* I’m not sure why anyone would release a poll that showed themselves at one percent, but whatever…
To: Jacob Meister Campaign Team
From: Dave Fako, Fako & Associates, Inc.
Re: Meister for Senate Benchmark Survey
The U.S. Senate Democratic Primary election is wide open, without a dominant frontrunner and Giannoulias in a weak position.
• Nearly half (49%) of Democratic primary voters are uncommitted in the election for U.S. Senator.
• Giannoulias holds a marginal lead in the primary with 33% of the vote. A significant majority (61%) of Alexi’s support is weak and vulnerable.
• Despite a late entry into the race, Meister starts in a similar position as Hoffman and Jackson. Meister holds 11% name recognition and earns 1% in the initial trial heat of the election, indicating significant growth potential.
• Hoffman’s name ID is very low (25% name recognition) and he gets 7% in the trial heat. Robinson-Jackson is recognized by 32% of the Illinois’ Democratic primary voters and starts with 10% of the vote in the primary election.
Fako is a good pollster, and he knows Illinois, so these results are trustworthy. It breaks down thusly…
• Giannoulias has a very weak job performance grade as State Treasurer. Only 36% of Democrats rate his performance positively while 30% rate it negatively. One-third of all Democratic primary voters cannot rate his performance as Treasurer.
The high negative kinda surprises me, but the “cannot rate” doesn’t. Statewide officials below secretary of state are usually unknown quantities to voters, especially during their first terms. Heck, Comptroller Hynes has struggled to bring up his name ID and he’s in his third term.
Meister also did an “informed” trial heat, meaning push questions. He doesn’t tell us what those push questions were, but this is how it ended up…
• In the informed test, Meister captures twice as many undecided voters as the other candidates. His message persuades nearly one-third (30%) of all uncommitted voters to
back him. Among initial undecided voters, Hoffman only gets 16%, Giannoulias takes
14% and Jackson only moves 9%. One-third of initial undecided voters remain
uncommitted in the informed trial heat.
That still leaves Giannoulias solidly on top.
MOE is +/- 4.03%, poll conducted November 17–19, 590 likely Democratic primary voters.
…Adding… Giannoulias’ campaign manager, Tom Bowen, has posted some of his campaign’s own poll numbers in comments. According to Bowen, Giannoulias’ job approval numbers are 60-17, far different than the Meister poll. The Giannoulias poll was taken Nov 12-16, of 600 likely voters, and had an MOE of +/- 3.9 percent.
* Bernard Schoenburg: Senate candidates’ Afghan views are widely varied
* Democratic candidates for Senate split on Afghanistan