Duckworth analysis
Thursday, Dec 1, 2005 - Posted by Rich Miller
I have one big quibble with this piece from the Hotline Blog, which I’ll discuss after the excerpt:
Two campaign sources tell the Hotline that it looks very likely that Tammy Duckworth (D), a triple amputee who sustained critical injuries as a Black Hawk pilot in the war in Iraq, will be running in the IL-06 race against state Sen. Peter Roskam (R). […]
The district borders Emanuel’s — and he views this race as a key chance to pick up a seat that GOPer Henry Hyde has held since 1974. It also borders Speaker Dennis Hastert’s (R) district, as well. Assuming Duckworth enters, this could easily be one of the most competitive and compelling House matchups — a talented, aspiring Republican state senator against a genuine war hero — with members of both parties’ leadership right next door.
The district leans Republican, but it’s clearly a swing district that Dems can pick up. Obama won easily here, and Bush only won with 53% of the vote in ‘04. Duckworth’s policy views are largely a mystery. But she is likely to take a more favorable view of the war in Iraq than some of the current Dem leadership in the House.
As a guest of Sen. Dick Durbin for President Bush’s 2005 State of the Union Address, she said: “Getting to see this ritual of democracy in person tonight is not only a fantastic experience, it really brings home what we were over in Iraq fighting for — this country and the freedoms that go with it.”
Duckworth can’t talk about the war because she hasn’t been released yet, but I don’t think anyone should read too much into this yet. We’ll know soon.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 8:42 pm:
Well, given that Axelrod, Jasculca, Giangreco and others already are on board, more or less, it’s just a matter of time.
She told the papers back at State of the Union that she wanted to get her new legs and get back to flying.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 8:43 pm:
Snark Warning!
What a marvel of democracy that the Hill completely neglected the three other declared candidates in the race — two on the Dems’ side and one on the GOP’s.
Talk about handicapping a horse race. Nice piece of journalism there boys.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 8:45 pm:
What a marvel of democracy that the Hill
Oops, had Hill on the mind rather than National Journal — same diff.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 8:46 pm:
This was a great read on what Duckworth went through:
http://www.dailyherald.com/search/searchstory.asp?id=126142
That paper has been doing a Wounds of War series every month or two, so I imagine this one was in the works for a while…way before she even was mentioned as a candidate.
- iwearshoes2 - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 8:53 pm:
This post has been removed by the author.
- iwearshoes2 - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 8:55 pm:
From a campaign standpoint…It will be VERY difficult for Roskam to even remotely question her abilities to perform the job without looking like a pig. Should be one of the most interesting races of the year.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 9:42 pm:
While I imagine Roskam would have preferred another opponent, I just don’t see this woman as a realistic threat.
The media loves to fawn over such “Rock Star” candidates, but experience shows that voters tend to be much less enthusiastic. I remember back in the 80s when Phil Rock recruited some Olympic runner against Frank Watson — the guy got a lot of publicity but Watson killed him. I also remember a race where the candidate was the brother of a prominent homicide victim, active in the anti-gun movement. That one crashed and burned too.
The media loves celebrities, but voters want someone who will represent them.
The left hates Roskam because he’s articulate, conservative and not scary to mainstream voters. The irony is that the liberal Dems may end up helping Roskam, because if he wins big it could put him in the national spotlight — their greatest fear.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 9:43 pm:
As someone who has been against this war from before the beginning, I very much resent being put in the position of supporting a veteran of this heinous war, regardless of the horrific injuries she has endured.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 9:54 pm:
Anon 9:42 - you’re probably right that Roskam won’t have to worry about this race, but you’re wrong if you think it’s only the left that hates him.
I know many republicans who won’t be sad to see him gone from Springpatch, he’s not real nice sometimes.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 10:31 pm:
I say we wait on the guessing game of where Duckworth is on any issue - let alone the war - and find out whether she actually has positions, which hopefully she’ll focus on when and if she chooses to announce.
Meanwhile, Christine Cegelis, as we all know, is a proven candidate (who got 44% on a shoestring last year) who knows whereof she speaks on a great multitude of topics. She also knows & lives in the district, and her name recognition is high. I’m not sure this installed-from-DC candidate will have quite enough credibility in IL-06 to beat that.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 10:46 pm:
The shoestring budget is part of the problem.
It isn’t as if the writing hasn’t been on the wall. The 44% thing? Kerry was no one’s idea of a good candidate here - and he beat it. And if anyone expects Roskam to sit on his duff and rely on a couple of cable ads as did Hyde - they’re crazy.
As for residency and beliefs — were any of you asking these questions attempting to bring aboard the Philadelphian Vallas or the reclusive Eisendrath? Just wondering.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 10:55 pm:
i assure you cegelis’ name ID is not high.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 10:58 pm:
Did you say Giangreco’s involved?
Look out. Could be the kiss of death. He steered Dawn Netsch to a 30% showing in ‘94 and has a bad track record in Illinois. Amazing how some of these consultants continually lose and end up getting hired.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 11:04 pm:
Cegelis has nowhere to go but up from that 44%. You run once to get known, twice to win. So maybe Roskam will provide a more formidable challenge when he takes on the Congresswoman in 2008. That is, assuming that his pal Tom DeLay hasn’t completely dragged down the entire GOP by that time.
Cegelis could supercede her fundraising total from her entire 2004 campaign by the end of this month. That’s without any help from the DCCC or the other heavy hitters. Once she gets past the primary, the bright lights that will shine on the general will take care of that issue.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 11:04 pm:
Aaah…and there’s anon 10:58 - part of the “don’t know what the hay I’m talking about brigade…”
Matters little — nothing gets the Cegelis accolytes’ dander up like talk about an opponent. This post will be lucky to last the night.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 11:07 pm:
11:04, that’s one of the greatest combinations of faulty logic and flights of fancy I’ve witnessed on this board in some time.
Kudos!
- Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 05 @ 11:30 pm:
I think the point is that any discussion of a Roskam-Duckworth race is premature at best and disingenuous at worst. As for Cegelis’ name recognition, she’s the one candidate that just about every IL-06 voter will have seen on the ballot at least once. And she’s gotten more votes in an election than Roskam ever has. So she’s got that going for her.
- Anonymous - Friday, Dec 2, 05 @ 1:09 am:
Anon 9:42 wrote, “The left hates Roskam because he’s articulate, conservative and not scary to mainstream voters. The irony is that the liberal Dems may end up helping Roskam, because if he wins big it could put him in the national spotlight — their greatest fear.”
Hates?
Methinks you’re projecting your own feelings of either self-loathing or “hatred” of the left.
I don’t know any progressives who hate Roskam; but I sure know plenty who think his far-right policies and plans are not only wrong for Illinois but (as Tom DeLay and George Bush have proven) wrong for America. Just ask anyone who lost everything in Katrina’s wake, while waiting for FEMA to simply do its stated job, what “compassionate” conservatism ever did to make their lives better.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Dec 2, 05 @ 3:28 am:
Anon 9:42 - That Olympic runner’s name was Bob Diver, and he didn’t lose because he couldn’t run fast enough, he had other issues.
As for Duckworth, let’s wait to judge her until a) she anounces, b) we actually hear where she stands on the issues, and c) we see what kind of a campaign she can put together.
If Cegelis or Scott are better candidates, they’ll win the primary. That’s democracy.
- Mohammad Wong - Friday, Dec 2, 05 @ 11:06 am:
Yellow Dog, don’t go bringing your fancy logic and sensibility to this discussion.
- Anonymous - Friday, Dec 2, 05 @ 1:41 pm:
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.