races in the burbs and win.

  8. - Niles Township - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 2:12 pm:

    I don’t see how you can avoid the racial politics question when you look at the county board prez race. In general, white Dems voted for Peraica, and black Dems voted Stroger.

  9. - Angie - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 3:27 pm:

    DeepFried wrote, “Angie, probably the ‘big middle finger’ option.”

    Oh good! I’m really lovin’ my university town now!


    Seriously. The GOP just resurrected Trent Lott. My middle finger is flying high right about now, too.

  10. - Way Northsider - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 4:25 pm:

    The fact that averaging all the polls gives more accurate results is not surprising. Zogby is off by more than others but predicts who will win better if I am reading your comments accuately. Well, I am sure the margin is of huge interest to those making spending decisions in a campaign but, as an average person interested in politics, who will win is of much greater importance than by how much.

  11. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 5:15 pm:

    Ashur, your comment was deleted. Try to remember that I can see your IP address.

  12. - HRH Weezer - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 6:14 pm:

    I need to move to Barrington.

  13. - Wumpus - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 7:17 pm:

    Angie, perhaps you shoulld travel west of the train tracks to see how wonderful Evanston is. It gives the phrase “the other side of the tracks” real meaning.

  14. - Angie - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 8:55 pm:

    I chose the Evanston school because I didn’t have the time to go relearn everything I forgot since high school (and then submit recent SAT scores), and then try to transfer in at University of Chicago, but I’m realizing that you’re more likely to get mugged when admiring the view of the lake from down in Hyde Park.

    But yes, I know there are good parts and not-so-good parts of Evanston. I’ll stick to my campus for the most part. It truly is a world class institution as far as academics, I’m finding (even if they voted for Rod). lol

  15. - Angie (post-script) - Thursday, Nov 16, 06 @ 8:57 pm:

    Oh, get this. NU tried to get Rod and Judy for a debate of some sort, and Topinka apparently responded but Rod did not. I read it in the more conservative-leaning student paper, The Chronicle.

    Yeah, both candidates are NU alums (undergrad), but Rod apparently dissed everyone. Now, isn’t THAT interesting to note?

    Shame on him.

  16. - Snidely Whiplash - Friday, Nov 17, 06 @ 9:50 am:

    Look at the 13th, 19th and 23rd wards, then compare them with the 6th, 7h 8th, 9th, 17th, 21st and 34th wards. How can you possibly say that whites voted for Peraica? In some cases, a bit more than half did. In high-majority black wards, nearly everyone voted on race. Doesn’t this disturb anyone?

  17. - Angie - Friday, Nov 17, 06 @ 5:48 pm:

    I am so sick of the whole race-baiting thing. Look, if someone with the brains of Dr. Rice, Colin Powell, and folks of that caliber were running for some of these offices, white people would easily vote for them if they ran against someone like–I don’t know–someone wimpy, silly and irrelevant, like Rick Lazio, who Hillary Clinton easily beat in New York.

    People choose who they think is the best candidate sometimes (I know that’s shocking to the race-baiting crowd, but it is true).

    However, watching the drunken goons do the storming of the Bastille thing, I’m sorry I voted for the guy, now.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Rep. Delia Ramirez announces congressional bid
* Biggest one-day hospitalization surge since November of 2020
* Question of the day: 2021 Golden Horseshoe Awards
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser list
* It's #NationalIllinoisDay. Please celebrate responsibly
* Campaign stuff
* A blatant plea for your help
* COVID-19 roundup
* Foster could be handed a reelection gift
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* Open thread
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* The Balanoff SEIU era is coming to a close as state council gets its first Black president
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...








Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller