Weirdness
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller
What the heck does that say? UPDATE: Here are some Governor Blagojevich quotes from today’s press conference (courtesy of the Carterville Courier staff):
(Photo Credit: Devin Miller)
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What, no Keyes endorsement?
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller State Rep. Beth Coulson has an “R” behind her name, she sits on the Republican side of the House, votes with the GOP caucus for leadership. The trouble is, her district leans heavily Democratic. The Democrats have been trying to inform voters all season that Coulson is really a Republican, but Coulson has complained that the Democrats are just being mean. One of my subscribers received some Coulson lit in the mail today. I have some excerpts below. Sorry about the size, but I couldn’t make them any smaller. The first has her with the ever-popular Barack Obama, who, in reality, has endorsed Coulson’s Democratic opponent. This next mailer features Governor Rod Blagojevich, complete with a helpful quote from the Democratic leader. She even features Attorney General Lisa Madigan in the Blagojevich piece. As one Republican cracked today, “Coulson gives RINOs a bad name.” (A RINO, for those of you who don’t know, is a Republican In Name Only.) More later this weekend.
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Hmmm
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller This is an interesting development….
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Cautionary tale
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Archpundit has been on the story of the alleged “bomb scare” at Alan Keyes’ check-opening office. First check the background. Then, his follow-up, which he calls: “A story of caution, not bombs.”
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Money
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller From the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s The Race is On blog: Gambling interests have given at least $387K since July 1. The biggest giver is Alton Gaming, operator of the Alton Belle Casino, at $140K. Richard Duchossois and his relatives and associated businesses, including Arlington Park, have given $77,615, while Harrah’s shows $62,700. The Racing Association of Illinois, operator of Balmoral Racing Club, shows $34K. Established casinos dominate the giving, but Rosemont Mayor Donald E Stephens’ committee has given $13,500 to Springfield-related committees (as opposed to the $10K he gave to Cook County committees).
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Operation Save Forby
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Governor Rod Blagojevich was down in southern Illinois today to announce a multi-million-dollar clean coal initiative and help state Sen. Gary Forby’s campaign. The governor heaped praise on the appointed incumbent, who is in a tough re-election race. My brother was there (he owns a couple of papers in the region). “It was ‘Gary Forby Day,’” was how Devin described it. UPDATE: From comments section comes this valuable insight: As unpopular as Blagojevich is in Southern Illinois, this may blow up in Forby’s face, $15 million dollars or not.
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Althoff goes up
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Sen. Pamela Althoff (R-McHenry) has bought Chicago broadcast TV time. No definite word yet on the buy’s size, but rumor has it at $200K. Let’s see, Althoff and Patrick Ouimet are up. Sen. Pat Welch is on the air, as is his GOP opponent Gary Dahl. Morris Republican House candidate Doug Hayse has a tiny TV buy. Can anyone remember a time when this many state legislative candidates have run Chicago television ads? Usually, it’s just one race a cycle, if that.
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Deluged
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller I wrote this morning about how voters in Phil Crane’s district are being bombarded with mail and phone calls. This story is from the NorthWest Herald: “This is just ridiculous,” said Kathy Lawrence of McHenry.
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Voter Leave Law
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Maybe because I work for myself, and I always voted after work at my previous jobs, I didn’t know this. Employees in Illinois are entitled to two hours of leave to vote, but they must apply for leave before Election Day and employers may specify the time during the day that leave can be taken. (10 ILCS 5/17‑15) (from Ch. 46, par. 17‑15) More state election leave laws at TimeToVote.net
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Oh, yeah, I want one
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller This yard sign was spotted near Sullivan. If someone could get me one of these, I’d be very appreciative.
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Crane Money
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller The NRCC just dumped $250,000 worth of TV ads into Congressman Phil Crane’s campaign today. The latest estimate I’ve heard about the total spent by all interests in that campaign between the middle of this week and this coming Monday will be something like $3 million. Wow.
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QUOTE OF THE WEEK
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller OneMan completely sums up the Keyes campaign while making fun of one of its testimonials from Rush Limbaugh. Rush is quoted in Keyes’ new TV ad as saying, “In your heart you know he’s right.” The Republican OneMan’s take on Keyes: “In your guts you know he’s nuts.”
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Friday Morning Wrap-up
Friday, Oct 29, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller We lead today with a State Journal-Register story written by Doug Finke about how the state may have to give the federal government a whole bunch of money. Oops. Federal auditors contend Illinois was overpaid $140 million in Medicaid reimbursements, and they want the money back. Read the whole thing. A story you might want to avoid is the Tribune’s south suburban legislative race article, which is just unbelievably weak. Whatever. It’s reporting like that which has given me a such a good living, so I won’t complain too much. A better Trib story is the profile of House Speaker Denny Hastert’s race against a fiesty challenger. You’d have to be living under a rock the last year to miss the presidential and vice presidential races. But the campaign of the man two heartbeats from the presidency has hardly registered–particularly outside his staunchly Republican district, which starts in Chicago’s outer suburbs on the western edge of DuPage County and stretches through farmland almost to the Mississippi River. Moving along, Illinois Leader co-founder Brian Timpone (an old buddy of mine from when he was the House GOP spokesman) has a new online newsletter in the Metro East that rips the trial lawyers a new one on a daily basis. A recent story lays out which individuals and firms have been contributing to, and on behalf of, Democratic Supreme Court candidate Gordon Maag. Randall Bono, a powerful asbestos lawyer and former Madison County Judge, has dug into his pockets again donating another $200,000 to the newly formed Justice for All political action committee aimed at helping Illinois Supreme Court candidate Gordon E. Maag. It’s worth a look, especially these days. The Daily Southtown has a piece today on Barack Obama stumping in GOP territory. Obama, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, dropped behind enemy lines for a Democratic rally in Frankfort, a staunchly Republican suburb where Democrats often feel outnumbered. The Southtown also has an AP story about the Statehouse shooter being indicted. Chief Circuit Judge Robert Eggers announced at an afternoon court hearing that Derek W. Potts faces nine counts, including charges of first-degree murder, burglary and several gun violations.
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Oh, dear God, NOOOOO!!!
Thursday, Oct 28, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller I guess we should have seen this coming. With doctors fleeing Illinois because of sky-rocketing insurance rates and out-of-control lawsuits, an ailing “Flippy†the Dolphin suffered alone in dry-dock today, unable to carry on his tireless crusade to understand why Melissa Bean opposes tax relief. Maybe we can still save Flipper by all clapping our hands and saying together: “I believe in anthropomorphic Republican dolphins. I believe!” I get the feeling this is not my finest moment.
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The carnage continues
Thursday, Oct 28, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Rockford just can’t catch a break. Workers at the Amerock Corporation in Rockford have been told they will be out of a job in 60 days. When will it end?
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Interesting numbers
Thursday, Oct 28, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Fabrizio-McLaughlin massaged some poll numbers in an interesting way this week. The polling firm surveyed 800 likely voters in 12 battleground states earlier this week. The respondent selection, “was at random within predetermined geographic units to reflect actual electoral vote allotment to each state.” The 12 states selected were: CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, WI. When they totaled everything up, President Bush edged Sen. Kerry by two-tenths of a percentage point. However, when the firm weighted the results to reflect 2000 presidential exit polls Kerry was ahead by 3.5 points. The firm also weighted to reflect Census results and Kerry was ahead by 5.2 percent. The turnout result is the more important set of numbers, I think, because it reflects past voting patterns and not just simple demographic makeup. To the charts… First, the “raw” trend lines since the summer. (Also notice how Ralph Nader’s support is dropping): Now, the latest battleground poll with the turnout and Census weighting: And here’s the chart that shows the difference between the original, raw data and the exit poll and Census modified numbers. I talked with Tony Fabrizio this afternoon. I wondered whether the exit poll and Census numbers were for those 12 states, and he said they were. Fabrizio also agrees that the exit poll numbers are the more valid guage of what may happen next week. Does this mean that Bush is cooked? Not according to Fabrizio. What’s really needed is a state-by-state survey with the FabMac massage. Fabrizio thinks that Bush might pick up some of the states listed above that Al Gore won four years ago, specifically, those with low numbers of minorities.
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It’s on
Thursday, Oct 28, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Links to things inside the State Board of Elections website don’t always work (the Board’s web guys aren’t people friendly), so just in case that one doesn’t function, this is what the link is to: Patrick Ouimet for State Senate The A-1 was filed at 11:55:44 AM. As I told subscribers in this morning’s extra, the game is now totally on in the 32nd Senate District. Ouimet will be running Chicago broadcast TV this weekend. You have to subscribe for more details. The next move belongs to the Senate Republicans.
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The further adventures of Flippy the Dolphin
Thursday, Oct 28, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Here’s a pretty good article about the Phil Crane vs. Melissa Bean race, but it tells us nothing about Flippy the Dolphin. The Palatine Countryside fills the void: Crane supporters have called Bean’s position on taxes “inconsistent.” Saturday a person dressed as “Flippy” the dolphin stood in Lake Zurich’s Paulus Park parking lot with other protesting Republicans calling Bean a “flip-flopper” as she, Durbin and Obama rallied her troops. More on Flippy’s adventures from a Wednesday GOP press release:
How’d you like to have, “2004: Played the part of ‘Flippy the Dolphin,’” on your resumé? I bet that shows up as “Political Operative” instead. I wonder what they ended up doing with the flowers?
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Thursday morning wrap-up, Part 2
Thursday, Oct 28, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Alan Keyes’ denial, or dishonesty, about his upcoming thumping borders on the pathological: Media polls like the one showing him significantly trailing Democratic opponent Barack Obama are rarely accurate, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes said Wednesday. Yeah, about 20 to 30 percent of them. Keyes also had a few not-so-nice words about Illinois reporters: “I have not been impressed with the standard of journalism in the state of Illinois,” he said. “I think it’s a disgrace to the people of this state that you all don’t do your jobs very well. You’ve got work to do because you’re not up to snuff.” Any major party candidate who is trailing his opponent by 40 to 50 points less than a week before election day has no standing to tell anyone else that they suck at their jobs. Here’s another media mention of the governor’s recent appearance in Elgin that barely drew a crowd: Last week, the state’s most powerful Democrat, Gov. Rod Blagojevich, visited a county Democratic fund-raiser in Elgin, the first visit of his administration. File this one under Oops: Some state workers at the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation are not only losing their jobs - they’re also in danger of becoming victims of identity theft. Meanwhile, the State Journal-Register didn’t post Bernie Schoenburg’s column on its website this morning.
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Thursday Morning Wrap-up
Thursday, Oct 28, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Here are the results of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll for the US Senate race that I wrote about today. You’ll have to go to the Centre for Public Opinion & Democracy for more info on the SLPD’s presidential results. Here’s that goofy Daily Herald story I wrote about today. The Daily Southtown has a piece today about Congressman Jerry Weller being booed at last night’s debate with Democrat Tari Renner. Renner drew applause from the hometown crowd while Weller, at one point, got booed. Tensions grew after the debate when Renner supporters tried to block a Weller aide and Weller’s fiancee from leaving through a side door. Tensions are always high at these events, but there’s no excuse for shoving an old lady. “Miscommunication.” Right. I’d make a wisecrack like, “Just because he married the daughter of a Latin American dictator doesn’t mean Weller should start strongarming Illinoisans,” but I think I’ll just let it pass. They missed some late entries yesterday, but here’s part of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s latest report: With a week to go, three races in each chamber have crossed the million-dollar mark, and one race is knocking on $2 million. The 59th Senate District has drawn the most money, with the two candidates combining to show $1.9 million available for the general election. Following behind them are Sullivan/Ernst (47th) at $1.4 million and Welch/Dahl (38th) at $1.1 million. The Tribune has a decent feature on the Capparelli-McAuliffe House race, and a story about DuPage Republicans fending off the Democrats. If you just didn’t get enough of Tuesday’s Senate debate, here’s the video and the transcript. The very best thing about Alan Keyes’ candidacy is his desire to share every word he says with the world. Because of that egotism, we have complete historical records of events like this week’s debate. Unfortunately for Keyes, those transcripts hurt him more than they helped.
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Cosgrove Interviewed
Thursday, Oct 28, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller Personal PAC’s Terry Cosgrove was interviewed this week by the Windy City Times. Read it if you want his take on some legislative races, but I thought the end was the most interesting part:
They call every female in the districts. That’s a big reason why Personal PAC has been so effective over the years. They really work it and they are super-organized. And, yes, that’s “Hanoi Jane” in the photo.
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