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Polling charts, exit polling and electoral predictions
Monday, Feb 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Polling charts can be very helpful in analyzing campaigns. These are from pollster.com. Their javascript is not working properly, so I’m using screen caps. Click the pics for larger images. Let’s start with the Democratic governor’s race…  The trend is obviously not the governor’s friend. The question now is whether he’s stopped the bleeding. Still, his job performance numbers with undecideds are just awful. Very tough to overcome. And his campaign mechanism has imploded in recent days as Quinn has taken complete charge of his schedule and his message. The Republicans…  For me, the question here is whether McKenna can get himself over the top. He has the bucks and the message, but he’s still a relatively unknown quantity to regular Repubs. Notice how everyone is moving up but Jim Ryan, who sat on his big lead, didn’t raise enough money and could pay for those mistakes tomorrow. Also, I just got a call from the Adam A campaign. Apparently Rush Limbaugh just called him “the Scott Brown of Illinois.” He’s been getting a ton of late help from conservative media the past few days, but, as I said, it’s late. The Right was so outraged by Mark Kirk that they ignored a guy who had a shot. …Adding… I just listened to the audio file of Rush’s show. He didn’t mention Adam A by name. Probably because he didn’t know how to pronounce it. * The Senate Democratic primary…  That downward trend line for Giannoulias and the steep upward line for Hoffman are what has the Giannoulias campaign more than a bit freaked right now. He’s still got the lead, but it’s dwindling and there are still lots of undecideds. Nate Silver thinks it’s a two-person race…
And the Republicans…  No analysis necessary. * Oh, goodie. Exit polling. I’m not sure how scientific this will be, but I’ll be watching tomorrow. From a press release…
Fun. * Bernie Schoenburg has posted his statewide predictions, which were compiled by Eric Zorn…
Russ Stewart and Tom Roeser have also posted their predictions and my intern Dan Weber has compiled them for easy viewing…
Your predictions? * Zorn also has a long list of newspaper endorsements in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.
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- Will County Woman - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:40 pm:
Gov: ?,?
U.S. Senate: Kirk, Alexi G.
10th: Seals, Dold
Treasuer: Kelly, Rutherford
Comptroller: Dodge, Miller
- Niles Township - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:45 pm:
Gov - Quinn, Dillard
Senate - Hoffman, Kirk
10th - Hamos, Dold
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle, Keats
Lt Gov - Turner, Murphy
Treasurer - close race between Kelly and Oberman
Comptroller - Miller
- Obamarama - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:50 pm:
Gov: Hynes, Ryan
Lt. Gov: Cohen, Murphy
Sen: Alexi, Kirk
10th: Hamos, Coulson
Treasurer: Kelly, Rutherford
Comp: Miller, Topinka
CC Board Pres: Toni, R doesn’t matter
DuPage Pres: D doesn’t matter, Cronin
- SweetLou - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:50 pm:
Gov. - Quinn, Dillard
Lt. Gov - Link, Murphy
Senate - Alexi, Kirk
10th - Hamos, Coulson
Cook Prez - Preckwinkle, does it really matter?
Treasurer - Kelly
Comptroller - Raja
- VoterUSA - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:51 pm:
Gov. Hynes By 4%/Dillard By 1.5%
Lite Gov. Link by .5%/Murph
US Sen. Alexi Geo by 3%/Kirk 6%
.. Gawd this is fun
- E Pluribus - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:52 pm:
First off, why give Tom Roeser’s predictions any credibility? His GOP picks are just the darlings of the right wing who have no chance of winning (with the exception of Dillard who has Jack Roeser’s backing and Plummer who’s spending his dad’s money.) Roeser forfiets any credibility claiming that Hughes or Friedman or Dodge will win anything, ever.
Predictions not based on personal favorites or irrational bias…
Gov-Hynes/McKenna
Sen-Alexi/Kirk
Lt.G-Cohen/Murphy
Treas-Kelly
Comp-Krislov/Topinka
CD-10-Seals/Dold
CD-14-Hastert
Cook prez-Preck/Keats
- anon - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:55 pm:
Gov: Hynes, McKenna
Lt. Gov: Turner, Plummer
Senate: Hoffman, Kirk
Treasurer: Oberman
Comptroller: Miller, Topinka
- TJ - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:57 pm:
Gov - Hynes, Ryan
Senate - Alexi, Kirk
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle, who really cares?
Lt Gov - Link, Murphy
Treasurer - Kelly, Topinka
Comptroller - Raja, Miller
What about your predictions, Rich? Or are ya waiting until it’s too late for the [insert name here] campaign to issue a triumphant press release touting “Illinois political uberguru Rich Miller predict’s I’ll win!” press release?
- Will County Woman - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 1:57 pm:
CD 14: Hultgren
Cook County Board: ?, Keats
Cook County Assessor: Figueroa (i’m praying for you cook county people);)
- Peggy SO-IL - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:00 pm:
The exit polling is only for Chicago area? Too bad.
Also, remember, voters to vote for all “constitutional” offices or your ballot could be thrown out or an election judge may review it. Champaign County is the only county keeping watch in favor of voters regarding the new law.
I also just heard Rush mention Adam A-ski and Lech Walesa.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:01 pm:
===What about your predictions, Rich? ===
I don’t do predictions.
- shore - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:01 pm:
Pat Hughes has to be the biggest flop of the primary season. for a conservative to not be able to get off the ground given the state of the moderate wing of the gop says a lot about him.
senate:alexi/senator mark kirk
gov:hynes/mckenna
ltgov:hendon/murphy
10th:seals/coulson
- JonShibleyFan - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:02 pm:
My prediction is that no one will ever pay Tom Roeser for his predictions. Hughes? Friedman? Stroger (he wishes)? Krislov?
- TJ - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:02 pm:
Gah, and I just noticed the mistake in my predictions. Obviously, Topinka’s not running for Treasurer…. but, it doesn’t matter, as I’d have her losing in the general whether it’s up against Raja for Comp and Kelly for Treasurer.
- (618) Democrat - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:04 pm:
U.S.Senate-Alexi
Gov.-Quinn
Lt.Gov.-Link
Treasurer-Kelly
Comtroller-Miller
- Niles Township - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:07 pm:
Rich:
Predictions 24 hours out aren’t easy, but it might be more insightful to ask folks (if they can put aside partisan differences) who they think will be our next governor, lite guv, senator etc.
- Tired - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:07 pm:
GOV-HYNES/DILLARD
LT. GOV- LINK/PLUMMER
U.S. SENATE ALEXI/KIRK
- jerry 101 - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:07 pm:
Lets see…I’ll go with
Gov - Hynes/Dillard
Sen - Giannoulias/Kirk
Lt Gov - Whoever occupies the top slot on the ballot (both Dem and Rep)
Comptroller - Raja/Topinka
Treasurer - Kelly/Rutherford
Cook Cty Prez - Preckwinkle/top slot
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:08 pm:
NT, one election at a time, man.
- OneMan - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:10 pm:
Gov - Hynes, Adam
Senate - Hoffman, Kirk
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle
Lt Gov - Henderson (just a hope), Murphy
Treasurer - Oberman
Comptroller - Topinka
CD 14 - Hastert
- Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:11 pm:
I predict Armageddon if Tom Roeser’s predictions are 100% accurate.
US Senate: Giannoulias/Kirk
Governor: Hynes/Dillard
Lt. Governor: Who cares*
11th: Kinzinger
*except for the inordinate amount of jockeying and promotion that has occured this cycle for this do-nothing position.
- Niles Township - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:11 pm:
Well, maybe it is a better Wednesday morning question. Have fun tomorrow!
- 47th Ward - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:12 pm:
I predict the groundhog will not see his shadow tomorrow and we’ll have 10 more months of Governor Quinn.
- Pre - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
-Hynes by 6 points over Quinn
-McKenna by 5 points over Dillard
-Kirk but Hughes will get between 22-24%
-Alexi wins by at least 10 points.
- train111 - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
Gov–Hynes/McKenna
Lite Gov–Link/Murphy
Comptroller–Raja/Topinka
Treasurer–Oberman
Cook Co–Preckwinkle
14th Congress–Foster/Hastert
train111
train111
- train111 - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:29 pm:
Gov–Hynes/McKenna
Lite Gov–Link/Murphy
Comptroller–Raja/Topinka
Treasurer–Oberman
Cook Co–Preckwinkle
14th Congress–Foster/Hastert
Forgot on the 1st post
Senate: Hoffman/Kirk
train111
- Kristen - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:30 pm:
Peggy, DeKalb County (where I’m from) has tried educating the public on that issue… hopefully the judges are informed. Our Clerk said that the machines (we have the scantron type) will alert the judge that you didn’t vote in a race, and that the judge just has to come clear the message, but that the rest of the ballot will still be counted. Hopefully that’s actually what happens. :/
- Niles Township - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:30 pm:
By the way, I got a “party” robocall for Alexi, Quinn and O’Brien.
- dupage progressive - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:36 pm:
Governor — Hynes/ Dillard
US Senate — Hoffman/ Kirk
Lt. Gov. — Link/ Murphy
Treasurer — Kelly/Rutherford
Comptroller - Miller/ Topinka
Cook Co. Pres. — Preckwinkle - landslide!!
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:37 pm:
Sen: Alexi, Kirk
Gov: Quinn, McKenna
Lt. Gov: (meh…)
AG: Madigan, some poor sap
SOS: White, another poor sap
Compt: Raja, JBT
Treas: Kelly, Rutherford
- VanillaMan - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:42 pm:
These are not who I wish will win…
Gov - Quinn/McKenna
Senate - Giannoulais/Kirk
10th - Hamos/Dold
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle/Keats
Lt Gov - Link/Murphy
Treasurer - Kelly/Rutherford
Comptroller - Miller/Topinka
I also hope I am wrong!
- Team Sleep - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:45 pm:
Gov: Hynes, Dillard
Lt. Gov: Turner, Murphy
Comptroller: Krishnamoorthi, Topinka
Treasurer: Oberman
SGOP: Kirk
SDem: Alexi
8th CD GOP: Beveridge (sp?)
10th CD GOP: Dold
10th CD Dem: Seals
11th CD GOP: Kinzinger
14th CD GOP: Hultgren
18th CD Dem: Kirner
Cook Co. Prez GOP: Keats
Cook Co. Prez Dem: Preckwinkle
Pingback Instapundit » Blog Archive » A RELIABLE READER EMAILS that Rush Limbaugh just endorsed Tea Party-backed Illinois Gubernatorial ca… - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:49 pm:
[…] UPDATE: More here, including a poll that suggests it’ll still be hard for Andrezejewski to make it, but who knows? […]
- Big Policy Nerd - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:51 pm:
Gov: Quinn 53%-47%
GOP: Dilard 24%, McKenna 22%, Brady 20%, Ryan 20%, Proft 8%, Adam A 8%
Cook County Pres: Periwinckle
Lt Gov: Turner, Murphy
Comp: Raja
Treasurer: Oberman
10th CD: Hamos over Seals
African-American turnout carry’s it for Quinn and he wins downstate. Periwinckle wins with at least 48% Brown nor Stroger fail to break 20%
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:53 pm:
The one thing I know for sure (?) - Look for Preckwinkle to get real close to 50% in a four way race …
- LaurenA - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:54 pm:
ov - Quinn/McKenna
Senate - HOFFMAN/Kirk
10th - Hamos/Dold
Lt Gov - Link/Murphy
Treasurer - Oberman/Rutherford
Comptroller - Miller/Topinka
And dare I say it again…HOFFMAN, HOFFMAN
- Big Policy Nerd - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:54 pm:
p.s.
@ Rich
Rich, my apologies but I forgot… Are you pulling a DEM or GOP ballot this round. If it is a DEM ballot, will you at least come clean and tell us if you are going to vote for Ricky “Hollywood” Hendon? Inquiring minds want to know.
- Bakersfield - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:56 pm:
I am predicting Roeser had a few too many glasses of wine before the Hughes pick (or did we not want snark here)?
- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 2:57 pm:
U.S. Senate (percentages reflect chance of winning, not vote totals)
Giannoulias (40%), Hoffman (30%), Jackson (20%)
IL-03
Lipinski (98%), Mujica (2%)
IL-07
Davis (90%), other 10% with Ascot being the most likely
IL-10
Hamos (65%), Seals (35%)
Gov
Hynes (55%), Quinn (45%)
Lt. Gov. Turner (35%), Cohen (30%), Boland (12%), Link (11%), Castillo(10%), Hendon (2%)
Comp
Raja (40%), Miller (30%), Krislov (20%)
Treasurer
Kelly (97%), Oberman (3%)
President of Cook County Board
Preckwinkle (56%), O’Brien (28%), Brown (20%), Stroger (6%)
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:01 pm:
Sen - Kirk, Hoffman
Guv - McKenna, Hynes
LG - Murphy, Turner
AG, SOS - Lisa, Jesse vs. Dr. Seuss’ “thing 1 & thing 2″ or two candidates unknown outside their families, one of those two options…
Comp - Raja, jbt
Trea - Kelly, Rutherford
14th - Hultgren, Foster
Cook County Prez - As stated, Preckwinkle
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:02 pm:
I’m pulling an R ballot this year.
- 4 percent - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:05 pm:
remember pollster.com is a compilation of all other polls so its not a new poll. It probably includes the Tribune’s orginal poll inflating Ryan’s numbers.
Senate: Kirk/Alexi
Governor: Dillard/Quinn
Lt. Gov: Plummer/Cohen
I will go out on a limb and rank the GOP as Dillard, Brady, McKenna, Andgrweski, Ryan, Proft.
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:06 pm:
Senate: Hoffman, Kirk
Gov: Hynes, Brady
Lt. Gov: Cohen, Plummer
10: Seals, Crofts
Comptroller: Topinka and D doesn’t matter
Treasurer: Oberman, Rutherford
7th Senate: Steans
- Chicago Cynic - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:10 pm:
47, don’t be a wus. What are your predictions for real? Inquiring minds that count on your wisdom want to know.
- John Bambenek - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:13 pm:
Latest poll in this compilation… 1/25.
Do I need to list all the things happened since then, Walesa endorsement, Beck & Rush today, and that’s just for Adam.
Big news on both McKenna and Dillard too (largely negative).
- 47th Ward - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
I hate predictions Cynic. So the following are who I hope will win more than who I know will win:
Giannoulias/Lowery
Hynes/Proft
Turner/Plummer
Raja/Topinka
Oberman
Preckwinkle/Keats
And Ann Williams for 11th St. Rep.
Regardless, I am on record predicting the start of Spring; March 21. And pitchers and catchers report this month.
- Pot calling kettle - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
It’s gotta be tough for Rich. The best person for the office would probably make a lot less news, resulting in less traffic to the web site.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:17 pm:
That’s why I’m voting for Proft. lol
- Anon - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:23 pm:
Gov: Quinn/McKenna
Sen: Alexi/KIrk
Lt. Gov: Link/Murphy
Cook Co Board Pres: Preckwinkle
Comptroller: Miller/Topinka
Treasurer: Kelly
10th: Seals
Ann Williams beats the two dudes.
- John Bambenek - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:25 pm:
Rich-
ROFL!
- Peggy SO-IL - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:31 pm:
Kristen. That’s good news. I saw a wire article in the BND about the possible complications tomorrow.
- Anon - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:41 pm:
US Senate — Giannoulias/ Kirk
Governor — Hynes/ Dillard
Lt. Gov. — Link/ Cook
Treasurer — Kelly/Rutherford
Comptroller - Miller/ Topinka
Cook Co. Pres. — Preckwinkle/ Keats
DuPage Co. Chair. - Cronin
10th CD - Hamos/ Coulson
- joe the IL plumber - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:47 pm:
Gov: Quinn/ McKenna
- joe the IL plumber - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:48 pm:
Gov: Quinn/ McKenna
Lt. Gov: Link/ Murphy
Treasurer: Kelly/ Rutherford
Comptroller: Miller/ JBT
- Ela Observer - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:48 pm:
CD 8: Bean vs Rodriguez
CD 10: Seals vs Coulson
- Louis G. Atsaves - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 3:58 pm:
For those races that appear on my ballot:
U.S. Senate: Giannoulias/Kirk
Governor: Hynes/Dillard
Lt. Governor: Link/Murphy
Attorney General: Madigan/Kim*
Secretary of State: White/Rodriguez*
Treasurer: Oberman/Rutherford
Comptroller: Miller/Topinka
10th CD: Seals/Dold
I decided to really go out on the limb and include all uncontested races.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:01 pm:
Rich,
How about what is the “scariest” ticket each party can have … “scary” good or “scary” scary …
Like a Hoffman, Hynes, Turner, Lisa, Jesse, et al for the Dems ….
- Eric Zorn - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:02 pm:
On Roeser’s radio program last night — which I try never to miss because you really never do know what he might say! — he couched these “predictions” as preferences. I’m usually not shy about political predictions but in the two big races — GooberFest — all I’ve got are coin-flip style guesses. Quinn v. Proft would make for the best copy, though….
- Oswego Joe - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:03 pm:
Old Guard will get out the vote for the GOP
Gov McKenna
Lt Gov Murphy
US Sen Kirk
Comptroller Topinka
CD 14 Hastert
So much for reform in Illinois if this proves correct. I would like to believe the Adam A. surge but am not convinced.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:04 pm:
Joe… find another town! …lol
- PalosParkBob - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:12 pm:
Gov-Hynes/McKenna
Surrogates for two influential Dem families. Should jointly write a book, “Making It On Your Own in Illinois Politics”. lol
Lt Gov-Link/Plummer
I just don’t see Murphy clinging tight enough to McKenna’ coattails, even though he’s been speaking for McKenna in his radio ads.Does McKenna have laryngitas, or just does he not have anything to say in ads and debates?
Senator: Gianoullis/Kirk
Broadway Bank will catch up with Alexi in the General, not the primary. Kirk’s radical left wing postions on abortion and gay rights might actually be an asset in November.
Comptroller: Miller/Topinka
Judy shows that a raspy cigarettes and whisky voice and being a political combine retread beats youth and competence in people like Dodge every time in the GOP. Miller’s bright, attractive and trustworthy. If I vote for any Dem, it’ll be for him against Judy.
Cook County Pres: Preckwinkle v. Garrido
Can African American Chicago Alderman beat bright, young Hispanic Policeman/lawyer, who has “Dem” written all over him, in Cook County? Should be interesting.
- conventional wisdom - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:31 pm:
Quinn & McKenna
Hoffman & Kirk
Link & Murphy
Miller & Judy
Kelly & Rutherford
Preckwinkle
- Anonymous - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:38 pm:
for gov. I would say it will be Hynes & Dillard who win the primary.
- Ben S. - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 4:42 pm:
All the major races on my ballot:
Senate: Kirk/Alexi G.
Governor: Adam/Hynes (what the heck, the beck/rush endorsements might do it, and there’s no clear front-runner on the GOP side)
Lt. Governor: Murphy/Cohen
Treasurer: Kelly
Comptroller: Topinka/Miller
10th Congress: Hamos/Dold
- ironman - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:17 pm:
Senate: kirk/ alexi G
Gov: Dillard/hynes
Lt. Gov: Plummer/Cohen
Treas.: Rutherford/ Kelly
Comp.: Topinka/ Muller
I truely believe with all of Mckenna’s tricks and money, Murphy and Mckenna will be out. I think dillard will win by 3% and not many people believe plummer can win against the machine, but he has a strong support up north as well as down south. Sorry, Mckenna, Murphy…your corruption will end feb 2, 2010
- True Observer - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:25 pm:
DuPage Board Chair - Debra Olson
- scoot - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:45 pm:
Gov - Quinn & Ryan
Lt Gov - Turner & Murphy
Senate - Alexi & Kirk
Comp. - Miller & Topinka
Treas - Kelly & Rutherford
Quinn is the Gov and will win a close. Ryan will do very well in DuPage and that will put him over the top..there is no downstate candidate so it will be split up..Mckenna didn’t show up to close the deal, and Dillard peaked a little to late.
I do think that if theis were a March Primary…then Hynes and Dillard would win.
- Anonymous - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:52 pm:
Senate: Kirk/Alexi
Gov: Ryan/Hynes
Lt. Gov: Murphy/Link
10: Dold/Hamos
14: Hastert
11: Kinzinger
8: Honestly, no clue; none of them have done anything to establish themselves as the frontrunner…I’ll guess here and say Rodriguez just because she has the most endorsements, is a woman, and began her campaign the earliest, but other than that I have no other real info to base my prediction off.
County Board: Keats/Preckwinkle (On a side note, I know its a long shot, but I really hope Roger can pull this one off, he will get a good deal of money invested into his campaign and with high suburban turnout and a none-inspired urban electorate…maybe, just maybe; depends on if his strategy, targeting and message are executed/delivered properly.)
DuPage: Cronin
Comptroller: Topinka/Miller
Treasuer: Kelly
We’ll see how these playout.
- TW - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 5:53 pm:
Sorry Rich, forgot to sign my last post.
Senate: Kirk/Alexi
Gov: Ryan/Hynes
Lt. Gov: Murphy/Link
10: Dold/Hamos
14: Hastert
11: Kinzinger
8: Honestly, no clue; none of them have done anything to establish themselves as the frontrunner…I’ll guess here and say Rodriguez just because she has the most endorsements, is a woman, and began her campaign the earliest, but other than that I have no other real info to base my prediction off.
County Board: Keats/Preckwinkle (On a side note, I know its a long shot, but I really hope Roger can pull this one off, he will get a good deal of money invested into his campaign and with high suburban turnout and a none-inspired urban electorate…maybe, just maybe; depends on if his strategy, targeting and message are executed/delivered properly.)
DuPage: Cronin
Comptroller: Topinka/Miller
Treasuer: Kelly
We’ll see how these playout.
- Bookworm - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 7:12 pm:
I don’t watch TV at home — I’d rather spend my limited funds on internet than cable. Normally, I only watch TV when I am visiting someone else’s home, or stuck in a doctor’s office, quick-lube station, etc. This means I have been, mercifully, spared most of the campaign ads
Well, today I was in a situation where I was able to watch about 2 hours of daytime TV, and in that time, saw McKenna’s ad slamming Dillard for endorsing Obama at least half a dozen times. Maybe more than that. I also saw, twice, Brady’s ad slamming Dillard for the same thing.
If Dillard has been getting hammered that badly downstate (and God knows how much in the Chicago media market) then, sad to say, he’s probably toast. McKenna will probably win by 3-4 percent, with Dillard and Ryan second and third.
The only commercial I saw that turned me off more than McKenna’s, was the NBC promo for Celebrity Apprentice with Rod!
Other races: Hynes pulls off the gov win on the Dem side; Kirk and Alexi G. for Senate; Murphy and Cohen for Lt. Gov; and that’s as far as my crystal ball can see
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 7:19 pm:
I’ll be the first and maybe only one to say it:
If past trends among black Democrats as late deciders hold, Hoffman will come in third and this is actually a race between Alexi and Cheryle Jackson.
If you think that’s far-fetched, remember that Joyce Washington ran an invisible campaign for Lt. Governor in 2002, and still came in second to Pat Quinn with 32% of the vote in a three-way race.
- RMW Stanford - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 7:53 pm:
Gov. Hynes & Brady
Senate Hoffman & Kirk
Lt. Gov no clue on the Dem side & Murphy
- Anon - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 8:30 pm:
Democrats
10th Dist - too close. Three way split with Richardson as a big surprise.
Gov - Hines by 3 points
Senate - Hoffman by 2 points. Close 3 way race.
- Suburban Republican - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 8:44 pm:
Why not include everything?!
Gov: Pat Quinn vs. Kirk Dillard
Lt. Gov: Scott Lee Cohen vs. Matt Murphy
AG: Lisa Madigan vs. Steve Kim
SOS: Jesse White vs. Robert Enriquez
Comptroller: David Miller vs. Judy Baar Topinka
Treasurer: Robin Kelly vs. Dan Rutherford
Cook County Prez: Toni Preckwinkle vs. Rogers Keats
Cook County Board of Review: Brendan Houlihan vs. Dan Patlak
U.S. Senate: Alexi Giannoulias vs. Mark Kirk
CD 1: Bobby Rush
CD 2: Jesse Jackson Jr. vs. Issac Hayes
CD 3: Dan Lipinksi vs. Michael Bendas
CD 4: Luis Gutierrez
CD 5: Mike Quigley vs. David Ratowitz
CD 6: Ben Lowe vs. Peter Roskam
CD 7: Danny Davis vs. Mark Weiman
CD 8: Melissa Bean vs. Maria Rodriguez
CD 9: Jan Schakowsky vs. Joel Pollak
CD 10: Dan Seals vs. Robert Dold
CD 11: Debbie Halvorson vs. Adam Kinziger
CD 12: Jerry Costello vs. Theresa Kormos
CD 13: Scott Harper vs. Judy Biggert
CD 14: Bill Foster vs. Ethan Hastert
CD 15: David Gill vs. Tim Johnson
CD 16: George Gaulrapp vs. Don Manzullo
CD 17: Phil Hare vs. Bobby Schilling
CD 18: D.K. Hirner vs. Aaron Schock
CD 19: Tim Bagwell vs. John Shimkus
- Sam E. - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 8:56 pm:
Gov: Dem, Quinn by less that 2 points
GOP, Adam A. in an absolute stunner
Senate: Alexi (all three bunched very close,) Kirk
Lt. Gov: Cohen, Murphy
Cook Pres: Preckwinkle (GOP doesn’t matter unless stroger wins.)
- Conservative Republican - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 8:58 pm:
Weber made a mistake. Tom Roeser “agreed” with Stewart that Keats will win the primary, but likes Garrido as a candidate.
- ourMagician - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 9:02 pm:
Gov-Hynes/McKenna (belch)
Senate-Alexi/Kirk (Kirk in the fall)
Lt. Gov-Cohen/Murphy
Treasurer-Kelly/Rutherford (Rutherford in the fall-Alexi’s banking issues will hurt her)
Comptroller-Miller/Topinka
- votecounter - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 9:37 pm:
Hynes-Adam
alexi-Kirk
- Rambler - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 9:42 pm:
I was very pessimistic about Quinn as I went out on the near NW side this past weekend. However, plenty of apathy and ignorance around. With the traditional organizations able to pull out voters, the black vote, and many suburbanites who would vote for Hynes pulling a GOP ballot this time, PQ’s still got a chance. My gut tells me it will be Hynes, though. Also, Alexi, Turner, Kelly, Preckwinkle & Berrios.
Also, my history with Russ Stewart going back 30 years is he’s “prediction-challenged.”
- UI Chancellor - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 10:11 pm:
Gov Dem: Hynes
Gov GOP: McKenna, by less than 1%
Senate: Alexi, Kirk
Lt. Gov: Cohen, Murphy
Cook Pres: Preckwinkle by a large margin
- illinois democrat - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 10:54 pm:
Hynes and brady (Gov)
Cohen and murphy (Lt Gov)
Hoffman and Kirk (Sen)
Oberman and Rutherford (treas)
Miller and Topinka (comp)
Shimkus by a 85-15 margin in CD 19
- T.J. - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 11:03 pm:
Surprised there aren’t more predictions for Plummer. Murphy’s the favorite, but I don’t think it’s a done deal.
- Roy Slade - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 11:04 pm:
Wow. If this election was just a week ago, it was probably completely different. Now, it is close, and down to which candidate turns out their voters.
Senate: Alexi holds on barely (then will get gutted by the media in the fall). Kirk wins easily.
Gov: I think Quinn wins a close one- less than two point victory. Last week, Hynes peaked, I think. I think Dillard also wins by a point or two- and I think if the election was last week, it would be different. Had Ryan had any money, or guts to raise and spend the money, he would have held. I also think if it were next week, McKenna would probably pull ahead. Very close. But, I think the Thompson/ Edgar “old guys” win this for Dillard at the end.
Lt Gov- Murphy probably holds on…if it were next week, plummer wins. On the Democratic side, it won’t stun me if Link wins…just based on simple name ID.
- votecounter - Monday, Feb 1, 10 @ 11:54 pm:
So everyone here is saying the tea partiers are a big zero? They will have nothing to do with the outcome in the GOP primary?
We will see! To me you guys are whistling past the graveyard literally!!!
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 12:45 am:
===So everyone here is saying the tea partiers are a big zero?===
Who said that?
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 2, 10 @ 9:09 am:
===So everyone here is saying the tea partiers are a big zero?===
Who said that? –
A tea partier. They thrive on anger and perceived sleights.