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Rauschenberger tosses hat into ring

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller


ABC7 News learned that Elgin state senator Steve Rauschenberger is a willing possibility to lead the [Illinois Republican] party back into battle in 2006.

“I think the Republican Party has got a search to do for its new set of leaders. I’d like to be part of that search. I intend to demonstrate as much leadership as possible and I am very interested in 2006,” said Sen. Steve Rauschenberger (R) Elgin.

Rauschenberger — who finished second in last spring’s primary for the U.S. Senate — says he has ruled out another run for that office. He agrees that part of his appeal in a possible run for governor is his ability to communicate with both the conservative and moderate wings of a still-divided Illinois GOP.

The last time Rauschenberger demonstrated leadership was when he helped bring Alan Keyes to Illinois, which is why I wouldn’t be too sure that the moderate wing has listened much to Rauschenberger lately. And, frankly, aside from the fawning newspaper endorsements, he ran a pretty lousy US Senate campaign.

If SJR had finished second, as the article claimed, and not the reality of a somewhat distant third behind 2nd-place finisher and notorious illegal immigrant basher Jim Oberweis, then Rauschenberger would have been the easy choice to replace the club-happy Jack Ryan and take on Barack Obama.

Somewhere along the way Rauschenberger apparently concluded that if he couldn’t make the run, then Alan Keyes - now known as the 27 percent embarrassment - would be a dandy alternative.

  5 Comments      


The Kerry map

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

As this map clearly shows, if it wasn’t for Chicago and suburban Cook County, Illinois would be a very red state indeed. The blue K’s are on counties that John Kerry won yesterday (because it’s a whole lot easier than putting a red W and winning percentages on 87 counties).


Click the map for a larger image.

  Comments Off      


Negativity

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

I still say that Rep. Ricca Slone (D-Peoria Heights) dug her own political grave by being… Ricca Slone. But a Peoria-area subscriber has a different take on what turned out to be a super-close contest.

The house “professionals” always make the same mistake in Peoria.  They did it back in 1994 against [former state Rep. Jay] Ackerman.  Negative does not sell well here - especially on abortion.  This isn’t Chicago and it isn’t southern Illinois. 

But you should have heard the radio ads.  They just made people uncomfortable.  Using the words “rape and incest” and they would play the ad back to back!!  It really put people off.  I heard women calling on the radio complaining that they were upset about having to explain to their kids what those were.  Every time those ads played she lost 10 votes.  I truly believe that had they not run ANY ads the strength of the district would have carried it.  The tone of the ads motivated people against her.  I’ve never seen anything like it. The more money they spent the worse it got.  I understand the district office was inundated with phone calls every time the ad ran. 

Again, I think this loss is mostly Slone’s fault for alienating so many of her constituents, but these points are worth considering.

Negatives don’t work everywhere, especially when they are cartoonish. Many of the attacks on Rep. Bill Grunloh’s Republican opponent were too over the top to be believable, as was the early mail against Rep. Beth Coulson (although, I will say to my dying day that Coulson protested way too much about a couple of silly mailers). The super-harsh negative TV attacks on Republican Supreme Court candidate Lloyd Karmeier obviously didn’t work. A terribly negative and completely false attack on Democratic Rep. Careen Gordon fatally backfired on the House Republicans.

Of course, all of those candidates and their campaigns had numerous other flaws which led to their downfalls yesterday. I’m not trying to blame losses solely on negative ads. They worked very effectively for Grunloh’s opponent David Reis and most of the other winners yesterday. I do think, however that too often a bludgeon is used when a scalpel would more than suffice.

  9 Comments      


Where the hardcore lives

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

The ten counties that Alan Keyes won yesterday are marked with a dark red “K.” Counties where he took between 45 and 50 percent of the vote are labeled with the pinkish “K.”

The counties that Barack Obama won with more than 65 percent are marked with the big blue “O.” (Click the map for a larger image)

You can’t miss that big cluster of red K’s in the southeastern part of the state. That’s much of the area represented by Rep. Bill Grunloh (D-Effingham). Little wonder that the appointed Democrat got less than 38 percent of the vote yesterday.

  5 Comments      


TURNED INTO A NAIL-BITER

Wednesday, Nov 3, 2004 - Posted by Rich Miller

The AP has Rep. Ricca Slone losing to Aaron Schock by just 230 votes, with all precincts counted.

  3 Comments      


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