* I told subscribers about this new poll already, but Public Policy Polling just posted the results on its blog, so here you go…
A primary loss for Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is looking more and more possible. He trails Dan Hynes 41-40 in our poll of the race.
Hynes’ slight advantage is due largely to a 45-38 lead with African Americans, suggesting that a controversial ad featuring former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington making disparaging comments about Quinn may be working to Hynes’ advantage. The two candidates are tied among white voters with Quinn holding a 44-36 lead with Hispanics.
Quinn’s approval rating even among Democratic primary voters is just 38%, with an equal 38% disapproving of his job performance. 35% of voters view Hynes favorably to 25% unfavorably.
This race could still go either way but the momentum is in Hynes’ favor given his huge deficit in polling just a month ago.
The Republican race is even more up for grabs with five candidates polling within eight points of each other. Kirk Dillard is at 19%, followed by Andy McKenna with 17%, Bill Brady with 16%, Jim Ryan at 13%, and Adam Andrzejewski at 11%. Of the remaining candidates only Dan Proft with 7% is not in double digits.
At this point it seems the momentum is with Dillard, McKenna, and Brady with Ryan suffering from whatever the reverse of momentum is but on the Republican side it is definitely anyone’s game.
A week out from the primary there are still ten plausible match ups for the general election with five Republicans and two Democrats in serious contention- it’s not too often you see this kind of pile up so late in the game.
The full results, including crosstabs, are here.
Important note: This is not the poll that Fox Chicago had last night. I’m choosing not to post that poll until I can find out more about it.
*** UPDATE *** Dillard’s campaign manger is the first to issue a press release…
“With just one week to go until the Primary Election, today’s poll from Public Policy Polling (on Capitol Fax) shows that the Dillard campaign continues to gain momentum from voters across the state. It’s clear that Illinois Republicans are supporting Dillard’s plan to create jobs, balance our State’s budget, and clean up corruption in Springfield.
“It’s too bad Andy McKenna has decided to make this a negative campaign against his fellow Republicans. As former Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, Andy said that he would unite the party around the issues that mattered. Andy also said that he would be an ethical leader. Clearly, that is not what he has done in this race, as it has been found that he unethically used party resources to bolster his run for governor while party chairman. That’s just more of the same kind of leadership Illinois is suffering from.
“Public Policy Polling is a highly reputable and accurate firm with a great track record in 2008 and most recently, the Massachusetts Senate race. The Wall Street Journal cites Public Policy Polling was one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2008 election cycle.”