Poll problem
Sunday, Apr 10, 2005 - Posted by Rich Miller
I can’t see how they can claim broad support for a concept if they word their question like this:
Backers of a plan to raise the state income tax, expand the sales tax and lower property taxes for schools presented a poll last week showing pretty strong support for the idea. The poll showed 69 percent of respondents either strongly or mildly favored the concept.
Here’s how the poll worded the tax hike part of the question: “The increased state funding for schools and other services would be funded by expanding the sales tax to include consumer services and a 2 percent increase in income taxes for the highest 40 percent of income earners.” That’s one way of phrasing it.
The state income tax rate for individuals is 3 percent. Under the tax swap plan, the rate would go to 5 percent. The tax rate goes up by 2 points, but the actual hit to your income taxes is 67 percent. Also, the top 40 percent of income earners means anyone making over about $50,000 a year.
So the other way of phrasing the question is: “The increased state funding for schools and other services would be funded by … a 67 percent increase in income taxes for people earning over $50,000.” Wonder what the response would be to that question?
A “two percentage point increase” would have been acceptable wording, although still a bit misleading. When they said “2 percent increase,” it completely undermined their results.
- Rich Miller - Sunday, Apr 10, 05 @ 4:14 pm:
IDENTITY: Drew Hibbard
COMMENT: I think it’s interesting how they left out the fact that if the income tax is raised on the top 40 percent of income earners, it would be raised on every else in the state too because we have the constitutional flat tax. The fact is, it’s everyone that has to pay it or nobody pays it. Respondents would be more apt to say yes if they see those with higher incomes taking the brunt of the cost instead of themselves taking it.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 11, 05 @ 3:20 pm:
FROM: Randall Sherman
COMMENT: As I see it, part of the problem with any poll on this issue is that the proposal deals with multiple tax changes. If you favor some parts of the plan but oppose other portions, how do you respond?
>I would be among those who would face that situation. I support an increase in the state income tax rate, provided it is coupled with an increase in the standard exemption. (This would shift the burden of the increased income tax to those in the higher incomes.) I also have no objection with coupling the income tax hike to property tax relief.
>However, I strongly oppose any attempt to hike the regressive state sales tax. The idea behind shifting the tax burden from property to income taxes is to create a less regressive system. Increasing the sales tax would defeat that effort. Furthermore, given the fact that sales taxes in Chaicago and a number of other cities are already near the highest in this country (while our income tax rate is the lowest in the nation for states with a single individual tax rate), any increase in the sales tax may simply drive businesses out of Illinois, causing additional economic hardship to communities near the state line in any direction.
>RANDALL SHERMAN
>Secretary/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government
>Chicago
- FightforJustice - Monday, Apr 11, 05 @ 5:56 pm:
Thanks to Rich for catching this poll manipulation. Randall makes some good points.